-- Draft Recovery Plan For the Ivorybill --

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US Fish and Wildlife has finally posted its draft recovery plan (pdf) for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker here:

http://www.fws.gov/ivorybill/

(hmmm... talk about throwing red meat to skeptics ;-)))
...haven't had a chance to read it entirely myself though yet (it's close to 200 pgs., longer than Tanner's original monograph).

My hope to talk about 'infinity' turned into a piece too long to post, so will either cut it down or drop entirely, and replace with another post to make the same point (having to do with scientific thinking).

In the "let's-continue-to-beat-the-Luneau-video-to-death" category Louis Bevier has added some further skeptical (and "under construction") analysis to his website here:

http://web.mac.com/lrbevier/ivorybilled/Comparisons.html

At the same time skeptics insist no more money should be spent on the Ivory-bill, they persist in spending their own energy in attempts to debunk the bird's existence.

Gotta go now to check on some possible misinformation elsewhere about Birds of Paradise.

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-- Stuff... --

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The original, brief video from Auburn of a purported Ivory-bill along the Chocatwhatchee should be up on the Web soon giving folks something fresh and new to bicker over ; - )

And Dan Mennill of the Auburn team has posted a few of the better examples of double-knocks from this past season here:

http://web2.uwindsor.ca/courses/biology/dmennill/IBWO/IBWO07News.html

....no doubt in actuality just a couple of those pesky Gadwalls giving some wing-clap high-fives to one another.

This week's (Aug. 17) edition of Science Magazine includes a 4+ page article by Erik Stokstad rehashing the Ivory-billed saga to this point. Doesn't add much new to the discussion, but with all the controversy involved I suspect Science felt pressure to do an update. There is behind-the-scenes mention of tension between Cornell's John Fitzpatrick and Jerry Jackson, but in reality conflicts amongst various protagonists within the Ivory-bill story have been around a long time (preceding the original Cornell announcement), even if not widely discussed (BTW, somewhat interesting to see elsewhere that Jackson is listed as the keynote speaker for next February's 2nd annual GALA celebration of Bobby Harrison's Ivory-billed Woodpecker Foundation).

Oddly, Auburn's Geoff Hill is quoted at times in regards to the Cornell evidence, but barely mentioned for his own claims in Florida. Hill is said to believe Cornell became convinced of the Ivory-bill's presence because they placed too much weight on the Luneau video --- this, I believe, is mistaken, or at least misleading. Cornell's commentary makes it fairly clear that Fitz was convinced the Ivory-bill existed by the multiple sightings and details of several credible observers. The Luneau video was (like the acoustic data) simply an additional piece of evidence desperately needed for moving ahead toward publication (but without it, Fitz would've been personally no less convinced as I understand it).

Kinda ashame we have to wait 'til winter for searching to begin anew --- there will probably be a number of piecemeal Ivorybilled-related items coming along through the remainder of summer but nothing amounting to much.

Not sure yet, but my next post may be on the topic of "infinity," so keep in mind that there are as many points in a 6-inch long line as there are in a 6-mile long line, or as many odd numbers as there are total integers in the real number system (although you'll be pleased to know I won't be presenting the mathematical proofs here).

Later....
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-- Pseudoskeptics Unite!! --

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Many many years ago I belonged to the skeptics' organization, "Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal" (CSICOP), but after several years dropped membership once it appeared to me that, rather than objectively, open-mindedly studying their selected subjects, they were often specifically entering investigations solely with a goal of "debunking" --- in short, they had already decided what their general findings would be before initiating a study.
As in the Ivory-bill debate, often the 'debunking' simply meant finding an alternative explanation for an observed phenomenon and then assuming the alternative explanation was correct based, not on any actual evidence, but solely on perceived probabilities. Moreover, I don't recall them ever going after the indiscretions or weak science of more "establishment" parts of the medical and science community (but I haven't kept up with them over the years, so maybe they have). Though I still like a lot of the work they do I've never rejoined them.

Anyway, I was reminded of all this by a Wikipedia article sent to me from a reader (thanks) that all the "pseudo-skeptics" out there, and others, can read:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudoskepticism

....a number of interesting points made in the piece, including this list of "characteristics" of pseudoskeptics:

• The tendency to deny, rather than doubt
• Double standards in the application of criticism
• The making of judgments without full inquiry
• Tendency to discredit, rather than investigate
• Use of ridicule or ad hominem attacks in lieu of arguments
• Pejorative labeling of proponents as 'promoters', 'pseudoscientists' or practitioners of 'pathological science.'
• Presenting insufficient evidence or proof
• Assuming criticism requires no burden of proof
• Making unsubstantiated counter-claims
• Counter-claims based on plausibility rather than empirical evidence
• Suggesting that unconvincing evidence is grounds for dismissing it
• ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- More AOU --

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Another post here by an attendee of the recent AOU meeting with some brief commentary on the Auburn presentations.

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-- Late Night Thoughts --

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Given the aspersions skeptics have cast at those claiming to see Ivory-bills I'm wondering if all past Christmas/spring bird count reports turned in by the likes of Hicks, Guthrie, Hill, Gallagher, etc. etc. should be automatically tossed out, or at least closely reviewed? If they are mistaken about the Ivory-bill how many other of their 100's or 1000's of bird identifications have been wrong?
Of course a lot of other people who participate in counts are even less experienced than these IBWO sighters. Surely for the sake of accuracy their count reports must also be discarded as untrustworthy.
And I s'pose too the recent extensive Audubon study evaluating declining bird species, based upon 40 years-worth of anecdotal, unverified data coming from just such folks, clearly lacks validity, and ought be tossed aside as deeply flawed (just trying to be consistent here).
Now that I think of it the whole biological definition of "species" seems to always be in flux or debatable, and with ornithological "splitting" and "lumping" and name-changing occurring on a yearly basis, sheeeesh, maybe it's just time to give up on birding altogether. Anyone for Scrabble...?
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-- Where's Heisenberg When We Need Him --

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Geee, how 'bout we discuss the Luneau video for a change ; - ) ...

Mike Collins, re-analyzing the Luneau video, found himself critical of Cornell's interpretation of the first few frames (bird behind the tree trunk prior to take-off). A bit paradoxically he still believes the bird is an Ivory-bill based on the flight frames, but seems more in accord with the Sibley/Bevier et.al. interpretation of the initial few frames (if I understand him right). See his Aug. 9/10 entries here:

http://www.fishcrow.com/winter07.html

I believe his point about the geometry of the bird behind the trunk is interesting, but not conclusive, given that we simply can't know how the bird's body and feet are truly positioned for the split seconds captured. The Cornell interpretation would be difficult were the bird actually perched stationarily, but with it being in rapid motion, odd things can happen and the possibilities greatly widen. Still, it has always troubled me that the bird's head is never seen in that opening sequence as one might expect given the pose that Cornell argues for. In fact regardless of the bird's posture, it is odd that we don't see it's head peek around the tree trunk in typical woodpecker fashion just prior to fleeing approaching humans (or have we already missed the 'quick peek' by the time the video captures the tree?).

As I've contended before, without seeing that head or feet (nor do we know the topography of the backside of that trunk) there is no definitive way of knowing that the bird is actually even perching on the trunk and thus a woodpecker. This may appear the highest probability but is simply not a certainty. And, if it is a woodpecker, there remains no definitive choice between IBWO, normal Pileated, or leucistic PIWO, just a stream of ultimately subjective analysis/judgments being made and passed off as "conclusive," which they are NOT. In the end, the best the PIWO-proponents can say is that a PIWO-interpetation is possible, and Pileateds have higher probability. There is NO MORE certainty here than with the sighters' claims of certainty that they saw an Ivory-bill, and the skeptic's ad hoc dismissal of such (full of conjecture but devoid of solid evidence of lying or mistaken ID). Unfortunately, we aren't dealing with rocket science here, just birding and field biology, both of which lack precision.

When all is said and done, it won't make a speck of difference what the Luneau bird is in regards to the Ivory-bill's potential existence in the Appalachicola, or Atchafalaya, or Pearl, or the Pascagoula, or Escambia, or Congaree, or Suwannee, or Altamaha, or Yazoo, or Big Cypress, or Green Swamp, or...or...or... Even if we knew for certain there were no IBWOs in the Big Woods or the Choctawhatchee that concludes nothing about other locales.
The vast majority of woodland birds go unseen and the vast majority of habitat goes unbirded most of the time. The way to argue that the Ivory-bill is extinct is not to spend hours debating 4 seconds of videotape, but to wait for humans to search 100's of thousands of acres of potential habitat and come up empty-handed; that will take time and money, and cynics have only themselves to blame that it wasn't done 40-50 years ago when it would've required far less of each. Meanwhile, as it is now being done, sightings continue to trickle in.

Sometimes I think all field biologists (or really all scientists) should be forced to study some of the work of Cantor or Godel or Schrodinger or Heisenberg, to better understand how uncertainty underlies all science, logic, and reason. Detachment and open-mindedness are required to grasp much of that uncertainty. And we are well passed the point of detachment or open-mindedness in the Ivory-billed debate. The insistent certainty of some skeptics, upon matters they can't possibly be certain of, is astonishing, to the point that any small piece of evidence put forth is quickly savaged in some quarters before thorough review. This is to real science what the Taliban theocracy is to democracy. In the end, real and patient science will win out (for one side or the other), but how long that will take remains in question.

As to the frequent concern voiced over other conservation projects being hurt by money going to IBWO searches, a simple suggestion: by far the single greatest peril to conservation on this planet is human population and longevity. I suggest those so very deeply concerned with this matter pledge to never have more than two children and agree to be euthanized by the age of 55. If everyone would do such it would (literally) do more for long-term conservation than all the piecemeal projects funded by Congress (...any takers?). Or alternatively, we can simply slash the billions spent on medical research and treatment to prolong human lives and move those dollars to conservation purposes... but only if you're serious.

And to end on a cheerful(???), forward-looking note, at some point we'll have the Auburn video to debate tirelessly 8 - ((( ... and soon --- prepare to celebrate!!! --- Karl Rove will be out of the White House (and possibly on the road in key states rigging more voting machines... but hey, I'm not certain about that).
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-- AOU IBWO Summary --

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Chuck Hagner from Birders' World Mag. summarizes the Auburn presentation at AOU (sightings, sounds, blurry video) on Saturday here:

http://bwfov.typepad.com/birders_world_field_of_vi/2007/08/ivory-bills-in-.html

It will no doubt lead to more of the identical repetitive redundant (did I say repetitive) internet discussion that has floated around for the last 2 years --- it's all been said/argued before. Skeptics have set the bar at a clearcut photo or video (or carcass), so that is what we must continue to wait for.
Apparently, the old Auburn video will finally be posted on the Web soon, but not expected to unmuddy the waters anymore than the Luneau version did. It is possible that even at this point we are still nearer the starting gate of the search for Ivory-bills than we are near the finish line.

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-- AOU Meeting --

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The American Ornithological Union's annual meeting opens in Laramie, Wyoming Wednesday, where Dr. Geoff Hill's group will present their latest evidence/analysis from Florida's Choctawhatchee area; at least a couple of possible sightings from the last season, further acoustic evidence, and the fuzzy video that was taken over a year ago (but never released) of a possible Ivory-bill will all be presented. Wouldn't expect any minds to change, and I'm not aware of Cornell even making any IBWO-related presentations this year. Nor likely that much significant Ivory-bill-related news will pop during the next couple months, of hot/humid summer (though automatic cameras continue to be monitored).
So again we're in a long wait for the winter search season to begin (and for the release of written summaries of the prior season). And again, we have possible sounds, cavities, foraging sign, and sightings that stretch across 50+ years, and lack only an agreed-upon photo, yet some wish to close the door on this story, just as it was closed in 1900, 1920, and the 1930's before Cornell documented the birds that non-birders had known were there all along. As for those who argue that money is being wasted I suspect someone could argue the same for a significant percentage of the presentations that will be given at the AOU, if so inclined (...former Sen.William Proxmire might have a field day if he saw the titles of some of those 'scientific' papers --- justifiable expenditures are often in the eye of the beholder).
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-- Quirky Blog --

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A slightly quirky Ivory-bill post from a slightly quirky website called "The Speculist" I was previously unfamiliar with, here:

http://www.blog.speculist.com/archives/001441.html

If you're into quirky things might want to check out some of his other posts (from a La. lawyer named Stephen Gordon and 2 others). And his right-hand blogroll here also looks strangely intriguing as well! --- although I haven't yet had a chance to check out many of the sites.

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-- Frustration Builds --

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A birder clearly frustrated with the status quo wrote this herein-edited post pertaining to the IBWO-search on the Carolinabirds listserv recently:

"...The fundamental problem is that people are pussyfooting around the problem.
The "professionals" need to set up nets at the sites where the birds are, and watch them as you watch the Kirtland Warbler nets, or better. BE there to extract the bird. All we need is probably one feather.
I do wonder why people are not vacuuming the supposed (larger diameter) IBWO nest cavities.
But, the "ornithologists" are not getting the job done. Maybe it was a Mission Impossible....
Either: do what it takes and find or not find evidence. Or: stop looking for IBWO and do something at which you are competent. Again, this is getting to be like the Yeti or some conspiracy theory. The dog ate my homework. Then the cat. Then some other excuse.

If the IBWO has survived 70 years unseen and today is in Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas and Florida, then the population can take the chance of losing one bird as a net casualty. I have a feeling the chance of catching an IBWO is less than zero.
If one did net it and actually were present within 100 feet of the nets all the time the nets were on the poles, I think the chance of killing or injuring the bird is nil. The real problem will be getting injured by that bird, if one caught it. The nets need to be open at dawn and dusk. Maybe the professionals cannot be bothered to get up before dawn. Who knows?
I guess I am just frustrated by people giving us plausible descriptions of them seeing the bird, and no proof....

The so-called professionals aren't even listening to common sense. They are just playing games, building careers, empires, whatever. I am sure there are some people trying honestly.
But, I almost fell over in shock, a few months ago, when I was told that "That stuff there, about which you are inquiring when we will do it, was just written for Congress. We have no intention of doing what we wrote down as our intention." And that, my dears, is our Fish and Wildlife Service. I am still disappointed. Disillusioned.
At least I was told honestly what the attempted deception was. But that is too complex for me to accept as standard operating procedure. What I am saying is that there is something wrong with a society in which we institutionalize "whistle-blowing" because honesty is not ordinary."

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-- S. Carolinian Requests Assistance --

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South Carolinian Rip Lyttle is requesting assistance in his search for Ivory-bills in both South and North Carolina in this verbatim post from IBWO Researcher's Forum (see original post for contact information or go here):

"i have heard and recorded multiple double knocks and one clear kent call this summer in south carolina ( two locations ) and north carolina, lake waccamaw drainage.
my knocks have been evaluated by auburn/ windsor and cornell teams. geoff hill, dan mennill and brian rolek all like my double knocks recorded in sparkleberry swamp, and waccamaw drainage this may, july as likely ibwo. brian rolek has heard my kent call from 3rd location and writes its the same as their kent calls recorded in the panhandle.

i need to spend most of august, half of september, all of october in these 3 swamps trying to get video footage of the double knockers. i ask interested field researchers, kayakers to come to sc and help in this search with me if they wish. i have room in my trailer for short stays and have much extra camping gear, tents, etc. i have an extra kayak and inflatable canoe/ trolling mtr. i have a 15' jon boat with 20 hp motor. i have extra cameras, vid & audio recorders. i need competent stalkers, kayakers and birders to press the search more efficiently in deeper swamps in these key areas to catch the bird with cameras.

i propose 3-4 day camping trips with recovery days at trailer in conway, sc, and back out again camping ( kayaking and boating too) doing multi-day searches. any times you can visit, help search would be helpful, appreciated.

lets get that clear video, folks!
rip lyttle in conway, sc."

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-- Another Film --

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Apparently there's yet another Ivorybill-inspired film in-the-making, this one from independent film-maker Alex Karpovsky. Unlike other offerings on the subject which are more strictly documentary in nature this one is fictionalized and described as, "Exploring the twilight of uncertainty between narrative and documentary styles, all truth becomes subjective in this existential comedy about a troubled man desperately searching for an elusive bird, that may, or may not, be real." Ahh yes, more existentialism entering the IBWO debate; Camus would be proud!
I do like the title of the film though, "General Impression of Size and Shape," which pulls the emphasis back to where it should be, on whether or not experienced birders can accurately ID Ivory-bills based on GISS, rather than an emphasis on pixelated field marks.
Homepage for the film is here, but so far not too heavily filled in.

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-- Harrison Speaking --

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IBWO searcher Bobby Harrison speaks tomorrow (Friday) at noon at the Smithsonian in Washington D.C. on the Ivory-bill saga. Smithsonian notice is here (July 27 entry):

http://www.mnh.si.edu/cal_events.html

... and come evening, you can go see The Simpsons Movie!

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-- Not Much Happenin' --

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Cornell's John Fitzpatrick will speak at a New Hampshire Science Center this coming Saturday on the ongoing search for Ivory-bills:

http://www.citizen.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070720/CITIZEN_01/107200347/-1/CITIZEN

Fitzpatrick will be introduced by filmmaker George Butler whose 90-minute documentary "The Lord God Bird" is due for release in mid-September, having already been shown in pre-finished form at some independent film festivals. One suspects, even this, may not be the final final version.


On a sidenote, here's an online map of birding 'hotspots' for South Carolina (quite handy):

http://www.carolinabirdclub.org/sites/SC/
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-- BP Weighing In... Again --

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Regular readers know that I'm just ever-so-slightly itsy-bitsy weary of commentary/analysis of the Luneau video, which thus far has proven nothing, except to demonstrate the ambiguity and subjective nature of 4 fuzzy video seconds (much like the ambiguity and subjective nature of so many "facts" in this debate). While we await whatever Cornell may have to say about Bevier's and Collinson's efforts to make the filmed bird into a Pileated, Bill Pulliam has yet-again posted more counter-thoughts on the subject at his blog:

http://bbill.blogspot.com/2007/07/once-again.html

....and 'round-and-'round it goes.

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-- 3-year Anniversary --

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This blog enters its third year of posting believing in the Ivory-bill's survival, despite declining confidence that it may be documented to everyone's satisfaction; especially if the numbers remaining are truly small and thinly spread out --- on the positive side, Whooping Cranes were brought back from barely more than a dozen birds, though it's doubtful any similar recovery program for IBWOs could ultimately succeed. Still, the goal must be to prove the bird's current existence, not necessarily to save it as a species, but to prove it's existence through the 50's, 60's, and 70's, when appropriate actions might indeed have been fruitful. The Ivory-bill needs to be documented, not to show the success of science, but rather to demonstrate science's utter failure in this instance, in the hope that maybe such failures can be avoided in the future. If photo/video documentation finally now arrives, much hoopla will follow, given how matters have unfolded --- but that joy should be tempered with equally matching dismay and regret at the 60 years of delay and benign neglect, that any such documentation will represent.

By the way, three Ivory-billed related talks are listed for next month's AOU meeting in Wyoming, as follows:

1) "Further evidence suggesting that Ivory-billed Woodpeckers exist in Florida" GEOFFREY
E. HILL, Dept. Biol. Sci., Auburn Univ., Auburn, AL, DANIEL J. MENNILL, Dept. Biol.,
Univ. Windsor, Windsor, ON, BRIAN R. ROLEK, RUSTY LIGON, JAMES R. HILL, III,
Auburn Univ., KYLE A. SWISTON, KARAN ODOM, Univ. Windsor, and TYLER L.
HICKS, Western State Coll., Gunnison, CO.

2) "A comparison of large woodpecker cavity morphology in the Choctawhatchee River
bottomlands and other southern forests" BRIAN W ROLEK, RUSSELL LIGON,
GEOFFREY HILL, Dept. Biol., Auburn Univ., Auburn, AL, and DANIEL J. MENNILL,
Dept. Biol. Univ. Windsor, Windsor, ON.

3) "Design and implementation of a region-wide search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker with
the objective of estimating occupancy and related parameters" ROBERT J. COOPER,
RUA S. MORDECAI, Univ. Georgia, Athens, GA, MICHAEL J. CONROY, JAMES T.
PETERSON, USGS Georgia Coop. Fish & Wildl. Res. Unit and Univ. Georgia, CLINTON
T. MOORE, Patuxent Wildl. Res. Center, Univ. Georgia, and BRADY J. MATTSSON,
Univ. Georgia.

Meanwhile, Mike Collins has announced his return to Virginia after a long season in the Pearl (La.), with no IBWO photos to show for it, but testing out a new tree climbing/stationing technique for observing the forest from above; to be continued later in year.
.........................................................................................................

Elsewhere from the Web:

If you're not already familiar with it learn more about the "Swift Night Out" program for studying the migration of fascinating Chimney Swifts to and from the U.S. each year:

http://www.concentric.net/%7edwa/page56.html

Better yet, find a chimney in your area that is used by swifts and take part in the annual survey by monitoring it on one of the assigned evenings.
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-- Mobile Team Note --

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Another brief summary of efforts of Cornell's Mobile IBWO Search Team here:

http://audubonmagazine.org/fieldnotes/fieldnotes0707-webexclusives.html

Martjan Lammertink remains "cautiously optimistic" but won't be part of the field team next season, opting instead to spend his time re-assessing all the data collected so far. There will be a team however, and it will resume exploring in December; no hint here where, besides the Congaree, efforts will be concentrated (it likely hasn't even been determined yet). In spite of cynics' efforts to derail it, the scientific process marches forward.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Long Hot Summer --

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Nothing too newsy Ivorybill-wise, so to hold you over, this report on another secretive forest bird with an ivory beak :

http://www.birdlife.org/news/news/2007/07/malaysia_wreathed_hornbill.html


...and here's a dash of info on the Green Swamp area of North Carolina, where some independent searchers are looking for IBWOs (and near where Alexander Wilson had his famous Ivory-billed encounter 200 years ago).
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