Monday, January 24, 2022

-- Upcoming --

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"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool."

                                                       -- Richard Feynman (bold added)


Gee, time flies, and the big day is almost upon us for the USFWS Zoom meeting Wednesday evening, following a pretty crazy few weeks over at the FB “Ivory-billed Woodpecker Re-discovered” group pages; probably hasn’t been that much active debate since early years over at BirdForum.net (and, on this very blog).

I still don't know what the format, ground rules, order of speakers, will be for the meeting, but shan't be long now.


Never been sure in my own mind whether FWS called for this meeting and comment extension because they genuinely wanted to review more scientific evidence for the species, or, more for public relations reasons, to mollify vocal believers by offering them a full hearing… but for now I’ll stick with my prediction that, barring truly new, significant evidence from the current winter search season, their decision to de-list will remain unchanged (though could be delayed).


I've employed the famous quote above from physicist Richard Feynman because I think that in essence will be the underlying message skeptics may employ at the Zoom meeting regarding "evidence" for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. And that will be the perception "believers" must overcome. No easy task. USFWS will be left to ponder whether there is greater risk of egg-on-their-face by declaring the species extinct, only to have it possibly documented in the future, or by maintaining it as endangered when most of the birding/ornithological/conservation community believes it extinct.

I presume that the bulk of regular readers here will already be familiar with what the 'pro'-IBWO speakers will have to say; what will be interesting to see is which skeptics speak (perhaps including some 'rock-star' birders), and which points they choose to emphasize in the limited time. One person I'd be particularly interested to hear from is Pete Dunne, but no idea if he's involved.


[actually not certain how much, if any, of the meeting I'll sit in on, though sure it will be well covered elsewhere if I don't manage to carve out the needed time]


P.S.... on a complete side-note, I awoke this morning to find this post in my Twitter feed:

https://twitter.com/mkeriverkeeper/status/1485270284454219777


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Tuesday, January 11, 2022

-- Another Date Set -- +Addenda

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In some encouraging news, according to a press report, the USFWS will hold (as requested by Matt Courtman) a final, virtual 90-minute “
public hearing to air competing views” of Ivory-bill persistence on January 26.  Encouraging on the one hand, but also hard to imagine officials will hear anything they haven’t already heard either through the written comment period or in private communications, and unlike that period which was dominated by “believers” this meeting may have a stronger showing of “deniers” countering with their case. Even if IBWO proponents got the bulk of time (say 60+ minutes to 30 or less for skeptics), it will be difficult to squeeze the most significant evidence into that time-frame, and perhaps the purpose of meeting is to give skeptics the opportunity in real time to counter such evidence. Very few details given as yet.

Also, I’m not sure if “public hearing” means it will be open to the public-at-large, but assume, in any event main speakers will be designated ahead of time (otherwise, it could be one raucous meeting!). When more info is available I will add it onto this post. 

(Hey, in the meantime, read Chris Haney's book ;))

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ADDENDUM:  OK, some additional information:


The virtual (Zoom) meeting will take place from 6 to 7:30pm (Central Standard Time) on Wed., Jan. 26, and requires preregistration to attend. Register here:

https://empsi.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZwvc--oqzItHtAA9U6PXgtsa5Xk85dKtaxm


(The form asks if you wish to make a public comment during the meeting… I have no idea if all who answer ‘yes’ to that will get a chance to?)


In addition to the meeting, the comment period on the FWS recommendation to de-list the IBWO has been extended for another 30 days (through Feb. 10), so if you still wish to comment you may do so.


…It would be great to be a fly on the wall at the current FWS meetings where this is all being discussed/debated ;)

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ADDENDUM 2:


ahhhh, was getting snippets of info from various small news services before, but finally found official announcement with all the info here:

https://www.fws.gov/southeast/news/2022/01/service-proposes-to-delist-ivory-billed-woodpecker/#endangeredspecies

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ADDENDUM 3  1/13/22 (just for fun)…:


First, just passing along a nice write-up on the amazing journey of the Steller Sea Eagle that has shown up, sort-of, ummm, against all probability, in the U.S. lower 48:

https://www.audubon.org/news/inside-amazing-cross-continent-saga-stellers-sea-eagle


Now, just for fun, am trying to figure out how the FWS Zoom meeting will go on Jan. 26. The meeting is only 90 minutes and I assume at least 10 minutes will be taken up with some sort of official opening and closing statements, and perhaps interruptions or glitches along the way, leaving at most 80 mins. for signed-up public speakers. What’s hard to guess ahead of time is how many folks will wish (or be allowed) to speak at the event. But say speakers are limited to a 4 minute presentation, that would then permit a max of 20 speakers, some of whom will undoubtedly be skeptics and conservationists arguing for de-listing (and spending any dollars/resources that would be allocated toward the IBWO on other more savable species). Even if it’s one-sided (which I’m not at all sure it will be) and there were only 5 naysayers, that leaves time for 15 IBWO proponents — I again have no idea if a lot more, or a lot less than 15 will request speaking time (with a lot less, then perhaps speaking time could be expanded well over 4 minutes). I assume FWS are themselves trying to work out the format and ground rules as they go along. Alternatively, maybe Matt Courtman, since he requested this meeting, will get to organize who and for how long proponents speak, and someone else will be responsible for organizing the rebuttal response; just don’t know but fun to think about…. and hey, maybe ALL my numbers are screwed up from the get-go… in less than 2 weeks we’ll know better... once again though, I'd keep expectations low; such a meeting may delay a final decision 'til after the current winter season is over, but still difficult for me to see it altering the decision.

[If anyone knows for certain more details of the meeting format, feel free to describe in comments.]

[addenda to Addenda!:  in comment below, "John" mentions he has signed up and been given 2 minutes to speak; I assume, unless I hear otherwise, that will be the limit for most or all speakers.]

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ADDENDUM 4  1/14/22  (sorry for extending this out so much, but hard to stay silent):


For any who don’t already follow it, I’ll note that the main IBWO-search Facebook page has become very active with comments (one post has over 230 comments!) back-and-forth on several different postings:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368


(I don’t personally engage on FB, at least not on controversial topics, because of my disdain for Zuck and his creation, but am happy to see more skeptics once again entering the fray on that site which is heavily believers preaching to the choir, existing within a bubble that I don’t think recognizes the magnitude of the skepticism that must  be overcome — with that said, I will say I admire the persistence and approach of Matt Courtman through all of this, even while finding him overly-optimistic. The success (for believers) of the USFWS Zoom meeting will likely be dependent not so much on the evidence presented by the pro-IBWO camp, but rather by the effectiveness of the counterarguments and points by skeptics.  

After all this time I still believe the best evidence (unfortunately) for the IBWO was that compiled by Cornell in the Big Woods over 15 years ago (which could’ve been a single bird, long-since deceased — I don’t believe that's the case, but just sayin’ could be). Everything since then has been weaker evidence, though often intriguing, but I won’t get into all the unresolvable arguments over it, leaving that to others. And while there may be more, newer evidence not yet made public, am very doubtful any of it will be a game-changer (even possible it could serve to increase skepticism).

Luckily, whatever USFWS eventually decides, folks will continue to search for the IBWO, and it may even eventually be documented, not by a searcher, but by another Gene Sparling or David Kulivan type figure who simply stumbles upon it.

...In the meantime, a Steller's Eagle continues to hang out in Maine (as of 1/14) giving photo-ops to lucky chasers. ;)


[Another Addenda to Addenda!:  I'll just point out this one comment from Professor Mark Bonta as one of the simple reasons I still hold significant hope for IBWO persistence:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/5013687525319304/ ]


and m-m-m-more Addenda: Well, at the risk of overdoing it and entertaining you too much ;) I’ll pass along yet another thread of comments from FB with a lot of back-and-forth (including ABA’s Nate Swick drawn back into the fray among other skeptics):

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/5009219549099435/


The thread begins to illustrate what has to be overcome (and quite likely won't be, without truly fresh, game-changing evidence), at the USFWS Zoom de-listing meeting in a little over a week. The next 9 days over at FB could be wild.

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Sunday, January 02, 2022

— A Little Birdtime Reading (...seriously, get THIS book) —

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Besides a cautionary tale, Woody’s Last Laugh illustrates at least 50 common, every-day mental shortcuts that don’t work, and how to recognize their traits and consequences... just a single point of uncertainty, whether a woodpecker was still living or not, could and did go on to trigger a host of serious cognitive errors and thinking fallacies in us….

“My book is among the first to expose cognitive derailment inside the environmental and conservation sciences, disciplines for framing knowledge that we normally consider less prone to such blunder. Yet across all human pursuits, mental mistakes routinely upset our need to find and apply reliable information. Human reason is fallible in science and conservation, too. Because we put up stiff resistance against ambiguity, we commit errors of thinking and action in order to achieve closure… None of us are immune from this cognitive bias, either. Indeed, several of our social identities and conventions tend to just magnify these errors in us.

                              from the Introduction to Dr. J. Christopher Haney’s book


Might as well start the new year off with something positive, like a new book!…


Mark Michaels called Christopher Haney’s recent volume, “Woody’s Last Laugh,the most important book on the ivorybill since Tanner,” which seemed like a bit of hyperbole when I first saw some excerpts and a couple of Dr. Haney’s video presentations… but after reading the volume over the Holidays, I agree (it is certainly the most unique Ivory-bill book in a long time, or, ever)… BUT with one possible huge caveat: it’s the most important book since Tanner if, If, IF, the Ivory-bill is eventually documented! — this book will go a long way to explaining the time it took, and the many ways scientists (and others) went astray. IF the IBWO is never conclusively documented, and 25 years from now the consensus is once again that the species went extinct in the 1940s or shortly thereafter, well, then this book may be relegated to the dust bin of so much other Ivory-bill commentary (even though as a historical and ecological account it still has great value). With that said, and as someone who majored in cognitive psychology in college, I do also enjoy this read simply as a text on cognitive science and critical thinking (important subjects these days, in their own right)… indeed, again, if the IBWO is eventually confirmed, I can imagine this volume becoming a text in some such college courses. It is all about the cognitive errors and biases we humans make in perceiving and analyzing the world around us.


Will get some (pragmatic) criticisms out of the way first… Unfortunately at 500 pages, some will avoid the volume as too long or intimidating… however many of those pages are copious chapter endnotes (which are, themselves, very worth scanning over, and offer an incredible treasure-trove for additional reading!); still, the main chronological text could probably have been organized better, written more succinctly, cut down somewhat (by a good editor), and succeeded at making the same points. It lacks a much-needed Index (big pet peeve of mine when missing). And I wish it was put out by a more major American publisher with better publicity and distribution. And finally, the title and cartoonish cover page unfortunately give the ‘feel’ of some sort of humorous, light-hearted book, instead of the substantive volume it is. (I might also mention that the title will falsely imply to many readers that the beloved cartoon character “Woody Woodpecker” was modeled after the Ivory-bill… he wasn’t, and Haney acknowledges this before book's end.) Some folks will ignore the volume thinking it too light-hearted and others will find its 500-page semi-college-text-like approach too burdensome. In short, it won’t reach the full audience it deserves. But both as an academic treatise on the IBWO (LOTS of historical/background info here as well) and as a discussion of timely issues in critical thinking more generally, I would encourage all to give it a whirl… and also realize that while Haney is largely critiquing deniers and skeptics, many of the points he makes cut BOTH ways; i.e. “believers” also suffer from cognitive lapses and biases (indeed, “groupthink,” “wishful thinking,” “cognitive bias,” "blind spots," and "cherry-picking" are among frequent accusations regularly hurled our way). So perhaps there is too scarce an application of “thinking errors” mentioned for believers, or for the current spate of evidence being offered by some as “proof” of Ivory-bill presence (with that said, though, Haney does at times voice harsh, maybe even overstated, criticisms of individuals and ideas across the board, and classifies himself as a bit of an 'agnostic' on the species’ current status, though “believers” will easily embrace him). Another interesting side-note that arises from time to time in these pages is the friction or rift between birders and academic ornithologists — yes, these are two quite different categories, even if not a clean split… though it must also be said that within each group there are certainly a mix of believers and naysayers (and furthermore, within both groups the majority are surely the latter). Overall though, I am truly gobsmacked by the sheer amount of historical, technical, speculative information and material Haney has compiled here, and thrilled to see someone bring together all these cognitive issues in one place. IF the Ivory-bill is documented it would be nice to see this volume shoot to #1 on bestseller lists!  So hey, someone out there please make it happen! ;))


My favorite chapter (though it is hard to choose) may be Chapter 8 (“Curse of Small n”) which critiques the work/conclusions of Tanner (which is the foundation of so much skepticism), as I’ve long held must be done, despite the remarkable effort Tanner made as a simple grad student solely (and impossibly) attempting to fully understand the IBWO. Many of the other chapters as well pick apart ‘myths’ or expose contradictions in our purported understanding of this species. Chapter 9 (“Poetic License”) may be my least favorite chapter where Haney takes to task various semantic aspects that are pretty commonplace in most writing and argumentation — ironically, Haney himself plays a little loose with the language (I think) with his theme comparing the IBWO to Woody Woodpecker in its efforts to toy with or “fool” us, when its likely only intention is to avoid us and live out its life. The “Woody” analogy detracts (for me) from the seriousness of what this book is actually all about (I don't even know if 'Woody Woodpecker' is still relevant or familiar to upcoming generations?).  Anyway, I also especially enjoyed parts of the final wrap-up chapter (“The Last Laugh”), as well as parts of the Afterword and 3 Appendices (especially Appendix 2) that follow — so don’t miss them. Also at the end comes a glossary of the 50+ cognitive flaws that become a bit of a blur through the text. A lot of the ‘cognitive psychology’ material is not new to me, but may hold special appeal to other readers less familiar with it. Every… single… chapter... makes points worth thinking about while also offering a breadth of rich information found in probably no other IBWO volume out there. Just chockfull of good stuff that may dismantle reader assumptions/preconceptions. Some of the arguments are disjointed or redundant in the way they reappear in different contexts through the volume, and Haney may overplay his hand a bit at times, but overall a monumental and innovative effort!… and from someone who's name, so far as I know, was not even previously associated with the whole IBWO debate. 


I’ll mention that at the very end Dr. Haney lists a few books for “further reading” about critical thinking (definitely a thrust of the book), and I was disappointed at how short that list is (7 entries), given how voluminous his IBWO references are. There have been a slew of such books out in recent years (one favorite of mine is Daniel J. Levitin’s “A Field Guide To Lies” but there are many others), and this really is a topic area that ought, in my opinion, be stressed and taught in schools from the elementary level on -- cognitive aspects of language and semantics should be taught right alongside spelling, grammar, syntax!!


Dr. Haney, by the way, was also friends and college colleague with Bill Pulliam (now deceased), for the many of you familiar with Bill’s great contributions to the IBWO saga. Haney is the author of several books and papers, and you can read much more about his extensive, wide-ranging background here:

https://www.terramarappliedsciences.com/about-j-christopher-haney


If you want to get a jump on his ideas before you grab hold of his book, here are 2 podcasts he’s been on that give a sense of his approach:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8iLbbzWoEHM


https://tinyurl.com/y4qvuqgl


Dr. Haney’s book came out in the same time-frame as Guy Luneau’s (David’s brother), The Ivory-billed Woodpecker: Taunting Extinction which by the author’s own admission is more “a feel good book, not so much a form of science paper.” I won’t discourage folks from reading Guy’s take, but will caution one ought do so with a hyper-critical eye and indeed accepting its “feel good” nature moreso than the “science” presented (which I believe suffers from some of the very cognitive biases Haney speaks of). I agree with a great many of Guy’s points and speculations though (in fact, by now, I’d almost wager some of them must be ‘truths’ in order to account for the Ivory-bill’s elusiveness!), but also think other statements/assertions are over-the-top and not so easily resolvable. The reason this controversy just goes on and on is, in part, because precision science in field biology is so difficult to do.


I’ll opportunistically throw in here one of my own long-ago speculations that Guy doesn’t mention, and no one has taken seriously (but I’ll stand by) which is that the IBWO has largely become a creature of the upper canopies, perhaps rarely in its lifetime venturing within say 30 ft. of the ground; nesting/roosting, foraging, mating, hanging out, well up in the forest skyline (at least in any areas that humans traffic) and largely out-of-range of clear human or camera sight (again, my feeble attempt to account for the scarcity of good sightings or photos over decades). Only Mike Collins’ tree-climbing technique (or a drone) might get a good view of such a bird… and ironically, the best evidence he puts forth is of a bird flying far below him (the so-called ‘fly-under’ video), not one at tree-top eye level. Anyway, I have fun imagining a species possibly learning to live its entire life in the treetops, detached from human interaction.


Finally, while skeptics no doubt tear their hair out at such further published tracts, I find it delightful and motivational that at this late stage, Ivory-bill books continue to emerge and press their case. Hopefully, the last one has yet to be written (...and in any event, I reiterate, read Haney's book!).


I’ll close out this post, on a Sunday morning, with a famous old quote from writer/naturalist Henry Beston in his classic, "The Outermost House":


We need another and a wiser and perhaps a more mystical concept of animals. Remote from universal nature and living by complicated artifice, man in civilization surveys the creature through the glass of his knowledge and sees thereby a feather magnified and the whole image in distortion. We patronize them for their incompleteness, for their tragic fate for having taken form so far below ourselves. And therein do we err. For the animal shall not be measured by man. In a world older and more complete than ours, they move finished and complete, gifted with the extension of the senses we have lost or never attained, living by voices we shall never hear. They are not brethren, they are not underlings: they are other nations, caught with ourselves in the net of life and time, fellow prisoners of the splendour and travail of the earth.” 


Amen….


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Wednesday, December 29, 2021

— No Resolutions, Just Idle Predictions —

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Even though I still believe (for old, simple reasons I won’t even elaborate on) small pockets of Ivory-bills yet exist (in multiple locales, no less) I'm discouraged at the current state-of-affairs, and will make a few dismal, purely speculative, predictions for the year ahead (based solely on the experiences/patterns of the last 15 years, which have a way of repeating themselves)… would be nice though if every one of them proves WRONG:


1)  The USFWS will proceed to declare the Ivory-bill extinct, and by mid-year the current blip up in IBWO interest will once again die down... With that said, I will mention that I think Chris Haney's recent volume, "Woody's Last Laugh" is the strongest argument for delaying any such declaration and perhaps putting off any USFWS decision for at least 6 months (will say more about this surprising volume in a few days).

2)  My guess though is that no truly significant, persuasive evidence (meaning authenticated photo or video) will emerge in those 6 months… :(

3)  Within the next year there will be at least one major hoax attempted. I mean, hey, we're overdue for one! (...and not the crappy-level ones I get sent to me in email!)

(I think there’s still at least a $10,000 reward outstanding, maybe even the old $50,000 reward, for anyone successfully leading authorities to living Ivory-bills -- the key word being "living," ohh, and "ivory-bills" ;)).

As I've previously said, with so much recent/renewed IBWO publicity, bogus 'sightings' from novices may also once again flourish over next 6 months.

4)  David Sibley won't report any Ivory-bill encounters in 2022. 😏


Hope I don’t have to come back next December with even worse predictions! Oy. (...and with all that said, I do have slightly, ever-so slightly, more hope for the second half of the year than the first half).


British sorts have a word for those of us who keep the IBWO story going... and... going. They call us "stringers" for stringing people along indefinitely... because, well, it's easy enough to do... hope in the next year to focus primarily only on any actual significant new visual evidence (sightings/photo/video) of the species' persistence, and ignore most of the other chatter that will continue on (though might get dragged into some other matters, or if something truly fresh and interesting comes along). There are, and may continue to be, some very nice overview articles coming forth (helpful for newbies on the subject), but feels like walking forever in circles or treading water to report on them, so won't be citing. 

In any event, do have a productive, and hopefully healthy, year ahead everyone.... (but maybe hold expectations in check; we've been down the road of promising claims and over-anticipation enough times already).


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Sunday, December 26, 2021

— Verbal Reports... Just Sayin' —

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Over the last few years some of the IBWO sightings sent to me have come from correspondents explaining they sent the same info to Cornell, but all they got back was a message essentially saying, ‘nice, write us back when you have a photo or video’… or, from their standpoint, simply saying ‘bugoff’. They think they’ll get a more positive response from me… but, usually don’t. I mention all this just to say I feel I’m in good company requesting that clear, indisputable photo/video be produced. 


Most verbal reports I get are disappointingly weak… and un-detailed. In 15 years I think I’ve only had 2 (or at most 3) reports I sent along to other authorities, thinking they might find them interesting. Sometimes claimants (who I find unconvincing) are adamant though about seeing IBWOs, so I direct them to an Audubon member or even ornithologist in their nearby area to tell their story to… I never hear from them again. Or if their report is just too un-detailed to give a yay or nay to, I’ll send back a list of questions… and usually never hear from them again either, or the answers sent back make it clear they did NOT see an IBWO. And there are the folks who write to happily inform me they saw an Ivory-bill in or near their very backyard… in Vermont or Massachusetts or Oregon. And those who know they saw an Ivory-bill, but turns out even after all this time, they’ve never heard of a Pileated Woodpecker. Then there are the yearly postings on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, Reddit and wherever claiming to have spotted IBWOs. In short, the vast majority of IBWO reports are poor at best (some even clearcut hoaxes), and it is little wonder that skeptics have tired of the whole affair by now. I've already warned that the recent publicity for IBWO will almost surely generate yet a new rash of mistaken identities. 


BUT the thing is, it doesn’t matter if dozens or hundreds of IBWO claims are worthless; it only matters if 1 or 2 (or more) are correct. One simply cannot generalize from all the bad reports to ALL reports, no matter how logical or tempting that may seem. So onward we trudge. I’ll have a final post for the year (and some dismal predictions!) in a few days. 


(On a more positive note, in early January, I’ll say some things about Chris Haney’s wonderful recent volume, “Woody’s Last Laugh,” a book that I regard as a surprising breath of fresh air amidst all of this, and that Mark Michaels calls "the most important book on the ivorybill since Tanner.")


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Friday, December 17, 2021

— Seeing Is Not (necessarily) Believing —

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One of the amazing things to witness when the Luneau video first came out was how quickly, equally experienced, skilled, reputable birders/ornithologists came to utterly divergent conclusions: i.e. the bird was clearly a normal Pileated Woodpecker in escape flight, or no, the bird was potentially/probably an IBWO, and certainly NOT a Pileated. Any cognitive scientist will tell you how weak human vision, and especially brief looks, is as a basis for firm conclusions… indeed, many a criminal trial has hinged on eyewitness testimony that later proved simply erroneous.

Anyway, there are thousands of great optical illusions, demonstrating the clear shortcomings of human vision. Here’s a big handful of some faves:


https://twitter.com/Woofkoof/status/1467904569279762440


https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1117597108259831808


https://twitter.com/TechAmazing/status/1335798167661662212


https://twitter.com/raastech/status/571203109919305728


https://twitter.com/sinix777/status/1384916614202679298


https://twitter.com/moreisdifferent/status/1445583175678238724


https://twitter.com/BrianRoemmele/status/1465919065998782469


https://twitter.com/rajdeep_baral/status/1308711678553415681


https://twitter.com/ThePoke/status/820926823479513088


https://twitter.com/RafaelCruzG11/status/372933866807230464



https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1467063629564448770


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWfFco7K9v8


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNGg2arYDe0


With all that said, nevertheless I've consistently long-felt that short of clearcut photographic/video evidence, the only IBWO evidence that's very persuasive to me are sightings claims (preferably not brief or distant) from experienced, knowledgeable observers (which remain few-and-far-between). As weak or distrustful as such claims can be, the other evidence proposed for IBWO presence is yet far weaker, reminiscent of Loch-Ness-Monster evidence (...though DNA evidence, if ever found, could be interesting).

It is especially devastating that despite millions of frames shot by automatic remote cameras (which have issues, but not the flaws/constraints of human observers) focused on cavities, foraging sites, and flyways not one single IBWO has been captured in years of effort. As others have suggested, perhaps Ivorybills actually reside in points A and C but we are only repeatedly looking in point B where they briefly traverse/disperse through on occasion… or, of course, perhaps they simply exist no more. The beat goes on….

(I have 4 or 5 more postings I'm considering between now and end of January, but after that it could be a slow year here at the blog.)


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Saturday, December 11, 2021

-- Monday Night Discussion --

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Slightly short notice, but for his upcoming Monday Zoom broadcast (this Monday night, 8pm EST) Matt Courtman is planning to return with Mike Collins and inviting any skeptics/critics of Mike’s work to come on board with their questions/concerns, especially in regards to Mike’s o-o-old “fly under” video which was extensively discussed in last week’s Monday Zoom.

There are several reasons (I believe) why that video, and other of Mike’s work, has never gained much traction, but this is a chance for skeptics to weigh in — I would encourage them to do so, despite their likely fear of how quickly any discussion will deteriorate, but I think Matt is trying to be an honest broker in opening the platform to competing views (while granted he has definite positive view). The invitation comes at the end of this video:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1rnK24F7RY


I’d especially encourage those who have followed Mike’s claims for years (actually, well over a decade) and are already very familiar with his arguments and videos to engage… but certainly those who only more recently learned of his work can join in as well.


You can check Matt’s FB site here:

https://www.facebook.com/MissionIvorybill  

OR, this FB page will have a Zoom link on Monday:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368

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Friday, December 10, 2021

-- Holiday Shopping --

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Given the delays in mail and shipping this year, it’s almost getting too late for Xmas shopping (or Festivus, as the case may be), but if you are still looking for something for that beloved Ivory-bill addict (including yourself) here’s a couple of nice T-shirts (I have no connection to either product):


https://www.redbubble.com/i/t-shirt/Audubon-s-Ivory-Billed-Woodpeckers-by-nefaeryous/18126986.1YYVU


https://www.amazon.com/Ivory-Billed-Woodpecker-America-T-Shirt/dp/B07N7Z9H5M?customId=B07537TZ66&th=1


There are plenty of other choices at places like Cafepress and Zazzle, as well as at Amazon. And of course Ivory-bill books, mugs, prints, artwork, trinkets etc.etc. can be found as well.


Merry shopping….

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Wednesday, December 08, 2021

— Intermission —

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Not for everybody, but while biding time, just a 6-year-old essay on mathematics here:

https://jornbettin.com/2015/04/01/the-antidote-to-misuse-of-mathematics-and-junk-data/


…and then utterly changing the subject and mood, here’s Terry Gross interviewing Mel Brooks this week on "Fresh Air":

https://www.npr.org/2021/12/07/1061836388/mel-brooks-all-about-me


...finally, so as not to drop a post entirely devoid of IBWO references, here's Connecticut woodcarver Keith Mueller on Facebook showing off some of his recent gorgeous work:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/4857237337630991/


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Saturday, December 04, 2021

-- Streamlining --

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For the last 2 years I’ve wanted to update/streamline the cluttered left-hand column of the blog, but with interest lagging in this whole topic lacked the energy to do so. Interest has perked up slightly since the USFWS announcement so finally found the time this weekend to eliminate a lot of links (especially dead ones). If any of the ones I’ve scratched prove particularly useful in months to come I’ll reinstate. Especially sorry to remove the IBWO Researchers Forum which seems to now be defunct (if someone knows otherwise let me know; they have suffered long downtimes previously, but this one seems permanent?).


I have added the British BirdForum.net site, since if there is any significant IBWO news to come it will likely be well-covered and debated at that forum, which probably had the most significant, wide-ranging (not always pleasant) debate of any site, early-on, over the evidence Cornell originally brought to light (indeed, if I remember correctly, it was some of the vitriol at that site that led to IBWO Researchers Forum being formed!).

I've also added one two of the Ivory-bill Facebook sites which tend to be somewhat active (though, like many, I despise Facebook!... but one can't avoid it these days, and it is effective at spreading ideas/news, even if much of it needs to be taken with a grain of salt).


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Thursday, December 02, 2021

-- Waiting Game --

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Am getting a small assortment of inquiries lately that I don’t have the time or energy to reply to in detail, so will simply respond to in a general way:


1)  No, I don't expect the USFWS to alter their recommendation to de-list the IBWO, though it is possible they'll postpone a decision long enough that perhaps fresh, persuasive evidence will come to light (though I’m not expecting anything significant soon). USFWS is likely very aware of most all the prevailing evidence from the last decade+ (not to mention the century prior), none of which will likely sway their opinion... but, hey, I've been surprised before, and always a slim chance that sheer public pressure, and not conservation issues, might cause them to alter their stance.

  

2)  People are sending me various articles, links, news stories, etc., because so much IBWO-related material has arisen lately (that I don’t report on). These are almost always things I’m aware of, but don’t post about because the content is either old, redundant, or simply weak.

Folks can continue sending things in (I’d still rather have 10 people send me something I already know about, than miss out on something that might be new to me); just know that if I don’t use something you send in, it doesn’t mean I didn’t receive or appreciate the email, but it simply didn’t pass a certain threshold of significance. But yeah, lots of nice retrospective articles out there.

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Monday, November 29, 2021

-- Of Anecdotes and Places --

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Am always a bit hesitant to pass along anecdotes these days (just because  anecdotes from non-birders are so many and so rarely credible), but with little else to report will cite this recent Georgia one from Rob Tymstra over at the main Facebook Ivory-bill forum, in part because it reminds me of an old story I posted here almost 10 years ago:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/4827523787269013/


…and my post, regarding Georgia, from 2012:

https://ivorybills.blogspot.com/2012/02/and-back-to-georgia.html


At the time I was wondering (as I still do) if parts of Georgia deserved more search attention than they were getting when compared to states like Florida and Louisiana, or even South Carolina and Texas. An even far odder locale I’ve pondered about, principally because of some of Bill Pulliam’s old postings, is western Tennessee.

An old bromide essentially says it’s silly to keep doing the same thing over and over again and expect a different result… yet we keep concentrating IBWO searches in the same areas repeatedly over decades without definitive documentation (though based upon some evidence, and the sheer size of such locales)… but if the birds, which are powerful flyers, have moved on, it’s difficult to say just which lesser-explored areas deserve more attention than they’ve ever received… another reason the USFWS wish to declare ‘extinction’ seems premature.

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ADDENDUM 11/30/21:


The deadline for comments to the USFWS on its recommendation to de-list the Ivory-billed Woodpecker has now passed, with ~200 ~100 comments sent in (I assume these are mostly opposed to de-listing, but did not read all of them, so don’t know if any were actually posted in support of the ‘extinction’ designation). I doubt the Agency will be swayed, though I suspect there is dissension in USFWS over what action to take, so just perhaps minds will be changed or an extension will be given before a final decision is made.

Bobby Harrison was among the last to comment, and claims a 10-second video almost 14 months old showing an Ivory-bill in flight at an undisclosed location — seems likely if it was of any quality it would’ve (and should’ve) come to light long before now!…. indeed, I worry a bit that it will simply further exasperate officials as more of the same ol' same ol' brief, grainy, unconvincing frames; i.e. THIS is the best believers can ever come up with (yaaaawn). Harrison’s full comment to the Agency (where he hopes to present the video) can be downloaded from here:

https://www.regulations.gov/comment/FWS-R4-ES-2020-0109-0061

(...the film clip may be made public after being viewed by USFWS)


No idea how soon USFWS expects to make their final decision (I assume months away), but again probably not worth getting hopes up unless some truly better evidence arises this winter season. Luckily, searches will continue no matter what decision is made.


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Saturday, November 27, 2021

-- Collins Is Courtman's Next Guest --

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Mike Collins is set to be Matt Courtman's next guest on his Ivorybill podcast series, this coming Monday evening at 8pm EST via Zoom:

https://www.facebook.com/events/421008052855134

Monday also marks the end of the USFWS comment period for their recommendation to delist the Ivorybill, so just perhaps some FWS representatives will be on-hand to give a listen.

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