Thursday, April 29, 2010

-- Project Coyote Update --

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Mark Michaels has a new update from the "Project Coyote" group in Louisiana, which focuses on IBWO anatomy (with links to several papers) as an aid to recognizing their foraging sign:

http://www.south-run.com/coyote/updates.htm

I'm not sure that the discussion (primarily of IBWO footing and stance) will result in a clearer indication of IBWO foraging sign than we already have. Much work has already previously gone into trying to relate IBWO bill size and shape to their foraging sign (which seems logical), but without much success in distinguishing their sign from that of others. And scaling and peeling of bark can also result from critters (and natural forces) other than woodpeckers, so it's not singly a matter of distinguishing IBWO from PIWO. I'm just not sure that focusing on other attributes will lead to clear distinctions, but will wait to see where the discussion eventually leads. (I believe, if not mistaken, that Cornell had a system for rating foraging sign for IBWO probability, just as they did with cavities; it would be useful to know their criteria, if they had such).

Mark also mentions that further (inconclusive) camera-trap images and audio examples may be posted at their site in the future.

I've had a post on Cornell waiting in the wings for awhile, and also a post on why bird counts are scientific crap (and scientific crap can be very useful! ;-)) so maybe one of those for tomorrow... or not.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010

-- Nutshell --

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On-the-one-hand, probably no bird in history has had so many sighting claims (even eliminating all the least plausible/credible ones) and still been thought extinct by so many people, as has the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. On-the-other-hand, it's likely that no extant bird species has ever before been the subject of so much time and energy and yet failed to be definitively confirmed. That, in a nutshell, I think are the two competing views that cannot be easily conjoined here.


One side sees the sheer volume of repeated IBWO claims (and associated evidence) as hugely difficult to just explain away, especially by simple, ad hoc proclamation of "mistakes" regarding a bird that is nearly unmistakable. They picture a wary, cavity-dwelling bird, fast in flight, thin in numbers, spread out among vast habitat, with essentially, bumbling ill-able humans in not-so-hot pursuit.
The other side finds repeated failed follow-ups (often within 48 hours) to sightings over and over and over again for decades, to be the part that is almost impossible to account for --- how could such a large forest creature traverse known locales and escape solid detection for so long by experienced, skilled humans? ...Two stances, looking at the same circumstances, but with conclusions irreconcilably in stark contrast.

Yeah, I'm oversimplifying a bit, but not by much. The longer searches go on, the more the skeptic case is slowly bolstered, and the thinner the tightrope that optimists must walk to account for the facts at-hand --- simultaneously, explaining the scarcity of the bird and sightings, yet allowing for continuous active breeding for 6+ decades --- it can all be explained, it just gets harder with each passing year.

And while human inability to get an adequate photo is comprehensible, I remain troubled by matters I've referenced before:

1. Lack of a photo from ACONE cameras at Bayou de View -- these were the "intelligent" automatic cameras that were placed to continuously film a logical flyway for Ivory-bills in the Big Woods, that only snapped shots of birds fitting a software algorithm which described an Ivory-bill in flight. While the technology was very advanced, the idea was beautifully simple: no humans needed, just set the cameras in an open flyway that IBWOs were likely to cross, given other evidence from the Big Woods, and wait for it to snap a picture of the wanted bird. The system was down a great deal and had various mechanical problems, but also, as intended, took a great many pics... just none (identifiable) of IBWOs. I've never heard an adequate explanation of what in total it did collect, or how much of the time it was down, or any sort of clear explanation for why it failed to capture the bird on film in a locale the bird was expected to be.

2. Lack of a photo from automatic cameras placed at promising foraging sites or cavities --- even with all the failures, problems, and poor quality of automatic cameras, the fact is these cameras DID capture recognizable Pileateds, flickers, mockingbirds, mammals, etc. etc. on film... just no IBWOs. Either IBWO's weren't in those areas or researchers truly lack any insight to select out active IBWO foraging sign and cavities from others. Are we this incompetent?... possibly.

Further, on a 5-year project, I'd expect information gathered in the first two years to translate to refined, more focused efforts in the 3rd, and then a more focused search in the 4th etc. etc. I'd expect more sightings, sounds, foraging signs as time proceeded... but such has not transpired. Instead there seems a remarkable lack of progress to this story... a lack of progress, and an equally remarkable lack of consensus of what it all means.

"Cotinis" fairly asks over at another site, 'where are we headed from here?'... are we to conclude yet AGAIN that the IBWO may be in any of a dozen or more places, ohhh, but BTW it's kinda hard to find? Is that what 5 years and $10 million will bring us as a scientific conclusion? Something is amiss. Despite it all, I still believe probabilities (yes, based on sightings) broadly favor the persistence of this species, but for that to be so, something must be very amiss with the science employed.
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Tuesday, April 27, 2010

-- FWIW --


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I've been scanning over the various IBWO claims that people have sent me over the last 5 years, that haven't really been in the press/internet. A lot of them of course have little substantive detail, and the vast majority of those that do come from well-known, previously-rumored areas, the Apalachicola/Chipola, Big Thicket, Congaree/Santee, etc. But there are a tiny few leftover reports, that have just enough detail to be intriguing, and not enough detail to totally rule out, other than their unusual/unlikely locations in some cases. I'll just mention the general locales involved in case anyone should wish to look into the areas further; nothing to lose at this point (and most of these claims BTW, are not particularly recent, generally being from 5 to over 15 years ago):

a. southeast of Heflin, Alabama (Cleburne County, AL.)

b. north of Wright City, Missouri (Warren County, MO.)

c. near the Savannah River/Broad River Basin in either Elbert or Wilkes County, Georgia.

d. near the Deep River in Moore County, North Carolina, and similarly near Siler City and Deep River in Chatham County, N. Carolina.

I throw these out, for what it's worth, simply in the event that someone is near them and wants to explore the possibilities in a place that few may have spent much time looking, but I don't want to exaggerate what the likelihood is.
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Sunday, April 25, 2010

-- "Probability Can Bite" --

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A digression down the road of intuition and probability:

http://www.maa.org/devlin/devlin_04_10.html

Addendum: by sheer coincidence (no, we didn't plan it) Bill Pulliam also did a post today dealing with probabilities, and both of us are essentially intimating the same underlying point; i.e. that people's perception of probability is often mathematically fallacious. My link touches on the point in a very general way; Bill much more specifically tries to apply the notion to the IBWO situation:

http://bbill.blogspot.com/2010/04/schroedingers-woodpecker.html
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-- More of Same --

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Report from another recent Big Woods searcher HERE.
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Saturday, April 24, 2010

-- Of Final Reports and Ghost Birds --

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Presumably, living Ivory-billed Woodpeckers traverse about and forage everyday, 365 days a year, week-after-week, year-after-year, decade-after-decade. And at some point during those daily jaunts they likely vocalize with 'kents' and double-knocks that have some carrying capacity through the forest. I've said before that while the lack of a clear photo/video after a 5-year effort isn't overly taxing, the lack of a marked increase in sightings, foraging signs, and auditory encounters with more and more searchers out-and-about in more and more fields over a 5-year period, is troublesome, and difficult to explain IF searchers are in the right places. With that said....

Two of Cornell's recent posted reports are early summaries from the Arkansas Big Woods, but since searching continued in Arkansas I'd prefer to wait for a final wrap-up before concluding much from the Big Woods in general. On-the-other-hand, the posted Louisiana and Florida "final" reports (essentially from Cornell's Mobile Search teams) are more interesting in that there may be no further significant data coming (from Cornell) for the specific locales addressed, and some very important areas are covered: in Louisiana, the central and northern Atchafalaya Basin, Lake Maurepas, and the Pearl River WMA are reported on, and in Florida the Fakahatchee Strand. And the bottom-line, take-home message seems to be that no sightings nor signs of any significance for the presence of Ivory-bills was found in any of these habitats (nor any response to artificial double-knocks played). Cornell always cautions (and rightly so) that they have not done an exhaustive search of these regions, and some suitable habitat certainly does exist therein, but still the implication seems clear that they find little basis for holding out great hope of Ivory-bills residing in any of these often highly-touted areas, even though they add the following about south Florida:
..."south Florida contains a remarkably large contiguous area of protected lands that has scattered areas of forest suitable for Ivory-billed Woodpeckers, including pine forests, mangrove forests, bald cypress stands, and subtropical hardwood strands and hammocks. It is the largest block of protected areas in the historical range of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker and has received too little survey effort for the species. "
and also this:
"...we cannot rule out the continued existence of a few Ivory-billed Woodpeckers in south Florida. If any birds remain in south Florida, the Fakahatchee Strand is a likely area to attract Ivory-billed Woodpeckers because it is the largest tract of tall forest in south Florida,with a suitable mix of hardwood and cypress forests and large royal palms mixed in. "
(Moreover, they recommend the use of Automatic Recording Units as a means of monitoring the more remote areas of interest in the event the need arises.) But the above are a few hopeful sentences couched within a primarily pessimistic report.
I've said for some time now, we probably need to begin setting aside from consideration many of the multitude of areas that have been touted for 60+ years for IBWO potential, and then see what remains. Perhaps we are finally, slowly on the way to doing that. Even though these reports only cover a few of the areas to be considered, they are some very key areas --- the Atchafalaya is often historically cited as one of THE most promising of all habitats; the Fakahatchee I believe was a key area of interest for Jerry Jackson (and others), and of course the Pearl is given quite a different take currently by Mike Collins (Cornell actually notes that the density of woodpeckers in general in the Pearl is much reduced since Hurricane Katrina.)

My sense from the reports, once again, is that these constitute areas that IBWOs might conceivably stray into on occasion, and future credible claims ought certainly be followed up on, BUT the likelihood of resident, ongoing populations of the species therein is EXCEEDINGLY slim; i.e. better to look elsewhere. Hopefully, future summary reports will cast doubt on other areas as well from major focus.
There are limited, even though several, plausible locales left for Ivory-bills; if they persist at all they must be residing/breeding in 1 or more of them, not merely hopscotching around willy-nilly from place A to place B; my interest in stray, dispersing birds is waning; we need to find a pair on a territory, that can be re-found (not because they are easy to see, but because they should be repeatedly audible and then locatable, although this will be very difficult for lone searchers)... anything else seems indeed, to be a ghost bird.
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Friday, April 23, 2010

-- Back To Nestcams --

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For folks' weekend interest, while I'm playing around with different posts that may or may not ever see the light-of-day, I'll just again refer viewers to several of the beguiling Ustream nestcams currently running... 3 linked to in left-hand column under "Other" (including the unsurpassed 'Molly and McGee' Barn Owl site), and others linked to in this previous post (where I keep adding a few on):

http://ivorybills.blogspot.com/2010/04/in-spring.html

(And there are a great many additional nestcams across the Web as well.)

....just don't watch while driving!
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Thursday, April 22, 2010

-- "For The Birds" Film Series --

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If you happen to be in NY City the week of April 28 -- May 5, you oughta try to take in some of the "For the Birds" film anthology. Nice line-up (2 films per night), including Crocker's "Ghost Bird" along with some major and indie classics:

http://tinyurl.com/yya5yrz
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Wednesday, April 21, 2010

-- Cornell Summaries --

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Cornell has posted a brief summary statement at their Ivory-bill homepage here:

http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory

with links in the left-hand column to further info --- the top link, "Final Reports" does bring up summary reports (pdfs for download) for certain searched areas in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Florida. I haven't had a chance to read through them yet, but assume they will offer much more of the detail that has been sorely lacking in their previous online material. I hope they might in time be posting summary reports for other areas (in South Carolina and Mississippi particularly, but others as well), but don't know what their plan is.

Final Reports: http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory/folder.2010-04-20.2993097079/

May have more to say about the reports later as I make my way through them, or about Cornell more generally in a later post.

And for those emailing me (you can stop) about Mike Collins' press release, yes, I'm aware of it... and I'll comment on it or link to it, if-or-when I feel news warrants it.
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Tuesday, April 20, 2010

-- Geoff Hill Interview --

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Online interview with Auburn's Geoff Hill from Birder's World magazine here:

http://tinyurl.com/y84yfdl

Mostly covering his new volume for National Geographic on bird coloration (his academic specialty, and interesting stuff in its own right), but at the end they do review the Ivory-bill scene, including this:
"...the whole thing is going to change overnight as soon as we get a clear picture of these birds...
The thing is, if we’re wrong about this, it’s already being forgotten, it’ll fade away and be a footnote in history, but if we get a picture of one of these birds — definitive, you know, there’s no doubt — everybody’s going to have to rethink all of this certain skepticism.
Everyone who thought for sure it was extinct is going to wonder, How crazy is it that this bird could avoid detection all these decades? It’s going to be a really interesting thing. It’ll be humbling in a way because we’ll see that we don’t quite have dominion over nature like we thought. "
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Sunday, April 18, 2010

-- Sunday Entertainment --

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Can't remember if I've used this clip here before or not:



[ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jiq6V0Shs_s ]

...And in a li'l bird news, nice story of a blue stork in Germany:

http://www.burdr.com/2010/04/blue-stork/

...OR, if you've truly nothing worthwhile to do, you can visit more of Whole Truth's saucy, scintillating, self-absorbed insights at his blog here:

http://dpreviewsucks.blogspot.com/
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Saturday, April 17, 2010

-- 'nuther "Ghost Bird" Review --

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Corey at "10000 Birds" blog has a review of Scott Crocker's award-winning "Ghost Bird" independent film today:

http://10000birds.com/review-of-ghost-bird.htm
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Friday, April 16, 2010

-- Truthiness --

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Heading into the weekend, somehow it seems appropriate:

http://tinyurl.com/3r35sn

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Thursday, April 15, 2010

-- Rohrbaugh Comments --

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Hardly necessary, but another press notice that, barring future leads providing more impetus, Cornell's search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker is officially suspended without definitive evidence for the species:

http://news.discovery.com/animals/ivory-billed-woodpecker-search-ends.html

Cornell's Rohrbaugh of course defends the effort made and conclusions reached, (and I do too --- I just find almost indefensible their communication to the public of that effort), and continues to say a text will be published next year summarizing all the data... I'll believe that when I see it.
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Wednesday, April 14, 2010

-- In The Spring.... --

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For Yours Entertainment:


Nestcams seem to be all the rage these days (and they've improved tremendously in the last few years). Here are some additional real-time Ustream cams, similar to the 3 I've linked to over in left-hand column, under "Other" (caution: they eat up a lot of bandwidth, and can be quite addictive, so visit at your own peril!):

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/california-hummingbird (hummingbird)

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/eagle-cam (Bald Eagles)

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/ospreycam (Ospreys)

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/bri-ospreycam (Ospreys)

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/stork-family-live (storks in Spain)

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mercury-education (Peregrine Falcons)

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/the-franklin-institute-haw-cam (Red-tailed Hawks)

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nicasio-owl (Barn Owls)

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/owlivia (Barn Owls)

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/Screech-Owl-Cam---Austin (Screech Owl)
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Tuesday, April 13, 2010

-- "Extensively" ? --

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Following the 5-year effort, Cornell has concluded that "it is unlikely that ivory-bills still exist in the areas that were extensively searched," which suits me fine, but I wish they would elaborate on what areas they consider "extensively searched." No doubt parts of the Big Woods and Choctawhatchee are involved and I suspect sections of the Congaree as well, but exactly which parts, and which if any parts might need further study? And what about the Big Thicket, the Atchafalaya, Pascagoula... are any of these to be regarded as "extensively searched" by now? Are any of the locales visited by their 'Mobile Team' deemed "extensively searched"? Again, the Big Woods and Choctaw. were never really part of the dozen or more major sites with Ivory-bill rumors from the 50's through the 90's (yet that is where the main manpower and energy was expended in the last several years). What sites should still be under consideration, including those only newly-given attention in more recent times? Or have Cornell officials thrown in the towel on the IBWO, just without saying it out loud or in public....
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Monday, April 12, 2010

-- Cantor's Whole Truth --

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Again, I digress....

As long as I'm re-running some old posts, here's one from the past that the math-squeamish should probably just skip:




[ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WihXin5Oxq8&feature=related ]
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Sunday, April 11, 2010

-- Intermission --

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Just re-running one of my favorite past 'intermission' posts this Sunday for all those who still dream of flying:
(don't try this at home children...)



[ http://tinyurl.com/y8jv2z8 ]
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