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An interesting (if somewhat pessimistic) post from Fred V. on IBWO success and detection from scaling form, beetle presence, and tree type in any given locale:
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/3oCr8smMiHC8BACY/
I’m not willing to vouch for every assertion Fred makes here (for example: “From ~ 1840 to 1907 measured inbreeding was already high range wide”; not sure we know that?), but the gist sounds right, even without knowing with certainty the full range of the IBWO diet or their reproductive success rates of late. I certainly hope he is wrong here (but acknowledge he could very well be right):
“The IBWO total population is now very low. Over 20 years there has only been ~ 18 to 22 different birds likely seen, some of these now dead."
With that said, he does note that "genetic issues could be critical by 2025" which is, in a sense, almost an optimistic take, since most skeptics would likely argue that genetic issues already prevailed decades ago.
Perhaps David Martin or Chuck Hunter will respond in comments to the post if they take issue with anything in particular in Fred’s overview.
And Fred ends with a teaser line about a microevolution hypothesis that he doesn’t spell out, but I s’pose may be fleshed out in a separate posting?
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