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IVORY-BILLS  LiVE???!  ...

=> THE blog devoted to news and commentary on the most iconic bird in American ornithology, the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (IBWO)... and... sometimes other schtuff.
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"....The truth is out there."

-- Dr. Jerome Jackson, 2002 (... & Agent Fox Mulder)

“There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”

-- Hamlet

"All truth passes through 3 stages: First it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as self-evident."

-- Arthur Schopenhauer






Friday, October 10, 2008

 

-- Cornell Scaling Back in AR. --

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Arkansas Public Radio segment here confirming that Cornell will be scaling back it's efforts in Arkansas this coming season (although efforts by other agencies will continue). No mention made of the specific search plans for other states at this point.

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Comments:
What is your current confidence level that there is at least one living Ivory-bill somewhere in the world? How much hope is left?
 
I s'pose if I had to throw a number on it right this moment I'd guess roughly 75+% probability, but the more important question may be, IF any exist what is the probability of ever attaining documentation that all can agree on? I still happen to think it's above 50%, but it is a tougher question --- and if there were indeed, say, only 1-3 IBWOs remaining in the wild, the odds of documenting the species drops far far lower.
 
Ah, Cyberthrush, I see with regret that you're now only 75+% confident that a few ivorybills survive. You used to be 90+% confident.
And Fangsheath, who once posted so eloquently on Birdforum, was 99.999% certain that the Ivory-billed Woodpecker still flies.
Well I hope he's right.
And the bonus is: that would make you right too, and many people happy!
salar53
 
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