— No Resolutions, Just Idle Predictions —

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Even though I still believe (for old, simple reasons I won’t even elaborate on) small pockets of Ivory-bills yet exist (in multiple locales, no less) I'm discouraged at the current state-of-affairs, and will make a few dismal, purely speculative, predictions for the year ahead (based solely on the experiences/patterns of the last 15 years, which have a way of repeating themselves)… would be nice though if every one of them proves WRONG:

1)  The USFWS will proceed to declare the Ivory-bill extinct, and by mid-year the current blip up in IBWO interest will once again die down... With that said, I will mention that I think Chris Haney's recent volume, "Woody's Last Laugh" is the strongest argument for delaying any such declaration and perhaps putting off any USFWS decision for at least 6 months (will say more about this surprising volume in a few days).

2)  My guess though is that no truly significant, persuasive evidence (meaning authenticated photo or video) will emerge in those 6 months… :(

3)  Within the next year there will be at least one major hoax attempted. I mean, hey, we're overdue for one! (...and not the crappy-level ones I get sent to me in email!)

(I think there’s still at least a $10,000 reward outstanding, maybe even the old $50,000 reward, for anyone successfully leading authorities to living Ivory-bills -- the key word being "living," ohh, and "ivory-bills" ;)).

As I've previously said, with so much recent/renewed IBWO publicity, bogus 'sightings' from novices may also once again flourish over next 6 months.

4)  David Sibley won't report any Ivory-bill encounters in 2022. 😏

Hope I don’t have to come back next December with even worse predictions! Oy. (...and with all that said, I do have slightly, ever-so slightly, more hope for the second half of the year than the first half).

British sorts have a word for those of us who keep the IBWO story going... and... going. They call us "stringers" for stringing people along indefinitely... because, well, it's easy enough to do... hope in the next year to focus primarily only on any actual significant new visual evidence (sightings/photo/video) of the species' persistence, and ignore most of the other chatter that will continue on (though might get dragged into some other matters, or if something truly fresh and interesting comes along). There are, and may continue to be, some very nice overview articles coming forth (helpful for newbies on the subject), but feels like walking forever in circles or treading water to report on them, so won't be citing. 

In any event, do have a productive, and hopefully healthy, year ahead everyone.... (but maybe hold expectations in check; we've been down the road of promising claims and over-anticipation enough times already).

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— Verbal Reports... Just Sayin' —

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Over the last few years some of the IBWO sightings sent to me have come from correspondents explaining they sent the same info to Cornell, but all they got back was a message essentially saying, ‘nice, write us back when you have a photo or video’… or, from their standpoint, simply saying ‘bugoff’. They think they’ll get a more positive response from me… but, usually don’t. I mention all this just to say I feel I’m in good company requesting that clear, indisputable photo/video be produced. 

Most verbal reports I get are disappointingly weak… and un-detailed. In 15 years I think I’ve only had 2 (or at most 3) reports I sent along to other authorities, thinking they might find them interesting. Sometimes claimants (who I find unconvincing) are adamant though about seeing IBWOs, so I direct them to an Audubon member or even ornithologist in their nearby area to tell their story to… I never hear from them again. Or if their report is just too un-detailed to give a yay or nay to, I’ll send back a list of questions… and usually never hear from them again either, or the answers sent back make it clear they did NOT see an IBWO. And there are the folks who write to happily inform me they saw an Ivory-bill in or near their very backyard… in Vermont or Massachusetts or Oregon. And those who know they saw an Ivory-bill, but turns out even after all this time, they’ve never heard of a Pileated Woodpecker. Then there are the yearly postings on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, Reddit and wherever claiming to have spotted IBWOs. In short, the vast majority of IBWO reports are poor at best (some even clearcut hoaxes), and it is little wonder that skeptics have tired of the whole affair by now. I've already warned that the recent publicity for IBWO will almost surely generate yet a new rash of mistaken identities. 

BUT the thing is, it doesn’t matter if dozens or hundreds of IBWO claims are worthless; it only matters if 1 or 2 (or more) are correct. One simply cannot generalize from all the bad reports to ALL reports, no matter how logical or tempting that may seem. So onward we trudge. I’ll have a final post for the year (and some dismal predictions!) in a few days. 

(On a more positive note, in early January, I’ll say some things about Chris Haney’s wonderful recent volume, “Woody’s Last Laugh,” a book that I regard as a surprising breath of fresh air amidst all of this, and that Mark Michaels calls "the most important book on the ivorybill since Tanner.")

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— Seeing Is Not (necessarily) Believing —

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One of the amazing things to witness when the Luneau video first came out was how quickly, equally experienced, skilled, reputable birders/ornithologists came to utterly divergent conclusions: i.e. the bird was clearly a normal Pileated Woodpecker in escape flight, or no, the bird was potentially/probably an IBWO, and certainly NOT a Pileated. Any cognitive scientist will tell you how weak human vision, and especially brief looks, is as a basis for firm conclusions… indeed, many a criminal trial has hinged on eyewitness testimony that later proved simply erroneous.

Anyway, there are thousands of great optical illusions, demonstrating the clear shortcomings of human vision. Here’s a big handful of some faves:

https://twitter.com/Woofkoof/status/1467904569279762440

https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1117597108259831808

https://twitter.com/TechAmazing/status/1335798167661662212

https://twitter.com/raastech/status/571203109919305728

https://twitter.com/sinix777/status/1384916614202679298

https://twitter.com/moreisdifferent/status/1445583175678238724

https://twitter.com/BrianRoemmele/status/1465919065998782469

https://twitter.com/rajdeep_baral/status/1308711678553415681

https://twitter.com/ThePoke/status/820926823479513088

https://twitter.com/RafaelCruzG11/status/372933866807230464

https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1470506334126628866

https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1467063629564448770

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWfFco7K9v8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNGg2arYDe0

With all that said, nevertheless I've consistently long-felt that short of clearcut photographic/video evidence, the only IBWO evidence that's very persuasive to me are sightings claims (preferably not brief or distant) from experienced, knowledgeable observers (which remain few-and-far-between). As weak or distrustful as such claims can be, the other evidence proposed for IBWO presence is yet far weaker, reminiscent of Loch-Ness-Monster evidence (...though DNA evidence, if ever found, could be interesting).

It is especially devastating that despite millions of frames shot by automatic remote cameras (which have issues, but not the flaws/constraints of human observers) focused on cavities, foraging sites, and flyways not one single IBWO has been captured in years of effort. As others have suggested, perhaps Ivorybills actually reside in points A and C but we are only repeatedly looking in point B where they briefly traverse/disperse through on occasion… or, of course, perhaps they simply exist no more. The beat goes on….

(I have 4 or 5 more postings I'm considering between now and end of January, but after that it could be a slow year here at the blog.)

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-- Monday Night Discussion --

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Slightly short notice, but for his upcoming Monday Zoom broadcast (this Monday night, 8pm EST) Matt Courtman is planning to return with Mike Collins and inviting any skeptics/critics of Mike’s work to come on board with their questions/concerns, especially in regards to Mike’s o-o-old “fly under” video which was extensively discussed in last week’s Monday Zoom.

There are several reasons (I believe) why that video, and other of Mike’s work, has never gained much traction, but this is a chance for skeptics to weigh in — I would encourage them to do so, despite their likely fear of how quickly any discussion will deteriorate, but I think Matt is trying to be an honest broker in opening the platform to competing views (while granted he has definite positive view). The invitation comes at the end of this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1rnK24F7RY

I’d especially encourage those who have followed Mike’s claims for years (actually, well over a decade) and are already very familiar with his arguments and videos to engage… but certainly those who only more recently learned of his work can join in as well.

You can check Matt’s FB site here:

https://www.facebook.com/MissionIvorybill  

OR, this FB page will have a Zoom link on Monday:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368

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-- Holiday Shopping --

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Given the delays in mail and shipping this year, it’s almost getting too late for Xmas shopping (or Festivus, as the case may be), but if you are still looking for something for that beloved Ivory-bill addict (including yourself) here’s a couple of nice T-shirts (I have no connection to either product):

https://www.redbubble.com/i/t-shirt/Audubon-s-Ivory-Billed-Woodpeckers-by-nefaeryous/18126986.1YYVU

https://www.amazon.com/Ivory-Billed-Woodpecker-America-T-Shirt/dp/B07N7Z9H5M?customId=B07537TZ66&th=1

There are plenty of other choices at places like Cafepress and Zazzle, as well as at Amazon. And of course Ivory-bill books, mugs, prints, artwork, trinkets etc.etc. can be found as well.

Merry shopping….

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— Intermission —

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Not for everybody, but while biding time, just a 6-year-old essay on mathematics here:

https://jornbettin.com/2015/04/01/the-antidote-to-misuse-of-mathematics-and-junk-data/

…and then utterly changing the subject and mood, here’s Terry Gross interviewing Mel Brooks this week on "Fresh Air":

https://www.npr.org/2021/12/07/1061836388/mel-brooks-all-about-me

...finally, so as not to drop a post entirely devoid of IBWO references, here's Connecticut woodcarver Keith Mueller on Facebook showing off some of his recent gorgeous work:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/4857237337630991/

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-- Streamlining --

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For the last 2 years I’ve wanted to update/streamline the cluttered left-hand column of the blog, but with interest lagging in this whole topic lacked the energy to do so. Interest has perked up slightly since the USFWS announcement so finally found the time this weekend to eliminate a lot of links (especially dead ones). If any of the ones I’ve scratched prove particularly useful in months to come I’ll reinstate. Especially sorry to remove the IBWO Researchers Forum which seems to now be defunct (if someone knows otherwise let me know; they have suffered long downtimes previously, but this one seems permanent?).

I have added the British BirdForum.net site, since if there is any significant IBWO news to come it will likely be well-covered and debated at that forum, which probably had the most significant, wide-ranging (not always pleasant) debate of any site, early-on, over the evidence Cornell originally brought to light (indeed, if I remember correctly, it was some of the vitriol at that site that led to IBWO Researchers Forum being formed!).

I've also added one two of the Ivory-bill Facebook sites which tend to be somewhat active (though, like many, I despise Facebook!... but one can't avoid it these days, and it is effective at spreading ideas/news, even if much of it needs to be taken with a grain of salt).

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-- Waiting Game --

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Am getting a small assortment of inquiries lately that I don’t have the time or energy to reply to in detail, so will simply respond to in a general way:

1)  No, I don't expect the USFWS to alter their recommendation to de-list the IBWO, though it is possible they'll postpone a decision long enough that perhaps fresh, persuasive evidence will come to light (though I’m not expecting anything significant soon). USFWS is likely very aware of most all the prevailing evidence from the last decade+ (not to mention the century prior), none of which will likely sway their opinion... but, hey, I've been surprised before, and always a slim chance that sheer public pressure, and not conservation issues, might cause them to alter their stance.

  

2)  People are sending me various articles, links, news stories, etc., because so much IBWO-related material has arisen lately (that I don’t report on). These are almost always things I’m aware of, but don’t post about because the content is either old, redundant, or simply weak.

Folks can continue sending things in (I’d still rather have 10 people send me something I already know about, than miss out on something that might be new to me); just know that if I don’t use something you send in, it doesn’t mean I didn’t receive or appreciate the email, but it simply didn’t pass a certain threshold of significance. But yeah, lots of nice retrospective articles out there.

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