-- No Collins Paper --

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Well, nothing is ever simple in the Ivory-bill world... Mike Collins is announcing that his paper, "Flight Mechanics of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker," has been "pulled" from publication at PLoS. His brief explanation is at his website (12/16 entry).
I'd heard about certain problems that had arisen, and that publication would be delayed at least a minimum of two-to-three weeks from last Friday, and I could take an educated guess about some of what transpired, but since I don't know with certainty, won't speculate here. Nothing in this arena much surprises anymore.
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-- Having It Both Ways --

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What the prior article on population dynamics calls to mind is the most trenchant argument skeptics make in the Ivory-bill debate. Can a creature have relatively few sightings over 60 years, with no sightings followed up by photographic documentation or definitive confirmation, and in fact still exist... OR, can a creature at very low population density successfully carry on reproductively for decades?... (The answer to both questions, singly, is indubitably yes.)
But the rub comes in combining the two questions (or as skeptics would say, 'trying to have it both ways' --- can there BOTH be so few IBWOs that they're rarely encountered, and yet enough to be reproductively viable for 60 years) --- the numbers of Ivory-bills must be just great enough (whatever that threshold is) to have at least maintained population stasis over decades (more recently they could be either increasing, or decreasing), and yet scarce enough to help account for the overall paucity of sightings and difficulty of photography. It is a somewhat fine line and balancing act, but yet once again, given the habitat and habits and history of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (an upper canopy and cavity-dwelling flying creature of deep forest) it is much more plausible with this species than it would be for many others --- indeed, it is easily as plausible, as the notion of every single sighting since 1950 being written off as a 'mistake.' And it is funny how often in nature if something is possible, it occurs (sort of the inverse of 'Murphy's Law').

Finally, in another "stay-tuned" story, Mark Bailey sends along this report of supposedly-extirpated pumas in Alabama.

Addendum: Mark seems to have taken this story down; I assume this means its authenticity (which he was trying to check on) did not check out; or if he re-posts it, I'll mention it again here.
Addendum II : Mark confirms now he has determined picture and story to be a hoax.
He now has this explanatory post up on the matter.
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-- A View To The Past --

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Speculative, but interesting post here, from a more paleontological viewpoint, about causes of extinction/decline in various species (including the Ivory-bill, which may have been "doomed 12,000 years ago").
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-- IBWO Population Dynamics --

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Here an open-access published paper using population dynamics/stochastics to argue for how a small population of Ivory-bills or certain other large woodpeckers could persist for many years with few human encounters.

The variables in such an analysis will always be difficult to precisely define or measure (which goes for most ecology/field biology work) and such a study must be viewed with a grain of salt --- I'm sure skeptics will find much to quibble with, including certain assumptions made. And I'm certainly not competent to judge the specific technical mathematics involved, but I don't think there's anything overly profound in the general conclusions reached here, part of which read as follows:

"...based on our model, an initial population size of 5 females would have ensured likely persistence through modern times if annual demographic rates remained at least moderate, i.e., ≥ 1.1 recruited females/adult female and an adult survival rate ≥ 0.8, and their variances remained at most moderate, i.e., ≤ 0.04 for recruited females per adult female and ≤ 0.016 for adult survival rate, (Appendices 2–4). Second, if there were 30 or more females, then the population would likely have persisted despite a relatively strong Allee effect, as long as variance in survival was at most moderate and either survival or fecundity was high (i.e., 1.65 recruited females per adult female or an adult survival rate of 0.9; Appendices 2–4)."

Many years ago I did some simple common-sense paper-and-pencil calculations based on about 24 Ivory-bills starting in the 1940's (at the upper end of Tanner's estimate for the population then, but several folks think Tanner was too conservative), which convinced me that that number of IBWOs could easily have achieved population stasis for many decades (and still be with us), prior to either increasing in numbers or dying out.

In a similar vein, a related blog-post here 3 years back, started with an initial population of just 16 birds to make some points:

http://ivorybills.blogspot.com/2005/09/ivory-bills-by-numbers.html

The simple point being, under a variety of circumstances, small populations of vertebrate creatures can hang on for a very long time (not growing in numbers substantially, but not dying out either) if certain minimal conditions are met.
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-- IBWO Miscellany --

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'nuther article on the Arkansas search, headed up by Alan Mueller, getting underway this Saturday.
Still have heard no official details on at least 3 other states where I assume there will be searches this winter. And (somewhat incredibly) still no official release of a summary report from USFW for last search season.
Cornell lists their 2008-9 Search/Recovery Team here (mostly familiar names/faces from past searches, but also a few new names added).

In the entertainment category, a fictionalized play based on the the Ivory-bill wins a competition here.
And trailer for Scott Crocker's "Ghost Bird" documentary movie (January release) here.

Not expecting much in the way of news for at least next few of weeks.
While skeptics continue to await a photo or video of a bird that can be definitively ID'd as an Ivory-bill, I on-the-other-hand, continue to await photos or video of a leucistic Pileated with white dorsal wing patches that truly mimic the wings of an Ivory-bill, as the only really likely explication for skeptics to hang their hat on for many of the IBWO claims over decades....
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-- Sufjan Stevens Song --

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Sufjan Stevens' song, "Lord God Bird" put to video on YouTube:



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-- Sunday Contemplation --

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The actual probability that the Ivory-billed Woodpecker exists is 100%... OR... 0%, since it either does or it doesn't. When I tell folks I view the probability of its survival somewhere around 70-80%, I invariably hear from some who say they've seen it and that I am WRONG because they know with 100% probability it does; and of course I hear from skeptical others, who scold me for voicing such hope, proclaiming, equally assuredly, the probability is 0% (for now I'll stick with my own numbers). Unfortunately, even if the species does survive, the probability that they will be documented definitively to the satisfaction of all is yet some other number. And then there's always the thorny issue of whether documenting them is even in the birds' best interest or not. In rummaging through my files I find more words I wrote (a tad dramatically) back in 2002 following the unsuccessful Van Remsen search in Louisiana:

"...The forest holds her secrets well. And we humans, despite vaunted wisdom and technology, are really ‘babes in the woods’ when we enter the domains of other creatures. In remote woodland we are bumbling clods while any remaining Ivorybills, having honed their woodsy intelligence over millenia, likely bear a genius I.Q. So I'm not surprised that hundreds have failed to find the bird; nor even that the most organized and strategized search of all time in Jan.-Feb. of this year came up empty-handed. The 2002 Zeiss-sponsored expedition planned for months before sending 6 highly qualified searchers and modern equipment into Pearl River for 30 days to seek out the birds. They received widespread news coverage, from "The Wall Street Journal " and "New York Times" to NPR, but in the end could only report the same sorts of ‘possible signs’ of the birds that others had glimpsed/heard.

Christopher Cokinos spent ten years researching and writing about six bird species wiped out by Man, including the Ivorybill, for his 2000 book "Hope Is The Thing With Feathers." The subject matter drove him to major depression. What humans have done, and continue to do, to other species, is a sorrowful tale. I do not wish to proceed on false hope, but am even less willing to give up too easily on a creature as grand as the Ivorybill.

If the Ivorybill is ever found thousands may stampede to view it, and managing such a ‘mob’ of birders, biologists, naturalists, photographers, newsmen, curiosity-seekers, could be an insurmountable task. So for its own sake, in my more rational moments, I often hope the bird is NOT found, lest it be hounded to death by humans, after having made it this far. But I must admit in my ideal dream-world, the Ivorybill IS found... by ME! --- a pair... with a nest!! They raise young. I watch them for weeks and take hundreds of photos before they depart. Then I show the world my pictures and prove to the naysayers that the species survives after-all; that only ignorance and naivete allowed “experts” to prematurely write the species off; that our science and academia lacks deep understanding of the natural world. We have sacrificed intuition for cold rationality; replaced respect for nature with exploitation of her. Wake up I say and listen to the world out there; listen to the forest’s pleas... Listen... to the forests... please!
And then I die, never breathing a word of where I found the birds or when or how; nary a hint; leaving behind me a trail of wide-eyed seekers, achingly frustrated, panting in my dust, pleading for information. I die giving the Ivorybills the last full ounce of my respect. And though I know it is too little too late, they and their kind deserve nothing less."

And that is the real dilemma... any Ivory-bills (and many other creatures) that hang on, need more than we as a species, are likely able or willing, to bestow them. In the short-run, with concerted effort, we can temporarily postpone certain outcomes, preserve patches of habitat, do some feel-good conservation, even captively breed California Condors and the like... but long-term... well, I don't even like to think about it.

(However, one of the greatest scholars in this arena, E.O. Wilson, is far more optimistic than I about the future.)
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-- '08-'09 Arkansas Search Commencing --

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Article here (or here) on the upcoming scaled-back search for Ivory-bills in Arkansas this winter, headed up by wildlife biologist Alan Mueller of previous endeavors. Happily surprised to read there will be 26 volunteers and 3 "expert field biologists" involved --- didn't actually expect that many participants this go-around. (And presumably there will also be a 'Mobile Team' afoot as well, mostly outside Arkansas.) As reported earlier, a $50,000 reward potentially awaits some lucky claimant...
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-- Bit More on Mississippi --

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Following up a bit on yesterday's post... Even though there hasn't been a documented sighting of an Ivory-bill in Mississippi in well over 60 years (although there were at least 13 unverified reports since 1944), based on the literature, I've long thought Mississippi one of the three most likely states to harbor the species (along with Florida and Louisiana). In his Ivory-bill book, Jerry Jackson spends more pages discussing the potential of Mississippi than any other state except for FL. and La.
There are many areas of interesting habitat in the state, and not only does the Mississippi River run the entire length of the state's western border, but internally there are many riverine/tributary systems which connect up to many wildlife refuges, rural forests, or bottomland/delta areas. Much (not all) of the state was part of the original historical distribution for the species and of course it is adjacent to Louisiana's original Singer Tract where Ivory-bills were last studied. Cornell's "Mobile Team" (as well as many others) has spoken especially favorably of the Pascagoula region in the southeast corner of the state. The state's southern end is also adjacent to Louisiana's Pearl River region, site for ongoing claims. Besides those areas, the Yazoo River Delta is probably the other most-commonly-cited search-worthy area, but there are plenty of other tracts that hold some potential, especially for dispersing young birds to hang out awhile before they search for more permanent homes and mates.
Bill Pulliam looked over the state's habitat using Terraserver a couple of years back and deduced some areas of possible interest as well --- see here (his state-by-state analysis begins here).
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-- Mississippi Searching --

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Brief article here on a pair searching areas of western-central Mississippi for the Lord God Bird.
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-- Just Passing It Along --

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Just passing along for anyone who may be interested:

Apparently, freelance writer Richard A. Lovett has an article in the October edition of Analog Magazine entitled,
"Here There be Dragons: The Ivory-Billed Woodpecker and Other Mysteries of an Explored Planet."
Analog is a long-standing, well-established science fiction magazine (that also publishes non-fiction), but other than that I'm not directly familiar with the author or article, so not endorsing it, just saying it's out there, FWIW.

Also, Mike Collins has made his pertinent videos of the last few years available here for download for burning onto dvd.
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-- Thanksgiving Eve --

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Around this time each year, I've traditionally done a Top 10 things I'm-thankful-for-post, so without further adieu and a tad hastily-contrived, ten things I be grateful for this holiday season:

10. Sarah Palin (for pretty much handing over the election to the Democrats on a platter)
9. Nature bloggers, who share with all of us their joy, interests, and personal slants on the natural world
8. Europe for not hating us anymore
7. political cartoonist Tom Toles (for always hitting the mark and making me smile)
6. computer geeks (who keep making this stuff user-friendly enough that the rest of us can play with it)
5. "Scrubs" reruns (for pure wackiness, an underappreciated commodity)
4. YouTube
3. Air America (radio)
2. 'True believers' everywhere
1. Barack Obama and Joe Biden (...needless to say)


Happy Holiday to all, and in these particularly rough times, may you yet find much to look upon with gratitude and appreciation.
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-- Just For Fun --

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Below a fun YouTube video relating to "awareness" (...hat tip to David Sibley who linked to this a month ago over at his blog):



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-- Even the House Sparrow Declining --

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Not directly related to the Ivory-bill story, but under the general heading of bird decline, even the 'lowly' House Sparrow is now affected. Recent severe decline in the species observed in the United Kingdom is given a possible explanation in this article pointing to insect decline in the UK as the culprit. (Of course, decline in food, consequent to decline in habitat, is a common explanation for IBWO decline as well.) The news of bird decline across the world over the last couple decades is truly staggering, and while it might be slowed slightly through human actions, is likely (I hate to say it) irreversible long-term.
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-- The Audacity of Hope... Indeed --

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For all who continue to 'keep the faith' just a few paragraphs I wrote over 8 years ago, after the Kulivan La. sighting, but well before all the Arkansas excitement (a personal paper):

"In the biological sciences what we don’t know still far exceeds what we do know, and what is mysterious far exceeds that which is understood. It is only our faith in our small scrap of knowledge that permits people to doubt the further existence of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. What we need in this case is to put more faith in our ignorance! --- to acknowledge in short that we know too little to draw firm conclusions.
Photographs we have of Ivory-bills show a creature so vital, so wild, so determined, as almost to belie the possibility of their vanishing from the face of the planet. The will to live, the urge to reproduce, are among the most compelling drives in nature, and no doubt the Ivory-billed Woodpecker possessed these as much as any creature (bird artist Eckelberry wrote of its “rigor” and its “almost frantic aliveness”, and Alexander Wilson noted its “noble and unconquerable spirit”), such that it would seek with all its energy, facility, and acumen to overcome Man’s trampling upon its home and somehow, somewhere, in some way, simply continue on out of our view, aloof to our intense curiosity.
Indeed, in the farther recesses of my intuition and imagination, where sunlight glimmers and woodland shadows dance, I can just hear its clarinet-like toot reverberating, while patches of white flash with every wingbeat like lightning bolts through a forest canopy, and the heart of this most majestic of North American birds beats wildly in defiance of both Mankind and probability. Some may call it wishful thinking, or sheer fantasy, or even simplemindedness on my part, but I simply call it hope... a hope which, like the bird itself clinging tightly to some remote unseen sweet gum tree, clings securely to the human mind and heart, until much more evidence than we currently possess demonstrates once-and-for-all this bird’s survival... or demise."

And 8 years later, strangely enough... I feel much the same.
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-- Mike Collins Paper --

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The perseverent Mike Collins, back in Virginia after another brief trip to the Pearl (La.), reports (11/20 entry on his website) that his paper on the flight mechanics of the Ivory-bill, as it relates to his videos from the Pearl, has been accepted for publication by PLoS (the Public Library of Science), the leading peer-reviewed open-access publisher --- no word on how soon.

I realize public-access publishing has its pluses and minuses, proponents and critics, and don't wish to debate that here. On the positive side this permits Mike's analytical work to reach a wider audience more quickly than would be the case with traditional publication. I wouldn't expect largely entrenched views on the subject matter to change much at this point, but congratulations to Mike on his persistence and steadfastness getting recognized.
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-- Wanted: Alive! --

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Looking a tad reminiscent of an old-timey 'dead or alive' poster this notice has gone up in parts of Arkansas, detailing the recent $50,000 reward offer for direct evidence of Ivory-bill presence (reported here on Nov. 8).
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-- And On It Goes --

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Sightings claims for Ivory-bills continually trickle in. I get a few directly via email each year, and Cornell or official agencies likewise get reports that are never shared on the internet. However, naturally, it is only those claims that do show up on the Web that create any buzz for discussion, the latest one being from a Louisiana hunter (as linked to in prior post comments, or now appearing on IBWO Researchers Forum as "34striker" or Mike Pratt). Too early to tell if his report will lead any further than dozens of other reports, but the one element that does intrigue me is that it emanates from the Three River WMA of Louisiana. The Three River and adjacent Red River WMAs constitute around 70,000 acres of habitat that I've long thought had interesting, but overlooked, IBWO potential. Moreover, though I don't recall any credible IBWO reports coming from there in the last 60 years, it is situated in-between other areas of La. and Mississippi that have produced reports. These WMAs are fairly well-trafficked by hunters and recreationalists, though am not certain how well the interior reaches of them are ever covered by birders.
...Won't be too long now before the leaves are off the trees and organized winter searches are fully underway.
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