-- FWIW --

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I've been scanning over the various IBWO claims that people have sent me over the last 5 years, that haven't really been in the press/internet. A lot of them of course have little substantive detail, and the vast majority of those that do come from well-known, previously-rumored areas, the Apalachicola/Chipola, Big Thicket, Congaree/Santee, etc. But there are a tiny few leftover reports, that have just enough detail to be intriguing, and not enough detail to totally rule out, other than their unusual/unlikely locations in some cases. I'll just mention the general locales involved in case anyone should wish to look into the areas further; nothing to lose at this point (and most of these claims BTW, are not particularly recent, generally being from 5 to over 15 years ago):

a. southeast of Heflin, Alabama (Cleburne County, AL.)

b. north of Wright City, Missouri (Warren County, MO.)

c. near the Savannah River/Broad River Basin in either Elbert or Wilkes County, Georgia.

d. near the Deep River in Moore County, North Carolina, and similarly near Siler City and Deep River in Chatham County, N. Carolina.

I throw these out, for what it's worth, simply in the event that someone is near them and wants to explore the possibilities in a place that few may have spent much time looking, but I don't want to exaggerate what the likelihood is.
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-- "Probability Can Bite" --

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A digression down the road of intuition and probability:

http://www.maa.org/devlin/devlin_04_10.html

Addendum: by sheer coincidence (no, we didn't plan it) Bill Pulliam also did a post today dealing with probabilities, and both of us are essentially intimating the same underlying point; i.e. that people's perception of probability is often mathematically fallacious. My link touches on the point in a very general way; Bill much more specifically tries to apply the notion to the IBWO situation:

http://bbill.blogspot.com/2010/04/schroedingers-woodpecker.html
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-- More of Same --

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Report from another recent Big Woods searcher HERE.
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-- Of Final Reports and Ghost Birds --

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Presumably, living Ivory-billed Woodpeckers traverse about and forage everyday, 365 days a year, week-after-week, year-after-year, decade-after-decade. And at some point during those daily jaunts they likely vocalize with 'kents' and double-knocks that have some carrying capacity through the forest. I've said before that while the lack of a clear photo/video after a 5-year effort isn't overly taxing, the lack of a marked increase in sightings, foraging signs, and auditory encounters with more and more searchers out-and-about in more and more fields over a 5-year period, is troublesome, and difficult to explain IF searchers are in the right places. With that said....

Two of Cornell's recent posted reports are early summaries from the Arkansas Big Woods, but since searching continued in Arkansas I'd prefer to wait for a final wrap-up before concluding much from the Big Woods in general. On-the-other-hand, the posted Louisiana and Florida "final" reports (essentially from Cornell's Mobile Search teams) are more interesting in that there may be no further significant data coming (from Cornell) for the specific locales addressed, and some very important areas are covered: in Louisiana, the central and northern Atchafalaya Basin, Lake Maurepas, and the Pearl River WMA are reported on, and in Florida the Fakahatchee Strand. And the bottom-line, take-home message seems to be that no sightings nor signs of any significance for the presence of Ivory-bills was found in any of these habitats (nor any response to artificial double-knocks played). Cornell always cautions (and rightly so) that they have not done an exhaustive search of these regions, and some suitable habitat certainly does exist therein, but still the implication seems clear that they find little basis for holding out great hope of Ivory-bills residing in any of these often highly-touted areas, even though they add the following about south Florida:

..."south Florida contains a remarkably large contiguous area of protected lands that has scattered areas of forest suitable for Ivory-billed Woodpeckers, including pine forests, mangrove forests, bald cypress stands, and subtropical hardwood strands and hammocks. It is the largest block of protected areas in the historical range of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker and has received too little survey effort for the species. "

and also this:

"...we cannot rule out the continued existence of a few Ivory-billed Woodpeckers in south Florida. If any birds remain in south Florida, the Fakahatchee Strand is a likely area to attract Ivory-billed Woodpeckers because it is the largest tract of tall forest in south Florida,with a suitable mix of hardwood and cypress forests and large royal palms mixed in. "

(Moreover, they recommend the use of Automatic Recording Units as a means of monitoring the more remote areas of interest in the event the need arises.) But the above are a few hopeful sentences couched within a primarily pessimistic report.
I've said for some time now, we probably need to begin setting aside from consideration many of the multitude of areas that have been touted for 60+ years for IBWO potential, and then see what remains. Perhaps we are finally, slowly on the way to doing that. Even though these reports only cover a few of the areas to be considered, they are some very key areas --- the Atchafalaya is often historically cited as one of THE most promising of all habitats; the Fakahatchee I believe was a key area of interest for Jerry Jackson (and others), and of course the Pearl is given quite a different take currently by Mike Collins (Cornell actually notes that the density of woodpeckers in general in the Pearl is much reduced since Hurricane Katrina.)

My sense from the reports, once again, is that these constitute areas that IBWOs might conceivably stray into on occasion, and future credible claims ought certainly be followed up on, BUT the likelihood of resident, ongoing populations of the species therein is EXCEEDINGLY slim; i.e. better to look elsewhere. Hopefully, future summary reports will cast doubt on other areas as well from major focus.
There are limited, even though several, plausible locales left for Ivory-bills; if they persist at all they must be residing/breeding in 1 or more of them, not merely hopscotching around willy-nilly from place A to place B; my interest in stray, dispersing birds is waning; we need to find a pair on a territory, that can be re-found (not because they are easy to see, but because they should be repeatedly audible and then locatable, although this will be very difficult for lone searchers)... anything else seems indeed, to be a ghost bird.
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-- Back To Nestcams --

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For folks' weekend interest, while I'm playing around with different posts that may or may not ever see the light-of-day, I'll just again refer viewers to several of the beguiling Ustream nestcams currently running... 3 linked to in left-hand column under "Other" (including the unsurpassed 'Molly and McGee' Barn Owl site), and others linked to in this previous post (where I keep adding a few on):

http://ivorybills.blogspot.com/2010/04/in-spring.html

(And there are a great many additional nestcams across the Web as well.)

....just don't watch while driving!
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-- "For The Birds" Film Series --

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If you happen to be in NY City the week of April 28 -- May 5, you oughta try to take in some of the "For the Birds" film anthology. Nice line-up (2 films per night), including Crocker's "Ghost Bird" along with some major and indie classics:

http://tinyurl.com/yya5yrz
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-- Cornell Summaries --

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Cornell has posted a brief summary statement at their Ivory-bill homepage here:

http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory

with links in the left-hand column to further info --- the top link, "Final Reports" does bring up summary reports (pdfs for download) for certain searched areas in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Florida. I haven't had a chance to read through them yet, but assume they will offer much more of the detail that has been sorely lacking in their previous online material. I hope they might in time be posting summary reports for other areas (in South Carolina and Mississippi particularly, but others as well), but don't know what their plan is.

Final Reports: http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory/folder.2010-04-20.2993097079/

May have more to say about the reports later as I make my way through them, or about Cornell more generally in a later post.

And for those emailing me (you can stop) about Mike Collins' press release, yes, I'm aware of it... and I'll comment on it or link to it, if-or-when I feel news warrants it.
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-- Geoff Hill Interview --

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Online interview with Auburn's Geoff Hill from Birder's World magazine here:

http://tinyurl.com/y84yfdl

Mostly covering his new volume for National Geographic on bird coloration (his academic specialty, and interesting stuff in its own right), but at the end they do review the Ivory-bill scene, including this:

"...the whole thing is going to change overnight as soon as we get a clear picture of these birds...
The thing is, if we’re wrong about this, it’s already being forgotten, it’ll fade away and be a footnote in history, but if we get a picture of one of these birds — definitive, you know, there’s no doubt — everybody’s going to have to rethink all of this certain skepticism.
Everyone who thought for sure it was extinct is going to wonder, How crazy is it that this bird could avoid detection all these decades? It’s going to be a really interesting thing. It’ll be humbling in a way because we’ll see that we don’t quite have dominion over nature like we thought. "

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-- Sunday Entertainment --

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Can't remember if I've used this clip here before or not:



[ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jiq6V0Shs_s ]

...And in a li'l bird news, nice story of a blue stork in Germany:

http://www.burdr.com/2010/04/blue-stork/

...OR, if you've truly nothing worthwhile to do, you can visit more of Whole Truth's saucy, scintillating, self-absorbed insights at his blog here:

http://dpreviewsucks.blogspot.com/
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-- 'nuther "Ghost Bird" Review --

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Corey at "10000 Birds" blog has a review of Scott Crocker's award-winning "Ghost Bird" independent film today:

http://10000birds.com/review-of-ghost-bird.htm
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-- Truthiness --

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Heading into the weekend, somehow it seems appropriate:

http://tinyurl.com/3r35sn

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-- Rohrbaugh Comments --

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Hardly necessary, but another press notice that, barring future leads providing more impetus, Cornell's search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker is officially suspended without definitive evidence for the species:

http://news.discovery.com/animals/ivory-billed-woodpecker-search-ends.html

Cornell's Rohrbaugh of course defends the effort made and conclusions reached, (and I do too --- I just find almost indefensible their communication to the public of that effort), and continues to say a text will be published next year summarizing all the data... I'll believe that when I see it.
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-- In The Spring.... --

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For Yours Entertainment:

Nestcams seem to be all the rage these days (and they've improved tremendously in the last few years). Here are some additional real-time Ustream cams, similar to the 3 I've linked to over in left-hand column, under "Other" (caution: they eat up a lot of bandwidth, and can be quite addictive, so visit at your own peril!):

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/california-hummingbird (hummingbird)

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/eagle-cam (Bald Eagles)

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/ospreycam (Ospreys)

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/bri-ospreycam (Ospreys)

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/stork-family-live (storks in Spain)

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mercury-education (Peregrine Falcons)

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/the-franklin-institute-haw-cam (Red-tailed Hawks)

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nicasio-owl (Barn Owls)

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/owlivia (Barn Owls)

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/Screech-Owl-Cam---Austin (Screech Owl)
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-- "Extensively" ? --

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Following the 5-year effort, Cornell has concluded that "it is unlikely that ivory-bills still exist in the areas that were extensively searched," which suits me fine, but I wish they would elaborate on what areas they consider "extensively searched." No doubt parts of the Big Woods and Choctawhatchee are involved and I suspect sections of the Congaree as well, but exactly which parts, and which if any parts might need further study? And what about the Big Thicket, the Atchafalaya, Pascagoula... are any of these to be regarded as "extensively searched" by now? Are any of the locales visited by their 'Mobile Team' deemed "extensively searched"? Again, the Big Woods and Choctaw. were never really part of the dozen or more major sites with Ivory-bill rumors from the 50's through the 90's (yet that is where the main manpower and energy was expended in the last several years). What sites should still be under consideration, including those only newly-given attention in more recent times? Or have Cornell officials thrown in the towel on the IBWO, just without saying it out loud or in public....
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-- Cantor's Whole Truth --

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Again, I digress....

As long as I'm re-running some old posts, here's one from the past that the math-squeamish should probably just skip:



[ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WihXin5Oxq8&feature=related ]
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-- Intermission --

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Just re-running one of my favorite past 'intermission' posts this Sunday for all those who still dream of flying:
(don't try this at home children...)



[ http://tinyurl.com/y8jv2z8 ]
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-- Talks Upcoming --

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If you're in the Knoxville, TN. area you may wish to attend a talk this coming Thurs. (4/15) at the Ijams Nature Center by artist/writer/naturalist Stephen Lyn Bales, about his upcoming book on James Tanner's Ivory-bill work:

http://stephenlynbales.blogspot.com/2010/04/ivory-bill-talk.html

And at the end of the month, Jerry Jackson is scheduled to give a woodpecker talk at the Buffalo Museum of Science on Wed., April 28:

http://tinyurl.com/ylmygdy
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-- Where Oh Where? --

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One question that arrives in my email off-and-on is why am I not more optimistic about chances for Ivory-bills in the Congaree, or South Carolina more generally (many consider it the best Ivory-bill habitat remaining anywhere)? Here's the problem: even taking ALL the suitable S.C. habitat together, it is a circumscribed, contained area (large, but self-contained). If IBWOs have been living/breeding there for the last 60+ years than either the young have been dispersing out (and there's essentially nowhere to go except possibly the coast of North Carolina (where there is a real paucity of sightings), or they would have to stay in that contained area, greatly increasing the density of IBWOs there over 60 years, such that one might now expect far more encounters. In short, if the species has not been successfully breeding there, then that population would be extinguished by now, and if they have been successfully breeding for 6 decades there ought be more sightings, as well as foraging signs of them, by now (that's my view). I find it difficult to have it both ways --- that they've been hiding out there in numbers adequate to stretch across 60 years and yet organized searches fail to better document them (granted there's always the possibility that they are breeding there, but only very poorly so).

The best way in my view to account for 60+ years of breeding, yet sparse sightings, is if the birds reside in pockets along lengthy corridors of habitat that they may traverse up or down at will, and especially including patches not searched that well in 60 years. And the two best such corridors are north-south along the Mississippi River and east-west along the Gulf Coast, in both instances stretching across multiple states. Even this would be a delicate dance for IBWOs to pull off, but it is made possible by the expanse and remoteness of suitable habitat, and the likely behavioral nature of a cavity-dwelling remnant species. Where along those extended corridors the highest-probability search sites reside is still the unanswered question, but again one may need to focus on tracts least combed-over in recent times, rather than areas that have had 60 years worth of attention.
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