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Just a quick correction to post of couple days ago: a reader informs me the Cornell Mobile Team is still in Fla., currently North Florida, before their return to Ark.
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Thursday, April 24, 2008
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
-- Killing Time --
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For what it's worth....
Some pics of Louisiana's Atchafalaya region here:
http://www.cclockwood.com/stockimages/swamp_hardwoodbottomland.htm
...and another story of potential problems with an endangered species plan here:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24256895/
Again, this gets at the problem I was trying to expose in the "Parable" post, that many such plans are potentially flawed; their short-term success questionable, and their long term success usually doomed (given a long enough term). I certainly don't oppose such efforts, but the chances of full success are more limited than often implied. Moreover, there are sometimes pork-barrel-like politics involved when individuals vigorously want certain pet projects, that are NOT guaranteed of success, funded at the expense of other projects also not guaranteed of success. The way to save species is to save habitat, and unlike many other endangered species, the IBWO search focuses attention on 100s of 1000s of acres of habitat across a wide expanse of land --- yes, it could all come to naught, but the evidence and verdict is far from in, despite what some choose to contend.
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For what it's worth....
Some pics of Louisiana's Atchafalaya region here:
http://www.cclockwood.com/stockimages/swamp_hardwoodbottomland.htm
...and another story of potential problems with an endangered species plan here:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24256895/
Again, this gets at the problem I was trying to expose in the "Parable" post, that many such plans are potentially flawed; their short-term success questionable, and their long term success usually doomed (given a long enough term). I certainly don't oppose such efforts, but the chances of full success are more limited than often implied. Moreover, there are sometimes pork-barrel-like politics involved when individuals vigorously want certain pet projects, that are NOT guaranteed of success, funded at the expense of other projects also not guaranteed of success. The way to save species is to save habitat, and unlike many other endangered species, the IBWO search focuses attention on 100s of 1000s of acres of habitat across a wide expanse of land --- yes, it could all come to naught, but the evidence and verdict is far from in, despite what some choose to contend.
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Tuesday, April 22, 2008
-- Mobile Team --
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Cornell's Mobile Team's latest update is now up covering their travels in the Mangrove forests, Everglades, and Fakahatchee Strand of South Florida, with no breaking IBWO news. Update only goes through March 26th, almost 4 weeks ago. I suspect by now they're well on their way back to Arkansas or even there already.
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Cornell's Mobile Team's latest update is now up covering their travels in the Mangrove forests, Everglades, and Fakahatchee Strand of South Florida, with no breaking IBWO news. Update only goes through March 26th, almost 4 weeks ago. I suspect by now they're well on their way back to Arkansas or even there already.
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Monday, April 21, 2008
-- ??????? --
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In possibly more discouraging news, just noticed this brief note from LSU's James Van Remsen on the Louisiana birding listserv today in regard to the La. IBWO search:
In other news, in early March I briefly mentioned here the surprise finding (by remote camera) in California of a wolverine long thought to be extirpated from the area. Here an interesting follow-up report to that story demonstrating that controversy isn't unique to the Ivory-bill situation.
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In possibly more discouraging news, just noticed this brief note from LSU's James Van Remsen on the Louisiana birding listserv today in regard to the La. IBWO search:
"LA DWF sponsored a 4-person, 30-day search of the best habitats in Pearl River WMA in Jan/Feb, and they did not detect any evidence for presence of IBWO."Can I assume this is in fact a reference to THIS year (if so, did they have any contact with Mike Collins)??? I had not heard of the LSU folks spending any significant time in the Pearl of late (...if anything, one might expect them to be spending time in the Atchafalaya this season?). (Their 2002 effort was a similar 6-person, 30-day Jan/Feb search of the Pearl.)
In other news, in early March I briefly mentioned here the surprise finding (by remote camera) in California of a wolverine long thought to be extirpated from the area. Here an interesting follow-up report to that story demonstrating that controversy isn't unique to the Ivory-bill situation.
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-- A Parable --
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An old parable tells of a young boy who spies an old man early one morning walking along the shoreline, picking up starfish in the sand and tossing them into the sea. The boy runs up and asks, "What are you doing old man?" To which the man explains, "These starfish were stranded in the sand overnight by the tide, and if they don't get back in the water before the sun rises they will bake and die here." The boy looks far down the shoreline and says, "but old man there are thousands of starfish along this beach, what possible difference do you think your efforts can make?" The old man picks up another, tossing it into the waves, and responds, "it made a difference to THAT one."
Our efforts in conservation are frankly miniscule, and almost meaningless, in the grand scheme of things, yet it is still imperative we make such efforts on behalf of whatever remnant of moral authority we have as humans.
I'd almost rather not write this post but increasingly feel pushed to, since skeptics now give so much weight to the notion that dollars spent on the IBWO is wasted while other endangered species go begging. OPEN YOUR EYES! --- MOST current endangered species, as well as most wild vertebrate life, on this continent WILL be largely GONE within a few hundred years no matter how short-term money is spent; THAT is the unstoppable trajectory that human development is on; if someone can paint me a realistic scenario in which that is NOT the case I'd be curious to see it.
People are looking 25-50 years into the future and believing that blip of time means something. It doesn't. You can kiss the condors and whooping cranes and spotted owls and most wood warblers, etc. etc. etc. goodbye. Such is the dirty little secret of human "progress." Still, morally, those of us who care about such things have no choice but to make the effort to save them anyway, for however briefly we can. It is really no different than spending enormous sums of money on medical procedures for individuals with cancer, or heart disease, or stroke, or Alzheimers, etc. to extend their lives for 5 or 10 or even 25 years --- even though they/we are all going to die in the end. If we make such efforts for individuals we should certainly do so for whole species, even if doomed. We can save some of these species long enough that our grandchildren, maybe even our great grandchildren, can see them, but if you think your great grandchildren's great grandchildren will see them you are dreaming, with little sense of the speed of oncoming changes. Apologies for my pessimism....
Working to save the Ivory-bill, even if it turned out to be gone, just might entail preserving more land and habitat than work on behalf of almost any other species now under consideration. I'm not convinced the $27 million is a wise use of dollars... problem is, I'm not convinced it isn't, and I still find the naysayers' arguments just a tad too simplistic and pollyannish about how much good it would automatically do elsewhere. Like so much in this debate, that is one great big unsettled... MAYBE.
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An old parable tells of a young boy who spies an old man early one morning walking along the shoreline, picking up starfish in the sand and tossing them into the sea. The boy runs up and asks, "What are you doing old man?" To which the man explains, "These starfish were stranded in the sand overnight by the tide, and if they don't get back in the water before the sun rises they will bake and die here." The boy looks far down the shoreline and says, "but old man there are thousands of starfish along this beach, what possible difference do you think your efforts can make?" The old man picks up another, tossing it into the waves, and responds, "it made a difference to THAT one."
Our efforts in conservation are frankly miniscule, and almost meaningless, in the grand scheme of things, yet it is still imperative we make such efforts on behalf of whatever remnant of moral authority we have as humans.
I'd almost rather not write this post but increasingly feel pushed to, since skeptics now give so much weight to the notion that dollars spent on the IBWO is wasted while other endangered species go begging. OPEN YOUR EYES! --- MOST current endangered species, as well as most wild vertebrate life, on this continent WILL be largely GONE within a few hundred years no matter how short-term money is spent; THAT is the unstoppable trajectory that human development is on; if someone can paint me a realistic scenario in which that is NOT the case I'd be curious to see it.
People are looking 25-50 years into the future and believing that blip of time means something. It doesn't. You can kiss the condors and whooping cranes and spotted owls and most wood warblers, etc. etc. etc. goodbye. Such is the dirty little secret of human "progress." Still, morally, those of us who care about such things have no choice but to make the effort to save them anyway, for however briefly we can. It is really no different than spending enormous sums of money on medical procedures for individuals with cancer, or heart disease, or stroke, or Alzheimers, etc. to extend their lives for 5 or 10 or even 25 years --- even though they/we are all going to die in the end. If we make such efforts for individuals we should certainly do so for whole species, even if doomed. We can save some of these species long enough that our grandchildren, maybe even our great grandchildren, can see them, but if you think your great grandchildren's great grandchildren will see them you are dreaming, with little sense of the speed of oncoming changes. Apologies for my pessimism....
Working to save the Ivory-bill, even if it turned out to be gone, just might entail preserving more land and habitat than work on behalf of almost any other species now under consideration. I'm not convinced the $27 million is a wise use of dollars... problem is, I'm not convinced it isn't, and I still find the naysayers' arguments just a tad too simplistic and pollyannish about how much good it would automatically do elsewhere. Like so much in this debate, that is one great big unsettled... MAYBE.
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Sunday, April 20, 2008
-- Don't Ask, Don't Tell?--
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Emailers keep asking about various things/rumors... if I knew of anything impending I couldn't report it anyway, so not a lot of point in asking! But, I don't. Ground searches will be largely wound down by end of month, though various cameras/ARUs will remain up and monitored. Still awaiting a final report from Cornell's Mobile Team as to any thoughts from time spent in Florida. Don't know for sure, but I don't expect any significant results from the Auburn group in the Panhandle, nor from the Arkansas effort, nor from Texas. Tennessee of course indicated a few glimmers lately, but likely nothing conclusive. Similarly for South Carolina, and not certain they will even publicly release their findings. Don't know about Louisiana, but doubt there will be anything significant to report out of Mississippi, Alabama, or Georgia. All just hunches, and not much point to emailing me for further info/answers that I don't have (though there are a few details I'm waiting to hear more about). Officials will report things on their own timetable as appropriate. Of course there are also some independent searchers out there who don't answer to the IBWO Working Group and can report more freely. And no, I don't know anything further about Bill Smith's supposed book either. Let's see, does that about cover it. Hope I'm wrong, and there's more to certain rumors than I've gotten wind of, but not holdin' my breath. Better to maintain low expectations and maybe be surprised, than the other way around.
Otherwise, the Ivory-billed Woodpecker just keeps getting around, showing up yesterday in the "The Huffington Post" of all places. Just a brief mention many paragraphs down in a rant from Harry Fuller, but since he seems to have gotten most of it right in his essay, perhaps he's right about our friend the IBWO.
.......................................................
Elsewhere:
This from "Icanhascheezburger" blog:
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Emailers keep asking about various things/rumors... if I knew of anything impending I couldn't report it anyway, so not a lot of point in asking! But, I don't. Ground searches will be largely wound down by end of month, though various cameras/ARUs will remain up and monitored. Still awaiting a final report from Cornell's Mobile Team as to any thoughts from time spent in Florida. Don't know for sure, but I don't expect any significant results from the Auburn group in the Panhandle, nor from the Arkansas effort, nor from Texas. Tennessee of course indicated a few glimmers lately, but likely nothing conclusive. Similarly for South Carolina, and not certain they will even publicly release their findings. Don't know about Louisiana, but doubt there will be anything significant to report out of Mississippi, Alabama, or Georgia. All just hunches, and not much point to emailing me for further info/answers that I don't have (though there are a few details I'm waiting to hear more about). Officials will report things on their own timetable as appropriate. Of course there are also some independent searchers out there who don't answer to the IBWO Working Group and can report more freely. And no, I don't know anything further about Bill Smith's supposed book either. Let's see, does that about cover it. Hope I'm wrong, and there's more to certain rumors than I've gotten wind of, but not holdin' my breath. Better to maintain low expectations and maybe be surprised, than the other way around.
Otherwise, the Ivory-billed Woodpecker just keeps getting around, showing up yesterday in the "The Huffington Post" of all places. Just a brief mention many paragraphs down in a rant from Harry Fuller, but since he seems to have gotten most of it right in his essay, perhaps he's right about our friend the IBWO.
.......................................................
Elsewhere:
This from "Icanhascheezburger" blog:
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Friday, April 18, 2008
-- Weekend --
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Not much news, so will just head into the weekend with this quote drawn from Morris Kline's classic, "Mathematics: the Loss of Certainty" (it is in reference to the 20th century crumbling of the foundations of mathematics):
As an emailer recently wrote, we're heading into the bottom of the ninth (for this season), and I wish I had more to say but that's all for now.
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Not much news, so will just head into the weekend with this quote drawn from Morris Kline's classic, "Mathematics: the Loss of Certainty" (it is in reference to the 20th century crumbling of the foundations of mathematics):
"The developments in this century bearing on the foundations of mathematics are best summarized in a story. On the banks of the Rhine, a beautiful castle had been standing for centuries. In the cellar of the castle, an intricate network of webbing had been constructed by industrious spiders, who lived there. One day a strong wind sprang up and destroyed the web. Frantically, the spiders worked to repair the damage. They thought it was their webbing that was holding up the castle."I think "the foundations of mathematics" could be substituted with "the existence of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker," and the only question remaining then is whether the spiders represent skeptics or believers...
As an emailer recently wrote, we're heading into the bottom of the ninth (for this season), and I wish I had more to say but that's all for now.
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Wednesday, April 16, 2008
-- Stalking The Ghost Bird --
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Only recently acquired Professor Michael Steinberg's new volume, "Stalking the Ghost Bird," about the search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker in Louisiana (buy here or here). Not finished with it, but will say a few things, since some emailers have asked about it:
The book is highly anecdotal, which both makes it interesting, but also easily dismissable by critics. But within those anecdotes it gives a little more of the flavor of the many Ivory-bill sightings which have occurred throughout the southeast over the years (even though it largely focuses on La.), but aren't always widely publicized. Indeed, several names, both professionals and average Joes, that are prominent in this book, aren't seen much or at all in some other Ivory-bill volumes (BTW, Mike Collins' work at the Pearl is not included in the book, for anyone wondering -- much of the book was probably written prior to Mike's efforts). The author and most of those he interviews clearly believe in the species' likely persistence. A nice, brief summary of major sighting claims across the south over the decades is given at book's end.
At a pricey $25 (or $17 Amazon) for a ~150 page book that focuses primarily on a single state it's hard for me to wholeheartedly recommend it to all (academic press publications tend to be pricey, and not sure why this couldn't have come out directly in paperback, and cheaper), but it does fill a different niche from other IBWO books and is an enjoyable read and relatively current... so hardcore 'true believers' may well want it (IBWO skeptics will view it as more-of-the-same)... or, if the species is finally confirmed in Louisiana ahead of all other states, then... yeah, it may get snapped off the shelves.
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Only recently acquired Professor Michael Steinberg's new volume, "Stalking the Ghost Bird," about the search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker in Louisiana (buy here or here). Not finished with it, but will say a few things, since some emailers have asked about it:
The book is highly anecdotal, which both makes it interesting, but also easily dismissable by critics. But within those anecdotes it gives a little more of the flavor of the many Ivory-bill sightings which have occurred throughout the southeast over the years (even though it largely focuses on La.), but aren't always widely publicized. Indeed, several names, both professionals and average Joes, that are prominent in this book, aren't seen much or at all in some other Ivory-bill volumes (BTW, Mike Collins' work at the Pearl is not included in the book, for anyone wondering -- much of the book was probably written prior to Mike's efforts). The author and most of those he interviews clearly believe in the species' likely persistence. A nice, brief summary of major sighting claims across the south over the decades is given at book's end.
At a pricey $25 (or $17 Amazon) for a ~150 page book that focuses primarily on a single state it's hard for me to wholeheartedly recommend it to all (academic press publications tend to be pricey, and not sure why this couldn't have come out directly in paperback, and cheaper), but it does fill a different niche from other IBWO books and is an enjoyable read and relatively current... so hardcore 'true believers' may well want it (IBWO skeptics will view it as more-of-the-same)... or, if the species is finally confirmed in Louisiana ahead of all other states, then... yeah, it may get snapped off the shelves.
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-- Other Stuff --
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Nice essay on extinction by Jonathan Rosen here (though no mention made of the Ivory-bill).
And other vitally important news of the woodpecker-variety here.
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Nice essay on extinction by Jonathan Rosen here (though no mention made of the Ivory-bill).
And other vitally important news of the woodpecker-variety here.
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Tuesday, April 15, 2008
-- More From Cornell --
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When Cornell's Arkansas Team never mentioned the results of their Big Woods' helicopter search in their Feb. updates, one could surmise it meant there wasn't much news to report. So not surprising that in a new Cornell summary of that endeavor, it is concluded that Ivory-bills and many other birds simply do not adequately flush for view at the sound of such overhead flights. Their summary here.
The principal piece of evidence they have is the small number (percentage-wise) of Pileateds which flushed out into the open (they have a sense of the overall numbers of Pileateds present from their extensive groundwork, and of course any IBWOs would be hugely fewer).
This reminds me that I've long wondered how many Pileateds are being captured on film by remote cameras in the Big Woods. Critics find it hard-to-imagine that, if they exist, Ivory-bills haven't yet been captured by remote cameras. Knowing the number and frequency of capturing PIWOs on film might give a slightly better indication of the likelihood that an IBWO ought to have been filmed by now. Anyone out there have such stats (both total no. of PIWOs captured, and as a percentage of all 'critters' captured on film --- one practical problem is that many shots of PIWO will be the same bird returning again and again to the same cavity or foraging site)???
...............................................................
And another aside:
Two men are staring at a lone sentence on a blackboard. It reads simply:
"Only an idiot would believe this sentence."
The first man asks the second, "Do you believe that sentence?"
The second man replies, "OF COURSE NOT! Only an idiot would believe that sentence."
Think about it....
(I've adapted this from one of my favorite, more unusual, internet sites: http://www.futilitycloset.com/ )
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When Cornell's Arkansas Team never mentioned the results of their Big Woods' helicopter search in their Feb. updates, one could surmise it meant there wasn't much news to report. So not surprising that in a new Cornell summary of that endeavor, it is concluded that Ivory-bills and many other birds simply do not adequately flush for view at the sound of such overhead flights. Their summary here.
The principal piece of evidence they have is the small number (percentage-wise) of Pileateds which flushed out into the open (they have a sense of the overall numbers of Pileateds present from their extensive groundwork, and of course any IBWOs would be hugely fewer).
This reminds me that I've long wondered how many Pileateds are being captured on film by remote cameras in the Big Woods. Critics find it hard-to-imagine that, if they exist, Ivory-bills haven't yet been captured by remote cameras. Knowing the number and frequency of capturing PIWOs on film might give a slightly better indication of the likelihood that an IBWO ought to have been filmed by now. Anyone out there have such stats (both total no. of PIWOs captured, and as a percentage of all 'critters' captured on film --- one practical problem is that many shots of PIWO will be the same bird returning again and again to the same cavity or foraging site)???
...............................................................
And another aside:
Two men are staring at a lone sentence on a blackboard. It reads simply:
"Only an idiot would believe this sentence."
The first man asks the second, "Do you believe that sentence?"
The second man replies, "OF COURSE NOT! Only an idiot would believe that sentence."
Think about it....
(I've adapted this from one of my favorite, more unusual, internet sites: http://www.futilitycloset.com/ )
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Monday, April 14, 2008
-- Southwest Arkansas --
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New update from Cornell's Arkansas team with more actual details than they usually afford us, here; continued followup in western Tennessee is briefly mentioned, but most of post about investigating a previously-unsearched area of southwest Arkansas. Interesting story of an encounter with a Pileated missing all its secondaries as well. Buuut... need I say it, no headline IBWO news. Can an update from the Mobile Team now be far behind...?
Re: those inquiring emails I'm getting... no, NO, the recent blog alterations mean NOTHING... I had several changes in mind to make this summer, and seeing David Luneau's revamped website just inspired me to do a few cosmetic changes of my own right now. And there's nothing to read between the lines either. Yes, there are multiple rumors afloat... and there are ALWAYS rumors in April... nothing substantive that I'm aware of, and I've serious doubts (in terms of anything definitive) that any of it means much. But, as skeptics would say, I could be mistaken, and others may have a different take altogether. Carry on.....
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New update from Cornell's Arkansas team with more actual details than they usually afford us, here; continued followup in western Tennessee is briefly mentioned, but most of post about investigating a previously-unsearched area of southwest Arkansas. Interesting story of an encounter with a Pileated missing all its secondaries as well. Buuut... need I say it, no headline IBWO news. Can an update from the Mobile Team now be far behind...?
Re: those inquiring emails I'm getting... no, NO, the recent blog alterations mean NOTHING... I had several changes in mind to make this summer, and seeing David Luneau's revamped website just inspired me to do a few cosmetic changes of my own right now. And there's nothing to read between the lines either. Yes, there are multiple rumors afloat... and there are ALWAYS rumors in April... nothing substantive that I'm aware of, and I've serious doubts (in terms of anything definitive) that any of it means much. But, as skeptics would say, I could be mistaken, and others may have a different take altogether. Carry on.....
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Sunday, April 13, 2008
-- More Misc. --
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[ -- Making a few cosmetic changes just to battle the current tedium... ]
Ventures Birding Tours has an upcoming May 8 (Thur.) outing to the Congaree in S.Carolina scheduled ($35/day). Will probably cover some of the more well-traveled areas of the park (not the more remote and vast areas of IBWO interest, but still might be of interest to some of you.
From the late Arthur C. Clarke this:
Elsewhere:
A recent post from Rich Guthrie regarding white Red-Tailed Hawks (but NOT true albinos) that I found of interest:
http://blogs.timesunion.com/birding/?p=148
David Sibley has had some good discussion recently at his blog regarding a Texas border fence/wall proposed by the Feds for national security concerns, but with potentially devastating consequences for area birds. Worth checking out:
http://sibleyguides.blogspot.com/
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[ -- Making a few cosmetic changes just to battle the current tedium... ]
Ventures Birding Tours has an upcoming May 8 (Thur.) outing to the Congaree in S.Carolina scheduled ($35/day). Will probably cover some of the more well-traveled areas of the park (not the more remote and vast areas of IBWO interest, but still might be of interest to some of you.
From the late Arthur C. Clarke this:
"It is really quite amazing by what margins competent but conservative scientists and engineers can miss the mark, when they start with the preconceived idea that what they are investigating is impossible. When this happens, the most well-informed men become blinded by their prejudices and are unable to see what lies directly ahead of them."............................................
Elsewhere:
A recent post from Rich Guthrie regarding white Red-Tailed Hawks (but NOT true albinos) that I found of interest:
http://blogs.timesunion.com/birding/?p=148
David Sibley has had some good discussion recently at his blog regarding a Texas border fence/wall proposed by the Feds for national security concerns, but with potentially devastating consequences for area birds. Worth checking out:
http://sibleyguides.blogspot.com/
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Saturday, April 12, 2008
-- Misc. --
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David Luneau has re-done his Ivory-bill website here. Looks nice; same info available as before, but may have to hunt around a little bit for it if you'd gotten used to his old webpage.
See if we can nudge 'em... ;-)) --- been over a month since Cornell's Mobile Team did their last update, at that point from S. Florida....
The First Santee Birding and Nature Festival (S.Carolina) takes place next weekend (Apr. 18-20):
http://www.fws.gov/santee/Santee-birding-festival-2008.pdf
...................................................................
If you haven't checked in with the 3 California owl babies lately they're growing fast (and moving around a lot, so they're not always in camera view), and ugly as sin... NO, NO, just kidding! :
http://www.cs.csubak.edu/owlcam/camera.php
I'll replay an old riddle used here once before:
Three spiders named Mr. Ten, Mr. Nine, and Mr. Eight are crawling along an Amazonian jungle floor. One spider has 10 legs; one has 9 legs; and one has 8 legs. All of them are usually quite happy and enjoy the diversity of animals with whom they share the jungle. Today, however, the hot weather is giving them bad tempers.
“I think it is interesting,” says Mr. Ten, “that none of us have the same number of legs that our names would suggest.”
“Who the heck cares?” replies the spider with 9 legs.
How many legs does Mr. Nine have? (There is only one correct answer, and it is easily determinable from the information given, but interestingly several folks have difficulty with it).
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David Luneau has re-done his Ivory-bill website here. Looks nice; same info available as before, but may have to hunt around a little bit for it if you'd gotten used to his old webpage.
See if we can nudge 'em... ;-)) --- been over a month since Cornell's Mobile Team did their last update, at that point from S. Florida....
The First Santee Birding and Nature Festival (S.Carolina) takes place next weekend (Apr. 18-20):
http://www.fws.gov/santee/Santee-birding-festival-2008.pdf
...................................................................
If you haven't checked in with the 3 California owl babies lately they're growing fast (and moving around a lot, so they're not always in camera view), and ugly as sin... NO, NO, just kidding! :
http://www.cs.csubak.edu/owlcam/camera.php
I'll replay an old riddle used here once before:
Three spiders named Mr. Ten, Mr. Nine, and Mr. Eight are crawling along an Amazonian jungle floor. One spider has 10 legs; one has 9 legs; and one has 8 legs. All of them are usually quite happy and enjoy the diversity of animals with whom they share the jungle. Today, however, the hot weather is giving them bad tempers.
“I think it is interesting,” says Mr. Ten, “that none of us have the same number of legs that our names would suggest.”
“Who the heck cares?” replies the spider with 9 legs.
How many legs does Mr. Nine have? (There is only one correct answer, and it is easily determinable from the information given, but interestingly several folks have difficulty with it).
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Friday, April 11, 2008
-- More S.C. Study --
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An emailer directs me to a listing of an IBWO study (of sorts) in the Congaree region apparently submitted by Ivory-bill researcher Fred Virrazzi about a month ago. It lists a contact for further info, though I'm not sure how much info they're actually giving out, nor do I personally know the specifics of the study beyond what's indicated in the title, "Assessment of Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) and Picidae Responsiveness to Anthropomorphic Double Knocks in the Summer Season." [ You have to select the year "2007," "Congaree NP," and the subject "birds/ornithology" to get to the citation. ]
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An emailer directs me to a listing of an IBWO study (of sorts) in the Congaree region apparently submitted by Ivory-bill researcher Fred Virrazzi about a month ago. It lists a contact for further info, though I'm not sure how much info they're actually giving out, nor do I personally know the specifics of the study beyond what's indicated in the title, "Assessment of Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) and Picidae Responsiveness to Anthropomorphic Double Knocks in the Summer Season." [ You have to select the year "2007," "Congaree NP," and the subject "birds/ornithology" to get to the citation. ]
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Thursday, April 10, 2008
-- FWIW --
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Whatever: http://amasci.com/tesla/ballsci.txt
...and elsewhere on the Web:
If this picture is any indication of mutations-to-be, I s'pose any photograph of a purported Ivory-billed Woodpecker is also now useless as evidence; we will need DNA!
....and some more remarkable pics here (nothing to do with IBWOs):
http://fireflyforest.net/firefly/2006/10/11/tucsons-hummingbird-feeder-bats/
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Whatever: http://amasci.com/tesla/ballsci.txt
...and elsewhere on the Web:
If this picture is any indication of mutations-to-be, I s'pose any photograph of a purported Ivory-billed Woodpecker is also now useless as evidence; we will need DNA!
....and some more remarkable pics here (nothing to do with IBWOs):
http://fireflyforest.net/firefly/2006/10/11/tucsons-hummingbird-feeder-bats/
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Wednesday, April 09, 2008
-- Nothing New --
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here, report (pdf) from US Fish & Wildlife, summarizing results of the 2006-7 IBWO search season. Also includes some planning, funding, and conservation details, but nothing new in the way of evidence for the presence of Ivory-bills that wasn't already in the public domain in some form (several dozen possible auditory encounters and at most 20 potential visual encounters from across the entire southeast are cited for the season --- slightly more state-by-state detail was given in this earlier report ). And with another season now close to ending, time nears to commence another such report.
......................................................
Elsewhere in the world of birds:
For your laugh of the day this story (which includes this line, just to pull you in: "Nervous postal workers in the area have been armed with water pistols".
And for your cry of the day this:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=8575
(of course skeptics already got their laughs and cries from the above US F&W summary... just thought I'd throw that in before someone sends it as a comment).
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Here, report (pdf) from US Fish & Wildlife, summarizing results of the 2006-7 IBWO search season. Also includes some planning, funding, and conservation details, but nothing new in the way of evidence for the presence of Ivory-bills that wasn't already in the public domain in some form (several dozen possible auditory encounters and at most 20 potential visual encounters from across the entire southeast are cited for the season --- slightly more state-by-state detail was given in this earlier report ). And with another season now close to ending, time nears to commence another such report.
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Elsewhere in the world of birds:
For your laugh of the day this story (which includes this line, just to pull you in: "Nervous postal workers in the area have been armed with water pistols".
And for your cry of the day this:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=8575
(of course skeptics already got their laughs and cries from the above US F&W summary... just thought I'd throw that in before someone sends it as a comment).
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Tuesday, April 08, 2008
-- Or, Maybe Not --
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An e-mailer reminds me that I haven't done a TOP 10 list for awhile, so without further ado:
Top 10 press releases from assorted skeptics in the event an Ivory-billed Woodpecker is caught on videotape:
10. Jerry Jackson: Hallelujah, hallelujah, I'm a believer!!
9. David Sibley: Get it to my studio pronto so I can sketch those coverts and secondaries!
8. Ilya MacLean: If it looks like an Ivory-bill, and it flies like an Ivory-bill, and it toots like an Ivory-bill, c'mon it's gotta be some sorta duck.
7. The Board of the American Birding Association: huuuuuhhh, say WHAAAAAT????
6. Louis Bevier: It doesn't matter a twit, the Luneau video is STIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIILL a Pileated.
5. Kenn Kaufman: DOHHHHHHH!!!
4. Patrick Coin: LORD GOD, what a videotape!!
3. Jane Turner: Ok so it's NOT a Pileated, but are we absolutely positively certain it isn't a bloody-crested, oversized, bi-laterally leucistic crow, with jaundiced eyes and steroidal albino beak-syndrome. Are we sure, huh?....
2. Martin Collinson: CRIIIIIIKEY!!!!
1. Tom Nelson: seeeee, what did I tell ya, yet more evidence that global warming is just a friggin' sham! (...oh, and puhhleeeeze everyone, stop by my blog and read today's 163 scintillating posts).
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An e-mailer reminds me that I haven't done a TOP 10 list for awhile, so without further ado:
Top 10 press releases from assorted skeptics in the event an Ivory-billed Woodpecker is caught on videotape:
10. Jerry Jackson: Hallelujah, hallelujah, I'm a believer!!
9. David Sibley: Get it to my studio pronto so I can sketch those coverts and secondaries!
8. Ilya MacLean: If it looks like an Ivory-bill, and it flies like an Ivory-bill, and it toots like an Ivory-bill, c'mon it's gotta be some sorta duck.
7. The Board of the American Birding Association: huuuuuhhh, say WHAAAAAT????
6. Louis Bevier: It doesn't matter a twit, the Luneau video is STIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIILL a Pileated.
5. Kenn Kaufman: DOHHHHHHH!!!
4. Patrick Coin: LORD GOD, what a videotape!!
3. Jane Turner: Ok so it's NOT a Pileated, but are we absolutely positively certain it isn't a bloody-crested, oversized, bi-laterally leucistic crow, with jaundiced eyes and steroidal albino beak-syndrome. Are we sure, huh?....
2. Martin Collinson: CRIIIIIIKEY!!!!
1. Tom Nelson: seeeee, what did I tell ya, yet more evidence that global warming is just a friggin' sham! (...oh, and puhhleeeeze everyone, stop by my blog and read today's 163 scintillating posts).
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Monday, April 07, 2008
-- And The 'Expectations' Game --
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Another frequent contention of skeptics is that Ivory-bill reports are simply the result of excited people going into the woods "expecting" or "anticipating" seeing the bird, even though many if not most serious IBWO claims since the 50s have come from folks who weren't even looking for the species. Indeed, if expectations were such a driving force, by now one might've expected far MORE reports during the last two years of intense searching; FAAAR more. Instead we are getting precisely what one would anticipate for an exceedingly rare species: occasional, few-and-far-between sightings, not a rash of encounters.
Moreover, expectations cut both ways: BY FAR the PRIMARY expectation for the last 6 decades of birding in southern woods has been that any large black-and-white woodpecker was a Pileated. An important question (with unknowable answer) is how many brief sightings over the years, written off as 'Pileateds,' were in fact unrealized Ivory-bills. It is the heavily-biasing expectation birders have for seeing PILEATEDS in the forest which actually needs to be recognized and adjusted, so that in the future all large B&W woodpeckers might be studied more closely, instead of routinely shrugged off.
What all the skeptics' doubts boil down to is this: no Ivory-bill report of the last 60 years has been followed up with multiple quality sightings, nor clear photos, nor roost or nesthole finds, and skeptics simply find this an unfathomable, incomprehensible, unintelligible circumstance, so great is their trust in human capabilities and thoroughness... a trust toward which, needless to say, I am highly skeptical.
...............................................................
Elsewhere on the Web:
"Black Swan theory" here and here.
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Another frequent contention of skeptics is that Ivory-bill reports are simply the result of excited people going into the woods "expecting" or "anticipating" seeing the bird, even though many if not most serious IBWO claims since the 50s have come from folks who weren't even looking for the species. Indeed, if expectations were such a driving force, by now one might've expected far MORE reports during the last two years of intense searching; FAAAR more. Instead we are getting precisely what one would anticipate for an exceedingly rare species: occasional, few-and-far-between sightings, not a rash of encounters.
Moreover, expectations cut both ways: BY FAR the PRIMARY expectation for the last 6 decades of birding in southern woods has been that any large black-and-white woodpecker was a Pileated. An important question (with unknowable answer) is how many brief sightings over the years, written off as 'Pileateds,' were in fact unrealized Ivory-bills. It is the heavily-biasing expectation birders have for seeing PILEATEDS in the forest which actually needs to be recognized and adjusted, so that in the future all large B&W woodpeckers might be studied more closely, instead of routinely shrugged off.
What all the skeptics' doubts boil down to is this: no Ivory-bill report of the last 60 years has been followed up with multiple quality sightings, nor clear photos, nor roost or nesthole finds, and skeptics simply find this an unfathomable, incomprehensible, unintelligible circumstance, so great is their trust in human capabilities and thoroughness... a trust toward which, needless to say, I am highly skeptical.
...............................................................
Elsewhere on the Web:
"Black Swan theory" here and here.
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