-- BP Weighing In... Again --

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Regular readers know that I'm just ever-so-slightly itsy-bitsy weary of commentary/analysis of the Luneau video, which thus far has proven nothing, except to demonstrate the ambiguity and subjective nature of 4 fuzzy video seconds (much like the ambiguity and subjective nature of so many "facts" in this debate). While we await whatever Cornell may have to say about Bevier's and Collinson's efforts to make the filmed bird into a Pileated, Bill Pulliam has yet-again posted more counter-thoughts on the subject at his blog:

http://bbill.blogspot.com/2007/07/once-again.html

....and 'round-and-'round it goes.

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-- 3-year Anniversary --

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This blog enters its third year of posting believing in the Ivory-bill's survival, despite declining confidence that it may be documented to everyone's satisfaction; especially if the numbers remaining are truly small and thinly spread out --- on the positive side, Whooping Cranes were brought back from barely more than a dozen birds, though it's doubtful any similar recovery program for IBWOs could ultimately succeed. Still, the goal must be to prove the bird's current existence, not necessarily to save it as a species, but to prove it's existence through the 50's, 60's, and 70's, when appropriate actions might indeed have been fruitful. The Ivory-bill needs to be documented, not to show the success of science, but rather to demonstrate science's utter failure in this instance, in the hope that maybe such failures can be avoided in the future. If photo/video documentation finally now arrives, much hoopla will follow, given how matters have unfolded --- but that joy should be tempered with equally matching dismay and regret at the 60 years of delay and benign neglect, that any such documentation will represent.

By the way, three Ivory-billed related talks are listed for next month's AOU meeting in Wyoming, as follows:

1) "Further evidence suggesting that Ivory-billed Woodpeckers exist in Florida" GEOFFREY
E. HILL, Dept. Biol. Sci., Auburn Univ., Auburn, AL, DANIEL J. MENNILL, Dept. Biol.,
Univ. Windsor, Windsor, ON, BRIAN R. ROLEK, RUSTY LIGON, JAMES R. HILL, III,
Auburn Univ., KYLE A. SWISTON, KARAN ODOM, Univ. Windsor, and TYLER L.
HICKS, Western State Coll., Gunnison, CO.

2) "A comparison of large woodpecker cavity morphology in the Choctawhatchee River
bottomlands and other southern forests" BRIAN W ROLEK, RUSSELL LIGON,
GEOFFREY HILL, Dept. Biol., Auburn Univ., Auburn, AL, and DANIEL J. MENNILL,
Dept. Biol. Univ. Windsor, Windsor, ON.

3) "Design and implementation of a region-wide search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker with
the objective of estimating occupancy and related parameters" ROBERT J. COOPER,
RUA S. MORDECAI, Univ. Georgia, Athens, GA, MICHAEL J. CONROY, JAMES T.
PETERSON, USGS Georgia Coop. Fish & Wildl. Res. Unit and Univ. Georgia, CLINTON
T. MOORE, Patuxent Wildl. Res. Center, Univ. Georgia, and BRADY J. MATTSSON,
Univ. Georgia.

Meanwhile, Mike Collins has announced his return to Virginia after a long season in the Pearl (La.), with no IBWO photos to show for it, but testing out a new tree climbing/stationing technique for observing the forest from above; to be continued later in year.
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Elsewhere from the Web:

If you're not already familiar with it learn more about the "Swift Night Out" program for studying the migration of fascinating Chimney Swifts to and from the U.S. each year:

http://www.concentric.net/%7edwa/page56.html

Better yet, find a chimney in your area that is used by swifts and take part in the annual survey by monitoring it on one of the assigned evenings.
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-- Mobile Team Note --

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Another brief summary of efforts of Cornell's Mobile IBWO Search Team here:

http://audubonmagazine.org/fieldnotes/fieldnotes0707-webexclusives.html

Martjan Lammertink remains "cautiously optimistic" but won't be part of the field team next season, opting instead to spend his time re-assessing all the data collected so far. There will be a team however, and it will resume exploring in December; no hint here where, besides the Congaree, efforts will be concentrated (it likely hasn't even been determined yet). In spite of cynics' efforts to derail it, the scientific process marches forward.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Long Hot Summer --

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Nothing too newsy Ivorybill-wise, so to hold you over, this report on another secretive forest bird with an ivory beak :

http://www.birdlife.org/news/news/2007/07/malaysia_wreathed_hornbill.html


...and here's a dash of info on the Green Swamp area of North Carolina, where some independent searchers are looking for IBWOs (and near where Alexander Wilson had his famous Ivory-billed encounter 200 years ago).
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-- You Too Can Be a Skeptic! --

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After conducting a careful meta-linguistic, multi-syllabic, text-analysis of the extant skeptical literature available I've discovered that you too can be a purported skeptic IF you are able to employ the following 10 words in any particular order within a single paragraph:

1) artifactual, 2) putative, 3) secondaries, 4) Tanner, 5) deinterlaced, 6) groupthink, 7) dorsal, 8) Gadwall, 9) pixels, 10) faith-based

(ohhh, and fer shur don't fergit to mention that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence --- a dag-gone clincher)

Go for it, and Good Luck (...you too jes' might get published!!)
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-- Sustainability --

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When a species is in steep decline its numbers can fall from say 2000 to 1000 or 1000 to 500, much faster than from 40 to 20; the reason being 'sustainability' --- the fewer the number of individuals, the more likely the remaining habitat will be adequate for maintaining them; indeed a species may sustain or stabilize themselves at a low number for a significant amount of time, if hunting, predation, and other factors are held at bay --- the number of remaining individuals being lost each year, offset by the number being born/raised in what now becomes sufficient habitat for such low numbers.

Some skeptics would have it that ALL Ivory-bill habitat was at one point destroyed; of course if this had ever happened we would be facing many more extinct and endangered critters today from the 100's of species that shared that habitat. Critics contend that the Ivory-bill was a uniquely "specialized" creature, but all creatures are specialized, IBWOs, Pileateds, Northern Cardinals, Starlings, and cockroaches for that matter, only differing in degrees and forms. The specialist/generalist division is just another false and typically over-simplified black-and-white dichotomy set up after-the-fact to explain the IBWO's demise (no one called the IBWO a specialist prior to its decline). Except for Ivory-bills that were hunted, there's no indication that individual IBWOs died prematurely; rather they simply failed to reproduce adequately, and the factors impinging on that may or may not have related to specialization.

Tanner believed that less than 30 Ivory-bills remained at the time of his study, likely spread out across at least 3 locales. Many doubt his estimate, but even at that low-ball figure, 20 birds, if left undisturbed, could have maintained themselves at low numbers for many years until habitat began improving --- even in-breeding is often not as harmful to bird species as it is to mammals, and may not have been a hugely limiting factor; such low numbers could've been sustained with no necessary "bottleneck" at work. Again, despite what skeptics narrowly think, 60 years is not, not, NOT a long time for a couple dozen birds to hang on to existence in relatively remote areas, nor is it a long time for 100+ birds (if Tanner's estimate was waaaay off) to go unphotographed. What we have over those 60 years are possible IBWO cavities, possible sounds/recordings, possible foraging signs, and many purported sightings, and all we lack is an agreed-upon photograph --- and THIS is the evidence skeptics regard as a slam-dunk for proclaiming extinction --- quite remarkable!! (and potentially, quite shortsighted).
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In other Web news... they're not just for hunters:

http://www.fws.gov/duckstamps/Info/Stamps/stampinfo.htm

Duck Stamps can be purchased by anyone, and the proceeds go toward conserving/maintaining wetlands habitat including areas well-suited to the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. The Stamps get you free admission to many Wildlife Refuges and represent a good cause even if you don't actively bird or hunt. If not already familiar with them check out the above site for more info.
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-- 3 Birds --

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I don't think I'll be stealing any thunder from Birding Magazine if I say that guesses are now appearing around the Internet (and my email) for their bird photo quiz of the month. Guesses cut across the full range one might expect: cormorants, loons, herons, egrets, other shorebirds, various ducks or seabirds. Haven't seen anyone thus far try to make a case for either IBWOs or Pileateds. To paraphrase an old saying of Louis Rukeyser, 'at least one thing is absolutely for certain: some of these guesses will be wrong.' Responders to Birding will build their cases more fully than responses posted on the Web, and I suspect it will eventually boil down to but a few key choices that cannot be further resolved (...is there a pattern here???).

Heyyy!! It's summertime, are we having fun yet...?

p.s. -- Just noticed that "Ivory-bill Septic" is apparently alive-and-well (even if his/her blog is not), and commenting over on Bill Pulliam's blog (...wherefore art thou Septic?):
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=21079040&postID=7153073070686592203

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