-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A 'cautionary tale' with at least a smidgen of pertinence (false extinctions, weak assumptions, bias, rush-to-judgment) here:
http://reconciliationecology.blogspot.com/2008/03/resurrecting-jackrabbits-citizen.html
and a further take on it here.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Friday, March 21, 2008
-- What, Me Worry ;-) --
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Treatise #178 ;-) :
The seeming shyness and scarcity of sound from the Ivory-billed Woodpecker is often a subject of discontent among skeptical participants in this debate. At his blog, Jim McCormac (like others) worries over differences between the Ivory-bill and its Central American cousin, the Pale-billed Woodpecker, here:
http://jimmccormac.blogspot.com/2008/03/ivory-billeds-little-brother.html
But comparing behaviors of one species in one locale with a remnant population of a different species in an entirely different locale is always fraught with uncertainty. Moreover, what I believe commentators continually underestimate is the combined effects of natural selection, rarity, and large spaces. Species that come under heavy hunting pressure, over time, will naturally select for those individuals most wary of humans, leading to future generations that purposely avoid humans, as the wariest individuals survive and pass on their genes. When those future progeny are very scarce, inhabiting immense areas, and able to cover wide spaces, the scarcity of sound (and sightings for that matter) is not hard to account for.
Most readers have likely heard crows with some frequency in their area, but what if one could somehow distinguish the sounds of individual crows, and instead of simply listening for the presence of crows I asked you to listen for 'crow #12' and 'crow #38' ? --- that is more akin to the dilemma facing IBWO searchers listening for paltry few birds over wide distances. Some will argue that the Ivory-bill can't both be that scarce, yet also populous enough to be reproductively viable. But animals seeking mates do routinely find one another over huge distances, and a single IBWO pair could produce a couple dozen offspring in a lifetime, easily off-setting other losses and failures, and permitting a stable-state population to exist at low levels for decades across the southeast.
Purported Ivory-bill sounds and sightings will in fact likely continue to trickle in at a slow rate (whether any will be universally convincing or accompanied by a photograph/video, only time will tell) --- were they coming in at a far greater rate then, yes, one might more understandably expect definitive evidence of the species by now; but coming in at the rate they are, the difficulty of conclusive evidence is not so impossibly hard to fathom.
Somewhere in a comment below I wrote that "initial assumptions" are often the Achilles heel of science. It is indeed initial, ingrained, blind, and unproven assumptions that too many skeptics are married to (and don't even recognize having), that in large part this entire debate turns on. Having read a lot of the history and methods of the physical sciences, I'm not willing to be driven by initial assumptions; on-the-other-hand, I find that Ivory-bill skeptics, and frankly, biologists in general, are usually stubbornly unwilling to lay them aside.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Treatise #178 ;-) :
The seeming shyness and scarcity of sound from the Ivory-billed Woodpecker is often a subject of discontent among skeptical participants in this debate. At his blog, Jim McCormac (like others) worries over differences between the Ivory-bill and its Central American cousin, the Pale-billed Woodpecker, here:
http://jimmccormac.blogspot.com/2008/03/ivory-billeds-little-brother.html
But comparing behaviors of one species in one locale with a remnant population of a different species in an entirely different locale is always fraught with uncertainty. Moreover, what I believe commentators continually underestimate is the combined effects of natural selection, rarity, and large spaces. Species that come under heavy hunting pressure, over time, will naturally select for those individuals most wary of humans, leading to future generations that purposely avoid humans, as the wariest individuals survive and pass on their genes. When those future progeny are very scarce, inhabiting immense areas, and able to cover wide spaces, the scarcity of sound (and sightings for that matter) is not hard to account for.
Most readers have likely heard crows with some frequency in their area, but what if one could somehow distinguish the sounds of individual crows, and instead of simply listening for the presence of crows I asked you to listen for 'crow #12' and 'crow #38' ? --- that is more akin to the dilemma facing IBWO searchers listening for paltry few birds over wide distances. Some will argue that the Ivory-bill can't both be that scarce, yet also populous enough to be reproductively viable. But animals seeking mates do routinely find one another over huge distances, and a single IBWO pair could produce a couple dozen offspring in a lifetime, easily off-setting other losses and failures, and permitting a stable-state population to exist at low levels for decades across the southeast.
Purported Ivory-bill sounds and sightings will in fact likely continue to trickle in at a slow rate (whether any will be universally convincing or accompanied by a photograph/video, only time will tell) --- were they coming in at a far greater rate then, yes, one might more understandably expect definitive evidence of the species by now; but coming in at the rate they are, the difficulty of conclusive evidence is not so impossibly hard to fathom.
Somewhere in a comment below I wrote that "initial assumptions" are often the Achilles heel of science. It is indeed initial, ingrained, blind, and unproven assumptions that too many skeptics are married to (and don't even recognize having), that in large part this entire debate turns on. Having read a lot of the history and methods of the physical sciences, I'm not willing to be driven by initial assumptions; on-the-other-hand, I find that Ivory-bill skeptics, and frankly, biologists in general, are usually stubbornly unwilling to lay them aside.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, March 20, 2008
-- 'cuz, It's the Law --
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Following up a bit on Arthur C. Clarke's 3 laws I came across these additional precepts that might eventually impinge upon the Ivory-bill saga ;-) :
Sturgeon's Revelation: "90% of everything is crap."
Hanlon's Razor: "Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity."
Hofstadter's Law: "It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law."
[ you may need to be familiar with Douglas Hofstadter's writings to fully appreciate this one ]
and finally, Sosensky's 3rd Law of Birding: "Woodpeckers and creepers spend more time on the far side of the trunk."
which reminds me, if you've never perused them before, the "Universal Laws of Birding
http://www.speakingofbirds.com/resources/universal_laws_of_birding.htm
.................................................................
Elsewhere on the Web:
Out California-way, all three of Momma Owl's eggs hatched and nestlings appear to be doing well, making more regular appearances from beneath Mom's underside. I believe their names are Fuzzy, Wuzzy, and Scuzzy (...uhh, but Scuzzy prefers to be addressed as Sir Bartholomew):
http://www.cs.csubak.edu/owlcam/camera.php
And if you're into cranes, as a lot of birders are, I hope you caught this post last week at the "pinesabovesnow" blog:
http://pinesabovesnow.blogspot.com/2008/03/wildness-incarnate.html
...all for now.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Following up a bit on Arthur C. Clarke's 3 laws I came across these additional precepts that might eventually impinge upon the Ivory-bill saga ;-) :
Sturgeon's Revelation: "90% of everything is crap."
Hanlon's Razor: "Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity."
Hofstadter's Law: "It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law."
[ you may need to be familiar with Douglas Hofstadter's writings to fully appreciate this one ]
and finally, Sosensky's 3rd Law of Birding: "Woodpeckers and creepers spend more time on the far side of the trunk."
which reminds me, if you've never perused them before, the "Universal Laws of Birding
http://www.speakingofbirds.com/resources/universal_laws_of_birding.htm
.................................................................
Elsewhere on the Web:
Out California-way, all three of Momma Owl's eggs hatched and nestlings appear to be doing well, making more regular appearances from beneath Mom's underside. I believe their names are Fuzzy, Wuzzy, and Scuzzy (...uhh, but Scuzzy prefers to be addressed as Sir Bartholomew):
http://www.cs.csubak.edu/owlcam/camera.php
And if you're into cranes, as a lot of birders are, I hope you caught this post last week at the "pinesabovesnow" blog:
http://pinesabovesnow.blogspot.com/2008/03/wildness-incarnate.html
...all for now.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
-- Clarke's 3 Laws --
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
....Arthur C. Clarke 1917 - 2008.... R.I.P.
His 3 laws.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
....Arthur C. Clarke 1917 - 2008.... R.I.P.
His 3 laws.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday, March 15, 2008
-- Florida --
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The state of Florida has had more Ivory-bill rumors in the last 60 years than any other state, and still today holds more suitable habitat than any other region. It was also one of the very last areas where James Tanner confidently believed the species to reside. Though the most recent focus has been on the panhandle area (Choctawhatchee), historically, several areas of north, central, and south Florida were probably of greater interest at different times, and despite development, continue to hold promise. The Apalachicola/Chipola river system received wide attention (and was the source of many claims) in the past, and still does, in part because of the sheer difficulty of ever conducting thorough searches of that huge region. In past times, the Big Cypress area and Everglades regions in the south held interest as well. And in more recent times Jerry Jackson has expressed especial interest in the Suwannee swamp area, and also the Fakahatchee Strand, while others have especially touted the Wacissa and Aucilla River systems as areas of promise, among yet other less-publicized, but interesting bottomland tracts. In terms of habitat, geography, history, and sheer volume of reports, Florida is the single most likely state for Ivory-billed Woodpeckers to reside in, though many other states maintain the possibility.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The state of Florida has had more Ivory-bill rumors in the last 60 years than any other state, and still today holds more suitable habitat than any other region. It was also one of the very last areas where James Tanner confidently believed the species to reside. Though the most recent focus has been on the panhandle area (Choctawhatchee), historically, several areas of north, central, and south Florida were probably of greater interest at different times, and despite development, continue to hold promise. The Apalachicola/Chipola river system received wide attention (and was the source of many claims) in the past, and still does, in part because of the sheer difficulty of ever conducting thorough searches of that huge region. In past times, the Big Cypress area and Everglades regions in the south held interest as well. And in more recent times Jerry Jackson has expressed especial interest in the Suwannee swamp area, and also the Fakahatchee Strand, while others have especially touted the Wacissa and Aucilla River systems as areas of promise, among yet other less-publicized, but interesting bottomland tracts. In terms of habitat, geography, history, and sheer volume of reports, Florida is the single most likely state for Ivory-billed Woodpeckers to reside in, though many other states maintain the possibility.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, March 14, 2008
-- And More --
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here is what James Tanner wrote about overhead looks of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers distinguishing them from Pileateds:
Again, I stand by what I've stated previously: IF John Agnew's sketch is reasonably accurate of what he saw (and by that I principally mean the depiction of the white secondaries) there is little realistic option but that it be an Ivory-billed Woodpecker; if the sketch is inaccurate than we cannot know what he saw without knowing the specific inaccuracies.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here is what James Tanner wrote about overhead looks of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers distinguishing them from Pileateds:
"The important field character is that the white on the wing is on the rear half. By comparison a Pileated is stocky with shorter wings, the tail is slightly forked, and the white is on the front half of the wing.Is that clear enough for anybody? The leading edge is NOT a good indicator (stop depending on paintings in field guides by people who never saw the bird in the wild); moreover, the primaries are highly variable from bird to bird, and people do not notice bills in rapid overhead flights when they're trying to focus on body features, and even if they did, bill color depends on light and shadows and movement, not to mention you primarily only see the lower mandible from below (I can imagine how many different answers I'd get for the color of a Great Blue Heron's bill from observers viewing from below).
To summarize, the position of the white on the wing is by far the most reliable field character at all times."
Again, I stand by what I've stated previously: IF John Agnew's sketch is reasonably accurate of what he saw (and by that I principally mean the depiction of the white secondaries) there is little realistic option but that it be an Ivory-billed Woodpecker; if the sketch is inaccurate than we cannot know what he saw without knowing the specific inaccuracies.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, March 13, 2008
-- And So It Goes --
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
John Agnew turns in a loose description, sketch, and report of an Ivorybill sighting and already gets savaged for its imperfections in some internet quarters. If a field sketch and/or notes are too textbook, mind you (as in the David Kullivan case), they're accused of being falsely concocted. If they are rough (from a fleeting sighting) with possible errors they are too poor and shouldn't even be reported, say some. Don't report good sightings, they're not believable; don't report weak sightings, they're not worth it... Deja vu, for 60 years. Some of the statements seen around the Web critiquing John's report border on nonsensical, while masquerading as "science."
Yet NOT a single critiquing individual suggests what the bird sketched by John would be if not an Ivory-bill.... because there is NO reasonable alternative. I have no idea how accurate John's sketch is of what he saw, but, IF accurate, there is no other North American bird candidate the drawing could likely represent except an Ivory-billed Woodpecker (...so of course skeptics presume, in their perverse reverse thinking, it simply can't be accurate).
While skeptics accuse searchers of acting on anticipation, expectation, and wishful thinking, amazingly it is many skeptics at this point who have handcuffed themselves to a single viewpoint, locked into rigid expectations and preconceptions, long ago abandoning any real objectivity... and calling the kettle black.
When Copernicus, Galileo, and Kepler radically argued that the world was heliocentric (Earth going around the sun), Ptolemy and his followers simply produced increasingly complex models of epicycles upon epicycles and spheres upon spheres to show that any new data could be accounted for in a geocentric model (Earth as center of universe) --- there was always a possible counter-explanation to heliocentrism. Some modern-day skeptics' roots go back a long way.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
John Agnew turns in a loose description, sketch, and report of an Ivorybill sighting and already gets savaged for its imperfections in some internet quarters. If a field sketch and/or notes are too textbook, mind you (as in the David Kullivan case), they're accused of being falsely concocted. If they are rough (from a fleeting sighting) with possible errors they are too poor and shouldn't even be reported, say some. Don't report good sightings, they're not believable; don't report weak sightings, they're not worth it... Deja vu, for 60 years. Some of the statements seen around the Web critiquing John's report border on nonsensical, while masquerading as "science."
Yet NOT a single critiquing individual suggests what the bird sketched by John would be if not an Ivory-bill.... because there is NO reasonable alternative. I have no idea how accurate John's sketch is of what he saw, but, IF accurate, there is no other North American bird candidate the drawing could likely represent except an Ivory-billed Woodpecker (...so of course skeptics presume, in their perverse reverse thinking, it simply can't be accurate).
While skeptics accuse searchers of acting on anticipation, expectation, and wishful thinking, amazingly it is many skeptics at this point who have handcuffed themselves to a single viewpoint, locked into rigid expectations and preconceptions, long ago abandoning any real objectivity... and calling the kettle black.
When Copernicus, Galileo, and Kepler radically argued that the world was heliocentric (Earth going around the sun), Ptolemy and his followers simply produced increasingly complex models of epicycles upon epicycles and spheres upon spheres to show that any new data could be accounted for in a geocentric model (Earth as center of universe) --- there was always a possible counter-explanation to heliocentrism. Some modern-day skeptics' roots go back a long way.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
-- Wednesday Miscellany --
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr. Greg Lewbart and wife, part of last season's Choctawhatchee search team, were interviewed on an NPR station today, available here:
http://wunc.org/tsot/archive/sot0312a08.mp3/view
Elsewhere on the Web:
Artist John Agnew, who had the Florida Ivory-bill sighting reported previously, has a website for his general artwork here (some nice stuff):
http://www.angelfire.com/id/wildscenes/
The California Great Horned Owl nest on webcam has hatched out at least one baby by now, though Mom is usually covering the helpless nestling from sight:
http://www.cs.csubak.edu/owlcam/camera.php
And here, some good news (maybe), and some bad news.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr. Greg Lewbart and wife, part of last season's Choctawhatchee search team, were interviewed on an NPR station today, available here:
http://wunc.org/tsot/archive/sot0312a08.mp3/view
Elsewhere on the Web:
Artist John Agnew, who had the Florida Ivory-bill sighting reported previously, has a website for his general artwork here (some nice stuff):
http://www.angelfire.com/id/wildscenes/
The California Great Horned Owl nest on webcam has hatched out at least one baby by now, though Mom is usually covering the helpless nestling from sight:
http://www.cs.csubak.edu/owlcam/camera.php
And here, some good news (maybe), and some bad news.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
-- Stuff --
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Finally, an update (reporting to the end of Feb.) from Cornell's Mobile Team covering time spent in the Pearl River region (Louisiana) followed by week or more around the Pascagoula (Mississippi), one of the favored spots from last season. They are apparently now in southern Florida (unless they've already left to travel further north) and possibly areas that didn't get much coverage last season (no Ivorybill encounters reported thus far):
http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory/current0607/0708TravelLogs/MSTlog/document_view
Feel the need to address one other issue lest it be confusing to others out there. The John Agnew sighting linked to yesterday includes a sketch of the underwing of the bird he saw, which some, elsewhere on the Web, are erroneously claiming is a WRONG sketch for an Ivory-bill. There may or may not be problems with John's report, but the sketch is reasonably dead-on! This matter has been discussed at length before; the underwing as perceived in the field will not necessarily (or even usually) match the depictions done in field guides which are based upon museum specimens in the hand; in short, the white along the leading underwing edge (prominently depicted in field guides) doesn't necessarily appear to a typical observer. Professional artist Julie Zickefoose (among several) explained it over two years ago on my blog as follows in reference to a famous Arthur Allen photo of the IBWO:
As I've said before, with so many liars or fools apparently out there (in the skeptics' assessment), it's a wonder any data from Christmas or spring bird counts is ever taken seriously given its wholly unrigorous nature. Show me a report of 20 Starlings on a Christmas count and I'll give you a dozen different ways that report might be false or mistaken (yet with no verification whatsoever, most of us will accept the report no questions asked... because birding ain't rocket science and never will be).
To end on a lighter note, Martin Collinson, has produced one fine hat for birding (spiffy!!) at his site. If he can just have it done in green camo maybe it could become requisite attire for swamp searchers everywhere... or... maybe not.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Finally, an update (reporting to the end of Feb.) from Cornell's Mobile Team covering time spent in the Pearl River region (Louisiana) followed by week or more around the Pascagoula (Mississippi), one of the favored spots from last season. They are apparently now in southern Florida (unless they've already left to travel further north) and possibly areas that didn't get much coverage last season (no Ivorybill encounters reported thus far):
http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory/current0607/0708TravelLogs/MSTlog/document_view
Feel the need to address one other issue lest it be confusing to others out there. The John Agnew sighting linked to yesterday includes a sketch of the underwing of the bird he saw, which some, elsewhere on the Web, are erroneously claiming is a WRONG sketch for an Ivory-bill. There may or may not be problems with John's report, but the sketch is reasonably dead-on! This matter has been discussed at length before; the underwing as perceived in the field will not necessarily (or even usually) match the depictions done in field guides which are based upon museum specimens in the hand; in short, the white along the leading underwing edge (prominently depicted in field guides) doesn't necessarily appear to a typical observer. Professional artist Julie Zickefoose (among several) explained it over two years ago on my blog as follows in reference to a famous Arthur Allen photo of the IBWO:
"Here's what's happening in that photo, and in life:How many white primaries an observer might be expected to see in a flapping Ivorybill overhead is also difficult to know, given that, by far, most of the white is confined to secondaries in the underwing. And one thing is for sure, Agnew's sketch, as drawn, certainly couldn't have depicted a Pileated Woodpecker, but yes, it does fairly match an Ivory-bill.
The famous (and only good) Arthur Allen photo of the flying ivory-bill was taken from beneath, with bright overhead lighting. As such, the white secondaries and inner primaries are illuminated and clearly read as white. The white lining of the underwing, which includes the underwing coverts and feathering along the ventral surface of the patagium, does not appear white in this photo because it is in shadow, and the light is not shining through it. If you look at any photo of a flying bird, taken from below and brightly lit from above, light is able to pass only through the flight feathers along the trailing edge of the wing, since there's only one layer of feathers there. Light really can't pass through a patagium, since it's heavily feathered, and there's skin and bone to further block that light. So, confusingly, this "wing lining" appears dark in the photo. But rest assured that Roger Peterson and other careful bird painters did get it right. And field guide plates emphasize local color rather than artifacts of light, because their mission is to show what color the bird actually is, rather than the color it may appear to be."
As I've said before, with so many liars or fools apparently out there (in the skeptics' assessment), it's a wonder any data from Christmas or spring bird counts is ever taken seriously given its wholly unrigorous nature. Show me a report of 20 Starlings on a Christmas count and I'll give you a dozen different ways that report might be false or mistaken (yet with no verification whatsoever, most of us will accept the report no questions asked... because birding ain't rocket science and never will be).
To end on a lighter note, Martin Collinson, has produced one fine hat for birding (spiffy!!) at his site. If he can just have it done in green camo maybe it could become requisite attire for swamp searchers everywhere... or... maybe not.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, March 10, 2008
-- New Choctawhatchee Update --
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New update from Auburn's Dr. Hill here, reporting further possible auditory and brief sight encounters of Ivorybills in January (including possible double sighting on Jan. 12 --- observer's description of one of those 2 sightings is further linked to here). Nothing new that will excite cynics, nor any photos attained, but enough to maintain high interest in the Florida panhandle site.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New update from Auburn's Dr. Hill here, reporting further possible auditory and brief sight encounters of Ivorybills in January (including possible double sighting on Jan. 12 --- observer's description of one of those 2 sightings is further linked to here). Nothing new that will excite cynics, nor any photos attained, but enough to maintain high interest in the Florida panhandle site.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, March 09, 2008
-- Speaking of Film --
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brief interview in the Washington Post with George Butler whose "The Lord God Bird" film premiered in Washington DC this weekend (is this really the final cut???): [ Correction: it premieres next Fri. ]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/07/AR2008030700929.html
Coincidentally, Alex Karpovsky's fictionalized IBWO movie, "Woodpecker" premiered at the SXSW Film Festival in Texas this weekend:
http://austinist.com/2008/03/07/sxsw_film_previ_2.php
However, have not seen any listings for showings of Scott Crocker's independent film, "Ghost Bird" ??? :
http://www.ghostbirdmovie.com/
Finally, David Luneau has posted these stills of Pileated Woodpeckers in flight taken recently by an automatic camera setup in Arkansas:
http://www.ibwo.org/reconyx6.html
....now if we can just get the film we really want. . . .
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brief interview in the Washington Post with George Butler whose "The Lord God Bird" film premiered in Washington DC this weekend (is this really the final cut???): [ Correction: it premieres next Fri. ]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/07/AR2008030700929.html
Coincidentally, Alex Karpovsky's fictionalized IBWO movie, "Woodpecker" premiered at the SXSW Film Festival in Texas this weekend:
http://austinist.com/2008/03/07/sxsw_film_previ_2.php
However, have not seen any listings for showings of Scott Crocker's independent film, "Ghost Bird" ??? :
http://www.ghostbirdmovie.com/
Finally, David Luneau has posted these stills of Pileated Woodpeckers in flight taken recently by an automatic camera setup in Arkansas:
http://www.ibwo.org/reconyx6.html
....now if we can just get the film we really want. . . .
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, March 07, 2008
-- Captured On Film... --
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
...made ya look...
okay, this large, black-and-white critter captured on film is NOT avian, but rather a rare wolverine, photographed by remote research camera in California, where many thought the species was extirpated (last documented sighting going back to the 1920s). hmmmm.... has a familiar ring to it. The story here:
http://oregonstate.edu/dept/ncs/newsarch/2008/Mar08/wolverine.html
And, speaking of birds, here a story on "Beck's Petrel" being rediscovered after an 80-year absence:
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/03/07/europe/EU-BRITAIN-SCI-Britain-Lost-Bird.php
Meanwhile, Bill Pulliam on his blog (which touches on Ivorybill subject matter on occasion), takes issue with one of Mike Collins' claims from last year here:
http://bbill.blogspot.com/2008/03/some-old-news.html
.... a happy birthday to Mike, by the way, who turned 50 today, or as I'm sure he'd rather not think of it, a half-century-old as of Friday.
...............................................................
Elsewhere on the Web:
I've never actually been a huge fan of John James Audubon's paintings (although I certainly recognize their historical value), but for the many who are, his complete bird paintings have now been posted online by the University of Pittsburg here:
http://digital.library.pitt.edu/a/audubon/
Probably, my personal favorite from his work is his lively rendition of a certain fascinating extinct southern species (no, NOT the Ivorybill).
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
...made ya look...
okay, this large, black-and-white critter captured on film is NOT avian, but rather a rare wolverine, photographed by remote research camera in California, where many thought the species was extirpated (last documented sighting going back to the 1920s). hmmmm.... has a familiar ring to it. The story here:
http://oregonstate.edu/dept/ncs/newsarch/2008/Mar08/wolverine.html
And, speaking of birds, here a story on "Beck's Petrel" being rediscovered after an 80-year absence:
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/03/07/europe/EU-BRITAIN-SCI-Britain-Lost-Bird.php
Meanwhile, Bill Pulliam on his blog (which touches on Ivorybill subject matter on occasion), takes issue with one of Mike Collins' claims from last year here:
http://bbill.blogspot.com/2008/03/some-old-news.html
.... a happy birthday to Mike, by the way, who turned 50 today, or as I'm sure he'd rather not think of it, a half-century-old as of Friday.
...............................................................
Elsewhere on the Web:
I've never actually been a huge fan of John James Audubon's paintings (although I certainly recognize their historical value), but for the many who are, his complete bird paintings have now been posted online by the University of Pittsburg here:
http://digital.library.pitt.edu/a/audubon/
Probably, my personal favorite from his work is his lively rendition of a certain fascinating extinct southern species (no, NOT the Ivorybill).
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
-- Cornell Update --
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Latest Cornell Arkansas search team update is now posted here (though ends as of Feb 14, almost 3 weeks ago):
http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory/current0607/0708TravelLogs/ARlog0708/document_view
Reminiscent of some of the Mobile Team posts, it's a bit long on dietary information and a tad short of anything much Ivorybill-wise! Also, oddly neglects to summarize in any way the prior helicopter searches, which barely get a mention, though played up earlier on.
I suspect this means a Mobile Team update will follow shortly as well. The Mobile Team has apparently backtracked to the west from their last posted Alabama location, as one might've expected. They would appear to have a lot of ground to cover in the next couple months.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Latest Cornell Arkansas search team update is now posted here (though ends as of Feb 14, almost 3 weeks ago):
http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory/current0607/0708TravelLogs/ARlog0708/document_view
Reminiscent of some of the Mobile Team posts, it's a bit long on dietary information and a tad short of anything much Ivorybill-wise! Also, oddly neglects to summarize in any way the prior helicopter searches, which barely get a mention, though played up earlier on.
I suspect this means a Mobile Team update will follow shortly as well. The Mobile Team has apparently backtracked to the west from their last posted Alabama location, as one might've expected. They would appear to have a lot of ground to cover in the next couple months.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, February 29, 2008
-- Leap Day --
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
First, a quick note re: the Great Horned Owl webcam in California I linked to awhile back. Mama Owl has been diligently sitting on 3 eggs for several weeks and the first baby ought to hatch out any day now, so you may enjoy monitoring the festivities and childrearing as they unfold here:
http://www.cs.csubak.edu/owlcam/camera.php
Been over a month since Cornell's last updates, and approaching two months since an Auburn update. In the past, some have hoped that such time lapses might imply SOMEthing significant happening, but I've heard nothing positive coming from Arkansas quarters, and usually such previous silences merely reflected a lack of anything worth reporting. Would be nice to know exactly WHERE Cornell's Mobile Team unit is at this point, though.
Anyway, lack of news gives me more time to clutter up the left-hand margin of the blog with more schtuff. So I've added a very short blogroll of the following bird/nature blogs which I check in on semi-regularly (and BTW, most of these DON'T share my opinion on the IBWO):
http://birdstuff.blogspot.com
John Trapp's blog remains a favorite of mine for it's quirky, unpredictable subject matter and style. Not the standard sort of bird blog, so won't be everyone's cup-of-tea, but then that's what I like about it. Also contains a useful, extensive blogroll of other bird sites.
.................................................................
http://www.birddigiscoping.com/blog.html
"Mike's Birding and Digiscoping Blog," another of my favorites and widely-read around the Web; hardly needs mention here. It's title however may scare off some who have no interest in digiscoping, so worth noting that Mike covers a lot more than optics and photography at his site, though many especially seek his advice in those areas. His digiscoped pictures are always a delight, but my own favorite posts are his thoughtful word essays on birds and our relationship to them. Enjoy...
................................................................
http://thedrinkingbird.blogspot.com
A relatively new, and somewhat oddly-titled blog; focuses a lot on North Carolina birding, somewhat limiting its audience (but does touch on other subjects), and the writing is consistently excellent and witty. Worth a read, just for the wordsmithing (as well as good info available), if you've never stopped by before.
...............................................................
http://proregulus.blogspot.com
If you love British humor (and don't all Americans!?) British scientist/birder Martin Collinson gives you a serving of it every week on his blog. As a British site, his precise subjects may not always be of interest to American readers, but his style will usually plant a smile on your face.
..............................................................
http://pinesabovesnow.blogspot.com
Not a bird blog, but writer Julie Dunlap's "pinesabovesnow" blog (the title being a phrase from Aldo Leopold) focuses on good nature writing to recommend to its readers. Something I for one can't get too much of.
..............................................................
http://www.bornagainbirdwatcher.com/
Have just added John Riutta's 'Born Again Bird Watcher' blog to the mix. Why not! Again, a blog that hits upon slightly different topics from the more standard bird-news blogs.
.............................................................
And then below the brief blogroll I've also listed a few commercial sites on the Web, of possible interest to readers.
hmmmm... maybe next I'll add a daily Sudoku puzzle. . . .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
First, a quick note re: the Great Horned Owl webcam in California I linked to awhile back. Mama Owl has been diligently sitting on 3 eggs for several weeks and the first baby ought to hatch out any day now, so you may enjoy monitoring the festivities and childrearing as they unfold here:
http://www.cs.csubak.edu/owlcam/camera.php
Been over a month since Cornell's last updates, and approaching two months since an Auburn update. In the past, some have hoped that such time lapses might imply SOMEthing significant happening, but I've heard nothing positive coming from Arkansas quarters, and usually such previous silences merely reflected a lack of anything worth reporting. Would be nice to know exactly WHERE Cornell's Mobile Team unit is at this point, though.
Anyway, lack of news gives me more time to clutter up the left-hand margin of the blog with more schtuff. So I've added a very short blogroll of the following bird/nature blogs which I check in on semi-regularly (and BTW, most of these DON'T share my opinion on the IBWO):
http://birdstuff.blogspot.com
John Trapp's blog remains a favorite of mine for it's quirky, unpredictable subject matter and style. Not the standard sort of bird blog, so won't be everyone's cup-of-tea, but then that's what I like about it. Also contains a useful, extensive blogroll of other bird sites.
.................................................................
http://www.birddigiscoping.com/blog.html
"Mike's Birding and Digiscoping Blog," another of my favorites and widely-read around the Web; hardly needs mention here. It's title however may scare off some who have no interest in digiscoping, so worth noting that Mike covers a lot more than optics and photography at his site, though many especially seek his advice in those areas. His digiscoped pictures are always a delight, but my own favorite posts are his thoughtful word essays on birds and our relationship to them. Enjoy...
................................................................
http://thedrinkingbird.blogspot.com
A relatively new, and somewhat oddly-titled blog; focuses a lot on North Carolina birding, somewhat limiting its audience (but does touch on other subjects), and the writing is consistently excellent and witty. Worth a read, just for the wordsmithing (as well as good info available), if you've never stopped by before.
...............................................................
http://proregulus.blogspot.com
If you love British humor (and don't all Americans!?) British scientist/birder Martin Collinson gives you a serving of it every week on his blog. As a British site, his precise subjects may not always be of interest to American readers, but his style will usually plant a smile on your face.
..............................................................
http://pinesabovesnow.blogspot.com
Not a bird blog, but writer Julie Dunlap's "pinesabovesnow" blog (the title being a phrase from Aldo Leopold) focuses on good nature writing to recommend to its readers. Something I for one can't get too much of.
..............................................................
http://www.bornagainbirdwatcher.com/
Have just added John Riutta's 'Born Again Bird Watcher' blog to the mix. Why not! Again, a blog that hits upon slightly different topics from the more standard bird-news blogs.
.............................................................
And then below the brief blogroll I've also listed a few commercial sites on the Web, of possible interest to readers.
hmmmm... maybe next I'll add a daily Sudoku puzzle. . . .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, February 28, 2008
-- Another Book Recommendation --
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
While biding time, just another book recommendation.... Many know by now that despite spending most of adulthood in the biological sciences, my real bias runs towards the physical sciences. I'm especially fond of writers, few and far between, who are able to clearly communicate both the complexity and underlying basics of science to the layman. No one does this any better, nor in a more pithy yet engaging manner, than award-winning writer K.C. Cole. Her 2003 volume (which I only recently came upon) "Mind Over Matter: Conversations With the Cosmos" is a wonderful compendium of 90+ simple but trenchant essays on scientific matters.
Is the "Ivory-billed Woodpecker" anywhere to be found in this volume... no... but there are points and passages having to do with common sense, observation, complexity, certainty, interpretation, and default judgments, as they pertain to cosmology, particle physics, astronomy, quantum theory, and the like, which do in fact relate to controversies swirling around the swampland's most iconic bird... or so it seems to me.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
While biding time, just another book recommendation.... Many know by now that despite spending most of adulthood in the biological sciences, my real bias runs towards the physical sciences. I'm especially fond of writers, few and far between, who are able to clearly communicate both the complexity and underlying basics of science to the layman. No one does this any better, nor in a more pithy yet engaging manner, than award-winning writer K.C. Cole. Her 2003 volume (which I only recently came upon) "Mind Over Matter: Conversations With the Cosmos" is a wonderful compendium of 90+ simple but trenchant essays on scientific matters.
Is the "Ivory-billed Woodpecker" anywhere to be found in this volume... no... but there are points and passages having to do with common sense, observation, complexity, certainty, interpretation, and default judgments, as they pertain to cosmology, particle physics, astronomy, quantum theory, and the like, which do in fact relate to controversies swirling around the swampland's most iconic bird... or so it seems to me.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
-- Looking Ahead --
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Soon we'll be entering the last couple months of this potentially final extensive search season for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. What a ride it's been; full of sound and fury, a cast of characters to fill a novel, books, websites galore, and at least 3 independent films... and, as Yogi B. would say, "it's not over, 'til it's over." Three possible outcomes come easily to mind:
1. Definitive documentation is obtained this season insuring further field work on behalf of the species.
2. Better, but still not conclusive, documentation is obtained (either in the form of multiple, more complete/credible sighting reports, or improved, yet still not definitive, photographic evidence), inflaming even further the division over how or if to proceed... NOT a wind-up to be wished-for, but can't be completely ruled out.
3. No better evidence for the Ivorybill's existence is found this season than already stands from past searches, drying up interest and funding in most quarters for continuance of the effort (except on a small scale, or by independent searchers, and the IBWO Foundation which is committed to the search). Even worse, many skeptics will take perceived failure to document the species in the 2005-8 period as confirmation that the species went extinct in the 1940s; a leap impossible, if not outright foolish, to make.
Time is getting short, and there may be no new ideas to be tried. As always, March - April are potentially two of the best months for Ivorybill searching. Moreover, IBWO reports of the past have most often popped up unexpectedly, out-of-the-blue --- the photo documentation now demanded could likewise come at any moment, from a human or from a 25-day-old automatic camera snapshot revealing a bird never seen by ground searchers, and now long gone from the area... or... it may simply never happen, and that must be recognized.
Just a couple of points I'd reiterate:
1. MOST of the concentrated effort looking for Ivorybills the last few years has been in Arkansas' Big Woods and Florida's Choctawhatchee region, two areas that historically, hardly registered as locales to look for IBWOs. More recently South Carolina's Congaree and Texas' Big Thicket, regions with much greater past IBWO gossip, have been focused on. But other areas of historical significance may still not have received the attention they need (though Cornell's Mobile Team and other independents are checking most of them out --- again I'd be thinking in terms of central and south Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi).
In short, negative results from Big Woods and Choctawhatchee, two areas not of great interest 5-6 years ago, threaten to curtail interest in other areas, not to mention casting an even greater cynical pall on future sightings turned in and meeting with knee-jerk ridicule.
2. I forfeited most hope some time ago that the Ivorybill could be saved even if found. The search for the IBWO is for me a largely scientific endeavor now to prove once-and-for-all how easily a large bird can evade detection (as defined by conclusive photographic documentation) for 60 years; to demonstrate that scientific hubris, and non-empirical, conjecture-slathered hubris alone, is what has backed the notion of IBWO extinction.
(Not to be mis-understood here, I'm all for making efforts to save the species, even if they are doomed in the long run, just as I'm all for efforts to save C. Condors and Whooping Cranes, or Blackburnian Warblers for that matter, all of which, given enough time, are no doubt doomed, despite temporary upticks in their populations). We treat human beings when they are sick even though we know eventually they will die; species can be treated with that same consideration, despite the demise they ultimately face.
3. Finally, some folks (or, in the case of Cornell, institutions), claiming sightings, have put future reputations and credibility on the line for this bird, even more-so than those of us who argue persistently from a keyboard on its behalf. For them especially, a definitive conclusion to this saga (which of course means documenting the bird!), is needed lest they be sequestered to a limbo-land of doubt well into the future.
In short, even with a negative outcome in the next 2-3 months (and I still have significant hope for this season), there are reasons not to abandon the effort altogether, though the chorus for pulling the plug on public funding will swell. And "believers" must be realistic about the widespread perceptions at this late date, if no documentation is forthcoming.
Harking back to a blog post from over a week ago, it is probably better to keep expectations low, and be happily surprised by a positive outcome, than to hold expectations very high and then have to slink from them come May. Plenty of possibility remains, but time and patience run thin. What would appear to be needed at this late point in the game is not so much skill, or technology, or planning, or foresight, but plain, old-fashioned... luck!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Soon we'll be entering the last couple months of this potentially final extensive search season for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. What a ride it's been; full of sound and fury, a cast of characters to fill a novel, books, websites galore, and at least 3 independent films... and, as Yogi B. would say, "it's not over, 'til it's over." Three possible outcomes come easily to mind:
1. Definitive documentation is obtained this season insuring further field work on behalf of the species.
2. Better, but still not conclusive, documentation is obtained (either in the form of multiple, more complete/credible sighting reports, or improved, yet still not definitive, photographic evidence), inflaming even further the division over how or if to proceed... NOT a wind-up to be wished-for, but can't be completely ruled out.
3. No better evidence for the Ivorybill's existence is found this season than already stands from past searches, drying up interest and funding in most quarters for continuance of the effort (except on a small scale, or by independent searchers, and the IBWO Foundation which is committed to the search). Even worse, many skeptics will take perceived failure to document the species in the 2005-8 period as confirmation that the species went extinct in the 1940s; a leap impossible, if not outright foolish, to make.
Time is getting short, and there may be no new ideas to be tried. As always, March - April are potentially two of the best months for Ivorybill searching. Moreover, IBWO reports of the past have most often popped up unexpectedly, out-of-the-blue --- the photo documentation now demanded could likewise come at any moment, from a human or from a 25-day-old automatic camera snapshot revealing a bird never seen by ground searchers, and now long gone from the area... or... it may simply never happen, and that must be recognized.
Just a couple of points I'd reiterate:
1. MOST of the concentrated effort looking for Ivorybills the last few years has been in Arkansas' Big Woods and Florida's Choctawhatchee region, two areas that historically, hardly registered as locales to look for IBWOs. More recently South Carolina's Congaree and Texas' Big Thicket, regions with much greater past IBWO gossip, have been focused on. But other areas of historical significance may still not have received the attention they need (though Cornell's Mobile Team and other independents are checking most of them out --- again I'd be thinking in terms of central and south Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi).
In short, negative results from Big Woods and Choctawhatchee, two areas not of great interest 5-6 years ago, threaten to curtail interest in other areas, not to mention casting an even greater cynical pall on future sightings turned in and meeting with knee-jerk ridicule.
2. I forfeited most hope some time ago that the Ivorybill could be saved even if found. The search for the IBWO is for me a largely scientific endeavor now to prove once-and-for-all how easily a large bird can evade detection (as defined by conclusive photographic documentation) for 60 years; to demonstrate that scientific hubris, and non-empirical, conjecture-slathered hubris alone, is what has backed the notion of IBWO extinction.
(Not to be mis-understood here, I'm all for making efforts to save the species, even if they are doomed in the long run, just as I'm all for efforts to save C. Condors and Whooping Cranes, or Blackburnian Warblers for that matter, all of which, given enough time, are no doubt doomed, despite temporary upticks in their populations). We treat human beings when they are sick even though we know eventually they will die; species can be treated with that same consideration, despite the demise they ultimately face.
3. Finally, some folks (or, in the case of Cornell, institutions), claiming sightings, have put future reputations and credibility on the line for this bird, even more-so than those of us who argue persistently from a keyboard on its behalf. For them especially, a definitive conclusion to this saga (which of course means documenting the bird!), is needed lest they be sequestered to a limbo-land of doubt well into the future.
In short, even with a negative outcome in the next 2-3 months (and I still have significant hope for this season), there are reasons not to abandon the effort altogether, though the chorus for pulling the plug on public funding will swell. And "believers" must be realistic about the widespread perceptions at this late date, if no documentation is forthcoming.
Harking back to a blog post from over a week ago, it is probably better to keep expectations low, and be happily surprised by a positive outcome, than to hold expectations very high and then have to slink from them come May. Plenty of possibility remains, but time and patience run thin. What would appear to be needed at this late point in the game is not so much skill, or technology, or planning, or foresight, but plain, old-fashioned... luck!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, February 24, 2008
-- Ivory-billed Gala --
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brief news report here related to the 2nd annual gala of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker Foundation, in Huntsville, Alabama, where Jerry Jackson spoke last evening:
http://www.al.com/news/huntsvilletimes/index.ssf?/base/news/1203848165247100.xml&coll=1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brief news report here related to the 2nd annual gala of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker Foundation, in Huntsville, Alabama, where Jerry Jackson spoke last evening:
http://www.al.com/news/huntsvilletimes/index.ssf?/base/news/1203848165247100.xml&coll=1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, February 22, 2008
-- The ACONE System --
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One of the technological side benefits to come out of the organized search for Ivorybills has been the deployment of the computerized ACONE camera system to the search in Bayou de View --- to capture automatically on film, over a relatively wide field-of-view, birds meeting specific size and profile parameters that fly into view. I've been impressed with the capabilities and results achieved with this robotic system. Other automatic camera systems (whether time-lapse or motion-activated) have various potential problems associated with them that this system bypasses. And there are always potential flaws with ground searches, helicopter searches, stakeouts, and the like. The ACONE system, pointed at a likely flyway for a long enough period of time, would seem one of the soundest (and most efficient) techniques employed in this entire effort.
But of course the bird must still fly in front of the camera, and it is discouraging indeed (specifically for the Arkansas search) that in close to a year-and-a-half of application the ACONE system, directed at what seems like just such a logical flight path for the bird, has failed to capture an Ivorybill on film. I find this possibly more dismaying than the scarcity of results from all the other efforts of on-site people combined, which I think easier to explain away. Possibly, it is a system that can remain in place in selected locales for a period of time even in the event that at some point ground searches are suspended (depending on funding). Whatever the final outcome of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker search itself, the honing of the ACONE system is to my mind one of the very positive by-products of this whole endeavor. It is a tool likely to have future uses in contexts which are not even foreseeable as yet.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One of the technological side benefits to come out of the organized search for Ivorybills has been the deployment of the computerized ACONE camera system to the search in Bayou de View --- to capture automatically on film, over a relatively wide field-of-view, birds meeting specific size and profile parameters that fly into view. I've been impressed with the capabilities and results achieved with this robotic system. Other automatic camera systems (whether time-lapse or motion-activated) have various potential problems associated with them that this system bypasses. And there are always potential flaws with ground searches, helicopter searches, stakeouts, and the like. The ACONE system, pointed at a likely flyway for a long enough period of time, would seem one of the soundest (and most efficient) techniques employed in this entire effort.
But of course the bird must still fly in front of the camera, and it is discouraging indeed (specifically for the Arkansas search) that in close to a year-and-a-half of application the ACONE system, directed at what seems like just such a logical flight path for the bird, has failed to capture an Ivorybill on film. I find this possibly more dismaying than the scarcity of results from all the other efforts of on-site people combined, which I think easier to explain away. Possibly, it is a system that can remain in place in selected locales for a period of time even in the event that at some point ground searches are suspended (depending on funding). Whatever the final outcome of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker search itself, the honing of the ACONE system is to my mind one of the very positive by-products of this whole endeavor. It is a tool likely to have future uses in contexts which are not even foreseeable as yet.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)