-- Continuing... --

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For anyone not following along over there, "Dave in Michigan" (this is NOT Dave Nolin as I initially printed) at BirdForum (different from IBWO Forum, I know this gets confusing) has posted the latest Pearl video as a series of GIFs here:

http://www.birdforum.net/attachment.php?attachmentid=227512&d=1257733025

Of course, you lose the sense of flight pattern/style/speed etc. but some may find these views very helpful... or it may confuse the issue even more, depending on your point-of-view.

And he posts some animated gifs here:

http://www.birdforum.net/showpost.php?p=1640468&postcount=13974

Thanks for the good work Dave...

If you want to follow along the discussion over there you can start around here:

http://www.birdforum.net/showthread.php?p=1640468#post1640468

Addendum: I might further note that that good British bloke Dr. Martin Collinson (who we haven't heard much from for awhile) did check into BirdForum long enough to say he would be looking over the videos more closely as well and probably offering an opinion at some point.
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-- Where To Now??? --

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Mike C. has additionally eliminated the Nov. 5 video bird from contention as an Ivory-bill (another Red-headed Woodpecker? -- Addendum: Mike now doubts the likelihood of this bird being a RHWO; other suggestions have also been made; I suspect continuing analysis may reach some general consensus but still not be definitive; just my guess. And I assume Mike will leave the clip up and available while that debate continues; the Nov. 3 (with RT Hawk...) clip seems to have been taken down from consideration).

For a range of reasons far too many to delineate (and only some of which have anything to do with the latest Pearl episode), I'm rapidly moving to the view that there are NO Ivory-bills residing in the Pearl (possibly some in central La. or southwestern Mississippi that might occasionally stray through the Pearl, but none residing). The Pearl has been combed over extensively in the last decade by good birders, and I believe the conclusion of Cornell, Fish and Wildlife, and most competent, experienced Louisiana birders is that the species IS NOT there. As always, my mind is open to be changed with new evidence, but I find no evidence from the last 4 years even close to persuasive (and I won't take the time to summarize what has transpired in the last week of hyperbole and miscues).

Those who have only entered this story since Cornell's 2005 announcement, now should have a greater appreciation for why there are so many strongly-inclined skeptics. What we have witnessed in the last 4 years is so reminiscent of what occurred over and over for 50 years prior. Nothing new here, just the same story of claims made and claims unverified that repeats and repeats and repeats and repeats. Various individuals through the 50's, 60's, 70's really did painstaking followups to most of the better claims back then (as painstaking, as single individuals or small groups could do), and came up empty. They must be shaking their heads back and forth in a knowing fashion now, maybe chuckling under their breath (while also sad at these outcomes), and feeling deja vu, deja vu, deja vu. This story has never ended as wished in 60+ years. That's the bad news.

Having said all that, people need to realize that before 2004 there was not major interest in the Big Woods, the Choctawhatchee, or the Pearl as potential home for IBWO (a few individuals voiced interest in parts of the Big Woods, but basically none of these areas would've made any typical Top 10 list for IBWO potential, in say 2003). So even eliminating all these areas from interest now (if one chose to do so), still leaves historically-promising areas in contention: Apalachicola/Chipola, Atchafalaya, Pascagoula, Congaree, and several others. I'll await to see what the final official report has to say about such long-time locales of interest (and some newer locales as well). Can any (or all?) now be eliminated? Are certain ones especially deserving of additional special attention? Can they be rank-ordered in some meaningful way for future searchers, or will we, after four years, just be handed the same laundry-list of places that were already known, before $10 million was spent?
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-- A Side Note --

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In a comment below (prior post), "spatuletail" inquires about the "wingbeat frequency" in the videos....

However, a problem with the measurement of flaps, speeds etc. is that we have little good historical basis or data on the Ivory-billed Woodpecker for comparison, so it all quickly becomes highly speculative. But moreover, there is no such thing, for example, as A cruising speed for a bird; there are cruising speeds; it depends on too many variables. Is it really cruising or is it being chased (or spooked) or chasing something; is it flying into the wind or with the wind; is it flying long distance or from one branch to another 30 yards away; is it flying above the trees or through the forest; is it sick or injured or tired or well; is it a young juvenile or a gravid female; is it hungry or full; and on and on. These are living, breathing creatures, not marbles on a tabletop that can be easily calculated and predicted. Yes, there are physical constraints that will put a defined range on what, for example the "flap rate" of a given bird might be, but the variables are many and complex, and just a couple of values mis-calculated slightly at the beginning of the process can result in a final computed value that is considerably off.

Don't misunderstand, I'm all for every technical analysis at our disposal being employed and thrown into the mix on these things. Just saying many of them have to be taken with a huge non-definitive grain of salt. It is why, for me, the evidence I've weighed most heavily over the years are sightings from knowledgeable, capable observers who feel certain they've seen an Ivory-billed Woodpecker (and, yes, those too can be mistaken), rather than the evidentiary material that comes from any after-the-fact analysis or hindsight, involving a myriad of intervening variables.
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-- Update... --

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Mike's newest clip is up here (thanks Emupilot for the heads-up):

http://www.fishcrow.com/flight5nov09.mp4

But worth reading his 11-7 entry [http://www.fishcrow.com/winter10.html], where he's now discounting, on the basis of size, the clip which I previously considered his most interesting one (prior post). And I don't believe there's much chance the "gliding" bird clip will be reviewed as an IBWO-contender either. So that leaves just the "flushed" bird clip (I don't think it's determinable, but just my personal opinion), and now the new video, which once again has tantalizing frames, but also I think has significant issues. I suspect most will recognize the traits that are IBWO-like in this footage, so once again I'm really more interested in hearing from the skeptical side what is NOT IBWO-like in this bird, and what alternatives you favor (and no longer need to respond to the prior clip which I had focused on).
(Mike is altering his log entries BTW, and this could make it difficult/confusing to follow this story if you entered late and read other people's previous references to his various posts over the last few days, which he's now re-written.)
Again, I'm seeing less and less here to get excited over, but still willing to be convinced otherwise.
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-- Just Wonderin' --

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It seems likely that the bird flying leftward through the gap is the most interesting of the clips Mike has thus far posted (more interesting clips may yet appear):

enlarged version: http://www.fishcrow.com/1stclip3nov09b.mp4

original (with RT Hawk in left foreground): http://www.fishcrow.com/1stclip3nov09a.mp4

and a zoomed, slowed-down version via "Dave in Michigan" over at BirdForum:

http://www.birdforum.net/attachment.php?attachmentid=227238&d=1257613351

There is probably room for debate over the size of this bird, and of course leucism or plumage mutation can never be completely ruled out, but putting those things aside (and assuming the film authentic), I'd be curious to hear specifically from "skeptics" what alternative takes on the clip they might have? Anyone of course is free to comment below, but honestly I'm especially interested to hear interpretations/comments from doubters (if there are even any skeptics who still read this blog ;-))...

(Possibly an upcoming post from Mike will make the above clip moot, or my same question may then apply to the new clip.)
p.s. --- if you are unable to use the "comments" section, feel free to email your thoughts to me; just let me know if they are for my eyes only, or can be transferred to the comments section under an "anonymous" or other heading.

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-- Joyously Alive???? --

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http://www.fishcrow.com/winter10.html

I'll try to leave the direct link to Mike's journal page near the blog top (for easy access) while this whole episode or process plays itself out (and I have no idea how long that will take, nor am I convinced that a consensus resolution on Mike's videos will be attained... but we can keep our fingers crossed).

To head into the weekend, just some words from Julie Zickefoose written 10 years ago at the end of a 'Bird Watcher's Digest' piece on the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (long before the whole Arkansas story even broke):

"We've sent it [IBWO] countless messages with our saws and our columns of smoke. Leave or die out. Find somewhere else to live. This land is our land, now. And it just doesn't listen to us; it goes on, somewhere, I have to believe it; not dead, but missing in action; alive, defiantly, desperately, joyously, alive. No one can tell me I'm wrong, and, it seems, no one can tell me I'm right. There are those of us who cannot let it go."

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-- The Story That Won't Die --

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Tennessee conclusions: More final wrap-up thoughts from Bill Pulliam on the Tennessee experience, in what appears to be his next-to-last post in the series:

http://bbill.blogspot.com/2009/11/global-big-picture.html

Maybe something else will come along to pique readers' interest in the meantime... :-)

....Hits at the blog spiked considerably the last 24 hours --- even at this late date, despite all the naysayers and folks who've abandoned this saga, any glimmer of a new prospective video of the Ghost Bird ripples excitation through the ranks --- it says something wonderful about hope and the impact of this marvelous bird on the human psyche! But we've been down this road before (many many times), and may be best to restrain expectations until some dust settles.
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-- Intermission --

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Fantastic footage of a Peruvian crested woodpecker attacked by a large green tree snake at a nestsite(?) --- don't know which is more amazing, the snake's speed or the woodpecker's persistence (snake attack begins around the 37-second mark, so you can be ready):



(hat tip to BirdChick for this one)
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-- The Pearl, Once Again --

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For anyone not reading the comments sections here, and thus unaware, Mike C. has posted recent video from the Pearl (La.) which he believes to be of Ivory-bills. Go to this link and scroll down to 11/3 - 11/4 posts:

http://www.fishcrow.com/winter10.html

Certain frames/aspects of the clips are interesting (indeed, the more I watch the more intrigued I am, while also having doubts). We may be headed once again straight into Luneau-video unresolvable la-la land, but will be curious to see what various others have to say, and interested to see what Mike uncovers on follow-up visits to same area (...or has this nomadic bird already moved 5 miles up the road ;-)
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-- Moss Island Musings --

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More Tennessee summary thoughts from Bill P. HERE.

The similarity between the Moss Island experience and that of observers elsewhere is striking. As Bill himself concludes, this "bird moves a LOT." No matter what 'hot zones' searchers establish, when they scour the area with increased people or increased searches, instead of confirming or pinpointing the bird, it seems to just move on. Very odd. Certainly during the nesting season, but even otherwise, one would expect it to have a restricted home base that it would return to every evening if not throughout the day, even while foraging might indeed take it very far afield (if it is feeding young though it must return again and again).
Or must the bird constantly move from place to place for new food resources in diminished and fragmented forest? This persistent lack of repeatability and final confirmation (very unlike other endangered species that are re-discovered) is what understandably drives skeptics nuts. No matter how many or how good the birders, or how often in the field, 'hot zones' just seem to evaporate or move on down the road. Bill attempts to surmise some parameters of the potential bird's behavior, and surmise is all we can do for now.

Again, the only solution seems to be to find an active nest site. And we've already tried human perseverance, skills, technology, and greed ($50,000 rewards ;-)) to do just that. What we seem to need is a copious dose of pure dang luck. It was certainly only luck that put Gene Sparling in a certain place at a certain moment in time to begin this whole affair, and maybe only luck can bring it to the conclusion we wish for... if such a conclusion exists.
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-- Through The Looking Glass --

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Just a long mish-mash of random things a'buggin' me:

1) People keep talking about how poor/inadequate automatic cameras have been in this search... funny thing though, those dicey, poor, crummy, worthless devices DID get decent pics of Pileateds, flickers, songbirds, squirrels along the way... just NO Ivory-bills. I agree the chance of any one camera capturing the bird we want is slim-to-none, but there have been 100's of deployments and millions of pictures by now (which increases that probability signifcantly), and, still, no IBWO... THAT is concerning. Moreover, in truth, I fully expected the advanced ACONE system used in Arkansas, even with all its downtime, to get the bird on film (again, it captured plenty of other identifiable species), but nada.
Still, the lack of a decent photo after 2 years of searches was no big deal; after 3 years disappointing, but still plausible; but after 4 years (and really 5, counting Cornell's initial year-in-secret) it becomes increasingly problematic. Recall too that when Cornell discovered a leucistic Pileated Woodpecker cavorting around the Big Woods, pictures followed in short-order. Things just don't add up well. Even if we have to find a nesthole to get pics... well, 5 years seems like perhaps enough time to have done that... just once, that's all we need. The planning of search procedures, despite flaws, often seem on paper, to make good sense, so what's gone wrong in the execution I'm not sure.

2) Even without technical analysis the bird in the Luneau video always looked to me like an IBWO; or to be more accurate, maybe I should say it looks NON-PIWO-like. BUT, I have to respect the field identification skills of Jerry Jackson and David Sibley --- that both of these individuals can look at that film clip and UNHESITATINGLY perceive a PIWO gives one pause. Their "analysis" of the video means little to me; but their immediate, subjective impression ("gizz" as it were) of this bird as a normal Pileated actually DOES carry weight for me. And that's what they perceived from the get-go, not after extensive consideration or technological manipulations. I've written before that I take the "gizz" of bird identification, from experienced birders, at least as seriously as I take any after-the-fact delineation of field marks from memory. (But again, I don't ultimately regard the Luneau clip as a resolvable, or even important, piece of evidence in this saga; it simply turned into a terrible side distraction.)

3) Most, including Cornell, focus on habitat in trying to decide where to expend energy looking for IBWOs... and so they've focused strongly on South Carolina's Congaree, where possibly the best habitat remains (and credible claims have also been made). I'm slightly less interested in habitat though, and more interested in probabilities... specifically, the probability that a species could hang out in a given area for 60+ years and evade detection. I think it unlikely (though by no means impossible) that IBWOs remain in South Carolina, where they've been looked for extensively over six decades, but much more plausible that they could move back-and-forth along forest and river corridors of the Gulf Coast (La./Miss. to Fla) over that same amount of time and evade human encounter. And as I previously wrote, the possibility of a more northerly population (again with wooded and riverine corridors) between Ark.--Mo.--Illinois--Tenn. (where they were never extensively looked for), also intrigues. Someone still has to convince me that the glimpses and sounds from S.C. are so much better than those from elsewhere as to merit the time and money expended there --- if Ivory-bills are still with us it is almost certainly because their progeny adapted, and DO NOT require the quality of habitat offered in the Congaree.

4) Martjan Lammertink is highly regarded as one of the world's premier experts on woodpeckers, especially large, endangered ones. In 1995 though I was surprised (indeed, incredulous) when he published a paper entitled "No More Hope for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker." It focused on the Cuban Ivory-bill subspecies which he'd concluded was gone, after an unsuccessful search. Yet without any similar extensive search in the U.S., Lammertink was apparently willing to write off the North American Ivory-bill as well, based solely on the views of others who had already concluded such. For someone regarded as a leading expert to proclaim "no more hope" seemed almost irresponsibly loose and premature language. That was odd enough...
But I was even more surprised, 10 years later, when Cornell made their stunning announcement of the Ivory-bill's re-discovery in Arkansas, to see that Lammertink was part of the field team... someone I would've expected to be a skeptic, if there were to be skeptics... someone who's very academic reputation might even be compromised by finding the Ivory-bill alive 10 years after he'd summarily proclaimed it gone. Indeed Lammertink's association with the announcement and field work (his willingness to so publicly alter his view) was one of the many things which I thought lent the claims substantial credibility.
Lammertink never saw the Ivory-bill himself, but after declaring "no hope" for it a decade earlier, now acknowledged very suitable habitat for it in central Arkansas, and apparently became a believer... over the ensuing years as part of Cornell's Mobile Team he found more potentially suitable habitat across the Southeast (although, funny, these were the same locations that had been talked, rumored, and/or written about for six decades --- not like they were ever any huge secret). What a difference 10 years makes, I guess... from zero hope, to a mini-assortment of locales the species just might hang out.

The recent Ivory-bill saga is chock-full of ironies: Lammertink the doubter becoming a believer; Cornell, having done little on behalf of the IBWO since the 40's also becomes a cheerleader only when one of their own, Tim Gallagher, reports seeing it up close and personal. Meanwhile, Jerry Jackson, possibly the Ivory-bill's most vocal advocate for decades becomes among the first serious doubters of the Cornell claims. The best birders and ornithologists in America can't find the bird, yet amateurs do on occasion. Just as Cornell claims for Arkansas are fizzling, an unheard-of Auburn team announces even more IBWO encounters in an out-of-the-way patch of N. Florida... only to then go the same way as the Arkansas findings. The one-time birding gold-standard of repeatable sightings now barely means anything, while people apply physics to fuzzy video to try and convince skeptics. Every other place we look intensely, or so it seems, putative sounds and scrapings materialize as if by magic, but the 20" Houdini bird itself eludes us. It's almost as if we've stepped into some topsy-turvy, Alice-in-Wonderland Through-the-Looking-Glass-World... I thought I knew my way, but am now feeling less than sure-footed... and half-expect to run into the Red Queen any day now.

None of this means I think the Ivory-bill gone; indeed, for now, I'm persuaded of its presence (even as my confidence level shrinks)... I'm just less certain than ever, where, in what numbers, and for how much longer....
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-- Two Options... --

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As he begins wrapping up his blog series on the search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker in Tennessee, Bill Pulliam explains why he whittles down the mystery double-knock sounds from western TN. to just two woodpeckers... and why Pileated just doesn't seem to fit:

http://bbill.blogspot.com/2009/10/mystery-remains.html
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-- "Sightings" (Sam Keen) --

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It occurs to me, as a sidenote, with this extended coverage of the Tennessee search, that it might be fitting to make mention of author Sam Keen's tale from his small 2007 volume "Sightings," recounting a childhood experience from 1942 near Pikeville, Tennessee, of witnessing the possible shooting of an Ivory-billed Woodpecker by young hunters ("The Lord God Bird," next-to-last chapter of the book). Pikeville is in Bledsoe County (eastern TN.) FAR from the western locale of Bill Pulliam's activities, and though the storyline is true, Keen makes no pretense that his childhood memory of the bird possibly being an Ivory-bill (rather than a Pileated) has any strong credibility to it... but hey, still an interesting read, as is the rest of the slim volume of birding experiences.

ADDENDUM: Someone has asked if I could elaborate on the story Keen tells since they don't have access to his book... I hesitate to even lend it that much attention, but briefly...: as an 11-year-old birdwatcher in 1942 living near Knoxville, and enamored with the story of the Ivory-bill, Keen makes the acquaintance of a 17-year-old girl who tells him that the swamps around her home near Pikeville have Ivory-bills --- and she continues to insist so after he explains about the look-alike Pileated Woodpecker. Over an Easter vacation he gets to visit her home and venture into the woods with her squirrel-hunting brothers who, knowing of his interest in seeing an IBWO, spot one and shoot it for him. The rest is a bit of a blur... he retrieves the bird and takes some of its feathers for his collection but buries the badly-damaged carcass, uncertain which species it is, both thrilled by the idea it could be an IBWO, yet trembling at the thought that he might be complicit in the needless death of such a creature. In retrospect (the story was composed more than 60 years after the incident), Keen affirms he thinks that the bird was almost certainly a Pileated, but still has that gnawing question of what if?
(Pikeville, BTW, is not near any known prior historically-established population of IBWO.)
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-- More Spectrographic Analytics --

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Bill Pulliam's further analysis of Tennessee double-knocks, putting him somewhat at odds with Cornell's conclusions of same, here:

http://bbill.blogspot.com/2009/10/bass-notes.html
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-- Weekend Update --

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Nothing new revealed, but a brief audiocast of a recent Arkansas radio segment HERE summarizing the Ivory-bill search to date.

Bill P. continues his discussion/analysis of double-knocks in the Tennessee hinterlands HERE. It's not clear to me that Cornell has ever taken the Tennessee (or Illinois) data very seriously... in fact, it's not clear to me that overall they've taken any data except from South Carolina and Arkansas very seriously. Arkansas by now seems a bust (you know something is a bust when it's no longer referenced in direct mail fundraising ;-) --- though still worthy of independents making an effort there, and we'll have to wait and see how much of the S. Carolina evidence officials deem worthy of bringing to public attention. They'll no doubt politely acknowledge possibilities in several other states; just not sure their interest extends beyond the polite stage.

The above radio show says Cornell will now "focus and take stock" of the data they have on hand... for further publications. And no doubt they will... the question is, will they tell us anything of significance we haven't already known or surmised for a long time.
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-- But Does It Make You Cross-eyed? --

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From the "What-will-they-think-of-next" Dept.:



(...now if someone would just come up with an imitation sweet-gum tree costume, full of Cerambycid beetles.)
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-- Pondering Sonograms --

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Bill Pulliam's latest post begins some ongoing technical analysis of the curious Tennessee sounds.

We now have recent recordings of plausible IBWO sounds from at least Arkansas, Florida, South Carolina, and Tennessee, and possibly a couple other states. What are the chances that after 60+ years of hide-and-seek there still remain small populations of Ivory-bills in 4 or more such disparate locales!?? Hard to fathom; VERY hard... If the bird is hanging on by a thread in such multiple locations, then some bright 20-something out there will need to do a PhD. dissertation that re-writes what we thought we knew about population dynamics. Could there be a 'central' primary locale of IBWO habitation from which the other locales are populated via juvenile dispersion?... virtually impossible to conceive of. What to make of the accumulated evidence then; is it all good, or all equally wretched?

Skeptics will disagree, but I also find it hard to fathom that ALL the recorded sounds, not to even mention all sightings, are bogus (non-IBWO), and if the truth lies somewhere in-between (most sounds bogus, but some from real, living Ivory-bills), then apparently we have no sure, clear-cut technological way to tease out the real from the unreal. Quite a dilemma. Does all of this gathered data do nothing but indicate just how unreliable and unreal the data is (are IBWO sounds a dime-a-dozen if you just run enough recording equipment over enough time in enough patches of woodland?), or does it show how amateurish our techniques are when it comes to tracking cavity-dwelling birds of the deep forest upper canopies? After five years the questions seem more pervasive instead of less-so. And I fear we'll have no more answers when an official final report is issued.

...Don't mean to be redundant, but want to again thank Bill P. for the thoughtful ongoing account of the Tennessee happenings which have instilled some interest in an otherwise boring summer for Ivory-bill news. And again I wish folks from South Carolina, or maybe other locales, were more willing to publicly air certain of their experiences, but, so be it. (They seem to fail to comprehend the benefits of 'open access' while neglecting to realize that silence is perceived in many quarters as a sign of no results worth considering.)
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-- Ghost Bird, Indeed --

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Bill Pulliam recounts a March 2009 morning of double-knocks in western Tennessee HERE (depending on your sound system, the DKs, especially the first two, can be difficult to hear). More analysis will likely follow.

Meanwhile, "Ghost Bird," the movie, continues its showings across the country, picking up awards along the way....

I've lost count of how many examples of possible Ivory-bill double-knocks and kents are now available to hear on the Web, let alone how many total have been reported by intelligent observers over the last 5 years. Such sounds are necessary or at least valuable backup and support for claims that the Ivory-bill has been seen in recent times... but they are not sufficient by themselves as evidence for the presence of the species. The fact is that both "kents" and double-knocks are simple enough sounds that they can be simulated by other sources, and are not clearly diagnostic for Ivory-bills alone. Worse yet, we have very little historical record of Ivory-bill sounds to even base careful scientific comparison upon (no Ivory-bill double-knock recordings and just one small sampling of kent sounds recorded in a single location, at a single time period -- really very little to go on). Nor am I convinced that one can even consistently discern through analysis, mechanical or man-made sounds from bird or nature sounds. DKs in particular can vary tremendously depending on the type, age, and condition of wood. Wind and weather conditions, and obviously distance are also confounding factors; and even different recording devices may introduce different variables into the mix.

In the course of Ivory-bill searches we need to hear double-knocks and kents, find foraging signs/bark stripping and old cavities, and... above all, to tie it all together, have sightings --- clear, unobstructed (even if brief) sightings by credible observers on the ground... in those very same areas of curious sounds. Without sightings of the bird in the flesh, or feather as-it-were, the rest of the evidence pales, even as it intrigues.

I continue to put faith in certain visual reports of the past, as well as more recent times, as indication of Ivory-bill presence. Meanwhile, stung by critics early on in this saga, official agencies have become very conservative in publicizing sighting claims over the last couple years. Also early on, skeptics warned that sending dozens of people into the field with hopes/anticipation of seeing an Ivory-bill would merely insure that many more 'sightings' would indeed be recorded... and, they would be meaningless. My concern, and a far greater worry I think, with so many individuals stalking through so many areas, is that many more sightings have not occurred. We can go for many years with 2 or 4 or 6 plausible sightings each and every year; but we ought be advancing to 10 or 15 or 20-25 sightings, if search techniques have validity. And then a clear photo, a nesthole, and then film... and hey, along the way, champagne and high-fives.
The official IBWO search is screeching to a halt, not for lack of evidence, but for lack of sightings of a creature that has indeed earned the name "Ghost Bird."
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