Saturday, March 18, 2006

-- One More Time...(yaaawn) --

--------------------------------------------------------------
I'll apologize in advance to those who are bored with this topic and line-of-argument; had hoped not to deal with it again, but with the widespread press/comment the Sibley piece is getting find the Luneau video must be addressed yet again: The 4-second clip has been ambiguous from the start -- as stated previously I'm not even certain that the bird in question must be a woodpecker (which stems only from the assumption that the bird is perched on the side of a tree trunk at the start -- likely so, but not absolutely demonstrated). BUT, probablistically, the bird IS a woodpecker, in which case there are, probablistically, only 2 choices, and I am swayed, not by the visual evidence, but by the size and wingbeat analysis that, probablistically, it is an IBWO -- but it is almost certainly UNresolvable and alternative interpretations are feasible. The point is that the bird on the video could be a muscovy duck for all I care! it is just one shred of the evidence and one must consider the totality of evidence both in Arkansas and across 5 decades.
The Arkansas claim was exciting to many of us because we specifically DIDN'T believe the Ivory-bill was in that state. We believed it is in Fla., Miss., La. and possibly Tx. or S.C. The Ar. find opened the door to all kinds of possibilities of a more northerly range and a larger population -- if the bird is never found in Ar. (I still think it will be in time) it does nothing to change the original history and likely range of the species (and thankfully other searches are ongoing).

Now... if your child is kidnapped and after a month the police come to you and say 'sorry we can't expend any more resources on this case, we have other matters to attend to; the fact is that if a child isn't found in the first 48 hrs. they are almost certainly dead,' do you then reply, 'Yeah, I guess I'll just get on with my life now and not waste any more time, thanks for trying.' OF COURSE NOT!, you keep searching, following every possible lead, until the child is found or you have a corpse -- we are in a similar situation, except our concern is not a lone individual but an entire species here. Some will say that 60 years in the life of a species is more than 30 days in the life of a child -- it ISN'T, especially given the habitat in question and repeated claims over time. For some of us the IBWO is a lost child that was prematurely abandoned, and just maybe we can yet rectify our prior inaction and resignation. THAT is the error we must NOT risk making again, and that is why the validitiy or invaliditiy of a single unresolvable 4-second video clip is simply not significant in the grand scheme of things.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, March 17, 2006

-- And the Harrison Video --

--------------------------------------------------------
Quite awhile back Bobby Harrison announced having captured a very brief Ivory-bill video in the Big Woods that didn't sound very promising and quickly dropped from the radar screen. So I was intrigued today when in a post on her blog "Birdchick" wrote:
"I had dinner with Bobby Harrison tonight, he's doing well but is very tired from his time in the swamp as well as speaking schedule. We have some new audio of Bobby at Eagle Optics.com about some of the video he has taken. I watched it tonight, and quite frankly, it's more compelling to me as ivory-bill evidence than the Luneau video. I wonder why Cornell isn't promoting or using it more as part of the ivory-bill research?"

When I inquired of her if this was the same clip originally alluded to in the press, she responded it was and that when slowed down and viewed frame-by-frame reiterated finding it "compelling" (though certainly not the cover shot everyone craves).
--------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, March 16, 2006

-- Another Sibley Piece --

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just to give him his due, I just discovered David has another new , more personal (less academic) and more impassioned essay on the Ivory-bill controversy available now at the Nature Conservancy website emphasizing conservation and continued searching for the IBWO:

http://www.nature.org/ivorybill/current/art17481.html

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- And Stiiiill, More of the Same... --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In a kind of he-said-she-said squareoff in Science today David Sibley et.al. have advanced their critique of the Arkansas Ivory-bill claims, followed immediately by a rebuttal from Cornell:

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/311/5767/1555a

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/311/5767/1555b

Both are short and I suppose worth reading although this material has basically already been covered elsewhere by now and some folks will simply get bogged down in the minutia of the arguments at this point. As I suspected might be the case, the Sibley piece is entirely a critique of the Luneau video, and even at that, basically just focusses on the initial perched white wing pattern and the black-white pattern in flight -- with only slight mention of the wingbeat or size analysis. And as Cornell notes, Sibley misrepresents the amount of white in the Pileated underwing in his own field guide depiction. There is little critique of the acoustic data or the 7-16 sightings originally reported which are really the core of Cornell's evidence (the video is just an adjunct; almost an afterthought they worked with when they were unable to obtain better film). As I've said before someone must make the case that 7 credible knowledgeable individuals are either dishonest or incompetent to truly knock down Cornell's evidence; probablistically 1 or 2 or 3 people erring may happen but as you increase the number to 4, 5, 6, 7 - 16 independent sightings, the probability rapidly declines. (Similarly, no one ever successfully challenged the credibility of David Kulivan in 1999 and his closer, lengthier sighting. Lack of confirmation does not imply refutation.) And this doesn't even take into account the long history of other credible sightings that have never been disproved. (Maybe there is one, but I know of no other bird that has ever had such a history of claims but was nonetheless regarded by so many as extinct.)
Like so many of the skeptics Sibley et.al. try to give themselves an out toward the end by stating, "
Ivory-billed woodpeckers may persist in the southern United States, and we believe that conservation efforts on their behalf should continue..." -- if the bird is found this will allow them to wriggle and say that they never claimed the bird was extinct, only that they wanted to see better evidence. Maybe... but under the circumstances, it sounds a bit disingenuous, considering the harm their criticism may beget.Their time would have been better spent in the field looking for the species rather than analyzing a single video and creating a lot of sound and fury signifying little.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday, March 15, 2006

-- Keep The Faith --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
New news is somewhat slow and I'm again hearing some grumbling among the ranks out there, so I'll pause a moment to persist in preaching the policy of patience with a capital P!! While solid definitive evidence remains elusive, there are continual rumors of either visual or auditory IBWO encounters out of Florida and S. Carolina, and M. Collins continues his endeavors in Louisiana as well. With Cornell's tight grip over news releases in Arkansas it is difficult to know exactly what if anything may be happening there until well after the fact. Searching also underway in Texas and Georgia. In short, IBWO buzz is on the increase (as would be expected this time of season) not the decrease, and come May we should have some better idea what all has been found this first search season. If some want to call it 'faith-based ornithology,' then hey, keep the faith folks! Amen...

On a completely unrelated but entertaining, upbeat note, deep in the jungle of Manhattan both Pale Male and Lola, and Pale Male Jr. and mate Charlotte (NY city's FAMOUS Red-tailed Hawks) are currently actively nesting high up in their concrete townhouses -- NOT something, by the way, that any PhD. ornithologist would've believed or predicted awhile back. ; - )
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, March 12, 2006

-- Think Of It This Way... --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is a post for the skeptics out there... Suppose you come and tell me you saw a Summer Tanager in your backyard, and I say no you didn't, you saw a Cardinal. Next week you tell me you saw the Summer Tanager again, and I say you're mistaken it was more likely a Cardinal. Eventually you bring me a photograph, I say you doctored it, it was originally a photo of a Cardinal. You bring me a video, I say it was taken in another state, not in your backyard; when your 2 birding friends see it with you, I call it 'groupthink' -- nothing you say or show me can 'prove' you've ever had a Summer Tanager in your backyard -- on the 20th occasion of you're reporting a Tanager, I say, how in the hell can I believe you when you've given me 19 false, mistaken, unconfirmed, or doctored reports in the past. In simplistic terms this is essentially the scenario with the Ivory-billed Woodpecker over decades, earlier unconfirmed reports becoming a priori a basis for discounting future reports. It is nothing less than an unrecognized close-minded form of circular or self-fulfilling-prophesizing, or self-reinforcing groupthink, if you prefer. It's amazing that in popular press skeptics still get away with saying the Ivory-bill hasn't been seen for 60 years when all the evidence indicates otherwise. Again I'll reiterate that the potential damage already done by overblown skepticism (and the stigmatization that follows) far exceeds any potential damage from overblown optimism -- we're talking about the life or death of a species here!
In the meantime, many of those same skeptics will be running around in a few weeks doing "spring bird counts" and generating some of the most wholly imprecise and non-valid data to be published anywhere in biological science. But so be it. (I don't want to get into a debate here about the meaningfulness of notoriously poor-quality single-day count data, but simply find it interesting that skeptics will so persistently aim their scientific guns at Ivory-bill sightings, while giving other common birding activities a free pass.)

On a different note, a BirdForum poster has called attention to the following article on prospects for the Ivory-bill in Alabama:

http://www.al.com/printer/printer.ssf?/base/sports/1142158807270070.xml&coll=1
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, March 11, 2006

-- M. Collins Endorsement --

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For what it might be worth to some, Rob Tymstra, a Canadian birder and cinematographer who recently ran into Mike Collins in the Pearl, just wrote the following endorsement of Mike's efforts in a BirdForum post:

" .... I wanted to throw in a vote of confidence for what Mike's doing in the Pearl. I had the good fortune and delight to actually meet and paddle around the Pearl with Mike. Having met with him on a number of occasions, I can vouch for the fact that he is a reliable and reputable level-headed observer in full command of all of his faculties! He’s persistent and dedicated to the cause of finding and preserving IBWO. Mike’s a competent birder, scientist, and student of nature. He’s also personable and has a good sense of humor and was very generous with sharing information. On top of that, I got to see his intriguing video with personal commentary. If anyone can find this bird, it’s Mike. Give him some support folks!"

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- More of Same...? --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mary Scott is reporting another IBWO sighting along the "Mississippi flyway" but without much comment or info:
http://www.birdingamerica.com/Ivorybill/ivorybilledwoodpecker.htm

Unfortunately, skeptics have promoted their viewpoint so well at this point, that these reports of Ivory-bills without details or video are becoming meaningless to many at this point (and there are always more reports floating around than those that show up on the internet). Maybe Mike Collins will be able to get better video in La. or have other credible observers confirm his find before he departs the region. With about 45 days remaining in the prime search season time's a'movin in Ar., La, Ms., Fl., S.C., Tx., Ga.....
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday, March 08, 2006

-- Ivory-bill Habitat --

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bill Pulliam has been diligently, patiently employing Terraserver to search out areas of Ivory-bill potential in the 9 primary southern search states. He has now summarized his results at his website below. Good reading (especially if you live in one of these states):

http://bbill.blogspot.com/2006/03/potential-ivory-billed-woodpecker.html

This is just one person's attempt operating from a computer screen -- as he indicates in his post Bill won't mind hearing ideas from other folks directly familiar with these areas; if you think he's left a prime locale out somewhere let him know, or included an area that actually is much poorer, inadequate habitat than might appear on Terraserver, let him know that. The importance of such surveys (besides suggesting areas of interest) I think is in conveying just how much potential little-explored habitat is out there which easily explains how this species could stay out of frequent sight for 60 years and still be with us.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, March 06, 2006

-- Congaree --

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
A nice article on the Ivory-bill search now underway in the Congaree National Park of S.C.:

http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/14027457.htm
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, March 05, 2006

-- Jaded or What??? --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Over the years there have been 100's of Ivory-bill reports turned in, including outright hoaxes, innumerable mis-identifications, and many simply unconfirmable claims. With the advent of the internet any such report can now shoot around the birding community in lightening speed. But with all the current controversy have we now arrived at such a jaded "boy who cried wolf" state that sightings no longer command much attention unless accompanied by a close-up/clearcut photo or video???
I ask because I confess to being surprised at the paucity of interest shown across the Web in Mike Collins' Pearl River IBWO claims, especially the lack of coverage on the Louisiana and Mississippi Bird listserv groups (instead there have been a few harsh, caustic comments)? Because of previous historical IBWO claims for the Pearl and the Stennis region it makes sense for this area to be of interest, and one would think many involved with the unsuccessful 2002 Pearl search in particular would love to see that past effort vindicated. Are individuals who might otherwise show an interest simply too involved with the current Arkansas endeavor to divert attention to Louisiana right now? Or has the lack of minute detail in Mike's accounts hurt his credibility? The video is weak and ambiguous, but on close examination has enticing elements, or do doubters find it worthless??? Or, is there possibly more interest/activity being shown locally in the area than I am aware of?
I'd be interested to hear (either comment section or email) from folks, especially those closest to the scene in LA. and MS., as to the seeming shallow degree of follow-up to Mike's report, or correct me if there IS more happening -- (and I don't want simplistic verbal slamming of Mike, just civil, thoughtful opinions, please).

Here, BTW, is another one of Mike's ('cinclodes') posts from BirdForum this weekend:

http://www.birdforum.net/showpost.php?p=540235&postcount=3080
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, March 04, 2006

-- Georgia --

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Georgia and Alabama don't get as much publicity for potential Ivory-bill habitat as other southern states, yet both are almost certainly possibilities. The following article reports on plans that have received Federal funding for an upcoming search of Georgia's Okefenokee Swamp, likely the bird's last known habitat in the state. Interestingly, it is also suggested that searchers will be on the lookout for Bachman's Warbler, another presumed extinct species -- it has often been suggested previously that ANYone searching for Ivory-bills should be on the listen and lookout for the Bachman's which formerly shared the IBWO's habitat.

http://www.macon.com/mld/macon/news/local/13995061.htm?source=rss&channel=macon_local

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, March 03, 2006

-- Ultralight Use --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interesting article here on the employment of ultralights in the Big Woods area to fly over and attempt to flush/photograph Ivory-bills from above (an idea initiated some time back by Bob Russell of U.S. Fish & Wildlife).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, March 02, 2006

-- Cornell Update --

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cornell has posted another update on their IBWO site, quoting AR. Deputy Sec. of the Interior Lynn Scarlett as thanking Cornell for helping "confirm the sighting of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker," and mentioning the $2+ million of Federal funds that the recovery effort may get for the new fiscal year beginning next Oct. 1.

http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory/latest/DOIgrants

Another recent news article on the search is here:

http://www.arktimes.com/Articles/ArticleViewer.aspx?ArticleID=9da2f0c9-8471-4e92-9ba1-e5046e194b23

In the meantime, Cornell's Ron Rohrbaugh is scheduled to speak tonight in Annapolis, Md. on Cornell's findings, and Jerry Jackson, who has recently searched in both Florida and Arkansas, will be speaking in Memphis, TN. on March 15.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday, March 01, 2006

-- Ivory-bill Art --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you're into both Ivory-bills AND art, Mary Scott is now offering at her site the long-promised print by artist Wil Goebel commemorating Mary's 2003 sighting of an Arkansas IBWO
($175, approximate size 22" x 34):

http://www.birdingamerica.com/goebelprint.htm
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Mike Collins Update --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mike Collins has possibly another month or so to explore in the Pearl River area, while working at nearby Stennis Space Center -- he continues to post occasional updates at his own webpage, where he has also summarized all his February Ivory-bill encounters to this point (or, if you want to view his many world birding reports over the last 10+ years go here.) This recent entry (response) of his ("Cinclodes") on BirdForum, describing search techniques, is also worth reading.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday, February 28, 2006

-- Zickefoose Cover Art --

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Julie Zickefoose's blog today has a final installment describing how she completed her painting of an Ivory-bill for the cover of the Jan. "Auk" issue. I guess the only question remaining is whether her bird is flying over the Cache River or the Pearl!???

http://www.juliezickefoose.com/blog/2006/02/everything-but-bird.html
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, February 27, 2006

-- March SCIENCE --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rumor has it that one of the upcoming March issues of Science Magazine will carry the long awaited/postponed rebuttal by David Sibley et.al. to Cornell's original IBWO Science article, and one would assume to the latest online Luneau film analysis as well. Indeed it will be interesting to see just how much time is spent in rebuttal of the film clip, which I still consider to be of only tangential importance anyway, versus the rest of Cornell's body of evidence.
At least the month ahead probably won't be boring... and the phrase "March Madness" just might refer to more than b-ball this year!!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------