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Even though I still believe (for old, simple reasons I won’t even elaborate on) small pockets of Ivory-bills yet exist (in multiple locales, no less) I'm discouraged at the current state-of-affairs, and will make a few dismal, purely speculative, predictions for the year ahead (based solely on the experiences/patterns of the last 15 years, which have a way of repeating themselves)… would be nice though if every one of them proves WRONG:
1) The USFWS will proceed to declare the Ivory-bill extinct, and by mid-year the current blip up in IBWO interest will once again die down... With that said, I will mention that I think Chris Haney's recent volume, "Woody's Last Laugh" is the strongest argument for delaying any such declaration and perhaps putting off any USFWS decision for at least 6 months (will say more about this surprising volume in a few days).
2) My guess though is that no truly significant, persuasive evidence (meaning authenticated photo or video) will emerge in those 6 months… :(
3) Within the next year there will be at least one major hoax attempted. I mean, hey, we're overdue for one! (...and not the crappy-level ones I get sent to me in email!)
(I think there’s still at least a $10,000 reward outstanding, maybe even the old $50,000 reward, for anyone successfully leading authorities to living Ivory-bills -- the key word being "living," ohh, and "ivory-bills" ;)).
As I've previously said, with so much recent/renewed IBWO publicity, bogus 'sightings' from novices may also once again flourish over next 6 months.
4) David Sibley won't report any Ivory-bill encounters in 2022. 😏
Hope I don’t have to come back next December with even worse predictions! Oy. (...and with all that said, I do have slightly, ever-so slightly, more hope for the second half of the year than the first half).
British sorts have a word for those of us who keep the IBWO story going... and... going. They call us "stringers" for stringing people along indefinitely... because, well, it's easy enough to do... hope in the next year to focus primarily only on any actual significant new visual evidence (sightings/photo/video) of the species' persistence, and ignore most of the other chatter that will continue on (though might get dragged into some other matters, or if something truly fresh and interesting comes along). There are, and may continue to be, some very nice overview articles coming forth (helpful for newbies on the subject), but feels like walking forever in circles or treading water to report on them, so won't be citing.
In any event, do have a productive, and hopefully healthy, year ahead everyone.... (but maybe hold expectations in check; we've been down the road of promising claims and over-anticipation enough times already).
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3 comments:
Please attend my Mission Ivorybill Zoom Meet on January 3 at 8PM ET. The link is on Facebook, the Mission Ivorybill page. My topic is increasing the odds of getting a good image. It will be a personal story, synthesis of material
, and summary of what to do.
Hi John, my evenings tend to get busy with various things, so rarely have time for Zoom meetings, though I try to catch a snippet of Matt’s talks and then watch later if/when he puts them on YouTube. I assume you’ll be talking about the methodology you previously wrote of on the former IBWO Searchers Forum and perhaps elsewhere.
Not just that, some more things, perhaps new suggestions. If you send an email, I can show you the slide presentation, might be of help.
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