-- Still More Luneau Analysis --

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Can't let Bill Pulliam's hard work go to waste, so I'll refer folks again to his ongoing further analysis of the Luneau video (which most know I'm exasperated with); the Mon. Aug. 21 entry, including comments, is particularly interesting; but again I think Bill is simply proving my point that nothing can be finally resolved by this film clip (...or it would've been by now!). And I'll stick by my own conclusion that even if the bird in question is a muscovy duck ; - ))), it barely makes a twit of difference to the overall Cornell evidence.
For the sake of accuracy and consistency though I do wish henceforth the birding community would require videotaping and field notes of all birds counted and turned in on future Christmas counts (sheeesh... talk about brief sightings and unverified data!).

http://bbill.blogspot.com/
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-- May As Well Check Elsewhere --

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Blog traffic has spiked up considerably this week which I presume is from people searching for additional Ivory-bill rumor info -- save the mouse clicks folks: probably won't be reporting any additional info or specifics beyond what I've previously posted or is floating around elsewhere on the Web -- if the story breaks in cyberspace before the principals make an announcement, it will be at some other newsgroup, listserv, chat room, or blog, not here (similarly, with but a few exceptions, I won't be adding further specifics in private emails either), though I might comment on info being reported if I think it is highly misleading or false. Otherwise will await the official disclosure by those involved, which might not come 'til the Oct. AOU Convention.
Of course many skeptics have already decided any such rumors are hokum anyway, and some of them no longer have much choice in what they think since painting themselves into a corner from which free unbiased thought is far more impossible than the survival of IBWOs. The pertinent questiion is not 'do Ivory-bills exist?,' but rather, 'in how many different locales do they exist?' And the other burning question that will eventually need addressing is, 'why did American ornithology so utterly fail this species for 60 years?'
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-- Possibly Of Interest --

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Fielding Lewis (alias, "the Chief" of some IBWO literature) who took controversial and still unresolved photos of an Ivory-bill in the Atchafalaya region of Louisiana 30+ years ago which were passed on to premier La. birder George Lowery (largely bringing him scorn), authored a book later in life (1988) of his La. adventures, including some of his IBWO anecdotes: Tales of a Louisiana Duck Hunter. Almost by accident I just came across this site that currently listed several copies for sale ranging from $15 to $95! (didn't happen to look at Amazon):

http://www.abebooks.com/servlet/SearchResults?&isbn=0533078431&nsa=1

(Tim Gallagher's book, The Grail Bird, has an entire chapter, entitled "The Boxer," devoted to meeting/chatting with Lewis.)
And still to this day, Louisiana's Atchafalaya region is one of the most likely (and difficult) locales which can be expected to harbor Ivory-bills.
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-- Just a Reminder --

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There are only a few ways to demonstrate the likely extinction of an entire species:

1. Await a long passage of time (100's of years) over which the species is no longer observed.

2. Conduct thorough searches of all locales the species might inhabit and find none.

3. Carry out some adequate combination of both the above (a shorter passage of time, but with an adequate search, and no reports).

Pterodactyls and Moas are thusly most likely extinct. Ivory-billed Woodpeckers, not even close. Everyone agrees they were around as recently as 60 years ago, and they have been reported repeatedly ever since, with thorough, organized searches being undertaken only recently in many quarters.

So just a reminder to those folks who are fond of saying, "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" -- the extinction of an entire species IS an extraordinary claim, and yes, it requires extraordinary evidence. By all means, let me know when you have some; I'd be interested in seeing it.
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-- Wambaw Creek --

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I'll just throw this out for what it's worth to the powers-that-be, and especially to those involved in the South Carolina searches. I have an acquaintance who has said for years, based both on rumors and his own knowledge of the area, that the Wambaw Creek area off the Santee in S.C. may well harbor Ivory-bills (parts of it are almost inaccessible). I trust this individual's gut instincts a lot, and mention the area because last spring's S.C. search seemed to focus only on the Congaree, so I'm not certain how much attention has been paid to the Santee, and specifically, the Wambaw area recently. Bob Russell makes mention of Wambaw Creek in his list of top areas and Jerry Jackson also speaks favorably of it in his volume.
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-- Golden Oldie --

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Once again I'll just return to a golden oldie post from about a year ago which was focussed on the Arkansas find, but the gist of which still holds true for all future finds:

..........................................
"There are many reasons to believe in the Ivory-bill's existence, but I've said for several years, that if I had to pick out just one reason it would be the VERY SAME one most birders use to argue for the bird's demise: HABITAT! Most folks claim there is no suitable habitat remaining for this species. To the contrary, the number of remote, little-accessed, dense Southern forest patches available that could sustain 1-2 pairs of IBWOs (not to mention non-breeding juveniles) has long been SIGNIFICANT and growing. In the current Smithsonian magazine (Aug. 2005), top-notch birder Scott Weidensaul says this:

"And there is another, far more potent reason for hope. I've birded all over the country, but the Big Woods area was a revelation to me -- a vast, beautiful chunk of wild land." (italics added).

If this area was a "revelation" to someone as knowledgeable and experienced as Scott, than how much other habitat has been ignored by the country's birders? Jerry Jackson argued for years that revised forestry practices have allowed possible adequate IBWO habitat to INCREASE substantially over the decades, NOT decrease, as people blindly presume.

A lot of headlines in ensuing months will go understandably to the Cornell guys (and gals), but truly MUCH recognition ought to also be directed to David Luneau, Bob Russell, Mary Scott, and others unsung who, in the presence of deaf ears, have been telling us for years that the habitat IS OUT THERE, and who specifically honed-in on the Arkansas region. THANKS guys, for leading the way when others, with their words... or their silence, failed to do so...."
.............................................................

Actually, there will be yet some others, not commonly associated with Ivory-bills, soon getting headlines, but the basic above points still hold. As has been written before, in terms of habitat, both historically and currently, Florida most likely holds the most Ivory-bills, followed by Louisiana and Mississippi. At best, the Arkansas population may only be fourth on the list and it could conceivably be as low as 8th (behind Ga., Al., S.C., and TX.), though I'd be doubtful of that. Still, Scott W.'s insight should be a "revelation" for all.
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-- That Magic Guy (+addendum) --

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I'd been trying to avoid all this but for anyone not already aware of it, "Bill 'Magic Guy' Smith" has long claimed Ivory-bill finds in Florida and has now posted a fuller-sized version of his controversial photo from many months ago here:

http://www.birdforum.net/attachment.php?attachmentid=55456

His no-longer-active website is here:

http://billismad.tripod.com/mysearchfortheivorybilledwoodpecker/index.html

And if you haven't been following the current debate on BirdForum (Ivory-bill 'formerly Updates' thread) you can go here and read backwards to try and to play catchup on Bill's claims.

http://www.birdforum.net/showthread.php?p=660169#post660169

I remain highly skeptical of his picture and reports for reasons I won't elaborate, but am glad to see he is at least finally taking time to defend his position publicly and thereby possibly persuading myself and other doubters of his unusual claims at some point. But I place the links here only for my readers' interest and so they can make up their own minds, NOT as an endorsement of his claims which I don't find credible thus far (though I'd be thrilled to be wrong on this), and which will likely be made somewhat moot in the near future anyway.

Also, on another BirdForum Ivory-bill thread 'Insights and Current Reports,' for any obsessive-compulsive folks not already aware of it, there is ongoing discussion/analysis of Mike Collins' latest video claims from his Pearl River search last season:

http://www.birdforum.net/showthread.php?p=660169#post660169

or, go directly to his site: http://www.fishcrow.com/winter06.html

ADDENDUM: I think I'll carry this one step further -- "Bill" has repeatedly indicated contacts with Fla. state officials (FWS and/or others) who are aware of his claims and know of the presence of IBWOs and may in fact even have their own photos. I would be interested... needless to say... to hear from any such official through email (confidentiality assured) who can verify the agency he/she works with, and who has met with Bill and is willing to vouch for the credibility/veracity/validity (whatever) of Bill's claims: cyberthrush@wildmail.com
Or, any such official who has met with Bill and cares to pass along information otherwise may also write.
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-- Attn: Boston Terrier Lovers --

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OFF-TOPIC Sidebar:

Many, if not most of you are familiar with Julie Zickefoose, fine bird artist, wonderful nature writer, (and IBWO enthusiast). You may or may not know of her adopted 4-legged child, "Chet Baker," a Boston Terrier who runs his own internet blog (but allows Julie to attach her name to it). Anyway, Chet is ill, causing Julie much high anxiety. If you're a pet-lover, dog-lover, or certainly a Boston Terrier-lover you might want to drop her a line with your positive thoughts:

http://www.juliezickefoose.com/blog/index.php
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-- 1 Year Ago Today --

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Below is a verbatim copy of a post I made exactly one year ago (Aug. 17, 2005), worth repeating I think, because these 21 sightings represent only the tip of the iceberg of Ivory-bill reports over the years, and yet clearly indicate the potential breadth of distribution of this species, so hastily written off (again and again and again). Please show me a map of the credible reports of Passenger Pigeons or Carolina Parakeets over that same time period. I suspect the difference would be stunning, and telling:

"Planning your next IBWO search?: here's a link to a nice range map from Birder's World Magazine listing 21 of the most notable Ivorybill sightings since 1944 (out of 100's of reports that have been made over that time -- there have, for example, been many more rumors of IBWOs in Texas, South Carolina, and Louisiana than herein indicated). Map does illustrate how IBWO sightings have been distributed across a large chunk of the species' old range, and certainly not confined to any one state or area."

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-- Cha-Cha-Cha --

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just dancin' the night away (well, in my head anyway)... and noticing, for-what-its-worth, that American southern geography is chockfull of wonderful, choice-sounding names like, Chattanooga, Cherokee, Chickasaw, Choctawhatchee, Chokoloskee, Chatooga, Chipola, Chippewa, Chattahoochee. Charming, ehhhh? Apalachicola and Atchafalaya kinda roll off the tongue real nice too, and several others too numerous to mention. So many places, and so many imponderables, and so little thyme... in the garden.

-- Ciao, or should I say, Cheers

... ohhh, on a side note, and sorry to get so commercial, but in case you're into juicing, I bought a Breville Juicer machine awhile back (available on the Web, if not locally), and highly recommend it -- has a large, accomodating food corridor that I just put an incredible 9 PEARS through; maybe even more possible... but enough marketing for the moment (you can always check out eBay for Ivory-bill-related items here).
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-- Match Game --

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Pens and pads ready? Today, time out for a pop quiz ---
Can you correctly match up these first and last names of some accomplished birders/ornithologists from past and present:


1. Cliff ........................... a. Short
2. Steve ........................ b. McGowan
3. Lester ....................... c. Kroodsma
4. Joel .......................... d. Shackleford
5. Pete .......................... e. Parker
6. Theodore .................. f. Nowicki
7. Geoff ........................ g. Vleck
8. Donald ...................... h. Weidensaul
9. Clay .......................... i. Hill
10. Kevin ....................... j. Dunne
11. Carol ....................... k. Sutton
12. Scott ........................ l. Welty

============================================

correct answers below:
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

1d, 2f, 3a, 4l, 5j, 6e, 7i, 8c, 9k, 10b, 11g, 12h

Scoring:

10-12 right --- Excellent
7-9 --- Good
5-6 --- Fair
3-4 --- Not As Good
0-2 --- probably a Tom Nelson disciple
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-- AOU Meeting --

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About a month-and-a-half ago a certain blogmeister up Minnesota-way wrote the following in reference to this year's American Ornithologists' Union upcoming October meeting in Veracruz (which he probably won't be attending, or having much fun at if he does) :

"Here is a link to the scientific program. I see some Cornell names there, but I don't see any mention of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. Can anyone out there predict what (if anything) will happen, Ivory-bill-wise, at that meeting? "

I suspect by now some folks reading this could make those predictions... but geee... why spoil the suspense for him.
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-- The Power of the Web --

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Lo and behold (it's a little scary!)... back on July 20th I wrote a post in reference to an Internet outfit that was selling Ivory-bill-related T-shirts and rather tongue-in-cheek suggested several options they should add to their line-up. They've now actually added some of those:

http://www.cafepress.com/servopuff/1726766

...wonderful, the influence of the Web --- I don't have any connection/ties to this company, so go ahead and buy up a dozen-or-so of them T-shirts; they'll make nifty Columbus Day presents. And if any of YOU have suggestions you'd like to see reach fruition in the future just send them along to me on the back of a $20 bill and I'll see what I can do ; - )
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-- Another Anniversary --

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This month marks the 40-year anniversary since birders Bedford Brown Jr. and Jeffrey Sanders reported watching a PAIR of Ivory-bills scaling beetle-infested pines for 16 MINUTES near Eglin Air Force Base (1966), in a sighting that John Dennis regarded as valid. Somewhat interesting, for what it's worth, that Mike Collins' current IBWO claims come from near Stennis Space Center in Mississippi, and furthermore, in general, I now get an unusual number of 'hits' at my blog originating from military bases -- does the military or Air Force know something others don't, or just a lot of birders serving in uniform these days???
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-- Gotta Have One --

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If you just kent get enough Ivory-bill wares to suit you, one of the companies making those plush little audible bird toys most of you are probably familiar with, has come out with a wonderful Ivory-billed Woodpecker edition. Look for it at your local retailer/bird store or go here on the internet:

http://www.tableandhome.com/prodhiagc

....and you'll probably want to purchase one before the price goes up.
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-- Varieties of Skepticism --

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There's skepticism... and then there's schlepticism ; - ), of the sort that overwhelms the Web. Many will be surprised to hear me say I know few people more skeptical by nature than myself -- only my skepticism runs the gamut across all of science (not to mention government, religion, business, art, and oh yeah, tarot reading). Long ago I cancelled membership in a well-known international "skeptics" organization having become too skeptical of their biases and approach to matters. Having worked most of my adulthood in genetics and medicine I remain highly skeptical of those fields (and the life sciences in general) -- they are chockfull of imprecision, built-in biases, unspoken assumptions, and poorly-thought-out methodologies (not to mention fudged data and experimentation), rarely acknowledged in public. Indeed, most money spent in science is poured down a rat hole... BUUUT, that's simply the price we pay for the brilliant and life-changing science which, through it all, bubbles to the surface -- still, few in the public understand the process.

Anyway, my skepticism doesn't begin in 2005 like so much of the Web-based blathering, or for that matter with Ivory-bill reports of the 1950's; it begins with the 1942 release of James Tanner's study and followup commentary. Once one realizes, critically, the weakness of the generalizations/conclusions in that work it changes how one approaches all future claims/reports/evidence on the subject -- extinction was a possibility, but in terms of probabilities, which is all science can ever go on, that possibility (of extinction) was slim given the multitude of ongoing reports to the contrary (technically, there is NEVER PROOF in science, only evidence and probabilities -- go channel Heisenberg, or better yet Godel, if you don't understand this... or just skip it 'cuz it ain't worth arguing over). For 60 years the evidence and probabilities have simply pointed opposite of what most so-called skeptics think about IBWOs. And so while schleptics continue to believe in something (extinction) that CANNOT be substantiated in the near term (and lacks any good evidence) I believe in something that can... and will.
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-- Mr. Cyberthrush's Neighborhood --

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Hey boys and girls can you say "c-o-n-s-e-r-v-a-t-i-o-n," or how about "l-a-n-d a-c-q-u-i-s-i-t-i-o-n," or maybe "r-e-g-u-l-a-t-o-r-y c-o-d-e-s," or "r-e-s-e-a-r-c-h p-r-o-t-o-c-o-l-s" --- these are a few of the important things that must be set in place before any local Ivory-bill recovery plans can be announced, and often they require time. Once accomplished though there just might be some supercalifragilisticexpialadocious news.
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-- So Ya Wanna Be An Ornithologist --

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-- in that case you might want to check out all the graduate programs you have to choose from (...a lot more than just Cornell out there):

http://www.ummz.umich.edu/birds/Gradwinweb.html
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