— Road Ahead? —

 —————————————————————

“Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,

Creeps in this petty pace from day to day…

Life… is a tale old by an idiot, 

Full of sound and fury,

Signifying nothing.”

     — Shakespeare (Macbeth)

Less than 4 months left in yet another year… these years cycle by almost in predictable fashion anymore… some initial hope, some rumors or anticipation of something to come, further debates, and in the end stiiiiiiiiill nothing definitive or conclusive…. this year, in particular, has grown stranger and stranger as it proceeded. :(

Off-hand I don’t see much likelihood of any major IBWO news between now and end of year (…and by ‘major’ I mean something in the way of evidence that believers and skeptics will mutually agree on). Perhaps, if we get lucky, something during the first quarter of next year, maybe from the Latta group (during which the USFWS should also be announcing its final decision on de-listing). I’ll be happy if we just get to the end of 2022 without a major-level hoax being perpetrated as I was predicting a year ago.

Still plenty of IBWO chatter over on Facebook but mostly the same history, ideas, theories, arguments, speculations, undocumented claims, backchannel-squabbling, sock puppetry, rehashed over and over; like treading water endlessly, barely moving forward. And it’s still the case that believers analyzing their own evidence, within their own bubble, and concluding that ‘the evidence shows an Ivory-bill!’ gets us nowhere. Only when agnostics, skeptics/denialists, and/or independents analyze evidence and conclude it shows an IBWO will progress be made (and yet most such folks don't even think it worth their time to engage in such effort). Analysis of ambiguous data by those already committed to the IBWO and long-entrenched in their own viewpoint is, rightly or wrongly, forever perceived as too biased and unobjective to be taken seriously, or even presumed credible. IBWO believers analyzing IBWO evidence just doesn't get us very far if there is any wiggle room for interpretation... might as well be Russians telling us how great their Special Operations in Ukraine are going. :(  We're left, spinning our wheels, feeling as if progress is being made but the needle has barely budged... basically, stiiiiiiill awaiting a nesthole and pics. The Ivory-bill story is in some ways the greatest overall narrative ever in American ornithology, yet in need of a ‘happily-ever-after’ ending… lest, alternatively, it turns out to be little more than an adult fairy tale.

———————————————————