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The USFWS latest IBWO comment period is officially over [possibly some late entries may yet appear]. Will repeat again what the USFWS was (quite reasonably) seeking, in their own words:
“The Service is seeking new information during the 30-day reopening, including clear video or photographic evidence of the presence of the ivory-billed woodpecker that can be repeatedly interpreted the same way by independent observers, such as definitive photographic evidence collected by a field observer. Comments provided during the initial proposal and the previous reopening do not need to be resubmitted.”
What they received, as expected, was mostly meaningless verbal accounts from folks usually giving no credentials for their reports, and others who (embarrassingly) included clear unmistakable still photos of (no surprise) Pileateds. Most of the comments (and pics) simply reinforce the perception that, even after all this time, people are widely ignorant of this species and how to identify it. The believer community continues to largely generate greater skepticism -- as critics never tire of pointing out, it’s a funny coincidence that every decent identifiable picture submitted is of a NON-IBWO (usually a Pileated) leaving only blurry, ambiguous, poor pics to even possibly be an IBWO… as has been the case for decades (well, maybe ‘funny’ isn’t the word for it?)… and yet many believers seem oblivious as to why they are scoffed at, while the quality of evidence, the scientific rigor, the critical-thinking and credibility in this arena has mostly strayed downhill, sometimes into LaLa Land, and naivete and gullibility grows.
Nothing submitted came close to meeting the high bar that USFWS specifically requested. This was basically a 30-day friggin' waste of time -- don’t even know what the purpose of an extended month-long comment period was (probably some sort of procedural requirement), when the actual decision is being put off for 6 whole months. IF good evidence is to come along it will probably be next winter (…but then I’ve been saying that for about 15 winters in a row ;). IF no such evidence arises it’s hard to see, given the pressures upon them, how USFWS will have any other choice but follow the consensus and de-list, despite the vocal opponents of such.
The main substantive new submission in to USFWS came from Bobby Harrison. I don’t wish to feed more ammunition to the skeptics so won’t address Harrison’s tightly-rehearsed, year-and-a-half-old video in detail at the moment other than to say that, while interesting, I don’t find it compelling, convincing, rigorous, objective, nor even terribly credible, but rather just another typical example of the incessant over-promising and under-delivering that has marked the last several years. For folks who want to gobble it up though, hey I can find you some Loch Ness Monster footage you ought reeeally enjoy….
I assume the stunning lack of discussion of his video in actual serious birding circles is a reflection of how little time or attention science-minded folks think it merits… though maybe duckhunter sites will find it irresistible. Quack, quack.
It’s also problematic that USFWS does not ask questions at these presentations… Bobby's clip and analysis begs for questions to be posed, and not the softballs that come from the believer community. It’s a major dereliction of duty to NOT ask questions of such. Bobby’s film is legit, but what if someone offers up a pretty obviously fake, CGI or whatever, video of an IBWO for the Agency… is USFWS just going to sit there, nodding, taking it all in!? Do the officials who watched Bobby’s clip even have any expertise/knowledge/competency to adjudge what they were viewing?… I assume so... but would have a better idea if they posed questions along the way. And then there's all the lovely Pileated pics sent to USFWS by sincere folks declaring them to be IBWO -- is it against USFWS to publicly respond by informing them of their confusion? a possible teaching moment. For now, we seem doomed to 20 more years of Nessie photography and PIWO pics masquerading ad nauseam as IBWO, when all we need is one photo from an automatic remote camera trained on a nest/roost hole or active foraging site. Without that, this 3-ringed circus atmosphere will continue to grow.
Color me peeved.
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ADDENDUM:
Turns out there were 6 late comments turned in to USFWS that have now been additionally posted — I’m a bit uneasy that so many folks waited so late to post their material; it’s as if they were too afraid to leave time for skeptics to react to what they were posting (of course skeptics can still respond, but just not on the USFWS site). At any rate the final postings are here:
Not certain why, but Bobby Harrison simply posted his brief videos again, this time without narration; they were previously in a supplemental section (and of course available several other places as well), but I guess he wanted to have them somewhere on the main comment page.
Dan Dullum’s post is probably the closest to my own take on all these matters so I’ll recommend reading it also.
Matt Courtman does a good job of summarizing/overviewing his take on things, so you’ll want to read his entry (though nothing too new in it).
And finally there is John D. Williams’ lengthy, long-awaited entry (which will require a lot more time, including by myself, to slowly go through text and all photos/videos). For now I’ll simply say that, if authenticated as true and accurate, the (implausible?) tale he tells will literally likely go down as the greatest story in the history of American ornithology!! — that of course is a tall order. And while some photos and video are interesting, others much less so. But truly what I think is most interesting is the narrative given toward the end by the purported South Carolina reporter of these (multiple) IBWOs, assuming he really exists — seriously, there is so much sketchiness here and unanswered questions/details, I’m unwilling to assume anything about this odd storyline. But it is certain to get a lot of chatter going (though again, like the Harrison video, it's possible the chatter may be relegated to IBWO bubbles and not serious birding or ornithology sites?). Keep in mind as you read John's narrative, not just what he's telling you, but how much is being left out, or assumed.
[added: I will be sending John a list of questions before the weekend per his request below (even though I suspect he is not at liberty to answer several of them) — BUT I must be blunt, having re-read this piece I am even more underwhelmed, and give it less credence, than upon the first reading; just doesn’t pass the smell test -- with that said, would love to be convinced, because it's a fabulous storyline, but too many problems.]
ADDENDUM 8/10:
And now there are yet 3 additional comments posted to USFWS just today:
It'll take me a day or two to get to these, but I'll probably post the questions I'm sending to John Williams tomorrow or Friday here at the blog.
3 comments:
We wrote a Comment that has not been posted yet. 7500 words.
The observer is real and his name is known to USFW, which is one of the best developments of this story. What kind of unanswered question/details do you have? Email me.
The long sweeping and ascending flight, with brilliant white that overwhelms the black are frequently referenced in nany historical accounts. This is not a bounding Pileated Woodpecker that I’ve observed since childhood; to say to anything else is contrarian to the evidence and without merit.
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