-- Another Date Set -- +Addenda

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In some encouraging news, according to a press report, the USFWS will hold (as requested by Matt Courtman) a final, virtual 90-minute “public hearing to air competing views” of Ivory-bill persistence on January 26.  Encouraging on the one hand, but also hard to imagine officials will hear anything they haven’t already heard either through the written comment period or in private communications, and unlike that period which was dominated by “believers” this meeting may have a stronger showing of “deniers” countering with their case. Even if IBWO proponents got the bulk of time (say 60+ minutes to 30 or less for skeptics), it will be difficult to squeeze the most significant evidence into that time-frame, and perhaps the purpose of meeting is to give skeptics the opportunity in real time to counter such evidence. Very few details given as yet.

Also, I’m not sure if “public hearing” means it will be open to the public-at-large, but assume, in any event main speakers will be designated ahead of time (otherwise, it could be one raucous meeting!). When more info is available I will add it onto this post. 

(Hey, in the meantime, read Chris Haney's book ;))

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ADDENDUM:  OK, some additional information:

The virtual (Zoom) meeting will take place from 6 to 7:30pm (Central Standard Time) on Wed., Jan. 26, and requires preregistration to attend. Register here:

https://empsi.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZwvc--oqzItHtAA9U6PXgtsa5Xk85dKtaxm

(The form asks if you wish to make a public comment during the meeting… I have no idea if all who answer ‘yes’ to that will get a chance to?)

In addition to the meeting, the comment period on the FWS recommendation to de-list the IBWO has been extended for another 30 days (through Feb. 10), so if you still wish to comment you may do so.

…It would be great to be a fly on the wall at the current FWS meetings where this is all being discussed/debated ;)

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ADDENDUM 2:

ahhhh, was getting snippets of info from various small news services before, but finally found official announcement with all the info here:

https://www.fws.gov/southeast/news/2022/01/service-proposes-to-delist-ivory-billed-woodpecker/#endangeredspecies

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ADDENDUM 3  1/13/22 (just for fun)…:

First, just passing along a nice write-up on the amazing journey of the Steller Sea Eagle that has shown up, sort-of, ummm, against all probability, in the U.S. lower 48:

https://www.audubon.org/news/inside-amazing-cross-continent-saga-stellers-sea-eagle

Now, just for fun, am trying to figure out how the FWS Zoom meeting will go on Jan. 26. The meeting is only 90 minutes and I assume at least 10 minutes will be taken up with some sort of official opening and closing statements, and perhaps interruptions or glitches along the way, leaving at most 80 mins. for signed-up public speakers. What’s hard to guess ahead of time is how many folks will wish (or be allowed) to speak at the event. But say speakers are limited to a 4 minute presentation, that would then permit a max of 20 speakers, some of whom will undoubtedly be skeptics and conservationists arguing for de-listing (and spending any dollars/resources that would be allocated toward the IBWO on other more savable species). Even if it’s one-sided (which I’m not at all sure it will be) and there were only 5 naysayers, that leaves time for 15 IBWO proponents — I again have no idea if a lot more, or a lot less than 15 will request speaking time (with a lot less, then perhaps speaking time could be expanded well over 4 minutes). I assume FWS are themselves trying to work out the format and ground rules as they go along. Alternatively, maybe Matt Courtman, since he requested this meeting, will get to organize who and for how long proponents speak, and someone else will be responsible for organizing the rebuttal response; just don’t know but fun to think about…. and hey, maybe ALL my numbers are screwed up from the get-go… in less than 2 weeks we’ll know better... once again though, I'd keep expectations low; such a meeting may delay a final decision 'til after the current winter season is over, but still difficult for me to see it altering the decision.

[If anyone knows for certain more details of the meeting format, feel free to describe in comments.]

[addenda to Addenda!:  in comment below, "John" mentions he has signed up and been given 2 minutes to speak; I assume, unless I hear otherwise, that will be the limit for most or all speakers.]

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ADDENDUM 4  1/14/22  (sorry for extending this out so much, but hard to stay silent):

For any who don’t already follow it, I’ll note that the main IBWO-search Facebook page has become very active with comments (one post has over 230 comments!) back-and-forth on several different postings:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368

(I don’t personally engage on FB, at least not on controversial topics, because of my disdain for Zuck and his creation, but am happy to see more skeptics once again entering the fray on that site which is heavily believers preaching to the choir, existing within a bubble that I don’t think recognizes the magnitude of the skepticism that must  be overcome — with that said, I will say I admire the persistence and approach of Matt Courtman through all of this, even while finding him overly-optimistic. The success (for believers) of the USFWS Zoom meeting will likely be dependent not so much on the evidence presented by the pro-IBWO camp, but rather by the effectiveness of the counterarguments and points by skeptics.  

After all this time I still believe the best evidence (unfortunately) for the IBWO was that compiled by Cornell in the Big Woods over 15 years ago (which could’ve been a single bird, long-since deceased — I don’t believe that's the case, but just sayin’ could be). Everything since then has been weaker evidence, though often intriguing, but I won’t get into all the unresolvable arguments over it, leaving that to others. And while there may be more, newer evidence not yet made public, am very doubtful any of it will be a game-changer (even possible it could serve to increase skepticism).

Luckily, whatever USFWS eventually decides, folks will continue to search for the IBWO, and it may even eventually be documented, not by a searcher, but by another Gene Sparling or David Kulivan type figure who simply stumbles upon it.

...In the meantime, a Steller's Eagle continues to hang out in Maine (as of 1/14) giving photo-ops to lucky chasers. ;)

[Another Addenda to Addenda!:  I'll just point out this one comment from Professor Mark Bonta as one of the simple reasons I still hold significant hope for IBWO persistence:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/5013687525319304/ ]

…and m-m-m-more Addenda: Well, at the risk of overdoing it and entertaining you too much ;) I’ll pass along yet another thread of comments from FB with a lot of back-and-forth (including ABA’s Nate Swick drawn back into the fray among other skeptics):

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/5009219549099435/

The thread begins to illustrate what has to be overcome (and quite likely won't be, without truly fresh, game-changing evidence), at the USFWS Zoom de-listing meeting in a little over a week. The next 9 days over at FB could be wild.

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— A Little Birdtime Reading (...seriously, get THIS book) —

---------------------------------------------------

“Besides a cautionary tale, Woody’s Last Laugh illustrates at least 50 common, every-day mental shortcuts that don’t work, and how to recognize their traits and consequences... just a single point of uncertainty, whether a woodpecker was still living or not, could and did go on to trigger a host of serious cognitive errors and thinking fallacies in us….

“My book is among the first to expose cognitive derailment inside the environmental and conservation sciences, disciplines for framing knowledge that we normally consider less prone to such blunder. Yet across all human pursuits, mental mistakes routinely upset our need to find and apply reliable information. Human reason is fallible in science and conservation, too. Because we put up stiff resistance against ambiguity, we commit errors of thinking and action in order to achieve closure… None of us are immune from this cognitive bias, either. Indeed, several of our social identities and conventions tend to just magnify these errors in us.”

                              — from the Introduction to Dr. J. Christopher Haney’s book

Might as well start the new year off with something positive, like a new book!…

Mark Michaels called Christopher Haney’s recent volume, “Woody’s Last Laugh,” “the most important book on the ivorybill since Tanner,” which seemed like a bit of hyperbole when I first saw some excerpts and a couple of Dr. Haney’s video presentations… but after reading the volume over the Holidays, I agree (it is certainly the most unique Ivory-bill book in a long time, or, ever)… BUT with one possible huge caveat: it’s the most important book since Tanner if, If, IF, the Ivory-bill is eventually documented! — this book will go a long way to explaining the time it took, and the many ways scientists (and others) went astray. IF the IBWO is never conclusively documented, and 25 years from now the consensus is once again that the species went extinct in the 1940s or shortly thereafter, well, then this book may be relegated to the dust bin of so much other Ivory-bill commentary (even though as a historical and ecological account it still has great value). With that said, and as someone who majored in cognitive psychology in college, I do also enjoy this read simply as a text on cognitive science and critical thinking (important subjects these days, in their own right)… indeed, again, if the IBWO is eventually confirmed, I can imagine this volume becoming a text in some such college courses. It is all about the cognitive errors and biases we humans make in perceiving and analyzing the world around us.

Will get some (pragmatic) criticisms out of the way first… Unfortunately at 500 pages, some will avoid the volume as too long or intimidating… however many of those pages are copious chapter endnotes (which are, themselves, very worth scanning over, and offer an incredible treasure-trove for additional reading!); still, the main chronological text could probably have been organized better, written more succinctly, cut down somewhat (by a good editor), and succeeded at making the same points. It lacks a much-needed Index (big pet peeve of mine when missing). And I wish it was put out by a more major American publisher with better publicity and distribution. And finally, the title and cartoonish cover page unfortunately give the ‘feel’ of some sort of humorous, light-hearted book, instead of the substantive volume it is. (I might also mention that the title will falsely imply to many readers that the beloved cartoon character “Woody Woodpecker” was modeled after the Ivory-bill… he wasn’t, and Haney acknowledges this before book's end.) Some folks will ignore the volume thinking it too light-hearted and others will find its 500-page semi-college-text-like approach too burdensome. In short, it won’t reach the full audience it deserves. But both as an academic treatise on the IBWO (LOTS of historical/background info here as well) and as a discussion of timely issues in critical thinking more generally, I would encourage all to give it a whirl… and also realize that while Haney is largely critiquing deniers and skeptics, many of the points he makes cut BOTH ways; i.e. “believers” also suffer from cognitive lapses and biases (indeed, “groupthink,” “wishful thinking,” “cognitive bias,” "blind spots," and "cherry-picking" are among frequent accusations regularly hurled our way). So perhaps there is too scarce an application of “thinking errors” mentioned for believers, or for the current spate of evidence being offered by some as “proof” of Ivory-bill presence (with that said, though, Haney does at times voice harsh, maybe even overstated, criticisms of individuals and ideas across the board, and classifies himself as a bit of an 'agnostic' on the species’ current status, though “believers” will easily embrace him). Another interesting side-note that arises from time to time in these pages is the friction or rift between birders and academic ornithologists — yes, these are two quite different categories, even if not a clean split… though it must also be said that within each group there are certainly a mix of believers and naysayers (and furthermore, within both groups the majority are surely the latter). Overall though, I am truly gobsmacked by the sheer amount of historical, technical, speculative information and material Haney has compiled here, and thrilled to see someone bring together all these cognitive issues in one place. IF the Ivory-bill is documented it would be nice to see this volume shoot to #1 on bestseller lists!  So hey, someone out there please make it happen! ;))

My favorite chapter (though it is hard to choose) may be Chapter 8 (“Curse of Small n”) which critiques the work/conclusions of Tanner (which is the foundation of so much skepticism), as I’ve long held must be done, despite the remarkable effort Tanner made as a simple grad student solely (and impossibly) attempting to fully understand the IBWO. Many of the other chapters as well pick apart ‘myths’ or expose contradictions in our purported understanding of this species. Chapter 9 (“Poetic License”) may be my least favorite chapter where Haney takes to task various semantic aspects that are pretty commonplace in most writing and argumentation — ironically, Haney himself plays a little loose with the language (I think) with his theme comparing the IBWO to Woody Woodpecker in its efforts to toy with or “fool” us, when its likely only intention is to avoid us and live out its life. The “Woody” analogy detracts (for me) from the seriousness of what this book is actually all about (I don't even know if 'Woody Woodpecker' is still relevant or familiar to upcoming generations?).  Anyway, I also especially enjoyed parts of the final wrap-up chapter (“The Last Laugh”), as well as parts of the Afterword and 3 Appendices (especially Appendix 2) that follow — so don’t miss them. Also at the end comes a glossary of the 50+ cognitive flaws that become a bit of a blur through the text. A lot of the ‘cognitive psychology’ material is not new to me, but may hold special appeal to other readers less familiar with it. Every… single… chapter... makes points worth thinking about while also offering a breadth of rich information found in probably no other IBWO volume out there. Just chockfull of good stuff that may dismantle reader assumptions/preconceptions. Some of the arguments are disjointed or redundant in the way they reappear in different contexts through the volume, and Haney may overplay his hand a bit at times, but overall a monumental and innovative effort!… and from someone who's name, so far as I know, was not even previously associated with the whole IBWO debate. 

I’ll mention that at the very end Dr. Haney lists a few books for “further reading” about critical thinking (definitely a thrust of the book), and I was disappointed at how short that list is (7 entries), given how voluminous his IBWO references are. There have been a slew of such books out in recent years (one favorite of mine is Daniel J. Levitin’s “A Field Guide To Lies” but there are many others), and this really is a topic area that ought, in my opinion, be stressed and taught in schools from the elementary level on -- cognitive aspects of language and semantics should be taught right alongside spelling, grammar, syntax!!

Dr. Haney, by the way, was also friends and college colleague with Bill Pulliam (now deceased), for the many of you familiar with Bill’s great contributions to the IBWO saga. Haney is the author of several books and papers, and you can read much more about his extensive, wide-ranging background here:

https://www.terramarappliedsciences.com/about-j-christopher-haney

If you want to get a jump on his ideas before you grab hold of his book, here are 2 podcasts he’s been on that give a sense of his approach:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8iLbbzWoEHM

https://tinyurl.com/y4qvuqgl

Dr. Haney’s book came out in the same time-frame as Guy Luneau’s (David’s brother), “The Ivory-billed Woodpecker: Taunting Extinction” which by the author’s own admission is more “a feel good book, not so much a form of science paper.” I won’t discourage folks from reading Guy’s take, but will caution one ought do so with a hyper-critical eye and indeed accepting its “feel good” nature moreso than the “science” presented (which I believe suffers from some of the very cognitive biases Haney speaks of). I agree with a great many of Guy’s points and speculations though (in fact, by now, I’d almost wager some of them must be ‘truths’ in order to account for the Ivory-bill’s elusiveness!), but also think other statements/assertions are over-the-top and not so easily resolvable. The reason this controversy just goes on and on is, in part, because precision science in field biology is so difficult to do.

I’ll opportunistically throw in here one of my own long-ago speculations that Guy doesn’t mention, and no one has taken seriously (but I’ll stand by) which is that the IBWO has largely become a creature of the upper canopies, perhaps rarely in its lifetime venturing within say 30 ft. of the ground; nesting/roosting, foraging, mating, hanging out, well up in the forest skyline (at least in any areas that humans traffic) and largely out-of-range of clear human or camera sight (again, my feeble attempt to account for the scarcity of good sightings or photos over decades). Only Mike Collins’ tree-climbing technique (or a drone) might get a good view of such a bird… and ironically, the best evidence he puts forth is of a bird flying far below him (the so-called ‘fly-under’ video), not one at tree-top eye level. Anyway, I have fun imagining a species possibly learning to live its entire life in the treetops, detached from human interaction.

Finally, while skeptics no doubt tear their hair out at such further published tracts, I find it delightful and motivational that at this late stage, Ivory-bill books continue to emerge and press their case. Hopefully, the last one has yet to be written (...and in any event, I reiterate, read Haney's book!).

I’ll close out this post, on a Sunday morning, with a famous old quote from writer/naturalist Henry Beston in his classic, "The Outermost House":

“We need another and a wiser and perhaps a more mystical concept of animals. Remote from universal nature and living by complicated artifice, man in civilization surveys the creature through the glass of his knowledge and sees thereby a feather magnified and the whole image in distortion. We patronize them for their incompleteness, for their tragic fate for having taken form so far below ourselves. And therein do we err. For the animal shall not be measured by man. In a world older and more complete than ours, they move finished and complete, gifted with the extension of the senses we have lost or never attained, living by voices we shall never hear. They are not brethren, they are not underlings: they are other nations, caught with ourselves in the net of life and time, fellow prisoners of the splendour and travail of the earth.” 

Amen….

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— No Resolutions, Just Idle Predictions —

--------------------------------------------------------------

Even though I still believe (for old, simple reasons I won’t even elaborate on) small pockets of Ivory-bills yet exist (in multiple locales, no less) I'm discouraged at the current state-of-affairs, and will make a few dismal, purely speculative, predictions for the year ahead (based solely on the experiences/patterns of the last 15 years, which have a way of repeating themselves)… would be nice though if every one of them proves WRONG:

1)  The USFWS will proceed to declare the Ivory-bill extinct, and by mid-year the current blip up in IBWO interest will once again die down... With that said, I will mention that I think Chris Haney's recent volume, "Woody's Last Laugh" is the strongest argument for delaying any such declaration and perhaps putting off any USFWS decision for at least 6 months (will say more about this surprising volume in a few days).

2)  My guess though is that no truly significant, persuasive evidence (meaning authenticated photo or video) will emerge in those 6 months… :(

3)  Within the next year there will be at least one major hoax attempted. I mean, hey, we're overdue for one! (...and not the crappy-level ones I get sent to me in email!)

(I think there’s still at least a $10,000 reward outstanding, maybe even the old $50,000 reward, for anyone successfully leading authorities to living Ivory-bills -- the key word being "living," ohh, and "ivory-bills" ;)).

As I've previously said, with so much recent/renewed IBWO publicity, bogus 'sightings' from novices may also once again flourish over next 6 months.

4)  David Sibley won't report any Ivory-bill encounters in 2022. 😏

Hope I don’t have to come back next December with even worse predictions! Oy. (...and with all that said, I do have slightly, ever-so slightly, more hope for the second half of the year than the first half).

British sorts have a word for those of us who keep the IBWO story going... and... going. They call us "stringers" for stringing people along indefinitely... because, well, it's easy enough to do... hope in the next year to focus primarily only on any actual significant new visual evidence (sightings/photo/video) of the species' persistence, and ignore most of the other chatter that will continue on (though might get dragged into some other matters, or if something truly fresh and interesting comes along). There are, and may continue to be, some very nice overview articles coming forth (helpful for newbies on the subject), but feels like walking forever in circles or treading water to report on them, so won't be citing. 

In any event, do have a productive, and hopefully healthy, year ahead everyone.... (but maybe hold expectations in check; we've been down the road of promising claims and over-anticipation enough times already).

——————-------------------------——————

— Verbal Reports... Just Sayin' —

 —————--———————————

Over the last few years some of the IBWO sightings sent to me have come from correspondents explaining they sent the same info to Cornell, but all they got back was a message essentially saying, ‘nice, write us back when you have a photo or video’… or, from their standpoint, simply saying ‘bugoff’. They think they’ll get a more positive response from me… but, usually don’t. I mention all this just to say I feel I’m in good company requesting that clear, indisputable photo/video be produced. 

Most verbal reports I get are disappointingly weak… and un-detailed. In 15 years I think I’ve only had 2 (or at most 3) reports I sent along to other authorities, thinking they might find them interesting. Sometimes claimants (who I find unconvincing) are adamant though about seeing IBWOs, so I direct them to an Audubon member or even ornithologist in their nearby area to tell their story to… I never hear from them again. Or if their report is just too un-detailed to give a yay or nay to, I’ll send back a list of questions… and usually never hear from them again either, or the answers sent back make it clear they did NOT see an IBWO. And there are the folks who write to happily inform me they saw an Ivory-bill in or near their very backyard… in Vermont or Massachusetts or Oregon. And those who know they saw an Ivory-bill, but turns out even after all this time, they’ve never heard of a Pileated Woodpecker. Then there are the yearly postings on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, Reddit and wherever claiming to have spotted IBWOs. In short, the vast majority of IBWO reports are poor at best (some even clearcut hoaxes), and it is little wonder that skeptics have tired of the whole affair by now. I've already warned that the recent publicity for IBWO will almost surely generate yet a new rash of mistaken identities. 

BUT the thing is, it doesn’t matter if dozens or hundreds of IBWO claims are worthless; it only matters if 1 or 2 (or more) are correct. One simply cannot generalize from all the bad reports to ALL reports, no matter how logical or tempting that may seem. So onward we trudge. I’ll have a final post for the year (and some dismal predictions!) in a few days. 

(On a more positive note, in early January, I’ll say some things about Chris Haney’s wonderful recent volume, “Woody’s Last Laugh,” a book that I regard as a surprising breath of fresh air amidst all of this, and that Mark Michaels calls "the most important book on the ivorybill since Tanner.")

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— Seeing Is Not (necessarily) Believing —

 ————-----------------------------——————

One of the amazing things to witness when the Luneau video first came out was how quickly, equally experienced, skilled, reputable birders/ornithologists came to utterly divergent conclusions: i.e. the bird was clearly a normal Pileated Woodpecker in escape flight, or no, the bird was potentially/probably an IBWO, and certainly NOT a Pileated. Any cognitive scientist will tell you how weak human vision, and especially brief looks, is as a basis for firm conclusions… indeed, many a criminal trial has hinged on eyewitness testimony that later proved simply erroneous.

Anyway, there are thousands of great optical illusions, demonstrating the clear shortcomings of human vision. Here’s a big handful of some faves:

https://twitter.com/Woofkoof/status/1467904569279762440

https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1117597108259831808

https://twitter.com/TechAmazing/status/1335798167661662212

https://twitter.com/raastech/status/571203109919305728

https://twitter.com/sinix777/status/1384916614202679298

https://twitter.com/moreisdifferent/status/1445583175678238724

https://twitter.com/BrianRoemmele/status/1465919065998782469

https://twitter.com/rajdeep_baral/status/1308711678553415681

https://twitter.com/ThePoke/status/820926823479513088

https://twitter.com/RafaelCruzG11/status/372933866807230464

https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1470506334126628866

https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1467063629564448770

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWfFco7K9v8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNGg2arYDe0

With all that said, nevertheless I've consistently long-felt that short of clearcut photographic/video evidence, the only IBWO evidence that's very persuasive to me are sightings claims (preferably not brief or distant) from experienced, knowledgeable observers (which remain few-and-far-between). As weak or distrustful as such claims can be, the other evidence proposed for IBWO presence is yet far weaker, reminiscent of Loch-Ness-Monster evidence (...though DNA evidence, if ever found, could be interesting).

It is especially devastating that despite millions of frames shot by automatic remote cameras (which have issues, but not the flaws/constraints of human observers) focused on cavities, foraging sites, and flyways not one single IBWO has been captured in years of effort. As others have suggested, perhaps Ivorybills actually reside in points A and C but we are only repeatedly looking in point B where they briefly traverse/disperse through on occasion… or, of course, perhaps they simply exist no more. The beat goes on….

(I have 4 or 5 more postings I'm considering between now and end of January, but after that it could be a slow year here at the blog.)

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-- Monday Night Discussion --

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Slightly short notice, but for his upcoming Monday Zoom broadcast (this Monday night, 8pm EST) Matt Courtman is planning to return with Mike Collins and inviting any skeptics/critics of Mike’s work to come on board with their questions/concerns, especially in regards to Mike’s o-o-old “fly under” video which was extensively discussed in last week’s Monday Zoom.

There are several reasons (I believe) why that video, and other of Mike’s work, has never gained much traction, but this is a chance for skeptics to weigh in — I would encourage them to do so, despite their likely fear of how quickly any discussion will deteriorate, but I think Matt is trying to be an honest broker in opening the platform to competing views (while granted he has definite positive view). The invitation comes at the end of this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1rnK24F7RY

I’d especially encourage those who have followed Mike’s claims for years (actually, well over a decade) and are already very familiar with his arguments and videos to engage… but certainly those who only more recently learned of his work can join in as well.

You can check Matt’s FB site here:

https://www.facebook.com/MissionIvorybill  

OR, this FB page will have a Zoom link on Monday:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368

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-- Holiday Shopping --

 ———————————————————————

Given the delays in mail and shipping this year, it’s almost getting too late for Xmas shopping (or Festivus, as the case may be), but if you are still looking for something for that beloved Ivory-bill addict (including yourself) here’s a couple of nice T-shirts (I have no connection to either product):

https://www.redbubble.com/i/t-shirt/Audubon-s-Ivory-Billed-Woodpeckers-by-nefaeryous/18126986.1YYVU

https://www.amazon.com/Ivory-Billed-Woodpecker-America-T-Shirt/dp/B07N7Z9H5M?customId=B07537TZ66&th=1

There are plenty of other choices at places like Cafepress and Zazzle, as well as at Amazon. And of course Ivory-bill books, mugs, prints, artwork, trinkets etc.etc. can be found as well.

Merry shopping….

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— Intermission —

 ———————————————————

Not for everybody, but while biding time, just a 6-year-old essay on mathematics here:

https://jornbettin.com/2015/04/01/the-antidote-to-misuse-of-mathematics-and-junk-data/

…and then utterly changing the subject and mood, here’s Terry Gross interviewing Mel Brooks this week on "Fresh Air":

https://www.npr.org/2021/12/07/1061836388/mel-brooks-all-about-me

...finally, so as not to drop a post entirely devoid of IBWO references, here's Connecticut woodcarver Keith Mueller on Facebook showing off some of his recent gorgeous work:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/4857237337630991/

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-- Streamlining --

—————————————————————————

For the last 2 years I’ve wanted to update/streamline the cluttered left-hand column of the blog, but with interest lagging in this whole topic lacked the energy to do so. Interest has perked up slightly since the USFWS announcement so finally found the time this weekend to eliminate a lot of links (especially dead ones). If any of the ones I’ve scratched prove particularly useful in months to come I’ll reinstate. Especially sorry to remove the IBWO Researchers Forum which seems to now be defunct (if someone knows otherwise let me know; they have suffered long downtimes previously, but this one seems permanent?).

I have added the British BirdForum.net site, since if there is any significant IBWO news to come it will likely be well-covered and debated at that forum, which probably had the most significant, wide-ranging (not always pleasant) debate of any site, early-on, over the evidence Cornell originally brought to light (indeed, if I remember correctly, it was some of the vitriol at that site that led to IBWO Researchers Forum being formed!).

I've also added one two of the Ivory-bill Facebook sites which tend to be somewhat active (though, like many, I despise Facebook!... but one can't avoid it these days, and it is effective at spreading ideas/news, even if much of it needs to be taken with a grain of salt).

—————————————————————————

-- Waiting Game --

 -----------------------------------------------------------

Am getting a small assortment of inquiries lately that I don’t have the time or energy to reply to in detail, so will simply respond to in a general way:

1)  No, I don't expect the USFWS to alter their recommendation to de-list the IBWO, though it is possible they'll postpone a decision long enough that perhaps fresh, persuasive evidence will come to light (though I’m not expecting anything significant soon). USFWS is likely very aware of most all the prevailing evidence from the last decade+ (not to mention the century prior), none of which will likely sway their opinion... but, hey, I've been surprised before, and always a slim chance that sheer public pressure, and not conservation issues, might cause them to alter their stance.

  

2)  People are sending me various articles, links, news stories, etc., because so much IBWO-related material has arisen lately (that I don’t report on). These are almost always things I’m aware of, but don’t post about because the content is either old, redundant, or simply weak.

Folks can continue sending things in (I’d still rather have 10 people send me something I already know about, than miss out on something that might be new to me); just know that if I don’t use something you send in, it doesn’t mean I didn’t receive or appreciate the email, but it simply didn’t pass a certain threshold of significance. But yeah, lots of nice retrospective articles out there.

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-- Of Anecdotes and Places --

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Am always a bit hesitant to pass along anecdotes these days (just because  anecdotes from non-birders are so many and so rarely credible), but with little else to report will cite this recent Georgia one from Rob Tymstra over at the main Facebook Ivory-bill forum, in part because it reminds me of an old story I posted here almost 10 years ago:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/4827523787269013/

…and my post, regarding Georgia, from 2012:

https://ivorybills.blogspot.com/2012/02/and-back-to-georgia.html

At the time I was wondering (as I still do) if parts of Georgia deserved more search attention than they were getting when compared to states like Florida and Louisiana, or even South Carolina and Texas. An even far odder locale I’ve pondered about, principally because of some of Bill Pulliam’s old postings, is western Tennessee.

An old bromide essentially says it’s silly to keep doing the same thing over and over again and expect a different result… yet we keep concentrating IBWO searches in the same areas repeatedly over decades without definitive documentation (though based upon some evidence, and the sheer size of such locales)… but if the birds, which are powerful flyers, have moved on, it’s difficult to say just which lesser-explored areas deserve more attention than they’ve ever received… another reason the USFWS wish to declare ‘extinction’ seems premature.

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ADDENDUM 11/30/21:

The deadline for comments to the USFWS on its recommendation to de-list the Ivory-billed Woodpecker has now passed, with ~200 ~100 comments sent in (I assume these are mostly opposed to de-listing, but did not read all of them, so don’t know if any were actually posted in support of the ‘extinction’ designation). I doubt the Agency will be swayed, though I suspect there is dissension in USFWS over what action to take, so just perhaps minds will be changed or an extension will be given before a final decision is made.

Bobby Harrison was among the last to comment, and claims a 10-second video almost 14 months old showing an Ivory-bill in flight at an undisclosed location — seems likely if it was of any quality it would’ve (and should’ve) come to light long before now!…. indeed, I worry a bit that it will simply further exasperate officials as more of the same ol' same ol' brief, grainy, unconvincing frames; i.e. THIS is the best believers can ever come up with (yaaaawn). Harrison’s full comment to the Agency (where he hopes to present the video) can be downloaded from here:

https://www.regulations.gov/comment/FWS-R4-ES-2020-0109-0061

(...the film clip may be made public after being viewed by USFWS)

No idea how soon USFWS expects to make their final decision (I assume months away), but again probably not worth getting hopes up unless some truly better evidence arises this winter season. Luckily, searches will continue no matter what decision is made.

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-- Collins Is Courtman's Next Guest --

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Mike Collins is set to be Matt Courtman's next guest on his Ivorybill podcast series, this coming Monday evening at 8pm EST via Zoom:

https://www.facebook.com/events/421008052855134

Monday also marks the end of the USFWS comment period for their recommendation to delist the Ivorybill, so just perhaps some FWS representatives will be on-hand to give a listen.

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-- Winter Approaches --

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Approaching winter when the leaves will be gone from the trees making for better IBWO searching, with a new breeding season beginning early next year …but then, hahh, I’ve probably been saying all that for the last 15 years :((

Again, plenty of review and historical/speculative banter continuing around the IBWO for now (and could easily continue for another 10-15 years), but little really new claims so I suspect USFWS will go ahead with its “extinction” recommendation by year's end (despite internal debates, and hey, maybe they’ll surprise me). All the arguments are pretty well-known by now, and pretty well-worn... one suspects that some in key positions at USFWS just aren’t buying it. Whatever credibility the agency loses by NOT declaring the IBWO extinct will be far surpassed by the egg-on-their-face, if they declare extinction, only to have the iconic species then re-appear; a bit of a roll of the dice for them. Que sera sera.

Louisiana’s Matt Courtman continues to do Monday night (8pm EST) Zoom meetings on IBWO topics. The last one I see uploaded to YouTube is here (a more recent one isn’t up yet, but probably soon):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ly6chrq0B_Y

Update: the more recent one is now up here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvfeJ6gQ6-M

(…or follow his “Louisiana Wilds” Facebook page for updates from him, if you're not already:

https://www.facebook.com/TheLouisianaWilds

Again, remember the comment period to USFWS is open 'til Nov. 29, here:

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/09/30/2021-21219/endangered-and-threatened-wildlife-and-plants-removal-of-23-extinct-species-from-the-lists-of#open-comment

...AND, the actual USFWS "5-year review" of the IBWO case upon which the decision to 'declare extinct' is based, is here, if you wish to read it (H/T to Matt Courtman):

https://ecos.fws.gov/docs/tess/species_nonpublish/2710.pdf?fbclid=IwAR379d-fazxjEmUSbh8usFqPJeZS6dX80VoVuFlHhqY9eCQLqAY1GyyXIS8

...and in case I don't have occasion to post again before Thanksgiving, a Happy Holiday to all.

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-- A Stellar Find --

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“Unfortunately, nature is very much a now-you-see-it, now-you-don't affair. A fish flashes, then dissolves in the water before my eyes like so much salt. Deer apparently ascend bodily into heaven; the brightest oriole fades into leaves.”  — Annie Dillard

I usually try to keep away from these stories of rare or unusual bird sightings (there are many each year) as having any great relevance to the Ivory-bill saga, but this one involving a large, stunning bird showing up out-of-the-blue and out-of-place is just too remarkable to pass up, reverberating again with how little we know about individual bird behavior.

For those who haven’t heard, a magnificent, vagrant Steller’s Eagle (larger, and just as striking as our American Bald Eagle) has shown up in Canada  thousands of miles from its Asian home territory. It’s been moving around quite a bit; perhaps it will show up on our eastern seaboard! As Nate Swick of ABA simply says, “It’s nuts. It really is. It’s one of those head-scratching things” to find this bird here in N. America at all. Others call it “mind-boggling” and “a one in a million shot.” 

Once, when a very unusual hummingbird showed up in my state, completely out-of-place, I surmised it accidentally hitched a ride in the back of a transport vehicle perhaps hauling tropical plants from a source 1000+ miles away, as I refused to believe it flew here under its own power... but that sort of 'accidental' ride scenario (or any other) is far less conceivable for the appearance of this waaay-lost raptor.

Anyway, read all about it (because, yes, mind-boggling things do happen on occasion, and nature is full of surprises):

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/science/stellers-sea-eagle.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimesscience

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/steller-s-sea-eagle-nova-scotia-rare-bird-sighting-1.6237014

ADDENDUM 11/16:

Hahh! not IBWO-related, but kinda funny after me mentioning the possibility of stowaway birds, today this story appears of a Roadrunner from Las Vegas hitching a ride to Maine (strange things happen in the world of birds):

https://www.npr.org/2021/11/16/1056191659/roadrunner-stowaway-moving-van-las-vegas-maine

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-- In Time For Halloween: The Haunting ;) --

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People talk a lot about how politically polarized the country is these days… though perhaps it’s actually always been polarized and modern-day digital media have simply exacerbated and shone a bright light on the divisions.  Anyway, the polarization is interestingly reflected in the Ivory-bill debate as well, as over time, both sides have dug in their heels perhaps even more so. In lieu of the recent USFWS pronouncement, long-time IBWO proponents, especially those who have some vested interest (because of their prior efforts, vocal arguments, reputation, etc.) in the debate, have possibly hardened their stands and are campaigning for a reversal of the USFWS recommendation, while scoffers may be losing all patience. With that said, there are some skeptics who admit they would love to be proved wrong, love to see the IBWO documented, but just find scant little solid evidence for any optimism. And vice-versa there are a few former believers, who by now have surrendered most hope, and must wonder if the species even actually ever made it through the 1940s bottleneck. There are also many, who like myself, still think a few remnants do exist, but wholly doubt the species can be saved even if found and protected. Maybe we’d have them around another 10 - 25 years, but short of some sort of massive and uncertain cloning project, then what?

Anyway, despite my gut instinct that a few stragglers still fly, there is one element that has always haunted me a bit in this saga. For those who have followed the story since the official Big Woods search went public, you may well recall the leucistic (largely white) Pileated that was spotted, and photographed, early on (you can google “Pileated Woodpecker +leucistic” if you need to see examples). The ghostly, heavily-white bird caught on film could hardly be mistaken for an IBWO, but it always made me nervous to wonder what the offspring and siblings of that bird might’ve looked like (and for that matter the offspring of its offspring, etc…) — leucism comes in a variety of degrees and forms; might not a more partially-leucistic Pileated (or even a crow), in a brief look (and almost all IBWO sightings are brief), lend the appearance of an Ivory-bill? (indeed, ornithologist Noel Snyder once reported just such a specimen in Florida). Several other varyingly leucistic PIWOs popped up on the Web, BTW, in the months after the Arkansas Big Woods encounter.  Of course leucistic birds are relatively rare… but, of course IBWO sighting-claims are themselves very rare. What percentage of the best sightings are just leucistic birds of other species?

Again, what we need are prolonged, clear-cut sightings/video from credible, knowledgeable observers.

p.s.... Matt Courtman spoke with believer Geoff Hill for well over an hour on his IBWO podcast last Mon. night and will probably have a link to it at some point (...I'll post link here when I see it). And he'll likely have another guest next Monday.

(Hill) link here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KR4AiUij6g

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