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I need to just go ahead and post this before it becomes unwieldy (have already whacked a third of it away, opting for more general and less detailed analysis):
Reaction to the Project Principalis paper has fallen largely along pretty predictably-entrenched lines. I guess no surprise, though honestly I was a bit taken aback by the speed and divergency of opinions. Auburn’s Geoff Hill was quick out of the gate to call the research virtually conclusive of IBWO presence… for which he received a lot of pushback… and as someone highly-invested in seeing the species documented Dr. Hill’s view and objectivity will naturally be questioned. Other long-time believers similarly spoke well of the work. A couple of somewhat more centrist takes came from evolutionary (and sometimes controversial) biologist Jerry Coyne in his blogpiece:
https://whyevolutionistrue.com/2022/04/11/is-the-ivory-billed-woodpecker-still-with-us/
…and also from British press The Guardian:
There have been many other moderately pro and con takes that I won’t bother to cite (and will no doubt be many more) -- one reason I whacked a third of what I had written is because I was trying to cover all the commentaries and opinions coming along, but there were just toooo many, so moved to a more general overview.
Swiftly there were a slew of critiques of the work, from those dedicated to the denier camp — while I agree there are potential problems with the presentation, I was still surprised by the quickness and certainty of some of the attacks. But there you go… that’s where we’re at. The only positive thing I can say in that regard is that there are also several major IBWO critics who I've not yet seen come forward with an opinion… does that mean they are mulling it over or that they find some value in the work… or do they just not care any longer and wish the topic would fade away? Time will tell.
A lot of the criticism/debate, quite naturally, is focused on the videos and stills in the paper, with remarkably different interpretations of what is being seen (what is a clear 'saddle' to some is an artifact or space to others, and on and on). Several of the criticisms of the seeming ‘saddle’ on the bird(s) are simply giving alternative explanations of how such an artifact could appear in a photo, but the problem with that is that the saddle appears to move right along with the bird as it moves in the video, just as one would expect if it was a real part of the bird. Like the Luneau video, these photos/video turn out to be little more than Rorschach tests for whatever your opening predisposition or entrenched position is, and both sides of the debate end up utterly aggravated.
It is unfortunate that some are simply ignoring all the other evidence recorded here and seeing the research as an entire collection of data instead of simply a couple of new videos (despite the title stressing "multiple lines of evidence"). The authors only briefly mention sightings and auditory recordings, but those who have followed their work for the last 10 years know they have previously reported several of both (but knowing the unconvincing nature of sightings and audio chose not to focus on them here, but yes, they exist). Indeed, we've reached a point where almost all evidence is automatically de-valued except for clear and credible photographic imagery. Further many make the argument that 20 pieces of weak evidence for a claim is no better than 1 piece of weak evidence... although you might think of it like a criminal trial where 1 piece of circumstantial evidence would never convict, but 20 bits of circumstantial evidence might do it.
Since the arguments are once again likely irresolvable I won’t even get into the endless back-and-forth of specific points, but only reiterate that I believe the current work is the best overall evidence I've seen in over 10 years. Unfortunately, I suspect no (respected) journal will take this paper because of their sheer fear of anything IBWO-related, the topic being radioactive! I do wonder what additional and even better data Project P. might have by the time any acceptance would come along many months from now.
Honestly, this whole saga is beginning to feel like an instance of the old Peanuts cartoon where Charlie Brown thinks he’s going to at last kick the football that Lucy is holding, only to have it always snatched away at the last moment. ;)
Before signing off I can’t help but mention it brought a small grin to my face to see these birds cavorting near the top of a large hardwood tree. My contention for some time has been, that in areas trafficked by humans, IBWOs have likely become high-arboreal birds, nesting, roosting, feeding, and hangin-out their entire lives in the upper third of the forest canopy, rarely (if ever) coming to the ground or even the midway point of trees. That is the easiest explanation I have for why the species is so difficult to locate, see, or photograph, and the vast majority of sightings are of birds in flight, not perched birds. Photo ops will require a telephoto lens or an automatic camera placed (and serviced) by a climber high in the canopy… or finally, alternatively, a drone overhead (as the La. team is already employing). An old birding adage says “Look up!” — it certainly applies to IBWO searchers. The Project P. birds were frolicking just as I envision IBWOs doing, oblivious to the mundane human world beneath them.
Lastly, I'll note that for any who wish to follow further commentary on this paper there is a handy place on the bioRxiv page where you simply give your email and they will automatically send you “alerts” of future changes/comments/links related to the preprint.
In the short term, I'm not sure how much more I'll address this work, as once again I see a lot of sturm und drang coming down the pike, but no likelihood of resolution. [with that said, there are about a half-dozen ornithological figures who I'm still waiting to see weigh in on the work, and, if they should that might motivate another post.]
[ NOTE: After hearing from a couple of emailers, I've done some slight editing above, and added back in some lines I had previously cut from the original version.]
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ADDENDUM 4/16:
I'll add this new article which covers matters a bit more broadly than most of the pieces I'm seeing lately:
ADDENDUM 4/17:
Just feel a need to say this: Back when the USFWS recommendation/controversy was all over the news I warned that the next several months would likely see a new flurry of IBWO sighting claims — with publicity always comes more bogus reports.
And now with the new research published getting widely reported I’ll state that warning yet again — am already seeing the uptick in unfounded claims to my inbox and around social media. Pleeease, if you’re not an experienced birder, do NOT bother sending me a claim unless you know how to write up a very detailed observational account, or it is accompanied by a photo or video. [I think I've already counted over a dozen claims in the last 2+ weeks that were accompanied by photos, and were clearly Pileateds.]
ADDENDUM 4/18:
What we really need now is the return of "Ivorybill Septic" to add a little levity to things! (for those of you with a good memory, who have followed this saga since say 2006) ;) …while I’m mulling over what aspect to look at next. Are you out there I.S., perhaps in Colorado or Washington? I need your input; the array of opinions I’m getting in email are all over the map.
Am tempted to re-address this whole crazy confusion between IBWOs and Pileated Woodpeckers, two species that really are NOT similar in detail at all (different head patterns, different backs, different ventral and dorsal wings, different bills), and yet in cursory looks come off with an odd gestalt similarity (as the same colors are present); also tempted to refer readers back to my post (and examples) some months ago focused on visual illusions:
https://ivorybills.blogspot.com/2021/12/seeing-is-not-necessarily-believing.html
....and yet, paradoxically, nothing gives me more confidence of the species' continued persistence then the sheer number of identifications leftover from experienced, knowledgeable observers in multiple locales over the years, even when the plenitude of weak and superficial claims are tossed out.
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