— Evidence Schmevidence — +Addenda

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The USFWS latest IBWO comment period is officially over [possibly some late entries may yet appear]. Will repeat again what the USFWS was (quite reasonably) seeking, in their own words:

“The Service is seeking new information during the 30-day reopening, including clear video or photographic evidence of the presence of the ivory-billed woodpecker that can be repeatedly interpreted the same way by independent observers, such as definitive photographic evidence collected by a field observer. Comments provided during the initial proposal and the previous reopening do not need to be resubmitted.”

What they received, as expected, was mostly meaningless verbal accounts from folks usually giving no credentials for their reports, and others who (embarrassingly) included clear unmistakable still photos of (no surprise) Pileateds. Most of the comments (and pics) simply reinforce the perception that, even after all this time, people are widely ignorant of this species and how to identify it. The believer community continues to largely generate greater skepticism -- as critics never tire of pointing out, it’s a funny coincidence that every decent identifiable picture submitted is of a NON-IBWO (usually a Pileated) leaving only blurry, ambiguous, poor pics to even possibly be an IBWO… as has been the case for decades (well, maybe ‘funny’ isn’t the word for it?)… and  yet many believers seem oblivious as to why they are scoffed at, while the quality of evidence, the scientific rigor, the critical-thinking and credibility in this arena has mostly strayed downhill, sometimes into LaLa Land, and naivete and gullibility grows.

Nothing submitted came close to meeting the high bar that USFWS specifically requested. This was basically a 30-day friggin' waste of time -- don’t even know what the purpose of an extended month-long comment period was (probably some sort of procedural requirement), when the actual decision is being put off for 6 whole months. IF good evidence is to come along it will probably be next winter (…but then I’ve been saying that for about 15 winters in a row ;). IF no such evidence arises it’s hard to see, given the pressures upon them, how USFWS will have any other choice but follow the consensus and de-list, despite the vocal opponents of such.

The main substantive new submission in to USFWS came from Bobby Harrison. I don’t wish to feed more ammunition to the skeptics so won’t address Harrison’s tightly-rehearsed, year-and-a-half-old video in detail at the moment other than to say that, while interesting, I don’t find it compelling, convincing, rigorous, objective, nor even terribly credible, but rather just another typical example of the incessant over-promising and under-delivering that has marked the last several years. For folks who want to gobble it up though, hey I can find you some Loch Ness Monster footage you ought reeeally enjoy….

I assume the stunning lack of discussion of his video in actual serious birding circles is a reflection of how little time or attention science-minded folks think it merits… though maybe duckhunter sites will find it irresistible. Quack, quack.

It’s also problematic that USFWS does not ask questions at these presentations… Bobby's clip and analysis begs for questions to be posed, and not the softballs that come from the believer community. It’s a major dereliction of duty to NOT ask questions of such. Bobby’s film is legit, but what if someone offers up a pretty obviously fake, CGI or whatever, video of an IBWO for the Agency… is USFWS just going to sit there, nodding, taking it all in!? Do the officials who watched Bobby’s clip even have any expertise/knowledge/competency to adjudge what they were viewing?… I assume so... but would have a better idea if they posed questions along the way. And then there's all the lovely Pileated pics sent to USFWS by sincere folks declaring them to be IBWO -- is it against USFWS to publicly respond by informing them of their confusion? a possible teaching moment. For now, we seem doomed to 20 more years of Nessie photography and PIWO pics masquerading ad nauseam as IBWO, when all we need is one photo from an automatic remote camera trained on a nest/roost hole or active foraging site. Without that, this 3-ringed circus atmosphere will continue to grow.

Color me peeved.

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ADDENDUM:

Turns out there were 6 late comments turned in to USFWS that have now been additionally posted — I’m a bit uneasy that so many folks waited so late to post their material; it’s as if they were too afraid to leave time for skeptics to react to what they were posting (of course skeptics can still respond, but just not on the USFWS site). At any rate the final postings are here:

https://www.regulations.gov/document/FWS-R4-ES-2020-0109-0166/comment?postedDateFrom=2022-08-09&postedDateTo=2022-08-09

Not certain why, but Bobby Harrison simply posted his brief videos again, this time without narration; they were previously in a supplemental section (and of course available several other places as well), but I guess he wanted to have them somewhere on the main comment page.

Dan Dullum’s post is probably the closest to my own take on all these matters so I’ll recommend reading it also.

Matt Courtman does a good job of summarizing/overviewing his take on things, so you’ll want to read his entry (though nothing too new in it).

And finally there is John D. Williams’ lengthy, long-awaited entry (which will require a lot more time, including by myself, to slowly go through text and all photos/videos). For now I’ll simply say that, if authenticated as true and accurate, the (implausible?) tale he tells will literally likely go down as the greatest story in the history of American ornithology!! — that of course is a tall order. And while some photos and video are interesting, others much less so. But truly what I think is most interesting is the narrative given toward the end by the purported South Carolina reporter of these (multiple) IBWOs, assuming he really exists — seriously, there is so much sketchiness here and unanswered questions/details, I’m unwilling to assume anything about this odd storyline. But it is certain to get a lot of chatter going (though again, like the Harrison video, it's possible the chatter may be relegated to IBWO bubbles and not serious birding or ornithology sites?). Keep in mind as you read John's narrative, not just what he's telling you, but how much is being left out, or assumed.

[added:  I will be sending John a list of questions before the weekend per his request below (even though I suspect he is not at liberty to answer several of them) — BUT I must be blunt, having re-read this piece I am even more underwhelmed, and give it less credence, than upon the first reading; just doesn’t pass the smell test -- with that said, would love to be convinced, because it's a fabulous storyline, but too many problems.]

ADDENDUM  8/10:

And now there are yet 3 additional comments posted to USFWS just today:

https://www.regulations.gov/document/FWS-R4-ES-2020-0109-0166/comment?sortBy=postedDate&sortDirection=desc

It'll take me a day or two to get to these, but I'll probably post the questions I'm sending to John Williams tomorrow or Friday here at the blog.

— Odds & Ends —

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1)  First, will just note that Matt Courtman holds his next monthly Zoom get-together tomorrow (Monday) at 8pm EDT.

2)  Some folks seem to keep panicking over the USFWS possible removal of the IBWO from the endangered list. Apparently it scared Bobby Harrison so much he decided to quit sitting on a year-and-a-half-old video and figure out some way to use it as evidence for IBWOs existing (at least 20+ months ago; no telling if that particular bird is still alive).

But guess what, everyone can still search for the bird even if it’s de-listed, you can report it, you can research it, you can doctor photos of Pileateds if you wish — nothing really changes. The private lands this species may reside on stay the same; the public lands are largely protected for a great many reasons beyond any IBWO presence (and of course all U.S. songbirds are protected from harm). The main thing that changes if this bird is de-listed is that the USFWS subjects itself to absolute ridicule and decreased credibility if the species is then ultimately documented, and it must then backtrack — that ought be the real fear, the USFWS seen as incompetent. I suspect the de-listing recommendation came about to start with because the Agency already felt pummeled and ridiculed from a great many quarters for NOT listing the IBWO as extinct, and only when it encountered the vocal backlash of the ‘believer’ community did it suddenly become aware of the ‘rock and hard place’ it was betwixt — open to ridicule and egg-on-its-face in either direction just depending upon which one finally holds sway.

3)  Am curious why I've heard nothing more about the ACONE automated bird-viewing system that was deployed in the Big Woods search and, to my knowledge, not used since in any IBWO searches (if anyone previously involved is able to speak on that)? It had plenty of mechanical/operating problems, and perhaps was expensive to deploy/analyze, but even with all its downtime and trying conditions it seemed like one of the better ideas that was attempted back in the day… and all these years later, surely the programming and performance (even efficiency) could only be improved by now. Is it just a case of no other corridor or opening seeming worthy of deployment since the Big Woods (which seems hard to imagine), or just too expensive/difficult to maintain/monitor/analyze the results, or something else? I’ll repeat what I’ve said previously, the single greatest failure (out of so many) in this saga, has been the failure of ANY remote, automatic camera system to capture a clear, indisputable photo of an IBWO (while having little trouble capturing pileateds, red-heads, hawks, raccoons, possums, squirrels, deer, etc.etc.). Robots have capabilities that humans will never have, and don’t suffer human frailties, limitations, and excuses, yet even robotic systems, have not definitively documented this bird.

4)  About a week remaining in the current comment period to USFWS. One thing I'm not clear on is the exact procedure for contributing yet further evidence (and there ought be some) to USFWS over the next 5 months (well after this comment period) before the Agency makes its decision? 

Anyway, I suspect that the next week may be interesting... and, not necessarily in a good way. 

8-/ 

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ADDENDUM:

videos don’t lie… so I guess JFK’s limo driver assassinated him:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6vWgMDq6tk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A--W4xRqLzw

ADDENDUM2:

Roshan Vignarajah is a young birder bitten by the Ivory-bill bug who has been doing his own YouTube blog, and has started a few Ivory-bill entries as seen here:

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLwU1HS6IwGHxRz8YTREqVS7ECF0b_8vcV

ADDENDUM 8/5:

TGIF...

-- Awaiting Evidence --

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With all the talk of evidence these days, just realized it's about the 16th anniversary since this memorable piece of evidence was originally introduced (just to take a sad trip down memory lane...); sometimes I wonder how much progress we've really made since then?:

(blast from the past)

Still a tad flabbergasted at the scarcity of in-depth discussion of Harrison's latest vid -- as if skeptics don't even find it worthy of their time!? Probably an omen of how tiresome birders find these poor-to-inconclusive offerings.  The closest thing I've seen to a substantive post anywhere is this one (by Henning) from BirdForum:

https://www.birdforum.net/threads/new-ivory-billed-woodpecker-info.426599/page-4#post-4356103

The poster is mainly concerned with photographic artifacts, so I'll just toss out a related concern. Bobby admits he was using a 20-year-old camera. Photographers take good care of their equipment, BUT still a 20-year-old camera is likely to have some micro-abrasions/scratches, imperfections, dust particles, etc. that may cause further artifacts in stills or film especially when the camera is moving (...and while Bobby himself points out a few artifacts in the clip, that by no means rules out other unrecognized artifactual elements).

Right now, what we need, above all, is to show that this species simply still exists... period! IF you're interested in money or fame or publication or other self-serving matters, then legal or conservation or procedural matters may be important and delay things, but IF you're truly interested in the bird itself, the immediate real concern ought be to get any actual good evidence made public ASAP to establish that, lo-and-behold, it lives. IF I captured video that I felt clearly showed an IBWO in the wild it would be in the hands of a dozen or so experienced birders whose judgment I respect within two weeks, and at virtually the same time it would be on at least a couple of internet sites... difficult for me to even take seriously video held back longer than that --  it's an admission that the video is not that good and gives off the appearance of needing time to figure out how to plausibly 'spin' it into an IBWO that people might somehow, possibly, perhaps, just maybe with some coaxing, believe (moreover, the provenance of any such long-held video must then be examined: who all has handled it and done what to it, when). I don't mind there being a plenitude of fuzzy, debatable videos for this species, I just mind having them quickly adjudged as persuasive or 'proof' or otherwise hyped beyond their value. Every such over-hyped video and over-the-top claim, simply adds yet one more nail into the IBWO's coffin in the public eye, while making 'believers' appear more foolhardy than they've already been painted. So until truly clearcut evidence is produced (if ever) I'll continue to try to tamp down the enthusiasm and anticipation over weak-to-mediocre-to-speculative evidence. The problem in the Ivory-bill realm is not that skeptics have ever really won their case, it's that believers constantly shoot themselves in the foot.

But, onward we trudge. So here is a recent article from Arkansas that includes a 35-minute interview with David Luneau (not too much new if you’re a long-time follower of the topic, but a nice overview of several things):

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2022/jul/27/capitol-scott-searching-for-the-ivory-billed-woodpecker/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_ArkansasOnline

Meanwhile, folks have about 11 more days to get their very nice Pileated photos uploaded to the USFWS.  :(

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-- Weekend Interlude --

 -----------------------------------------------------

Feel like injecting a li'l humor... in the event the next post or two aren't very lighthearted. Old Tom Toles cartoon from back in the heyday of the Big Woods search:

...Still seeing no significant or extended discussion at serious birding sites of the latest video "evidence" which probably says a lot about how dismissively the bulk of the birding community regards it, with about 16 days left for comments to USFWS.

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-- A Li'l Followup To the Harrison Clip --

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I s’pose I should’ve expected it, but am amazed at the wide range of views I’m seeing around forums, quora, birding sites, social media etc.etc. on Harrison's almost 2-years-old 10 seconds; amazed at how different people can see so many widely differing things — and that is exactly the sort of Rorschach-like outcome that doesn't help matters. If people are viewing the video on a mobile apparatus that is a problem right away; but admittedly I’m viewing it on a laptop which may also be problematic. Big screen would be best, but certainly wouldn’t resolve all the problems.

I haven’t yet seen a real, deep discussion of the video I’d be willing to link to (the Birdforum site is especially disappointing, but then I know how sick they are of this debate); mostly just a lot of opinions/assertions being put out really not taking all variables into consideration (also,a lot of mockery). I know what I think the bird is too, but not willing to say ‘cuz it serves no purpose except to create unresolvable arguments. It would be neat to see the video thrashed about on the “Frontiers of Bird Identification” listserv — is that still operating?  I can’t seem to find it… in fact I can’t even get the ABA general site for state listservs to boot up the last several days…? Anyone know anything about that. Very bad timing  :(  (or, if the sites ARE operating for others let me know).

Anyway, here’s what I do wish — ‘cuz we don’t really need a lot more commentary from ‘believers’ on the video; they are so committed/invested already, that their views will be routinely dismissed as un-objective and non-credible by the bulk of the birding community — what I would dearly like to hear are the fleshed-out opinions of renowned birders long and well-respected for their field identification skills: Sibley, Crossley, Kaufman, Dunne, Jackson, certainly come to mind, but there are many others (names not so familiar to the general public, but well-established within birding circles) — I’d like to hear what 10 - 12 of those folks, who have actually observed, photographed, painted, written about bird identification for decades, see in the video (and what they think of Bobby's assertions)… especially if there is any consensus among them (there may not be, which would be interesting in itself). But so far, just the sounds of silence from those I’d most want to hear from, and such silence itself may speak volumes? (unless they are on the listservs that I can't seem to pull up). [OK, added: this morning 7/22, I was finally able to open the various state listservs again, as well as "ID Frontiers," and sure enough, NO significant discussion of the latest video, which is probably pretty telling by itself of how unseriously the birding community as a whole takes these now almost routine, erratic, blurry video releases and claims.... though, with more time, perhaps some discussion will ensue?]

I’ll end with what just might be my favorite comment into USFWS so far:

“I have a 30 second video of a Ivory Billed woodpecker but it’s 46mb and this site only allows 10mb. How can I get it to you?”

Somehow seems to typify the befuddled state we're in... and so it goes…. ;)

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— Are We Having Fun Yet!? -- After 17 Years — +Addenda

 ——————————-----------------———

Happy Anniversary, to me! Incredibly, this month marks the 17th anniversary of this blog, which I started, envisioning a li’l news service to run for 1 or 2 years recounting the activities of an IBWO recovery program; and little guessing the controversy that would ensue, within a couple weeks of initial posting, let alone still being waged 17 years later, with many of the same arguments, theories, blather, etc. (I’ve actually started and closed about 15 other blogs over that time period, but this one is the gift that just keeps on giving! ;))  A number of key people have passed away over that space of time (...and, a number of 'skeptics' have simply left the debate in disgust!)… but others enter the fray to fill their spaces.

I naively thought that when the Cornell/USFWS and Choctawhatchee searches ended over a dozen years ago that debate might be over… unless or until another Gene Sparling-like figure suddenly came forth with another report AND photograph. Instead, after a lull in the proceedings, a number of folks (too many to mention) kept plugging away in various ways and through various channels, creating a sort of IBWO bubble, keeping hope alive, and here we are today. Indeed, a lot of skeptics simply quit following the storyline and were caught off-guard when the more recent USFWS controversy ensued. I'm still not confident of what the short-term will bring though, and we can continue with this level of evidence, this level of debate, and never-ending assurances that ‘proof’ is right around the corner, for another 20 years. But nobody ought want that (least of all those of us who won't be around for another 20 years!). 

Meanwhile, a number of the IBWO postings on Facebook are going from the ridiculous to the sublime (or, is it the other way around?), as are the current comments being sent into USFWS, not giving me a whole lot of encouragement for the rest of this year (but, who knows). Reminder: you have about 3 weeks left to get your own "claims" into USFWS during this renewed comment period, and maybe, hopefully, improved comments will yet appear -- again, IF you are sending something in that requires extensive explanation of why it is "evidence" of the IBWO... OR, that requires them to simply believe what you are saying with no authentication, OR that is "evidence" that they are already well aware of -- then DON'T BOTHER sending it (it is NOT what they want). Oy.

Anyway, in celebration of the approaching blog anniversary I’ll throw out a couple of bits which were at least good for entertainment (if you haven't already seen these on the main IBWO Facebook page). First, one of the oddest/quirkiest minor stories I’ve ever seen in covering this saga since it began!... a brief story about PBS, of all entities, prankishly inserting IBWO sounds (double-knocks and kents) into a documentary on cicadas (having nothing to do with IBWOs) — I can’t imagine what they were thinking (I constantly expect pranks and hoaxes in the IBWO realm… but from PBS!?)

Here is the original posting mentioning the story:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/5544235825597802/

...and the referenced sounds start just before the 51-minute point in this video:

https://www.pbs.org/video/wfyi-local-productions-return-cicadas/?fbclid=IwAR1RhXzX58mkULB3oONCL3n8opE5UaMbuBz8GAvHoHH8CKWOtWTcQIrjvas

Second, is this wholly bizarre case of published avian species misidentification (NOT involving IBWO, but still...):

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/5546053918749326/

Hey, maybe the lesson in all of this is, to expect the unexpected!  ;)

Lastly, I'll close out with one of the more serious, and interesting, posts from Chris Gullickson at FB recounting how ultralights were used back during the Cornell/USFWS Big Woods search; a methodology that was mentioned, but not detailed at the time (you need to keep scrolling down and opening Gullickson's posts/description, which is interspersed with comments from others):

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/5549907825030602/

....enough for now

——————--------------————————

ADDENDUM  7/18:

While others are sending in pics of Pileated Woodpeckers to USFWS to argue that the IBWO still exist (...oy veyyyy), the "Center For Biological Diversity" has now weighed in, almost vehemently, to say it does NOT! Download and read their comment and followup here:

https://www.regulations.gov/comment/FWS-R4-ES-2020-0109-0182

While most of the stated criticisms are common and not new, I include this here so as to indicate the exasperation of the skeptical side (which I expect to only become more forceful by the end of the current comment period), and show what "believers" are up against in putting forth weak, ambiguous "evidence."

ADDENDUM  7/19:

...and now an addendum to the above Addendum!:

https://www.regulations.gov/comment/FWS-R4-ES-2020-0109-0185

an "anonymous" poster responds to the Center For Biological Diversity with the usual counterpoints (by inserting objections into their own article). Not sure how much of this sort of back-and-forth I'll keep linking to, should it continue, but these two reads somewhat give the overall flavor of the debate as it currently holds.

Be interesting to see how many more responses arrive in the 3 weeks remaining for comments.

ADDENDUM (again)  7/19:

Sheeesh, a 2nd addendum in one day, in what should be a quiet summer on this topic… the long-hyped, overly-anticipated Bobby Harrison video (from Oct. 2020) is now out. It can be seen starting around the 11-minute mark in this 54-min. piece from Matt Mendenhall of Birdwatching Magazine:

https://www.birdwatchingdaily.com/news/conservation/exclusive-video-evidence-ivory-billed-woodpecker/?fbclid=IwAR3lI_AWQvIhBxvKAUHPZ-ULnGpE4Ahv9jL0HEcXVWNW2r_38Sf7r9eDowE

Again, does nobody understand English anymore! What USFWS wants is visual evidence that requires no explanation — that, upon viewing, will be agreed by all to be an Ivory-billed Woodpecker (and shown forensically not to be faked); it doesn’t have to be pristine, just easily recognizable, like billions of other photographed birds. This isn’t it; this isn’t even close, nor even close to being close. The variables, problems, issues, questions, etc. are too many to even approach, but no doubt others will.

Again, chances are that NO video of this species in brief flight will ever be adequate to ‘prove’ its existence.  Repeating what I’ve said before: we need photos/video of this bird PERCHED on a trunk, on a limb, on a log, at a hole…. the way it spends the majority of its day, day after day after day after day.

But now this will be the debate du jour for this week until the next deep-analyzed video comes along... and then maybe the next... and the next... and the......

[BTW, I want to be clear that I'm not questioning whether or not Bobby has seen the IBWO, even multiple times, I'm simply acknowledging the huge gaping, exasperating difference between sighting the bird and offering conclusive evidence of having done so.]

added:  the USFWS has now posted Bobby's presentation to them (essentially identical to the Birdwatching Magazine version, just with an additional comment by Tim Gallagher at the end):

https://www.regulations.gov/document/FWS-R4-ES-2020-0109-0186

(I'm debating whether or not to even write about the issues I have with the video, most of which will probably be voiced by various skeptics as it is, and I don't really want to be feeding them any material!)

BTW, in some ways Harrison's clip is reminiscent of the brief film clip the Auburn team took at the Choctawhatchee back in the day (and released quite late, because they knew how unconvincing it was) -- not sure if it's even still available anywhere(?); Bobby's is better but in a few ways similar.

-- A Reprieve -- +Addenda

 ———————————————————

Not totally unexpectedly, the USFWS has announced a 6-month extension to its consideration of de-listing the Ivory-billed Woodpecker from endangered status. The IBWO was among 23 species scheduled for de-listing around September of this year, barring new evidence/information, and obviously there is enough controversy surrounding the Lord God bird to separate it out for special consideration (I assume the other 22 species will in fact still be de-listed before year’s end):

https://www.fws.gov/press-release/2022-07/service-announces-6-month-extension-final-decision-ivory-billed-woodpecker?fbclid=IwAR0d6PLugrDteydaJtYOsgR1V2YPlfeYSet3QMxUcNHNhw_NVKaDXm-Qdgo

In the announcement, USFWS further opens yet another new 30-day comment period, essentially starting now and running until midnight August 7, 2022. Part of the announcement reads as follows (I’ve bolded some bits):

“The Service is seeking new information during the 30-day reopening, including clear video or photographic evidence of the presence of the ivory-billed woodpecker that can be repeatedly interpreted the same way by independent observers, such as definitive photographic evidence collected by a field observer. Comments provided during the initial proposal and the previous reopening do not need to be resubmitted.”

also: “Information on how to submit comments is available at www.regulations.gov by searching under docket numberFWS‒R4‒ES‒2020‒0109”

Despite asking to avoid it, they will probably receive a number of repetitive, duplicative comments to what they have received already, so do keep in mind they are most interested in NEW and clearcut evidence (it's actually a pretty high bar, buuut, over the entire 6-month period it could happen).

...In other unrelated news, the proprietor of the main IBWO Rediscovered page on Facebook is contemplating taking the group “private” which has pluses and minuses… I s’pose he’ll make a decision soon.

So again, a lot going on, but not a lot of real news! and again, I'll be (pleasantly) surprised if there is much news before next winter. [Added: not clear to me why the agency is doing another 30-day comment period... perhaps just some sort of legal or procedural requirement? when evidence/documentation that arises in the next 4-5 months could clearly influence their final decision; i.e., a photo/video showing up in 35 days is not ignored because it failed to arrive within the 30 day period.]

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ADDENDUM  7/7:

There seems to almost be a pattern to the posts at the Facebook group that appear for awhile and then are later deleted…

(by the way, the group is now at 5900 members; not sure it will ever hit the 6400 figure I had predicted before it may go private (at least on a trial basis).

Matt Courtman will hold another Zoom meeting/chat this coming Monday night (8pm EDT) to update his ongoing search (currently in Tensas NWR, where he claims an encounter at end of June):

https://www.facebook.com/events/2364922253681976?ref=newsfeed

Meanwhile, I’m stiiiiiiiiiill looking for a “skeptic” to do a transcribed interview here at the blog. If interested, let me know (cyberthrush@gmail.com) and I can send along some questions for you to look over.

Ohhh, and hey, Boris Johnson will no longer be PM of Britain.

ADDENDUM2  7/8:

Jeeeeeez, the first 3 new comments are into the USFWS. NOT at all encouraging!

https://www.regulations.gov/document/FWS-R4-ES-2020-0109-0166/comment?sortBy=postedDate&sortDirection=desc

On a side-note, there now seem to be at least 4-5 Facebook groups (not all active, or public) for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker; will be interesting to see how these all shake out, especially in the event that the main one (with 5900 members currently) decides to go private.

ADDENDUM3  7/12:

There are now 14 comments in to the USFWS site, 13 of which are nothing but essentially useless, anecdotal verbal assertions or claims that will carry NO weight (and ought not to)! when the Agency has specifically asked for NEW, CLEAR, PHOTOGRAPHIC evidence... is it that hard to follow directions folks!? Frankly, this is embarrassing and part of why this debate is considered laughable by so many. The one somewhat substantive comment by a poster pertains to the Latta data/evidence which USFWS is no doubt already quite familiar with. Folks are only hurting the case for the IBWO with all these unsubstantiated claims and NON-new evidence. What USFWS wants and needs is something, if not indisputable, at least more clear than anything yet that has been made public. I'll just leave you with an old popular saying, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.” :(

Added...:  ;)

-- Just For Fun --

 ———————————————————

The last week has put me in a bad mood (well, a worser mood! ;)... so perhaps time for a little jest:

Occasionally I'm asked what it would take to convince me that Ivory-billed Woodpeckers are in fact extinct. I addressed this question once long ago with a ‘Top Ten’ list. So, maybe a good time to update that:

Top Ten things that might persuade me Ivory-billed Woodpeckers are extinct:

10. In a hastily-called press conference, Matt Courtman announces he has seen 3 Carolina Parakeets and 1 Dodo in the Tensas Wildlife Refuge, but thus far, not a single Ivory-billed Woodpecker.

9.  Donald Trump says he saw an Ivory-billed Woodpecker.

8. A dead Ivory-bill is discovered in the woods with a 45-caliber revolver next to it, and a note reading, "Good-bye cruel world, I have no friends, no future, and dangit no first-growth virgin, beetle-infested, bottomland forest remaining."

7. Cornell and Auburn make a surprise announcement at the next A.O.U. meeting that they have jointly documented a small population of Moas residing deep in the heart of Staten Island (...though the videotape is a tad fuzzy).

6. Little beknownst to northern Yankees, it turns out that constructing and flying paper-mache models of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers has been a long-standing pastime of Southern schoolchildren ever since 1953.

5. An unannounced raid of David Sibley's painting studio by Federal agents finds shelves and shelves and shelves of stuffed Ivory-billed carcasses with time, date, and place of collection meticulously recorded… BUT, none more recent than Sept., 1969.

4. A behavioral field ecologist from a major Ivy League university discovers unexpectedly that the favorite prank of Pileated Woodpeckers (after a few too many fermented berries), is to dress up like an Ivory-bill and go swooping through the woods, screaming "kent-kent-kent" instead of "kuk-kuk-kuk."

3. The FBI discovers that all the hoopla on the Web over the Ivory-bill is nothing more than a highly-organized, targeted Russian disinformation campaign intended to divide and conquer the American people (...AND, it seems to be working!)

2.  Algorithmic analysis proves that 94% of the posters at Facebook’s 'Ivory-bills Rediscovered' site are actually just sock puppets of Mark Zuckerberg.

1. A snowball makes its way through Hell unscathed.

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ADDENDUM 7/3:

[...And for those who don't already know, the word "gullibility" doesn't even exist in the dictionary.]

-- 5400+ Members, And Growing -- +ADDENDUM

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The Facebook Ivory-bill group is straining under the weight of its now 5400+ members, maybe 5500 by the time you finish reading this post 😃 (and plenty of others stop by the site who aren’t even members). Between the repetition and talking in circles, the pseudoscience, sock puppets, and trolling, the hype and lame speculation, the sarcasm, mockery, squabbling, and snark, the spam, biases, inconsistencies, wishful thinking, sundry mumbo-jumbo, naivete or non-credibility, cringy posts, and clumsy, hard-to-follow platform organization, it can be difficult to get through a day of perusing threads! (though there is occasional comic relief!); sometimes I even find comments or an entire thread from 2 or 3 days prior that I totally missed somehow -- and at the current rate of IBWO reports being written, shouldn't be too long before the states with IBWO reports will outnumber those without any (...okay, I kid... slightly; ohhh, and, glory be, even Carolina Parakeets have now been reported by a poster). 

With all that said though, every day somewhere I find at least one interesting comment or thought, even if buried amidst the avalanche of other verbiage (HERE'S another Chuck Hunter comment I enjoyed, if only because it paid tribute to Bill Pulliam (deceased), who's past efforts, and logic, on BirdForum.net and on his own blog in earlier days, have been missed by many of the more recent entrants to this debate. There are of course other interesting comments, pictures, data, links etc. from time to time, and only a small percentage of the 5400 members take a very active part. Understandably, a LOT of lurkers.

The lone Administrator of the site has taken some heat lately for not moderating the group more, but assuming he has a job and a life ;) moderating a large, active Facebook group in a consistent, fair way can be exceedingly difficult.  [Addendum: the lone moderater, Dwight Norris, has now, as of 6/28, put folks on notice that he DOES plan to be a little more 'hands-on' in moderating the group going forward, primarily asking for civility. I sympathize with him.]

And one ought also keep in mind that the whole FB platform was put together by Mr. Zuckerberg primarily for the purpose of capturing eyeballs, not to necessarily capture truth, facts, science, knowledge, reality, or anything else of the like which sometimes seem accidental byproducts. Fantasy, hope, and controversy seem better adapted at capturing eyeballs — with that said, if/when the IBWO is ever documented it will be, with all the false starts, one of the biggest science stories in zoological history… with a lot of explaining to do and a lot of egg-on-the-face to go around.

Anyway, FB is the main thing we have on the Web these days in the way of regular IBWO discussion; it’s just unfortunately sparse of biological or zoological scientists, as a percentage of total members. May not even matter since the two main sides of the debate are so polarized at this point that there is little room for deep “discussion” (indeed many “believers” on the site keep voicing the wish that deniers and skeptics not even take part, or be banned) -- interesting how the internet, which could be a fantastic tool for pulling people together, turns out instead to be perhaps the most powerful engine ever created for deeply polarizing people on virtually any unsettled topic. :((

I'll also reiterate (warn) what I've said for 6 months that we are reaching the point of being ripe or overdue for yet another hoax (forensically, they are usually easily uncovered, but still folks will try). The year is almost half over; will we really get through the rest of the year without one?

Lastly, a recent hot (disagreeable) topic over at FB has been equipment for getting a photo of an IBWO in a brief (flyby) encounter. Even with modern technology, the chance of getting such a photo that is definitive is likely slim and none; spend however much money you want, you are likely to get from useless, crappy, to suggestive but fuzzy and NONdefinitive photos/video of fleeing IBWOs ... SO I'll say for the umpteenth time, these birds must feed (forage) EVERY day, they must enter and leave roostholes EVERY day, and they will spend a significant chunk of a year at, around, or creating nestholes. We only need to identify such sites, then have them monitored closely by a human or an automatic, remote camera, to get the necessary photos (Matt Courtman, I think is stressing this approach in his search, but his is a small team)... such sites may be much higher in the canopies then we often look, but still ought be findable, especially in winter, IF the species exists (admittedly, this approach has repeatedly, and disappointingly, failed in the past, even with Cornell's larger-scale, transect-like search). In the current state of affairs, all the fleeting glances, brief encounters, auditory signs, fuzzy film, and data analysis will not make up for the failure to simply capture the living bird doing things it must do each and every day of each and every month throughout the year, including simply perching on a limb or trunk. 

Anyway, I say all this to impress upon people why skeptics are so entrenched and adamant in their stances -- from their perspective, the excuses, reasons, explanations of believers sound all-too-similar to those who would argue that the moon landings were fake or 9/11 was an 'inside' job -- such folks have counter-explanations (including 'scientific' ones) for almost every argument one can make to say the moon landings were real or Al Queda was fully responsible for 9/11 (...but hey, I don't wanna get into THAT discussion, and no, of course the analogy is not ideal). But one more analogy: when powerball lotteries run there is high anticipation but if there are no winners the $$$ prize simply continues to grow, often massively, with each new contest. So too, the longer this whole debate runs, with each passing year the greater will be the astonishment and scientific amazement (...and indeed 'prizes') if-ever/whenever the IBWO is conclusively confirmed. 

Something akin to “proof” of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (or as one FBer aptly called it, "Schrodinger's Woodpecker") will either appear in the next 20 years… or, NOT. Meanwhile, I suspect that as this year drags on without much solid IBWO news, the FB membership & chatter will at some point plateau (maybe ~6400 members) and then begin declining…. until, maybe, perhaps, just when you've begun to doze off, there is yet another surprise unforeseen announcement. ...always be prepared for a bit of a wild ride.

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ADDENDUM  6/24:

A very nice, new, longish post from Mark Michaels of Project Principalis detailing several of the old, ‘extra’ IBWO reports from areas beyond or tangential to the normally-given range for the species. This is, for obvious reasons, an important and under-emphasized topic, even if many of these reports cannot be verified or further studied:

https://projectprincipalis.com/2022/06/23/oklahoma-one-of-my-comments-on-the-delisting-and-an-additional-recent-report/?fbclid=IwAR0sq0yJQWlP9DkN0uPlSggYU7ZGoIrRuTpNIJoSnri0QninEs_HYJDrPHE

As Mark writes at one point after relating all these reports:

“This might only be of historical interest but for the fact that reports from these seemingly peripheral or 'out of range' locations have continued into the 21^st-century (USFWS 2010, Appendix E). When such claims are made by citizens they are routinely dismissed, if not mocked. There is no way to ascertain how many potentially credible reports from this region have been ignored over decades.”

Indeed, with so many of the 'traditional' haunts of the species having been somewhat scoured over decades (without much success), it is fair to wonder if such a strong-flying, and likely nomadic, species may have simply adapted to habitat (that has been less explored) elsewhere when necessary.

[p.s.... I add this as an Addendum here, in part because Mark linked to it from the Facebook group page.]

— Another Chuck Hunter Posting — +Addenda

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Well, gee, wasn’t planning to post again this soon, but Chuck Hunter now has another superb entry to the IBWO FB page that I'm compelled to pass along:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/posts/5414415795246473/?comment_id=5414482845239768&reply_comment_id=5414735891881130

I had just posted an Addendum to the prior post about Chuck, and then lo-and-behold he adds the above post which aligns virtually 100% with my own view… which is that the Cornell/USFWS work in the Big Woods was the last really good evidence for the IBWO.  The Auburn work and everything else since, while containing plenty of interesting, suggestive elements, also suffers from issues/problems that leave much of it as highly speculative. The notion that keeps getting loosely tossed around that there has been scientific “proof” of IBWOs since the Big Woods study is just patently false. Even members of the Cornell team I suspect would confess to the possibility that the IBWOs they encountered may in fact have been the last 1 or 2 on Earth! — not that that is a likely or probable scenario, but just that it remains a possibility which can’t simply be laid aside.

And I’ll reiterate what I’ve said multiple times before:

IF IBWOs exist in numbers sufficient for reproducing and persisting through these decades the question is not only why do repeated searches following up on credible sightings fail to produce definitive photographic evidence, but more importantly why have remote automatic cameras (that can have mechanical problems, but not the prevalent flaws of human observers) trained on suspected IBWO cavities and foraging sites or flyways (the Big Woods ACONE system) failed, despite millions of frames, to capture even one... single... indisputable photo (made public). The two main explanations are that the species is extinct, or we humans, despite 100s of man-hours of work and study remain ridiculously incompetent at correctly identifying IBWO cavities or foraging work… take your pick… neither a very fun choice (…yeah, a third possibility is that we keep finding such cavities and foraging sites AFTER they are no longer in use, but c’mon now! -- these birds have to forage and enter/leave cavities EVERY single day). Possibly, human activity around such sites, or even the mechanical presence of the cameras, simply scare the birds off, but again, the more time that passes, the more such explanations seem like tenuous pie-in-the-sky.

[With all that said, I continue to believe that IBWOs persist in 3 or more states... but, I fully understand the skepticism, derision, mockery, and sarcasm that gets hurled our way!]

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ADDENDUM  5/31:

small addendum, to say that if you're interested in the IBWO of course you must be interested in the Pileated Woodpecker as well, and I only recently discovered this Facebook group (it's been around for well over a decade) devoted to the PIWO. Some nice photos and videos... so as much as I hate promoting anything Facebookish or Zuckerbergian, here it be...:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/74736493236

ADDENDUM2  6/2:

Just since mentioning 11 days ago that the Facebook IBWO group had 3900 participants it has already grown to over 4700 and counting… on the one hand nice to see this continued, growing interest in the species, but on other hand the ‘discussions’ become increasingly repetitious, erratic, often-superficial, and difficult to follow. :(  ...not sure how much longer it can continue on this trajectory before becoming more problematic than time-worthy. Perhaps some form of greater moderation is needed?

Anyway, on a more fun note, this quite interesting video (of a juvie Pileated caught in a young woman’s hair) has been making the rounds, often in abbreviated form. Check out this 3+ minute version to get the fuller story. Almost evokes memories of “Sonny boy” and J.J. Kuhn, so just maybe THIS is how an IBWO will eventually be documented for good! (LOL).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbmHg6GG46E

ADDENDUM3  6/7:

If you missed it, last evening on Matt Courtman’s Monday night Zoom meeting, David Martin gave a very nice, cautious summation of basic/key information about the IBWO that newbies especially often ask about, consistently emphasizing that what we THINK we know is based on very limited sample size and study; i.e. how much of that 'knowledge' is applicable to IBWOs remaining today is difficult to feel certain about. BTW, Matt’s Zoom meetings for the immediate future will be limited to the first Monday of each month (not weekly as they have been). I presume at some point Martin's talk will be available on YouTube but no idea how soon… Matt’s, ummm, a bit behind at getting these posted.

Hype and speculation continues to swirl, on the Web and in my inbox, about searches or sightings of the species, but again I wouldn’t expect much solid news anytime soon. Perhaps in the fall USFWS will make a decision (or decide to postpone any decision) on de-listing the species.

ADDENDUM4  6/8:

==> INTERVIEW!:  First, I might like to interview a skeptic for a blog post; could be anyone from those who are convinced the species is extinct to a more agnostic sort who simply leans strongly that direction — but should be someone who has followed the whole IBWO debate fairly closely for a long time and is familiar with the arguments. In the distant past I did a number of transcribed “interviews” simply sending out a set of questions to which the respondent sends back their answers. Let me know if possibly interested! (cyberthrush@gmail.com)

Meanwhile, the IBWO Facebook group is now at over 5100 members; impressive to watch the rapid growth of participation over there (though with that said, only a limited percentage appear to be experienced ornithologists or birders).

And thanks to all who keep sending me tidbits via email, most of which I’m already aware of, though some of the background or backchannel stuff is helpful or new. If I don’t respond to something that you think calls for a response don’t hesitate to nudge me again. I’ll reiterate though that the vast majority (indeed, almost all) of pics/videos/audio sent my way are unlikely to get a positive response unless it is fairly clearcut, or I think is good enough to be of interest to skeptics.