-- The IB Woodpecker Helps Avoid a Depression --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Changing subjects, for a moment....

The role of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker in saving America from financial collapse! :-):

This article tells of the pressures on finance guru Henry Paulson (a birdwatcher no less) at the peak of America's credit crunch and financial crisis. But here's the pertinent passage:

"During infrequent interludes of downtime, Paulson tried to relax by going bird-watching -- while travelling on government business, he sometimes found a few hours at foreign summits to go off in seek of a glimpse of the local avian species. But even birds weren't enough to take his mind off work during the week of Bear Stearns' collapse. Paulson writes that he and his wife took an evening off to go and see "The Lord God Bird", a documentary about the ivory-billed woodpecker, at the National Geographic Society. As he struggled to make small talk with environmental movie enthusiasts, Paulson was scolded by his wife for discourtesy."

And this article quotes directly from Paulson's memoir:

"That evening Wendy and I went to the National Geographic Society to see The Lord God Bird, a terrific documentary on the ivory-billed woodpecker, a bird so spectacular it made people say Lord God!! Normally, I would have enjoyed this immensely, but I was preoccupied with Bear Stearns. Every time one of our friends from the environmental community came over, I would look right through them. Wendy got really upset with me.

“I understand that you’re under pressure,” she said, “but that’s no excuse for not being courteous to people.”
“I am being courteous to everyone,” I protested.
“You aren’t saying anything to them except ‘Hi.’” I apologized, adding, “I’m worried about the world falling apart!”

Never underestimate the reach of the Lord God Bird into the halls of power.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Throwin' Down The Gauntlet --

------------------------------------------------------------------------

So far as I can tell, the Rainsong/Hepperles have now done everything necessary to legally insure their claim to an Ivory-billed Woodpecker sighting, and the photos that demonstrate it!!! (Hip hip hooray... yawn). There is no reason left for secrecy, confidentiality, or holding back on their part --- their legal standing (about which they were so concerned), is established...

I therefore challenge them, in fact triple dog DARE them, indeed IMMMPLORE them, to now place the two splendid photos in question on the internet (or direct the proper investigators to do so) for the world to see and judge and comment upon (hey, Joe, think how many more hits your wacky website will get if you upload the pics --- I absolutely, positively GARRR-AN-TEEE it!! ...just no fudgin' with 'em beforehand, OK).

Let the games begin...

(someone wake me up if he actually has the gumption to do it...)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Waiting --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

While we await for authorities to resolve the Rainsong situation, Radd Icenoggle (great name, by the way!) takes a stab at categorizing bird hoaxes of the past in this blog post:

http://tinyurl.com/yb7z3ly

Meanwhile, FWIW, here are a few other tangential webpages that might harbor teensy elements of pertinence to the Sabine River story... or, NOT:

http://www.gamblingphd.com/gambling-psychology.htm

http://tinyurl.com/yblyse5

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/15_minutes_of_fame

http://tinyurl.com/6qa7ar
(Clifford Irving was sentenced to 2 years of jail-time for his money-scheming book hoax --- sometimes the best avenue a claimant can take is to make a full and public apology, in exchange for walking away, before evidence is gathered to prosecute for fraud/jail-time.)

(p.s. -- if this case hasn't been closed by the end of today I'll issue my own challenge-of-sorts to the situation come Monday... stay tuned.)

Some readers, I realize, are fascinated by the whole affair (like craning your neck at a roadside accident) and glad for efforts here to track it (Jan.19 - 28 posts), even if much can't be divulged, but others are already bored stiff and sick of hearing about it. I can only say that hoaxes represent the bottom-of-the-barrel for me and anything smacking of one ought be torpedoed (or vindicated) as soon as possible --- unfortunately, fraudulent storylines can be hard to 100% DISprove --- come to think of it, I saw 3 Ivory-bills fly over my backyard just last week; it vividly sticks in my memory because one of them was carrying a Carolina Parakeet in its beak... uhhh, "prove" that it didn't happen.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Sorry... I Just Can't Resist --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------



( http://tinyurl.com/djwqmd )

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Into The Weekend --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Was looking for something upbeat to head into the weekend with, but not much out there, so will just use one of Snowball-the-Dancing-Cockatoo's old videos (always entertaining):



( http://tinyurl.com/djjqu4 )
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- And Back to Rainsong (More Questions) --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Other posts covering the Daniel Rainsong yarn run from Jan. 19 to Jan 26]


Just some questions rhetorically posed to those in charge of the investigation:

What sort of forensic analysis of the photos has been, or is currently being conducted (if any)?

Have any individuals been dispatched to the GPS coordinates for the Sabine sighting site (to look for rope, climbing gear, tools, footprints leading to the tree of interest, whatever, or hey, Ivory-billed Woodpeckers)?

Have you traced Rainsong's travels, whereabouts, timeline, contacts, since he left the Sabine River Basin?

How does Rainsong's storyline match up to that of any claimed traveling partners?

Have all the other frames of Rainsong's photoshoot been studied at this point?

What (if anything) do the timestamps reveal?

Any linkage yet uncovered to still other family members besides Dan and Joe?

Have you interviewed "Joe Hepperle" at length?

How many total prior trips did Rainsong make to the specific Sabine River Basin location before the fateful 2-week holiday excursion?

What are Rainsong's woodworking skills (or maybe plaster-of-Paris)?

(some of these I actually already have partial answers to, but still worth putting in print)

Can't verify it, but according to at least one source (who I'll simply call "DeepBeak" ;-)), Rainsong's storyline has suffered significant inconsistencies under the scrutiny of interrogation. And yet, it appears that investigators are trying to cross all their T's and dot all their i's before making any public pronouncements. Since hardly anyone is taking the case very seriously in cyberspace maybe it doesn't even matter, but I would so like to see this over before the weekend is over, and Mr. Rainsong can go back to dabbling in silly Blackjack theories (or, if this proves to be fraud is it legally prosecutable?).

Over the decades many Ivory-billed sightings have been followed up on within 48 hrs., always to no avail (as far as definitive confirmation), and yet to believe Mr. Rainsong's bravado he is going to lead investigators back to find a lone bird he spotted over 30 days ago in a vast area (actually he DIDN'T spot it, it just showed up when reviewing his film later). If the bird was there it would be an incredible task... with the bird not there, it's more like... an impossible bluff.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Gotta Love the 60's --

------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm feeling a little nostalgic today, so no birds, just a li'l blast from the past:


( http://tinyurl.com/ybdk95m )
------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- ...In Other News --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

....in other news:

Mark Bailey of "Hog Foot Holler" blog informs me of an upcoming book by wonderful artist Stephen Lyn Bales (in collaboration with Nancy Tanner) that will detail the years of James Tanner's Ivory-bill studies. Sounds GREAT! (tentatively titled "James Tanner and the Ivory-bill," the manuscript was only turned in last December so could be awhile before appearing in bookstores, but I'm sure many readers here will want to watch for it).

Was hoping for the Rainsong story to fully deflate before turning comments back on. There are just certain specifics and details I don't want discussed here (and certain ones I'm sure investigators don't want disclosed either for that matter), and it is easiest to insure that by keeping comments closed. However, I've now turned them back on in 'full moderation mode,' which means they won't appear until approved (and since I'm often away from the computer for 6 - 8+ hrs. a day, understand that can take awhile, and I will be selective).

Bill Pulliam's latest thoughts here:

http://bbill.blogspot.com/2010/01/recent-history.html

----------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Intermission... --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Sabine River "claims" are addressed in the previous 14 posts, but for right now just need to chill-out:


( http://tinyurl.com/yetw3t5 )
----------------------------------------------------------------

-- Winding Down? --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

I've seen enough at this point to believe this entire episode may soon unwind to its ignominious conclusion. As I said back at the beginning, no reason to hold one's breath.
(And sorry, probably won't be responding with any specifics to email questions, but will have much to say when/if the end comes, I'd like to think before end of week, but who knows.)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Limbo --

------------------------------------------------------------------------

I mostly receive information that is 2nd, 3rd, or 4th-hand in nature, and it's possible for elements of that material to change (and be less accurate) as it gets passed along the way (the old 'telephone' game). Am therefore feeling constrained from reporting specifics that I can't independently verify right now with multiple sources, even when I know the people emailing are honestly trying to pass along accurate, but fragmented, information (and even when they give permission to report it). Not sure how much I'll say beyond vague generalities for time being.

Would again be best if those University and/or Government ornithologists now most directly familiar with the story/evidence made some simple initial public statement regarding level of plausibility they find in Mr. Rainsong's evidence, and the likelihood of further follow-up (they can always revise it later, as needed). I suspect technical analysis and validation of the photos could take some time, and it may be their intention, unfortunately, to say nothing until that is complete.
By the way, I think it HHHIGHLY important that Rainsong's traveling partner NOW be interviewed at LENGTH (assuming Rainsong will release her contact info) if this has not already been done.

It seems clear at this point though, the only way this story will have a truly favorable resolution is if Mr. Rainsong can indeed lead ornithologists to a living Ivory-billed Woodpecker (the photos are far from conclusive), at which point a handsome monetary reward indeed awaits him. Short of that, or a finding of fraud, we will be left with yet another dead-end in this long excruciating drawn-out Ivory-bill saga... and, a whole lot of questions.

....Lastly, genuine THANKS to all of you who are trying to send good information my way --- if it isn't incorporated on the blog don't assume it means I don't believe you! --- there are many reasons I don't post material --- Sometimes, Person A says 'here's some info for your blog, just don't attach my name to it,' but Person B comes along with the very same info saying this is 'confidential so please don't post on blog' --- in which case the info won't appear, and, there are other complications. But thanks for all your efforts. I'm fairly confident we'll get to the bottom of this in short order, though I still doubt it will be a happy landing, but time will tell.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

-- FLASH! + addenda --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

First off, I've now received significant indication from a single source, but one I consider credible, that the Rainsong story could be a sincere effort, and the pics might even be interesting enough to warrant followup (they are certainly not slam-dunk photos of Ivory-bills). I'm unable to verify any of this yet, but at least it's a glimmer. Of course, even a case of sincere mistaken identification would be far preferable to a hoax, and if there is follow-up by the individuals I've seen named it would be an incredible turn of events, even if... once again nothing is eventually resolved.
Combining that with the fact that none of the named experts in the original press release has yet to openly rebuke the story, I can only say the plot thickens for the moment. It would be nice if someone in authority (a University figure) could step forward and make a public statement on where things stand. (And I'll apologize to Mr. Rainsong here if it is proven that his excursion was even a naive, misbegotten, but genuine endeavor, let alone if Ivory-bills arise from it.) There's still a lot of dust to settle.

To all those who have been sending me background material on the Hepperles, thank you; most of it I already had, but a few new tidbits keep coming in (and yes I'm now convinced that Dan/Joe are two separate individuals, almost certainly brothers, who have simply lived very parallel lives). Obviously though under the circumstances, I'll be holding my fire, no matter what their backgrounds look like, while awaiting for things to further clarify.

This is possibly the most bizarre story yet in 60 years of the Ivory-bill saga, regardless of how it ends.
Had some other things I was planning to discuss today, but the new turn of events puts those matters on a back-burner.

Quick Addendum: info is very much in flux at this point (I'm already getting some mixed signals) and may stay that way for awhile, so just want to stress for clarity that what is "FLASH"-worthy about the above news (from my standpoint) is NOT so much the possibility that IBWOs have been discovered (still unlikely), but the possibility that the storyline being told might at least be honest/sincere.

Addendum II: sorry for the insanity... but because of emails I'm getting, trying to walk a very fine line here and be clear: NOTHING has changed any of the earmarks of a hoax that surround (saturate?) this story; they still exist. What has been added though is that some key figures who have directly talked to Rainsong and seen his pics are showing an interest in his claims. The photos have not been technically analyzed and are not at all conclusive, and frankly for all I know the interested individuals could even be being played for suckers, but at least it is a first indication that the claim may not be immediately dismissible, and that could be encouraging.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Miscellany --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'll just note that ornithologist Stephen J. Dinsmore of Iowa State University, who Rainsong claims as a contact, and who was active on the Iowa birding listserv the first 3 weekends of this month, has not posted anything thus far this weekend (the Rainsong story broke last Tue). No doubt his email and phoneline are bulging. Hopefully, any silence from him or Dr. Van Remsen at LSU might be broken later this week...? (supposedly Rainsong was to re-meet with Remsen by now?) [Addendum FWIW: Both Drs. Dinsmore and Remsen did have posts, totally unrelated to the Rainsong matter, on their respective listservs on the following Tue.]

Bill Pulliam has posted at his blog some of the background material which I've been reluctant to make explicit here (while I'm still trying to nail down some other elements), but now it's out there:

http://bbill.blogspot.com/2010/01/facts-on-hepperle-and-rainsong.html [sorry, Bill's post now seems to have been taken down]

I think this is Kenneth Joe Hepperle's last entry on his own site regarding the matter (unless by the time you see this there's a newer entry):

http://www.joehepperle.com/Joe/Opinion/Ibw.htm

[By the way, it is still not even 100% clear to me if "Daniel Dean Rainsong" and "Kenneth Joseph Hepperle" are two different people (brothers?) or just possibly one-and-the-same person; that's what a convoluted mess this whole matter is at this point.]
-------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Questions --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Just some of the very basic initial questions I'd want Mr. Rainsong to answer:

How many days were Ivory-bills seen on? And how many total Ivory-bills seen?
Were they seen both flying and perched?
Were they seen going into or out of tree cavities?
Were they seen foraging for food? Or ever seen on ground-level?
What (approximately) is the closest distance you got to the Ivory-bills?
Roughly speaking, how many Pileated Woodpeckers did you see on a typical day along Sabine? Also, how many Red-headed Woodpeckers on a typical day?
Did you ever see both Pileateds and Ivory-bills together in same area?
Other than Ivory-bills, did you see any other interesting or unusual birds during the trip?
Did you cross paths with any other birders/hunters/outdoorsmen while on the expedition?
What determined the 2-week limit to the planned outing?
Do you have any receipts indicating your presence in the Sabine River Basin over the time you say you were there?
Are the photos of perched or flying birds? Describe the pose of the bird(s) photographed? Is there video, of the birds or at least of the area?
Were the photos in question taken by you or your accompanying photographer?
I believe only two photos have been mentioned, taken by "film,"... what is on the remainder of film roll (is it all from the Sabine area), and how many total exposures are there? (or, if digital, clarify that that is the case)
Who were the first two University persons you contacted about your findings/photos and how did you contact them?
What led you to go to the specific area you searched? Or did you already know from past experience that the birds were there (if so, when did you learn of their presence)?
Have you looked for Ivory-bills in other locations? states?
What brand/model binoculars were you using, if you used binoculars?
Did you write down any field notes of your encounters with the IBWOs in some sort of notebook?
How much, if any, of your proposed book, was already written prior to the Sabine outing?
Is this book to be self-published, and how many books have you self-published in the past?
Will the book still be published if there is no monetary reward for your photos?
How far in advance was the trip set up and organized before placing an ad for a traveling companion?
How many previous trips had you made to this particular area?
Who specifically was with you on the expedition, and will they be speaking about their experience at some point? Can they be contacted?
There are any number of birders/scientists who might've loved to have gone on such an excursion; what possessed you to place an ad on Craigslist to find a partner likely with fewer credentials? Or was that just the quickest, broadest way to attract a wide variety of applicants on short notice?
How many applicants did you interview and what criteria finalized your selection?
Summarize your own previous birding experience and that of your traveling companion?
Explain your logic in doing the "press-release" prior to having any photos confirmed or authenticated?
What has been the chronology of your travels and activities since departing the Sabine area?
What classes (major?) did you take at Iowa State University, and did you graduate?
What is your current or most recent full-time occupation? (What permits you the time, opportunity, expense, to drive between various states/locales hand-delivering photos?)
What are your main hobbies?
What is your relationship to Kenneth Joseph Hepperle?
Where does the name "Rainsong" come from?

If by any chance all these questions were answered satisfactorily, I have an entirely different line of questions I'd want to ask.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Of Hens and Ducks --

----------------------------------------------------------------

Some loose ends...

J. Hepperle makes a big deal about me casting aspersions on the current claim while never trying to contact "Rainsong" directly with questions. First off, he doesn't know whether or not I attempted to contact Rainsong, who's email is readily available, since I would use another name, not "Cyberthrush," if I were to do so. But moreover, I'll put it this way: if you are trying to find out the health of the hens in the henhouse, you don't go about it by asking the fox who's standing outside...

For those who haven't read Rainsong's original Craigslist ad, I'll just point out that he apparently already had a book planned before this li'l 14 day excursion and IBWO pics were even completed (and was operating under the mistaken belief that producing an Ivory-bill photo would bring in a $10,000 reward). Kinda reminds one of a certain magical Florida fellow... for those who know the history.

....and I'll throw out one further wild speculation: I think it possible that Joe Hepperle is being aided and abetted in this venture by a certain individual active in the 'believer' community... hope I'm wrong about that, just a loose unsubstantiated gut feeling, but there are some indications I can't totally ignore.

Otherwise, nothing much has changed with this story; just glad to see most birders, blogs etc., reacting in an appropriately cynical way (in this instance).

If it walks like a duck, and it quacks like a duck... it's probably not a scarlet macaw.
------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Friday P.M. --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Over at "10,000 Birds" blog Corey's link to the Rainsong story is titled "I Feel Unclean Even Linking to It..."
Amen to that....

Am genuinely sorry that I probably won't re-open comments before Monday (if then), while awaiting for the air to come out of this farce that is catapulting around the Internet.

Let me clarify one thing (so no one thinks I was trying to shut out "Joe Hepperle's" defense of matters by closing down comments this A.M.):

1) I actually left for work about 20 mins. late this morning just so I could stick around and let Joe have his say with his morning comments that were coming into the blog right at the time I was about to depart for day and switch further comments off.

2) I should've made clearer that a major factor in turning comments off was a concern that specific derogatory material about "Dan/Joe" could find its way into the comments... I don't want to deal in that specific material here, beyond reiterating broadly that what I've seen lends NO CREDIBILITY to the storyline being pushed (I'm sorry if it seems unfair to talk in generalities and not give specific details, but many people probably have some dirty laundry in their past; the internet isn't the best place to have it raked over).

When this has run its course (and I can't believe it's going to last very long) MAYBE I'll have some sort of summation. Meantime, have a good weekend all, and get some sleep... I know I hope to, for a change.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Friday A.M. --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Will again be away from computer much of day, and unfortunately feel need to shut off comments for now lest things spin out of control while absent... may turn back on this evening or perhaps not 'til Mon. depending how things transpire and cool down. ...Sorry about this, but don't wish to dwell on this story any moreso than necessary.
Obviously, my opinion is stated; should anything come in via email or otherwise to alter it or account for certain things, will post about it ASAP. But for now, I'd just say 'move along, nothing to see here;' plenty of other bird news elsewhere.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- And More... --

--------------------------------------------------------------------

GREAT job by a reader/commenter piecing together Daniel Rainsong's original CraigsList ad for this expedition. See here:

http://tinyurl.com/yep8ub5  [ now updated here: http://tinyurl.com/ydysy5d ]

THANKS Kirk!!


Interesting stuff, but as I indicated briefly in a "Note" below an entirely different line of evidence, I'm not comfortable stating publicly, now causes me to place NO conceivable credibility whatsoever in this story/report. NADA... ZIPPO... ZILCH!!!!!! (hope I'm making myself clear).
---------------------------------------------------------------------