-- Another Tool -- ...+Addenda

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Quick note:

Dwight Norris on FB points out this 3+ year-old Nature article on the use of eDNA (environmental DNA left behind by species) for locating rare animals:

https://tinyurl.com/2gcdwjce

I believe this is (or has been) used minimally, and unsuccessfully thus far, in searches for IBWO. In any event I suspect it would more likely be a tool for helping confirm the presence of IBWO in a given locale after they have been seen or heard, rather than a tool for finding Ivory-bills in the first place.

A bit of the cautionary note from the piece:

“…the technique is yet to convince some scientists, who say eDNA results aren’t robust enough to be used as the sole basis for making environment-management decisions that can have legal implications for governments and land owners.

“Early studies that used eDNA to pinpoint specific species were criticized because of the potential for improper handling of samples to cause cross-contamination, leading to false-positive results. Scientists using the method are detecting only trace amounts of genetic material, so even minute amounts of contamination from gloves or equipment can taint the results. But proponents of the field say that the recent adoption of rigorous protocols that avoid or detect contamination have largely addressed such issues.”

Chances are by now, fairly 'rigorous protocols' are indeed in place, though there could still be problems of interpretation. I don't know to what degree cost may be a limiting factor in how extensively eDNA is employed? In any event, from my very limited reading the technique has been less successful or used with birds than other animal forms... mammals have even been detected from short-term DNA in air (though this article is inspired by use for a bird).

Here is a Wikipedia article on the subject:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_DNA

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ADDENDUM:

Am trying to keep articles not directly pertaining to IBWOs to a minimum here, but this is such a nice story (from Dwight N. again), that I’ll it pass along… about a rehabbed Pileated Woodpecker maintained in a Michigan zoo:

https://www.grmag.com/museums-attractions/zoo-introduces-norman-the-pileated-woodpecker/?fbclid=IwAR3GI-avX7CZDPBicNIounDw9Ebc2g4rt34HqDRe0PP6mZ3vwllphM4Z2r0

I’ve never given much hope to any notion of possible captive breeding for IBWOs (as done with some other endangered avian species), but this piece is at least interesting. I do wish they said more about the actual habitat and daily routine of this bird, and it will be interesting to see what it’s longevity in captivity is.

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ADDENDUM2  1/29:

A couple more longish postings by Chuck Hunter over on Facebook worth a gander:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/ivorybillnews/posts/1528420804344451/?comment_id=1529215204265011

https://www.facebook.com/groups/ivorybillnews/posts/1528420804344451/?comment_id=1529215204265011&reply_comment_id=1529221810931017

Sorry for any redundancy of linking to Chuck yet again, but so many of the knowledgeable, thoughtful, objective sources I used to rely on years ago have passed from this arena that he is one of the few left whose views I’m willing to pass along as trustworthy. These posts are mostly historical info, and I always caution about the difficulty of knowing how reliable/valid/relevant such information (based on a small sample of IBWOs) really is for any limited, remnant population still around almost 100 years later, but certainly food for thought.

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ADDENDUM3  1/31:

NPR with a current audio report on the IBWO story (mostly rehash of where we're at):

https://www.kuaf.com/show/ozarks-at-large/2023-01-30/federal-extinction-declaration-decision-for-ivory-billed-woodpeckers-imminent

...the USFWS decision is likely still a couple months away, so don't read too much into the word "imminent" in the story title.

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ADDENDUM4  1/31:

Apologies for all the addenda, but am waiting for more significant news to start a new post.  The below again is recent history, old news for all well familiar with it, but definitely of interest for the many new folks entering the IBWO arena. Hat tip once again to Dwight Norris (Facebook) for referencing it, as it comes from one of the most respected, long-term IBWO searchers out there, Paul Sykes (who’s been at this for decades since the 1960s), a nice summary of his searching:

https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2039&context=usgsstaffpub&fbclid=IwAR1EUsR6ZoTTFaXJkBAOdiHTy17IWw-2omII45B8jATlAQp4LbpiIJ_9hVs

His efforts are of interest in themselves, and his conclusions are important as well, because of his experience and contacts over time. Additionally, years ago he and Steve Holzman spent significant time attempting to deduce the diagnostic features of IBWO scraping and bark scaling (as have many others) only to conclude in the end that we simply don’t know definitively how to separate IBWO work from other work… indeed, if we did, we would surely by now have a clear photo of an Ivory-bill from an automatic camera focused on such work — I’ve long argued that the failure of remote automatic cameras to capture an IBWO (rather than the failure of humans to observe them) is the single most damning evidence against IBWO survival in any given area.

By now, Steve is largely skeptical and pessimistic about IBWO survival… and he’s earned the right to that conclusion from the multifold efforts he put in. With that said, I'm sure no one would be any more excited/ecstatic were definitive proof of the bird's existence to now arise.

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ADDENDUM5 2/4:

Matt Courtman’s next monthly IBWO Zoom meeting is this Monday evening (2/6), again at 8pm EST., details here (free to join):

https://www.facebook.com/events/570295411419641/?ref=newsfeed

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ADDENDUM6  2/5:

Dwight N. has posted five more lengthy entries from Chuck Hunter on Facebook (actually the last one, #5, is an old posting from Bill Pulliam making the same point about IBWO density that Chris Haney emphasizes and makes well more recently in his volume “Woody’s Last Laugh”). 

The posts are mostly of a historical nature or commentary (much of it about ‘signs’ of IBWOs, i.e. sounds, dks, kents, flight patterns, behavior etc., but also, in #4, some reference to more recent history since 2005); certainly worth reading for those unfamiliar with much of it. I think #3, with the Reynard information, is the most interesting of the bunch:

#1 https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156630967691615/

#2  https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156644977690214/

#3  https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156661604355218/

#4  https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156674251020620/

#5  https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156682907686421/

The historical information is great and (with caution) instructive, but what I'm still hopeful for within the next say 5 weeks is perhaps some more and better publicly-released evidence....

-- 2023 Underway --

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Many of us believe that the drone footage shared by Project Principalis awhile back (with USFWS) is the best recent evidence of an extant Ivory-billed Woodpecker to emerge recently. Chuck Hunter (one of the foremost experts on IBWOs, retired from USFWS) has now given his analysis of it on a Facebook group, and it is worth reading. It coincides closely with my own view of that footage. I'm less confident of some of his points (and he is appropriately cautious), but am in accord with the basic conclusion that the bird seems to be either an IBWO or some sort of leucistic PIWO — I expressed that view quite awhile back here on the blog, and also did so recently in private communication with another individual.  Some will likely continue to try to argue the bird may be a Red-headed Woodpecker or possibly even a non-woodpecker species, all of which seem eliminated in my view.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6088471191174260/

The post includes one of the enhanced/zoomed versions of the drone footage for viewing.  Even in this form it is, as seems agonizingly always the case, difficult to feel completely certain about several details when so many variables are in play. Also, be sure to read Chuck's lengthy comment to his own post-comment -- it gets quite into the weeds of the old arguments that used to be more commonplace in this arena, and I would almost say have faded away since Bill Pulliam passed (like myself, Chuck gives Bill a lot of credit for earlier work done in this debate). He also mentions Louis Bevier who was a prestigious and active skeptic at the time, but who, for reasons I won't get into, left the whole debate and is unlikely to comment on any new evidence or information (not sure if he even follows it any longer).

...In other news, if you're not already aware of it, Matt Courtman holds another Monday evening Zoom meeting (free) this Monday at 8pm EST. He has also posted an update of his current search in the Tensas area. You can visit his Mission Ivorybill page for more details:

https://www.facebook.com/MissionIvorybill

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ADDENDUM  1/18/23

Handful of folks are dropping me notes/links lately about various matters that I’m already familiar with… most of which I won't spend time addressing, unless more precision, detail, consistency, credibility, accuracy, reliability, transparency, and rigor is added to the issues involved, and major problems relieved. Am glad to see Chuck Hunter weigh in elsewhere (maybe futilely ;) to add some sanity to a few of the matters (he has more patience than I do!). ...And I’ll simply add that people ought understand how eBird works/functions before making nonsensical/embarrassing submissions there. Shooting oneself in the foot is not usually a good look.

As we approach the time USFWS will make a determination I hope we don't enter an utter clownshow stage...

— Biding Time Again —

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New year, so feel like I oughta post something!... Several damp, gray, cold days had me stuck inside at the computer recently, just looking at or playing around with a few numbers. I may be way off on some of these, so feel free to correct if you have more updated or accurate information...

As best I could roughly estimate (from online sources):

National Audubon Society has ~600,000 members (I assume most of those are North American, but don’t really know the breakdown)

American Birding Association (ABA) membership is around 20,000 (again don’t know the breakdown worldwide), although this figure seemed oddly low to me??? (so someone got a better figure?)

Cornell Lab of Ornithology  ~75,000 members

worldwide estimate for those on eBird: 200,000, probably with at least a quarter of those North American?

…again, all verrrry rough figures, so feel free to correct... but anyway, needless to say, a lot of folks interested to varying degrees in birds.

Finally, on social media there are well over 6000 folks following sites devoted to the Ivory-billed Woodpecker; though not necessarily all are IBWO enthusiasts.  Some of those would be full-fledged skeptics who only follow along to monitor what is being stated (or misstated) on such sites; and some are folks who think the species is most likely extinct, but still hold out some slim hope. Others are simply interested in cryptids in general, so include IBWO among their follows. The remainder, maybe perhaps 4000, could be “true believers” or so-called “IBWO-truthers” who think (or even feel certain) that the species exists. Worth noting though that most of those 4000-or-so are almost certainly NOT serious or long-time, experienced birders (some are, but not most)… as indicated if one follows much of the serious birding community on a site like Twitter or a birding forum the derision for IBWO-belief remains pretty broad-based and growing. The treatment of Matt Courtman by his own Louisiana active-birding community is another indication, as is the treatment, for that matter, of almost any claimant by the wider birding community (…that treatment being anything from shunning to snickering at, and a whole lot of eye-rolling). In large part both the 'believer' and 'skeptic' communities reside now in their own self-contained, self-reinforcing bubbles.

So once again, unless new, significant evidence is introduced (and, that could happen!…) the USFWS bureaucracy will soon be weighing the voices of a small, highly vocal group versus an increasingly impatient throng of knowledgeable birders and conservationists… and making a decision… a decision that will have no bearing whatsoever on whether the IBWO actually exists, but could have bearing on the perceptions of any few remaining who are still neutral on the subject... while no doubt also spurring further contentious debate over the "evidence" that already exists (such as it is). It would be great to be a fly on the wall at the USFWS proceedings/discussions. I have no idea how many folks are in on those talks, nor whether their final decision must be unanimous or simply majority-rule. Meanwhile, IF an IBWO nestsite is to be found we are approaching the time of year it ought happen (...as I've probably said for 16 years in a row now ;)

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ADDENDUM  1/7:

Just a quick note, since Dwight Norris on Facebook just posted this nice clip of a Pileated at work:

https://youtube.com/shorts/6N0dxqfxLMU?feature=share

I used to get pics sent to me, with some regularity, of trees with multiple large woodpecker holes, but just so folks know, this is completely typical for PIWO and not at all typical of IBWO. Examples from the Web:

(in 15 years, I’ve probably had less than 5 pics sent to me that I thought were even possible IBWO cavities... foraging/bark-scaling work is a little more interesting, though also hugely difficult to interpret from photos... and automatic cameras focused on putative foraging work has never captured a clear IBWO).

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-- Bye To 2022 --

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Was planning to post at very end of month, but since there's a new Washington Post article out today (mostly on the Latta/Michaels search and re-iteration of their confidence) I'll just dump all this now (hope you can open the link):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/12/19/ivory-billed-woodpecker-extinct/

Feel like I end each year in recent times thinking that surely there MUST be definitive evidence of IBWOs next year or it's time to pack up this tent and go home (at least for the time being). Brits sometimes call those of us keeping stories like this alive, "stringers," for tossing out just enough crumbs to keep dragging the public along. Many interested parties have left the IBWO arena by now at the very same time that many newbies have entered it... with the enticing 'crumbs' still being regularly tossed about. My guess (once again) is that next year may well be crucial to any resolution (...or, NOT, haha). Would also guess that early in the year USFWS will choose to de-list, but that was my guess last go-around, so what do I know! (they will be roundly booed, no matter which decision they make!)...  

The sorts of evidence and arguments that are regularly put forth now could fairly easily continue for a couple more decades... except that nobody wants that. And given the relatively small-scale and sporadic nature of current searches I'm not confident of the likelihood of success, but luck or lightning only need strike once; one really fine video, one active nesthole located, one recently-deceased carcass discovered, to change the narrative... So onward to 2023.... 

As far as some folks writing me to ask about South Carolina, I won’t go into muddy details or back-and-forth arguments other than to re-voice my personal view (unless/until significant evidence persuades otherwise), that IBWOs are most likely extirpated from S.C. (and Texas also, with 7 other states though remaining more likely).

...And thanks to all who send in thoughts, ideas, "evidence," questions, etc. etc. throughout the year, even if I don't always find time to respond (trying to limit my time on this subject until real news warrants the time/effort).

Meanwhile, down at bottom a few miscellaneous examples from over the years of photoshopped, or otherwise non-living IBWOs, that give a hint of how readily a faked photo can be achieved...

But otherwise maybe just sign off to 2022 with this: ;)

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ADDENDA  12/22:

Will toss out just a couple more items/videos for perusal:

Matt Courtman got some further publicity on a local TV station for his efforts:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vU6sed1P7rM

Searcher Mike Collins takes issue with the Latta/Michaels interpretation of the drone video they released earlier (Mike thinks it’s a definite, normal Pileated vs. possibility of IBWO):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8x_oY2F2nU

I don’t agree fully with Mike’s analysis here, but present this for the sake of pointing out that, unlike the unanimity some presume on the part of so-called “IBWO Truthers” there are actually a number of disagreements.

I tentatively lean toward the bird being either an IBWO or a leucistic PIWO (...and there are those who still think it a Red-headed Woodpecker). I would urge folks who wish to analyze it further to try and find one of the enlarged/enhanced copies of the video to view. But no desire here to debate back-and-forth what the bird is; simply waiting instead for a video that requires no debate or analysis.

-----------------------------------

ADDENDA2  12/24:

since I've started Addenda, may as well ramble on with a couple more:

1)  a reader sends me this li'l history of the Singer Tract I don't recall seeing before:

https://sites.rootsweb.com/~lamadiso/articles/singer.htm

2)  Some discussion of acoustic data over on FB lately, but a lingering problem is simply the lack of any "control" data-set; i.e. ideally we need to have ARUs (sound-recording devices) set up for an extended period in the deep woods of places like New Hampshire or Washington state or Montreal etc. (where there are no IBWOs) and then analyzed to see how many kent and DK-like sounds appear on those tapes, and whether they can be spectrographically (and diagnostically) distinguished from the relatively small (barely significant) sample of known IBWO sounds we have on record. Putative sounds can be interesting, but primarily only when they end up coming in conjunction with sightings, and less-so as stand-alone data.

As I noted elsewhere recently, by now IF the IBWO is ever fully documented what will be most significant of all is not the re-discovery, but rather what it exposes about the lack of rigor and science in ornithology that permitted the species to go missing over decades in the first place.

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ADDENDA3 12/29:

Another news site has now re-run this story carried previously by CNN, without (so far as I can tell) giving credit to the earlier reporter or site:

https://divya-bharat.com/ivory-billed-woodpecker-extinct-courtman-climate-ctpr/

---------------------------------

— End of Year and An Offbeat Recommendation —

 —————————————————————————

Suspect I may post again before end of year, but in case not, will take this opportunity to wish all a happy holiday season and new year... after what has been one of the wackiest years yet! with hyperbolic claims and avian Rorschach tests, inadequate to convince skeptics, continuing to ardently spring forth. I do hope USFWS will make a 'final' decision early next year (in either direction) and we can quit arguing over that Agency and just focus on searches.

Finally, a bit of an odd recommendation today. I suggested some books in the last post and will mention one more, though not pertaining directly to the IBWO. One of my loves is mathematics, and one favorite (but lesser-known) math expositor is Jason Rosenhouse (have enjoyed most of his books, and a blog he long ago wrote). Just recently read his 2020 volume, “Games For Your Mind,” all about logic, puzzles, and math philosophy. If you have an inherent interest, and some background, in these topics, which can be dry and tedious but which Rosenhouse treats well, I highly recommend this volume (will help if you already have some familiarity with the names/work of Lewis Carroll, Raymond Smullyan, Alfred Tarski, Bertrand Russell, Gödel, etc.).

Why do I even venture to mention such a book in the context of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker? Because I think actual strict, tight “logic” is often sorely missing in the debate over the IBWO, on the part of both skeptics and believers alike. Chris Haney touches on logic, writing a lot about thought “fallacies” in his book “Woody’s Last Laugh” though that is not the more formal, academic logic that Rosenhouse is addressing (and Rosenhouse touches on both "classical" and "non-classical" or "fuzzy" logic).

Again, this work won’t grab you if you don’t already have an interest in the area, but for those with some (mathematical) background I think this is the best, most accessible treatment of some difficult and rigorous ideas I have seen, and I wish this subject, which can be made fun by its connection to recreational math, was taught more widely and earlier-on in our educational system. To be clear, you will NOT read this book and think at any point, 'oh wow, THAT applies to the Ivory-billed Woodpecker!' but rather simply it may instill a greater appreciation of precise, critical, deductive thinking in general, in place of inductive assumptions and generalizations (...or, contrarily, it may turn you off entirely to the subject of academic/philosophical logic!).

With all that said, and despite the emphasis on 'logic,' I expect the final resolution of the Ivory-bill debate may well also involve a major dose of intuition!

In any event, onward to 2023....

—————————————————————————

— Of Birds and Books —

 ————————————————————

I don’t generally link to discoveries of rare animals/birds which occur every year because the case of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker is so different from, or non-analogous to, most other creatures, and I don’t like to draw too much comparison to other cases. But this latest instance of a found bird species does have a number of interesting parallels, as well as simply being fascinating in its own right:

https://www.audubon.org/news/like-finding-unicorn-researchers-rediscover-black-naped-pheasant-pigeon-bird

And with holiday shopping approaching I was planning (in a couple weeks) to mention a few IBWO books for any on your list who may just now be getting interested in the IBWO. Rather than waiting, I'll go ahead and tack those on here; mentioning only 4 of the now many books that address the Ivory-bill topic:

1)  Jerry Jackson’s classic In Search of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker — somewhat dated by now, and missing a lot of info from recent times, but still a good, broad overview of matters from one of the leading experts on the IBWO.

2)  Woody’s Last Laugh by Christopher Haney — recent, and easily the most comprehensive, and in some ways interesting, text on the whole subject; but also a bit of a slog to read; repetitive and somewhat disorganized and pedantic, but chockfull of info and thoughts that no other volume includes in one place; great notes and addenda as well.

3)  Noel Snyder’s The Travails of Two Woodpeckers — an important take from another major scholar of the Ivory-bill, though may be hard to find.

4)  Finally, for getting young people especially, interested in the Ivory-bill, Phillip Hoose’s The Race to Save The Lord God Bird is still a fun and quick read (…again not up-to-date, but a good read).

There are several more recent volumes, especially ones that focus on one or another particular aspect of the IBWO story -- they all make contributions to the subject, but also tend to have certain problems/issues (in my view) -- anyway, for initiation I recommend the above volumes, which I think of as foundational. Probably, even as I write these words there are additional, and important, IBWO books being written, still to come. The story is, most likely, not over (despite what you might hear over, ummm, the internet).

IF, at end of year, you’re looking to give money toward other prospective Ivory-bill-related causes you could consider The National Aviary with its IBWO search project in Louisiana:

https://www.aviary.org

…or, to Matt Courtman’s “Mission Ivorybill” effort in various locales:

https://www.gofundme.com/f/a-bird-worth-saving-a-fresh-approach?utm_source=customer&utm_medium=copy_link_all&utm_campaign=p_cp%20share-sheet&fbclid=IwAR2sWSvGEItOJ-7Q5tv2grih-Uq1Nn5bUb1Th4LPtHaKifqx8dlRyj-FMBM

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-- And Another Paper --

 ————---------------------------------—————

Over on FB, Chris Sharpe links to this recent journal article focusing on government expenditures toward the IBWO (often a bone of contention):

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ibi.13144

A common issue in IBWO debates is how much money has been spent on the IBWO that could have gone toward the benefit of other, less-debated species. The authors argue, perhaps a bit simplistically, that  “continued expenditure of resources on the species are all exacerbated by prestige and affiliation bias;” i.e., and really to no surprise, the expertise and academic affiliations of a few of the players in this saga have unduly influenced the continuation of the debate (a sort of 'appeal to authority' fallacy), notably within the USFWS (the authors believe the IBWO should be declared extinct). One could almost look through the other end of the prism to say that the reason the IBWO debate is NOT taken seriously by so many is simply because the bulk of IBWO proponents LACK the expertise or academic affiliation which is often considered fundamental — i.e., a lot of noise from a bunch of rank-amateurs (it would be argued) — and that too is a bias of sorts (against those who may actually have excellent bird-identification skills, but have not written books, academic papers, lack PhDs. or academic affiliations, or other name-recognition, etc.).

I suppose the authors are attempting to explain, for those still baffled by it, why this whole debate continues on, but to fault "prestige" in "scientific discourse" seems a bit ill-guided as it is a natural (even logical) "bias" common to most scientific endeavors.

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— Two New Reads… inside and outside the box —

----------------------------------------------------------------

Fresh piece in mainstream media (CNN) on some of the current happenings (focused on Matt Courtman) with the IBWO:

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/us/ivory-billed-woodpecker-extinct-courtman-climate-ctpr/

…and from long-time IBWO student David L. Martin a personal take on some past history:

https://fangsheath.wordpress.com/2022/10/25/edward-avery-mcilhenny-and-the-ivory-billed-woodpecker-in-the-coastal-forest-of-louisiana/?fbclid=IwAR18QtkFElxmr1AX56T7Fx6lH3KmrYJTnddp4hJsS1IGSqLLz2OJ5DyG9Jo

Still not seeing much likelihood of significant news in the very near-term, but just maybe between the end of January and end of February next year something could pop...

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-- Mid-October --

 _____________________________________

Dwight Norris, proprietor of the main Ivory-bill Facebook group, has been posting LOTS of basic, historical, past info on the IBWO for awhile now (he started taking a much more hands-on, and moderating approach to the account quite awhile back). Very interesting and helpful for the continuing flow of new folks focusing on this subject. Again, it doesn't necessarily move the needle forward as far as documenting the species now once-and-for-all, but it is material folks should be acquainted with.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368

And just for entertainment, one interesting thing he posted that I don't recall seeing before, and which is not too IBWO-pertinent, was a simulation of an overhead Passenger Pigeon flock, accurately depicting the description given in several historical writings: 

https://vimeo.com/92192308

Meanwhile, Gizmodo reports on a study concluding the Endangered Species Act is "toothless":

https://gizmodo.com/endangered-species-act-is-toothless-research-shows-1849648576

They conclude this because only a very tiny percentage of those species placed under the Act's protection have ever been saved, though they also note that the USFWS has always "been starved for resources" (also worth noting that the vast majority of species listed for protection have been plants and another 18% were invertebrates). What tends of course to get most publicized are the  larger-scale, but rarer, successes. The article further argues that the problem is that species tend to be given protections only when it is already too late and any real chance of saving them has passed. That fits with one of the arguments some IBWO skeptics make, saying that even if a few Ivory-bills remain they are still functionally extinct and unsalvageable. Not a view we all hold. Reminds me a bit again of what excellent Tennessee birder Bill Pulliam once said to me of the possibility of IBWOs in western Tennessee (where he had searched): 'If Ivory-bills are there they've shown they can make it this far and deserve to just be left alone.'

No word, as of this writing, from Matt Courtman as to any upcoming Monday Zoom meetings. He did post on FB a photo of a Tensas cavity he found interesting:

Always hard to tell from a photo, but the tree's girth doesn't look promising for an IBWO, although for a roosthole it could be adequate. Moreover, the hole doesn't appear fresh, but more like an old hole likely enlarged by other critters over time (I see holes like this every year in my area, which is definitely not IBWO-country), but am not on site to see the cavity up close, so will wish him well in his endeavor.

Soon the leaves will be falling from the trees (if not already started) and that will aid searchers.

____________________________________

ADDENDUM:

A new piece in BirdWatching Daily on the USFWS de-listing review process:

https://www.birdwatchingdaily.com/news/conservation/ivory-bill-delisting-update-feds-looking-at-everything/

— Road Ahead? —

 —————————————————————

“Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,

Creeps in this petty pace from day to day…

Life… is a tale old by an idiot, 

Full of sound and fury,

Signifying nothing.”

     — Shakespeare (Macbeth)

Less than 4 months left in yet another year… these years cycle by almost in predictable fashion anymore… some initial hope, some rumors or anticipation of something to come, further debates, and in the end stiiiiiiiiill nothing definitive or conclusive…. this year, in particular, has grown stranger and stranger as it proceeded. :(

Off-hand I don’t see much likelihood of any major IBWO news between now and end of year (…and by ‘major’ I mean something in the way of evidence that believers and skeptics will mutually agree on). Perhaps, if we get lucky, something during the first quarter of next year, maybe from the Latta group (during which the USFWS should also be announcing its final decision on de-listing). I’ll be happy if we just get to the end of 2022 without a major-level hoax being perpetrated as I was predicting a year ago.

Still plenty of IBWO chatter over on Facebook but mostly the same history, ideas, theories, arguments, speculations, undocumented claims, backchannel-squabbling, sock puppetry, rehashed over and over; like treading water endlessly, barely moving forward. And it’s still the case that believers analyzing their own evidence, within their own bubble, and concluding that ‘the evidence shows an Ivory-bill!’ gets us nowhere. Only when agnostics, skeptics/denialists, and/or independents analyze evidence and conclude it shows an IBWO will progress be made (and yet most such folks don't even think it worth their time to engage in such effort). Analysis of ambiguous data by those already committed to the IBWO and long-entrenched in their own viewpoint is, rightly or wrongly, forever perceived as too biased and unobjective to be taken seriously, or even presumed credible. IBWO believers analyzing IBWO evidence just doesn't get us very far if there is any wiggle room for interpretation... might as well be Russians telling us how great their Special Operations in Ukraine are going. :(  We're left, spinning our wheels, feeling as if progress is being made but the needle has barely budged... basically, stiiiiiiill awaiting a nesthole and pics. The Ivory-bill story is in some ways the greatest overall narrative ever in American ornithology, yet in need of a ‘happily-ever-after’ ending… lest, alternatively, it turns out to be little more than an adult fairy tale.

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— Quick Note — CANCELLED

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NOTE:  Matt Courtman now announces that this event has been cancelled due to illness:

Haven’t heard much from Matt Courtman of late but he has another Monday night Zoom meeting scheduled for tomorrow 9/12/22, once again with scientist/author Christopher Haney:

https://www.facebook.com/events/1134677147140763/

(I recommended Haney’s volume on the IBWO back HERE.)

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-- Closing Out August --

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Several possible topics been thinking of addressing, in part stemming from ‘discussions’ at Facebook, where, as one poster writes:  “What a bizarre circus act this group has become." 

(…reaching a point where psychiatrists just may find the FB sites more interesting and enlightening than birders do!).

Too much to choose from though, so instead I’ll just pass along some other entertainment to end the month:

...bunch of fresh IBWO artwork from Twitter in August (some interesting, some less so):

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23avianaugust2022%20%2Bwoodpecker&src=typed_query&f=top

...and this is old, but I only recently stumbled across it (sums up, where we remain in the minds of too many, unfortunately):

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-- Repeating Cycles --

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I found a graph on the Web that seems to depict how over and over again excitement for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker seems to grow and grow, only to always fall off in the end.

As I tried to warn early on, the submissions to the USFWS were largely, as is becoming routine, over-hyped/promoted/anticipated, and thus hard to tell how much impact they will ultimately have. But mixed in with the weak, ambiguous, and outright bonkers “evidence” was, to be sure, some intriguing data, and perhaps more will come before USFW makes any final decision early next year (…or, is it even conceivable that they could extend the comment period yet again!?; I doubt it). Methinks there's a bit of a David (‘true believers’) versus Goliath (most of the birding community) battle going on putting pressure on USFWS. One can both imagine them reviewing comments with belly laughs, but also imagine them being intrigued by specific elements. The public comment period I s’pose is intended in part to give the appearance of openness and transparency… and yet there’s a lot about the whole process that is not very open or transparent.

IBWO interest and enthusiasm seems to run in cycles that are almost getting predictable, and tiresome to experience. Even some of the recent Facebook activity and discussion is beginning to stall and implode on itself… and yet, experienced, knowledgeable observers still claim sightings in multiple states… and if just one of them is right, well, then the species exists. Personally, I guess I still like the probabilities of at least one of them being right versus all of them being looneybins! ;))

[p.s…. OK, the actual labels being used for the graph above (of human sexual response) that I’ve blocked out, read as follows: desire, excitement, plateau, orgasm, resolution]  ;)

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— Yawn… (more miscellany) —

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1)  Again, a bit bemused by how little serious discussion has been generated from the latest USFWS 30-day comment period… a sign of just how many folks have simply left the IBWO room, or if they remain, are still awaiting something more definitive.

It was always incredible that way back with the Luneau video, equally expert, experienced birders could not even agree, whether certain frames were showing the ventral or dorsal side of the wing — how is it even possible that that can’t be settled!? — and still those same-type battles are present today… pause, freeze-frame, re-play as much as you want and people still can’t agree on the features being seen in virtually any submitted video.

2)  Hahh!… Big spender biologist Jerry Coyne is offering $100 to anyone who can offer evidence 'convincing the birding community' that the species still exists:

https://whyevolutionistrue.com/2022/08/21/still-no-sign-of-the-ivory-billed-woodpecker-despite-repeated-claims-of-sightings/

(…in the past, rewards of between $10,000 and $50,000 have failed to produce the needed documentation, but maybe Jerry’s offer will get lucky ;))

3)  A reader points me to an old timey book with chapter on IBWOs, “The Red Headed Family,” starting on page 23 (I’ve seen a LOT of old references, but had missed this one):

https://ia600703.us.archive.org/27/items/bywaysbirdnotes00thomrich/bywaysbirdnotes00thomrich.pdf

4)  Since IBWO evidence seems to now be getting disclosed publicly months, even years after its actual collection, I hope that means that more is being analyzed right now that we may have to look forward to seeing in the next 6 months.

5)  I'll just note that this week marks the 5-year anniversary since the all-too-early death of Tennessee's Bill Pulliam, one of my favorite figures in this whole IBWO saga. His search in the Moss Island region of Western Tennessee made for some interesting reading over a dozen years ago. I could never get a very straight answer from him as to whether he really thought IBWOs dwelled there, or how much followup searching was ever done... BUT he did once tell me that IF they were there they deserved to just be left alone... IF they had made it this far they could continue to make it on their own just fine.

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— More Odds and Ends —

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1)  Scanning over the Web for responses to the 30-day USFWS comments I’m not sure if I see more serious discussion and interest… or, more just mockery and exasperation. Tough call! :(

The debate may have reached a stage of diminishing returns… until a photo/video can be produced which, when opened on a smartphone will have everyone agreeing, ‘oh wow, THAT’S an Ivory-billed Woodpecker.'

2)  Project Principalis has posted new crops of their USFWS submission here:

https://projectcoyoteibwo.com/2022/08/17/new-unenhanced-crops-of-drone-clips-at-full-speed/?fbclid=IwAR1OxG_0OpAs1aA600PmZaELarDopbmkohtGD6P5fcI8J0vf3BC68zelbrw

3)  Am busy with so many non-IBWO things right now that it’s almost impossible for me to even keep up with the musings over at the IBWO FB pages. But I did notice a reference to an individual claiming possession of IBWO eggs and feathers — perhaps the original post has already been deleted because I couldn’t find it, but so far as I know possession of such would definitely be against the law and perhaps a matter for law enforcement to look into (possession of feathers, nests, eggs of most North American songbirds, with but a few exceptions, is against the law, except under special circumstances or with a special permit). Anyway, if anyone knows the fuller story on that, which I missed, feel free to fill me in.

4)  The largest IBWO FB group has been stuck at ~6200 members for awhile now — I had once offhandedly predicted it would hit about 6400 members by mid-August before plateauing, and almost wonder if the current status is an indicator of just how little all the USFWS submissions have moved the needle for IBWO interest; perhaps as many frustrated folks now leaving the topic behind as are joining?

5) …and while biding time, here’s just some fun with pareidolia:

https://pleated-jeans.com/2019/05/28/pareidolia-examples/

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