-- Guthrie Returning to Big Woods --

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New York birder Rich Guthrie, who claimed an Ivory-bill sighting in the Big Woods as a volunteer for the Cornell team in 2007, is headed back for another look according to this report. His own blog is here --- I assume he'll eventually post about the outing when he returns.
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-- No Luck... This Time --

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Painter John Agnew, who reported an Ivory-bill encounter early last year in the Choctawhatchee, reports on his latest excursion there here:

http://herps2art.wordpress.com/2009/03/24/back-to-bruce-creek/
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-- Reminder --

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Just a reminder to folks that what we have from the last 4 years of searching are multiple sounds and signs, from several states, consistent with what we know of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers, and a few fuzzy pictures that people claim are Ivory-bills. Moreover, multiple sighting claims for IBWO from people who are quite familiar with Pileated Woodpeckers, including some who do not say they think, or guess, or believe, that they saw an Ivory-bill, but instead voice unequivocal confidence that they've observed the species. All that is lacking is a definitive, indisputable photo, that everyone agrees upon --- skeptics perceive this as a major fatal lapse; whereas for some of us, it's not so inexplicable that the most stringent level of evidence remains elusive for a rare and sparse bird of dense forest, especially with so much malfunctioning and downtime for the automatic camera systems that may have been the best hope for getting such photographic evidence. I'm certainly disappointed that there have not been more clear sightings by now and that the ACONE system in particular in Arkansas did not capture the bird on film; and disappointed too that the methodologies, procedures, results, and details of official searches have been communicated so poorly to the public-at-large, but I'll await final reports for the '07, '08, '09 seasons (as well as any further reports from independents) before casting a judgment on where we now stand. For the time being, at least five states, besides Arkansas, remain of great interest to me,

Have to keep passing along this wonderful nestcam of storks in Germany, now with at least two eggs:

http://www.stadtpark-mannheim.de/webcam/cam33.htm

By the time you read this the two hummingbird babies, earlier linked-to at another webcam, will probably have left the nest.
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-- Casting Call ;-)) --

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With three different Ivory-bill movies out-and-about in the marketplace, figured I oughta render my own choices for casting a Hollywood blockbuster on the topic. So here are a dozen of the internet figures from this epic saga (column A) and 12 actors I've chosen to play their roles (column B) --- HOWEVER, I've completely JUMBLED the order of the actors from my actual pairings so you can now mix-and-match as you see fit (...and I SHAN'T ever reveal my original choices):

A ......................................................... B

Mike Collins ............................... Matthew Broderick
"Cyberthrush" ............................. Ben Stein
"Fangsheath"............................. Jack Nicholson
John Fitzpatrick ........................ Sean Penn
Geoff Hill ................................... Kevin Costner
Jerry Jackson ............................ Russell Crowe
David Luneau ............................ Will Ferrell
Tom Nelson ............................... Al Pacino
Bill Pulliam ................................. Harrison Ford
David Sibley .............................. Matt Damon
Fred Virrazzi .............................. Tom Hanks
"Anonymous" ............................. Mickey Rourke

Yo, Spielberg, are ya out there?....

(P.S.: Off-topic question: the highly-popular blog "Mike's Birding and Digiscoping Blog" has been down for at least 24-48 hrs... can anyone apprise me, by comments or private email, what's going on there???)
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-- Mobile Team Checks In --

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Latest update from Cornell's Mobile Team continues in the not-terribly-informative format adopted well over a year ago, reading more like a travelogue than any sort of scientific study of potential Ivory-billed Woodpecker habitat:

http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory/latest/mst_March09

The update reports some of the team's activity in Southern Florida (I presume by now they've moved on to finish up in South Carolina), and acknowledges no documentation of the IBWO attained, before rambling off into other tangents of often minimal pertinence. General but no detailed discussion of habitat, nor of any possible cavities or signs of interest. There would be no shame in simply saying that NO sounds, signs, cavities, or sightings of note were found during their efforts, if that is the case (indeed that would be good info to know), but they don't afford such. Nor do they say if the area warrants additional searching, or they believe other areas are more deserving of peoples' time. After promising "articles and updates coming soon" (whatever "soon" means?) quite awhile back, the meagerness (some might say, laughableness) of Cornell's reports is difficult to comprehend from America's premier school of ornithology.

Having said that, I don't doubt that Cornell is doing much good science in the background, but their communication of it to the public is amateurish at best. Very annoying. One gets the feeling that the communications end of things is being run by the same individuals who communicate to 10-year-olds for their so-called "citizen science" projects. I'd like to think the search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker is a notch or two above that. Anyway, enough ranting...

With things soon drawing to a close on the official '08-'09 search season (and word is that the final summary for the '07-'08 season might now actually be close to public release... doooon't get me started), I don't foresee any significant news coming forth from this search season (...more sounds and signs of interest likely, but nothing significant enough to grab the attention of skeptics); although at any given time there are 1000's of Reconyx-type photos yet to be reviewed. I continue to hope that Gary Erdy will re-post his website with more details and fuller presentation at some point, and other independent searchers continue their efforts also, but we may well be watching the demise of major Government-funded searches for the Lord God Bird.
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-- New Open Thread --

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The previous 'open thread experiment' worked reasonably well (decent variety of issues and commenters, with fewer breaches of etiquette than I expected ;-), so hereby a new one starts below (will probably let these run for 30-40 comments before closing them out and starting afresh).
Again, please refrain from personal attacks/accusations toward individuals or institutions; criticisms are ok, but keep it on a civil/constructive level. I'm especially interested in using the space for: 1) getting answers to miscellaneous IBWO questions that readers may have on their minds, 2) discussion that sheds any new light or thoughts on specific evidence or claims, and 3) any new information about ongoing searches that may not yet have been made public; but plenty of other things as well.
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-- Flashback --

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Three years ago this month this article ran in Outside Magazine:

http://outside.away.com/outside/features/200603/ivory-billed-woodpecker.html
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-- 'Ghost Bird' Movie Update --

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An interview with Scott Crocker (producer of the documentary "Ghost Bird" movie), available as podcast at BirdWatch Radio here:

http://www.birdwatchradio.com/audio/bwr019_20090317.mp3

Although, already previewed at several film festivals around country,[ CORRECTION: apparently the San Diego showing was the ONLY festival sneak preview for "Ghost Bird" ] the film gets its official 'world premiere' in early May in Canada. No listing yet for when and where else it will be appearing following that debut.
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-- Collins Paper et.al. --

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A reminder that Mike Collins' paper "Flight Mechanics of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker," presenting his analysis of his sighting claims primarily in Louisiana's Pearl River region is available for study here:

http://www.fishcrow.com/plos_manuscript.pdf

the videos and graphics that are referenced in paper are here:

http://www.fishcrow.com/plos_manuscript.html

I don't know that there is any way to discuss the paper on Mike's site, so comments may need to be posted elsewhere, such as over at an appropriate BirdForum.net thread (if you are a member), or you may use the comment section below this blog entry, or else write to Mike via private email (there might be other options as well). Unless it has already been done, someone should post a link to the paper on an appropriate thread over at BirdForum.net as well. [ I have now mentioned it on one BirdForum thread; it may be appropriate for mention on other threads ? ]

For those asking, I've left up the link to Gary Erdy's website because my current understanding is that the site may be re-launched at some point though I have no idea of a timetable (or if the URL will even be the same). Probably, there are some, after this experience, who will simply grant the site no credibility should it re-appear, so I stress again for the open-minded and objective, that by all indications this entire episode involved just one person and just one image, and there is NO reason not to examine closely the remainder of Gary's evidence.

....On the fun side of things, some nestcam links:

again, the storks in Germany (great webcam if it's not blocked on your computer and you have broadband):
http://www.stadtpark-mannheim.de/webcam/cam33.htm

... a California webcam of an Allen's Hummingbird nest (these little tykes may not be around a lot longer):
http://cam.dellwo.com/

...and lastly this webcam of a Great Horned Owl nesting, incredibly in a tropical plant planter in a Florida shopping area:
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/scgtv-owlcam
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-- The Story That Keeps On Giving... --

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The Ivory-billed Woodpecker... what a spell it casts upon us. Earlier this week, Sharon Stiteler over at Birdchick blog, noting the emotional intensity people, including herself, sometimes have to all-things-Ivorybill, muses in a comment:

"None of us are immune. Maybe that's the bird's secret power?"

A wonderful thought, a bird that has secret power over we humans; may not be so, but almost seems so at times. This story of hope raised, hope dashed, raised, dashed, over and over and over again. This week Gary Erdy discovered the buzzsaw that is this topic.

And this week, traffic to my blog doubled (welcome to any newbies still hangin' around), and the average person, according to stats, visited 4+ times per day --- since many folks only stop by once or twice a day, a lot of people must've been clicking here 6-8 or more times every 24 hrs, hooked on this latest story. Lot of interest for one lone iconic, charismatic, compelling species. And I understand people's passion.

But a few days ago Bill Pulliam noted on his blog that it is "occasionally good to remember that the topics that consume the minds of we birders are rather far off on the fringe of mainstream society, even within the blogosphere." Fer sure. And Steve Sheridan laments that his obsession with this bird caused him to "neglect" other aspects of his life, leading to this week's rather irrational outcome. May these be healthy reminders to us all as we move forward.
...Have a good weekend.

(The 'open thread' continues below, and I have linked to Bill P.s blog in the left-hand 'IBWO Links' column.)

Ohhhh... and just one more thing... GO University of North Carolina Tarheels!!
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-- Open Thread Experiment --

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A few days ago I bemoaned some people straying too far off post-topic in their comments, so here's your chance... I'll try an experimental "open thread" where you can bring up any concern related to the search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker --- it could be from 60 years ago, or from this week. Here is what I do request:

#1. I'd still like people to focus primarily on issues surrounding claims and evidence and related matters, though other Ivory-bill subjects are ok, and some people may simply feel the need to vent a bit at the moment.

#2. I ask that people NOT engage in personal attacks on individuals or institutions (combining #1 and #2 I know is a fine line for some of you ;-) --- this does not mean you can't offer criticism of such, but if you do so, remain civil and thoughtful.

#3. Finally, I hope the space will not be monopolized by 2-3 people going repeatedly back and forth at each other with their own pet peeves which may not be of interest to the readership in general.

With those few guidelines, we'll give it a try. I hope some good can come out of this, but if things get too nasty, repetitive, unproductive, I'll just pull the plug on it, and of course I'll be continuing normal posts as well.
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-- Odds/Ends --

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Steve Sheridan's apology/explanation for his deed is over at Researchers Forum for any who have not seen it yet:

http://www.ibwo.net/forum/showpost.php?p=4972&postcount=1145

For many of us, stiiill a very inexplicable act. Whatever trials he was going through that may have led to this incident, for the short-term he has magnified them many-fold. I wish him the best in coping in the days ahead. As they say, this too shall pass.

For those asking, I know nothing about the future for Gary Erdy's website. It would be nice to believe he has taken it down to re-vamp, as I suggested, in a more full and open manner --- again, I remind readers, Gary is not involved in the forgery, and he was presenting several independent pieces of evidence which are not tied to Steve; I truly hope the site returns. Possibly though, a bunker mentality has taken hold once again and the site may be removed permanently (possibly even at the request of certain agencies), unless or until stronger evidence is attained --- PURE speculation on my part, just trying to imagine what's possible.

It is clear people have a lot to say, so I will try to offer a venue for that --- an experimental "open thread" post described above. If it works, great, and maybe I'll do it every month; if it doesn't work so be it.

ADDENDUM: just discovered that Mike Collins has finally published his IBWO flight dynamics paper as a pdf on his own site here:

http://www.fishcrow.com/plos_manuscript.pdf

I'll link to again in a future post, though not sure when I'll have an opportunity to read it myself. Can't help but note that in a separate aside Mike claims that I have "attacked" his work in the past, even though I don't recall EVER doing so; in fact I'm surprisingly neutral on much of Mike's work, but am not surprised he perceives things otherwise.
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-- Open Access Science --

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Article on open access science here.
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-- Aftermath --

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Longish post, for obvious reasons....

Since I first became aware of the Erdy claims there were a number of slightly troublesome loose ends. And upon first seeing the story and #3 picture, I voiced a concern to someone that nothing I saw totally ruled out hoax (even though I didn't truly suspect that, it had to remain on the table as one option). I was told that no one close to the story (who knew a lot more details than I did) ever regarded that as a possibility. Oddly enough, over days I became more comfortable with the authenticity of the evidence presented, even though certain questions nagged --- and while I believed the Erdy team might be guilty of overzealous interpretation of evidence, fraud gradually faded from my radar.

Now, we know otherwise.
I have to admit to having less sympathy for Steve than what Bill P. expresses at his blog. As deeply and for as long as Steve has been involved in the Ivory-bill saga, he of all people ought surely comprehend the damage done by, and foolhardiness of this almost inexplicable act (it is what I would expect from outliers and newbies to this story, not from those with long involvement, though maybe it was that very long-term involvement without adequate attention that drove him to this point? Who knows...). I suspect the slings and arrows of Steve's own conscience will punish him even more than whatever slings and arrows critics hurl his way. Maybe, in the grand scheme of things, 20 years from now some of the people involved with this whole episode will get together over a beer and look back saying, "Remember when...." and have a good laugh... maybe... but I doubt it, and right now, it stings, a LOT.

...and there is blame to go around:
I am hugely grateful for all those who spend much time diligently involved in the Ivory-bill search and the analysis of data, so I don't mean to sound too harsh here, BUT:
One CAN HARDLY imagine how this evidence could've been reviewed for well over a year by 20 people and this forgery been missed as such. How much intensive technical analysis of the photo and interrogation of the principals was done? Many agree that the bird involved in the photo matches no species adequately, the picture lacks a time-stamp, the story of how the photo was attained had some odd elements, and for some reason only now, 2 years later, does a good and final accurate measurement of size come about. Duhhh!? As Bill P. says (massive understatement), the ball was dropped "at various points this time." I won't ask here the many questions that I'm sure the 20 reviewers are now asking themselves (or will be asked by others), and I'm sure Bill will address some of these things in a future post. But it does leave the mind reeling a bit.

A friend of mine has for years vigorously touted open-access science on the internet. In the beginning I had serious doubts it was a good or truly workable idea. But I have come around. And THIS is a fine example of why. There are certainly reasons on occasion for publicly withholding bits of information, and there are even practical problems as well, but in general, if this data/evidence had been made available on the Web early on for all to view and analyze, 20 people might still have 'dropped the ball' but I guarantee you some (out of 100's that would view it) WOULD NOT have. Different people pick up on different things, pose different questions, come from different backgrounds and experiences, producing different ideas. The more eyes and minds the better. Open access can be disorganized, even chaotic, but it can also be speedy and in the end, result in a much higher quality analysis, filtered through many more appraisals. It is the wave of the future, while the science of secrecy, elites, and closed door meetings, is the science of stagnancy. But change comes slow sometimes, and institutional lethargy is stubborn.

In that vein, it is my hope that as soon as feasible, Gary produces on his site, for full inspection, as much of the evidence that he has gathered over the years and believes is pertinent --- the current piecemeal, drip, drip, drip, production of evidence can only hurt his cause. For the amount of time and energy spent in the study area the volume of evidence thus far revealed seems quite slim IF IBWOs were in fact frequenting this small area on a regular basis.

I believe the location, the number (and approximate dates) of possible sightings and sound encounters, and any possible cavities or foraging sign of interest, should all be exhibited on site for all to judge. At a minimum, sequential before and after pictures for each Reconyx shot used on site should also be included. This may entail a lot of material (or it may not), but I am surprised that, given the time-length of this study, there has not already been a more complete presentation pieced together for the Web. (Frankly, it's difficult to fathom what people have been doing with this evidence for 2+ years???). There are ways then to categorize and filter the many responses that would result from such Web presentation. I'm not sure that Gary, as a non-birder, even fully comprehends the gravity that Ivory-bill claims carry, or the quality of the evidence required to sustain such claims in the present atmosphere --- luckily, he writes in a very tentative tone on his website as warranted, and luckily he has not been associated directly with the forgery we now know of. I also realize these are not entirely Gary's decisions to make --- other agencies are playing a role and have input as to how things proceed. But I continue to say... TIME is of the essence.

p.s.: I have placed Gary's website at the top of the "IBWO Links" list in left-hand column for easy access.
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-- News Flash! --

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Photo forged....

Bill Pulliam has broken the unfortunate news of mystery bird #3 at his blog here. I'm not even sure myself if Bill knows how little of the official story had been released on the blogosphere yet (this may even be a 'canned' post since I believe he is still away from computer access; not sure). My own intention was not to say much until Gary had spoken his peace on the matter. Though now I may post later this evening or tomorrow, whether or not Gary has posted anything.

I will remind folks that there is other evidence besides the #3 bird color photo, but I don't know anything about the handling/processing of the Reconyx pictures to know if there is any possibility that they could be compromised.
Obviously, a very sad, disturbing turn of events.
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-- Not Good Signs? --

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The longer we go without a report of new size measurements for mystery bird #3, the murkier things potentially become... at least for now.

On a separate note, I am not currently able to bring up Steve Sheridan's own Ivory-bill website (which detailed his Ivory-bill sightings of the more distant past, unrelated to the current claims). It was working yesterday as I recall --- possibly he is doing major revisions to it in light of the current story, or, possibly the reason lies elsewhere. If anyone knows for sure please feel free to comment, but I'd like to avoid idle speculation.

Addendum: Now (5 am. 3/18), "mystery bird #3" has been deleted from the Erdy website. Again, maybe it is down while that section simply gets re-vamped; I won't speculate about the likely reason right now. More foreboding: I just noticed that Steve Sheridan's name has been removed from mention as part of Erdy's "team" on page one of his site (Sheridan was the photographer producing the bird #3 photo)..
Just to avoid rampant speculations I'm turning off comments here for a 12 -24 hr. 'cool down' period until further clarification comes.
BTW, Bill P. is in the field without computer access, but will return late Thur., and likely have his own thoughts on matters to share at that point.
Should anyone wish to send along clarifications, not conjecture, to me via email you may still do so.
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-- The Links Again --

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Again, links (besides this blog) to keep near at hand:

http://www.ivorybillphotoproject.com/home .....(home for the Erdy site)

http://www.ivorybillphotoproject.com/mystery_bird_3_and_comparison_b .....(mystery bird #3) [ NO LONGER AVAILABLE ]

http://bbill.blogspot.com .....(Bill Pulliam's blog)

Folks may want to play with images of woodpeckers at:

http://images.google.com/

(Just type in whatever species you want to view; there are 1000's of images. Many images on Flickr as well.)

There are also videos of woodpeckers, if you wish to view them in motion, on YouTube, birdcinema, and other sites, though as a start, still images are quicker to run through.
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-- Pete Dunne, Ya Got A Moment? --

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;-) To say the least, this is a longshot, but what the hey....

I can probably give one teensy hint as to the identity of the 3/13 anonymous respondent: it WASN'T Pete Dunne... But if a genie popped out of a Beaujolais bottle and granted me just one American birder to analyze mystery bird #3, without much hesitation, I'd choose Dunne (he probably only gets about 3 dozen outlandish requests like this per day). Pete likely needs no introduction to most readers here, and while there are other field birders with equal skills to his, he brings a combination of attributes to this discussion that set him apart:

1. Every serious birder likely knows of and respects Pete's field expertise, and would consider very seriously his analysis and judgment.

2. He is a primary advocate of the "Cape May School of birding;" also known as "gestalt" or "giss" bird identification. I've previously contended that gestalt birding is a key element in this entire decades-old debate, and I want to hear from someone with that specific orientation/slant to bird identification. Who else could write a 700+ page book of strictly verbal descriptions for N. American birds (NO pictures), and make it an almost indispensable guide for American birders? NO ONE, that's who!!

3. Several prominent birders/ornithologists have at some point publicly committed themselves to the notion that the Ivory-bill is almost certainly extinct... personally, I think these individuals can STILL objectively/fairly analyze a given piece of evidence, but others (including many readers of this blog) worry that past statements impede full objectivity on the matter. Pete does not come with that baggage, as he has always (so far as I'm aware?) been open to the possibility, however unlikely, of Ivory-bill presence.

4. If Pete says this bird is a normal Pileated, then for me that just about locks it down, barring new subsequent information; if he says it's inconclusive, the debate goes on. And if he says let's go out for some pizza and beer, I'M IN....

So Pete, if you're out there somewhere working on your 45th book, and wanna take a break to write somethin' up in your inimitable style about mystery bird #3, to send along to me here, then go to it... I be gratefully waiting.

All kidding aside, there's no one's analysis I'd be more anxious to hear...
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