— No Resolutions, Just Idle Predictions —

--------------------------------------------------------------

Even though I still believe (for old, simple reasons I won’t even elaborate on) small pockets of Ivory-bills yet exist (in multiple locales, no less) I'm discouraged at the current state-of-affairs, and will make a few dismal, purely speculative, predictions for the year ahead (based solely on the experiences/patterns of the last 15 years, which have a way of repeating themselves)… would be nice though if every one of them proves WRONG:

1)  The USFWS will proceed to declare the Ivory-bill extinct, and by mid-year the current blip up in IBWO interest will once again die down... With that said, I will mention that I think Chris Haney's recent volume, "Woody's Last Laugh" is the strongest argument for delaying any such declaration and perhaps putting off any USFWS decision for at least 6 months (will say more about this surprising volume in a few days).

2)  My guess though is that no truly significant, persuasive evidence (meaning authenticated photo or video) will emerge in those 6 months… :(

3)  Within the next year there will be at least one major hoax attempted. I mean, hey, we're overdue for one! (...and not the crappy-level ones I get sent to me in email!)

(I think there’s still at least a $10,000 reward outstanding, maybe even the old $50,000 reward, for anyone successfully leading authorities to living Ivory-bills -- the key word being "living," ohh, and "ivory-bills" ;)).

As I've previously said, with so much recent/renewed IBWO publicity, bogus 'sightings' from novices may also once again flourish over next 6 months.

4)  David Sibley won't report any Ivory-bill encounters in 2022. 😏

Hope I don’t have to come back next December with even worse predictions! Oy. (...and with all that said, I do have slightly, ever-so slightly, more hope for the second half of the year than the first half).

British sorts have a word for those of us who keep the IBWO story going... and... going. They call us "stringers" for stringing people along indefinitely... because, well, it's easy enough to do... hope in the next year to focus primarily only on any actual significant new visual evidence (sightings/photo/video) of the species' persistence, and ignore most of the other chatter that will continue on (though might get dragged into some other matters, or if something truly fresh and interesting comes along). There are, and may continue to be, some very nice overview articles coming forth (helpful for newbies on the subject), but feels like walking forever in circles or treading water to report on them, so won't be citing. 

In any event, do have a productive, and hopefully healthy, year ahead everyone.... (but maybe hold expectations in check; we've been down the road of promising claims and over-anticipation enough times already).

——————-------------------------——————

— Verbal Reports... Just Sayin' —

 —————--———————————

Over the last few years some of the IBWO sightings sent to me have come from correspondents explaining they sent the same info to Cornell, but all they got back was a message essentially saying, ‘nice, write us back when you have a photo or video’… or, from their standpoint, simply saying ‘bugoff’. They think they’ll get a more positive response from me… but, usually don’t. I mention all this just to say I feel I’m in good company requesting that clear, indisputable photo/video be produced. 

Most verbal reports I get are disappointingly weak… and un-detailed. In 15 years I think I’ve only had 2 (or at most 3) reports I sent along to other authorities, thinking they might find them interesting. Sometimes claimants (who I find unconvincing) are adamant though about seeing IBWOs, so I direct them to an Audubon member or even ornithologist in their nearby area to tell their story to… I never hear from them again. Or if their report is just too un-detailed to give a yay or nay to, I’ll send back a list of questions… and usually never hear from them again either, or the answers sent back make it clear they did NOT see an IBWO. And there are the folks who write to happily inform me they saw an Ivory-bill in or near their very backyard… in Vermont or Massachusetts or Oregon. And those who know they saw an Ivory-bill, but turns out even after all this time, they’ve never heard of a Pileated Woodpecker. Then there are the yearly postings on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, Reddit and wherever claiming to have spotted IBWOs. In short, the vast majority of IBWO reports are poor at best (some even clearcut hoaxes), and it is little wonder that skeptics have tired of the whole affair by now. I've already warned that the recent publicity for IBWO will almost surely generate yet a new rash of mistaken identities. 

BUT the thing is, it doesn’t matter if dozens or hundreds of IBWO claims are worthless; it only matters if 1 or 2 (or more) are correct. One simply cannot generalize from all the bad reports to ALL reports, no matter how logical or tempting that may seem. So onward we trudge. I’ll have a final post for the year (and some dismal predictions!) in a few days. 

(On a more positive note, in early January, I’ll say some things about Chris Haney’s wonderful recent volume, “Woody’s Last Laugh,” a book that I regard as a surprising breath of fresh air amidst all of this, and that Mark Michaels calls "the most important book on the ivorybill since Tanner.")

—————————--———————

— Seeing Is Not (necessarily) Believing —

 ————-----------------------------——————

One of the amazing things to witness when the Luneau video first came out was how quickly, equally experienced, skilled, reputable birders/ornithologists came to utterly divergent conclusions: i.e. the bird was clearly a normal Pileated Woodpecker in escape flight, or no, the bird was potentially/probably an IBWO, and certainly NOT a Pileated. Any cognitive scientist will tell you how weak human vision, and especially brief looks, is as a basis for firm conclusions… indeed, many a criminal trial has hinged on eyewitness testimony that later proved simply erroneous.

Anyway, there are thousands of great optical illusions, demonstrating the clear shortcomings of human vision. Here’s a big handful of some faves:

https://twitter.com/Woofkoof/status/1467904569279762440

https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1117597108259831808

https://twitter.com/TechAmazing/status/1335798167661662212

https://twitter.com/raastech/status/571203109919305728

https://twitter.com/sinix777/status/1384916614202679298

https://twitter.com/moreisdifferent/status/1445583175678238724

https://twitter.com/BrianRoemmele/status/1465919065998782469

https://twitter.com/rajdeep_baral/status/1308711678553415681

https://twitter.com/ThePoke/status/820926823479513088

https://twitter.com/RafaelCruzG11/status/372933866807230464

https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1470506334126628866

https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1467063629564448770

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWfFco7K9v8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNGg2arYDe0

With all that said, nevertheless I've consistently long-felt that short of clearcut photographic/video evidence, the only IBWO evidence that's very persuasive to me are sightings claims (preferably not brief or distant) from experienced, knowledgeable observers (which remain few-and-far-between). As weak or distrustful as such claims can be, the other evidence proposed for IBWO presence is yet far weaker, reminiscent of Loch-Ness-Monster evidence (...though DNA evidence, if ever found, could be interesting).

It is especially devastating that despite millions of frames shot by automatic remote cameras (which have issues, but not the flaws/constraints of human observers) focused on cavities, foraging sites, and flyways not one single IBWO has been captured in years of effort. As others have suggested, perhaps Ivorybills actually reside in points A and C but we are only repeatedly looking in point B where they briefly traverse/disperse through on occasion… or, of course, perhaps they simply exist no more. The beat goes on….

(I have 4 or 5 more postings I'm considering between now and end of January, but after that it could be a slow year here at the blog.)

————————————————————

-- Monday Night Discussion --

 ————————————————————

Slightly short notice, but for his upcoming Monday Zoom broadcast (this Monday night, 8pm EST) Matt Courtman is planning to return with Mike Collins and inviting any skeptics/critics of Mike’s work to come on board with their questions/concerns, especially in regards to Mike’s o-o-old “fly under” video which was extensively discussed in last week’s Monday Zoom.

There are several reasons (I believe) why that video, and other of Mike’s work, has never gained much traction, but this is a chance for skeptics to weigh in — I would encourage them to do so, despite their likely fear of how quickly any discussion will deteriorate, but I think Matt is trying to be an honest broker in opening the platform to competing views (while granted he has definite positive view). The invitation comes at the end of this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1rnK24F7RY

I’d especially encourage those who have followed Mike’s claims for years (actually, well over a decade) and are already very familiar with his arguments and videos to engage… but certainly those who only more recently learned of his work can join in as well.

You can check Matt’s FB site here:

https://www.facebook.com/MissionIvorybill  

OR, this FB page will have a Zoom link on Monday:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368

————————————————————

-- Holiday Shopping --

 ———————————————————————

Given the delays in mail and shipping this year, it’s almost getting too late for Xmas shopping (or Festivus, as the case may be), but if you are still looking for something for that beloved Ivory-bill addict (including yourself) here’s a couple of nice T-shirts (I have no connection to either product):

https://www.redbubble.com/i/t-shirt/Audubon-s-Ivory-Billed-Woodpeckers-by-nefaeryous/18126986.1YYVU

https://www.amazon.com/Ivory-Billed-Woodpecker-America-T-Shirt/dp/B07N7Z9H5M?customId=B07537TZ66&th=1

There are plenty of other choices at places like Cafepress and Zazzle, as well as at Amazon. And of course Ivory-bill books, mugs, prints, artwork, trinkets etc.etc. can be found as well.

Merry shopping….

———————————————————————

— Intermission —

 ———————————————————

Not for everybody, but while biding time, just a 6-year-old essay on mathematics here:

https://jornbettin.com/2015/04/01/the-antidote-to-misuse-of-mathematics-and-junk-data/

…and then utterly changing the subject and mood, here’s Terry Gross interviewing Mel Brooks this week on "Fresh Air":

https://www.npr.org/2021/12/07/1061836388/mel-brooks-all-about-me

...finally, so as not to drop a post entirely devoid of IBWO references, here's Connecticut woodcarver Keith Mueller on Facebook showing off some of his recent gorgeous work:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/4857237337630991/

———————————-————————

-- Streamlining --

—————————————————————————

For the last 2 years I’ve wanted to update/streamline the cluttered left-hand column of the blog, but with interest lagging in this whole topic lacked the energy to do so. Interest has perked up slightly since the USFWS announcement so finally found the time this weekend to eliminate a lot of links (especially dead ones). If any of the ones I’ve scratched prove particularly useful in months to come I’ll reinstate. Especially sorry to remove the IBWO Researchers Forum which seems to now be defunct (if someone knows otherwise let me know; they have suffered long downtimes previously, but this one seems permanent?).

I have added the British BirdForum.net site, since if there is any significant IBWO news to come it will likely be well-covered and debated at that forum, which probably had the most significant, wide-ranging (not always pleasant) debate of any site, early-on, over the evidence Cornell originally brought to light (indeed, if I remember correctly, it was some of the vitriol at that site that led to IBWO Researchers Forum being formed!).

I've also added one two of the Ivory-bill Facebook sites which tend to be somewhat active (though, like many, I despise Facebook!... but one can't avoid it these days, and it is effective at spreading ideas/news, even if much of it needs to be taken with a grain of salt).

—————————————————————————

-- Waiting Game --

 -----------------------------------------------------------

Am getting a small assortment of inquiries lately that I don’t have the time or energy to reply to in detail, so will simply respond to in a general way:

1)  No, I don't expect the USFWS to alter their recommendation to de-list the IBWO, though it is possible they'll postpone a decision long enough that perhaps fresh, persuasive evidence will come to light (though I’m not expecting anything significant soon). USFWS is likely very aware of most all the prevailing evidence from the last decade+ (not to mention the century prior), none of which will likely sway their opinion... but, hey, I've been surprised before, and always a slim chance that sheer public pressure, and not conservation issues, might cause them to alter their stance.

  

2)  People are sending me various articles, links, news stories, etc., because so much IBWO-related material has arisen lately (that I don’t report on). These are almost always things I’m aware of, but don’t post about because the content is either old, redundant, or simply weak.

Folks can continue sending things in (I’d still rather have 10 people send me something I already know about, than miss out on something that might be new to me); just know that if I don’t use something you send in, it doesn’t mean I didn’t receive or appreciate the email, but it simply didn’t pass a certain threshold of significance. But yeah, lots of nice retrospective articles out there.

-----------------------------------------------------------

-- Of Anecdotes and Places --

 -----------------------------------------------------

Am always a bit hesitant to pass along anecdotes these days (just because  anecdotes from non-birders are so many and so rarely credible), but with little else to report will cite this recent Georgia one from Rob Tymstra over at the main Facebook Ivory-bill forum, in part because it reminds me of an old story I posted here almost 10 years ago:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/4827523787269013/

…and my post, regarding Georgia, from 2012:

https://ivorybills.blogspot.com/2012/02/and-back-to-georgia.html

At the time I was wondering (as I still do) if parts of Georgia deserved more search attention than they were getting when compared to states like Florida and Louisiana, or even South Carolina and Texas. An even far odder locale I’ve pondered about, principally because of some of Bill Pulliam’s old postings, is western Tennessee.

An old bromide essentially says it’s silly to keep doing the same thing over and over again and expect a different result… yet we keep concentrating IBWO searches in the same areas repeatedly over decades without definitive documentation (though based upon some evidence, and the sheer size of such locales)… but if the birds, which are powerful flyers, have moved on, it’s difficult to say just which lesser-explored areas deserve more attention than they’ve ever received… another reason the USFWS wish to declare ‘extinction’ seems premature.

-------------------------------------------

ADDENDUM 11/30/21:

The deadline for comments to the USFWS on its recommendation to de-list the Ivory-billed Woodpecker has now passed, with ~200 ~100 comments sent in (I assume these are mostly opposed to de-listing, but did not read all of them, so don’t know if any were actually posted in support of the ‘extinction’ designation). I doubt the Agency will be swayed, though I suspect there is dissension in USFWS over what action to take, so just perhaps minds will be changed or an extension will be given before a final decision is made.

Bobby Harrison was among the last to comment, and claims a 10-second video almost 14 months old showing an Ivory-bill in flight at an undisclosed location — seems likely if it was of any quality it would’ve (and should’ve) come to light long before now!…. indeed, I worry a bit that it will simply further exasperate officials as more of the same ol' same ol' brief, grainy, unconvincing frames; i.e. THIS is the best believers can ever come up with (yaaaawn). Harrison’s full comment to the Agency (where he hopes to present the video) can be downloaded from here:

https://www.regulations.gov/comment/FWS-R4-ES-2020-0109-0061

(...the film clip may be made public after being viewed by USFWS)

No idea how soon USFWS expects to make their final decision (I assume months away), but again probably not worth getting hopes up unless some truly better evidence arises this winter season. Luckily, searches will continue no matter what decision is made.

 -----------------------------------------------------

-- Collins Is Courtman's Next Guest --

 --------------------------------------------------------

Mike Collins is set to be Matt Courtman's next guest on his Ivorybill podcast series, this coming Monday evening at 8pm EST via Zoom:

https://www.facebook.com/events/421008052855134

Monday also marks the end of the USFWS comment period for their recommendation to delist the Ivorybill, so just perhaps some FWS representatives will be on-hand to give a listen.

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-- Winter Approaches --

 ----------------------------------------------------

Approaching winter when the leaves will be gone from the trees making for better IBWO searching, with a new breeding season beginning early next year …but then, hahh, I’ve probably been saying all that for the last 15 years :((

Again, plenty of review and historical/speculative banter continuing around the IBWO for now (and could easily continue for another 10-15 years), but little really new claims so I suspect USFWS will go ahead with its “extinction” recommendation by year's end (despite internal debates, and hey, maybe they’ll surprise me). All the arguments are pretty well-known by now, and pretty well-worn... one suspects that some in key positions at USFWS just aren’t buying it. Whatever credibility the agency loses by NOT declaring the IBWO extinct will be far surpassed by the egg-on-their-face, if they declare extinction, only to have the iconic species then re-appear; a bit of a roll of the dice for them. Que sera sera.

Louisiana’s Matt Courtman continues to do Monday night (8pm EST) Zoom meetings on IBWO topics. The last one I see uploaded to YouTube is here (a more recent one isn’t up yet, but probably soon):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ly6chrq0B_Y

Update: the more recent one is now up here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvfeJ6gQ6-M

(…or follow his “Louisiana Wilds” Facebook page for updates from him, if you're not already:

https://www.facebook.com/TheLouisianaWilds

Again, remember the comment period to USFWS is open 'til Nov. 29, here:

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/09/30/2021-21219/endangered-and-threatened-wildlife-and-plants-removal-of-23-extinct-species-from-the-lists-of#open-comment

...AND, the actual USFWS "5-year review" of the IBWO case upon which the decision to 'declare extinct' is based, is here, if you wish to read it (H/T to Matt Courtman):

https://ecos.fws.gov/docs/tess/species_nonpublish/2710.pdf?fbclid=IwAR379d-fazxjEmUSbh8usFqPJeZS6dX80VoVuFlHhqY9eCQLqAY1GyyXIS8

...and in case I don't have occasion to post again before Thanksgiving, a Happy Holiday to all.

----------------------------------------------------

-- A Stellar Find --

 ----------------------------------------------------

“Unfortunately, nature is very much a now-you-see-it, now-you-don't affair. A fish flashes, then dissolves in the water before my eyes like so much salt. Deer apparently ascend bodily into heaven; the brightest oriole fades into leaves.”  — Annie Dillard

I usually try to keep away from these stories of rare or unusual bird sightings (there are many each year) as having any great relevance to the Ivory-bill saga, but this one involving a large, stunning bird showing up out-of-the-blue and out-of-place is just too remarkable to pass up, reverberating again with how little we know about individual bird behavior.

For those who haven’t heard, a magnificent, vagrant Steller’s Eagle (larger, and just as striking as our American Bald Eagle) has shown up in Canada  thousands of miles from its Asian home territory. It’s been moving around quite a bit; perhaps it will show up on our eastern seaboard! As Nate Swick of ABA simply says, “It’s nuts. It really is. It’s one of those head-scratching things” to find this bird here in N. America at all. Others call it “mind-boggling” and “a one in a million shot.” 

Once, when a very unusual hummingbird showed up in my state, completely out-of-place, I surmised it accidentally hitched a ride in the back of a transport vehicle perhaps hauling tropical plants from a source 1000+ miles away, as I refused to believe it flew here under its own power... but that sort of 'accidental' ride scenario (or any other) is far less conceivable for the appearance of this waaay-lost raptor.

Anyway, read all about it (because, yes, mind-boggling things do happen on occasion, and nature is full of surprises):

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/science/stellers-sea-eagle.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimesscience

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/steller-s-sea-eagle-nova-scotia-rare-bird-sighting-1.6237014

ADDENDUM 11/16:

Hahh! not IBWO-related, but kinda funny after me mentioning the possibility of stowaway birds, today this story appears of a Roadrunner from Las Vegas hitching a ride to Maine (strange things happen in the world of birds):

https://www.npr.org/2021/11/16/1056191659/roadrunner-stowaway-moving-van-las-vegas-maine

 ----------------------------------------------------

-- In Time For Halloween: The Haunting ;) --

 -------------------------------------------------------

People talk a lot about how politically polarized the country is these days… though perhaps it’s actually always been polarized and modern-day digital media have simply exacerbated and shone a bright light on the divisions.  Anyway, the polarization is interestingly reflected in the Ivory-bill debate as well, as over time, both sides have dug in their heels perhaps even more so. In lieu of the recent USFWS pronouncement, long-time IBWO proponents, especially those who have some vested interest (because of their prior efforts, vocal arguments, reputation, etc.) in the debate, have possibly hardened their stands and are campaigning for a reversal of the USFWS recommendation, while scoffers may be losing all patience. With that said, there are some skeptics who admit they would love to be proved wrong, love to see the IBWO documented, but just find scant little solid evidence for any optimism. And vice-versa there are a few former believers, who by now have surrendered most hope, and must wonder if the species even actually ever made it through the 1940s bottleneck. There are also many, who like myself, still think a few remnants do exist, but wholly doubt the species can be saved even if found and protected. Maybe we’d have them around another 10 - 25 years, but short of some sort of massive and uncertain cloning project, then what?

Anyway, despite my gut instinct that a few stragglers still fly, there is one element that has always haunted me a bit in this saga. For those who have followed the story since the official Big Woods search went public, you may well recall the leucistic (largely white) Pileated that was spotted, and photographed, early on (you can google “Pileated Woodpecker +leucistic” if you need to see examples). The ghostly, heavily-white bird caught on film could hardly be mistaken for an IBWO, but it always made me nervous to wonder what the offspring and siblings of that bird might’ve looked like (and for that matter the offspring of its offspring, etc…) — leucism comes in a variety of degrees and forms; might not a more partially-leucistic Pileated (or even a crow), in a brief look (and almost all IBWO sightings are brief), lend the appearance of an Ivory-bill? (indeed, ornithologist Noel Snyder once reported just such a specimen in Florida). Several other varyingly leucistic PIWOs popped up on the Web, BTW, in the months after the Arkansas Big Woods encounter.  Of course leucistic birds are relatively rare… but, of course IBWO sighting-claims are themselves very rare. What percentage of the best sightings are just leucistic birds of other species?

Again, what we need are prolonged, clear-cut sightings/video from credible, knowledgeable observers.

p.s.... Matt Courtman spoke with believer Geoff Hill for well over an hour on his IBWO podcast last Mon. night and will probably have a link to it at some point (...I'll post link here when I see it). And he'll likely have another guest next Monday.

(Hill) link here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KR4AiUij6g

-------------------------------------------------------

-- More Stuff... --

 ——————------—————————

When it rains it pours… after some years of bloggish dormancy, news keeps coming for the moment… though I expect after the USFWS final decision at end of November things will slow down once again (no matter which direction the decision takes, and I don't believe there is anything forthcoming, short-term, that will move the needle on their decision).

Anyway, a few links or mentions for now:

1)  Mark Michaels implies in a note that he and/or the National Aviary that employs him will have something further to say publicly about their research (in La.) and the USFWS proclamation before end of Nov.

2)  In a prior post I mentioned J. Christopher Haney’s forthcoming book on the IBWO and cognitive aspects of the search. His recent appearance with Matt Courtman for IBWO discussion is available here (~90 mins., but you can speed through some parts):

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1k4wqNwMdMv8QnNOWqJIwtcm6gTkWLu5B/view

...and on this coming Monday (10/18) Courtman will have another Zoom discussion, this time with ornithologist (and Choctawhatchee searcher) Geoff Hill:

https://www.facebook.com/events/930432581204311?ref=newsfeed

3)  And can’t neglect to mention that Mike Collins, who once spoke of throwing in the towel on the IBWO debate, is back with another new paper here, in an open-access journal:

https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/epdf/10.1142/S2591728521500201

…it’s mostly a rehash of his rehashes of his rehashes (and I don’t mean that as a putdown, but just as a warning to folks well-familiar with his work and arguments, that most of this 34-page paper you will have read before, though this gives a nice re-overview), but it does contain one new idea… and Mike is nothing if not an idea-generator.

His new notion is to focus on acoustics and employ “A horizontal array of microphones” that  “would make it possible to detect weaker sounds and determine the directions of sources. This approach has the potential to lead to the discovery of a nest, and it might be more effective if the array is placed above the treetops, where sounds might propagate to longer ranges.”

Anyway, read it all for yourself; makes for a nice review of both some IBWO history as well as more recent events/arguments... as for finding a nest hole, well, don't hold your breath.

...and one last note: with all the publicity the Ivory-bill has once again received in the last month, its picture plastered all over the press once more, you can pretty much count on yet a new flurry of (mistaken) "sightings" coming from the public-at-large. So beware.

 ——————------—————————

-- Onward --

 -----------------------------------------------------------

Tim Gallagher, who has a bit of interest in the decision ;) has written a piece for Audubon regarding the USFWS recommendation to declare the IBWO extinct:

https://www.audubon.org/news/is-it-really-time-write-ivory-billed-woodpeckers-epitaph-0?fbclid=IwAR2dAiSANIcCa52hnFzXi5-OSmcoBzHn9yejdLyeB2i1Ufse1Qzdf8yvAfo

It largely rehashes the arguments that have been made all along and Tim’s own personal experience, and Tim is a good writer so it is an enjoyable read. But with that said, I was disappointed that toward the end, and you could hear the frustration/aggravation in his words while writing about the difficulty of attaining evidence strong enough to sway skeptics, he ventured over-the-top with this bit:

“So, unless someone manages to take the most stunning, crisp, unbelievably vivid photograph or video imaginable—or better yet, find an active nest that other researchers can view—it may not be universally believed.”

No, it does not require “the most stunning, crisp” or “unbelievably vivid” photographic evidence to demonstrate this species’ existence. Crappy, blurry, but closeup photos that simply show a few key features will do, or fuzzy, prolonged video of very mediocre quality will suffice… and that is what we haven’t had for an amazing and disappointing 75+ years. One doesn’t require a Leica camera with a 600 mm. lens… an iPhone may do the trick (…or, if you were to believe Fielding Lewis, a Brownie camera suffices nicely). So folks please don't hold back your photos of Ivory-bills because they're not of stellar, award-winning quality ;)

There are plenty of reasons to explain why getting such a photo or video may be difficult… but, given what has been accomplished with other rare species, it is also difficult to explain the lack of even one given the effort put in over this long a time. "I couldn't get my camera out fast enough," "I couldn't get the camera to focus in time," "I was so stunned, I didn't even think to reach for my camera"... gets a li'l old after awhile... coulda, woulda, shoulda.

And photographic evidence is not the only possibility. A clear, prolonged sighting by a truly universally-respected, and skeptical, ornithologist or birder would definitely rev up  belief in this species, or even such a sighting by a large group (say 8 or more) of less well-known, but very experienced, birders, could do it. ...David Sibley saying "I think I may have seen an Ivory-billed Woodpecker" wouldn't do it, but David Sibley saying "I saw an Ivory-billed Woodpecker" would! A slimmer possibility might be finding Ivory-bill DNA at a nest hole or foraging site… let alone a dead carcass.

These are not near-impossible levels of evidence to achieve; in fact they are possibly inevitable, given enough time (whatever that be), IF the species is indeed extant. And IF the bird is finally documented to everyone’s satisfaction, stunned ornithologists and naturalists worldwide will likely regard it as one of the greatest, most incredible sagas in all of zoological science and history. Meanwhile, we believers, will quietly (or, perhaps not-so-quietly) shake our heads, knowing it could hardly have turned out otherwise.

p.s…. Tim encourages everyone with thoughts on the matter to comment to the USFWS before they make their final decision at end of November:

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/09/30/2021-21219/endangered-and-threatened-wildlife-and-plants-removal-of-23-extinct-species-from-the-lists-of#open-comment

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-- Another Book On the Way --

 ----------------------------------------------------

Kind of funny that just as the Gov’t. is wishing to proclaim the IBWO extinct, yet another book is coming out about this not-so-dead topic — I already mentioned Guy Luneau’s new volume just a few posts ago (and I suspect at least one or two more volumes are currently in the works). And now “Woody’s Last Laugh: How the Extinct Ivory-billed Woodpecker Fools Us into Making 53 Thinking Errors” by J. Christopher Haney is due out in less than 2 months (in time for Christmas), taking a slightly different (cognitive psychology) slant on the long-time debate over this species:

https://tinyurl.com/5h9y5v6u

The resilience of this bird in human cognition, if not in physical presence, is phenomenal ;)

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ADDENDUM:

Turns out that Matt Courtman is doing a Zoom discussion with Dr. Haney this Monday night (Oct. 11) at 8pm. for anyone interested; details here:

https://www.facebook.com/events/285309080104593/?ref=newsfeed

-- Debate Continues, Comment Period Ends Nov. 29 --

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New "Birdwatching" article offers nice space/time to the opposing viewpoint of IBWO delisting (skeptics of the skeptics, including Fitzpatrick, Hill, Gallagher, Collins, Michaels, Luneau, Courtman...):

https://www.birdwatchingdaily.com/news/species-profiles/longtime-ivory-bill-searchers-call-delisting-absurd-really-premature/

The public comment period on the USFWS recommendation ends Nov. 29, and the link for registering a comment is here:

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/09/30/2021-21219/endangered-and-threatened-wildlife-and-plants-removal-of-23-extinct-species-from-the-lists-of#open-comment

(...of course, well-reasoned comments against delisting are encouraged)

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-- And the Beat Goes On --

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Another story on the USFWS's decision... the first one I've seen including Geoff Hill's view on the topic (but I've only read a fraction of the plethora of press reports so I may have missed some others):

https://www.tampabay.com/news/environment/2021/10/05/floridas-ivory-billed-woodpecker-is-officially-extinct-but-a-few-still-hope/

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ADDENDUM:

...and now more positive commentary from believer Geoff Hill here:

https://www.wsfa.com/2021/10/06/auburn-researcher-curator-birds-refutes-claim-that-ivory-billed-woodpeckers-are-now-extinct/

-- The Operative Phrase Is 'Might Be' --

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Well, finally a little better news coverage... Many of us were caught off-guard by the timing of the USFWS’s recent announcement (prior post), and as I already mentioned to various inquirers it was almost as if they tossed the IBWO onto their list knowing it would get them much wider news coverage than the same list without the Ivory-bill included… or perhaps there are current USFWS officials who fear the agency was losing credibility over its IBWO stance. At any rate, Cornell’s John W. Fitzpatrick is speaking out (during the comment period) to say that, 

"I'm expressing my considered opinion that this announcement is absolutely premature… Yes, the bird MIGHT be extinct, but there is plenty of reason to acknowledge that it MIGHT NOT be extinct. In such a case, we lose a lot more than we gain by declaring it officially gone. Instead, we should continue to acknowledge that as an iconic representative of southeastern forests and their recovery, this bird should remain on our list of critically endangered species while we continue to seek evidence of its existence, and continue to recover the old growth forests of the southeast."

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2021/sep/30/ivory-billed-woodpecker-extinct-federal-agency/?news-arkansas

...Let's hope, in the immortal words of Mark Twain, that "Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated." ;)

ADDENDUM:

Oh my, even The Onion can't resist getting in on the story:

https://www.theonion.com/u-s-declares-23-species-extinct-including-ivory-bille-1847777873

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-- A Day That Will Live In Infamy??? --

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According to news reports, today is the day the USFWS will officially pronounce the Ivory-billed Woodpecker to be extinct:

https://www.ualrpublicradio.org/post/us-says-ivory-billed-woodpecker-and-more-20-other-species-have-gone-extinct

The official USFWS press release is here:

https://www.fws.gov/news/ShowNews.cfm?_ID=37017

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-- Another Lord God Bird Book --

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"The Ivory-billed Woodpecker: Taunting Extinction"...

Can't give it a full-fledged endorsement since I haven't read it, but just from the sample offered through Amazon's "Look Inside" feature, this new volume from Guy Luneau looks worth a read... even though Guy calls it a "theory-filled" book and "a feel-good book, not so much a form of science paper." No doubt, speculative and provocative, but then that is almost unavoidable at this point in the Ivory-bill saga! (The Foreward, by the way, is by Matt Courtman):

https://www.zombiemediapublishing.com/2021/08/book-release-ivory-billed.html

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