-- Of Bubbles (...some musings) --

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4 years ago I mentioned to someone associated with the official Ivory-bill search the need to better address criticism/skepticism that was emanating over the Web; I thought it was having a growing impact on the birding community (and others), and that various critiques/speculations ought be directly confronted.
I was told that my concern was overblown and the Web had little impact on what people thought about the IBWO claims... was told that when search principals traveled around the country giving talks they were never asked about the sorts of issues being raised on the internet; that such skepticism was barely on the public radar, and would quickly fade away.... so I was informed 4 years ago.

That was when I first realized that Cornell and others were living in their own bubble, so non-cognizant were they of the impact the internet could (and would) have. To this day, I'm not sure but that many of those principals don't still reside in a bubble of their own making, little realizing the degree of disappointment, cynicism, even indignation, that permeates much of the larger birding and science community, over the results and poor communication across 4+ years of study. That doesn't mean that there aren't many in the birding/science community who don't still believe the IBWO does or could persist; it just means a large segment of the audience, who expected better, were left frustrated by some of those in charge who's own competency through this venture might now be questioned (p.s: none of this is meant to be critical of the many volunteers and ground people/technicians who put in countless hours of monumental work to fulfill procedures/protocols as formulated).

For Cornell, USFW, the Nature Conservancy, I don't know if they understand yet the box they've put themselves in: if the Ivory-bill is never found and conclusively documented, doubts about the integrity/wisdom of this entire enterprise will linger (for some) years into the future; and if the species is found and documented (by an independent) that may speak even louder volumes about the (in)adequacy of those who headed up this particular effort (one would like to think they were the 'best and the brightest' with the most resources, but perhaps not). They have plowed a deep trench to now try to dig out from... even if in the end the answer is simply that the bird is so rare, and traversing through such vast tracts of fragmented wilderness, that documenting it conclusively requires even more time and resources than available.

I still believe the Ivory-bill may yet be documented, but if it is, one wonders if the officials who headed up the last 4 years are up to the task of its further study, management, and conservation --- should the Ivory-bill ever be found it's tempting to ponder whether it might not be time to let one of the major international bird/conservation groups, who routinely tackle such endeavors, take over the process (although there's too much money and publicity at stake for those invested to ever hand-off the project to others). Or... maybe the principals did as good a job as was humanly possible... and the bird just ain't there. But someone still has to convince me of that.
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-- More Tennessee/Pulliam --

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Bill Pulliam takes us into the weekend with his 3rd installment of a series --- this time recounting his "otherworldly, exhilarating, and disorienting" March '08 auditory encounter with repeated "BAMbam" sounds in western Tennessee:

http://bbill.blogspot.com/2009/08/down-rabbit-hole.html

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-- Auburn Update --

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Geoff Hill's latest update from the Auburn effort in the Choctawhatchee region of the Florida Panhandle is up now HERE.

Needless to say, no luck during the '08-'09 season efforts which were largely based on the placement of newly-designed automatic cameras, which unfortunately continued to have a high (50%) failure rate (they are working on some tweaks that will hopefully improve that situation).

Dr. Hill reports at one point:

"In short, our experience over the past year indicates that ivorybills have moved out of the areas where we encountered them from 2005 to 2008. That’s as much as I can say with any confidence. There is no way to know whether the birds are in different areas in the Choctawhatchee Basin, different forests in the region, or dead."

And then adds more optimistically:

"I’m not pessimistic about the situation yet. We know almost nothing about the remnant population of ivorybills on the Florida panhandle. The few birds that were in the vicinities of Bruce Creek and Old Creek from 2005 to 2008 may simply be up or down the river (where we never venture) or in some beetle-killed stand of timber in the region. I have to assume that one of these months we will again detect them in the area that we monitor."

Hill will continue occasional scouting trips to the area and monitoring of automatic cameras, though his chief technician, Brian Rolek, has graduated and will be moving on. Hill reports he won't be posting any more updates at that particular website, but obviously if THE photo should arrive the news will be released to all.

Meanwhile, Mike Collins has commenced reporting for a new search season at the Pearl (La.) HERE.
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-- Tennessee cont'd. --

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While the silence is deafening on most fronts, Bill Pulliam continues relating his account of IBWO searching in western Tenn. with another installment here:

http://bbill.blogspot.com/2009/08/down-to-delta.html
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-- Tennessee... 'Hot Zone' ? --

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Long-time interested party Bill Pulliam has begun posting some of his experiences searching for the Ivory-bill in Tennessee in recent times HERE.
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-- Pearl River Scenes --

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Mike Collins has posted some scenic (and other) photos from the Pearl River area he explores here:

http://www.fishcrow.com/gallery.html

(he expects to be back there in a couple weeks-or-so)
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-- Watching Grass Grow --

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This weekend marks the 4th anniversary of the start of this blog... Time flies when you're having fun! After averaging almost 5 posts/wk. over that entire time, things seem sure to slow down heading into blog year #5. Things are sluggish, as well, over at the "IBWO Researchers Forum" for the time being.

Sessions/papers for the national AOU Meeting next month in Philadelphia are now posted on the Web, and also as expected, I see nothing directly related to Ivory-bills (one presentation relates to Pileated Woodpecker ecology in what could be IBWO habitat).

Bill Pulliam has promised over at his "Notes From Soggy Bottom" blog to begin reporting next month on some of the findings/experiences of those who searched western Tennessee for certain big black-and-white woodpeckers over the last two years. It would be interesting of course to hear directly from specific team participants in other key states, as well.

Mike Collins reports he is headed back to the Pearl "soon."

And, in general, still a lot of loose ends to tidy up, hopefully before summer is over and the winter season is again upon us.
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-- The Road Ahead? --

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First, to those who have sent along emails of 'thanks' and well-wishes... hey, this ain't no funeral, nor even a farewell! I expect to be blogging about the Ivory-bill for some time yet, just with fewer-and-farther-between posts. There remain reasons for hope and belief that a few individuals still inhabit southeastern corners. No reason to kid ourselves though... 'proof' of IBWO persistence isn't likely coming forth soon.

I don't much envy the powers-that-be who will be summarizing 4+ years worth of data/evidence. Obviously, they won't look back in retrospect and conclude it was a futile effort, but to the degree that they express optimism or positivity over the results they will be ridiculed in some quarters for spinning or finessing the information gathered. Unfortunately, they're in a bit of a lose-lose situation no matter what they conclude (at least in some circles), but there will be positives in their report.
I am most disappointed (as blogged before) that after 3 years of scouting out areas, year 4 did not produce an increase in the number of credible, detailed sightings (photos I can live without, but there ought be more quality sightings by now, one would expect) --- will be interested to see how many of this season's sighting claims Cornell deems worthy of inclusion in their final report.

Also, I hope in that final report they don't simply offer up another loose laundry list (as we've seen year after year) of "potential," "possible," "interesting" sites deserving further attention. Instead, for the few independent searchers who might make use of such info, I hope they will pinpoint with some specificity the 2-3 places that they think MOST warrant additional concentrated efforts based on totality of evidence gathered, claims, sound recordings, etc. (However, not confident they will do that --- there may be too much disagreement among team members over just which geographic sites are most promising... I suspect there are a lot of disagreements amongst 'recovery team' members!).

Finally, as much as I believe it's just one itsy bit of evidence in this whole long debate, and as much as we're all exhausted of viewing it, maybe still appropriate at this time to post again the video that in many ways convened this whole controversy (...view it and wonder about all the "if-only's"):



Addendum: Above YouTube video seems to have been removed, but can still be found from this Cornell link.
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-- Article Update --

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Article from the "Cornell Chronicle" summarizing the Ornithology Lab's conclusions to date --- nothing new for those who've been following the search all along. Although no further plans for future searching appear in the works, Cornell says it will stay "connected" to the effort and "engaged" in the process. A scholarly book on the entire effort is also likely in the offing at some point. Otherwise, the summer summary report for this season (whenever it appears) will likely be the last account we hear for awhile from official sources that offers additional details and findings.
Don't know of any specific IBWO material being scheduled for next month's national AOU meeting in Philadelphia (other than possibly some related studies on Pileated Woodpecker ecology in the Southeast).

Critics will no doubt see all of this as Cornell trying to tiptoe gracefully away from the story. Time will tell...
Again, it's difficult to imagine how any future sightings, without a carcass or crystal clear photo accompanying, will be taken seriously.
Reminds one a bit of the old line from the classic Peggy Lee song: "Is That All There Is?". . . . .
(...I do expect to be around here for at least one more year reporting whatever there is to report.)
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-- Open Thread #5 --

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Indications are that "official" agencies will abandon most, if not all, searching for the Ivory-bill next season. One wonders how many independents will continue to have the motivation (not to mention time, energy, resources) to search if major entities throw in the towel. No doubt Bobby Harrison's IBWO Foundation will continue their efforts, as time permits, but will be interesting to see how many others do more than an occasional look-see effort. One can imagine that future sighting reports, unaccompanied by a photo, may receive almost no press or even birding attention.

No idea when I'll have something to post here again for the summer, so will just toss up another 'open thread' for now in the event that others have something they want to discuss....

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-- Memory Lane --

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Old 1936 "Natural History" magazine article reprinted online HERE covering the Arthur Allen Cornell expedition that recorded the pics/sounds of Singer Tract Ivory-billed Woodpeckers among other N. American targeted birds (IBWO material toward end of piece).
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-- "Dwindling" --

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Brief news article HERE on the dwindling IBWO interest in Arkansas, with Allan Mueller of the Arkansas Nature Conservancy confirming his organization currently has no plans for further searching next winter [Cornell Lab of Ornithology has likewise indicated the probability that they won't return to the Big Woods next season].
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-- IBWO Simulation/Jeff Wang's Master's Thesis --

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Jeff Wang's 180+ pg. Cornell Master's Thesis from 2007, "Animating the Ivory-billed Woodpecker," is available online as a pdf here:

http://www.graphics.cornell.edu/pubs/2007/Wan07.pdf

Unfortunately the work stops short of the ideal goal of animating both an Ivory-billed and a Pileated Woodpecker and then seeing which one in simulation matches the reality of the bird in the original Luneau video. How much additional work has been done since 2007, or whether Cornell will yet publish its own re-analysis of the Luneau video based on this simulation work, I don't know (they had at one time said a paper would be forthcoming).

The dissertation is HIGHLY technical, but even apart from its tie-in to the Ivory-billed Woodpecker, it may be worth reading for those interested in bird anatomy, evolution, feather structure, and/or flight dynamics.
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-- Lucky James Tanner --

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A reader sends in this link to a Univ. of Tennessee alumni article on the "lucky life" of James Tanner:

http://www.utk.edu/torchbearer/2009/01/a-lucky-life/
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-- Midweek Check-in --

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The bulk of the few rumors/whispers/glimmers filtering my way these days emanate from Arkansas and Louisiana (nothing at all solid), and I'm hearing less from Florida and South Carolina than in the past. Meanwhile, Texas, so far as I can tell, has dropped off the IBWO radar.
Speaking of Louisiana, Mike Collins has added a few overhead birds-eye views of the Pearl River area onto his website here:

http://www.fishcrow.com/airshots.html

Things seem quiet on most fronts; pretty usual for June... although if there are Ivory-bills out there, they are probably moving through the dense forest by now foraging and tooting away, with young in tow...

Meanwhile, some calming avian Web entertainment below :


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-- Science Communication and Twitter --

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A timely talk from a recent Twitter conference in NY city, discussing the ways in which 'Twitter' is altering the nature of current-day science reporting (for those not familiar with it, this is actually a hot topic right now for science journalists, editors, reporters, and scientists themselves). Will we ever have biologist field technicians 'twittering' the latest actions in recovery of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker? Doubtful... but not impossible.



[hat tip to "Coturnix" at 'Blog Around the Clock' for bringing video to my attention.]

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-- What Are the Chances... --

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Off-topic, but in case you've missed it, the story of one bizarrely-unlucky (or, extremely lucky, depending how you view it) Great-horned Owl:



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-- 2008 Synopsis --

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The USFW synopsis of he 2008 search season in pdf form is here:

http://www.fws.gov/ivorybill/IBWAccomplishments2008.pdf

In reference to ongoing studies of Pileated Woodpecker ecology in the Big Woods they note that,
"An important issue that the research will address is the potential limiting influence of predation on the productivity of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker population"... interesting, though I'm not sure that predation upon Ivory-bills is exactly the biggest concern for whatever few individuals may remain. Although, there may be one sort of predation to be concerned over... At another point the summary notes:
"Since the rediscovery of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker local interests in eastern Arkansas have been concerned that their traditional economic activities; such as farming, hunting, fishing, and forestry might be disrupted. The Big Woods of Arkansas Habitat Conservation Plan will allow the continuation of these activities and promote the recovery of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker and five other endangered species."
But they further acknowledge that a questionnaire given to the Big Woods populace indicated that, "About 50% of the landowners surveyed still have concerns about government intervention and control of their land if Ivory-billed Woodpeckers were located on their property." 50% is NOT an insignificant number. One suspects that no matter how much conservation "outreach" is done by academic and governmental authorities a worrisome portion of the resident population may NOT look kindly upon IBWOs being found on land they utilize. The potential reaction of private landowners to IBWO presence on their property (...or even on public property that they use) was a concern 60 years ago, and it's at least as big a concern today.
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