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Didn’t really want to dive into the weeds of this too much right away, but since Chuck Hunter has now responded to the Webster video, feel in fairness (and of course my respect for Chuck) I should include his judgement, which is more generous and nuanced than I expected (though he certainly doesn’t proclaim these birds to be IBWO). Here are his initial 3 responses trying to analyze matters (possible he will have written more by the time you read these):
For me, the problems with the squared-off tail, the seeming reddish-brown(?) cast on the breast, the questionable sizes of the birds, the questionable length/shape of the outstretched wing, the s’posed crest that I don’t feel I can make out at all confidently, and especially the flashing white that I think is indecipherable(!) are too great to overcome and make a good ID of these birds possible — I don’t believe people in general comprehend the problems of interpreting white (and even dark!) in blurry, grainy, rapid video — light plays LOTS of tricks on perception — I honestly don’t know if there is ANY actual white on this bird, or if there is, then where it is!! Top-notch field birders have never even agreed whether the white in various frames of the Luneau video (much sharper than this video), is ventral or dorsal — if we can’t even agree on that, I can’t take seriously anyone stating where and how much white is on this moving bird. (Chuck tries to cover several of the possibilities, but that’s sorta the point, we can only talk multiple possibilities with no certainty or resolution.) With all that said, I don't want to discourage folks from offering any sincere evidence they feel they have of Ivorybills, I just want people to quit trying to overstate the firmness or definitiveness of such evidence (as Rachel was careful to do), until such evidence truly arises.
We do of course have Rachel’s verbal description of what she saw, but that is all we are left to hang our hats on, and when one has a hope, a desire, or an expectancy, to see something then skeptics are not going to take that at face value by itself (and from a cognitive standpoint they shouldn't). As Feynman always said, 'The easiest person to fool is yourself.'
ADDENDUM: Hahhh! as I suspected would happen, Chuck already has at least one additional posting up since I posted the above (and there will likely be more, though I can't promise I'll keep adding them on):
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ADDENDUM2:
Looks like the FB discussions may go on for quite awhile, so not sure how much more I'll cover… s’pose it’s natural and can’t be avoided, but won't likely resolve much...
So, just want to remind people (especially any newbies) of what I believe to be the single best piece of evidence (though there exist many intriguing pieces) to arise since Cornell’s Big Woods work; i.e., the drone footage of these 2 birds from the Project Principalis site, here shown in zoom:
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/jZCg8Db9C8gbzYuF/
Paul Fischer did an annotated version of the extended version of this clip where he also points out a smaller bird early on — which, if indeed a Red-Headed Woodpecker, pretty clearly eliminates that possibility for the two larger birds:
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/Ywy9XCctJuoRXC6X/
The amount and placement of white on these birds is far more clear (though still not 100% certain) than on the bird in the Webster video. And the presence of TWO similar birds downplays any chance of a bird simply being a leucistic Pileated (...and I continue to believe that oddly patterned leucistic PIWOs, or even crows, et. al., likely account for some percentage of IBWO claims).
On a brighter note, will just reiterate that Rachel’s search site is relatively near to that of Proj. Principalis.
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