Sunday, February 18, 2007

-- Listers Beware! --

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I've long believed the concept of "species," especially as it relates to birds, is far more arbitrary than most acknowledge. The ramifications of this fascinating article go far beyond the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (which has now been DNA-barcoded), detailing how molecular/genetic studies are both expanding bird species count (finding "cryptic species" within birds that look physically the same) and also lumping together birds previously thought to be distinctly different species. Some day the constant (virtually silly) AOU bickering over such matters will be put to rest by the newer techniques (although the molecular approach itself will have its own ambiguities).

And on a different note, a local TV story about the IBWO search in the the Big Thicket area of Texas here.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, February 17, 2007

-- Interesting --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well now, this is interesting... more high technology at work in the search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker: two high-tech robotic cameras have been installed in the Big Woods area of AR. specially programmed to scan the skies and snap pictures of overflying birds that might meet the characteristics of an Ivory-bill; hard disks are removed regularly (by D. Luneau) and results analyzed by birders. Sounds a bit far-fetched at first, but apparently has met the serious muster of those involved, as yet another jointly-based techie tool in the ongoing endeavor.
A couple of articles relating the story are here:

http://www.physorg.com/news90942222.html

http://news.mongabay.com/2007/0217-ibw.html


....a-a-a-and fierce, unbridled septicism (and unabated mirthmaking) continues to emanate from here.
(where, for those who have followed the internet IBWO debate from the get-go (and know the many Web players and arguments), the 'comments' sections are virtually funnier than the posts.)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, February 15, 2007

-- Another Article --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr. Hill seems a tad late with an update out of the Choctawhatchee... no doubt, busy, processing some film or something : - ) ... No, no, seriously, while we bide time, decent overview article out of Oregon of all places here:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/science/20070215-9999-lz1c15knockin.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- IBWO Foundation --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Haven't seen much new information on the Ivory-billed Woodpecker Foundation whose inaugural gala is little more than a week away in Huntsville, AL., but their mission statement is here on the BirdingAmerica website.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, February 12, 2007

-- Keep 'em Comin' --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well, the Ivory-bill blogs just keep on comin', and I must say this one looks pretty promising : - ):

http://ivorybilledseptic.blogspot.com/index.html

This Gnarls Pagan fellow sounds like someone I could sip some Beaujolais with.

hmmm... let's see, is Pete Dunne behind this (he never stops writing), or does someone on Team Nokuse have way too much time on their hands????
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Hill's Book Forthcoming --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One of the latest auditory "kent" encounters at the Choctawhatchee is now up on Dr. Mennill's site for listening, here. Like a lot of the acoustic data, interesting, but not altogether meaningful by itself without full spectrographic analysis. The paucity of previous IBWO recordings for comparison makes any definitive conclusions unlikely; but another datapoint for followup.

For believers and agnostics, Geoffrey Hill's book on the Auburn Ivory-bill find/search is due out in a week or so. Look for it in your local bookstore or on Amazon
here (see below). I s'pose many of the skeptics won't have any interest since they've already made up their minds, based on a pittance of science and a whole lot of armchair speculation, that the Ivory-billed Woodpecker is not only extinct, but has been since the 1940's (all for lack of a photograph). In the meanwhile, the first multiple and serious searches of some of the areas of interest have barely begun, and not all information is public, but that never keeps some cynics from speaking with certitude, as the rush, rush, rush to judgment continues.

"Ivorybill Hunters: Search for Proof in a Flooded Wilderness Forest" by Dr. Geoffrey Hill.
Table of Contents:
Chapter 1: Gone but not forgotten
Chapter 2: A most improbable discovery
Chapter 3: From possible to certain
Chapter 4 : My Quandary
Chapter 5: Is it a miracle?
Chapter 6: The Boynton Cutoff
Chapter 7: Hunting ivorybills in the backyard
Chapter 8: Let the search begin
Chapter 9: Good science, bad science, or no science at all?
Chapter 10: Tangible evidence
Chapter 11: The mule: hauling out the audio evidence
Chapter 12: Voices in the wilderness
Chapter 13: Cat out of the Bag
Chapter 14: Return of the Lord God Bird
Epilogue: How to be an ivorybill hunter

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, February 11, 2007

-- Cornell Team at the Pearl --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mike Collins reports that Cornell's mobile search team is now in the Pearl River area, having concluded their sojourn at the Choctawhatchee. It sounds as though they may have entirely bypassed the Escambia River region of the western FL. Panhandle which would be a bit disappointing if so. (For that matter disappointing they did not explore any more southerly FL. areas, unless the plan is to do so on a return trip later.) I s'pose they may update their log tomorrow or Tues. with further thoughts on their last 10 days or so.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, February 08, 2007

-- Occam's Razor --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oftentimes, people invoke "Occam's Razor" (or 'the law of parsimony') in discussing Ivory-bill evidence. Occam's Razor is essentially the idea that, in science, given a choice of multiple explanations one ought to opt for the simplest of the choices. Of course if 'simplicity' had anything to do with it none of us would be here reading or writing on the internet today; we'd all still be unicellular organisms pleasantly floating around in a vast roiling sea. In actuality, as many scientists have noted, the world is brim-full of complexity.

But putting all that aside, which is the 'simpler' explanation for all the reported sightings of Ivory-bills over the years, and recordings that seem to match up acoustically to the only IBWO calls on record:

1. Is it that each-and-every single one of these sightings over time by different people in different places, at different times, under different circumstances, is either a case of mistaken identity or outright fraud or insanity, and that every single auditory encounter is likewise explainable by some other possible surmised sound?

OR, is not the simplest explanation, by far, that,

2. Ivory-bills live...

AGAIN (...and again and again and again and AGAIN), the only reason skeptics find the 2nd explanation NON-simple is because they begin with a presumption of Ivory-bill extinction for which solid evidence does not exist (you can't assume something extinct that hasn't even been looked for adequately; you can assume it rare, scarce, uncommon, unusual, endangered, if you like, BUT NOT extinct). Even Tanner with all his supposed expertise could never find the Ivory-bills which he believed existed in South Carolina and Florida (he only 'found' the ones a guide led him to in La.). Why are his successors presumed to be so much more skilled than he was...

We all learned Euclidean geometry in school. But, as many of you know, in NON-Euclidean geometry they alter just one of Euclid's initial axioms (presumptions), and end up with a hugely different geometry which physicists tell us actually more closely represents the reality of the universe and curved space. Still, kids are taught the Euclidean form because it is common-sensical and a close enough approximation for day-to-day use, even if WRONG overall!
Change the presumptions, and you change the conclusions/ deductions... and Occam really has little to do with it.

By the way, a reader sends in this link to a story of rare vultures and other endangered species suddenly being discovered in Cambodia (gosh, how many times each year does this happen?) --- or maybe Occam would see it as more likely a case of spontaneous regeneration.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

-- Fact Check --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Opinions (that have NEVER been independently verified or authenticated):

Ivory-bills went extinct in the United States in the 1940s...
Ivory-bills require large tracts of virgin forest for survival...
There were less than 3 dozen Ivory-bills left in America when James Tanner did his study...
Ivory-bills require a large supply of wood-boring beetle larvae to survive...
There have been no photographs of a living (U.S.) Ivory-bill taken in the last 60 years...
The Luneau video shows a ___________________ (fill in whatever bird you want)...

And one can invent all the alternative explanations for sightings, sounds, reports, claims, etc. that one wishes --- still none of those explanations rise above the level of opinion and speculation.


FACTS:

Ivory-bills can fly.
Ivory-bills are suited for living in swamps, and in areas that humans don't frequent.
Ivory-bills spend time out-of-sight in woodland tree canopies.
Ivory-bills spend time inside tree cavities.
Ivory-bills have been reported 100's of times since the 1940's, including credible reports from credible observers, as well as reports whose credibility can't be easily adjudged one way or the other.
"Extraordinary" is a relative and highly subjective term, not a scientific term.
A large-scale, thorough search of all habitat that Ivory-bills might live in has never been carried out.
Humans are neither all-knowing nor infallible in their judgments.
Throughout the last century birds (and other creatures) believed extinct have been re-discovered.
It is unlikely that anyone will ever know when or where the last Ivory-billed Woodpecker in existence dies.
If there is 1 living Ivory-bill left than the species is NOT extinct... and, never has been.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, February 05, 2007

-- Need a Job ? --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short notice, but Geoff Hill says he needs another birder for the Choctawhatchee search. The request reads as follows in his latest update(Feb 5), which also includes his contact information if genuinely interested and available:
"We have immediate need for a full-time searcher. Please contact me (Dr. Geoff Hill) ASAP stating birding experience, outdoor experience, and skill in a canoe or kayak. Also send names and contact numbers for two references. Searchers work on an eight-day rotation--six days living in a tent in the swamp and two days out. Pay is $1200/mo, no benefits, and the position is scheduled to last until May 31, 2007."
Obviously, no guarantees, but this could be the part-time job of a lifetime for any birder.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, February 03, 2007

-- Of Extinction and Ether --


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ornithological McCarthyism continues to spill forth from some internet quarters, piling speculation upon unfounded speculation to discount IBWO evidence, and confusing mere alternative explanations for science. Tsk, tsk. By all appearances one 'skeptical' blogger (actually, he gives 'skepticism' a bad name) seems to be little more than a tool of right-wing ideologue interests and the Exxon P.R. Dept. (kinda like a certain dim-witted President we know of). Many skeptics/scoffers have painted themselves into corners of no escape by now, and so keep plowing forward, all-the-while wearing blinders (gee, again kinda like a certain prevaricating Vice-President). If an IBWO photo arrives the squirming should be fascinating to watch (...sort of like the squirming in the White House for outing a CIA operative while preaching patriotism, cough, cough).

The shaky belief in IBWO extinction is a bit reminiscent of the 100+ years of physicists' belief in "ether" as a permeating medium throughout the universe, used to account for various effects. They fit each new piece of knowledge or experimental finding to the pre-conceived notion of ether as long as they could, until finally in the early 20th century Einstein deduced once-and-for-all there simply was no ether. Never had been. Even in physics (far more rigorous than biology) pre-conceived suppositions are dangerously ensnaring entities. So too, this century, may the ethereal notion of Ivory-bill extinction plummet to the pseudoscientific graveyard, despite the efforts of those who must now be wishing it to be true.

On a very sad side-note: tornadoes that swept through central Florida Friday not only devastated many human lives, but also killed 18 young endangered Whooping Cranes in a safety enclosure, that had been led down to Fla. from Wisconsin. The storms probably did not affect the Florida areas harboring greatest IBWO potential, although the Suwannee area is not too far away.
Addendum: one of the 18 Whoopers was finally found alive some distance away (tracked by a radio transmitter it was wearing); not much consolation, but at least a piece of good news under the circumstances.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, February 01, 2007

-- Of Watched Pots and Ivory-bills --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
'A watched pot never boils,' we are told, and there has rarely been a more watched pot than the search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. Although news items continue to trickle forth they are mostly more of the same, or slight elaborations of previously-reported information --- still, people pounce on every new tidbit. My fear is that this 'watched pot' effect only lends a sense to many (skeptics primarily) that nothing much is happening and all is a waste of time. In fact, the serious search for this bird and for its photograph is FINALLY underway after 60 years of little coordinated effort. The 'patience' I've urged for 4 decades has never been more pertinent. We live in a world of instant-this and instant-that, but that's not how good science works.

I'm not sure yet, but to lessen this 'watched pot' sense, that makes time seem to drag on, I may lay back a tad from blogging the next couple of weeks (2-3 posts/wk. rather than 5-6), and just let the searchers do their work. February could be a very crucial month (but that's been true of the past Februarys as well). So if I go post-less more days than usual don't assume it means nothing is happening... NOR that it means something UNreportable is happening --- just means I'm practicing the patience I've preached. Folks can still use the links on my blog if they wish to search out any news items appearing. We'll just see what developments are forthcoming.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday, January 31, 2007

-- More From Dr. Hill --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr. Hill's latest Auburn update recounts the ongoing deployment of remote cameras for their project, and explains the reasons they are using time-lapse cameras (which will generate a lot of data to sift through, essentially snapping a picture every 12 seconds during daylight hrs.) rather than motion-activated cameras as have been used in the Big Woods (AR.) --- apparently there is still room for debate over the advantages/disadvanatges of different camera set-ups. David Luneau will have an article addressing this topic in the forthcoming Mar/Apr edition of Birding Magazine.
If Dr. Hill's group is successful at photographically documenting the Ivory-bill, several of the techniques they are devising or refining may prove useful in future research endeavors with other species.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, January 28, 2007

-- No News Is OK News --



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Since Dr. Hill's last update Ivory-bill news has been unusually slow (not much new on the Web nor in my emails). Of course we all know that can only mean 1 of 2 things: either there is nothing much newsworthy happening in the field... OR... there is SOMEthing noteworthy happening in the field : - )

In the meantime, to hold you over, here are a couple of weekend posts from "Erik Hendrickson" on the Ivory-bill Researchers' Forum in which he talks about a sighting he claims in Dec. 2005 in the Cache River area (AR.):

http://www.ibwo.net/forum/showpost.php?p=918&postcount=33

http://www.ibwo.net/forum/showpost.php?p=922&postcount=36


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, January 26, 2007

-- Biding Time --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just a couple of crass commercial sidebars
while awaiting for any solid news to come along:

Current Ivory-billed Woodpecker items for sale on eBay are here.

...and, in deference to some acquaintances involved with Scienceblogs.com (interesting site, something for EVERYbody) I'll put in a plug for the "The Open Laboratory," the first annual anthology of outstanding science blog posts, just out (likely of interest to some of you, but nothing specifically to do with Ivory-bills):

Read about it here (I have no financial interest in it):

http://tailrank.com/1093958/The-Open-Laboratory

or order it from here.

....just maybe next year's edition will include a post on Campephilus principalis!

By now Cornell's 4-man mobile search team should be on board with Dr. Hill's group at the Choctawhatchee, assisting there for a couple of weeks, after being very impressed with parts of the Apalachicola region to the east. Keep in mind that their general mission is to evaluate areas for Ivory-bill potential and later make recommendations for places most needing further study (of course they could always cross paths with IBWOs in the process).

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, January 25, 2007

-- Dr. Mennill Explains Further --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here, Dr. Mennill of the Auburn team further explains how they manage to achieve 24-hr. turnaround time on the analysis of bioacoustic data from the Choctawhatchee search site:

http://web2.uwindsor.ca/courses/biology/dmennill/IBWO/IBWO07News.html

In the end, these techniques just may prove crucial to attaining the desired photographic evidence... or not!?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- On and On It Goes --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here is David Luneau's latest addition to his website (...just to keep 'rumor' fans with something to chew on : - ):
"Remote camera work is proceeding --- nothing exciting to report (yet). It keeps me too busy to keep this site updated as often as I would like to. I'll try to get some new pictures up soon."
Remote cameras (if enough of them are deployed) certainly represent possibly the single best source for an Ivory-bill photo. For the last 48 hrs. I've tried to track the photo rumors coming out of the Fla. Panhandle, but have found nothing substantive in that regard (lot of verbiage!). Possibly, a purported photo got turned in (as has happened repeatedly since Cornell's announcement), that is inconclusive. As for a definitive photo(s) I'm doubtful, but someone out there knows the truth, whatever it be. Or, maybe David will have some interesting "new pictures" up shortly... ; - )

And in other matters, Julie Zickefoose meets with Jerry Jackson here:

http://www.juliezickefoose.com/blog/2007/01/down-to-naples.html


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

-- Rumors, Schmoomers --

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just a little housecleaning on all the rumors business:

Back when the Tyler Hicks' sighting news broke it arrived at my computer early in the morning but 10 mins. after I had left for work. I arrived back home around 4 pm. to the news, and to a string of emails asking me why I wasn't covering the story. I'm trying to avoid that situation happening again. So...

In directing folks to monitor Dr. Hill's or any other website, it is my way of saying I expect to be away from the Net a lot, and in the event certain news should break, folks ought to monitor this-or-that-site (rather than mine).
In the latest instance, the Auburn folks are denying any photographic evidence as had been rumored, and Dr. Hill makes no mention of it in his latest post (although the rumor still has some legs). On a semantic note, whenever I refer to something as a "rumor" it is specifically because I can't find enough details, substantiation, or credibility to call it anything else. If I find (through multiple sources) some substance and credibility in it (raising it above rumor) I usually call it "information," such as 'information from a credible source', or 'information from someone close to the scene', or the like. In short, rumors are interesting, but not to be taken too seriously 'til they get to a higher level. It's a tough call between acknowledging certain rumors even cautiously, as a heads-up, on a blog (in the event they develop further), or ignoring them, knowing how they take on a life of their own once unleashed on the Web, which doesn't help matters... And the next few weeks/months could be a field day for rumors.

oooooh, gotta go, the State of the Union Address coming up... this oughta be good... for Letterman, Leno, Jon Stewart, Colbert....
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------