— Odds & Ends —

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1)  First, will just note that Matt Courtman holds his next monthly Zoom get-together tomorrow (Monday) at 8pm EDT.

2)  Some folks seem to keep panicking over the USFWS possible removal of the IBWO from the endangered list. Apparently it scared Bobby Harrison so much he decided to quit sitting on a year-and-a-half-old video and figure out some way to use it as evidence for IBWOs existing (at least 20+ months ago; no telling if that particular bird is still alive).

But guess what, everyone can still search for the bird even if it’s de-listed, you can report it, you can research it, you can doctor photos of Pileateds if you wish — nothing really changes. The private lands this species may reside on stay the same; the public lands are largely protected for a great many reasons beyond any IBWO presence (and of course all U.S. songbirds are protected from harm). The main thing that changes if this bird is de-listed is that the USFWS subjects itself to absolute ridicule and decreased credibility if the species is then ultimately documented, and it must then backtrack — that ought be the real fear, the USFWS seen as incompetent. I suspect the de-listing recommendation came about to start with because the Agency already felt pummeled and ridiculed from a great many quarters for NOT listing the IBWO as extinct, and only when it encountered the vocal backlash of the ‘believer’ community did it suddenly become aware of the ‘rock and hard place’ it was betwixt — open to ridicule and egg-on-its-face in either direction just depending upon which one finally holds sway.

3)  Am curious why I've heard nothing more about the ACONE automated bird-viewing system that was deployed in the Big Woods search and, to my knowledge, not used since in any IBWO searches (if anyone previously involved is able to speak on that)? It had plenty of mechanical/operating problems, and perhaps was expensive to deploy/analyze, but even with all its downtime and trying conditions it seemed like one of the better ideas that was attempted back in the day… and all these years later, surely the programming and performance (even efficiency) could only be improved by now. Is it just a case of no other corridor or opening seeming worthy of deployment since the Big Woods (which seems hard to imagine), or just too expensive/difficult to maintain/monitor/analyze the results, or something else? I’ll repeat what I’ve said previously, the single greatest failure (out of so many) in this saga, has been the failure of ANY remote, automatic camera system to capture a clear, indisputable photo of an IBWO (while having little trouble capturing pileateds, red-heads, hawks, raccoons, possums, squirrels, deer, etc.etc.). Robots have capabilities that humans will never have, and don’t suffer human frailties, limitations, and excuses, yet even robotic systems, have not definitively documented this bird.

4)  About a week remaining in the current comment period to USFWS. One thing I'm not clear on is the exact procedure for contributing yet further evidence (and there ought be some) to USFWS over the next 5 months (well after this comment period) before the Agency makes its decision? 

Anyway, I suspect that the next week may be interesting... and, not necessarily in a good way. 

8-/ 

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ADDENDUM:

videos don’t lie… so I guess JFK’s limo driver assassinated him:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6vWgMDq6tk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A--W4xRqLzw

ADDENDUM2:

Roshan Vignarajah is a young birder bitten by the Ivory-bill bug who has been doing his own YouTube blog, and has started a few Ivory-bill entries as seen here:

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLwU1HS6IwGHxRz8YTREqVS7ECF0b_8vcV

ADDENDUM 8/5:

TGIF...

-- Awaiting Evidence --

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With all the talk of evidence these days, just realized it's about the 16th anniversary since this memorable piece of evidence was originally introduced (just to take a sad trip down memory lane...); sometimes I wonder how much progress we've really made since then?:

(blast from the past)

Still a tad flabbergasted at the scarcity of in-depth discussion of Harrison's latest vid -- as if skeptics don't even find it worthy of their time!? Probably an omen of how tiresome birders find these poor-to-inconclusive offerings.  The closest thing I've seen to a substantive post anywhere is this one (by Henning) from BirdForum:

https://www.birdforum.net/threads/new-ivory-billed-woodpecker-info.426599/page-4#post-4356103

The poster is mainly concerned with photographic artifacts, so I'll just toss out a related concern. Bobby admits he was using a 20-year-old camera. Photographers take good care of their equipment, BUT still a 20-year-old camera is likely to have some micro-abrasions/scratches, imperfections, dust particles, etc. that may cause further artifacts in stills or film especially when the camera is moving (...and while Bobby himself points out a few artifacts in the clip, that by no means rules out other unrecognized artifactual elements).

Right now, what we need, above all, is to show that this species simply still exists... period! IF you're interested in money or fame or publication or other self-serving matters, then legal or conservation or procedural matters may be important and delay things, but IF you're truly interested in the bird itself, the immediate real concern ought be to get any actual good evidence made public ASAP to establish that, lo-and-behold, it lives. IF I captured video that I felt clearly showed an IBWO in the wild it would be in the hands of a dozen or so experienced birders whose judgment I respect within two weeks, and at virtually the same time it would be on at least a couple of internet sites... difficult for me to even take seriously video held back longer than that --  it's an admission that the video is not that good and gives off the appearance of needing time to figure out how to plausibly 'spin' it into an IBWO that people might somehow, possibly, perhaps, just maybe with some coaxing, believe (moreover, the provenance of any such long-held video must then be examined: who all has handled it and done what to it, when). I don't mind there being a plenitude of fuzzy, debatable videos for this species, I just mind having them quickly adjudged as persuasive or 'proof' or otherwise hyped beyond their value. Every such over-hyped video and over-the-top claim, simply adds yet one more nail into the IBWO's coffin in the public eye, while making 'believers' appear more foolhardy than they've already been painted. So until truly clearcut evidence is produced (if ever) I'll continue to try to tamp down the enthusiasm and anticipation over weak-to-mediocre-to-speculative evidence. The problem in the Ivory-bill realm is not that skeptics have ever really won their case, it's that believers constantly shoot themselves in the foot.

But, onward we trudge. So here is a recent article from Arkansas that includes a 35-minute interview with David Luneau (not too much new if you’re a long-time follower of the topic, but a nice overview of several things):

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2022/jul/27/capitol-scott-searching-for-the-ivory-billed-woodpecker/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_ArkansasOnline

Meanwhile, folks have about 11 more days to get their very nice Pileated photos uploaded to the USFWS.  :(

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-- Weekend Interlude --

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Feel like injecting a li'l humor... in the event the next post or two aren't very lighthearted. Old Tom Toles cartoon from back in the heyday of the Big Woods search:

...Still seeing no significant or extended discussion at serious birding sites of the latest video "evidence" which probably says a lot about how dismissively the bulk of the birding community regards it, with about 16 days left for comments to USFWS.

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-- A Li'l Followup To the Harrison Clip --

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I s’pose I should’ve expected it, but am amazed at the wide range of views I’m seeing around forums, quora, birding sites, social media etc.etc. on Harrison's almost 2-years-old 10 seconds; amazed at how different people can see so many widely differing things — and that is exactly the sort of Rorschach-like outcome that doesn't help matters. If people are viewing the video on a mobile apparatus that is a problem right away; but admittedly I’m viewing it on a laptop which may also be problematic. Big screen would be best, but certainly wouldn’t resolve all the problems.

I haven’t yet seen a real, deep discussion of the video I’d be willing to link to (the Birdforum site is especially disappointing, but then I know how sick they are of this debate); mostly just a lot of opinions/assertions being put out really not taking all variables into consideration (also,a lot of mockery). I know what I think the bird is too, but not willing to say ‘cuz it serves no purpose except to create unresolvable arguments. It would be neat to see the video thrashed about on the “Frontiers of Bird Identification” listserv — is that still operating?  I can’t seem to find it… in fact I can’t even get the ABA general site for state listservs to boot up the last several days…? Anyone know anything about that. Very bad timing  :(  (or, if the sites ARE operating for others let me know).

Anyway, here’s what I do wish — ‘cuz we don’t really need a lot more commentary from ‘believers’ on the video; they are so committed/invested already, that their views will be routinely dismissed as un-objective and non-credible by the bulk of the birding community — what I would dearly like to hear are the fleshed-out opinions of renowned birders long and well-respected for their field identification skills: Sibley, Crossley, Kaufman, Dunne, Jackson, certainly come to mind, but there are many others (names not so familiar to the general public, but well-established within birding circles) — I’d like to hear what 10 - 12 of those folks, who have actually observed, photographed, painted, written about bird identification for decades, see in the video (and what they think of Bobby's assertions)… especially if there is any consensus among them (there may not be, which would be interesting in itself). But so far, just the sounds of silence from those I’d most want to hear from, and such silence itself may speak volumes? (unless they are on the listservs that I can't seem to pull up). [OK, added: this morning 7/22, I was finally able to open the various state listservs again, as well as "ID Frontiers," and sure enough, NO significant discussion of the latest video, which is probably pretty telling by itself of how unseriously the birding community as a whole takes these now almost routine, erratic, blurry video releases and claims.... though, with more time, perhaps some discussion will ensue?]

I’ll end with what just might be my favorite comment into USFWS so far:

“I have a 30 second video of a Ivory Billed woodpecker but it’s 46mb and this site only allows 10mb. How can I get it to you?”

Somehow seems to typify the befuddled state we're in... and so it goes…. ;)

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— Are We Having Fun Yet!? -- After 17 Years — +Addenda

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Happy Anniversary, to me! Incredibly, this month marks the 17th anniversary of this blog, which I started, envisioning a li’l news service to run for 1 or 2 years recounting the activities of an IBWO recovery program; and little guessing the controversy that would ensue, within a couple weeks of initial posting, let alone still being waged 17 years later, with many of the same arguments, theories, blather, etc. (I’ve actually started and closed about 15 other blogs over that time period, but this one is the gift that just keeps on giving! ;))  A number of key people have passed away over that space of time (...and, a number of 'skeptics' have simply left the debate in disgust!)… but others enter the fray to fill their spaces.

I naively thought that when the Cornell/USFWS and Choctawhatchee searches ended over a dozen years ago that debate might be over… unless or until another Gene Sparling-like figure suddenly came forth with another report AND photograph. Instead, after a lull in the proceedings, a number of folks (too many to mention) kept plugging away in various ways and through various channels, creating a sort of IBWO bubble, keeping hope alive, and here we are today. Indeed, a lot of skeptics simply quit following the storyline and were caught off-guard when the more recent USFWS controversy ensued. I'm still not confident of what the short-term will bring though, and we can continue with this level of evidence, this level of debate, and never-ending assurances that ‘proof’ is right around the corner, for another 20 years. But nobody ought want that (least of all those of us who won't be around for another 20 years!). 

Meanwhile, a number of the IBWO postings on Facebook are going from the ridiculous to the sublime (or, is it the other way around?), as are the current comments being sent into USFWS, not giving me a whole lot of encouragement for the rest of this year (but, who knows). Reminder: you have about 3 weeks left to get your own "claims" into USFWS during this renewed comment period, and maybe, hopefully, improved comments will yet appear -- again, IF you are sending something in that requires extensive explanation of why it is "evidence" of the IBWO... OR, that requires them to simply believe what you are saying with no authentication, OR that is "evidence" that they are already well aware of -- then DON'T BOTHER sending it (it is NOT what they want). Oy.

Anyway, in celebration of the approaching blog anniversary I’ll throw out a couple of bits which were at least good for entertainment (if you haven't already seen these on the main IBWO Facebook page). First, one of the oddest/quirkiest minor stories I’ve ever seen in covering this saga since it began!... a brief story about PBS, of all entities, prankishly inserting IBWO sounds (double-knocks and kents) into a documentary on cicadas (having nothing to do with IBWOs) — I can’t imagine what they were thinking (I constantly expect pranks and hoaxes in the IBWO realm… but from PBS!?)

Here is the original posting mentioning the story:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/5544235825597802/

...and the referenced sounds start just before the 51-minute point in this video:

https://www.pbs.org/video/wfyi-local-productions-return-cicadas/?fbclid=IwAR1RhXzX58mkULB3oONCL3n8opE5UaMbuBz8GAvHoHH8CKWOtWTcQIrjvas

Second, is this wholly bizarre case of published avian species misidentification (NOT involving IBWO, but still...):

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/5546053918749326/

Hey, maybe the lesson in all of this is, to expect the unexpected!  ;)

Lastly, I'll close out with one of the more serious, and interesting, posts from Chris Gullickson at FB recounting how ultralights were used back during the Cornell/USFWS Big Woods search; a methodology that was mentioned, but not detailed at the time (you need to keep scrolling down and opening Gullickson's posts/description, which is interspersed with comments from others):

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/5549907825030602/

....enough for now

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ADDENDUM  7/18:

While others are sending in pics of Pileated Woodpeckers to USFWS to argue that the IBWO still exist (...oy veyyyy), the "Center For Biological Diversity" has now weighed in, almost vehemently, to say it does NOT! Download and read their comment and followup here:

https://www.regulations.gov/comment/FWS-R4-ES-2020-0109-0182

While most of the stated criticisms are common and not new, I include this here so as to indicate the exasperation of the skeptical side (which I expect to only become more forceful by the end of the current comment period), and show what "believers" are up against in putting forth weak, ambiguous "evidence."

ADDENDUM  7/19:

...and now an addendum to the above Addendum!:

https://www.regulations.gov/comment/FWS-R4-ES-2020-0109-0185

an "anonymous" poster responds to the Center For Biological Diversity with the usual counterpoints (by inserting objections into their own article). Not sure how much of this sort of back-and-forth I'll keep linking to, should it continue, but these two reads somewhat give the overall flavor of the debate as it currently holds.

Be interesting to see how many more responses arrive in the 3 weeks remaining for comments.

ADDENDUM (again)  7/19:

Sheeesh, a 2nd addendum in one day, in what should be a quiet summer on this topic… the long-hyped, overly-anticipated Bobby Harrison video (from Oct. 2020) is now out. It can be seen starting around the 11-minute mark in this 54-min. piece from Matt Mendenhall of Birdwatching Magazine:

https://www.birdwatchingdaily.com/news/conservation/exclusive-video-evidence-ivory-billed-woodpecker/?fbclid=IwAR3lI_AWQvIhBxvKAUHPZ-ULnGpE4Ahv9jL0HEcXVWNW2r_38Sf7r9eDowE

Again, does nobody understand English anymore! What USFWS wants is visual evidence that requires no explanation — that, upon viewing, will be agreed by all to be an Ivory-billed Woodpecker (and shown forensically not to be faked); it doesn’t have to be pristine, just easily recognizable, like billions of other photographed birds. This isn’t it; this isn’t even close, nor even close to being close. The variables, problems, issues, questions, etc. are too many to even approach, but no doubt others will.

Again, chances are that NO video of this species in brief flight will ever be adequate to ‘prove’ its existence.  Repeating what I’ve said before: we need photos/video of this bird PERCHED on a trunk, on a limb, on a log, at a hole…. the way it spends the majority of its day, day after day after day after day.

But now this will be the debate du jour for this week until the next deep-analyzed video comes along... and then maybe the next... and the next... and the......

[BTW, I want to be clear that I'm not questioning whether or not Bobby has seen the IBWO, even multiple times, I'm simply acknowledging the huge gaping, exasperating difference between sighting the bird and offering conclusive evidence of having done so.]

added:  the USFWS has now posted Bobby's presentation to them (essentially identical to the Birdwatching Magazine version, just with an additional comment by Tim Gallagher at the end):

https://www.regulations.gov/document/FWS-R4-ES-2020-0109-0186

(I'm debating whether or not to even write about the issues I have with the video, most of which will probably be voiced by various skeptics as it is, and I don't really want to be feeding them any material!)

BTW, in some ways Harrison's clip is reminiscent of the brief film clip the Auburn team took at the Choctawhatchee back in the day (and released quite late, because they knew how unconvincing it was) -- not sure if it's even still available anywhere(?); Bobby's is better but in a few ways similar.

-- A Reprieve -- +Addenda

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Not totally unexpectedly, the USFWS has announced a 6-month extension to its consideration of de-listing the Ivory-billed Woodpecker from endangered status. The IBWO was among 23 species scheduled for de-listing around September of this year, barring new evidence/information, and obviously there is enough controversy surrounding the Lord God bird to separate it out for special consideration (I assume the other 22 species will in fact still be de-listed before year’s end):

https://www.fws.gov/press-release/2022-07/service-announces-6-month-extension-final-decision-ivory-billed-woodpecker?fbclid=IwAR0d6PLugrDteydaJtYOsgR1V2YPlfeYSet3QMxUcNHNhw_NVKaDXm-Qdgo

In the announcement, USFWS further opens yet another new 30-day comment period, essentially starting now and running until midnight August 7, 2022. Part of the announcement reads as follows (I’ve bolded some bits):

“The Service is seeking new information during the 30-day reopening, including clear video or photographic evidence of the presence of the ivory-billed woodpecker that can be repeatedly interpreted the same way by independent observers, such as definitive photographic evidence collected by a field observer. Comments provided during the initial proposal and the previous reopening do not need to be resubmitted.”

also: “Information on how to submit comments is available at www.regulations.gov by searching under docket numberFWS‒R4‒ES‒2020‒0109”

Despite asking to avoid it, they will probably receive a number of repetitive, duplicative comments to what they have received already, so do keep in mind they are most interested in NEW and clearcut evidence (it's actually a pretty high bar, buuut, over the entire 6-month period it could happen).

...In other unrelated news, the proprietor of the main IBWO Rediscovered page on Facebook is contemplating taking the group “private” which has pluses and minuses… I s’pose he’ll make a decision soon.

So again, a lot going on, but not a lot of real news! and again, I'll be (pleasantly) surprised if there is much news before next winter. [Added: not clear to me why the agency is doing another 30-day comment period... perhaps just some sort of legal or procedural requirement? when evidence/documentation that arises in the next 4-5 months could clearly influence their final decision; i.e., a photo/video showing up in 35 days is not ignored because it failed to arrive within the 30 day period.]

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ADDENDUM  7/7:

There seems to almost be a pattern to the posts at the Facebook group that appear for awhile and then are later deleted…

(by the way, the group is now at 5900 members; not sure it will ever hit the 6400 figure I had predicted before it may go private (at least on a trial basis).

Matt Courtman will hold another Zoom meeting/chat this coming Monday night (8pm EDT) to update his ongoing search (currently in Tensas NWR, where he claims an encounter at end of June):

https://www.facebook.com/events/2364922253681976?ref=newsfeed

Meanwhile, I’m stiiiiiiiiiill looking for a “skeptic” to do a transcribed interview here at the blog. If interested, let me know (cyberthrush@gmail.com) and I can send along some questions for you to look over.

Ohhh, and hey, Boris Johnson will no longer be PM of Britain.

ADDENDUM2  7/8:

Jeeeeeez, the first 3 new comments are into the USFWS. NOT at all encouraging!

https://www.regulations.gov/document/FWS-R4-ES-2020-0109-0166/comment?sortBy=postedDate&sortDirection=desc

On a side-note, there now seem to be at least 4-5 Facebook groups (not all active, or public) for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker; will be interesting to see how these all shake out, especially in the event that the main one (with 5900 members currently) decides to go private.

ADDENDUM3  7/12:

There are now 14 comments in to the USFWS site, 13 of which are nothing but essentially useless, anecdotal verbal assertions or claims that will carry NO weight (and ought not to)! when the Agency has specifically asked for NEW, CLEAR, PHOTOGRAPHIC evidence... is it that hard to follow directions folks!? Frankly, this is embarrassing and part of why this debate is considered laughable by so many. The one somewhat substantive comment by a poster pertains to the Latta data/evidence which USFWS is no doubt already quite familiar with. Folks are only hurting the case for the IBWO with all these unsubstantiated claims and NON-new evidence. What USFWS wants and needs is something, if not indisputable, at least more clear than anything yet that has been made public. I'll just leave you with an old popular saying, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.” :(

Added...:  ;)