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As reported in the current "North American Birds" (Winter season, west of Mississippi), Tim Spahr, a Harvard astrophysicist and IBWO searcher, who specializes in "the calculation of rare events," has developed an algorithm based largely on Tanner's old Singer Tract data, which concludes that a single Ivory-bill occupying the Cache River bayou area could avoid detection by 20 observers indefinitely!! -- Luckily, for us, I have no doubt there is far more than one bird in the area...
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