-- New Mennill Pages --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr. Geoff Hill's collaborator, Dr. Dan Mennill, has started new updates covering his part (bioacoustics) of the Choctawhatchee search here:

http://web2.uwindsor.ca/courses/biology/dmennill/IBWO/IBWO07News.html

and Homepage here:

http://web2.uwindsor.ca/courses/biology/dmennill/IBWO/IBWOindex.php

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- And This... --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just a bit of a diversion (because sometimes a bird story just tugs at me) :

Many of you have heard the recent stories in the U.S. of sudden bird deaths, but you may have missed this far more massive story from Australia of birds falling out of the sky --- a couple of the many possible internet links to the story here:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21036489-30417,00.html

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory?id=2789942

For the moment, I would call this an extraordinary event, although a simple (even if disturbing) explanation is likely to come along. Most "extraordinary" events have quite simple explanations, once understood. If the IBWO is confirmed some will call it extraordinary, but 10 years from now when all the data and evidence has been reviewed, in Schopenhauer's words, it will appear "self-evident" that the species was there all along, and folks will wonder aloud, 'WHAT in the world were those skeptics thinking?'.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Covering Old Ground --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All riiight!, today 3 rants for the price of 1! -- this is all stuff I've covered at some point before, but since the blog is always getting new readers, and these issues come up around the Web, we'll touch on 'em yet again:


-- "Extraordinary" --

If someone says that they spotted an Ivory-billed Woodpecker in Brooklyn, NY., hey, I'd call THAT an extraordinary claim, or if they said they had one at their backyard feeder in Miami, Florida, or saw a flock of 25 Ivory-bills while hunting in the woods outside Brinkley, AR., or had one land on their shoulder anywhere --- all of those would be "extraordinary" claims. However, claiming to see an Ivory-billed Woodpecker every now and then (a bird known to hang out in dense canopies and tree cavities in remote woods) briefly, in perfectly suitable habitat, that is not frequented by birders much, IS BY NO MEANS an "extraordinary" claim --- interesting, unusual, odd, maybe even improbable, but NO, not "extraordinary." Semantically, it's a sheer and frequent misuse of the term for mere sophistry. However, claiming that a creature is extinct, when 100's of reports of it have been turned in, and all it's potential habitat has never even been thoroughly searched... well now THAT'S an extraordinary claim!!

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- "Proof" --

A couple days back in a "comment" David Martin talked of how tired he was of hearing the inappropriate word "proof" thrown around in the IBWO debate. AMEN!!! Technically, there IS NO PROOF in science. Even in math all 'proofs' are dependent upon UNprovable assumptions. In science, there are assumptions and evidence, and conclusions based upon perceived probabilities, but whether or not Ivory-bills (or James Tanner, or the planet Earth) have ever existed, let alone do today, can NEVER be PROVEN (there are ALWAYS possible alternative explanations); in the end, we make ultimately subjective judgments of the evidence that lead us to overriding probabilities. For many this seems picayunish word-play, semantic mumbo-jumbo, but it is quite crucial, to get us past this point of continually raised bars of evidence, or evidence that is "definitive," or for that matter evidence that is always viewed from the pre-disposing and circular presumption of Ivory-bill extinction. In some arenas, skeptics are more involved in witch-hunts at this point than they are in any sort of open-minded science, but so be it; they can NEVER "prove" their case, and believers still only need one bird to make their case convincing. Thus, this intense interest in the Ivory-bill is not merely an obsession with a magnificent creature, but is a far broader story of the huge weaknesses of ornithological 'science' --- in fact one thing I and skeptics no doubt agree on is that the Ivory-bill debate is chock-full of poorly-thought-through science; we just disagree on which side has the greater share of it.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-- Benign Neglect --

Edmund Burke famously said that "all that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good people to do nothing." In the case of the Ivory-bill it could be altered to read "all that is necessary for the extinction of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker is for birders, conservationists, and ornithologists to do nothing." This species survived the loggers, hunters, collectors of its day, but what it can't survive is inaction and benign neglect from the one group of people who ought to be interested in saving it. Harsh cynicism and skepticism aren't mere attitudes, they have effect on the behavior (or stifled behavior) of others. To the many who are arduously working to find and aid this bird, in whatever capacity they are able (and you know who you are), THANK YOU, THANK YOU, truly THANK YOU, even though your efforts may come 30 years too late for any successful recovery program. But to the hardcore unrelenting naysayers, cynics, and non-believers (and you know who you are too; I'm not talking about agnostics and fence-sitters here), forever sniping at searchers and evidence and hypotheses, offering only snideness, obstructionism, and concocted alternative explanations, in place of encouragement or productive discourse, or even a wait-and-see attitude, the extinction of this species will be on your hands when/if it comes to pass (deny it all you wish, but yes it will). YOU delayed and frustrated and forestalled the actions that were needed. You abandoned the birds prematurely and asked others to do the same. Moreover, YOU have now created the circus atmosphere that will overtake any discovery of the species. And I'm bored of hearing all that armchair scoffing/sniping followed with, "like everyone else, we'll rejoice if the species IS found" --- it rings pretty hollow (I think it's called CYA). Since when do people "rejoice" at having ignorance/naivete hung out to dry like so much dirty laundry? Or having foolishness magnified for all to see? This tawdry, strung-out episode in failed American ornithology is so shameful I'm not sure myself, at this point, how much rejoicing such a discovery will deserve. But if the photo comes and the party follows, of course I'll be delighted for those who did something positive along the way, had true patience and determination, kept the faith, moved things along, stayed focussed on the science of it all, did the difficult hands-on fieldwork, and realized the importance of the effort being made. In that event, I hope the select mocking cynics that I'm addressing, will puhhh-leeeze stay home, where you can further twiddle your thumbs, and don't weasel your way into a party you had no role in planning --- from your past behavior I'd have to question both your sincerity and motives... and, I do.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Mobile Search Team Continues --

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New posts from Cornell's mobile search team, who have left the Congaree and are now in Florida's Apalachicola region, to be followed by a sojourn with Geoff Hill's group along the Choctawhatchee (hmmm....is that a drumroll I hear in the background?):

http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory/current0607/MSTtravellog/document_view

Nothing new or startling, but definitely worth a read.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- New Blog --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A Birdforum poster notes a new Ivory-bill blog by one of the on-site Choctawhatchee searchers here:

http://featheredghosts.blogspot.com/

Brand new, but so far, fun, upbeat material...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Texas Update --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I've had my green tea now, and feeling a tad mellower ; - )

A reader sends in this link to an update on the Texas search:

http://www.gcbo.org/html/ivorybillchronicles5.pdf

As stated previously I'm not as hopeful about either TX. or S.C. (for IBWO presence) as some people are, but it's definitely good to know that such potential areas are getting a serious look-see as part of the overall search plan.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Goood Moooorning, Viet Nam!!! --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Some things, of course, are more important than the Ivory-billed Woodpecker, including, my country ('tis of thee)... today, a serious non-IBWO-related post:

Yada, yada, yada... Behold, looking like a deer in headlights, Bush has spoken --- if you pay close attention you can sometimes discern exactly when he is lying to the populace ('Don Rumsfield will stay on the job 'til the end of this Administration') by watching and noting carefully those precise moments when... his lips are moving. The oil-addicted Pretender-and-Chief, waterboy for Dick Cheney, seeks 22,000 additional troops for civil-war-torn Iraq --- oooh, oooooh!, I'll bet those insurgents are just shaking in their boots, now. Not so much new strategy, as new travesty; 4 years later, more of the same. Maaaaaybe 75,000+ additional troops could do the job Bush claims he wants done. But this is another Viet Nam style blip; more young men and women treated like so much paper towel to be wadded up and flicked into the fire; fodder for an enemy more skilled in guerrilla warfare, IEDs, and rope-a-doping America, than we are skilled at conventional warfare. The President, long aloof to the strata of society these sons and daughters are primarily drawn from, has hitched himself tautly to his own blind ego; not so much the Great Decider as the Great Delusionist. We, and our troops, deserve better.

We entered this war, as you recall, with the illustrious strategy of "shock and awe" --- a bombastic sham that, yes, would have scared the s__t out of OUR populace and OUR troops, but was little more than a cruel joke and lightshow for Iraqis jaded to war, terrorism, and brutality... it cost the taxpayer a pretty penny, like every day since, but the only one 'shocked and awed' was our own Defense Dept. at the sheer resiliency of the Iraqis. With further cultural/historical naivete and bravado, the Administration announced victory after Baghdad's fall, speaking (dreaming???) all-the-while of American occupiers uniformly greeted with flowers, chocolates, and kisses --- more armchair misjudgments and simplemindedness from nattering Neo-conservative nabobs who ironically lacked military experience among themselves or their offspring (in private industry they simply would've been fired, but, no, in this flunkie Administration they were rewarded and profitted handsomely --- expect Rumsfeld to receive the Presidential Medal (bribe) of Honor any month now).

...Now this lame(duck)-excuse-for-a-leader, surmises the Iraq answer is hidden in more troops. Deja vu all over again... Which part of Nam does he not quite remember? So the President, propped up on TV, addresses the American public as the herd of bleating sheep that Karl Rove informs him they are (...well, at least 51% of them). Some would like to know when Bush's "deep," "sincere" desire for democracy/freedom in the Mideast will translate into toppling that dictatorial regime in Saudi Arabia? (Oh, I forgot, if you lick our toes, you get a free pass.) Oligarchy, corporacracy, and puppet/muppet democracies are the forms of governance Bush respects. And though he won't say it out loud, everyone, including the insurgents, knows THERE IS a timetable to this war --- the 2008 American electoral races --- even with tampered election machines and hidden slush funds Republicans know they will suffer substantial losses at the voting booths if major progress in Iraq (and troop withdrawal) isn't made by then. If Bush is alive and in office in 2008 watch Republican candidates flee from him in Keystone Cops fashion.

As noted by others, our country has never before been so disrespected and distrusted by so many around the globe, including former staunch allies. Even George W. Sr. finds it alarming. In retrospect, and by comparison, our place in the world, as left behind by Bill Clinton, was idyllic.
No doubt Dick Cheney, irate over the dismissal of Donald Rumsfeld, will be looking to consolidate his power and influence over the next 14 months; the Negrapointe re-assignment may be the first sign of this shuffle. Meanwhile, Colin Powell has stepped tepidly away from the role of 'good soldier' and toward the role of good citizen, by speaking out a bit on what he knows of this Administration's modus operandi. He needs to say more... much more. The country/democracy he loves (at least as it once was), needs to hear from him.

There is NO good ending to the Iraq mess. We are a nation adrift, led by a ship of fools with narrow, sheltered, wealth-beholden interests; possibly the most deceitful, disreputable, preachy, unintelligent, untrustworthy, un-Christian, self-absorbed, money-grubbing, knuckle-dragging group of snake-oil salesmen and muckety-mucks ever to usurp and manipulate the presidency. May Thor help us!... as we try to escape the downward spiral toward worsening scenarios that careen our way, scrambling for the least bad ending of solely bad options. In 1966, J. William Fulbright published "The Arrogance of Power," and 40 years later his thesis is as fresh as ever. All hail the powers that be..., or,

Send letters, emails, faxes, phone calls... prayers, to anyone of influence (politicians, journalists, diplomats, the military, religious leaders...) who might carry some weight in determining our policy forward in Iraq, to fight Mr. Alfred E. Neuman's ill-begotten mad plans, as he prepares to stretch our already-impaired military even thinner leaving us further vulnerable at home and abroad. Maybe Mr. Bush's Machiavellian handlers can be shocked and awed into some common sense, by an outpouring/uproar of public opinion. The RESTORATION of America's place in the world will be disturbingly, painfully, excruciatingly, slow and grudging, but let it start NOW, and let it start with WE THE PEOPLE speaking up.


(...ohhh, and if you happen to disagree with this post, well then, n-n-n-n-n-nevermind.)

.... some additional reading:

http://www.commondreams.org/views07/0109-20.htm

http://www.commondreams.org/views07/0105-23.htm

http://www.commondreams.org/views07/0105-22.htm

http://www.commondreams.org/views07/0109-24.htm

http://www.commondreams.org/views07/0106-31.htm
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Briefly Noted --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For "Ivory-bill fans," a brief, pertinent note on bark scaling buried in Julie Zickefoose's blogpost today:

http://www.juliezickefoose.com/blog/2007/01/following-moss-muse.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Or Perhaps Not --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Perhaps we can dismiss the photographs that George Lowery presented to the ornithological community. Perhaps we can dismiss the sightings reported by Whitney Eastman. Perhaps we can dismiss the sightings by John Dennis. Perhaps we can explain away the Dennis' tape recordings that were analyzed by Hardy (1975). Maybe there is a miniscule chance that the recording made by Reynard (Reynard and Garrido 1989) isn't an Ivory-bill. Perhaps we can dismiss the response to tape recordings that were heard by Robert Manns, Malcolm Hodges, and myself or the birds heard by Fred Sibley and Ted Davis. But the list goes on and on --- right up to the present. If each of these observations has any probability at all of having been real, these probabilities add up. It is unlikely that all of these reports are misidentifications."

--- Jerome Jackson, reporting to US Fish & Wildlife in 1989 on the likelihood that the Ivory-bill was still extant

Perhaps John Terres, and Agey/Heinzmann, and Garratt, and Kulivan, and Gallagher/Harrison/Cornell, and Hill/Hicks/Rolek, and 100's of others, all got it wrong; each and every one of them.
....and perhaps, the moon is made of green cheese.

Cavities, sightings, 'sound detections,' update:

http://www.auburn.edu/academic/science_math/cosam/departments/
biology/faculty/webpages/hill/ivorybill/Updates.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Tanner Googled --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As many likely know Google has been in the process of putting entire books online to be freely accessed. About a third of James Tanner's wonderful monograph "The Ivory-billed Woodpecker" is now available (don't know if they'll be adding to that soon or not):

http://books.google.com/books?id=0A7QNfzjnXIC&dq

This is the recent Dover edition available in bookstores < $15 (or, if you prefer, you can always look for an original Tanner monograph to show up on eBay for $500+ ...)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- One Birder's Experiment --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One Michigan birder (and fence-sitting IBWO searcher) is conducting his own little field experiment in regards to attaining Ivory-bill documentation, substituting Pileateds as the subject; read about it here:

http://blog.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=blog.view&friendID=143309933&blogID=213915643

The habitat being searched is not nearly as large or difficult to access as IBWO habitat, but at least he's making an attempt at some quantification.

Addendum: if you wish to follow his updates, this individual's blog is now at:

http://www.myspace.com/goodbirds
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Coming In February --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bobby Harrison's "Ivory-billed Woodpecker Foundation" has announced its "inaugural fund-raising gala" to be held 6:00 pm. Feb. 24 (anniversary of the Sparling sighting) in Huntsville, Alabama (at the ADRS Banquet Facility, 3000 Johnson Rd.). Keynote speakers are Bobby and Tim Gallagher, with Lynn Scarlett (Deputy Sec. of the Interior), Dr. James Tate of the IBWO Recovery Committee, and Mary Scott of BirdingAmerica and IBWO fame, also presenting. Asking for RSVPs by Feb 12, ph. 256-883-1166, and tickets are $35. I imagine all this info will soon be at the Foundation's website:

http://www.ibwfound.org

Correction: the Feb. 24th date is actually closer to the anniversary of the Harrison/Gallagher IBWO sighting than the Sparling sighting which was a couple weeks earlier.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Books, Old & New --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One of those assisting the Auburn team along the Choctawhatchee this season is a veterinarian out of North Carolina, Dr. Gregory Lewbart. Dr. Lewbart wrote possibly the only novel ever centered around the Ivory-billed Woodpecker back in 1996, well before all the current hoopla, entitled "Ivory Hunters: A Novel of Extinction." The action-adventure story revolves, somewhat presciently, around the discovery of Ivory-bills in the Big Cypress woods area of southern Florida. You can find used copies here on Amazon (and probably through other used book venues on the Web as well).

Amazon also is taking pre-orders for Dr. Hill's forthcoming book, "Ivory-bill Hunters: The Search For Proof In a Flooded Wilderness," on the Auburn find here, though I would urge those who can wait, to purchase it at your local area bookstore when available (Feb/Mar. --- they need your business more than Amazon! the Lewbart book, on-the-other-hand, is probably out-of-print and only available through the Web or occasionally in used bookshops).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- 1/1/07 --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"If the world is to be healed through human efforts, I am convinced it will be by ordinary people; people whose love for this life is even greater than their fear. People who can open to the web of life that called us into being, and who can rest in the vitality of that larger body." -- Joanna Macy

"Here is the test to find whether your mission on earth is finished:
If you're alive, it isn't." -- Richard Bach

HAPPY 2007 ALL!! Carry on...

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Birder's World --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Decent article, by Geoffrey Hill, in the latest Birder's World Magazine on the Auburn Ivory-bill find is available online here:

http://www.birdersworld.com/brd/default.aspx?c=a&id=823

Dr. Hill sounds confident his folks will document the Ivory-bill photographically this season with the "biggest and best-funded Ivory-bill search" of 2007 (Cornell having scaled back in Arkansas) --- in which case he will no doubt soon be writing a revision of his upcoming book, "Ivory-bill Hunters: The Search for Proof in a Flooded Wilderness" (due out around Feb. from Oxford University Press).

--- you may need to register (free) for access to the article.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Truth Or Fiction --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Update on the J. Stevenson matter/article :

Responses I've received, often from folks more familiar with Stevenson than am I, run the full gamut of opinion --- half or more lean toward believing Jim's account (but this may only reflect the bias of my readership; the remainder split between those believing the story bogus and those who just aren't sure). There is much in Jim's phrasing and writing style that I too find odd, but can explain away if I focus on the more plausible elements of the account. HOWEVER, there remain several significant aspects (I won't detail here) I've not been able to resolve to my satisfaction, and despite his birding credentials there are major concerns over Jim's credibility in various circles, stemming from prior experiences both in Fla. and TX. Enough doubts linger that I can't presume the authenticity of the claims Jim makes, without corroboration from a 2nd individual.
The very difficulty in substantiating the story is in itself suspicious. This doesn't mean I think it is pure fabrication; it means I don't know what to think, or what could be the purpose in authoring pure fiction on such a divisive topic. I DON'T believe (as some have suggested) that it is intended as satire or humor in any form (though it's possible Jim could claim this in a future confession); nor do I happen to think it is a simple effort at self-aggrandizement as others surmise. And that leaves me with but a very few options for the possible motive, which I also won't detail here. I will however remind folks that Jim is currently embroiled in a legal battle over his shooting of a feral cat, thus making the timing of this story even odder... (why is it released NOW, not after the Kulivan sighting, not after the Cornell announcement, nor even immediately following the Auburn news release, but NOW?).

Jim's father, Henry, was a highly-respected past ornithologist who covered the Ivory-bill in Florida (and saw one in 1950). It is unfortunate that his son has published a piece (and even dragged his father's name into it) which carries such a cloud over it, and now is reluctant to discuss the topic further, despite knowing what a can of worms he is spilling. One would hope for Jim's sake the matter resolves itself in his favor, but I'm not at all confident it will (and if not, being indicted for cat-killing, will be among the least of Jim's infamy). It could take awhile for the truth to emerge, although words from "Phyllis Sandburg" (Sandberg?), or the "top ornithologist" who received Jim's purported feathers, or the museum currently housing said feathers, could pretty quickly resolve the matter (if these principals are still alive) --- I'm not holding my breath...

Luckily, Jim's column, pertaining to IBWOs in the 70's/80's, makes little difference in terms of the Ivory-bill's possible presence in the southeast in 2006-7, but on-the-other-hand, if an outright hoax, it unnecessarily plays into the hands of those who need not be given any further ammo. If more evidence arrives that pushes my opinion in one direction or the other I'll update at that time, if warranted.
...And now, who will be the next contestant on "Truth Or Fiction," ...or ought we just call it "Jeopardy."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Thur. Morning --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sometime late this afternoon or early evening I will likely post an update on the Jim Stevenson article. Sincere THANKS to all who have taken the time to send in specific info or views on this matter. MUCH appeciated (and a wide range of opinion has been expressed). I'm still waiting to potentially hear from a couple of people (or anyone else with pertinent last minute thoughts can send them along, as well).
In the meantime to tide you over, here's an unrelated and non-IBWO bird meditation posted by Mike McDowell a couple days ago:

http://www.birddigiscoping.com/2006/12/graced-with-birds.html

Addendum: Mike seems to have now deleted this particular post from his blog...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- U.S. Fish & Wildlife --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Fish & Wildlife has issued a brief summary report of the status of Ivory-bill searching to this point:

http://www.fws.gov/ivorybill/QA-2006-2007search-season-12-21-2006.pdf

One of the more heartening statements reads as follows:

"Q: What if the 2006/2007 search season still yields no conclusive evidence?

A: The Service still deems it imperative to continue with searches until conclusive evidence is gathered. Enough credible information has surfaced that leads our agency to believe that isolated populations of the species may still exist. It is our responsibility to ensure that we are making the appropriate decisions with regard to habitat management."

So many of the short-sighted skeptical or even fence-sitting sorts are grousing that if no definitive documentation is found this season then the searching ought to end. The real searching has barely begun --- it should end when it is completed, however many years it takes to cover the widely disparate territory from which credible reports emanate... and not a moment beforehand. Glad to see the USF&W may actually stick to it's guns on this one.

Hope to have more to say about the Jim Stevenson article within a few days, but for now (assuming Jim hasn't snapped under the threat of a jail sentence for killing a feral cat) the feedback I'm getting is leaning toward the authenticity of his account --- subject to change though as I continue trying to clear up several things troubling to me. Yet one more bizarre episode in the ever bizarre saga of the Ivory-bill!

Have a Ho, Ho, Ho day...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------