-- Bookie --

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hmmm, my current odds (always subject to change), for the Daniel Rainsong story:

74% -- hoax by two or more people
19% -- hoax by one person, others unwittingly suckered in
6.3% -- sincere individual genuinely believing he saw/photo'd IBWOs, but mistaken
0.5% -- a 7th grader's prank
0.1% -- a snowball made its way through Hell
0.1% -- Ivory-bills definitively confirmed

May need some levity for the weekend, so replaying this past video from another dubiously-credible searcher ;-):


( http://tinyurl.com/y8p3vqj )

...Keep the emails coming, but don't know if I'll have much more to say before Monday... assuming the story even lasts that long (...am finding more strange interconnections as I research this thing, but not sure what will be worth reporting). [ NOTE: based on more I've uncovered, but not comfortable reporting, I'll raise the above likelihood of multiple-person hoax to 99.8% for now. ]
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-- More Dribs and Drabs --

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As far as I can tell the very earliest Rainsong began his search is Dec. 18 (or a day or two later); doesn't appear to have involved a great deal of advance planning, and not clear to me how he selected the specific area he would search. And then 11 days later he finds and photographs an Ivory-bill... hmmmm, nice piece of work!! The press release came out on Jan. 19, saying Rainsong searched for 30 days, implying the news release came immediately upon completion of said search (feasible). No details yet on exactly what Rainsong did between Dec. 29 and and Jan. 18 (continued searching same area, adjacent areas, tried to get video, contacted key people,etc.???) [NOTE: commenter below finds indication that expedition was originally only scheduled to go from Dec. 21 to Jan 3 ]
Last I heard, Jerry Jackson has not seen pics nor been in contact with Rainsong, though others on the press list have.
And I can only reiterate that nothing coming in to me thus far lends any confidence in these claims at all, while there is plenty to be leery of.
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-- Small Update --

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Not much new, just passing along (on a more positive note) the slim reference given to the Sabine River area in the 2007 "Draft Recovery Plan" for IBWO, where one relatively recent claim is briefly noted (although still 25 years ago):

"Apparently a family group (4-5 birds, including young) seen in 1985 along Toledo Bend Reservoir shoreline several miles north of Pendleton Bridge in compartment 101 of Sabine National Forest. Observer interviewed by Conner, extensive scaling evident in area, otherwise no independent confirmation."

My impression is that this would be well north of the current claim, but not sure about that.
As best I understand it, Rainsong will meet with certain principals at the end of this week to show his photos. If the photos are at all interesting, I imagine the numbers of those privy to them will expand and involve conference calling etc. and drag the process out considerably (more than my 1-2 wk. guesstimate). If they clearly show Pileated birds or obvious tampering than maybe we'll hear something sooner.

I probably won't be emailing Rainsong myself any time soon (my list of questions would be too long!), but if anyone else emails him or other principals and care to share any response they get let me know.

Otherwise, carry on.... (will likely be away from computer Thur. from ~7am to 3pm)
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-- "Reeks" --

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....That was the word used by Bill Pulliam in a comment below (prior post) to characterize the recent storyline being peddled, and... I concur. Don't really want to get into all the specific problems with the alleged report (although commenters have already pointed to a few), and it's even possible that future details could abate some of those problems, but for now haven't found ANYthing to lend favorable weight to the reported claims. I've been a tad restrained, simply because, as Bill himself acknowledges, it is always possible that someone very naive about the whole Ivory-bill situation and naive about scientific evidence and communication, could stumble upon the real goods, and then produce this sort of amateurish public output... just not very likely.
Like to believe it's a simple case of sincere mis-identification, but indications I gather thus far point toward outright fraud possibly with the hope of monetary reward (even though I believe all outstanding IBWO rewards are for leading investigators to a live bird, NOT just producing photographic evidence)... could be a hoax of multiple people, or a single individual suckering others in. Will be glad to change my tune as soon as someone produces substantial-enough details to clear doubts (...or, if Jerry Jackson sends me an email saying the pics are the real deal ;-).

As far as authenticating the purported photos, a source I trust but who prefers anonymity, writes as follows:

"....Fortunately, software exists that can be used to authenticate photos; several scientific journals actually employ the software to confirm whether results--such as photos of DNA or protein electrophoresis gels--have been enhanced or altered. The editors of the journal SCIENCE would probably be the best source to inquire of details, but NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC likely uses this software as well. If the images were created in RAW format, they might be valid without authentication; some wildlife photographers use this approach because magazines like NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC want clean, original material."

Of course this just means that alteration of photos may well be detectable by modern means; it does not rule out the possibility of a well-done model being posed in a setting to look very real in photo-capture.

Finally THIS rather odd, intriguing tidbit, that an emailer (thanks FW) calls to my attention: Daniel Rainsong hails from Iowa, attending Iowa State Univ. in the '80s. In 1979 (as reported in Jerry Jackson's book), a student stole a female Ivory-bill specimen from the University of Iowa and it was never recovered! (...is that Twilight Zone music I hear in the background?)

I suspect this story may have legs for a week or two, and then bye-bye... (well, at least another interesting study in human behavior).

(For those who think Bill, or I, sound too negative or in too much of a rush-to-judgment, it is simply because these sideshow episodes that go nowhere do so much damage to the thin thread of hope that still remains for this bird, especially among fence-post sitters who are running out of reasons not to side with the skeptics. Mis-identifications are bad enough, but at least understandable; hoaxes, should this turn out to be one, are beyond the pale.)
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-- NOT Holding My Breath... --

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Hesitate to even pass this along, but since someone surely will, don't feel much choice: Another claim being made for documentation of the IBWO, this time from the Sabine River Basin of Texas. For the moment I doubt the authenticity of the report, though it has some credible features, it also has several questionable elements (could be a total hoax or a genuinely well-intended, but mistaken individual... but I'm leaning toward hoax unfortunately). And even if the report itself is real, I'm doubtful any photos are truly definitive of IBWO in their identification. Of course would love to be proved wrong on this one, but for now I wouldn't get too excited, unless further details prove encouraging:

http://www.free-press-release.com/news-daniel-rainsong-finds-living-ivory-billed-woodpecker-1263914173.html

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-- Down To Two Options I Guess --

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Just some brief info on the current short-term Choctawhatchee search HERE.

My favorite quote from the piece (...gives me a chuckle, though I know what they meant):

"The Cincinnati Zoo is also sending participants, including a videographer, to record the expedition and hopefully, if seen, to get good enough video of the bird to prove its existence without having to collect the bird," LeFevre said.

....Ehhh, go ahead and collect it at this point; serves it right, for being so damn uncooperative!

ADDENDUM: Search has now been completed without success.
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-- Sibley etc. --

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If any Ivory-bills are flying about these days they must be freezing their tushes off in this unusually frigid winter for the Southeast! A January re-search of the Choctawhatchee (Fla.) is underway [ADDENDUM: search has now been completed without success], while independents continue in multiple other states (including Mike Collins further quest in the Pearl) --- with no help from 'powers-that-be' who have yet to release even a preliminary summary report that might aid independents --- perhaps the level of disagreements and wordspinning involved in such a report will delay it 'til the search season is completely over... (Personally, I'm not expecting much of note to arise from this search season of scaled-back efforts.)

Meanwhile, there seems to be a tad divergent range of opinions on David Sibley evidenced in the comments to the prior post. David is easily one of the keenest and most experienced observers of nature, and particularly birds, in America today (and I might add, one of the most highly/widely-respected). And while some of us may think him likely wrong in this particular matter, his views ought not be taken lightly. For any who have forgotten some of the background to the controversy, a couple of old articles briefly reviewing his experience here:

http://tinyurl.com/y9h7y9a

http://tinyurl.com/ybezrkr

and the original Sibley et.al. paper that instituted the controversy:

http://tinyurl.com/ybh2nyv

and Cornell's response at the time:

http://tinyurl.com/ydczg9h

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-- The Floor Is Open --

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From a recent online interview with David Sibley:

"Question: Speaking of which, a big controversy in the birding world was that reported sighting of the ivory-billed woodpecker, long thought extinct, in an Arkansas swamp. Does it really exist?

Answer: When it was first reported I went there immediately and spent 10 days. And the river was full of fishermen with binoculars. Everyone was keyed to spot it. It was not a wilderness. And I thought then, “If it’s here, someone will see it in the next four weeks.’’ That was five years ago. . . . I wrote a rebuttal for Science magazine."
.................................

... and not really a whole lot has changed since :-(

Don't know that I'll have much more to say prior to some summary reports being released (and even then may only end up repeating things I've written before), so for the sake of variety I'll again toss open the possibility of "guest posts" if anyone has some thoughtful commentary they care to pass along --- same basic guidelines as given in the original "contest" post, just no longer a contest (maybe folks were inhibited by the idea of competition???).
Send your thoughts/takes/analysis/conclusions (or Ivory-bill rock operas) along to me at: cyberthrush@gmail.com
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-- "Darkest Before Dawn" --

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Narrative from another one who was there:

http://birdman-darkestbeforedawn.blogspot.com/2010/01/some-current-notes-on-this-entry-i-was.html

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-- We Have A Winner --

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4 weeks ago I proposed a "contest" for someone to write their own blog post here; the deadline has passed, and lo-and-behold but one entry appeared (making selecting a winner easy!!). Below the thoughts and experiences of searcher Charles Williams from Baton Rouge, Louisiana (which I think reflect the notions of many of us):

........................................................................................
Ivory-bills: The Jury Is Still Out

Some people who know I have participated in several IB searches enjoy needling me about the minimal results of searches to date. Some of this is in jest and some is more aggressive, implying that there is something wrong, fiscally or morally, with the search effort. These jabs do not bother me. Based on the sightings’ reports that I’ve read and the experience level of the sources, I lean strongly toward the “believers” group but am not in the 100% sure category and won’t be until I see an IB or a clear photo thereof. More important, however, as a participant in several formal and informal searches, I have witnessed many shortcomings of the efforts, which strongly suggest that the search results are inconclusive. Simply put, the jury is still out. I begin by pointing out several fundamental weaknesses, from a thoroughness perspective, of the searches to date:

1. Over-attention to public lands versus private land. Public lands are legally accessible and hence have been the target of most searches. Private landowners are justifiably ambiguous in their attitudes toward an IB being found on their land and have not encouraged searches. Except in Arkansas, where most of the suitable habitat seems to be in public ownership, a large percentage of the potential IB habitat is in remote, lightly used private land that is often under lease to hunting clubs. Could these areas harbor IBs? Of course—and in fact they are more likely to do so than nearby or adjacent public lands due to the lower level of human activity (hunting, camping, fishing, etc.) that occurs on these lands.

2. Over-attention to areas that had the imprimatur of an institutionally reported and accepted sighting. The attention to SE Arkansas and the Choctawhatchee River in Florida was huge, based on the reputations of the sponsoring groups and their sightings, and this was later fueled by enthusiastic public and private funding. Like the recent housing bubble, these searches gained momentum well beyond when the shortage of actual, ongoing evidence raised questions about the extent of resources being devoted to these two areas.

3. Inherent weaknesses in the large, “institutionalized” search in Arkansas. I participated here for two weeks in February, 2007 and for one week in February, 2009. As an example of one weakness in the search methodology, I recall one of my days in the southern part of the White River NWR. Our search crew was staying at duck hunting lodge in St. Charles, Arkansas, an hour’s drive from the search area. We arrived in the search area around 7:30 or 8 a.m. and I was dropped off on a gravel road, with my target destination being Swan Lake, about a mile off the road to the south. After an hour of slow walking and wading, I came to Sixmile Bayou and experienced a somewhat hair-raising wade across this bayou with the water within inches of the top of my waders. Finally around 10 a.m. I arrived in the target area, which was indeed outstanding habitat with very large hardwoods of a variety of types and a good bit of woodpecker activity. I stayed in the area for around 5 hours, criss-crossing the area, and then started out by a different and longer path, getting back to the road after dark. This was a reasonably typical day in that my hours in the prime habitat were mid-morning to mid/late afternoon. These are the hours, per Tanner, in which IBs become rather inactive. How much credibililty was given by Cornell to my search effort that day? I don’t know, but I do know that my GPS track was entered into their data base and contributed, in some way, to their future decisions regarding deployment of searchers. In brief, the total time I devoted and the distance I covered that day did not necessarily mean the area had been thoroughly, or even moderately well searched. But since Cornell was working each day with, typically, 10 volunteers and half a dozen full-time staff, the practical aspects of lodging, feeding, transporting, and managing personnel produced limitations that affected search effectiveness.

4. Under-attention to Louisiana and Mississippi. These two states both have some excellent areas of potential IB presence--Louisiana in particular in the vast Atchafalaya basin where sightings have been periodically reported over the decades since the 1940s. Yet due to lack of recent sightings, remoteness and poor accessibility of the areas, lack of funding, and lack of a strong institutional backer, search efforts have been minimal and “broadbrush” compared to Arkansas and the Choctawhatchee. This same conclusion also applies to most of the river systems of the Florida panhandle. (Note: I exempt from this comment the lower Pearl River basin which has received a heroic, thorough, and ongoing effort by Mike Collins to find the birds (or their descendents) that Kullivan saw in 1999.). As for Mississippi, there are large areas of good habitat along the Mississippi River between Natchez and Angola, Louisiana, where hardwood-dominated “loess topography” could have become a refuge for IBs fleeing the clear-cutting of adjacent bottomland areas. Searching here has been minimal. It would be simply wrong at this point to say that the search results mean that IBs are extinct. The small number of good quality sightings alone should rule out this conclusion. So what do I believe can be concluded at this point in time?

1. Despite its weaknesses, the well-funded and well-manned search in Arkansas has established that the White River NWR is not some kind of “motherlode” of IBs, and the population of 20+/- birds that I heard some Cornell people speculate about is probably not present. Instead, there are a handful of widely dispersed birds whose location and means/ability to reproduce are a mystery. This merits some further searching of a highly targeted nature.

2. The extremely meticulous search in Congaree NP, S. Carolina, has come as close as possible to establishing that IBs are not there. The Congaree search, which I participated in, was very thorough and avoided many of the glitches of the Arkansas methodology, and was conducted in a much smaller area, with searches starting from tent camps at daybreak. This is not, however, to say that minimally searched private lands closer to the S. Carolina coast should also be ruled out.

3. Based on sightings by at least four different individuals, there are almost certainly a few birds in the Choctawhatchee River bottoms in Florida, and this area probably has the best potential for yielding additional sightings and a photograph. Other river bottoms in the Panhandle also merit attention.

4. Since official searches will probably end due to lack of results, finding the IB may well depend on a chance encounter (e.g., Kullivan) in which some alert outdoorsman has a camera handy. Another possibility is that the efforts of a dedicated individual, creative and persevering in approach, and focusing on the best habitat in remote locations, will turn up a documentable IB. This could happen on private land, and I envision the possibility that a bird or birds could be photographed and their location kept secret by advance agreement with the landowner.


Comments or questions may be sent to chazbizz@cox.net. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanks for the input Charles!

-- Happy New... Search Season --

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May it be a fruitful one....



"BE" (Neil Diamond -- "Jonathan Livingston Seagull")


Lost
On a painted sky
Where the clouds are hung
For the poet's eye
You may find him
If you may find him

There
On a distant shore
By the wings of dreams
Through an open door
You may know him
If you may

Be
As a page that aches for a word
Which speaks on a theme that is timeless
While the Sun God will make for your day
Sing
As a song in search of a voice that is silent
And the one God will make for your way

And we dance
To a whispered voice
Overheard by the soul
Undertook by the heart
And you may know it
If you may know it

While the sand
Would become the stone
Which begat the spark
Turned to living bone
Holy, holy
Sanctus, sanctus

Be
As a page that aches for a word
Which speaks on a theme that is timeless
While the Sun God will make for your day
Sing
As a song in search of a voice that is silent
And the one God will make for your way




( http://tinyurl.com/y8uuen7 )

...."Contest" winning entry coming up Mon. or Tues.
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-- Archival Pics --

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A poster on IBWO Researchers Forum provides below link to images (some colorized) from the Cornell archives of Ivory-bills, and other material from the Singer Tract expedition:

http://tinyurl.com/yaln6dw

Elsewhere on Web it's reported that Jerry Jackson is scheduled to give a talk in March in Florida entitled "History, Hoopla, and Hope: Lessons of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker and its Emergence as an Icon for Conservation" (I suspect the emphasis will be on 'history' and 'hoopla,' although Jerry always hedges his bets just enough to keep 'hope' from expiring entirely).

January essentially marks the beginning of a new winter search season (to ~April/May), though difficult to imagine much news emerging out of this year's heavily scaled-back efforts. Meanwhile, we await a final summary from official sources that might give some direction (...or, not) --- just wonder if that eventual report will be presented with any degree of enthusiasm, or just stammering and red faces?
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-- Top 10 Posts... NOT! --

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Didn't fully realize just what a disappointing year this has been until I went back, as a year-end review, to pick out 10 favorite posts from the last 12 months... and couldn't compile such!

Instead I'll just cite 2 light-hearted posts:

"Get A Photo, Sherlock"
"Name Change?"

...a mere 2 posts of a serious (and similar) nature:

"Ivory-bill Politics"
"Of Bubbles"

...and lastly, 3 totally OFF-TOPIC video posts that remain among my favorite to view:

"Wingsuit Flying"
"Intermission"
"Another Very Endangered Bird"

So much for 2009 :-(

....A little music as the year nears an end... because some of us still believe in things we have not seen ;-) :


( http://tinyurl.com/yfr7wyu )
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-- Pics (OT) --

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I assume this is for real, though seems improbable(?) :

http://tinyurl.com/yktogwg

(check out the rest of the pics at this site as well, by clicking directly on each pic to bring up the next one! --- but not while you're about to sit down for a Holiday meal!!)

....and a Happy (belated) Festivus to everyone!
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-- Need a Calendar? --

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For all you last-minute Xmas shoppers (...okay, it's probably too late to order for Christmas), your 2010 Hooters Calender is available here (...gotta LUV the cover!):

http://www.zazzle.com/hooters_2010_calendar-158194560331473194

....or view a sample here from 2009:

http://joe-ks.com/HootersCalendar2009.pdf
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-- Rohrbaugh On the 'Romeo Error' --

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Cornell's Ron Rohrbaugh speaks with the Cornell Chronicle here:

http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/Dec09/DefineExtinctions.html

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-- Largest Search Ever Coming this Winter --

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....but NOT for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. Worldwide search for the Slender-billed Curlew, "Europe's most enigmatic bird," will commence this winter:

http://www.surfbirds.com/sbirdsnews/archives/2009/12/wise_men_search.html

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-- The Ivory-billed Woodpecker... and Physics --

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Just a quite old post from another blog, but I've got to love it when the Ivory-billed Woodpecker and physics are discussed in the same breath:

http://tinyurl.com/yle6rhs

(maybe 2010 will be the year to confirm both the Higgs boson and the IBWO... or, maybe not)

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