-- Auburn Update --

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Geoff Hill's latest update from the Auburn effort in the Choctawhatchee region of the Florida Panhandle is up now HERE.

Needless to say, no luck during the '08-'09 season efforts which were largely based on the placement of newly-designed automatic cameras, which unfortunately continued to have a high (50%) failure rate (they are working on some tweaks that will hopefully improve that situation).

Dr. Hill reports at one point:

"In short, our experience over the past year indicates that ivorybills have moved out of the areas where we encountered them from 2005 to 2008. That’s as much as I can say with any confidence. There is no way to know whether the birds are in different areas in the Choctawhatchee Basin, different forests in the region, or dead."

And then adds more optimistically:

"I’m not pessimistic about the situation yet. We know almost nothing about the remnant population of ivorybills on the Florida panhandle. The few birds that were in the vicinities of Bruce Creek and Old Creek from 2005 to 2008 may simply be up or down the river (where we never venture) or in some beetle-killed stand of timber in the region. I have to assume that one of these months we will again detect them in the area that we monitor."

Hill will continue occasional scouting trips to the area and monitoring of automatic cameras, though his chief technician, Brian Rolek, has graduated and will be moving on. Hill reports he won't be posting any more updates at that particular website, but obviously if THE photo should arrive the news will be released to all.

Meanwhile, Mike Collins has commenced reporting for a new search season at the Pearl (La.) HERE.
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-- Tennessee cont'd. --

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While the silence is deafening on most fronts, Bill Pulliam continues relating his account of IBWO searching in western Tenn. with another installment here:

http://bbill.blogspot.com/2009/08/down-to-delta.html
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-- Tennessee... 'Hot Zone' ? --

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Long-time interested party Bill Pulliam has begun posting some of his experiences searching for the Ivory-bill in Tennessee in recent times HERE.
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-- Pearl River Scenes --

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Mike Collins has posted some scenic (and other) photos from the Pearl River area he explores here:

http://www.fishcrow.com/gallery.html

(he expects to be back there in a couple weeks-or-so)
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-- Watching Grass Grow --

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This weekend marks the 4th anniversary of the start of this blog... Time flies when you're having fun! After averaging almost 5 posts/wk. over that entire time, things seem sure to slow down heading into blog year #5. Things are sluggish, as well, over at the "IBWO Researchers Forum" for the time being.

Sessions/papers for the national AOU Meeting next month in Philadelphia are now posted on the Web, and also as expected, I see nothing directly related to Ivory-bills (one presentation relates to Pileated Woodpecker ecology in what could be IBWO habitat).

Bill Pulliam has promised over at his "Notes From Soggy Bottom" blog to begin reporting next month on some of the findings/experiences of those who searched western Tennessee for certain big black-and-white woodpeckers over the last two years. It would be interesting of course to hear directly from specific team participants in other key states, as well.

Mike Collins reports he is headed back to the Pearl "soon."

And, in general, still a lot of loose ends to tidy up, hopefully before summer is over and the winter season is again upon us.
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-- The Road Ahead? --

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First, to those who have sent along emails of 'thanks' and well-wishes... hey, this ain't no funeral, nor even a farewell! I expect to be blogging about the Ivory-bill for some time yet, just with fewer-and-farther-between posts. There remain reasons for hope and belief that a few individuals still inhabit southeastern corners. No reason to kid ourselves though... 'proof' of IBWO persistence isn't likely coming forth soon.

I don't much envy the powers-that-be who will be summarizing 4+ years worth of data/evidence. Obviously, they won't look back in retrospect and conclude it was a futile effort, but to the degree that they express optimism or positivity over the results they will be ridiculed in some quarters for spinning or finessing the information gathered. Unfortunately, they're in a bit of a lose-lose situation no matter what they conclude (at least in some circles), but there will be positives in their report.
I am most disappointed (as blogged before) that after 3 years of scouting out areas, year 4 did not produce an increase in the number of credible, detailed sightings (photos I can live without, but there ought be more quality sightings by now, one would expect) --- will be interested to see how many of this season's sighting claims Cornell deems worthy of inclusion in their final report.

Also, I hope in that final report they don't simply offer up another loose laundry list (as we've seen year after year) of "potential," "possible," "interesting" sites deserving further attention. Instead, for the few independent searchers who might make use of such info, I hope they will pinpoint with some specificity the 2-3 places that they think MOST warrant additional concentrated efforts based on totality of evidence gathered, claims, sound recordings, etc. (However, not confident they will do that --- there may be too much disagreement among team members over just which geographic sites are most promising... I suspect there are a lot of disagreements amongst 'recovery team' members!).

Finally, as much as I believe it's just one itsy bit of evidence in this whole long debate, and as much as we're all exhausted of viewing it, maybe still appropriate at this time to post again the video that in many ways convened this whole controversy (...view it and wonder about all the "if-only's"):



Addendum: Above YouTube video seems to have been removed, but can still be found from this Cornell link.
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-- Article Update --

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Article from the "Cornell Chronicle" summarizing the Ornithology Lab's conclusions to date --- nothing new for those who've been following the search all along. Although no further plans for future searching appear in the works, Cornell says it will stay "connected" to the effort and "engaged" in the process. A scholarly book on the entire effort is also likely in the offing at some point. Otherwise, the summer summary report for this season (whenever it appears) will likely be the last account we hear for awhile from official sources that offers additional details and findings.
Don't know of any specific IBWO material being scheduled for next month's national AOU meeting in Philadelphia (other than possibly some related studies on Pileated Woodpecker ecology in the Southeast).

Critics will no doubt see all of this as Cornell trying to tiptoe gracefully away from the story. Time will tell...
Again, it's difficult to imagine how any future sightings, without a carcass or crystal clear photo accompanying, will be taken seriously.
Reminds one a bit of the old line from the classic Peggy Lee song: "Is That All There Is?". . . . .
(...I do expect to be around here for at least one more year reporting whatever there is to report.)
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-- Open Thread #5 --

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Indications are that "official" agencies will abandon most, if not all, searching for the Ivory-bill next season. One wonders how many independents will continue to have the motivation (not to mention time, energy, resources) to search if major entities throw in the towel. No doubt Bobby Harrison's IBWO Foundation will continue their efforts, as time permits, but will be interesting to see how many others do more than an occasional look-see effort. One can imagine that future sighting reports, unaccompanied by a photo, may receive almost no press or even birding attention.

No idea when I'll have something to post here again for the summer, so will just toss up another 'open thread' for now in the event that others have something they want to discuss....

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-- Memory Lane --

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Old 1936 "Natural History" magazine article reprinted online HERE covering the Arthur Allen Cornell expedition that recorded the pics/sounds of Singer Tract Ivory-billed Woodpeckers among other N. American targeted birds (IBWO material toward end of piece).
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-- "Dwindling" --

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Brief news article HERE on the dwindling IBWO interest in Arkansas, with Allan Mueller of the Arkansas Nature Conservancy confirming his organization currently has no plans for further searching next winter [Cornell Lab of Ornithology has likewise indicated the probability that they won't return to the Big Woods next season].
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-- IBWO Simulation/Jeff Wang's Master's Thesis --

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Jeff Wang's 180+ pg. Cornell Master's Thesis from 2007, "Animating the Ivory-billed Woodpecker," is available online as a pdf here:

http://www.graphics.cornell.edu/pubs/2007/Wan07.pdf

Unfortunately the work stops short of the ideal goal of animating both an Ivory-billed and a Pileated Woodpecker and then seeing which one in simulation matches the reality of the bird in the original Luneau video. How much additional work has been done since 2007, or whether Cornell will yet publish its own re-analysis of the Luneau video based on this simulation work, I don't know (they had at one time said a paper would be forthcoming).

The dissertation is HIGHLY technical, but even apart from its tie-in to the Ivory-billed Woodpecker, it may be worth reading for those interested in bird anatomy, evolution, feather structure, and/or flight dynamics.
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-- Lucky James Tanner --

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A reader sends in this link to a Univ. of Tennessee alumni article on the "lucky life" of James Tanner:

http://www.utk.edu/torchbearer/2009/01/a-lucky-life/
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-- Midweek Check-in --

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The bulk of the few rumors/whispers/glimmers filtering my way these days emanate from Arkansas and Louisiana (nothing at all solid), and I'm hearing less from Florida and South Carolina than in the past. Meanwhile, Texas, so far as I can tell, has dropped off the IBWO radar.
Speaking of Louisiana, Mike Collins has added a few overhead birds-eye views of the Pearl River area onto his website here:

http://www.fishcrow.com/airshots.html

Things seem quiet on most fronts; pretty usual for June... although if there are Ivory-bills out there, they are probably moving through the dense forest by now foraging and tooting away, with young in tow...

Meanwhile, some calming avian Web entertainment below :


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-- Science Communication and Twitter --

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A timely talk from a recent Twitter conference in NY city, discussing the ways in which 'Twitter' is altering the nature of current-day science reporting (for those not familiar with it, this is actually a hot topic right now for science journalists, editors, reporters, and scientists themselves). Will we ever have biologist field technicians 'twittering' the latest actions in recovery of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker? Doubtful... but not impossible.



[hat tip to "Coturnix" at 'Blog Around the Clock' for bringing video to my attention.]

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-- What Are the Chances... --

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Off-topic, but in case you've missed it, the story of one bizarrely-unlucky (or, extremely lucky, depending how you view it) Great-horned Owl:



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-- 2008 Synopsis --

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The USFW synopsis of he 2008 search season in pdf form is here:

http://www.fws.gov/ivorybill/IBWAccomplishments2008.pdf

In reference to ongoing studies of Pileated Woodpecker ecology in the Big Woods they note that,
"An important issue that the research will address is the potential limiting influence of predation on the productivity of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker population"... interesting, though I'm not sure that predation upon Ivory-bills is exactly the biggest concern for whatever few individuals may remain. Although, there may be one sort of predation to be concerned over... At another point the summary notes:
"Since the rediscovery of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker local interests in eastern Arkansas have been concerned that their traditional economic activities; such as farming, hunting, fishing, and forestry might be disrupted. The Big Woods of Arkansas Habitat Conservation Plan will allow the continuation of these activities and promote the recovery of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker and five other endangered species."
But they further acknowledge that a questionnaire given to the Big Woods populace indicated that, "About 50% of the landowners surveyed still have concerns about government intervention and control of their land if Ivory-billed Woodpeckers were located on their property." 50% is NOT an insignificant number. One suspects that no matter how much conservation "outreach" is done by academic and governmental authorities a worrisome portion of the resident population may NOT look kindly upon IBWOs being found on land they utilize. The potential reaction of private landowners to IBWO presence on their property (...or even on public property that they use) was a concern 60 years ago, and it's at least as big a concern today.
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-- ACONE System Detailed --

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For engineer and tinkerer-types, a journal article (pdf) HERE explaining the ACONE digital camera system and its successful deployment in the Arkansas Big Woods (though it hasn't captured an IBWO image). Early on, the article mentions that the system will be "active for at least another year," but I suspect this piece was published in 2008 (not sure when?) and that its use may now be over??? --- if anyone knows for sure the current status of the system in the Big Woods, or any other updates, feel free to let us know...

In other news, Scott Crocker's independent "Ghost Bird" documentary will have its U.S. debut at the Maine International Film Festival in Waterville, Maine, July 10-19.
The movie also recently won a $10,000 grant to be used toward further "innovative environmental outreach" of the film.
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-- Of PIWOs and IBWOs --

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Somewhat oddly, in the last two months 4 different people, from different locales, have sent me either pictures or verbal descriptions of 'abnormal' Pileated Woodpeckers (PIWOs) they've seen, with small patches of leucistic white feathering on the back or wings. These were all cases of small, virtually insignificant (and UNsymmetrical) white patches on birds that couldn't conceivably be mistaken for Ivory-bills; indeed several such Pileateds have been recorded by now. But it does all remind one of the more fully white specimen that Cornell noted flying around the Big Woods over 3 years ago.
As I wrote at that time, the concern should not be about that particular leucistic bird (which also couldn't realistically be mistaken for an Ivory-bill), but rather about the possibility of its having parents, siblings or offspring (or even offspring's offspring) that might exhibit some intermediate degree of leucism, which by sheer chance might mimic the pattern of an Ivory-bill. Such a bird was claimed in Florida in the 1970's. If there were in fact such specimens flitting around here-and-there through the Southeast, mimicking Ivory-bills on rare occasions, it might explain a lot --- indeed, in an older post, I called it the only real leg IBWO skeptics had to lean on.

And still today I believe the two likeliest possibilities to account for the full panoply of Ivory-bill sightings on record are:

A) Some Ivory-bills exist, or

B) Bilateral, dorsally-symmetrical leucistic Pileateds, matching the pattern of IBWOs, exist scattered thinly around the southeast.
(...and then one must still account for all the potential IBWO sounds, signs, and possible other data recorded; do-able, but no easy slam-dunk)

The ad-hoc generalization that normal Pileateds (and other even less likely surrogates) can account for ALL IBWO reports of the last few decades, from different observers, in different locales, under different circumstances, is but slimly fathomable (except by examining a mere subset of those reports). So while skeptics await a clear photo of an IBWO to move them forward, I await a clear photo of a look-a-like leucistic Pileated to alter the debate. Without it, possibility "A" above remains the simpler, more plausible scenario.

Meantime, Cornell reports at their website that this search season is over and they will post a summary report sometime during the summer. ...Translation: an official summary might see the light of day by next January.
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