-- In Time For Christmas... --

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Well, this is different...

A Colorado politician (and life-long birdwatcher) has self-published a novel (geared to young people) entitled "AVES: The Age Of Engagement," with the Ivory-billed Woodpecker as a principal character:

http://www.timescall.com/lifestyles/entertainment/ci_22191534/former-lafayette-mayor-chris-berry-releases-first-novel

The book is available through Amazon here:

http://www.amazon.com/AVES-The-Engagement-C-J-Berry/dp/1477437495

or through its own website here:

http://avesthebook.blogspot.com/

As long as I'm mentioning Ivory-bill novels, I'll re-mention Tom Gallant's "The Lord God Bird" from earlier in the year, which I did read and mostly enjoy (and reviewed HERE):

http://tinyurl.com/cwrkufr

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-- In the Shadow of Mason Spencer --

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Credibility….

When David Kulivan claimed an encounter with 2 Ivory-bills in the Louisiana woods in 1999, some doubters found his verbal/written reports TOO good… TOO on-the-mark… TOO accurate… in short, his details sounded TOO much like they were lifted out of a book instead of being a spontaneous, accurate recounting of what his eyes actually saw. 
As best I recall, Kulivan admitted that after seeing the birds he consulted a field guide to confirm what he believed he'd just observed, and later made his report… many feared that by the time he verbally gave his account, he unintentionally blurred, in his mind, his actual experience with that description read from a book.
I've always leaned toward believing Kulivan's take, but it is a tough call (and for a lot more reasons than the one I'm pointing out above), and I understand why Kulivan's all-too-excellent account makes some people nervous.

Indeed, there can actually be a fine line between Ivory-bill claims that are discounted because the details are too poor… and those that are discounted because the details are TOO perfect (too out-of-the-book). There is SO much IBWO information now readily accessible that the ease of concocting a "believable" sounding story out of whole cloth is great. 
Jerry Jackson used to relate the story of a lady in Mississippi who's sighting tale sounded credible to him because she described the call of the birds as sounding like geese honking -- he'd not heard anyone use that description, and it was clearly her own interpretation, but it made a lot of sense; made her sound credible. No non-birder, on their own, would likely say an IBWO call sounded like "kent" or "henk" -- those are strictly pneumonics you pick up from the literature, but the comparison to geese was more unique (...just as a non-birder would never say they heard an owl in the woods call out something like "who cooks for you," except by getting that out of a book).
My point in all this is simply that "credibility" (especially of non-birders) is hard to judge, and often in the eye of the beholder. At this point, in the IBWO arena, I suspect even the credibility of USFWS and Cornell is pretty much in tatters for many in the wider birding community. And despite 1000s of excellent birders (including famous ones) in this country, I literally don't know who, outside of David Sibley, could report an Ivory-bill with no accompanying photo/video, and immediately have widespread believability. NO ONE, I suspect.

Over the last 6 years many anecdotal reports have been sent my way… sometimes from sighters themselves, sometimes from people informing me about a sighter they know of. In two instances I sent stories along to "higher ups" saying essentially, "ehhh, maybe this is worth checking out a little further…" In all the rest of the cases, I only needed to ask a few questions to conclude the tales lacked credibility and details (that doesn't always necessarily mean the stories had NO credibility, it just means they lacked enough to warrant pursuing). 

An hour after the Dan Rainsong story broke I wrote that I regarded it as bogus; some folks emailed me saying I should let the story play out, wait for more info and specifics; that I was reacting too quickly… but it only took 30 minutes of Googling on the Web to find enough red flags and incriminating oddities to utter an opinion that the story lacked even an iota of credibility, and was going to be a distraction and time-waster. The only way one could take the press release seriously was to be too lazy to research it on the internet.  
An earlier episode by the fellow known as "TheMagicGuy" in Florida similarly was quickly discounted by most of us because again a little websleuthing made his story (which also sounded a bit too perfect and too bookish) seem unlikely. And when the Steve Sheridan tale became public I began asking questions in backchannels because on so many counts it too lacked a solid ring of authenticity, to be taken seriously for so long. And MOST of the stories I get through email are even more obviously lacking in cred (…BUT, a tiny tiny residue do have substance).

I bring up this whole discussion now because of the prior post and comments to it. Without photos/video, claims of credible IBWO stories are largely meaningless to the wider birding community… been there, done that, 1000 times. I specifically asked if any official agency was involved with the "interview" of the current LA. claimant because obviously any story told by Fred or Frank, or Mary, Larry, Gary, Harry, or Albert Einstein for that matter, needs to be vetted further by others… and then others… and then others, to attain any traction at all (unless or until there are photos).

...But, BUT, BUUUUT… having said all this, the single greatest error I live in fear of, is what I call the "Mason Spencer error" -- Mason Spencer was a non-credible reporter of Ivory-bills (I won't repeat his story here), and as a result one of these precious specimens died for him to verify his claim... I probably would have scoffed at him myself. In the end, just because someone is NOT credible, does NOT automatically mean every given claim they make is UNtrue. It is NON-birders, with less than stellar experience, knowledge and background, who spend far more time in IBWO-type habitat than skilled birders -- percentage-or-probability-wise, it is more likely a NON-birder will encounter Ivory-bills than a birder. And so while I have no patience for hoaxes and pranks, and trust my instincts on those strongly, I always carry some lingering fear of premature judgments…

In short, I fully understand why skeptics express doubt at a story like the latest familiar-sounding one from LA. I'm dubious of it myself (for many reasons)… but, it is none-the-less, the type or form of story I can't write off out-of-hand... because it likely won't ever be a David Sibley or any other expert who resolves this saga… it is at least as likely to be a Mason Spencer or Gene Sparling type figure, who no one saw coming.
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-- From Louisiana --

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Received a letter yesterday from Louisiana searchers with information they wish to pass along for the benefit of any other active searchers. The verbatim letter below:

********************************* 

"We have just returned from several areas in LA and MS where we observed drought habitat conditions.  This has triggered a good oak mast crop.  We recently received, credible, repeat site reports from LA in an oak dominated ridge in a residential area, and after visiting believe that Ivory-bills could be disproportionately in oak dominated, higher areas near the first bottoms or second bottoms during the upcoming seasons.

Fred Virrazzi, Franklin Wiley and myself, a botanist, were camping in the tupelo-cypress dominated first bottoms when we recorded no insects under several square feet of bark peeled from dead boles of multiple species.  Internally to six inches, the standing dead wood was also dry.

We were skeptical of any sightings in a residential area but upon videoed interviews, review of field notes and ecological observations we surmised these were likely good sightings in a wooded residential area surrounded on three sides by first bottoms.  Most importantly the 300 acre area was a ridge, perpendicular to a large river with tens of thousands of acres of decent bottomland and this higher strip had many Live Oaks and other species producing mast.  The observer was very reputable; the bird flew away upon detection of slight movement the two times it was observed perched.

Fred noted that mast attracted Ivory-bills to Wadmacon Island, SC in the 1930’s and that  historical literature describes it as an Ivory-billed food resource.  In modern times Guthrie and Everett noted a possible connection between mast and Ivory-bills. 

In drought years borer insects can be harder to find and acorn crops can be heavy; it could be a time to look for birds in higher, wooded areas near the bottomlands.

Thank You,

Elizabeth Peck
National Biodiversity Parks"

*********************************

 I have inquired of them 1) if there's any chance the "videoed interviews" would be publicly available at some point (or, alternatively, if anyone from Cornell, LSU, or USFWS have viewed them), and 2) if they're able to be any more specific about the LA. location they are referring to, but have not yet heard back. Perhaps they can respond here in the comments at some point...?
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-- Rarer Than Ivory-bills??? --

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Recently someone sent me a photo of a partially "leucistic" Pileated Woodpecker, in this instance a specimen with a slightly enlarged white wing patch showing. Over the years from time-to-time readers have sent along such pics of Pileateds with various small white body patches present, though I've never found such examples very interesting. What does interest me though (as I've repeatedly noted before) are Pileateds with a great prevalence of white showing on their bodies. There have been several of these discovered over the years in different locales (including the Big Woods of Arkansas). A Google image search brings up some of them:

http://tinyurl.com/aul2uhv

Always worth keeping such examples in mind, not because they would likely be mistaken for Ivory-bills, but because they hint at the possibility of specimens that truly do have a large, more defined, white (symmetrical) shield-like pattern that might mimic an Ivory-bill. I'm still waiting for the day when someone gets a photo of such a bird (as Noel Snyder actually reported seeing decades ago in Florida, but didn't get a photograph). I suspect such birds truly do exist and possibly even get mistaken for IBWOs… but, I also suspect, for now, that they are rarer than Ivory-bills.
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-- FWIW --

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David Luneau notes (Oct. 18) receipt of a recent sighting he seems to feel of some interest. No details provided as yet, however; not even as to general location:

http://www.ibwo.org/index.php

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-- "Potential Source of Confusion" --

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I'll pass along this note from a reader expressing "a potential source of confusion" that searchers ought be alerted to… the Black-bellied Whistling Duck.

This species is expanding it's territory further into Southeastern states, and the e-mailer notes that in the case of a brief glance from behind, the bird would flash black-and-white wings, have duck-like flight, be the right size, found in a swamp, and possibly taking off from a tree; moreover a typical field guide range map wouldn't necessarily lead one to consider this species.
The writer sends along the below photo (of a BBWD) to give some sense of what a sudden escape flight might appear like:

...For obvious reasons, 'fleeting glances' of birds flying away are not likely at this point, to get much serious consideration as Ivory-bills from the birding community; and better, longer looks are likely to rule out BBWD and other waterfowl... but good to keep all possibilities in mind.
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-- Long Hot Summer --

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Have only heard from a couple of folks who spent any time looking for IBWOs during what may have been the worst, hottest, buggiest, most uncomfortable summer on recent record in the Southeast (never a great time to look for IBWOs, even under good conditions). If anyone further cares to note the location of any search time spent in the last few months feel free to  (for example I presume at least some searching continues in the Big Woods, yet I don't recall anyone mentioning it to me via email for quite awhile. Also, if anyone still has automatic remote cameras up & running, or plans to re-deploy in winter, I'd be curious to know that as well, just to have a better sense of what locales continue to receive some monitoring).

December-March is probably the far more propitious time for searching... we'll see how many man-hours and reports, if any, the upcoming winter produces. Mike Collins notes that he hopes to have a very active search season in his Pearl River domain, probably beginning around January, but also says this may be his last season, with tentative plans to return to his Wash. D.C. work office in 2013: http://www.fishcrow.com/winter13.html
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-- Jurassic Whatever… --

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I s'pose I have some ambivalent feelings about this, but iconoclast Stewart Brand (with others) has a current project underway, called "Revive and Restore" to bring back-to-life various extinct species, using modern genetic techniques. Although their current focus is on the Passenger Pigeon, both the Ivory-billed and Imperial Woodpeckers are among other candidate species being considered.

http://rare.longnow.org/projects.html

http://blog.longnow.org/02012/07/16/revive-and-restore/

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-- Replay --

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For any who may be interested, someone named John Deamond has pieced together this video of various IBWO-related clips (there seems to be no accompanying audio). The first minute-or-so are some very quick clips, mostly zoomed, that have made claims of showing IBWOs (some from YouTube, some from Mike Collins, 1 from Geoff Hill's group). The next 11 minutes are various replayings of the Luneau clip from Arkansas, and the last minute is some superfluous animation:

IBWO Triptych from john deamond on Vimeo.

I don't find anything distinctly helpful or new here, but pass it along in the event others may wish to play with it. Also, don't know any particulars about John's project beyond his own statement that it is "...about extinct birds and how the events surrounding and following their demise reflect issues with how we deal with the natural environment."

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-- Hope (...and Reports) Remains --

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Minnesota birder Jim Williams voices his continued hope for the Ivory-bill in this current short column:

http://www.startribune.com/lifestyle/homegarden/blogs/162911316.html

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-- Random Thoughts on a Hot Summer Night --

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Often I let such things go, though sometimes they wear on me a bit… mislabeled pictures of an "Ivory-billed Woodpecker" (with a photo of a Pileated) continually appear on the Web, simply adding to the widespread confusion that stiiiiill exists over these 2 species even after all this time. 

(Ivory-billed Woodpecker... NNNOT!!)

Mislabeled pics on the Web are especially egregious because of the way they are picked up by others and transferred along, so even if the originating site eventually corrects their depiction, the inaccurate picture may have already traveled on, unchecked, repeatedly far and wide. 
Likewise, I've lost track of how many videos on YouTube have appeared claiming "Ivory-billed Woodpecker" for a bird that is clearly something other (and there are other Web video sites that I don't track closely enough to even know how often the same mistake occurs elsewhere).
 It's even more disconcerting that many of these claims emanate from poor habitat or simply inappropriate states (New York, Washington state, Arizona…). Although, most of these cases are probably sincere mistakes, it's also clear that some are instances of prankish individuals wishing only to mess with other people's minds. Getting a good, clear sighting, let alone photo of an Ivory-bill, in good habitat remains a daunting task.

Even National Geographic (a site many would presume credible) for years carried a lead photo of a Pileated Woodpecker above a 2006 Web article on the IBWO search, entitled "The Ghost Bird"… a photo that got picked up and used by others referencing it as an "Ivory-billed Woodpecker." Is it any wonder that IBWOs continue to get ID'd mistakenly in the field by novices and ill-informed individuals, sometimes literally relying on an incorrect picture seen on the Web… or, is it any wonder that others now pretty much automatically dismiss any and all such claims… still, each and every claim and picture coming forth must be looked at individually and adjudged on its own merits… not judged or generalized about on the basis of all that has preceded it.

Science is not (nor ever has been) the pristine activity some uncritically view it as. In recent months many 'scandals' (of varying seriousness) in scientific publications have emerged. One of the most widely followed has been the so-called "arseniclife" or "arsenicgate" story in which a NASA-based study claimed the discovery of a bacterial life-form employing arsenic in the place of phosphorous in its DNA (a monumental biology finding). One likes to imagine that NASA pretty well knows what it's doing scientifically, but following the much-ballyhooed announcement a near immediate firestorm of Internet-generated criticism began throwing cold water on the claims. For now, the original authors continue to defend their results, even while refutations have been published and few seem to take the initial claimants very seriously. 
It is reminiscent of the 1989 Fleischmann/Pons report of creating tabletop cold fusion in the lab, which was likewise quickly shot down by the majority of the scientific community. Mistakes (...or merde ;-)) happen. There have been many instances of fraud in science in recent times; these last two examples aren't instances of that… just mistakes, over-anxiousness, and possibly poor or sloppy science.
 
In some quarters I still see the original Cornell/Nature Conservancy pronouncement of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers in the Big Woods characterized as a "hoax" or "fraud." It is clearly a MIS-characterization (for what, at worst, was weak science), but again, once on the Web it will carry well into the future, to many future newbie students… IF, the IBWO is never confirmed.
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-- Higgs Appears, Bevier Disappears --

(The elusive Higgs Bird, from Chester Reed 

via Wikimedia Commons)

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Happy Holiday! to my US readers… and Happy Higgs Day! to my European readers (and science buffs EVERYwhere!)… now that 'The God Particle' is being confirmed, perhaps the Lord God Bird will follow… ;-)

anyway, just one actual IBWO note of curiosity today:

I recently clicked to Louis Bevier's honed (skeptical) site on the Ivory-bill debate, only to find it gone:

http://web.mac.com/lrbevier/ivorybilled/Overview.html

Having not visited for several months, not sure when it went down, but apparently Apple dropped that particular domain from use at some point. So I surmise that either…

1) Louis, purposely or accidentally, let the site disappear, since he has the hard data and may feel the debate is long-settled, so no need to continue the Website... (or he may be re-working the material to re-post the site).

2) or, if by chance he is planning to publish further, extended material on the matter (in an academic journal), he may have felt no need to keep the Website up-and-running with a more formal publication in the offing.

3) or, he may simply be tired of being associated with the entire IBWO topic at all and moved on.

There are other possible explanations as well I s'pose, so if anyone knows more, or if his site can be found at some new URL, please let us know.
You can, by the way, still find most of the text portions of Bevier's old site via the Internet's Wayback Machine here:

http://tinyurl.com/6omqdkf
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-- Book Review --

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I previously promoted Canadian Tom Gallant's recent novel, "The Lord God Bird," before actually seeing it, and now with so little other news to report, and having read it, I may as well do my own review….

First, one should know that I can count on the fingers of one hand (and not including the thumb!) the number of novels I've read in the last 20 years, so I ain't the finest judge of fiction (in fact I tend to be hyper-critical of it)! It takes a work like Gallant's to even grab my (prejudiced) attention much, and spend $$$ on a novel.

With that said, I recommend this quaint and odd little book to all Ivory-bill aficionados in particular, and nature readers more generally… I want to say that upfront, because I don't want the criticisms ahead to be taken too weightily.

Gallant's writing is about as terse and abrupt as any I've encountered, and yet still descriptive. The nameless main characters are (possibly paradoxically) both sparsely, yet richly, drawn out. The writing is almost too spare and pithy for my taste, but in a short volume, it nonetheless works well, and will please most readers. The overriding effect is that of deep 'truths'/insights being continuously but nonchalantly proffered to the reader from the main protagonist.

The story is surprisingly close in general pattern to actual events of the last several years: a local Arkansas outdoorsman (who remains nameless throughout) spots an Ivory-billed Woodpecker in the Big Woods of Arkansas, and the news soon travels to the ivory-towered world of the Cornell Lab of Ornithology. Two representatives from there visit the area and quickly also spot the bird, bringing in even more academic types and volunteers for a more thorough search of the area… sound familiar? 
Obviously, the book is based on the real events that this blog has followed so closely for the last 6 years, yet its unfolding story is told in a completely fictionalized form, so while the pattern sounds familiar, the details differ greatly. I find it a bit odd that Gallant chose to stay as close to an actual sequence of events as he did (when he had an immense world of fictional possibilities to draw from)… but having done that, I find it odd that he didn't choose even more of the events from the last 6 years that were available to weave into the story. There have been so many elements of the Ivory-bill saga that could be fictionalized into interesting twists and mysteries and storylines… I think he missed a lot of potential opportunities here; but this book is more a succinct and heartfelt telling, than a highly-involved weaving.

For me, the novel takes off with chapter 3, when the Ivory-billed Woodpecker itself comes on stage as an anthropomorphically-thinking/'speaking' character. The anthropomorphized Ivory-bills are something you will either read and find off-putting… or, read and tear up at. For most readers of this blog I hope it is the latter. For me it is a centerpiece of the volume; a sort of flight-of-fancy element that lets the story carve out a special niche, as we surreptitiously gain access to the thoughts/'feelings' of the iconic species. In fact, I would've liked to have seen a lot more of it in the pages.

In chapter 8, "Ron" and "Steve" from the Cornell Lab of Ornithology enter the scenario, and as so often happens in fiction, begin playing the role of 'outsider' academics cast into the real world of the main character who is wary of them. I won't go much into the details of the storyline, nor the ending, so as not to spoil it for any readers. Much of the narrative is about the relationships that develop between the main character and the varied others who enter his world following his sighting. The main character's outlook and 'philosophy' of sorts is also an ongoing thread throughout these pages. And there are of course many interludes, focused on the action of the Ivory-bill 'characters' as well, as they succeed and fail and succeed again at raising young, while warily watching the human invasion of their premises. The story moves along at an easy-flowing pace; sometimes a bit predictable, but not too predictable. And the ending pleases.

On the critical side I felt the volume suffered from some choppiness, some under-development, and possibly some factual glitches, but overall was a wonderful effort for a first-time novel (Gallant has previously written non-fiction). It is a somewhat lyrical ode to nature, though possibly not quite as lyrical as I was expecting or hoping for. At times, for me, the volume alternated between being a simple pleasant human story and being a loftier work, on the verge of soaring... but never sustained its loftiness long enough. The ending is poignant and a tad haunting, but could've been even more powerful (that's just my take, as someone inordinately wrapped-up in this species, and who may have held unrealistically high expectations that the book couldn't attain). One of the advance blurbs on the book's back cover calls it a "sweet uplifting parable for our times." I think that's as good a 6-word summation as I could offer.

Four times in the last 20 years I have myself started writing (and failed to finish), an Ivory-billed Woodpecker book: 3 of those efforts were non-fiction (each with a quite different approach), but one was a novel.  The novel I envisioned carried a different plot than Tom's book, but a somewhat similar tone, 'feel' or 'mystique' to what Gallant has created here. His is a crisper, probably simpler, story than I had in mind, and I'm thrilled he told it. So despite the mild criticisms, I do heartily recommend it to all who are enamored of this iconic bird, or simply in search of an enjoyable nature story. I'm glad someone took the time to write it (and, in the process, to exhibit so much respect for the subject)… the Ivory-bill deserves no less.


Another recent piece on Tom's book here:

http://southshorenow.ca/archives/2012/062712/arts/Tom_Gallant_releases_first_fictional_novel.html.php

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-- Go On Record... --

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With so little to report, I'll just mention that Jack Hitt's latest book, "Bunch of Amateurs," includes a long chapter on the whole Ivory-bill escapade since Cornell's original announcement (and the role of "amateurs" in that escapade). I've previously linked to this NY Times article of Hitt's which includes some of the same info he used in his book:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/07/magazine/07woodpecker.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

(not sure if everyone can directly open the link or if you'll need a free registration with the Times to access it)

Since I expect ensuing months to be slow for IBWO news I'll put out a call as I did once before:

...If anyone who has been involved at some level with the IBWO story over the last several years is willing to submit to an interview as I've done in the past (answering transcribed questions, not an audio or podcast), let me know. This could be anyone who thinks they have a viewpoint or information worth sharing, either from the 'believer' or skeptical side, positive or negative…. Assuming I know of you in some guise just email me (cyberthrush@gmail.com) with a note indicating a willingness to be interviewed. If by chance I might not know of your role in the whole IBWO endeavor then please explain in the email your background and what you feel you may have to offer (so I can figure out what sorts of questions to pose for you). Don't everyone volunteer at once!….
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-- Sharin' Some Ivory-bill Love --

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Sometimes I skip over reporting on non-documentary Ivorybill-related movies, novels, stories, and the like here… enough folks already regard the content of this blog as fiction ;-) without me bringing up deliberate outputs of fiction. But the reviews I've seen for a recent novel set in the Big Woods of Arkansas, entitled "The Lord God Bird" by Tom Gallant, are too good and positive, not to pass this one along (haven't read it myself, but haven't seen a single bad review).

From the publisher:

"Infused with captivating imagery and spare, assertive prose, The Lord God Bird explores the vibrant spirit of a wild creature in a way no nonfiction work ever could. This is a profound, yet hopeful, meditation on the way humans relate to the natural world."

Read more about it here:

http://thechronicleherald.ca/books/93291-connection-to-the-wilderness

http://www.quantucklanepress.com/catalog/book.php?bkID=102

http://www.kingmandailyminer.com/main.asp?SectionID=74&SubSectionID=649&ArticleID=50206

http://tomgallant.com/site/the-lord-god-bird/the-lord-god-blurbs/

...a transcribed interview with the author here:

http://tomgallant.com/site/the-lord-god-bird/q-a-with-tom-gallant/

and an audio interview here:

http://tinyurl.com/734b82j

…may it be a moving, inspiring read for visitors here.

ADDENDUM 6/17: Rick Wright has now written a nice review of Gallant's book over at the ABA Blog:

http://blog.aba.org/2012/06/gallant-the-lord-god-bird.html
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-- Florida Dreaming --

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 May closes out soon and with it, summer overtakes the southeast… summer heat, humidity, foliage, bugs, snakes…. If any Ivory-bills fledged this spring they may just now be beginning to travel around the forest greenery with their parents, just as Ivory-bill searching is largely forced to wind down to a standstill.

Not too much new to report (a few re-hash articles have been on the Web), so I'll just toss out the little bit of visual entertainment I can find: 

First this nice-sounding double-knock apparently recorded in the Choctawhatchee (around the 5-6 second point; & turn your volume up):

 

the fellows recording it made a pleasant companion travelogue of their venture (no additional IBWO material though):

 

From the serious (I assume/hope) to the oddball… an individual on Facebook casually claims the recent sighting of 2 Ivory-bills on a tree somewhere in central Florida (outside Gainesville, I believe, but not certain), and got at least one blurry photo:

http://tinyurl.com/ctvxwfv

The bird certainly has an interesting posture, size, and neck(!), and is on an interesting tree (though poor-looking habitat), but lacks key features of an IBWO (longer bill, white saddleback) and so it goes....

Here's an artist's rendering of an IBWO in a similar pose:

http://cache.io9.com/assets/images/8/2011/05/ivory-billed-woodpecker.jpg

and here, some Pileateds similarly posing:

http://i11.photobucket.com/albums/a169/libsys/Jan2009/IMG_1804aPileatedWoodpecker.jpg

 http://www.outdooralabama.com/images/Image/Pileated.jpg

http://tinyurl.com/7om963v

http://tinyurl.com/7r45wk7

Summer seems to always bring a few more interesting tidbits than I expect, but still am not anticipating a great deal of posting over next few months. We'll see what happens....

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-- Population Genetics & Species Decline --

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h/t to Nate Swick and the ABA Blog for bringing attention to some graduate student work at LSU focusing on using new population genetics techniques to better account for the significant declines/extinction of some iconic bird species:



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-- Comedy of Errors? --

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..... Seven years ago today, Cornell Lab of Ornithology officials made what may have been either the most incredible, or, ultimately most embarrassing, announcement in the entire history of American ornithology. Some of us are still awaiting a verdict on that announcement… (while others have long-past made up their minds). And seven years later, no final compendium of the official search, as promised, has been forthcoming; in fact the principals largely steer clear of public Ivory-bill discussion now -- what was once a great fund-raising tool would now virtually be a fund-raising obstruction. 
But the topic continues....

Many (unfortunately) will view last week's mini-fiasco at a local Texas TV station (implying first a Red-headed Woodpecker and then later a Pileated Woodpecker were putative Ivory-bills based on one local observer) as the mere continuation of a (perceived) comedy of errors begun 7 years ago.

Every few months I still get via email a claimed Ivory-bill sighting from somewhere… and I suspect others in the ornithology community hear a lot more stories than I do. Claims for Ivory-bills continue to show up on websites, including Twitter and Facebook. And YouTube receives several "Ivory-bill" videos each year. In short, even after all this time and publicity, claims from the inexpert and inexperienced roll in… and I don't blame people (too much?) for getting excited and jumping to false conclusions based on limited knowledge. …It is odd though when out-of-the-blue, one of these multitudinous claims makes it directly onto a TV station. So, I do blame a knucklehead ;-) news station when they take such a story and run with it to a mass audience without the simplest of verification (the Texas story was no doubt used, because it included video… but THAT of course is exactly why it could've so easily been researched and junked!). 

I won't recount the full story here; it's already received more publicity than it ever deserved. One suspects the primary station involved was deluged with a range of polite to riled corrections from a throng of birders/biologists… but I also suspect they simply found it humorous that, in a day of Jihadi terrorists, global warming, and economic plight, folks would so bristle over a mere botched animal/human-interest story. Bristle they (rightfully) did...

Because of the nature of the Internet, and despite a later correction from the broadcast station, the bogus story will continue to bounce around the Web in some quarters for days or weeks, reinforcing the 'laughability' quotient of the whole Ivory-bill topic.
A Texas trademark slogan warns us, "Don't mess with Texas"… I'd prefer to revise that to, "HEYYY, Texas, DON'T MESS with birders… puhhh-leeeze!!!" 
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-- On the Big Screen --

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Documentary filmmaker George Butler has been working on "The Lord God Bird," the only Cornell-endorsed film account of the IBWO search, as "a work in progress" since the beginning of this Arkansas-based saga. The independent film has been screened sparingly over recent years, and is included in upcoming Earth Day celebrations (next weekend) at the Berkshire Museum in Pittsfield, Massachusetts, if you're in the area:

http://berkshireonstage.com/2012/04/14/earth-day-with-george-butler-and-the-lord-god-bird-at-the-berkshire-museum/

An old 2007 John Trapp review of it here:

http://birdstuff.blogspot.com/2007/03/i-just-saw-lord-god-bird.html

The film was originally intended as "the first in a planned trilogy of films dealing with extinction," with subsequent entries to focus on the Royal Bengal Tiger and the Lowland Gorilla.
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-- Back to Atchafalaya --

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A semi-interesting post over at IBWO Researchers Forum from a prominent independent IBWO searcher regarding a recent double-knock in the Atchafalaya (he urges further investigation of the the area if possible):

http://www.ibwo.net/forum/showthread.php?p=5980#post5980

(As a note, the general Atchafalaya region of La. is the site of a great many historical Ivory-bill claims over the years, though the Cornell team that surveyed it didn't seem as impressed with it as several other regions.)

And on a complete sidebar, I've posted about the Madagascan Pochard previously, and a reader sends in this feel-good update on that possible conservation success:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/17616488
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-- April 2 --

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...just a quick note of thanks to all those who did NOT send me a report of spotting an Ivory-billed Woodpecker yesterday!!
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-- Intermission --

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Feel like I ought to post something for the time being, so... just some old relaxing nature video:



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-- Of Soras, Kitchens, and Paradoxes --

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Probably ought do a new entry since some readers only read the posts here and miss the comments section… so for any who don't know already, the prevailing opinion to the latest taped sounds from Louisiana is that they are likely Sora rails (I'm not 100% convinced of this myself, but its a moot point since I am convinced they are not IBWO sounds). You can read the comments to the prior post to fill in some of the details, if you haven't already...

One other thing I'll touch on from the comments (and I thank people for not letting them slip toooooooooooo far into 'snarkland' before making your points):

For obvious reasons many (most?) birders no longer wish to involve themselves in the Ivory-bill debate (no doubt wishing it would just go entirely away!). It was suggested in prior comments that the 'mystery' sounds should've been put on listserv groups (including "Frontiers of Identification") for access to a quick, broad range of opinion. I don't believe the "Frontiers of ID" listserv is an appropriate site for most questions that come up here, nor do I think they would even take it seriously (they may even have an unspoken ban on this sort of IBWO material), and I don't fault them for that.

I myself had mentioned a desire to see the question put on the Louisiana birding listserv, though I'm not sure even they would have seriously reviewed it (and I wouldn't recommend it for any other state birding listserv -- by the way, you can't just willy-nilly post things on these listserv groups, but must be a registered member, and that involves a process as well). I do wish that more individuals from the Louisiana Ornithological Society had heard and responded to the sounds, and would still be interested to hear from certain of them.

But the point is, soliciting a wide selection of experienced birder viewpoints is not all that easy anymore when it comes to potential IBWO "evidence." When I occasionally seek opinions on certain questions through backchannels, the response I often get (if any) is along the lines of, "here's what I think, but please don't put it on the blog" or "here's my opinion, but don't attach my name to it." I always respect people's desire for confidentiality, but it does mean that more people weigh in on certain matters than can always be told (though still not as many as I'd like!); at this point 'Ivory-bills' is simply a 'taboo' subject for many who don't want to dabble with it.

I've said before here, if you can't take the heat stay out of the IBWO kitchen… (as David Kulivan, Mike Collins, Geoff Hill, and a li'l outfit called the Cornell Lab of Ornithology etc. can all attest to!); the Project Coyote group seems capable of defending themselves, as they should expect to have to do; other searchers prefer not to even have an internet presence and thus not deal directly with skeptics and criticisms. Part of me wishes that ALL evidence could be immediately laid out on an open table and summarily dealt with by the 'collaborative' Web. But I also completely agree with a colleague who notes that the more 'suggestive' evidence that comes forth without something conclusive following it, the more the IBWO case gets weaker, not stronger. That is the 'paradox' of the IBWO case… the more "evidence" that is produced the WEAKER the argument becomes to the general birding community, UNLESS clearcut photographic or video evidence follows close behind….

(image of Sora via Wikipedia)
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-- 'Round and 'Round We Go --

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Thanks to all who've sent along their thoughts on the Louisiana sounds via email… even though nothing is settled; no one writing me is willing to call the sounds Ivory-bills, but nor has anyone pinpointed a really convincing candidate for what the sounds are -- I'm honestly surprised a good candidate hasn't arisen yet. I think the most difficult thing to account for is the sporadic, unpatterned nature of the calls -- the notes themselves do sound like certain things, but not when given in the rather random sort of series that they appear. As I've been leaning somewhat toward waterbirds as the source for the sounds my best candidate thus far (though it has some problems) is immature Common Moorhen (Gallinule):

http://tinyurl.com/88uozh9

Kinda wish someone would put the calls on the Louisiana listserv -- even if most readers there are likely jaded to Ivory-bill stuff, it still may take just one person, well-acquainted with Louisiana fauna, to hear the tapes and say, "Well it was February, so of course that is ___________", and the riddle is over! -- I'm a believer in the collaborative 'hive mind' of the Web (even as messy as it can be) -- the day of "experts" solving things in isolation is receding (and this 6-year IBWO saga/debacle? of inconclusiveness may be an example of why). Still, would also be good to hear the opinions of David Sibley, Pete Dunne and several others, though they may not wish to publicly wade into such matters. We need to put these mystery sounds to rest as soon as possible… even if it's not Ivory-bills, other IBWO searchers need to know what is capable of such sounds. I've recently put the sound clips on Twitter, but don't expect much feedback from that. (On a sidenote, the last people still alive to have actually heard Ivory-bills in the wild, Nancy Tanner and George & Nancy Lamb have heard the tapes, but are not able to clearly rule in or out the possibility of IBWOs.)

For what it's worth, I think the Louisiana team wishes these latest auditory clips to be viewed not in isolation, but as part of a larger body of work (sightings claims, scaling, anecdotes, etc.) that they've compiled over an extended period of time in the general central Louisiana area they are working. Still, we need lengthy, close-up, detailed observations by multiple observers, at a minimum…. and really, photos/video. (sorry, to sound like a broken record…)

Again (so you don't have to keep jumping back to an earlier post), here are the swamp sounds in question:

http://www.south-run.com/coyote/1stsequence.MP3

http://www.south-run.com/coyote/2ndsequence.MP3

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ADDENDUM: for bird-detective-types ;-), wishing to play around with various sounds themselves, the site I used above, xeno-canto, is here:

http://www.xeno-canto.org/

I like it because it usually has several different examples for any given species; males, females, and juveniles can have quite different calls/songs, and even a single given bird may have a variety of different vocalizations depending upon circumstances.

Cornell has at least 2 sites from which you can listen to bird sounds, their famous Macaulay Library, and their "All About Birds" site:

http://macaulaylibrary.org/
http://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/search/ac

And a couple other sites here:

http://www.naturesongs.com/birds.html
http://www.enature.com/birding/audio.asp

Finally, even YouTube will often have great examples of bird calls.
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-- Update --

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Not much of an update (read prior post if you haven't already), but I've been listening to the Coyote tapes repeatedly, and received slightly more context about the sounds. My first impression remains the same, that these don't sound (to my ears), like what I'd expect of Ivory-bills… the pitch, tone, cadence, speed, rhythm doesn't maintain itself correctly through the tapes, even though some short bits do sound intriguing (but, I've done no technical analysis). Having said that, I can't pinpoint a good alternative candidate for the sounds either. Certainly though, a great many sources must be considered:

1) various amphibians

2) injured or 'yelping' dogs or other mammals

3) mechanical or artificial (man-made) sounds: bird calls, tools, hinges, equipment etc.

4) I'm not aware of insects that could make these sounds, but would want an entomologist to weigh in on that.

5) just among birds alone, jays, herons, waterfowl, blackbirds, hawks, escaped psittacine birds, vagrants, and perhaps more must be considered

If some of the above suggestions seem outlandish to people, one must understand that the possibility of IBWOs IS outlandish to people… to rule IN such a low probability possibility as IBWOs, one needs to consider and rule OUT all other low probability possibilities. And from what I'm told, several of the above are already considered and ruled out. Process of elimination is a somewhat weak, but necessary, way to proceed (and I would expect spectrographic analysis will rule out all but a few of the above, though not necessarily pinpoint an answer). My own guess is still that there WILL be an alternative explanation for the sounds (this is the time of year a LOT of forest critters begin sounding off!), but admittedly, with each listening I'm having a harder time surmising what it might be.

I'm curious, by the way, of what Nancy Tanner might think of the sounds, if anyone out there can draw her attention to them. Anyone else who cares to weigh in via the comments or privately through email, feel free to do so, as well.
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-- And Hey, Back to Louisiana --

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yeah, we can play this musical chairs game of southern states for awhile yet… ;-)

As regular readers here likely know the Project Coyote Team has put forth more evidence for the possible presence of IBWOs in their general search area in Louisiana. You can go to the IBWO Researchers' Forum to read their report and link to audio clips of extended "kent" sounds (that they believe emanated from two separate birds):

http://www.ibwo.net/forum/showthread.php?t=27&page=10
(beginning with 2/28/2012 entry)

You can also listen to a few representative known IBWO sounds from the Singer Tract recorded 7 decades ago here:

http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory/multimedia/sounds/knownsounds/document_view

…or the longer version here (from Cornell's Macaulay Library):

http://tinyurl.com/84ef4z3

I assume at some point the Coyote team will be posting their data up at their own Website for easier, more organized (and long-term) retrieval than on the Forum site.

As long-time readers here also may know, I don't generally find auditory evidence very convincing (have heard a lot of it over the last 6 years), especially if unaccompanied by detailed sightings, and the same is true in this instance ('kent'-like and 'double-knock'-like sounds may not be all that uncommon in deep woods), and by their own admission these specific clips don't match up all that well to the old Singer Tract recordings… thus far, I'm not even 100% convinced the current audio sounds emanate from birds (though I suspect they do); other animals as well as mechanical or man-made objects will need to be ruled out, in addition to consideration of various avian species.

Interestingly though, the La. recording team believe these kent series were at least partially in response to "attraction" methods they were employing at the time. I'll certainly wait to see what further technical analysis has to say about the audio clips (though that likely won't be definitive either), but for now am doubtful they arise from Ivory-bills. (...It's always possible that if I'd heard these sounds in the field myself they would be more impressive than hearing them through a computer sound system though; context can alter perceptions).

I do believe the Project Coyote team is working in a good search area, and hope that perhaps follow-up work will produce more compelling evidence… obviously, locating the general area for TWO possible Ivory-billed Woodpeckers at this time of year (breeding season) would be extremely significant IF it were truly the case.

I've long contended that stationing automatic recording units in the woods of say Maine or Vermont for a week (or even 72 hrs. over a weekend) would likely pick up some 'kents' and 'double-knocks' (…am still surprised that no one, so far as I'm aware, has done such a study to indicate in some rudimentary way a sort of baseline of the auditory possibilities). Similarly, interesting cavities and significant scaling can be found in northern woods. As I think the Coyote team understands, from the standpoint of the current public arena, all such evidence at this point is weak without coinciding lengthy, detailed (and preferably close-up) sightings… and better yet of course, photos/video. The bar is set very very high, to even catch people's interest at this point.

I know some other independent-sorts have been searching in the last month... if anyone has anything at all encouraging to report let me know through confidential email (if you're willing).

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ADDENDUM: a Proj. Coyote team member sends along to me these stand alone links to the 2 'kent' recordings (first one long, 2nd one short):

http://www.south-run.com/coyote/1stsequence.MP3
http://www.south-run.com/coyote/2ndsequence.MP3

Further, the emailer recommends this additional Cornell page for a rendition of the Singer Tract kents under conditions more similar to the Proj. Coyote recording:

http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory/multimedia/sounds/soundalikekent/document_view

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-- February Closing Out --

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Looks like February will close out with even less to report on than I thought might be the case...

Oh well, with spring/summer right around the corner, in the event you want to stock up on some Ivory-billed T-shirts, you can check out a few choices here:

http://www.zazzle.com/%22ivory-billed+woodpecker%22+tshirts

Meanwhile, Mike Collins has streamlined his Ivory-bill website, eliminating a lot of previously-posted material (including the last 3 search season logs). Some folks have made inquiries to me, but I don't know whether he plans future Pearl River updates (assuming his efforts are ongoing), or will only do so if/when there is something significant to report. You can always try emailing Mike directly for info (cinclodes@yahoo.com). Or, if you're looking for something specific from Mike's previous pages you may be able to find it through the Internet's archival "Wayback Machine" here:

http://wayback.archive.org/web/20110701000000*/http://fishcrow.com

His last paper on the subject of course remains available as well:

http://tinyurl.com/883j9qj

And an earlier manuscript (pdf) is here:

http://www.fishcrow.com/plos_manuscript.pdf


I don't currently foresee doing a "Back To Mississippi" blogpost, and yet it has long been one of the states of greatest interest to me -- a good amount of interesting habitat, but lacking the number of extensive visits and searches that Florida, Louisiana, Texas, and South Carolina have garnered.
For now I'll just once again link to Bill Pulliam's 2006 analysis of Mississippi:

http://bbill.blogspot.com/2006/03/mississippi.html

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-- And, Back To Georgia --

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It's difficult to truly say "back to" in the case of Georgia, since the state has never been as much a focus of IBWO searches as some other southern states. According to the officially-recognized original distribution of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers in the U.S., only a slim southern and eastern margin of Georgia was ever home to Ivory-billed Woodpeckers.

An employee of the large Okefenokee Wildlife Refuge in southern Georgia recently posted on the Ivory-bill Researchers' Forum about his ongoing interest in the species, and in turn that jogged my memory about a quirky email I received from a friend over 10 years ago (…yes, I save most all IBWO emails!). It tells an undetailed story, not unlike a jillion others many of us have heard over the years, and I doubted at the time it had any significance… but, of course one always wonders… I posted the relevant part of the email at the Forum just in case it had meaning for anyone else, and I'll post it here as well:

"I spent the holidays at my sister's house in Savannah, GA. Three of us went into the Wild Birds Unlimited on Waters Avenue late on the 27th… We were all writing checks and looking at the photos of various birds that were at the counter. We looked at a picture of Pileateds and I mentioned it was too bad we didn't see as many as we saw when my sister first moved to Skidaway Island twenty-some yrs ago. The woman behind the counter very casually commented that her son-in-law has been watching a pair of Ivory-bills on his farm in Ellabell. She said, "he is an expert, well, almost a master birder" and that he was keeping it quiet because he didn't want hordes to descend on his place. She made it sound as if he has been watching this pair for some time."

This was written to me in January, 2002, well-before Cornell's Big Woods announcement (2006), but around the time that the Remsen/Zeiss search in the La. Pearl River region was taking place as the final major followup to David Kulivan's 1999 claims. My correspondent, by the way, sent the same information along to Van Remsen, but I don't know if he ever pursued it (and I can't recall, but I may have sent it along to some other folks, as well -- in any event, I never heard anything more of it). I truly doubt that this essentially third-hand story means much of anything, but throw it out at this late date just in case it does ring a bell or have significance for someone else out there.

Ellabell is in Bryan County near Savannah, Georgia, and interestingly, a serious IBWO claim (noted by Jackson and others) did come from that general area back in 1973. The Ogeechee/Savannah river basin is nearby, and is also considered, by some to be potential IBWO habitat. Having said that, most IBWO interest in Georgia has been focused farther south at the Okefenokee Refuge (where IBWOs did reside in the distant past) -- the refuge has been scoured so often I'm doubtful IBWOs are there… though once again, it is an area so expansive that it can never truly be scoured.
Parts of the Altamaha River basin (falling between Savannah and Okefenokee) are another area of significant interest, and Herb Stoddard's famous (and credible) claims from the 1940s/50s, came mainly from the Thomas County area over 100 miles to the west of Okefenokee. [Additionally, over the years one of my most persistent correspondents has made claims for the upper Savannah/Broad River basin, but has never been able to send me anything I could find persuasive.]

Here is a link to a 2005 post by Georgia birder Sheila Willis covering a little more of the IBWO history at the Okefenokee in Georgia:

http://www.listserv.uga.edu/cgi-bin/wa?A2=ind0510&L=gabo-l&F=&S=&P=16051

Finally, when Bill Pulliam did his own 2006 (Web/TerraServer) survey of promising southern habitat, he listed his conclusions for Georgia here:

http://bbill.blogspot.com/2006/03/georgia.html

IBWO sighting tales for the Apalachicola (FL.), the Atchafalaya (LA.), the Congaree (S.C.), the Big Thicket (TX.), and some other areas are almost a dime-a-dozen, and yet follow-ups never confirm. If Ivory-bills are actually encountered in these areas it almost seems as if they must be young, dispersing birds (passing through), and NOT resident breeding birds (which could be 100 miles away), to account for the lack of results. And thus, I'm always at least a tad intrigued by these claims from off-the-beaten-track locales paid little attention, that are near, but not directly in, traditional IBWO search areas.

The bottom-line question is, has Georgia very largely been overlooked (as far as large-scale searches go) in recent times for good reason... or is that neglect all the more reason to perhaps afford it yet another look?
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-- Birdwatching Magazine Links --

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Birdwatching Magazine's (formerly "Birder's World") updated summary page of their various online Ivory-billed Woodpecker articles over the years:

http://tinyurl.com/7zhavoy
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-- "Odds"/Ends --

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The previous post took a swipe at applying statistics/probability in the social/biological sciences, but it occurs to me that the physical sciences are by no means immune from the temptation either. In astronomy, the Drake equation (which involves several terms that must be assigned values) was a famous attempt to guesstimate the chances of 'intelligent life' existing elsewhere in the Universe. Now, I have no doubt, based on nothing more than common-sense inference, that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the Universe (or in the Multiverse, as the case may be), but I do doubt that it can be demonstrated empirically with applied statistics. [Correction: the Drake equation applies only to the Milky Way galaxy, NOT the entire Universe, let alone any Multiverse -- the same underlying problems still arise on the 'smaller' scale though.] And while not a huge fan of Michael Crichton, I largely agree with his words on this one:

"The problem, of course, is that none of the terms can be known, and most cannot even be estimated. The only way to work the equation is to fill in with guesses... As a result, the Drake equation can have any value from "billions and billions" to zero. An expression that can mean anything means nothing. Speaking precisely, the Drake equation is literally meaningless…"
(again though, I'd substitute the word "silly" for "meaningless")

Somewhat interestingly (for its analogousness to the Ivory-bill situation) there is actually a second-take on the extraterrestrial life debate, known as the "Fermi paradox," which tries to argue against the probability of intelligent life elsewhere (because, hey, wouldn't we have found them by now?).

On a complete side note, while I'm not always a fan of statistics applications, I am a big fan of good nature writing, and If Julie Zickefoose isn't the best nature wordsmith living in America today I don't know who is. Her latest book, "The Bluebird Effect" will soon show up in bookstores, so I'll put in a plug for it.
And while at it, I've pointed readers to her 1999 essay on the IBWO (pre-Arkansas hoopla) from "Bird Watchers Digest" multiple times before and will do so again:

http://www.juliezickefoose.com/articles/ivory_billed_wp.html

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-- "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics" --

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There seem to be more people involved in individual IBWO searches this month than perhaps there will be the remainder of the season, though I'm doubtful much will come of it (possibly the occasional sightings claim somewhere of course, but probably no photos or other documentation).

Meanwhile, as Kai Krause once famously wrote (only part tongue-in-cheek): "93.8127 per cent of all statistics are useless"..... (though, I'd probably substitute the word "useless" with "silly.")

The drumbeat of IBWO negativity/pessimism continues on with more "statistical" studies of various data at-hand… never mind the innumerable extenuating and immeasurable variables left out of such studies. "Birdwatching" magazine cites the two most recent examples taking this approach (and getting plenty of play around the Web), though it almost borders on pseudoscience to try and apply statistics in a meaningful way to the persistence/extinction of the Ivory-bill (…but then I'd say the same thing about applying statistics to the extinction or persistence of Tyrannosaurus Rex). Number-crunching and math-application is fashionable in many social, and some biological, sciences to lend an aura of empiricism that is... well... illusory.
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-- Back to the Big Thicket --

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With no other pressing news on horizon may as well post this Texas Parks and Wildlife stab at hope from the Big Thicket:



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