-- Twiddlin' Thumbs --

 --------------------------------------------------

Yeah, just twiddling thumbs here (while focused on other things), but probably ought to post something…. feel like, with the exception of some of the Latta Louisiana evidence, there’s been remarkably little substantive content ever since the Big Woods and Choctawhatchee searches shut down.... like pedaling a stationary bike, and going nowhere. :((  And without conducting large-scale transect-driven searches I'm not confident what will be discovered, though it's plausible that newer technology may yet get the job done.

Next July marks the crazy 20th anniversary of this blog (assuming it limps along to that point). If no better documentation by then, I s’pose I’ll try to wrap things up somehow (not concluding that the species is extinct, but simply that I have too many more important things to expend time/energy on)… even if the bird is definitively documented, I won’t be so interested in where the species is found (nor reporting much on that), but rather interested in:

1)  where ELSE it may persist (…and potential numbers)

2)  the nature of science and skepticism that led so many so astray

3)  how slim the chances are of saving it from extinction

Others will no doubt report extensively on any final success; I'll honestly be more interested in the reasons behind such prolonged and profound failure...

Anyway, for now, will just leave you with this viral video from the Web, perhaps a theme song for this blog ("Don't stop believin', hold onto that feelin'")  ;))

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lodFgsahdEs

ADDENDUM 9/25:

Lest you missed it, last night, Richard Goodall actually won the 2024 "America's Got Talent" Grand Finale prize ($1 million)! I actually, was rootin' for the dog act ;) but hey, CONGRATULATIONS Richard!!

His final performance of his signature song, with it's originators "Journey" is here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HP_RKV7f6o

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-- In Memory --

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Just wish to acknowledge that 7 years ago this week birder/farmer/scientist/iconoclast/independent-thinker Bill Pulliam passed away, too young at 56, leaving a certain gap in the IBWO debate that has never been filled. 

If you’ve never read it, still maybe worth perusing Bill’s old (almost 20 years ago) Terraserver analysis of potential southeast IBWO habitat that he patiently carried out, incredibly, with a dial-up connection, back in the day, from his home in rural Tennessee:

https://bbill.blogspot.com/2006/03/potential-ivory-billed-woodpecker.html

...and more long-ago stuff, but here were his various analyses of the forever-debated Luneau video:

http://bbill.blogspot.com/2009/02/summary-of-my-luneau-postings.html

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-- Oy Vey --

---------------------------------------------------- 

OMG, I no longer know whether to laugh or to cry, but here’s the photo heading up a recent article on social media entitled “10 Fun Facts About The Ivory-Billed Woodpecker” (it only gets slightly better after this): 

(....Not a propitious start to August)

---------------------------------------------------- 

— Pileated Fun —

———————————---————

While just biding time, will pass along this wonderful Facebook post showing 3 Pileateds ‘frozen’ in place for seconds "over five minutes" as explained therein:

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/u6TcPi44ZaeMwpfv/

…while at it, will also throw in this old clip of a partial leucistic PIWO parent feeding its offspring:

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/oCPMmKVwLnE7Y4Lf/

…and a few more leucistic examples here:

With all the distractions and important stuff going on in the country for next few months, am debating how much time to even spend posting here, since I’m not expecting much significant, new IBWO content to cover, so if the blog goes silent for awhile, well just busy with other things.

—————————————-----——

-- Not Too Encouraging --

——————————---————

An interesting (if somewhat pessimistic) post from Fred V. on IBWO success and detection from scaling form, beetle presence, and tree type in any given locale:

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/3oCr8smMiHC8BACY/

I’m not willing to vouch for every assertion Fred makes here (for example: “From ~ 1840 to 1907 measured inbreeding was already high range wide”; not sure we know that?), but the gist sounds right, even without knowing with certainty the full range of the IBWO diet or their reproductive success rates of late. I certainly hope he is wrong here (but acknowledge he could very well be right):

“The IBWO total population is now very low.  Over 20 years there has only been ~ 18 to 22 different birds likely seen, some of these now dead."

With that said, he does note that "genetic issues could be critical by 2025" which is, in a sense, almost an optimistic take, since most skeptics would likely argue that genetic issues already prevailed decades ago.

Perhaps David Martin or Chuck Hunter will respond in comments to the post if they take issue with anything in particular in Fred’s overview.

And Fred ends with a teaser line about a microevolution hypothesis that he doesn’t spell out, but I s’pose may be fleshed out in a separate posting?

—————————----—————

-- Head Cams --

 ————————————————

John W. presents an updated recommendation for a head-cam (Akaso Brave 4) for IBWO searchers here (mentioning several others as well):

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CYY13-5Hx10nIxZEJxlH3TnXA90SHHL9/edit?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR34tdPOoloFqfNvvdQt04VExuj24J5KB0R5qxGfX54RQoi5hCgoUbPEo-U_aem_BNXPXFNs0HQN6Rw9BJalwg

By now, I’m not very optimistic about the probability of ANY ground-based, (shaky) human-operated camera capturing an adequate photo of a flying IBWO… for trying to persuade skeptics or serious birders, the results of the last 20+ years have been mostly abysmal, and I suspect only a skillfully-operated drone or an automatic remote cam focused on a cavity or foraging site may ever likely suffice (also despite 20 years of failure)... though IF an active cavity or foraging site is ever identified, well, then a 1950’s Brownie camera will be quite sufficient ;)

If one does have the desire/dollars to invest in a headcam be sure to factor in all the pertinent variables, besides quality, that may affect your choice (price, weight, ease-of-use, battery-duration, sturdiness, waterproofness, warranty), and there are plenty of other reviews of headcams online (look for truly independent reviews, not just manufacturer-promoted sites), and John suggests several features or specifications to keep in mind.

Meanwhile, the sighting claims for Ivorybills keep popping up across the internet, over and over and over again, and even those from folks who claim adamantly that they KNOW the difference between IBWOs and PIWOs (because of course they’ve seen dozens of PIWOs before), invariably, if they provide a clear enough photo, turn out to be easily ID’d as Pileated. :(  Go figure… (on a sidenote, I keep seeing the speculation made, and believed, that perhaps some IBWOs and PIWOs have cross-bred... NOOOO, these two separate species/genuses do not hybridize).

————————————————

-- Book Miscellany --

 ———————-------—-----——

(only Ivory-bill-related mention in this post is at very end)

Since abandoning Elon Musk’s demolition of Twitter I have nowhere to mention books anymore… so, will kill some time citing a few here... mentioned 2 Amanda Montell books a bit ago and will now note a range of others I’ve enjoyed in the last 9 months (though few here will share my tastes). All nonfiction:

1)   Went back to read a bunch of Malcolm Gladwell’s compendiums, always delightful (hard to pick out a favorite; perhaps "Outliers"); don’t exactly remember why I had quit reading him long ago.

2)  However my all-time favorite essayist and columnist (the one I agree with, and relish, the most) is passionate Hal Crowther who unfortunately never had a wide national following, possibly because much (but by no means all) of his writing is focused on the South… those are the works I’ve been reading, but still my favorite, and the one to start with if you are unfamiliar with him (and can even find it) is the broader “Unarmed But Dangerous,” from 30 years ago:

https://www.amazon.com/Unarmed-but-Dangerous-Withering-Fundamentally/dp/1563521938

3)   A few months back a friend noted how often in conversation I’d say “I'm pretty stoic about that…” and then informed me that “stoicism” is quite a hot topic these days!  Little did I know… sometimes treated as a philosophy or a religion or just an approach to life, and in any event several good books/intros to it in bookstores these days (won’t pick a favorite, but we need more stoicism these days!).

4)  One of the celebrities now into stoicism is none-other than Jerry Seinfeld, and I be a Seinfeld-groupie… his volume “Is This Anything?” is just a compendium of his stand-up jokes, which without the visuals, the nuances, the voice inflections, I didn’t think could be funny, but surprisingly loved (and laughed at) almost all of it, though weakened toward end. Probably only for Seinfeld fans, though.

5)  In pursuit of psycholinguistic interests, David Shariatmadari’s “Don’t Believe A Word” is a great read for lay readers, even while hitting upon a lot of academic issues in linguistics study.

6)  David Bessis' "Mathematica" -- fantastic new book about mathematics, from an (intuitive) angle I'd never seen before (and including almost no actual number-crunching); but only for definite math-fans.

7)  Eric Barker’s “Barking Up the Wrong Tree” fun read/advice about life and success (somewhat in the style of Malcolm Gladwell).

8)  Steven Pinker's 2021 "Rationality"; pretty basic, straightforward, well-done take from the popular academic writer.

9)  For more comedy relief (if Seinfeld isn’t your thing), oh my gosh, every birder should have Matt Kracht’s “The Field Guide to Dumb Birds of the Whole Stupid World” on hand.

Probably another dozen+ volumes I've started in last 9 months, but if a book doesn't 'grab' me in first 25 pages I don't finish it :(

Will end with just an old link to a bit I posted over a dozen years ago about Tanner's volume "The Ivory-billed Woodpecker":

https://ivorybills.blogspot.com/2011/05/times-and-prices-change.html

————————-----—-------—

-- Special Day --

 ——————————————

Tomorrow is our big July 4th holiday. Everyone have a fun, safe one!

I’m not really a huge country music fan, but nonetheless a couple of selections for the special day:

…may our grand 250-year experiment not be squandered away this November.

——————————————

— Late Night Musings —

-------------------------------------------

Could certainly be wrong, but don’t foresee much interesting Ivorybill stuff likely happening through summertime, so may be posting miscellany (as a sort of time-and-space filler) until winter comes. 

Here a cult, there a cult, everywhere….

A friend recommended that I read Amanda Montell’s latest book “The Age of Magical Overthinking!.” I did and mostly enjoyed it, but more importantly it led me to her prior work “Cultish” (which I enjoyed even more) since, by coincidence I’d been thinking a bit about cults lately (seems timely) — thinking, and concluding, that cults aren’t just fringe and extreme as we prefer to imagine them in typical simplistic-binary, black-and-white or us-versus-them mentality, but rather they are commonplace, falling all along a spectrum from benign to dangerous/evil — basically, ALL large active groups are cults or at least cultish in gradations, me-thinketh now. Yup, the American Medical Assoc., the American Birding Assoc., NRA, ACLU, Catholic Church, the National Basketball Assoc., Microsoft Corporation, obviously Scientologists and the Republican Party, the American Association of Trombone Players (if there be such a thing), and on and on and on… all cultish to a greater degree than we acknowledge, with their emphasis on certain rules, behavior, beliefs, leaders, standards, viewpoints, etc. taking precedence over the individual. Cults in a sense are more the norm than the exception, of what largely keep society out of anarchy and disarray, holding people in line. The cultishness of any group coincides with the degree to which members forego critical-thinking and ongoing questioning, in favor of accepting things as they want/wish them to be or are told they are… basically letting entrenched biases, desires, predilections (instead of independent analysis), shape one’s thinking, conclusions, decisions... It’s fine to point out how benign many groups are, but there is potential for harm and blind obedience almost any time people gather in groups, crowds, associations, etc. expressing or claiming unison. The so-called "madness of crowds" has often been written about.

Skeptics call we IBWO-backers a cult as well (Jack Hitt, in his best-selling volume, “Bunch of Amateurs”  somewhat painted us that way). I’d dare say, fine, but skeptics too are a cult. And I no longer have a problem seeing us as such…. there are far worse cults one might mingle in! ...Just maybe keep away from the Kool-Aid.

-------------------------------------------

— Cicada Flagging… quick question —

 -----------------------------------------

Quick question (someone asked me about recently and maybe one of you entymologically-inclined folks know the answer to):

They were explaining to me about cicada “flagging” (HERE, HERE) — the pic above, where momma cicada lays her eggs (100s) at tip of branches, eventually turning them brown and dead before nymphs fall to ground to re-emerge 17 years later. Just for "fun” my friend was calculating how many cicadas would emerge on his property 17 years from now just based on counting the number of flags (and average no. of eggs per flag… hahh, he's more anal-compulsive than I am!).

Anyway, it’s well known that birds feasted on the cicadas this spring (...even the large number of interesting moths and butterflies I saw in last month was indicative of them being ignored by birds in favor of the newly-rich protein source). I assume(?) IBWOs would also gobble up cicadas (one of my friend's questions), but more specifically, he wondered if these flagging areas where the nymphs break out would be a dining target for IBWOs — Ivorybills are exceedingly difficult to search for in spring once foliage emerges, but would scanning these outer easily-accessible tree spots be of any use? I don’t know, though in my sparse/limited viewing, I’ve not noticed other species gravitating to these brown twiggy areas??? But anyone else have a thought….

Followup 6/27:  Surprised no one answered this; either no one knows the answer, or, it’s a dumb question…. or, no one wants to be seen answering a question on an Ivory-bill blog, hahhh!

In any event FWIW I’ve spent some time now observing dozens of these ‘flags’ in my area and haven’t yet seen a single bird of any species feeding thereupon, so there’s that.

-----------------------------------------

-- C. Hunter Weighs In -- +Addenda

 ---------------------------------------------------------

Didn’t really want to dive into the weeds of this too much right away, but since Chuck Hunter has now responded to the Webster video, feel in fairness (and of course my respect for Chuck) I should include his judgement, which is more generous and nuanced than I expected (though he certainly doesn’t proclaim these birds to be IBWO). Here are his initial 3 responses trying to analyze matters (possible he will have written more by the time you read these): 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/posts/8029136823774344/?comment_id=8029364070418286&reply_comment_id=8048060648548628

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/posts/8029136823774344/?comment_id=8029364070418286&reply_comment_id=8048122805209079

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/posts/8029136823774344/?comment_id=8029364070418286&reply_comment_id=8048196161868410

For me, the problems with the squared-off tail, the seeming reddish-brown(?) cast on the breast, the questionable sizes of the birds, the questionable length/shape of the outstretched wing, the s’posed crest that I don’t feel I can make out at all confidently, and especially the flashing white that I think is indecipherable(!) are too great to overcome and make a good ID of these birds possible — I don’t believe people in general comprehend the problems of interpreting white (and even dark!) in blurry, grainy, rapid video — light plays LOTS of tricks on perception — I honestly don’t know if there is ANY actual white on this bird, or if there is, then where it is!! Top-notch field birders have never even agreed whether the white in various frames of the Luneau video (much sharper than this video), is ventral or dorsal — if we can’t even agree on that, I can’t take seriously anyone stating where and how much white is on this moving bird. (Chuck tries to cover several of the possibilities, but that’s sorta the point, we can only talk multiple possibilities with no certainty or resolution.) With all that said, I don't want to discourage folks from offering any sincere evidence they feel they have of Ivorybills, I just want people to quit trying to overstate the firmness or definitiveness of such evidence (as Rachel was careful to do), until such evidence truly arises.

We do of course have Rachel’s verbal description of what she saw, but that is all we are left to hang our hats on, and when one has a hope, a desire, or an expectancy, to see something then skeptics are not going to take that at face value by itself (and from a cognitive standpoint they shouldn't). As Feynman always said, 'The easiest person to fool is yourself.'

ADDENDUM:  Hahhh! as I suspected would happen, Chuck already has at least one additional posting up since I posted the above (and there will likely be more, though I can't promise I'll keep adding them on):

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/posts/8029136823774344/?comment_id=8029364070418286&reply_comment_id=8048303515191008

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ADDENDUM2:

Looks like the FB discussions may go on for quite awhile, so not sure how much more I'll cover… s’pose it’s natural and can’t be avoided, but won't likely resolve much...

So, just want to remind people (especially any newbies) of what I believe to be the single best piece of evidence (though there exist many intriguing pieces) to arise since Cornell’s Big Woods work; i.e., the drone footage of these 2 birds from the Project Principalis site, here shown in zoom:

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/jZCg8Db9C8gbzYuF/

Paul Fischer did an annotated version of the extended version of this clip where he also points out a smaller bird early on — which, if indeed a Red-Headed Woodpecker, pretty clearly eliminates that possibility for the two larger birds:

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/Ywy9XCctJuoRXC6X/

The amount and placement of white on these birds is far more clear (though still not 100% certain) than on the bird in the Webster video. And the presence of TWO similar birds downplays any chance of a bird simply being a leucistic Pileated (...and I continue to believe that oddly patterned leucistic PIWOs, or even crows, et. al., likely account for some percentage of IBWO claims).

On a brighter note, will just reiterate that Rachel’s search site is relatively near to that of Proj. Principalis.