— Timeout —

 ———————————————————

just a place-holder of sorts… for those inquiring, I'm working on a post, maybe up on Sun., Mon., or Tues…. waiting to hear back on a couple of things from a few folks, but mainly just deciding how much I even want to write on current “news.”

Meanwhile, one small housekeeping measure: discovered some time ago a few emails in a long-abandoned email account, so please be sure that if you email me you have on file the gmail acct. I’ve used for well over a dozen years (and not some older acct. I rarely check)!:

cyberthrush@gmail.com

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-- Into May --

 ————————————————

First, I remain flabbergasted that USFWS has not published a statement (so far as I’m aware) regarding the status of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker, seemingly well-beyond the statutory deadline for them to do so. :( Something seems amiss, as the species appears to linger, from their standpoint, Schrodinger’s cat-like, half alive, half dead...

Big spike in blog traffic last 2 days -- happens sometimes about once-a-month and I often have no idea why, but this time I suspect may be related to USFWS decision.

Matt Courtman will have another free IBWO Zoom meeting this coming Monday, May 1, 8:00pm EDT (tomorrow):

https://www.facebook.com/events/716321880238113/?ref=newsfeed

Otherwise, sorry to say, I’ve seen nothing, either on the Web nor in private email, that I deem very hopeful about documentation in coming months; lot of chatter and misplaced optimism, but nothing solid; indeed much of social media is simply discouraging and exasperating at this point! Also exasperating that yet another winter  (when foliage is off the trees) has passed without good photo documentation of the species (I never have much hope in summertime). The Brits would say (scoff) that the IBWO-world is being strung along with no genuine end in sight, just incessant exaggerated promises that don't materialize.

On a complete side-note, I recently stumbled upon this memorial (I was unaware of) to Bill Pulliam, who I've mentioned here countless times before, and many/most? of you know of for his countless contributions to the Ivory-bill saga (but who died young at 56):

https://swantrust.org/bill-pulliam-memorial/

...just passing along in case you care to contribute.

Maybe more news soon... but getting hard to predict.

—————————————————

— Perhaps Of Interest (...while WAAAAITING on USFWS) —

 ——————————————————

Will post this in case of interest to anyone:

Kate Sutherland will be speaking to a North Carolina bird club this coming Monday evening (April 24, 7:15pm) about “The Fabled Cahow: Saving a Lazarus Species from Extinction” — the Cahow (a seabird, the Bermuda Petrel) was thought extinct for over 300 years before being re-discovered:

https://www.meetup.com/New-Hope-Audubon-Society/events/292750277/

This will be a Zoom meeting you can register for in advance (instructions at bottom of above page).

I wouldn’t expect the talk to have too much pertinence to the IBWO situation, other than to be interesting in its own right, and perhaps inspiring:

"Kate Sutherland will share the remarkable story of how a handful of dedicated individuals pulled the Cahow back from the brink of extinction and have turned the species into a conservation success story like no other."

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-- Twiddling Thumbs --

 —————————————————

Am patiently waiting for the USFWS to make their official announcement (already have a post written but waiting ’til I can include a link in it to their public statement).

In the meantime, for your reading entertainment I’ll just once again pass along Nobelist Richard Feynman’s classic, oft-cited “Cargo Cult Science” commencement address from almost 50 years ago:

http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.pdf

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ADDENDUM: (while awaiting a different release)

...not sure how I missed this bit of USFWS April 1st amusement, but will pass it along now:  (someone in their social media unit has been running 'humor' posts for awhile at this point) [ Correction: I see someone over on Facebook is now claiming that he was responsible for this bit of mockery, and it was NOT actually done by the hand of USFWS! ]

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ADDENDUM2:  (4/14)

A number of IBWO-related articles have come out recently and for the most part I’m avoiding the ones (almost all of them) that are basically retrospective or historical pieces — stuff that can be regurgitated over-and-over ad infinitum. I’ll make an exception though for these two new ones that I do feel hit upon some important material. The second one, from David Martin, is an especially lengthy/detailed essay including several of the same themes as the first one.

We’re reaching the end of yet another week waiting for USFWS to come off its duff and say something publicly. ;)  Sooooo, in meantime, some weekend reading:

https://tinyurl.com/muhbtnw2

https://tinyurl.com/y3f4yfep

-- A Two-fer??? --

 ———————————————--————

After dragging on and on and on, it's an odd feeling to be awaiting, in the very same week, both a de-listing decision from a Government agency, and an indictment from a grand jury. 😳

3/30/23:  So we finally have a grand jury decision out of NY late today... can't help but think just maybe that means there will be an announcement from USFWS tomorrow! (last day of the month). IF the USFWS actually slides on into April with no decision I can only read that as an indication of disagreement (infighting???) and lack of consensus for now on their part (...just my take).

————————————————————

— Drumroll….? —

————————————————————-

Most believe the USFWS will announce its decision regarding de-listing of a certain somewhat-interesting avian species this month ;)))

I suspect (with low confidence) it will choose to de-list, while still possible it might again put the decision off (choosing NOT to de-list, but to re-visit the issue a year from now). The Agency is no doubt under great pressure from many birders, conservationists, scientists, etc. to declare the Ivory-bill extinct (for too many reasons to delineate). But the smaller group of passionate and vocal “believers” have also successfully applied pressure on the decision-to-be. I’m not aware of any new significant evidence that USFWS has seen since the last batch of asked-for and publicly-presented evidence… and none of that evidence, unfortunately, truly met the especially high bar of clarity and consensus that USFWS was asking for. So if it’s a matter of sticking to their own criteria as well as bowing to pressure of a majority, again, I suspect they’ll de-list. BUUUUT, if (as could well be the case) they are concerned about potential egg-on-their-face from this decision, they may realize they risk suffering far more embarrassment (and having their competency questioned) by declaring the species extinct only to be documented later, than by delaying de-listing even if no conclusive evidence arises in the next couple of years.

I wish I knew more about the actual process of the decision: i.e. in short, how many folks are in on the decision, and must the vote be unanimous or simple majority rule (that alone making a huge difference in the potential outcome).

Ohh well, soon we’ll all know… and searches and discussion (...and hope) will continue no matter what the headline from USFWS is.

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-- Biding Time... Again --

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Hahh, maybe I should just turn this blog over to Chuck Hunter, LOL… will defer to him yet again, linking to some comments he has made over on Facebook (responding to comments by others). And again this is largely historical stuff, but still worth a gander for many: 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/posts/6190924554262256/?comment_id=6193741170647261&reply_comment_id=6193868403967871

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/posts/6190924554262256/?comment_id=6193741170647261&reply_comment_id=6194670313887680

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/posts/6190924554262256/?comment_id=6193741170647261&reply_comment_id=6194464203908291

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/posts/6190924554262256/?comment_id=6193591377328907

And as long as we're again going back in time I’ll note that Dwight Norris recently drew attention to a new-ish computerized video system for photographing/IDing bird species in flight:

https://www.identiflight.com/about-us-2

It’s called “Identiflight” and appears to be an update or evolution (different people though I think involved???) of a system called ACONE which was tried in the Arkansas Big Woods 15+ years ago. I had high hopes for it at the time it was first announced, but in the end it was unsuccessful, and indeed seemed to be out-of-commission due to issues, more than it was in operation! :(( No doubt great advancements have been made since then, but even so, as a practical matter rather doubt the new system can or will be employed for current IBWO searches.

Currently unsure if I'll have any other posts for February...?

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-- Another Tool -- ...+Addenda

 ------------------------------------------------------------

Quick note:

Dwight Norris on FB points out this 3+ year-old Nature article on the use of eDNA (environmental DNA left behind by species) for locating rare animals:

https://tinyurl.com/2gcdwjce

I believe this is (or has been) used minimally, and unsuccessfully thus far, in searches for IBWO. In any event I suspect it would more likely be a tool for helping confirm the presence of IBWO in a given locale after they have been seen or heard, rather than a tool for finding Ivory-bills in the first place.

A bit of the cautionary note from the piece:

“…the technique is yet to convince some scientists, who say eDNA results aren’t robust enough to be used as the sole basis for making environment-management decisions that can have legal implications for governments and land owners.

“Early studies that used eDNA to pinpoint specific species were criticized because of the potential for improper handling of samples to cause cross-contamination, leading to false-positive results. Scientists using the method are detecting only trace amounts of genetic material, so even minute amounts of contamination from gloves or equipment can taint the results. But proponents of the field say that the recent adoption of rigorous protocols that avoid or detect contamination have largely addressed such issues.”

Chances are by now, fairly 'rigorous protocols' are indeed in place, though there could still be problems of interpretation. I don't know to what degree cost may be a limiting factor in how extensively eDNA is employed? In any event, from my very limited reading the technique has been less successful or used with birds than other animal forms... mammals have even been detected from short-term DNA in air (though this article is inspired by use for a bird).

Here is a Wikipedia article on the subject:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_DNA

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ADDENDUM:

Am trying to keep articles not directly pertaining to IBWOs to a minimum here, but this is such a nice story (from Dwight N. again), that I’ll it pass along… about a rehabbed Pileated Woodpecker maintained in a Michigan zoo:

https://www.grmag.com/museums-attractions/zoo-introduces-norman-the-pileated-woodpecker/?fbclid=IwAR3GI-avX7CZDPBicNIounDw9Ebc2g4rt34HqDRe0PP6mZ3vwllphM4Z2r0

I’ve never given much hope to any notion of possible captive breeding for IBWOs (as done with some other endangered avian species), but this piece is at least interesting. I do wish they said more about the actual habitat and daily routine of this bird, and it will be interesting to see what it’s longevity in captivity is.

----------------------

ADDENDUM2  1/29:

A couple more longish postings by Chuck Hunter over on Facebook worth a gander:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/ivorybillnews/posts/1528420804344451/?comment_id=1529215204265011

https://www.facebook.com/groups/ivorybillnews/posts/1528420804344451/?comment_id=1529215204265011&reply_comment_id=1529221810931017

Sorry for any redundancy of linking to Chuck yet again, but so many of the knowledgeable, thoughtful, objective sources I used to rely on years ago have passed from this arena that he is one of the few left whose views I’m willing to pass along as trustworthy. These posts are mostly historical info, and I always caution about the difficulty of knowing how reliable/valid/relevant such information (based on a small sample of IBWOs) really is for any limited, remnant population still around almost 100 years later, but certainly food for thought.

------------------

ADDENDUM3  1/31:

NPR with a current audio report on the IBWO story (mostly rehash of where we're at):

https://www.kuaf.com/show/ozarks-at-large/2023-01-30/federal-extinction-declaration-decision-for-ivory-billed-woodpeckers-imminent

...the USFWS decision is likely still a couple months away, so don't read too much into the word "imminent" in the story title.

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ADDENDUM4  1/31:

Apologies for all the addenda, but am waiting for more significant news to start a new post.  The below again is recent history, old news for all well familiar with it, but definitely of interest for the many new folks entering the IBWO arena. Hat tip once again to Dwight Norris (Facebook) for referencing it, as it comes from one of the most respected, long-term IBWO searchers out there, Paul Sykes (who’s been at this for decades since the 1960s), a nice summary of his searching:

https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2039&context=usgsstaffpub&fbclid=IwAR1EUsR6ZoTTFaXJkBAOdiHTy17IWw-2omII45B8jATlAQp4LbpiIJ_9hVs

His efforts are of interest in themselves, and his conclusions are important as well, because of his experience and contacts over time. Additionally, years ago he and Steve Holzman spent significant time attempting to deduce the diagnostic features of IBWO scraping and bark scaling (as have many others) only to conclude in the end that we simply don’t know definitively how to separate IBWO work from other work… indeed, if we did, we would surely by now have a clear photo of an Ivory-bill from an automatic camera focused on such work — I’ve long argued that the failure of remote automatic cameras to capture an IBWO (rather than the failure of humans to observe them) is the single most damning evidence against IBWO survival in any given area.

By now, Steve is largely skeptical and pessimistic about IBWO survival… and he’s earned the right to that conclusion from the multifold efforts he put in. With that said, I'm sure no one would be any more excited/ecstatic were definitive proof of the bird's existence to now arise.

----------------------

ADDENDUM5 2/4:

Matt Courtman’s next monthly IBWO Zoom meeting is this Monday evening (2/6), again at 8pm EST., details here (free to join):

https://www.facebook.com/events/570295411419641/?ref=newsfeed

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ADDENDUM6  2/5:

Dwight N. has posted five more lengthy entries from Chuck Hunter on Facebook (actually the last one, #5, is an old posting from Bill Pulliam making the same point about IBWO density that Chris Haney emphasizes and makes well more recently in his volume “Woody’s Last Laugh”). 

The posts are mostly of a historical nature or commentary (much of it about ‘signs’ of IBWOs, i.e. sounds, dks, kents, flight patterns, behavior etc., but also, in #4, some reference to more recent history since 2005); certainly worth reading for those unfamiliar with much of it. I think #3, with the Reynard information, is the most interesting of the bunch:

#1 https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156630967691615/

#2  https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156644977690214/

#3  https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156661604355218/

#4  https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156674251020620/

#5  https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156682907686421/

The historical information is great and (with caution) instructive, but what I'm still hopeful for within the next say 5 weeks is perhaps some more and better publicly-released evidence....

-- 2023 Underway --

 ------------------------------------------------------------

Many of us believe that the drone footage shared by Project Principalis awhile back (with USFWS) is the best recent evidence of an extant Ivory-billed Woodpecker to emerge recently. Chuck Hunter (one of the foremost experts on IBWOs, retired from USFWS) has now given his analysis of it on a Facebook group, and it is worth reading. It coincides closely with my own view of that footage. I'm less confident of some of his points (and he is appropriately cautious), but am in accord with the basic conclusion that the bird seems to be either an IBWO or some sort of leucistic PIWO — I expressed that view quite awhile back here on the blog, and also did so recently in private communication with another individual.  Some will likely continue to try to argue the bird may be a Red-headed Woodpecker or possibly even a non-woodpecker species, all of which seem eliminated in my view.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6088471191174260/

The post includes one of the enhanced/zoomed versions of the drone footage for viewing.  Even in this form it is, as seems agonizingly always the case, difficult to feel completely certain about several details when so many variables are in play. Also, be sure to read Chuck's lengthy comment to his own post-comment -- it gets quite into the weeds of the old arguments that used to be more commonplace in this arena, and I would almost say have faded away since Bill Pulliam passed (like myself, Chuck gives Bill a lot of credit for earlier work done in this debate). He also mentions Louis Bevier who was a prestigious and active skeptic at the time, but who, for reasons I won't get into, left the whole debate and is unlikely to comment on any new evidence or information (not sure if he even follows it any longer).

...In other news, if you're not already aware of it, Matt Courtman holds another Monday evening Zoom meeting (free) this Monday at 8pm EST. He has also posted an update of his current search in the Tensas area. You can visit his Mission Ivorybill page for more details:

https://www.facebook.com/MissionIvorybill

 ------------------------------------------------------------

ADDENDUM  1/18/23

Handful of folks are dropping me notes/links lately about various matters that I’m already familiar with… most of which I won't spend time addressing, unless more precision, detail, consistency, credibility, accuracy, reliability, transparency, and rigor is added to the issues involved, and major problems relieved. Am glad to see Chuck Hunter weigh in elsewhere (maybe futilely ;) to add some sanity to a few of the matters (he has more patience than I do!). ...And I’ll simply add that people ought understand how eBird works/functions before making nonsensical/embarrassing submissions there. Shooting oneself in the foot is not usually a good look.

As we approach the time USFWS will make a determination I hope we don't enter an utter clownshow stage...

— Biding Time Again —

 -------------------------------------------------------------

New year, so feel like I oughta post something!... Several damp, gray, cold days had me stuck inside at the computer recently, just looking at or playing around with a few numbers. I may be way off on some of these, so feel free to correct if you have more updated or accurate information...

As best I could roughly estimate (from online sources):

National Audubon Society has ~600,000 members (I assume most of those are North American, but don’t really know the breakdown)

American Birding Association (ABA) membership is around 20,000 (again don’t know the breakdown worldwide), although this figure seemed oddly low to me??? (so someone got a better figure?)

Cornell Lab of Ornithology  ~75,000 members

worldwide estimate for those on eBird: 200,000, probably with at least a quarter of those North American?

…again, all verrrry rough figures, so feel free to correct... but anyway, needless to say, a lot of folks interested to varying degrees in birds.

Finally, on social media there are well over 6000 folks following sites devoted to the Ivory-billed Woodpecker; though not necessarily all are IBWO enthusiasts.  Some of those would be full-fledged skeptics who only follow along to monitor what is being stated (or misstated) on such sites; and some are folks who think the species is most likely extinct, but still hold out some slim hope. Others are simply interested in cryptids in general, so include IBWO among their follows. The remainder, maybe perhaps 4000, could be “true believers” or so-called “IBWO-truthers” who think (or even feel certain) that the species exists. Worth noting though that most of those 4000-or-so are almost certainly NOT serious or long-time, experienced birders (some are, but not most)… as indicated if one follows much of the serious birding community on a site like Twitter or a birding forum the derision for IBWO-belief remains pretty broad-based and growing. The treatment of Matt Courtman by his own Louisiana active-birding community is another indication, as is the treatment, for that matter, of almost any claimant by the wider birding community (…that treatment being anything from shunning to snickering at, and a whole lot of eye-rolling). In large part both the 'believer' and 'skeptic' communities reside now in their own self-contained, self-reinforcing bubbles.

So once again, unless new, significant evidence is introduced (and, that could happen!…) the USFWS bureaucracy will soon be weighing the voices of a small, highly vocal group versus an increasingly impatient throng of knowledgeable birders and conservationists… and making a decision… a decision that will have no bearing whatsoever on whether the IBWO actually exists, but could have bearing on the perceptions of any few remaining who are still neutral on the subject... while no doubt also spurring further contentious debate over the "evidence" that already exists (such as it is). It would be great to be a fly on the wall at the USFWS proceedings/discussions. I have no idea how many folks are in on those talks, nor whether their final decision must be unanimous or simply majority-rule. Meanwhile, IF an IBWO nestsite is to be found we are approaching the time of year it ought happen (...as I've probably said for 16 years in a row now ;)

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ADDENDUM  1/7:

Just a quick note, since Dwight Norris on Facebook just posted this nice clip of a Pileated at work:

https://youtube.com/shorts/6N0dxqfxLMU?feature=share

I used to get pics sent to me, with some regularity, of trees with multiple large woodpecker holes, but just so folks know, this is completely typical for PIWO and not at all typical of IBWO. Examples from the Web:

(in 15 years, I’ve probably had less than 5 pics sent to me that I thought were even possible IBWO cavities... foraging/bark-scaling work is a little more interesting, though also hugely difficult to interpret from photos... and automatic cameras focused on putative foraging work has never captured a clear IBWO).

-----------------------------------------------------------

-- Bye To 2022 --

 ------------------------------------------------------------

Was planning to post at very end of month, but since there's a new Washington Post article out today (mostly on the Latta/Michaels search and re-iteration of their confidence) I'll just dump all this now (hope you can open the link):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/12/19/ivory-billed-woodpecker-extinct/

Feel like I end each year in recent times thinking that surely there MUST be definitive evidence of IBWOs next year or it's time to pack up this tent and go home (at least for the time being). Brits sometimes call those of us keeping stories like this alive, "stringers," for tossing out just enough crumbs to keep dragging the public along. Many interested parties have left the IBWO arena by now at the very same time that many newbies have entered it... with the enticing 'crumbs' still being regularly tossed about. My guess (once again) is that next year may well be crucial to any resolution (...or, NOT, haha). Would also guess that early in the year USFWS will choose to de-list, but that was my guess last go-around, so what do I know! (they will be roundly booed, no matter which decision they make!)...  

The sorts of evidence and arguments that are regularly put forth now could fairly easily continue for a couple more decades... except that nobody wants that. And given the relatively small-scale and sporadic nature of current searches I'm not confident of the likelihood of success, but luck or lightning only need strike once; one really fine video, one active nesthole located, one recently-deceased carcass discovered, to change the narrative... So onward to 2023.... 

As far as some folks writing me to ask about South Carolina, I won’t go into muddy details or back-and-forth arguments other than to re-voice my personal view (unless/until significant evidence persuades otherwise), that IBWOs are most likely extirpated from S.C. (and Texas also, with 7 other states though remaining more likely).

...And thanks to all who send in thoughts, ideas, "evidence," questions, etc. etc. throughout the year, even if I don't always find time to respond (trying to limit my time on this subject until real news warrants the time/effort).

Meanwhile, down at bottom a few miscellaneous examples from over the years of photoshopped, or otherwise non-living IBWOs, that give a hint of how readily a faked photo can be achieved...

But otherwise maybe just sign off to 2022 with this: ;)

 ------------------------------------------------------------

ADDENDA  12/22:

Will toss out just a couple more items/videos for perusal:

Matt Courtman got some further publicity on a local TV station for his efforts:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vU6sed1P7rM

Searcher Mike Collins takes issue with the Latta/Michaels interpretation of the drone video they released earlier (Mike thinks it’s a definite, normal Pileated vs. possibility of IBWO):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8x_oY2F2nU

I don’t agree fully with Mike’s analysis here, but present this for the sake of pointing out that, unlike the unanimity some presume on the part of so-called “IBWO Truthers” there are actually a number of disagreements.

I tentatively lean toward the bird being either an IBWO or a leucistic PIWO (...and there are those who still think it a Red-headed Woodpecker). I would urge folks who wish to analyze it further to try and find one of the enlarged/enhanced copies of the video to view. But no desire here to debate back-and-forth what the bird is; simply waiting instead for a video that requires no debate or analysis.

-----------------------------------

ADDENDA2  12/24:

since I've started Addenda, may as well ramble on with a couple more:

1)  a reader sends me this li'l history of the Singer Tract I don't recall seeing before:

https://sites.rootsweb.com/~lamadiso/articles/singer.htm

2)  Some discussion of acoustic data over on FB lately, but a lingering problem is simply the lack of any "control" data-set; i.e. ideally we need to have ARUs (sound-recording devices) set up for an extended period in the deep woods of places like New Hampshire or Washington state or Montreal etc. (where there are no IBWOs) and then analyzed to see how many kent and DK-like sounds appear on those tapes, and whether they can be spectrographically (and diagnostically) distinguished from the relatively small (barely significant) sample of known IBWO sounds we have on record. Putative sounds can be interesting, but primarily only when they end up coming in conjunction with sightings, and less-so as stand-alone data.

As I noted elsewhere recently, by now IF the IBWO is ever fully documented what will be most significant of all is not the re-discovery, but rather what it exposes about the lack of rigor and science in ornithology that permitted the species to go missing over decades in the first place.

---------------------------------

ADDENDA3 12/29:

Another news site has now re-run this story carried previously by CNN, without (so far as I can tell) giving credit to the earlier reporter or site:

https://divya-bharat.com/ivory-billed-woodpecker-extinct-courtman-climate-ctpr/

---------------------------------