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This week Bill Pulliam starts us off, not with a Tennessee ground search narrative, but with a bit of a rant about a rush to judgment, with statistics to boot! I don 't completely agree with all his points (and those who see the debate as boiling down to a matter of fiscal priorities certainly won't), but one point I especially concur with runs as follows:
"Most birders, even experts who should know better, vastly overestimate the efficiency of the transcontinental birding community as a bird-finding machine. The vast majority of individual North American birds live out their entire lives without ever being seen, identified, twitched, or reported by any birder. For dozens of individuals of a woodland species to go undetected decade after decade even in the eastern U.S. is in fact exceedingly easy, not virtually impossible."
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Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Sunday, September 13, 2009
-- Credibility --
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In the Ivory-bill realm a lot of "credibility" perhaps lies in shreds at this point... Much of the IBWO debate always hinged on credibility: either you believe some of those making Ivory-bill claims (trusting their expertise, judgment, honesty), or you don't believe any of them (you distrust their expertise, judgment, or honesty... at least in this instance) --- "credibility" of individuals has a few objective parameters, but remains largely in the eye of the beholder.
And even though some Ivory-bill claimants have enough experience, knowledge, credentials, to be deemed 'credible,' skeptics would further quickly point out that even credible people make mistakes on occasion. But mistaking one gull for another, or one sparrow or fall warbler or hummingbird for another, as would be typical, is one thing; claiming with assurance that you've seen an Ivory-billed Woodpecker, and being mistaken, is quite a whopper; in a league of its own compared to the 'mistakes' that we can all agree birders do make.
It is unfortunate (and some would say telling) that none of the recent IBWO claims come from any of the most hands-down, household names (of unquestioned credibility) in American birding or ornithology; of course many of these folks haven't even spent significant time looking for the IBWO. There is even a second tier of birders in the country, who while not household names, are well enough regarded within the professional community, that their word would be widely accepted --- no claimants from that level either. Instead, most Ivory-bill sighters come from ranks where there is more wiggle room to cast doubts on credibility (of course these are the same sort of folks who turn in the bulk of 1000's of routinely-accepted yearly bird counts and stats... interesting how they are presumed right 99% of the time, and assumed wrong 100% of the time when their report is of an Ivory-bill).
Skeptics would additionally argue that even highly credible sightings may become UNcredible if followup investigations by competent, skilled individuals fail to confirm the original reports (replication is an essential element in science) --- this too though is mired in fuzziness in the IBWO arena, where additional sighting claims are no longer considered confirmatory, but only photographic or physical evidence is... indeed the more sightings that come forth devoid of photographic evidence, the more potent demonstration it is, according to some minds, of widespread delusion.
Emailers on occasion ask me which claims I personally give greatest credence too --- a question I never answer because the number is embarrassingly small, and readers would assume that names I leave off the list are ones I don't find credible... which is not accurate. There are a large body of claims I simply view in limbo as neither clearly credible, nor non-credible, but too sketchy to cast judgment on. If just 10% of those claims turned out to be credible it probably doubles the list of sightings I'd find believable (not that the number even matters, since finding a single lone sighting highly credible, is enough for me to lean toward the Ivory-bill's probable persistence).
And finally again, given the potential rarity of the species and expanse of habitat to be covered, the question lingers how 'credible' really were the search strategies, methods, and skills employed that have come up largely empty-handed? Like the credibility of so many of the sighters themselves, I'm just not sure what the answer to that is yet.
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In the Ivory-bill realm a lot of "credibility" perhaps lies in shreds at this point... Much of the IBWO debate always hinged on credibility: either you believe some of those making Ivory-bill claims (trusting their expertise, judgment, honesty), or you don't believe any of them (you distrust their expertise, judgment, or honesty... at least in this instance) --- "credibility" of individuals has a few objective parameters, but remains largely in the eye of the beholder.
And even though some Ivory-bill claimants have enough experience, knowledge, credentials, to be deemed 'credible,' skeptics would further quickly point out that even credible people make mistakes on occasion. But mistaking one gull for another, or one sparrow or fall warbler or hummingbird for another, as would be typical, is one thing; claiming with assurance that you've seen an Ivory-billed Woodpecker, and being mistaken, is quite a whopper; in a league of its own compared to the 'mistakes' that we can all agree birders do make.
It is unfortunate (and some would say telling) that none of the recent IBWO claims come from any of the most hands-down, household names (of unquestioned credibility) in American birding or ornithology; of course many of these folks haven't even spent significant time looking for the IBWO. There is even a second tier of birders in the country, who while not household names, are well enough regarded within the professional community, that their word would be widely accepted --- no claimants from that level either. Instead, most Ivory-bill sighters come from ranks where there is more wiggle room to cast doubts on credibility (of course these are the same sort of folks who turn in the bulk of 1000's of routinely-accepted yearly bird counts and stats... interesting how they are presumed right 99% of the time, and assumed wrong 100% of the time when their report is of an Ivory-bill).
Skeptics would additionally argue that even highly credible sightings may become UNcredible if followup investigations by competent, skilled individuals fail to confirm the original reports (replication is an essential element in science) --- this too though is mired in fuzziness in the IBWO arena, where additional sighting claims are no longer considered confirmatory, but only photographic or physical evidence is... indeed the more sightings that come forth devoid of photographic evidence, the more potent demonstration it is, according to some minds, of widespread delusion.
Emailers on occasion ask me which claims I personally give greatest credence too --- a question I never answer because the number is embarrassingly small, and readers would assume that names I leave off the list are ones I don't find credible... which is not accurate. There are a large body of claims I simply view in limbo as neither clearly credible, nor non-credible, but too sketchy to cast judgment on. If just 10% of those claims turned out to be credible it probably doubles the list of sightings I'd find believable (not that the number even matters, since finding a single lone sighting highly credible, is enough for me to lean toward the Ivory-bill's probable persistence).
And finally again, given the potential rarity of the species and expanse of habitat to be covered, the question lingers how 'credible' really were the search strategies, methods, and skills employed that have come up largely empty-handed? Like the credibility of so many of the sighters themselves, I'm just not sure what the answer to that is yet.
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Friday, September 11, 2009
-- Moss Island Moments --
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More Tennessee moments from Bill P. up at his blog now. Nothing much new except some video of the area, as he ends his 2008 search season (ensuing posts I assume will deal with 2009).
...And let's see, summer officially ends in less than 2 weeks... anyone wanna bet if Cornell "a-summary-will-be-posted-over-the-summer" Laboratory of Ornithology will have anything to report on the IBWO search in that amount of time (...not me, maybe November).
I'm personally more interested in hearing what Jerry Jackson's take on things is at this point (highly pessimistic, no doubt), but don't know if we'll get a separate perspective from him or not.
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More Tennessee moments from Bill P. up at his blog now. Nothing much new except some video of the area, as he ends his 2008 search season (ensuing posts I assume will deal with 2009).
...And let's see, summer officially ends in less than 2 weeks... anyone wanna bet if Cornell "a-summary-will-be-posted-over-the-summer" Laboratory of Ornithology will have anything to report on the IBWO search in that amount of time (...not me, maybe November).
I'm personally more interested in hearing what Jerry Jackson's take on things is at this point (highly pessimistic, no doubt), but don't know if we'll get a separate perspective from him or not.
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Tuesday, September 08, 2009
-- Going Forward, Looking Backward --
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Quite awhile back I told someone, only half in jest, that I had deliberately tried, at one point or another, to offend everyone in the Ivory-bill debate --- ascribing that as the best way to maintain my own independence and non-favoritism.
Looking back with 4+ years hindsight, it's now even easier, if one so chose, to take to task various organizations, people, methods that have been part of this story. And before it's over there may be some semi-bloodletting amongst various participants themselves over the non-stellar results of the last 4 years... there is blame to go around in what has been a complicated and controversial process.
It remains difficult to believe that the Ivory-bill still persists and simultaneously believe that the official search process was well and methodically executed. And I'm not even someone who requires a drop-dead indisputable photo of the bird to be persuaded; I just need to see that over time an increased number of credible sightings are coming forth (an increased number of putative sounds, foraging sign, and cavities would be nice to go along, as well) --- that doesn't seem like too much to ask for; indeed it seems pretty minimum for a 4-year effort.
If the Ivory-bill is yet documented I'm not sure there can be much success going forward with its conservation (it's simply, regrettably too late, and I doubt the will exists for the sort of large-scale land preservation/management needed), but maybe we can learn something looking backward (which will assist future cases) to understand how such a lengthy massive failure could have occurred in the first place (if that is indeed what has transpired).
....and Bill P.'s latest blog entry, of Tennessee and djembes, here:
http://bbill.blogspot.com/2009/09/firebirds.html
Quite awhile back I told someone, only half in jest, that I had deliberately tried, at one point or another, to offend everyone in the Ivory-bill debate --- ascribing that as the best way to maintain my own independence and non-favoritism.
Looking back with 4+ years hindsight, it's now even easier, if one so chose, to take to task various organizations, people, methods that have been part of this story. And before it's over there may be some semi-bloodletting amongst various participants themselves over the non-stellar results of the last 4 years... there is blame to go around in what has been a complicated and controversial process.
It remains difficult to believe that the Ivory-bill still persists and simultaneously believe that the official search process was well and methodically executed. And I'm not even someone who requires a drop-dead indisputable photo of the bird to be persuaded; I just need to see that over time an increased number of credible sightings are coming forth (an increased number of putative sounds, foraging sign, and cavities would be nice to go along, as well) --- that doesn't seem like too much to ask for; indeed it seems pretty minimum for a 4-year effort.
If the Ivory-bill is yet documented I'm not sure there can be much success going forward with its conservation (it's simply, regrettably too late, and I doubt the will exists for the sort of large-scale land preservation/management needed), but maybe we can learn something looking backward (which will assist future cases) to understand how such a lengthy massive failure could have occurred in the first place (if that is indeed what has transpired).
....and Bill P.'s latest blog entry, of Tennessee and djembes, here:
http://bbill.blogspot.com/2009/09/firebirds.html
Friday, September 04, 2009
-- Of Zebras and Double-Knocks --
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It's Friday, so that means Bill Pulliam is continuing his narrative of Ivory-bill glimmers in western Tennessee HERE, this time with an allusion to the old bromide that when you hear hooves clomping don't think "zebras." But when someone intriguingly describes something in black-and-white, and you repeatedly hear certain sounds, and the swamp abounds with woodpeckers, well, what to think, what to think?....
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It's Friday, so that means Bill Pulliam is continuing his narrative of Ivory-bill glimmers in western Tennessee HERE, this time with an allusion to the old bromide that when you hear hooves clomping don't think "zebras." But when someone intriguingly describes something in black-and-white, and you repeatedly hear certain sounds, and the swamp abounds with woodpeckers, well, what to think, what to think?....
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Thursday, September 03, 2009
-- Readings (OT) --
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Sorry, again off-topic today... but have to recommend a couple of volumes:
Someone recently sent me the NY Times bestseller from last year "Wesley the Owl," the 19-year story of an injured Barn Owl raised by a Cal Tech rehabber of sorts; must reading for every bird-lover out there... and many many others as well!
By happenstance, I'm simultaneously reading "Alex and Me," Irene Pepperberg's account of her life with Alex the world-famous African Grey Parrot, newly out in paperback.
These sorts of volumes I think tell us more in-depth about birds (their true nature, their behavior, their cognition) than most $75 ornithology textbooks.
I know I'm late to the table in recommending these books, as many of you will have already read one or both of them. But if you haven't you may want to get a hold of them (...just be sure to buy a box of kleenex at the same time!)
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Sorry, again off-topic today... but have to recommend a couple of volumes:
Someone recently sent me the NY Times bestseller from last year "Wesley the Owl," the 19-year story of an injured Barn Owl raised by a Cal Tech rehabber of sorts; must reading for every bird-lover out there... and many many others as well!
By happenstance, I'm simultaneously reading "Alex and Me," Irene Pepperberg's account of her life with Alex the world-famous African Grey Parrot, newly out in paperback.
These sorts of volumes I think tell us more in-depth about birds (their true nature, their behavior, their cognition) than most $75 ornithology textbooks.
I know I'm late to the table in recommending these books, as many of you will have already read one or both of them. But if you haven't you may want to get a hold of them (...just be sure to buy a box of kleenex at the same time!)
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Tuesday, September 01, 2009
-- Biding Time --
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Some more sheer bird entertainment here (woodpecker/hummingbird face-off):
http://tinyurl.com/n2s3fk
...and Bill Pulliam's latest Tennessee entry HERE... in which he performs his best Charles Manson impression.
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Some more sheer bird entertainment here (woodpecker/hummingbird face-off):
http://tinyurl.com/n2s3fk
...and Bill Pulliam's latest Tennessee entry HERE... in which he performs his best Charles Manson impression.
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Monday, August 31, 2009
-- Too Good Not To Pass Along (OT) --
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Michael Jordan, eat your heart out....
... Now if only they could dribble!
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Michael Jordan, eat your heart out....
... Now if only they could dribble!
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Sunday, August 30, 2009
-- Hmmmm.... --
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Curiouser and curioser?...
Just noticed that David Luneau's controversial video, which instigated much of the Ivory-bill debate we are now embroiled in, seems to have been taken down from YouTube, at least as a stand-alone video clip. Nor could I find it on David Luneau's own website (at one time I think he owned the copyright to it --- but not sure if that's still the case or if Cornell controls it at this point???). In a cursory search I couldn't find the video available anywhere by itself, except as linked to from the original Science Magazine article link below (I assume it is still embedded in many longer presentations of the Ivory-bill saga):
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/vol0/issue2005/images/data/1114103/DC1/1114103S1.mov
Possibly someone is simply exercising their intellectual property rights and having the clip removed from places where it was never given authorization for use, although one wonders why they waited this long to do so...?
The problem is, it feeds the sort of fears Louis Bevier had expressed well back, when Mary Scott suddenly took down much of her long-standing Ivory-bill material from the Web, and he wondered aloud if in the future, IBWO claims, evidence, arguments made and never confirmed, would simply disappear into cyber-thin-air as if they never existed, like so many evanescent 1's and 0's trailing off into shadowland.
"P. Coin" has also pondered elsewhere whether we would see, over ensuing time, the gradual disappearance of many of the Web-based presentations promoting the last 4 years of the Ivory-bill enterprise. (There is always the Web's archival "Wayback Machine," but it has limitations.)
For obvious reasons, both historical and scientific, much of this material needs to remain intact and accessible, but time will tell... in many ways, the Internet remains a whole new ballgame.
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Curiouser and curioser?...
Just noticed that David Luneau's controversial video, which instigated much of the Ivory-bill debate we are now embroiled in, seems to have been taken down from YouTube, at least as a stand-alone video clip. Nor could I find it on David Luneau's own website (at one time I think he owned the copyright to it --- but not sure if that's still the case or if Cornell controls it at this point???). In a cursory search I couldn't find the video available anywhere by itself, except as linked to from the original Science Magazine article link below (I assume it is still embedded in many longer presentations of the Ivory-bill saga):
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/vol0/issue2005/images/data/1114103/DC1/1114103S1.mov
Possibly someone is simply exercising their intellectual property rights and having the clip removed from places where it was never given authorization for use, although one wonders why they waited this long to do so...?
The problem is, it feeds the sort of fears Louis Bevier had expressed well back, when Mary Scott suddenly took down much of her long-standing Ivory-bill material from the Web, and he wondered aloud if in the future, IBWO claims, evidence, arguments made and never confirmed, would simply disappear into cyber-thin-air as if they never existed, like so many evanescent 1's and 0's trailing off into shadowland.
"P. Coin" has also pondered elsewhere whether we would see, over ensuing time, the gradual disappearance of many of the Web-based presentations promoting the last 4 years of the Ivory-bill enterprise. (There is always the Web's archival "Wayback Machine," but it has limitations.)
For obvious reasons, both historical and scientific, much of this material needs to remain intact and accessible, but time will tell... in many ways, the Internet remains a whole new ballgame.
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Friday, August 28, 2009
-- Tennessee Tensions --
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In a story not dissimilar to some others I've heard the last couple years, Bill Pulliam recounts (in an unvarnished manner and lengthy post) some of the friction between Cornell-ites and others in the quest for the Ghost Bird, and also elaborates on some of the Tennessee sounds of interest: HERE
(...I'm reminded a tad here of an old George Carlin routine regarding my stuff versus your stuff... but, I won't go there. ;-)
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In a story not dissimilar to some others I've heard the last couple years, Bill Pulliam recounts (in an unvarnished manner and lengthy post) some of the friction between Cornell-ites and others in the quest for the Ghost Bird, and also elaborates on some of the Tennessee sounds of interest: HERE
(...I'm reminded a tad here of an old George Carlin routine regarding my stuff versus your stuff... but, I won't go there. ;-)
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Wednesday, August 26, 2009
-- ...Digression --
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From Ted Kennedy's eulogy to brother Bobby 40+ years ago....
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From Ted Kennedy's eulogy to brother Bobby 40+ years ago....
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Tuesday, August 25, 2009
-- Another Pic For Folks To Be Concerned Over ;-) --
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Here...: http://tinyurl.com/lczgzm [addendum: the felonious photo has now been replaced]
And another installment of Bill P.'s tenuously tantalizing Tennessee tracking tale HERE.
...Seriously, I want to again thank Bill for offering his readers more of the flavor of the official search process than other participants have been willing or free to do (maybe they are all saving up their material for future books).
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Here...: http://tinyurl.com/lczgzm [addendum: the felonious photo has now been replaced]
And another installment of Bill P.'s tenuously tantalizing Tennessee tracking tale HERE.
...Seriously, I want to again thank Bill for offering his readers more of the flavor of the official search process than other participants have been willing or free to do (maybe they are all saving up their material for future books).
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Monday, August 24, 2009
-- Just to Clarify --
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Thanks to Mike B., Pat C., and Julie Z. for all forwarding along the (virtually identical) responses they got from BirdLife on the controversial IBWO image commented upon in the prior post. I assume it will be ok to quote a bit of the response (from BirdLife) for clarity to everyone:
"...this is a painting, done in photoshop... it’s certainly not our intention to mislead people with this illustration. When printed or at a reasonable size this is obviously a painting. Perhaps the small size on the web site is less clear!"
I hope this satisfies everyone that there was no ill or surreptitious intent on the part of BirdLife in using the image to accompany their news release; at worst, just an unintentional lapse in judgment (and I'm not sure it was even that). I'm bettin' the BirdLife editor was a bit surprised by the mini-flurry of inquiries. Methinkest we're all a bit hyper (in different ways and directions) on the subject of the Ivory-bill ;-)
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Thanks to Mike B., Pat C., and Julie Z. for all forwarding along the (virtually identical) responses they got from BirdLife on the controversial IBWO image commented upon in the prior post. I assume it will be ok to quote a bit of the response (from BirdLife) for clarity to everyone:
"...this is a painting, done in photoshop... it’s certainly not our intention to mislead people with this illustration. When printed or at a reasonable size this is obviously a painting. Perhaps the small size on the web site is less clear!"
I hope this satisfies everyone that there was no ill or surreptitious intent on the part of BirdLife in using the image to accompany their news release; at worst, just an unintentional lapse in judgment (and I'm not sure it was even that). I'm bettin' the BirdLife editor was a bit surprised by the mini-flurry of inquiries. Methinkest we're all a bit hyper (in different ways and directions) on the subject of the Ivory-bill ;-)
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Friday, August 21, 2009
-- BirdLife International --
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With the Cebu Flowerpecker (here and here) as a motivator, sounds like prestigious BirdLife International may take a more active role in the search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (as well as other "lost" species). If any reader knows greater details of this endeavor love to hear of it (email or comment section)....
Bill Pulliam's experience continues here.
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With the Cebu Flowerpecker (here and here) as a motivator, sounds like prestigious BirdLife International may take a more active role in the search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (as well as other "lost" species). If any reader knows greater details of this endeavor love to hear of it (email or comment section)....
Bill Pulliam's experience continues here.
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Tuesday, August 18, 2009
-- Pics and Sound --
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"Fangsheath" over at IBWO Researchers Forum has located on the Web HERE over 100 photos from Tanner's original Singer Tract study as archived at the Louisiana Digital Library (a lot more photos than commonly found in most IBWO books or websites). While they don't add a great deal to our knowledge of Ivorybills or to the modern-day story, still another treasure-trove to hark one back to another time and place. Thanks for all your good work/research Fang!
And Bill Pulliam continues his chronicle of the search for the 'ghost bird' in Tennessee at his blog.
(I won't necessarily cite every posting Bill puts up, but his basic plan seems to be to post each Tue. and Fri., or thereabouts, at least through the end of this month, so be sure to follow along, with or without a link from here.)
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"Fangsheath" over at IBWO Researchers Forum has located on the Web HERE over 100 photos from Tanner's original Singer Tract study as archived at the Louisiana Digital Library (a lot more photos than commonly found in most IBWO books or websites). While they don't add a great deal to our knowledge of Ivorybills or to the modern-day story, still another treasure-trove to hark one back to another time and place. Thanks for all your good work/research Fang!
And Bill Pulliam continues his chronicle of the search for the 'ghost bird' in Tennessee at his blog.
(I won't necessarily cite every posting Bill puts up, but his basic plan seems to be to post each Tue. and Fri., or thereabouts, at least through the end of this month, so be sure to follow along, with or without a link from here.)
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Friday, August 14, 2009
-- "Too Much White..." --
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Bill P. takes us into the weekend once again with his 2 most recent IBWO posts (yesterday and today) up at his blog:
http://bbill.blogspot.com
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Bill P. takes us into the weekend once again with his 2 most recent IBWO posts (yesterday and today) up at his blog:
http://bbill.blogspot.com
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Tuesday, August 11, 2009
-- Scramblin' Bill --
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Bill Pulliam's latest entry HERE recounting the pursuit of double-knocks in Tennessee.
I commend Bill for fleshing out in greater detail than others have done a bit of the ground search as it proceeded in his home state. Hmmm... anyone with the South Carolina team care to do the same??? ;-)
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Bill Pulliam's latest entry HERE recounting the pursuit of double-knocks in Tennessee.
I commend Bill for fleshing out in greater detail than others have done a bit of the ground search as it proceeded in his home state. Hmmm... anyone with the South Carolina team care to do the same??? ;-)
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-- Just For Fun and Diversion (OT) --
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.... a couple of things worth trying before summer is over:
... and, speaking of bubbles ;-)
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.... a couple of things worth trying before summer is over:
... and, speaking of bubbles ;-)
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