-- Pics (OT) --

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I assume this is for real, though seems improbable(?) :

http://tinyurl.com/yktogwg

(check out the rest of the pics at this site as well, by clicking directly on each pic to bring up the next one! --- but not while you're about to sit down for a Holiday meal!!)

....and a Happy (belated) Festivus to everyone!
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-- Need a Calendar? --

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For all you last-minute Xmas shoppers (...okay, it's probably too late to order for Christmas), your 2010 Hooters Calender is available here (...gotta LUV the cover!):

http://www.zazzle.com/hooters_2010_calendar-158194560331473194

....or view a sample here from 2009:

http://joe-ks.com/HootersCalendar2009.pdf
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-- Rohrbaugh On the 'Romeo Error' --

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Cornell's Ron Rohrbaugh speaks with the Cornell Chronicle here:

http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/Dec09/DefineExtinctions.html

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-- Largest Search Ever Coming this Winter --

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....but NOT for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. Worldwide search for the Slender-billed Curlew, "Europe's most enigmatic bird," will commence this winter:

http://www.surfbirds.com/sbirdsnews/archives/2009/12/wise_men_search.html

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-- The Ivory-billed Woodpecker... and Physics --

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Just a quite old post from another blog, but I've got to love it when the Ivory-billed Woodpecker and physics are discussed in the same breath:

http://tinyurl.com/yle6rhs

(maybe 2010 will be the year to confirm both the Higgs boson and the IBWO... or, maybe not)

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-- Keeping the Beat --

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Not IBWO, but in a comment further down "onthecoyle" notes the below YouTube clip in which a Pileated Woodpecker on a window ledge interestingly mimics the knocks (rhythm and number) produced by human observers inside. Great look at a great bird, and fascinating behavior... :




ADDENDUM: still a great look at a great bird, but unfortunately the "behavior" has now been readily explained away; see comment below.
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-- Another Search Technology --

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A new acoustic monitoring technology to aid searching is described by Mark Gahler over at IBWO Researchers Forum here:

http://www.ibwo.net/forum/showpost.php?p=5314&postcount=5

with further details at the individual's website here:

http://www.south-run.com/
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-- If Only the Ivory-billed Woodpecker Was an Email ;-) --

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HERE...
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-- "Ghost Bird" Director Interviewed --

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9-minute interview with Scott Crocker, director of "Ghost Bird":




...and here a momentarily-captive Pileated Woodpecker (juvenile??) making a call unusual for them:



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-- 'Putting Miles of Swamp' Between Them and Us? --

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"If there is one ivory-bill still alive, there have to be more. A reproducing population, making more ivorybills, generations enough to span sixty years. Must we trap them in their roost holes, and bundle them into cages, these mythic beings with their wild eyes and fiery crests? Given a choice between such intervention and certain extinction, and the intellect to consider it, what would an ivory-bill choose? I imagine it flying away, in a long, straight line, putting miles of swamp between it and the further workings of humanity."

-- From Julie Zickefoose's NPR commentary broadcast 4 years ago following the announcement of discovering an Ivory-billed Woodpecker in Arkansas [she is referencing here, BTW, the Calif. Condor recovery program instituted to save that species].

While we await further summary info or plans for the coming season, a reminder that you can bring up
miscellaneous, IBWO-related topics you're interested in at the 'Permanent Open Thread' here (scroll down, I've marked off where any December discussion begins):

http://ivorybills.blogspot.com/2009/11/permanent-open-thread.html

Or if you have something longer to say enter the 'contest' here:

http://ivorybills.blogspot.com/2009/12/contest-you-too-can-be-blogger.html
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-- CONTEST!: You Too Can Be a Blogger!!! --

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Never had a contest here before... better late than never! (hopefully there will be contestants!?)...

Here's what I've got in mind:

You have ideas, conclusions, or a take on the whole Ivory-bill story that maybe hasn't been adequately expressed yet? Or something's just buggin' you that needs said. This is your chance...
Write a potential blog post, MAXimum 1000 words (minimum, 47 words :-)), about any aspect of the Ivory-bill search, or possibilities of extinction or existence, that you like; this can be from either a skeptical or a 'believer' standpoint. Send it to me by Jan. 2 upcoming, and I'll pick the entry I like best to run as a blog post that first week in January (if there are multiple ones that I like enough, might choose honorable mentions to also run as posts). Sorry, no $$$, no door prizes, no Caribbean cruises, just the recognition of being the first-ever guest blogger here at 'Ivory-bills LiVE.'

(BTW, don't necessarily try to mimic views I espouse here myself, that won't help you; I'll be looking for entries that thoughtfully, or creatively, or convincingly present some significant point-of-view whatever that view may be --- could be on a very narrow aspect or a broad, general theme regarding IBWO; could be highly empirical, or experiential, or just commonsensical (...and multiple entries from 1 person are okay also).

Please email to me at: cyberthrush[AT]gmail.com (by midnight, Jan. 2, 2010)

I prefer entries to have real names attached to them, or if you are better known across the Web under some given pseudonym that is ok (if you feel you can only enter anonymously, explain why that is the case and I'll consider "Anonymous" entries).

Ready... Set... Commence writing. . . . .
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-- Just For Inspiration --

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Anyone who follows astronomy much, knows that a great many first-time discoveries in the profession have actually been made by amateurs or hobbyists. For a lot of reasons astronomy is a scientific field that lends itself to non-professionals making significant contributions. Related story here:

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Space/story?id=8221167&page=1

Similarly in birding, copious amounts of data and findings are contributed every year not by professional ornithologists, but weekend birders practicing their passion...
As the academics who are immersed in avian science Mon.-Fri. retreat from the Ivory-bill search, it will be left up to weekend hobbyist-types to carry on. ...Worth remembering perhaps, that it wasn't ornithology grad student James Tanner who originally re-discovered/documented the Ivory-bill back in the 1930's, but country bumpkin-of-sorts Mason Spencer.
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-- Last Man Standing? --

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Kinda wondrin' if there may be a last IBWO website standing at some point?.... Mary Scott took down the majority of her Ivory-bill pages long ago; and of course Steve Sheridan's long-time and Gary Erdy's short-term sites vanished well in the past. I suspect The Nature Conservancy Ivory-bill site may fade from existence at some point, and even the sites from USFW and Cornell will likely get whittled down to a fraction of their former selves over time. Bobby Harrison and David Luneau only post occasionally at their respective websites. Recently, the IBWO Researchers Forum was asking for $$$, reminding members that their site costs money to keep running. Mike Collins at one point said he was 'retiring' from the Pearl River search (although he has since removed that posting from his journal). Geoff Hill wrote last August that, short of getting a photo, he wouldn't be doing any more updates to his Auburn IBWO site. With the exception of Bill Pulliam's site even most birding blogs don't report on the Ivory-bill story any longer, short of a crystal-clear photo coming along. What does the future hold?

I only get messages sporadically and second-hand from official sources anymore, but what little I do hear leads me to surmise that key people at Cornell may even have significant doubts about their own evidence at this point and might be inching away from the story (that's just me interpreting certain emails I get, since Cornell says little on their own behalf anymore). If their final report is as weak as I expect it to be, that may say a lot (on the surface it could appear hopeful, while a more critical reading between the lines may disclose a shallower document, possibly with a lot of ecological information, but little really promising for the Ivory-bill... again, just speculatin' here).

Worse yet, I still believe that a large-scale academic team approach was by far the best chance for documenting this species, yet has failed to do so. Am seriously doubtful that any independent searcher can accomplish the task, although someone might get a good enough sighting to attract dozens of other birders in who then finally document the birds' existence if methodically organized. More power (and fame and fortune) to any independent who does succeed.

Moreover, I see no way to piece together the totality of IBWO evidence in a nice, clean, logical manner at this point --- any explanation given for the overall findings runs into major problems/contradictions, whether you believe the species exists or is extinct --- just my disconcerting view. A catch-22 all the way around: one can only explain the IBWO's existence by employing arguments which in turn imply counter-arguments for its very extinction (in short, any view one takes holds the very seeds for the opposing view).

Well, "Ivory-bills LiVE" will be here as an information hub whether others stick around or not, continually attempting to sort through the evidence and ideas on-hand, positive or negative. And once current final summaries are out I'll draw my own independent conclusions of where things stand.
For now at least, a good number of folks will continue to follow this story... but harder to predict how many will be left standing (...or posting) 6-12 months from now, when the story could have no legs left. My intuitive/gut hunch says the documentation will... somehow... emerge in that time-frame... but my empirical sense says... it won't. The countdown begins.
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-- Job Posting --

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Interested parties:

Posting for a 'woodpecker research technician' (Feb.-Jun. 2010) in Arkansas here :

http://www.nature.com/naturejobs/science/jobs/120737-Woodpecker-Research-Technician

(...some place called the "Cache River National Wildlife Refuge")
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-- Flying Far Afield --

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Just an upbeat report on the California Condor recovery program below. It's an 11-minute clip, but I've only really selected it because of a couple off-hand, interesting comments within the first 2 minutes, when a participant mentions that the first captive-bred birds let loose in Arizona initially flew 300-400 miles away (to Wyoming), and no one knows why, before returning and establishing a territory. ...If young Ivory-bills routinely flew even half that far when dispersing it might help explain some of the geographically-disparate claims made for IBWOs over decades (of course, comparing IBWOs to Condors may make no sense at all from the get-go!):


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-- Giving Thanks --

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I've generally done some sort of 'things-I'm-thankful-for' post at this time of year... so in the Holiday spirit, 10 things I'm grateful for this year:

10. Tim Dee's book, "A Year On the Wing: Four Seasons In a Life With Birds"
9. Apple Computer/Steve Jobs
8. Twitter
7. Internet music radio
6. A Vice-President of the U.S. named "Joe" and not "Sarah" (...or "Dick")
5. Birds of the world from hummers to parrots, wrens to raptors, puddle ducks to seabirds; luv 'em all!
4. Small entrepreneurs and risk-takers who persist in a world of corporate behemoths
3. The Hubble telescope
2. A job

1. Thankful the country is in no worse, horrendous, calamitous, decrepit, financially-bankrupt, depression-teetering, de-regulated melt-down shape this Thanksgiving than it was one year ago today!

....But hey, a healthy, happy Holiday to all!!
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-- More Ramblin' Thoughts --

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If Ivory-billed Woodpeckers were simply hanging out in remote and very restricted territories they would've probably been found by now and fully documented. The alternative, that many have suggested, is that they are ranging over large swathes of territory, and not restricting themselves to a given area. But I've also argued that the farther afield they routinely fly, the MORE sightings we should have by now, given the wide casting of searchers over the last four years (i.e. the more ground the birds cover, the greater the chances of human encounters).
But why would the birds even move about so much? Some surmise the constant search for new food resources keep them nomadically moving around; that would make sense if their numbers were great enough that they truly cleared out food resources of any given area in short order, but I don't believe that to be the case. I suspect the numbers are so paltry low that they could sustain themselves in a given area for a significant length of time (the fewer the birds, the fewer the resources required). Perhaps frequent human disturbance causes them to keep moving on. Or maybe it is the search for mates that constantly drives them to new grounds (of course they must have had enough success finding mates over the last 60 years to still be with us at all, and when they do locate mates their movement would likely then be constrained at least through the breeding season).

If Ivory-bills are both looking for mates AND actively trying to avoid human encounters, that combination might account for their movements and elusiveness; this in turn largely assumes we are dealing primarily with juvenile and unmated birds at this point... and maybe we are. Given the paucity of sightings though, can there even be enough of them to find mates with regularity needed to sustain the species going forward? Finding an active nesthole is key to this whole story in so many ways, including getting the clear photos/film sought, and documenting that the birds are breeding, as well as studying the breeding process itself. Finding a nesthole... keeping its locale top secret, but broadcasting its activity via remote videocam over the internet with moving pictures reminiscent of Singer Tract film a la 70 years ago... ahhh, a jaw-dropping prospect to be devoutly wished!

I continue to believe that for the above scenario to play out the birds must travel along wooded river corridors (where there may be diminished chance of sightings), with the Mississippi River itself, and its tributaries, offering the most obvious possibilities as it stretches from western Tennessee/Illinois along Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. And Florida with its multiple interconnected swamps and waterways stretching from the central part of the state, northward and westward, likewise retains interest. Alabama, Georgia, South/North Carolina, Texas... don't seem (to me) as riveting, nor as readily able to account for 60+ years of evasiveness. But... in the Ivory-bill arena, little can be taken for granted.
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-- Video Analysis and Assumptions --

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Bill Pulliam has a new post (as he promised) wrapping up the analysis of the initially-interesting Collins Nov. 5 video from the Pearl; examining why folks were quickly, but falsely, enthused over the clip.
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