IVORY-BILLS LiVE???!...

Tuesday, January 06, 2009

-- Picture This --

Sunday, January 04, 2009

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The previous referenced paper concerns itself primarily with the question of with what probability should IBWOs have been detected by now (given the effort put forth) if they persisted in the White River or Bayou De View regions of Arkansas. And skeptics will actually find much to latch onto in the analysis done, as the authors acknowledge at one point: "...given this search effort, if more than a very few Ivory-billed Woodpeckers were present in the search area during the surveys, their presence should have been detected."

There does however remain the significant possibility of just 1-2 IBWOs inhabiting the areas surveyed and going undetected (and of course Cornell's initial claims for the Big Woods were simply for the presence of at least a single bird).

The authors note that for the searches to be even "moderately effective" the Ivory-bill would need to have a "large" home range (exceeding 5000 hectares -- to increase the chance of encounter with an observer), and then go on to say the following :

"Home-range size is unknown for Ivory-billed Woodpeckers. During his studies, Tanner (1942) followed birds and found that, during the nesting season, individuals often traveled >2.0 km from the nest, with one record of a bird traveling 4.0 km from its nest in the course of daily activities. Based on anecdotal information, winter ranges (when current Ivory-billed Woodpecker surveys are done) were much larger than nesting-season ranges (Tanner 1942). From this, if winter home ranges are equivalent to a circle with a 4.0 km radius, home range size would be 50 km2 (5000 ha), which would produce posterior probabilities of extinction slightly under 80% in both BDV [Bayou de View] and WR [White River]. From this analysis, we conclude that much greater search efforts will be required to obtain a level of 90% or greater for posterior probabilities of extinction."

I think the 'home range' argument is a bit tenuous (and could almost be argued in an opposite way), but not worth niggling over here.

and later, this:

"The search effort required to have a high degree of certainty that a species occurs (or does not occur) in an area becomes extremely large for populations of 10 or fewer individuals. Our analysis of the search effort for Ivory-billed Woodpeckers in the White River and Bayou de View, assuming a uniform distribution of birds if they are present, suggest that if birds were present the actual number of individuals was very low (N<2). With this assumption it is unlikely that birds were still present in the intensively searched area but not seen during surveys. However, below, we present distributions other than the uniform, which suggest higher probabilities that the Ivory-billed Woodpeckers may still persist in White River and Bayou de View."

and finally toward the end, this:

"The Ivory-billed Woodpecker surveys we considered included only ~12% of the forested habitat in the overall search area in Arkansas, so our analysis does not enable us to assess the likelihood that Ivory-billed Woodpeckers are extinct in the wider search area, much less across the currently presumably suitable habitat within the species’ historic range. Based on a statistical assessment using time series of historic sightings, Roberts (2006) argued that a declaration of extinction is premature for this species."

Just a couple of points I'll make about the study: As noted above, the paper's analysis ONLY covers work completed in Arkansas, and regardless of the outcome there, essentially argues for the need of similarly intense efforts carried out in other prospective areas of the Southeast before conclusions about IBWO persistence be drawn with any assurance. Also, this analysis operates on the assumption of no "valid detections" occurring during the period of study... an assumption that may be drawn for empirical reasons, but which may be totally false, as there were in fact both sightings claims and possible auditory encounters over that time period. Obviously, just 1 or 2 "valid detections" hugely alters the resultant statistics.

The take-home message here is what we've already known for a long time: that it is exceedingly difficult to demonstrate with great confidence the extinction of a species being repeatedly reported in vast habitat. Some folks, unfortunately, continue to think it easy.
The upside for conservation, should the Ivory-billed Woodpecker ever be conclusively documented, is massive --- the "charisma" of the species alone would send tremendous ripples through the conservation establishment, but beyond that, the vast habitat tracts to be saved would have impact on many other species as well... possibly more impact than carried by saving any other currently endangered North American bird. One ought not risk dismissing such an upside prematurely. As the authors note early in their article, "Rediscovery of “extinct” species occurs often enough to give one pause about making premature pronouncements." Indeed it does, indeed it does...

But enough academic rambling, now for your sheer viewing entertainment... some BennyHillified hummingbirds!
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-- Designating Extinction --

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New open access article available:

One of the common rhetorical grenades lobbed at the Ivory-bill search is that funding for endangered species is a zero-sum game with money spent on the IBWO being money lost to species that may have a better chance of profiting from such funding. Endangered Hawaiian birds are often used as an example for this argument.
Using Hawaiian birds as a model, a new paper out (from Cornell and other authors) appears to somewhat address this line of thinking here, focusing on the evidence needed for extinction designation.

Thanks to "PORCAR" over at IBWO Researchers Forum for pointing this paper out.

(I haven't had time to fully read/digest the piece, so may or may not have more to say about it later.)
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Friday, January 02, 2009

-- Getting the Year Off to a Good Start --

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More off-topic stuff (...early in year; time just for fun) :

THANK YOU, THANK YOU!! to whoever created this: The "BennyHillifier" available here. (turns any YouTube video into a Benny Hill routine).

And my contribution here (YouTube's famous "Snowball the Dancing Cockatoo" set to the beat).
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Thursday, January 01, 2009

-- Bird Blogs... --

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In the event that one of your New Year's resolutions is to read more bird blogs (and, in the event you have about 10 hours free to sort through these!) John Trapp has posted his latest updated roll of (~300) bird weblogs here.

As an aside, just noticed that Jonathan Rosen's elegy to birdwatching, "The Life of the Skies," is newly out in paperback.

And lastly this, from the Too-fun-not-to-pass-along Dept.:

Cat and parrot

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Wednesday, December 31, 2008

-- End Of Year --

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Wheeeeeeww... glad to kiss this year good-bye.... ;-)

And by way of yearly wrap-up, at this time of top ten lists, a rough slate of my own 10 semi-favorite Ivory-bill posts from the year just passed:

1. Close Encounters of the Bird Kind (from April)
2. Tanner Redux (May)
3. Say What? ( Jan.)
4. Population Stasis (July)
5. Sunday Contemplation (Dec.)
6. Thangs That Be a Buggin' Me ( June)
7. The Natives Are Restless (July)
8. Schrodinger's Cat (Feb.)
9. Birder's World Compendium ( Jan.)
10. Dogness ( April)

And a couple of NON-Ivory-bill-related posts I also enjoyed:

Obama Victorious... You Betcha
Science At The Edge (Jill Bolte Taylor)

Happy, Healthy, Brighter 2009 Everyone!.....

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Tuesday, December 30, 2008

-- "On Being Certain" --

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Epistemologists long ago explained why it's impossible to be certain about the nature of reality... then physicists explained why uncertainty underlies all science... and now a neurologist, Dr. Robert Burton, explains, in terms of brain chemistry, why certainty is a mirage:

http://us.macmillan.com/onbeingcertain
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Monday, December 29, 2008

-- 'nuther Center of Controversy Goes To Grave --

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Colorful Fielding Lewis, whose claims of Ivory-bill encounters in Louisiana in the 1970s could never be confirmed nor disproven died a week ago at age 78. Lewis persuaded premier ornithologist George Lowery Jr. of the reality of Ivory-bills in Louisiana in 1971, only to taint Lowery's reputation in the process.
Tim Gallagher devoted one chapter ("The Boxer") of his book "The Grail Bird" to the Louisiana character here (courtesy of Google).

One of Lewis's famous controversial photos of an Ivory-bill near the Atchafalaya leads off ~~(and is colorized)~~ this Dec. 2001 Birding Magazine article by birder Jim Williams.

Lewis's own book "Tales of a Louisiana Duck Hunter," which includes some of his Ivory-bill accounts, is available here.
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Sunday, December 28, 2008

-- I Digress --

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Infinity, Cantor, and the Continuum:

...and for those who can hardly wait for more, the second part of this video is here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhgNiqI-bt0&feature=related
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Friday, December 26, 2008

-- New and Improved? --

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David Luneau reports that a newly-fashioned "peeper-cam" (essentially a camera at the end of a pole) has been devised for use in the Arkansas IBWO search, checking out prospective woodpecker cavities.

Geoff Hill will be using newly-designed vibration-triggered cameras from National Geographic in the Florida search to better, and more selectively, capture images at prospective woodpecker sites in the Choctawhatchee.

And Bobby Harrison reports he will be setting up both still and animated (head-moving) IBWO decoys in January in his pursuit of Ivory-bills in Arkansas.

Finally, I believe Alan Mueller's ARK. team will be making greater use of recordings and double-knock sounds than was done in the past to try and attract the elusive quarry.
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Thursday, December 25, 2008

-- Just More Holiday Fare --

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Just a couple more seasonal offerings today:

Some more seasonal music for the Holiday...:
(George Winston's "The Holly and the Ivy" arrangement)

And another blogger has posted this old 25-min."Twilight Zone" Christmas episode (it's 50's-ish schmaltzy, but so-be-it, still classic).
(P.S. -- if you're a Rod Serling fan, most all the old Twilight Zone episodes are available on the Web, for free, at various sites.)

http://classicshowbiz.blogspot.com/2008/12/twilight-zone-christmas-episode-1960.html
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Wednesday, December 24, 2008

-- Peace On Earth, Goodwill To All --

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May it someday be so. . . .

Merry Christmas and a Bright New Year to all.
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Tuesday, December 23, 2008

-- An Old Joke --

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(...that just might have some bearing):

A scientist and his wife are driving out in the countryside. The wife turns to her husband and says, "Oh look over there... those sheep have been shorn."
To which the scientist-husband replies: "Why yes, on this side."
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Monday, December 22, 2008

-- Scott Crocker Talks About Film --

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Scott Crocker, producer of the independent documentary film, "Ghost Bird," is interviewed on a local NPR station here.

[ A few folks have emailed to ask what's up with IBWO Researchers Forum website, which seems to be down... I don't know, so if anyone can shed light on that feel free to send a comment here, or maybe it'll be back up before most of you read this post (Addendum: it's back up now.). (Oddly, the Ivory-billed Woodpecker Foundation website also went down for about 24 hrs. a couple days back.) There have been a number of general internet glitches in the last week, so possibly it relates to that??? ]
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-- Places To Look --

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I've been trying to encourage USFWS's Bob Russell to send me an updated list of his top places to look for Ivory-bills, since Mary Scott's website, which previously included such a list, was taken down. He hasn't had time to do that as yet, but with a new search season getting underway, folks might enjoy perusing his old Top Ten list (2006) which I located at Mary's former site using the internet "wayback machine," and can be viewed here.
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Sunday, December 21, 2008

-- Mary Scott on Tape --

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Mary Scott interview excerpt from the "Ghost Bird" documentary movie now available here:

http://ghostbirdmovie.com/preview/maryscott.html

Mary is the rather non-conventional/controversial Ivory-bill searcher who many credit with actually instigating in many ways the widespread interest in modern searches for the species (she formerly ran the popular BirdingAmerica website, which she has since taken down). Tim Gallagher devoted a chapter of his book, "The Grail Bird," to her. The "Bob" she repeatedly refers to in the film clip is "Bob Russell" of the US Fish and Wildlife Service and another long-time Ivory-bill researcher.

Addendum: well, leave it to Google; just discovered parts of "The Grail Bird" are online, including the chapter on Mary, here.
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-- Biding Time --

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While we await for news from what could be the last large scale season of searching for the Ivory-bill, here's a relatively recent YouTube addition pertaining to the search in Arkansas:

The nearly 2-hr. original Cornell rendition of this story presented to the AOU back in 2005 that started it all is available on YouTube as well:

On a different note, I continue to get some comments/emails asking about the fate of Mike Collins' IBWO paper: I have no special information, and presume Mike will post at his site if/when he has further specific details worth mentioning (I'm guessing there may be some resolution with the possibility of publication within the next 3 weeks, but that's STRICTLY a guess on my part). In the meantime, for any who missed it at the time, here an interview Mike did with another blogger a year ago:

http://birdist.blogspot.com/2007/12/mike-collins-ivory-billed-woodpecker.html
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Thursday, December 18, 2008

-- Irrigation Project Back On Tap --

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The irrigation plan (from the White River) for Arkansas farmland is back on track after a lawsuit stalling it (largely due to Ivory-bill concerns) has finally been dismissed. The legal doings are actually a bit convoluted and hard-to-follow, but story here.

Meanwhile, Cornell plans to start its new search season in early January (this is separate from Alan Mueller's USFW effort in Arkansas -- already underway).

Finally, if you haven't read the comments to the prior post, I believe the gist is that Mike Collins' 'flight dynamics' paper may yet be published by PLoS afterall; time will tell (if I am misconstruing things, or someone knows otherwise, please correct me).
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