— Biding Time Again —

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New year, so feel like I oughta post something!... Several damp, gray, cold days had me stuck inside at the computer recently, just looking at or playing around with a few numbers. I may be way off on some of these, so feel free to correct if you have more updated or accurate information...

As best I could roughly estimate (from online sources):

National Audubon Society has ~600,000 members (I assume most of those are North American, but don’t really know the breakdown)

American Birding Association (ABA) membership is around 20,000 (again don’t know the breakdown worldwide), although this figure seemed oddly low to me??? (so someone got a better figure?)

Cornell Lab of Ornithology  ~75,000 members

worldwide estimate for those on eBird: 200,000, probably with at least a quarter of those North American?

…again, all verrrry rough figures, so feel free to correct... but anyway, needless to say, a lot of folks interested to varying degrees in birds.

Finally, on social media there are well over 6000 folks following sites devoted to the Ivory-billed Woodpecker; though not necessarily all are IBWO enthusiasts.  Some of those would be full-fledged skeptics who only follow along to monitor what is being stated (or misstated) on such sites; and some are folks who think the species is most likely extinct, but still hold out some slim hope. Others are simply interested in cryptids in general, so include IBWO among their follows. The remainder, maybe perhaps 4000, could be “true believers” or so-called “IBWO-truthers” who think (or even feel certain) that the species exists. Worth noting though that most of those 4000-or-so are almost certainly NOT serious or long-time, experienced birders (some are, but not most)… as indicated if one follows much of the serious birding community on a site like Twitter or a birding forum the derision for IBWO-belief remains pretty broad-based and growing. The treatment of Matt Courtman by his own Louisiana active-birding community is another indication, as is the treatment, for that matter, of almost any claimant by the wider birding community (…that treatment being anything from shunning to snickering at, and a whole lot of eye-rolling). In large part both the 'believer' and 'skeptic' communities reside now in their own self-contained, self-reinforcing bubbles.

So once again, unless new, significant evidence is introduced (and, that could happen!…) the USFWS bureaucracy will soon be weighing the voices of a small, highly vocal group versus an increasingly impatient throng of knowledgeable birders and conservationists… and making a decision… a decision that will have no bearing whatsoever on whether the IBWO actually exists, but could have bearing on the perceptions of any few remaining who are still neutral on the subject... while no doubt also spurring further contentious debate over the "evidence" that already exists (such as it is). It would be great to be a fly on the wall at the USFWS proceedings/discussions. I have no idea how many folks are in on those talks, nor whether their final decision must be unanimous or simply majority-rule. Meanwhile, IF an IBWO nestsite is to be found we are approaching the time of year it ought happen (...as I've probably said for 16 years in a row now ;)

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ADDENDUM  1/7:

Just a quick note, since Dwight Norris on Facebook just posted this nice clip of a Pileated at work:

https://youtube.com/shorts/6N0dxqfxLMU?feature=share

I used to get pics sent to me, with some regularity, of trees with multiple large woodpecker holes, but just so folks know, this is completely typical for PIWO and not at all typical of IBWO. Examples from the Web:

(in 15 years, I’ve probably had less than 5 pics sent to me that I thought were even possible IBWO cavities... foraging/bark-scaling work is a little more interesting, though also hugely difficult to interpret from photos... and automatic cameras focused on putative foraging work has never captured a clear IBWO).

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-- Bye To 2022 --

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Was planning to post at very end of month, but since there's a new Washington Post article out today (mostly on the Latta/Michaels search and re-iteration of their confidence) I'll just dump all this now (hope you can open the link):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/12/19/ivory-billed-woodpecker-extinct/

Feel like I end each year in recent times thinking that surely there MUST be definitive evidence of IBWOs next year or it's time to pack up this tent and go home (at least for the time being). Brits sometimes call those of us keeping stories like this alive, "stringers," for tossing out just enough crumbs to keep dragging the public along. Many interested parties have left the IBWO arena by now at the very same time that many newbies have entered it... with the enticing 'crumbs' still being regularly tossed about. My guess (once again) is that next year may well be crucial to any resolution (...or, NOT, haha). Would also guess that early in the year USFWS will choose to de-list, but that was my guess last go-around, so what do I know! (they will be roundly booed, no matter which decision they make!)...  

The sorts of evidence and arguments that are regularly put forth now could fairly easily continue for a couple more decades... except that nobody wants that. And given the relatively small-scale and sporadic nature of current searches I'm not confident of the likelihood of success, but luck or lightning only need strike once; one really fine video, one active nesthole located, one recently-deceased carcass discovered, to change the narrative... So onward to 2023.... 

As far as some folks writing me to ask about South Carolina, I won’t go into muddy details or back-and-forth arguments other than to re-voice my personal view (unless/until significant evidence persuades otherwise), that IBWOs are most likely extirpated from S.C. (and Texas also, with 7 other states though remaining more likely).

...And thanks to all who send in thoughts, ideas, "evidence," questions, etc. etc. throughout the year, even if I don't always find time to respond (trying to limit my time on this subject until real news warrants the time/effort).

Meanwhile, down at bottom a few miscellaneous examples from over the years of photoshopped, or otherwise non-living IBWOs, that give a hint of how readily a faked photo can be achieved...

But otherwise maybe just sign off to 2022 with this: ;)

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ADDENDA  12/22:

Will toss out just a couple more items/videos for perusal:

Matt Courtman got some further publicity on a local TV station for his efforts:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vU6sed1P7rM

Searcher Mike Collins takes issue with the Latta/Michaels interpretation of the drone video they released earlier (Mike thinks it’s a definite, normal Pileated vs. possibility of IBWO):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8x_oY2F2nU

I don’t agree fully with Mike’s analysis here, but present this for the sake of pointing out that, unlike the unanimity some presume on the part of so-called “IBWO Truthers” there are actually a number of disagreements.

I tentatively lean toward the bird being either an IBWO or a leucistic PIWO (...and there are those who still think it a Red-headed Woodpecker). I would urge folks who wish to analyze it further to try and find one of the enlarged/enhanced copies of the video to view. But no desire here to debate back-and-forth what the bird is; simply waiting instead for a video that requires no debate or analysis.

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ADDENDA2  12/24:

since I've started Addenda, may as well ramble on with a couple more:

1)  a reader sends me this li'l history of the Singer Tract I don't recall seeing before:

https://sites.rootsweb.com/~lamadiso/articles/singer.htm

2)  Some discussion of acoustic data over on FB lately, but a lingering problem is simply the lack of any "control" data-set; i.e. ideally we need to have ARUs (sound-recording devices) set up for an extended period in the deep woods of places like New Hampshire or Washington state or Montreal etc. (where there are no IBWOs) and then analyzed to see how many kent and DK-like sounds appear on those tapes, and whether they can be spectrographically (and diagnostically) distinguished from the relatively small (barely significant) sample of known IBWO sounds we have on record. Putative sounds can be interesting, but primarily only when they end up coming in conjunction with sightings, and less-so as stand-alone data.

As I noted elsewhere recently, by now IF the IBWO is ever fully documented what will be most significant of all is not the re-discovery, but rather what it exposes about the lack of rigor and science in ornithology that permitted the species to go missing over decades in the first place.

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ADDENDA3 12/29:

Another news site has now re-run this story carried previously by CNN, without (so far as I can tell) giving credit to the earlier reporter or site:

https://divya-bharat.com/ivory-billed-woodpecker-extinct-courtman-climate-ctpr/

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— End of Year and An Offbeat Recommendation —

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Suspect I may post again before end of year, but in case not, will take this opportunity to wish all a happy holiday season and new year... after what has been one of the wackiest years yet! with hyperbolic claims and avian Rorschach tests, inadequate to convince skeptics, continuing to ardently spring forth. I do hope USFWS will make a 'final' decision early next year (in either direction) and we can quit arguing over that Agency and just focus on searches.

Finally, a bit of an odd recommendation today. I suggested some books in the last post and will mention one more, though not pertaining directly to the IBWO. One of my loves is mathematics, and one favorite (but lesser-known) math expositor is Jason Rosenhouse (have enjoyed most of his books, and a blog he long ago wrote). Just recently read his 2020 volume, “Games For Your Mind,” all about logic, puzzles, and math philosophy. If you have an inherent interest, and some background, in these topics, which can be dry and tedious but which Rosenhouse treats well, I highly recommend this volume (will help if you already have some familiarity with the names/work of Lewis Carroll, Raymond Smullyan, Alfred Tarski, Bertrand Russell, Gödel, etc.).

Why do I even venture to mention such a book in the context of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker? Because I think actual strict, tight “logic” is often sorely missing in the debate over the IBWO, on the part of both skeptics and believers alike. Chris Haney touches on logic, writing a lot about thought “fallacies” in his book “Woody’s Last Laugh” though that is not the more formal, academic logic that Rosenhouse is addressing (and Rosenhouse touches on both "classical" and "non-classical" or "fuzzy" logic).

Again, this work won’t grab you if you don’t already have an interest in the area, but for those with some (mathematical) background I think this is the best, most accessible treatment of some difficult and rigorous ideas I have seen, and I wish this subject, which can be made fun by its connection to recreational math, was taught more widely and earlier-on in our educational system. To be clear, you will NOT read this book and think at any point, 'oh wow, THAT applies to the Ivory-billed Woodpecker!' but rather simply it may instill a greater appreciation of precise, critical, deductive thinking in general, in place of inductive assumptions and generalizations (...or, contrarily, it may turn you off entirely to the subject of academic/philosophical logic!).

With all that said, and despite the emphasis on 'logic,' I expect the final resolution of the Ivory-bill debate may well also involve a major dose of intuition!

In any event, onward to 2023....

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— Of Birds and Books —

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I don’t generally link to discoveries of rare animals/birds which occur every year because the case of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker is so different from, or non-analogous to, most other creatures, and I don’t like to draw too much comparison to other cases. But this latest instance of a found bird species does have a number of interesting parallels, as well as simply being fascinating in its own right:

https://www.audubon.org/news/like-finding-unicorn-researchers-rediscover-black-naped-pheasant-pigeon-bird

And with holiday shopping approaching I was planning (in a couple weeks) to mention a few IBWO books for any on your list who may just now be getting interested in the IBWO. Rather than waiting, I'll go ahead and tack those on here; mentioning only 4 of the now many books that address the Ivory-bill topic:

1)  Jerry Jackson’s classic In Search of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker — somewhat dated by now, and missing a lot of info from recent times, but still a good, broad overview of matters from one of the leading experts on the IBWO.

2)  Woody’s Last Laugh by Christopher Haney — recent, and easily the most comprehensive, and in some ways interesting, text on the whole subject; but also a bit of a slog to read; repetitive and somewhat disorganized and pedantic, but chockfull of info and thoughts that no other volume includes in one place; great notes and addenda as well.

3)  Noel Snyder’s The Travails of Two Woodpeckers — an important take from another major scholar of the Ivory-bill, though may be hard to find.

4)  Finally, for getting young people especially, interested in the Ivory-bill, Phillip Hoose’s The Race to Save The Lord God Bird is still a fun and quick read (…again not up-to-date, but a good read).

There are several more recent volumes, especially ones that focus on one or another particular aspect of the IBWO story -- they all make contributions to the subject, but also tend to have certain problems/issues (in my view) -- anyway, for initiation I recommend the above volumes, which I think of as foundational. Probably, even as I write these words there are additional, and important, IBWO books being written, still to come. The story is, most likely, not over (despite what you might hear over, ummm, the internet).

IF, at end of year, you’re looking to give money toward other prospective Ivory-bill-related causes you could consider The National Aviary with its IBWO search project in Louisiana:

https://www.aviary.org

…or, to Matt Courtman’s “Mission Ivorybill” effort in various locales:

https://www.gofundme.com/f/a-bird-worth-saving-a-fresh-approach?utm_source=customer&utm_medium=copy_link_all&utm_campaign=p_cp%20share-sheet&fbclid=IwAR2sWSvGEItOJ-7Q5tv2grih-Uq1Nn5bUb1Th4LPtHaKifqx8dlRyj-FMBM

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-- And Another Paper --

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Over on FB, Chris Sharpe links to this recent journal article focusing on government expenditures toward the IBWO (often a bone of contention):

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ibi.13144

A common issue in IBWO debates is how much money has been spent on the IBWO that could have gone toward the benefit of other, less-debated species. The authors argue, perhaps a bit simplistically, that  “continued expenditure of resources on the species are all exacerbated by prestige and affiliation bias;” i.e., and really to no surprise, the expertise and academic affiliations of a few of the players in this saga have unduly influenced the continuation of the debate (a sort of 'appeal to authority' fallacy), notably within the USFWS (the authors believe the IBWO should be declared extinct). One could almost look through the other end of the prism to say that the reason the IBWO debate is NOT taken seriously by so many is simply because the bulk of IBWO proponents LACK the expertise or academic affiliation which is often considered fundamental — i.e., a lot of noise from a bunch of rank-amateurs (it would be argued) — and that too is a bias of sorts (against those who may actually have excellent bird-identification skills, but have not written books, academic papers, lack PhDs. or academic affiliations, or other name-recognition, etc.).

I suppose the authors are attempting to explain, for those still baffled by it, why this whole debate continues on, but to fault "prestige" in "scientific discourse" seems a bit ill-guided as it is a natural (even logical) "bias" common to most scientific endeavors.

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— Two New Reads… inside and outside the box —

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Fresh piece in mainstream media (CNN) on some of the current happenings (focused on Matt Courtman) with the IBWO:

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/us/ivory-billed-woodpecker-extinct-courtman-climate-ctpr/

…and from long-time IBWO student David L. Martin a personal take on some past history:

https://fangsheath.wordpress.com/2022/10/25/edward-avery-mcilhenny-and-the-ivory-billed-woodpecker-in-the-coastal-forest-of-louisiana/?fbclid=IwAR18QtkFElxmr1AX56T7Fx6lH3KmrYJTnddp4hJsS1IGSqLLz2OJ5DyG9Jo

Still not seeing much likelihood of significant news in the very near-term, but just maybe between the end of January and end of February next year something could pop...

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-- Mid-October --

 _____________________________________

Dwight Norris, proprietor of the main Ivory-bill Facebook group, has been posting LOTS of basic, historical, past info on the IBWO for awhile now (he started taking a much more hands-on, and moderating approach to the account quite awhile back). Very interesting and helpful for the continuing flow of new folks focusing on this subject. Again, it doesn't necessarily move the needle forward as far as documenting the species now once-and-for-all, but it is material folks should be acquainted with.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368

And just for entertainment, one interesting thing he posted that I don't recall seeing before, and which is not too IBWO-pertinent, was a simulation of an overhead Passenger Pigeon flock, accurately depicting the description given in several historical writings: 

https://vimeo.com/92192308

Meanwhile, Gizmodo reports on a study concluding the Endangered Species Act is "toothless":

https://gizmodo.com/endangered-species-act-is-toothless-research-shows-1849648576

They conclude this because only a very tiny percentage of those species placed under the Act's protection have ever been saved, though they also note that the USFWS has always "been starved for resources" (also worth noting that the vast majority of species listed for protection have been plants and another 18% were invertebrates). What tends of course to get most publicized are the  larger-scale, but rarer, successes. The article further argues that the problem is that species tend to be given protections only when it is already too late and any real chance of saving them has passed. That fits with one of the arguments some IBWO skeptics make, saying that even if a few Ivory-bills remain they are still functionally extinct and unsalvageable. Not a view we all hold. Reminds me a bit again of what excellent Tennessee birder Bill Pulliam once said to me of the possibility of IBWOs in western Tennessee (where he had searched): 'If Ivory-bills are there they've shown they can make it this far and deserve to just be left alone.'

No word, as of this writing, from Matt Courtman as to any upcoming Monday Zoom meetings. He did post on FB a photo of a Tensas cavity he found interesting:

Always hard to tell from a photo, but the tree's girth doesn't look promising for an IBWO, although for a roosthole it could be adequate. Moreover, the hole doesn't appear fresh, but more like an old hole likely enlarged by other critters over time (I see holes like this every year in my area, which is definitely not IBWO-country), but am not on site to see the cavity up close, so will wish him well in his endeavor.

Soon the leaves will be falling from the trees (if not already started) and that will aid searchers.

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ADDENDUM:

A new piece in BirdWatching Daily on the USFWS de-listing review process:

https://www.birdwatchingdaily.com/news/conservation/ivory-bill-delisting-update-feds-looking-at-everything/

— Road Ahead? —

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“Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,

Creeps in this petty pace from day to day…

Life… is a tale old by an idiot, 

Full of sound and fury,

Signifying nothing.”

     — Shakespeare (Macbeth)

Less than 4 months left in yet another year… these years cycle by almost in predictable fashion anymore… some initial hope, some rumors or anticipation of something to come, further debates, and in the end stiiiiiiiiill nothing definitive or conclusive…. this year, in particular, has grown stranger and stranger as it proceeded. :(

Off-hand I don’t see much likelihood of any major IBWO news between now and end of year (…and by ‘major’ I mean something in the way of evidence that believers and skeptics will mutually agree on). Perhaps, if we get lucky, something during the first quarter of next year, maybe from the Latta group (during which the USFWS should also be announcing its final decision on de-listing). I’ll be happy if we just get to the end of 2022 without a major-level hoax being perpetrated as I was predicting a year ago.

Still plenty of IBWO chatter over on Facebook but mostly the same history, ideas, theories, arguments, speculations, undocumented claims, backchannel-squabbling, sock puppetry, rehashed over and over; like treading water endlessly, barely moving forward. And it’s still the case that believers analyzing their own evidence, within their own bubble, and concluding that ‘the evidence shows an Ivory-bill!’ gets us nowhere. Only when agnostics, skeptics/denialists, and/or independents analyze evidence and conclude it shows an IBWO will progress be made (and yet most such folks don't even think it worth their time to engage in such effort). Analysis of ambiguous data by those already committed to the IBWO and long-entrenched in their own viewpoint is, rightly or wrongly, forever perceived as too biased and unobjective to be taken seriously, or even presumed credible. IBWO believers analyzing IBWO evidence just doesn't get us very far if there is any wiggle room for interpretation... might as well be Russians telling us how great their Special Operations in Ukraine are going. :(  We're left, spinning our wheels, feeling as if progress is being made but the needle has barely budged... basically, stiiiiiiill awaiting a nesthole and pics. The Ivory-bill story is in some ways the greatest overall narrative ever in American ornithology, yet in need of a ‘happily-ever-after’ ending… lest, alternatively, it turns out to be little more than an adult fairy tale.

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— Quick Note — CANCELLED

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NOTE:  Matt Courtman now announces that this event has been cancelled due to illness:

Haven’t heard much from Matt Courtman of late but he has another Monday night Zoom meeting scheduled for tomorrow 9/12/22, once again with scientist/author Christopher Haney:

https://www.facebook.com/events/1134677147140763/

(I recommended Haney’s volume on the IBWO back HERE.)

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-- Closing Out August --

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Several possible topics been thinking of addressing, in part stemming from ‘discussions’ at Facebook, where, as one poster writes:  “What a bizarre circus act this group has become." 

(…reaching a point where psychiatrists just may find the FB sites more interesting and enlightening than birders do!).

Too much to choose from though, so instead I’ll just pass along some other entertainment to end the month:

...bunch of fresh IBWO artwork from Twitter in August (some interesting, some less so):

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23avianaugust2022%20%2Bwoodpecker&src=typed_query&f=top

...and this is old, but I only recently stumbled across it (sums up, where we remain in the minds of too many, unfortunately):

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-- Repeating Cycles --

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I found a graph on the Web that seems to depict how over and over again excitement for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker seems to grow and grow, only to always fall off in the end.

As I tried to warn early on, the submissions to the USFWS were largely, as is becoming routine, over-hyped/promoted/anticipated, and thus hard to tell how much impact they will ultimately have. But mixed in with the weak, ambiguous, and outright bonkers “evidence” was, to be sure, some intriguing data, and perhaps more will come before USFW makes any final decision early next year (…or, is it even conceivable that they could extend the comment period yet again!?; I doubt it). Methinks there's a bit of a David (‘true believers’) versus Goliath (most of the birding community) battle going on putting pressure on USFWS. One can both imagine them reviewing comments with belly laughs, but also imagine them being intrigued by specific elements. The public comment period I s’pose is intended in part to give the appearance of openness and transparency… and yet there’s a lot about the whole process that is not very open or transparent.

IBWO interest and enthusiasm seems to run in cycles that are almost getting predictable, and tiresome to experience. Even some of the recent Facebook activity and discussion is beginning to stall and implode on itself… and yet, experienced, knowledgeable observers still claim sightings in multiple states… and if just one of them is right, well, then the species exists. Personally, I guess I still like the probabilities of at least one of them being right versus all of them being looneybins! ;))

[p.s…. OK, the actual labels being used for the graph above (of human sexual response) that I’ve blocked out, read as follows: desire, excitement, plateau, orgasm, resolution]  ;)

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— Yawn… (more miscellany) —

 ——————-----------------------------———

1)  Again, a bit bemused by how little serious discussion has been generated from the latest USFWS 30-day comment period… a sign of just how many folks have simply left the IBWO room, or if they remain, are still awaiting something more definitive.

It was always incredible that way back with the Luneau video, equally expert, experienced birders could not even agree, whether certain frames were showing the ventral or dorsal side of the wing — how is it even possible that that can’t be settled!? — and still those same-type battles are present today… pause, freeze-frame, re-play as much as you want and people still can’t agree on the features being seen in virtually any submitted video.

2)  Hahh!… Big spender biologist Jerry Coyne is offering $100 to anyone who can offer evidence 'convincing the birding community' that the species still exists:

https://whyevolutionistrue.com/2022/08/21/still-no-sign-of-the-ivory-billed-woodpecker-despite-repeated-claims-of-sightings/

(…in the past, rewards of between $10,000 and $50,000 have failed to produce the needed documentation, but maybe Jerry’s offer will get lucky ;))

3)  A reader points me to an old timey book with chapter on IBWOs, “The Red Headed Family,” starting on page 23 (I’ve seen a LOT of old references, but had missed this one):

https://ia600703.us.archive.org/27/items/bywaysbirdnotes00thomrich/bywaysbirdnotes00thomrich.pdf

4)  Since IBWO evidence seems to now be getting disclosed publicly months, even years after its actual collection, I hope that means that more is being analyzed right now that we may have to look forward to seeing in the next 6 months.

5)  I'll just note that this week marks the 5-year anniversary since the all-too-early death of Tennessee's Bill Pulliam, one of my favorite figures in this whole IBWO saga. His search in the Moss Island region of Western Tennessee made for some interesting reading over a dozen years ago. I could never get a very straight answer from him as to whether he really thought IBWOs dwelled there, or how much followup searching was ever done... BUT he did once tell me that IF they were there they deserved to just be left alone... IF they had made it this far they could continue to make it on their own just fine.

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— More Odds and Ends —

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1)  Scanning over the Web for responses to the 30-day USFWS comments I’m not sure if I see more serious discussion and interest… or, more just mockery and exasperation. Tough call! :(

The debate may have reached a stage of diminishing returns… until a photo/video can be produced which, when opened on a smartphone will have everyone agreeing, ‘oh wow, THAT’S an Ivory-billed Woodpecker.'

2)  Project Principalis has posted new crops of their USFWS submission here:

https://projectcoyoteibwo.com/2022/08/17/new-unenhanced-crops-of-drone-clips-at-full-speed/?fbclid=IwAR1OxG_0OpAs1aA600PmZaELarDopbmkohtGD6P5fcI8J0vf3BC68zelbrw

3)  Am busy with so many non-IBWO things right now that it’s almost impossible for me to even keep up with the musings over at the IBWO FB pages. But I did notice a reference to an individual claiming possession of IBWO eggs and feathers — perhaps the original post has already been deleted because I couldn’t find it, but so far as I know possession of such would definitely be against the law and perhaps a matter for law enforcement to look into (possession of feathers, nests, eggs of most North American songbirds, with but a few exceptions, is against the law, except under special circumstances or with a special permit). Anyway, if anyone knows the fuller story on that, which I missed, feel free to fill me in.

4)  The largest IBWO FB group has been stuck at ~6200 members for awhile now — I had once offhandedly predicted it would hit about 6400 members by mid-August before plateauing, and almost wonder if the current status is an indicator of just how little all the USFWS submissions have moved the needle for IBWO interest; perhaps as many frustrated folks now leaving the topic behind as are joining?

5) …and while biding time, here’s just some fun with pareidolia:

https://pleated-jeans.com/2019/05/28/pareidolia-examples/

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— A Reverse Midas Touch —

 —————————————————————

Once again just not seeing much in-depth discussion in serious birding circles of the recently-submitted USFWS “evidence” — demonstrating how utterly exhausted of this debate most experienced birders are (it is verrry time-consuming to work through this data). There’s been several brief comments on the Arkansas bird listserv (which not too surprisingly David Luneau got going… and all focused on Mark Michaels’ video), and a bit of chatter on other listservs, but overall not much. By now the ‘believer’ community is seen as so cultish, so biased/delusional, so bonkers even, that I don’t know how we ever get the best, most experienced birders out there to return to the table and peruse such debatable evidence? Again, essentially NON-disputable photo/video is required.

And I fully understand this take, since I too am trying to avoid getting dragged into endless conversations that I know to be unresolvable… but my opinion is not worth diddly anyway… There are 100s of truly excellent field birders in this country, dozens each in S.C., La., and Arkansas alone. The current sort of “evidence” needs to be rigorously-reviewed by a dozen or more of them for their opinion (though I think I know what they’ll say). I’m not much interested in what Facebookers, Twitterers, weekend birders, duckhunters, backyard bird feeders, most of the public, nor bloggers like myself have to say about the latest data — I’d like to hear from the best of the best-and-most-experienced observers, which seems unlikely to happen. Worse yet, I’m not even sure that if one of those “experts” did find something truly intriguing in a recent piece of video, they could even bring themselves to say so publicly. Within birding, the IBWO topic has become radioactive and, for one's reputation, has taken on a reverse Midas touch.

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ADDENDUM:

While bopping around the Web I keep seeing the Michaels’ film show up different places BUT only in its original form, and viewers being disappointed. You HAVE TO watch the zoomed and slowed down versions, and preferably on a large screen. Viewing only the original clip or on a small mobile device will not lend you the interesting features. (I might say more about it later, though I'd prefer to just find a good discussion of it somewhere and link to that.)

-- M. Michaels' Video --

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Many folks may feel overwhelmed by the final slew of comments in to USFWS, which unfortunately came flooding in largely at the very end. It was 29 days of not much, except for the latest Harrison evidence, and then suddenly being bludgeoned by an avalanche of downloads (would’ve been nice if they had been spread out over the 30 days, but oh well). Anyway, if I had to pick just one comment for readers-pressed-for-time to look over it is Mark Michaels (National Aviary) here, which is receiving a fair amount of chatter (again this is from Louisiana in case you get confused by all the different locales, that claims and videos are now coming from):

https://www.regulations.gov/comment/FWS-R4-ES-2020-0109-0210

Within his comment are actually 8 separate downloads (and, depending on your system, some take quite awhile to complete), but begin with his overall presentation 20220722 (the key drone footage of a flying bird, which appears to be a woodpecker with interesting field marks, begins around the 12-minute mark, of a 28-min. presentation, and is best viewed on as large a screen as you have available). Unfortunately, Mark admits somewhat having to rush the preparation of this presentation, so it is not as polished as it could be, and there are no arrows, circles, marks, etc. to help guide the viewer through the footage — you will want to freeze-frame and patiently replay video parts multiple times. And then also look over some of his other 7 comment offerings as you have time and inclination (especially the zoomed version of "video3Landing").  The video, BTW, is from February of 2021. I am by no means convinced this is an IBWO (for one thing, once again I don't think leucism has been adequately discussed,and also potential issues of artifacts and lighting), BUT there are many interesting frames, and some have already voiced the view of ‘what else could it possibly be!?’

In that light I have NO interest in arguing back-and-forth here what the bird is because we will settle nothing, and frankly we are mostly riff-raff in the birding world! What I would again be interested in (though it almost certainly won’t happen) is to see a dozen or so of the most widely-respected and known field birders out there tell us what they see in this video. The variety of opinion might be interesting, or perhaps all would find reasons to downplay the clip; I’m not sure, but I think this video is open to more insights than most we've been privy to. Unfortunately, many of the “best” birders out there simply won't spend time on a debatable IBWO video anymore and I wish it were otherwise, but I also understand their utter frustration. I know of birders who won't go near the IBWO debate any longer for fear that it will taint them... not to mention viewing it as a waste of their time. :(

One final note: I was disappointed to see prominent ornithologist and skeptic Mark Robbins quoted as saying (of the bird) “it could be anything.” Well, unless maybe you're looking on a phone or small mobile device, no it could not be anything! I'm not fond of hyperbole from either side: don’t like believers saying that a crystal clear photo is now required (it isn’t) or that evidence thus far put forth is “proof” (again, no), and also no, this could NOT be a Ruby-throated Hummingbird or any of several hundred other North American species!… perhaps I’m being a bit harsh, ‘cuz I think I know what Robbins meant, and the quote may well be taken out of context (as the press routinely does), but it still grates, and this is an interesting bird on film, so excuse me for venting a little  ;)

...Anyway, will send you off into the weekend with this old John Anderson piece I used to link to on occasion, and which the Michaels' piece somehow reminded me of:

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ADDENDUM:

It occurs to me I ought reiterate a point I brought up earlier which is that it is a shame that USFWS simply sits there and views these presentations without asking any questions or comments (this footage begs for questions). Even better would be to have some independent outside ornithologists there to aid in asking questions. What does USFW do, take this material to the inner Agency for broader consideration by others, but when the presenter is no longer present to answer questions or offer clarifying explanations? I’m sure they have reason for their policy (though it may be nothing more than time efficiency), but it leaves me scratching my head as to how this is good scientific practice? Meanwhile, some questions and commentary that could've been dealt with at the time, will instead fill up certain social media circles.

— Sleuthing Saluda —

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Well, have canned the much longer post originally scheduled for today. :( After sleuthing around the internet yesterday to learn who the SC claimant is and becoming momentarily slightly more hopeful (...but then using Google Earth to explore his property and becoming less hopeful), I received overnight a series of emails from him that make things much less clearcut and far more problematic, and a story not worth me spending time on (...though again I'll say that if this tale was ever authenticated it would easily be the greatest story in the annals of American birdwatching). USFWS is supposedly investigating the case, so I'll end simply mentioning that the observer also claims to have Bachman's Warbler present on his property or nearby (he even sent me pictures), so gee, er, ummm, they may wish to pursue that as well, and make it a two-fer... ;)

Am hoping with the USFWS comment period finally over, all the hullabaloo will die down between now and November elections, and I can get back to other matters for awhile.

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-- Saluda Questions etc. -- +Addendum

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For those who don't understand my issues with the Saluda, SC story here is a verbatim copy of the questions (in no particular order) I have sent along to John Williams. Clarification on these matters may well yet come forth, I just don't know at this point:

1)  You mention that one USFWS official knows the name of the SC observer… has she met him/talked to him, been to the site, or merely knows a name that has been given to her?  And is she the only USFWS official who knows his name or are there others? and how many, if any, outside yourself and USFWS know his supposed name?

2)  You report a lot of measurements the observer made and sent along to you, but has any other independent person verified any of those measurements, or you just have his word to go by? 

3)  A 24-year old female IBWO is referenced as being known by “its markings” — any idea what those markings were that stayed consistent for 24 years?

4)  The observer talks of the IBWO nest as “burrows” with various passageways… how does he know that? did he climb the trees to investigate the cavities? 

He also talks of the birds returning to the same nestholes many years… while that could be the case (there is variability), woodpeckers often build new holes every year as part of the re-bonding ritual each new breeding season; even if they return to old holes, those holes usually get worked on and enlarged (the hole shown isn’t very large for having been used several years).

5)  the observer states that 80-90% of trees in IBWO feeding range should be hollow and 70-90 ft. high — seems a pretty absurd statement… and he talks of “water oaks and willow that have rotten cores” as IBWO preferences while at same time talking of the importance of “alive trees”. My point simply being that I don’t think he’s all that consistent in his note-taking and observations, only a small sample of which we’re even seeing.

6)  At one point there is a list of other birds in IBWO territory and the Bachman’s Warbler is included (another likely extinct species) — if one was merely talking historically that might be OK, but it sounds like he is talking about the present or even about his own property? (in which case not OK to include Bachman’s Warbler). Or is it perhaps s’posed to say Bachman’s Sparrow, which would make more sense?

7)  You have from the start simply assumed that the nesthole moving object is a bird bill — that is a subjective presumption that you never validate or consider other options.

8)  What verification do you have that this individual is whoever he says he is? Any actual authentication that he ever attended college? What is his current profession (if any)? It sounds like as a full adult he is still living at home with mother or family; is that the case? Does he have any criminal or mental health record? In short, there’s nothing significant here that lends this anonymous, unknown person any credibility for me. (and if I can’t establish credibility I can’t take for granted much of what he says).

9)  Have you met him and visited the site? Has ANYone relevant met him or visited the site? If not, why not? or has ALL communication been done online?

10)  He speaks of the birds returning to the same site for decades, but then also mentions observing a female “for the first time in nearly a decade” in 2016… does that mean he generally didn’t see IBWOs from 2006 to 2016, or only that he didn’t see any females those years (including I guess the 24-yr-old female that fledged in 1998)? Again, consistency???

11)  At one point he talks of “The God Good Bird” — is that a misprint or is that the actual phrase he used; just seems odd (there are a lot of common terms for the IBWO, but that’s not a phrasing I’m familiar with).

12)  He tells of seeing an “all black female” IBWO in his youth, but of course females are not all black; they have the same prominent white saddle as males.

13)  You/he say there are additional photos/videos, but I assume we are being shown the best available, or are you claiming there are even better ones being withheld for some reason?

14)  The observer claims to have previously “reached out” to “professional entities” in SC about the birds earlier on and gotten no response… have any of them been re-contacted since then and shown any interest?

15)  And yes, it would be nice to have a real understanding of why the observer demands so much privacy but loves telling these fine tall tales that can’t be confirmed, and has failed over so many years to gain better evidence or pics, or searched the hole for DNA? Does he have any real understanding of the importance of documenting these birds? It’s nice and convenient to talk about privacy and conservation concerns and respect for the species… but it’s also a lack of transparency that can be earmarks of… well, something much worse.

16)  Is any professional, academic/university (PhD.) ornithologist actively exploring this story and/or visiting the site?

17)  Are the birds currently out of the area (not being seen), but expected to return in the winter months, and if that were the case is any preparation being made to document them for real? Or, are they being seen right now?

18)  You write of the validity and logic of the storyline, but there is NO real validity established; just a quirky off-the-charts narrative (and the usual blurry photos, interpreted in a preferred manner) from a lone unknown individual with a largely unknown or sketchy background.

Just some final comments: The tree is described as “large,” yet doesn’t appear from the photos exceedingly large (especially girth-wise) compared to known IBWO nest trees of the past. Nor does the hole appear (though hard to tell) to have the shape historically typical for IBWOs. Nor does the habitat/surroundings appear at all typical for IBWO either. None of these things are too important by themselves, but the fact that there are so many oddities/implausibilities to the story does not yield much confidence in it. And again, I get no real sense of the knowledge-level, experience, or motivations of the observer from the few actions and conversation on tape.

This is obviously a controversial topic, making it all the more important to solidly establish ahead of time the knowledge and credibility of any individual making such incredible claims — that hasn’t been done here for the readers; indeed, it’s been evaded.

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Meanwhile, in other news, I've taken at least a brief look at most of the 3 final "comments" sent in to USFWS (8/10) and will be perusing some of it further. If you've been closely following this saga, most of it (not all) is previous material being re-packaged/presented (be aware that some of it is ill-organized and some is choppy, and a few entries took over 30 mins. to simply download on my system). None of it meets the USFWS request for video that multiple observers can easily automatically agree upon. The one main new, and interesting piece (but still, no slam dunk) that I recommend readers look at is Mark Michaels' narration of drone footage (especially the slo-mo version) of a flying bird from their studies. But we are truly near a saturation-point for footage of this sort that serious birders will even tolerate spending time on. On the one hand I'm all for putting out on the table ALL evidence that might aid/support the case of the IBWO; on the other hand I also realize that continuing with this level of ambiguous evidence simply turns more and more people off to the entire subject, while left shaking their heads. :(

ADDENDUM 8/11:

There is yet another new comment posted today from Mark Graham on the USFWS site:

https://www.regulations.gov/comment/FWS-R4-ES-2020-0109-0211

(I'm not clear if all these 'late' comments actually came in by the deadline and just took awhile to post, or if USFWS did not have a hard-and-fast deadline?)

BTW, the Mark Michaels' posting I mentioned above is now also available at their own Project Principalis site here (again, worth a look):

https://projectcoyoteibwo.com/2022/08/11/national-aviary-project-principalis-final-submissions-on-the-proposed-delisting-of-the-ivory-billed-woodpecker/

Also, today I sleuthed around the internet to discover the identity of the Saluda "observer"(obviously won't give out his name), and at least from initial indications he seems to be a perfectly reasonable, potentially credible individual; still leaves lots of questions, but off to a good start.