Wednesday, June 13, 2007

-- Congaree Info --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
South Carolina was one of the last places James Tanner believed the Ivory-bill persisted 60 years ago, and the rumors/claims have never completely dwindled. Since it's looking like a lot of attention may get paid to S.C.'s Congaree Swamp next IBWO search season, might be worth reviewing the area a bit. Here's what USFWS employee Bob Russell previously wrote about the Congaree over a year ago at BirdingAmerica:
"The finest bottomland forest in the east, only 5,000 acres of the 20,000+ acres have been adequately explored botanically (let along for birds!) according to rangers in the park. Knowledgeable birders who enter the visitor’s center will be startled to see James Tanner’s photo prominently displayed. Tanner was greatly instrumental in helping set up this former national monument—did he know something we don’t or did he have suspicions that IBWO were in the area? We’ll never know but presumably he knew IBWO habitat when he saw it and this is the only existing site that rivals the Tensas swamp of old. Don’t bother with the boardwalk and developed trails but strike out on your own by kayak, canoe, or hiking (open understory, relatively easy to walk under the climax overstory) and check out remote areas of the park. Shouldn’t take you more than 2-5 years of your life.
Be sure to purchase John Cely's excellent park habitat map at the Visitor Center to hone in on some of the better old-growth stands. Use caution when approaching the too abundant wild pigs that forage throughout the park as some of the old boars are humongous and able to inflict real pain. Birders working this area in March through June should always be aware of the very slight potential for Bachman's Warbler in areas of native cane and swampy blackberry and greenbriar thickets."


some basic Congaree info here:

http://www.columbiasouthcarolina.com/congaree.html


... the page posted seeking volunteers prior to last season's S.C. IBWO search:

http://www.friendsofcongaree.org/ivorybilled/

maps/brochures for the Congaree available here:

http://www.nps.gov/cong/planyourvisit/maps.htm

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

-- More of Same From Cornell --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Updates from Cornell have long taken on a tendency of divulging little new or encouraging information that was not already previously released. And such is unfortunately true of their preliminary report for the '06-07 season. Other than saying they will search further next year, very little in the way of encouragement here. Nothing positive to report thus far from all of the automatic cameras currently in place. A lot of emphasis continues to be put on the acoustic data ('kents' and double-knocks) --- as I've previously said, interesting but weak data upon which to build a case; certainly worth following up on, but, by itself, never diagnostic. Meanwhile, quite oddly, not a single team member sighting for the season is even mentioned in the report (do they regard none as credible?). Only the early season IBWO encounter claimed by a hunter in Wattensaw is briefly referenced. I assume their final report, whenever issued, will include several more details, but no greater weight of evidence.

Clearly,
in addition to Arkansas' Big Woods, Cornell does find much habitat of interest and worth further study. Key searcher Martjan Lammertink concludes, “We are encouraged by the good habitat we have found. I’d like to spend more time in the Atchafalaya basin, in the Pascagoula in Mississippi, parts of South Carolina, and in the Escambia, Apalachicola, and other rivers of the Florida Panhandle” (all, places already known to be of interest). Lammertink mentions being "impressed with the sheer size of the Atchafalaya basin in Louisiana," and being "awed by the quality of the habitat" in the Congaree (S.C.) --- frankly, it's a bit disconcerting that Lammertink, who virtually proclaimed the Ivory-bill extinct in the 1990's and is considered an expert on the species, suddenly is impressed with habitats that were there all along and referenced frequently in the past for their IBWO potential. Where's he (and a lot of other folks) been all this time, and if his judgment was faulty in the 90's might it still be wrong? How many locales of interest were totally bypassed given his mobile team's limited time in the field? There continues to be no mention of central or south Florida, nor several other areas that may be worth a serious look-see. Instead, just continued emphasis on the Congaree, where I suspect Cornell/FWS may shift much of their attention next year.

Long ago
I wrote I'd be amazed if an independent searcher accomplished what institution-based searchers, with their money, resources, and numbers, have failed to do (and document the Ivory-bill)... but... I'm beginning to wonder... In the meantime, other summary reports should be forthcoming through the summer. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- New Postings from Cornell --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cornell's preliminary summary of their 2006-7 search season has been posted (with the promise of more searching next season):

http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory/latest/0607summary/document_view

and updated Cornell analysis of auditory data here:

http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory/multimedia/sounds/newsoundpages/index_html/document_view

(may have more to say about all this later, or may just wait 'til the other summary reports are released)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, June 11, 2007

-- Watchin' and Waitin' --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
...and waitin'... and waitin'...

Another search season ends with stiiiill NO evidence for the extinction of the Ivory-bill :-))) .... just further sightings claims and/or auditory encounters in at least 3 or more disparate locales. But for lack of a photograph many will choose to contend IBWOs must be extinct, not merely rare. Such contentions are easy to make, but when involving an entire species, rash indeed, while reports continue trickling in.

As I've said before (regarding false positives and false negatives, or, type I and type II errors), the most ill-consequential possibility in this situation is not in assuming a species lives only to realize later that it is extinct, but in assuming it's been extinct for 60 years only to then discover that it persists; a hugely serious blunder indeed.


... here, another photo of an Ivory-bill museum specimen I hadn't previously noticed:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/67388199@N00/397882868/ see ADDENDUM first!

ADDENDUM: THANKS!! (the internet is great) In case it wasn't clear to all, the reason I linked to this particular above photo was because of the peculiar lack of dorsal striping on this specimen --- didn't know if this could possibly result from the specific preparation techniques used, or if female IBWOs could be so variable as to not always clearly exhibit the dorsal striping, but thought someone seeing it might comment. Sure enough, the answer (which I didn't anticipate), sent in by a half dozen different folks so far, is that this is NOT an Ivory-billed Woodpecker afterall, but a MIS-labelled female Imperial Woodpecker. The incredible size of bill and feet probably could've been a tip off.
.................................................................................

from Web Grab Bag....

...not exactly breaking news but, American bird species are on significant decline:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnw/20070608/pl_usnw/analysis_reveals_startling_decline_of_america_s_common_birds

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, June 09, 2007

-- Verse --

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The bird that just keeps inspiring... One fellow's IBWO fantasy here:

http://blog.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=blog.view&friendID=40423566&blogID=274021536
........................................................................

And for further entertainment here's one of my favorite old verbatim articles on the captive-bred/released California Condors; sure to bring a chuckle or two:
 "Cocksure Condors"   By Bob Saberhagen Californian correspondent
Filed: 09/09/1999
"PINE MOUNTAIN — When former Sierra Club national chairman Les Reid helped
pass the 1992 Condor Range and Rivers Act to provide habitat for the
endangered
California condor, he never thought he would have them in his bed.
Monday, while
working at the computer in the downstairs den of his rustic
Pine Mountain home, the
84-year-old environmental activist heard noises
coming from the top floor.
There Reid was greeted by eight giant California Condors cavorting in his
bedroom.
They had ripped through the screen door leading from an outside deck
of the hillside
home nearly 6,000 feet above sea level.

One bird was carrying Reid's underwear around in his mouth, he said.
"It was a beautiful moment," said Reid. "They just stood there looking at me.

They weren't afraid of this old white-haired gentleman." The group in Reid's bedroom
was part of a gang of 15 young birds that invaded
the mountain community a week
ago and decided to stay.
The 15 are among only 29 of the huge vultures flying free
in California, part
of a recovering population that totals only 167 after nearly becoming extinct
in the 1980's.

Dubbed the "The Wrecking Crew" by biologists chasing them, the wandering
birds have
spent the past few days making their presence well-known to
residents of the mountain
community south of Bakersfield.
But so far, to the dismay of some residents, a team of biologists
from the
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's California Condor Recovery Program has been
unable to chase the endangered birds back to the wild.

While many locals marvel at their graceful daily flights over the village, others are not so pleased.
The giant vultures, averaging 20 pounds each with wingspans of 9 or more feet, have been soaring
from home to home at the higher elevations, startling
several occupants with destructive, noisy —
and messy — visits to their decks
and rooftops. Homeowners report the birds have destroyed patio
furniture, potted plants and
insulated wires. They've also torn up roofing shingles while leaving huge
amounts of droppings in their destructive wake.

Recovery team members have been in hot pursuit, chucking pinecones at them when they land,
but the birds just flee from house to house.
Their apparent lack of fear toward humans has Fish and
Wildlife biologists
concerned for the safety of the group. The birds were born in captivity in San Diego
and released over the past three years in Lion Canyon near New
Cuyama in northern Santa Barbara County.

"If they keep this up they could end up back in captivity," said biologist Mike Barth who, with team partner
Tom Williams, has spent the past several
days trying to convince the birds to leave the area and shy away
from contact
with humans. Pine Mountain resident Patti Fields resorted to squirting them with a garden
hose after they ignored her shouts, but they continue to return to her home each time biologists flush them
from another.
"I just scrubbed the deck the day before they first showed up," she said, her nose wrinkled at
the mess on her roof and wooden deck. "They sound like an
army marching across your roof."

The birds can drop a cup or more of excrement at a time, Williams said. While undesirable, the group's
behavior is not all that unusual. Condors have
in the past been known to frequent areas populated by humans.
"It's normal for juveniles to hang out together and they have a tendency to tear things up," Williams said.
This group recently spent some time in the Stallion Springs area of
Tehachapi, where Fish and Wildlife workers
are presently going door to door
telling people not feed or encourage them. They have also visited homes near
Lake Cachuma. Recovery program officials said they are being tolerant — for now.

"We're hoping that when they start breeding they'll stop this kind of behavior," said Deputy Project
Coordinator Greg Austin. "We don't want to see
these birds doing these things. Right now we're giving
them some slack."
Austin said the birds, ranging in age from 2 to 5 years old, will reach sexual maturity
at age 6.
Only 167 California condors are in existence today. They were near extinction in 1987 when
the last of 22 remaining wild birds were captured and placed in
a captive breeding program. So far, 49
condors have been released to the wild
since 1992, when the first 13 were released. Twenty of those are
presently in
Arizona with the remaining 29 in California.

Ideally, biologists prefer the California-released birds remain within the 467,000 acres of habitat in
the Los Padres National Forest provided for them
in the Condor Range and Rivers Act. Outside
the wilderness the birds face a host of urban dangers. Condors have
died drinking anti-freeze, by
electrocution after landing on power poles, and
others have become ill eating carrion containing lead
bullets.
Many of the problems have been solved by using aversion training methods, including use
of mock power poles that jolt them with a low voltage shock.
But this group of juveniles seems to have
forgotten lessons taught in the
negative conditioning classes, especially the portion regarding fear of humans.

Among other perils they face here is the possibility they might collide with power lines during their low- level
flights through the community.
"They can spread their wings and electrocute themselves," Barth said. Austin
said efforts to train the birds are being thwarted by well-meaning
people who feed and encourage their presence.
Officials ask that residents stay at least 100 feet away from them. "If they approach, clap your hands and yell to
scare them off," said
Williams. Above all, don't feed them, he stressed.

Williams said condors normally feed up to twice weekly on the carcasses of deer, cattle and other large, dead
animals found in the wilderness.
Officers said they will continue attempts to persuade the birds to leave the
area where their activities will be constantly monitored.
"We're going to keep tabs on them, document where
they go and what they're
feeding on," Williams said. "We just want to keep them out of trouble," he added."
....and not a lot has changed since 1999; see here:

http://origin.sltrib.com/news/ci_6030030

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, June 08, 2007

-- News Article From Florida --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Newspaper article on Auburn search:

http://www.nwfdailynews.com/article/6477


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

-- Ivory-bill Light --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Humor from Tom... NO!!, not THAT Tom... this is 2 years old, but somehow I missed it at the time:

http://www.msnbc.com/comics/editorial_content.asp?sFile=tt050503

.................................................................................

... and more math entertainment :

this is the well-known paradoxical 'game show' riddle of some years ago that many of you are likely familiar with (and which created a lot of controversy at the time); but if you're young enough or unmathematically-inclined enough, it might be new to you:

A game show host presents contestant Birder Bob with 3 doors, one of which has a brand-spanking new pair of Zeiss 10x42 FL T binoculars behind it, the other 2 have dead starlings -- the host KNOWS what is behind each door. Bob gets to pick a door and win the prize behind it (hopefully the binocs). The host asks Bob for his pick and he chooses door #3. The host, knowing where the starlings are, says I'll show you what's behind Door #1, and opens it, revealing a starling corpse. He then asks Bob if he would like to change his original door choice (to #2) or stick with #3, before revealing the prize. Should Bob switch, stick with his first choice, or does it make any difference (for his best odds of getting the binos)?

the answer down below:
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Statistically speaking, Bob essentially DOUBLES his chance of winning the binos by SWITCHING his door choice. I've changed some of the verbiage in the problem above, but for any disbelievers the problem and explanation in its more standard form can be found here:

http://math-play.blogspot.com/2007/05/monte-hall-problem.html

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------