-- "Why Most.... " --

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" There is increasing concern that in modern research, false findings may be the majority or even the vast majority of published research claims." -- Dr. John P.A. Ioannidis

I've had a link to this famous, often-cited JPA Ioannidis article in the left-hand column for about 5 years running, but perhaps it's worthwhile to draw more attention to it now --- Ioannidis's concerns are sometimes focused primarily on medical/clinical research (see this The Atlantic article), though much of what he details applies across the life sciences more generally, and on occasion, the physical sciences as well:

http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124

...and, a little more here: http://tinyurl.com/ygmupbc
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"Huhh, what? ...did I just hear an Ivory-billed Woodpecker"

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^
^...The New Yorker cartoon contest caption that SHOULDA been:

http://tinyurl.com/3nkfrzs

Also, this recent older (long) New Yorker piece by John McPhee on the Atchafalaya River may interest some:

http://tinyurl.com/8jqukp
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-- Just a Couple of Paradoxes --

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A classic old paradox from mathematics:

Suppose you glue a dime to the very middle of a half-dollar (creating two attached concentric coins), and then roll the half-dollar along a tabletop to make one complete turn. At that point the half-dollar (back at its starting point) will have covered a distance equal to its own circumference, AND the inner dime will also have completed one full turn, seemingly having moved ITS circumference in length... except of course the dime and quarter don't have equal circumferences.

Or, for a different, more geometric paradox see this old chestnut proving that the two sides of any right triangle, when added together, equal the hypotenuse:

http://tinyurl.com/5szrqbj
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-- "Ghost Bird" on TV --

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Sorry for the late notice, but received emails this morning that apparently Scott Crocker's "Ghost Bird" film made its debut on television last night on the "Documentary Channel;" a good opportunity for those who haven't had a chance to see it at an indie festival to take it in. I don't own a TV myself and don't know if the Documentary Channel replays its offerings or this was a one-time showing(?), nor if it will be on the Web anytime in near-future?
Addendum: in a comment below Christopher notes that the next scheduled showing of Ghost Bird on Documentary Channel appears to be this coming Friday, May 20.
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-- Wingbeats... --

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Note: Google's Blogger platform was down for 48+ hours (making the posting of new blogposts or comments un-doable), but appears to be working once again....

Generally speaking throughout the avian kingdom, larger birds have slower wingbeat frequencies than their smaller cousins. Louis Bevier's original 2007 analysis for PIWO vs. IBWO wingbeat frequency follows in that vein, for any who haven't seen it:

http://web.mac.com/lrbevier/ivorybilled/Wingbeat.html

There is NO firm data for what the range of wingbeat frequency for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker should be. None, just speculative conjecture. The one specific piece of old Singer Tract audio (of a bird flapping) that is sometimes alluded to for analysis is useless and meaningless, with no accompanying video to know WHAT is even doing the flapping --- but even presuming it is an Ivory-billed Woodpecker it is at least as likely that the bird is merely flapping to maintain balance on a tree, or fending off an intruder/interloper, than a recording of actual flight (though it may be 'hopping' from one branch to a nearby one). This specific area of analysis is fraught with problems and assumptions (and uncontrolled variables), but I believe Bevier's analysis, in this instance, is as good as is out there. Thusly, for now, I'm more interested in video clips of purported IBWOs that show birds flying below or at the low end of the purported range for PIWO wingbeat frequency (which also is not well-established).

But short of a truly definitive photo or video (requiring no analysis, beyond proof of authenticity), what I'd really like to see at this point are more high quality and lengthy sightings that come from multiple experienced, credible observers (lone observer claims simply are not taken seriously by most of the birding establishment at this point), and preferably, then, repeated by others (photos, video can come later, if at all).
So far, it ain't happenin' :-(
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-- Pearl River Findings (a bit long) --

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"Mathematics is a powerful means to win arguments because people have a strong feeling that mathematics is objective, that "figures cannot lie." The truth is that it is easy to mislead and obfuscate a situation through the use of mathematical and statistical models that are inappropriate, whose assumptions are simplistic, or just plain wrong." -- mathematician W. Byers

I'd planned to avoid this whole subject, but since Mike Collins has blanketed news sites with a press release of his Pearl River findings (in turn causing several emails to me), it seems increasingly unavoidable, especially since so many news venues are treating as new evidence, what is largely a rehash of previously-considered data. I encourage people, and especially scientists, to read Mike's article and view/listen to his video/audio tapes (and he has more material at his website), and decide for themselves....

The journal article is available for free here: http://tinyurl.com/3rutguj

You can go to this abstract page to link to some of Mike's referenced video/audio clips:

http://tinyurl.com/3h2uxx6

The current article is the latest culmination of a lot of reporting from Mike over the last few years beginning with his run-ins with folks at BirdForum.net. Let's just say that Mike has developed a propensity for publishing evidence with a degree of certainty that appears unwarranted (what William Byers would call "pseudo-objectivity through quantification").

His brief initial 2006 video did intrigue me a great deal at that time, and he reports several more sighting claims in the current article. However, lone self-report is never a strong basis for scientific conclusions, especially on a controversial subject. The strength of prior Cornell and Auburn reports was that they came from multiple observers in the same locale. Over the last dozen years many, many individuals have looked for IBWOs in the Pearl River area without success, while Mike keeps claiming encounters --- I grant that he has spent a tremendous amount of time there (and has access to certain areas that others don't have), and occasionally reports other individuals, under his tutelage seeing the species (although I've never seen a submitted full-account by any of those other individuals). And I admire Mike's dogged persistence, but given the public viewpoints he has espoused, Mike is now so vested in his own opinions/pronouncements, that his personal objectivity simply can't be assumed. Indeed, one of the flying Pearl River birds he filmed in 2009, turned out, on further analysis, to be a Red-headed Woodpecker (a bird not even half the size of an IBWO), despite his implication that it could be an Ivory-bill... perhaps indicative of the magnitude of a subjective bias.

But on to the current paper (and I'll only hit on a few points):

1) We now have 100s (perhaps 1000s) of reports of "kent" calls from deep woods, yet still no ability to definitively identify by recording (let alone by human ear) those kent calls that emanate from Ivory-billed Woodpeckers. All of Mike's verbal reports of kent calls are thus of little scientific value, although it is good when they come in conjunction with sightings, but those too are merely one-man verbal reports with no confirmation (and his recorded calls are, at best, inconclusive, no matter what sonograms show). The same fate befalls double-knocks, large cavities, and bark-scaling data --- these are interesting when found in close conjunction with good sightings, but by themselves remain weak evidence for Ivory-bills when presented in the literature. Many of Mike's "sightings" are cloaked in few details (how much time, what distance, what field marks, in what kind of light, etc.), again resulting in little more than shallow verbal claims (although he labels two sightings "of exceptional quality," whatever that means). His central focus in this paper seems to simply be on a few high-pitched calls and inconclusive double-knocks.

2) His discussion of the "high-pitched" calls, which he turns into putative Ivory-billed calls, is highly speculative, given that only a single brief reference by Tanner even hints that IBWOs ever make such sounds (and without a tape from Tanner there's no way of knowing if what Mike recorded even remotely resembles what Tanner heard). He then compares this unknown call to "putative kent calls" from Florida --- in other words he compares an unknown call with an unknown call and expects to derive some conclusion from that! (he does the same thing at a later point meaninglessly comparing a "putative double-knock" from the Pearl with a "putative double-knock" from Florida --- comparing two unknowns to each other is of little value; an unknown needs to be compared to a known/certain sample --- his related assumptions about the harmonic structure of IBWO calls, which he ties his sounds to, is based on a tiny sample size recorded on old equipment).
Also, the direction and distance of calls/sounds in deep woods can be notoriously difficult to establish or follow, but Mike assumes in one instance that he has followed the high-pitched calls accurately and can safely link them to a rapidly moving bird he presumes might, perhaps, possibly, in his judgment, be an Ivory-bill.

3) Mike's second video is his 2008 encounter with what appeared initially to be a Wood Duck, except that on further after-the-fact video analysis turns out, lo-and-behold, God-bless, to be an Ivory-billed Woodpecker! This is the bird that, according to Mike, revealed "a flap style that is radically different from what was expected for this species [IBWO]." Mike makes a big deal (as a new discovery) out of the fact that his bird folds its wings in-close during flight, claiming that old reports of the Ivory-bill having a "duck-like" flight style imply stiff-flapping (outstretched) wings... but this is simply erroneous. Previous historical accounts of "duck-like" flight for the IBWO are in reference to the fast, straight, direct, level flight path of the Ivory-bill (unlike the undulating flight of many woodpeckers), NOT its flap style, which could, like most woodpeckers, be presumed to include the closed wing periods --- absolutely NOTHING new or significant here --- in fact, Audubon reported the folded-in wings over 150 years ago, but Mike presents this as some grand NEW finding on his part!

4) In figure 4 Mike uses a a graph from Tobalske to compare data from a single Pileated Woodpecker to his 2008 video bird. For starters, using a single bird (with no context given) for comparison represents too small a sample size to be empirically meaningful, let alone conclusive, and I'd say that even if he was comparing his bird to a House Sparrow!! But even worse, the scales for the x-axis don't even match (time in ms) in the 2 graphs, making direct comparison difficult if not misleading (unless I'm missing something, and maybe I am). Further, no scales whatsoever are even presented for the y-axis, so no telling how different they may be!???.

Quantification, or application of mathematics, is a common practice to make weak data (or even junk science) appear scientifically stronger. Mike's videos are of poor quality and no amount of analysis changes that. If he is off, even a small amount, in any number of the initial measurements he calculates from these videos, than his end-point calculated numbers can be waaaay off. Additionally, Pileated flap rate and flight speed may vary from individual to individual and situation to situation (since we have little data), by whether it is a young bird or old, a gravid female, or a juvenile, or a cruising, fleeing, or chasing male, or an injured bird for that matter, or a bird dodging obstacles, or a startled bird, or flying into a head wind or pushed along by a tail wind... i.e. the variables are MANY, yet Mike's data set (and most data sets on both IBWO and PIWO) is very limited and simplistic. He no doubt thinks he can put a limiting range on such data for the PIWO, and then place his bird outside that range (even though we have no good flight data, beyond conjecture, for IBWO either); I don't think he can do that with available data.
One is left to wonder who, if anyone, peer-reviewed Mike's article, and if the editor of the acoustics journal it appears in has any significant comprehension of the subject matter.... (is it any surprise that no professional ornithological journal would touch this paper).

I'm skimming the surface here, but I think you get the point... the science presented is weak, and all the more-so, given no way to independently corroborate much of what Mike reports in print. Moreover, Mike's statements and behavior from the past have yielded him little credibility in much of the birding community (...and I understand that well because this blog has bestowed me with little credibility in much of the birding community!! ;-)), but he and I brought that upon ourselves; it is not the fault of others. As a result, no serious birding listserv, forum, or Website is much covering his recent publication (lest they be mocked for doing so), NOT even the Louisiana listserv!

As always, I believe it is possible that Ivory-bills may pass through the Pearl River region from nearby areas on occasion (I'm doubtful they breed or reside there), and I wish Mike luck in producing evidence that will demonstrate their presence to everyone's satisfaction. I'm not sure though that he comprehends what is necessary to accomplish that at this point; the bar is set very, VERY high (if he ever does document IBWOs conclusively he'll deserve immense gratitude from the birding community for incredible perseverance and hard work, but until then, well....). Over the decades 1000's of reports of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers have come in, the vast majority of which pretty quickly fall apart, and most of the rest never panning out upon follow-up. Time will tell, perhaps, if Mike's Pearl River claims are any different, or just more-more-more-of-the-same. For now, my Ivory-bill hopes reside elsewhere.

(p.s. -- if you're someone who hasn't seen the recent Pearl River IBWO news reports on the Web, and have no clue what this entire post is about... well, then... nnnnnnnnevermind!)

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-- PIWO Rehabilitation --

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No real Ivory-bill news to speak of, so on a different matter... A bird-rehabber friend of mine (near the Ark. Big Woods by coincidence) is currently raising a pair of young Pileated Woodpeckers (~10 days old when she got them) and found this wonderful old piece (pdf) on the Web regarding the early life cycle of Pileated nestlings:

http://elibrary.unm.edu/sora/Auk/v061n03/p0376-p0384.pdf

Interestingly, it was published back in 1944, in the same era of major Ivory-bill study. But if, by chance, anyone knows of more modern studies of Pileated nestling development please pass them along to me, so I can pass the info along to her (she's raised/rehabbed many birds, but never PIWOs).
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-- Another Searcher Interviewed --

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Better late than never... just received back one of the "interview" forms I'd sent out long ago (giving me some hope that maybe some of the others who originally said they might participate may yet get back to me... hint, hint ;-).
John Puschock is an active west coast birder and tour leader, known to many of you via his participation in various forums. He occasionally communicated with me over the first few years of the IBWO search, and I was always interested in his take on matters, as he took part in several different searches. Here are the questions I posed to him many months ago, with his answers:

1. CT: First, to give the readers some context, can you say where all you have searched for Ivory-bills over the last 5 years, either on your own or as part of a team?

JP: I was part of the 2004-2005 and 2005-2006 (part-time only) Cornell search teams and Auburn 2007 (part-time only) teams. Also I independently spent a week on the Choctawhatchee in Sept 2006 before those sightings became public knowledge, and I spent a few hours at the Pearl River back in 2000. (I was passing through the area so I figured I'd take a look.) Overall, about 8 months spent looking.

2. CT: By now, a lot of folks, including some who began as optimists, are pretty pessimistic over the chances of IBWO persistence. How do you personally view the probabilities that any Ivory-bills still exist somewhere in the U.S.?

JP: Extremely low and probably extinct but it doesn't hurt to keep looking (though I'm not advocating allocating a big chunk of public funds towards the effort).

3. CT: Can you say which sightings/claims over the last 6 years you found the most compelling?

JP: All the sightings are equally compelling, or non-compelling depending on if your a glass-half-full or glass-half-empty kind of person.

4. CT: From your experience with the official searches did you see any specific flaws/weaknesses in the conduct of the search that can account for the inability to document the species IF it was present?

JP: I don't have any substantial criticisms of the search methods. Walking/boating transects to look for roost holes may not have been the most productive thing to do, but I understand the initial reasoning behind it. It was a good idea at first when an Ivory-billed was suspected as being in a small restricted area (Bayou de View).
For those who criticize the search methods, keep in mind that just about everything you can think of was tried, starting with a passive approach. Cornell started out with a small number of people being as quiet and stealthy as possible and then built up to more "aggressive" methods. It wasn't like they walked in from Day One with a huge army banging on trees, doing playbacks, etc. It's really easy to Monday morning quarterback the search methods. No matter what Cornell or Auburn did, they were going to be criticized for doing the "wrong" thing if they didn't get positive results, i.e., photos, which obviously is what happened.

5. CT: Did you have any interesting personal experiences during all your searches that particularly got you excited or gave you specific hope for the Ivory-bill's presence? Or were there any unexpected surprises (good or bad) that stand out from your travels/searches over the last 5 years?

JP: Essentially, no, nothing happened involving a bird that got me excited, at least not for more than about 5 seconds. Very early on in the first year, I found some interesting scaling, but nothing came of it and subsequently I came to believe that there's no real value in looking for "IBWO" scaling. I imagine there's way too much variability in woodpecker foraging techniques for there to be something to look for that's unique to Ivory-billeds.

6. CT: Short of some future credible claim, are you planning any further active searches for the species at this point?

JP: No. I never did any searching that wasn't based on a previous report, and I was only able to spend the time searching that I did because I was being paid and didn't have any other obligations. Nowadays, it would have to be a very solid report to even make me think about searching to justify spending the time and money on the effort. WIth that said, if I was living in the IBWO's historical range, I'd probably do a little looking, particularly in areas hit by tornadoes a year or two previously.

7. CT: From your time/experience/knowledge is there anything additional you would want to pass along to my readers that you think they should know about or understand?

JP: IT'S EXTINCT....probably.

CT: Thanks for your perspective John... it won't make you the most popular interviewee ever here ;-), but I know it's the result of a lot of first-hand experience and effort.
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-- Ode to a Ghost --

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While biding time, this older elegy to the Ivory-bill from poet Susan Wood:

http://www.nereview.com/27-4/wood.html
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-- Spring Shopping --

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Seen in someone's backyard, perhaps:

http://www.birdfeedershoppe.com/proddetail.asp?prod=PD52698

or, from Amazon: http://tinyurl.com/6flvgbe
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-- Another Testimonial --

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Speaking of Arthur Allen, one of the responses I got when I asked for people's memories of what drew them to the Ivory-bill story decades ago, came from Chris Feeney of Georgia, who credited Allen with spurring his childhood interest. Chris's account ran as follows:

"I have had an interest in the Ivory-billed Woodpecker since I was eight years old. My grandmother along with my aunt got me interested in birds. I spent every summer on my grandparents farm near Indiana, Pennsylvania. In 1954 my grandmother got a copy of "Stalking Birds with Color Camera" by Arthur A. Allen. I looked at all the color photos, but the bird that drew my attention more than any other was the black and white photo of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. My grandmother also had the National Geographic books that had the account of Allen's visit to the Singer Tract and his teams subsequent location of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker nest. When we visited the Carnegie Museum in Pittsburgh, the Ivory-billed specimens were always the highlight.

In 1958 my grandmother and a friend decided to take a trip around the country while they were still able to travel. My grandfather had passed away, and my grandmother wanted to visit some of the great National Parks again. I went along. Even though it was a "tourist" trip, bird watching was a priority. We stopped at a number of places with museums. One of these was in Hastings, Nebraska. I was very surprised to see a display with several Ivory-billed Woodpeckers. After a journey that took us all the way to British Columbia and down the coast to California, we stopped at the Grassy Lake Hunt Club near Hope, Arkansas on the way home. This spot was in "A Guide to Bird Finding" by Olin S. Pettingill, Jr. We checked in with the caretaker's wife, and birded the area for a bit. I got my life Anhinga there, so I was excited. It was a very hot day. The caretaker's wife invited us in for some lemonade. She got us our drinks, and then pulled out Chester A. Reed's bird guide. She turned to the page that had the Pileated Woodpecker and said "We have these all around". I would have loved to see one, as it also would have been a life bird. Then she turned a few more pages and showed us the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. I was stunned when she said "You know, we have had a few of these here as well". She clearly knew the difference.

I have been chasing the Ivory-bill off and on since then. I was not able to go to Texas in the 1960's to look for the birds in Big Thicket, as I was in school in California at the time. However, I wrote all the experts at the time for information on the Ivory-bill. I have letters from Dr. James Tanner, Dr. George Lowery, Mr. Whitney Eastman (who sent me a copy of his article "My 10 Year Search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker", and also Mr. John Dennis. I corresponded with Mr. Dennis in the 1980's when the Ivory-bill was reported in the Atchafalaya Basin. He got me linked up with a person who worked at LSU and knew the locals in the area. With his help I was able to spend 9 days looking for the Ivory-bill, and also got to examine the Ivory-bill specimens in the LSU collection.

Since the Arkansas sightings I have spent field time in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, South Carolina, and Florida searching. I feel strongly I have heard the bird in both Arkansas and Florida (calls, no double knocks). No good sightings though, but I keep looking.

It all started with the photo on page 2 of 'Stalking Birds with Color Camera'."

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-- WWAAD --

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Perhaps it's karmic... I'd recently been thinking of doing a blog post inquiring "What would Arthur Allen do?," regarding past ornithological icon Arthur A. Allen (Ivory-bill-documenter, and founder of the Cornell Lab of Ornithology). But I'll forgo my idle thoughts in favor of just linking to Stephen Lyn Bales' latest post which also briefly alludes to Allen's notions here:

http://ivorybillwoodpecker.blogspot.com/2011/04/arthur-allens-early-views-on-vanishing.html
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-- Of Camels and Thoroughbreds --

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A camel, it has been said, is 'a horse designed by a committee'. . . . .

Traditionally, April/May are the last 2 months for much Ivory-bill searching before the heat/humidity/bugs of summer preclude much deep woods activity. And I don't foresee anything on the horizon likely to alter how things stand at this point. Indeed, in 5 years of reports coming into my email in addition to what shows up on the Web, I just haven't seen anything terribly convincing since the original Big Woods and Choctawhatchee reports... plenty of intriguing stories/claims certainly, but nothing really compelling, in my view, from any single locale. I'll await to see what Cornell has to say in their final report on the subject, but not expecting any more insights there than what is already in print.
IF confirmation of IBWOs ever comes I suspect it is liable to be sudden and unexpected, without much news leading up to it.

So why the camel???... I've long thought that the scarcity of results achieved by Tanner, and Jackson, and countless others along the way, was simply due to a lack of manpower and resources. If only a large-scale, organized, systematic search for IBWOs was conducted throughout the Southeast, Ivory-bills would be documented to everyone's satisfaction, in a reasonable amount of time... so I thought... Multiple Government and University-backed personnel with money, equipment, and training surely could accomplish what had eluded lone searchers. BUT, they haven't. Though independents can search more stealthily and make quicker decisions, than a large team, I still believe they are hampered tremendously by the sheer immensity of the task, short of a very HOT, hot-zone being found.
One has to wonder at this point though, given the results, if IBWO-searching-by-large-committee is itself an inherently flawed-and-bumbling approach (I don't think so, but it did have problems/issues, and I'm left to wonder). In any event, it is largely up to a steadily-decreasing cadre of independents now. I just wish Cornell or USFWS could direct them specifically where best to expend their limited time and energy out of the still many interesting, potential locales... but as best I can tell, after 6 years of study, sadly, they barely have any clue themselves.
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-- Pelagic Ghost Bird --

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Paul Hess reports at the ABA Blog on another 'bird of hope,' the Bermuda Petrel, a long-distance flier, once thought extinct, now recovering though still very scarce:

http://blog.aba.org/2011/03/a-bird-of-hope-a-mystery-solved.html
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-- "Passion" to "Melancholy" --

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Haven't heard a whole lot publicly from Tim Gallagher (one of the original early Big Woods sighters of the IBWO, and author of "The Grail Bird") since the story has dragged on, but he is interviewed as the first second (about 6 mins. in) story in this recent Web podcast:

http://podcast.cbc.ca/mp3/dnto_20110326_47229.mp3

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-- Leucistic PIWO in PA. --

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Wow! Corey at "10000 Birds" blog reports on a gorgeously leucistic Pileated Woodpecker from Pennsylvania here:

http://10000birds.com/leucistic-pileated-woodpecker.htm

...not a specimen that could ever be confused with an IBWO, but just a splendid individual in its own right... wonder what the parents and any sibs looked like?
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-- Collins Speaking --

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Sorry for the late notice, but just received the info that Mike Collins is giving a free talk later this afternoon at the University of Mississippi, on his IBWO work in the Pearl:

http://events.olemiss.edu/events/index.php?com=detail&eID=33210

If anyone catches the talk, feel free to report to us how it went...

ADDENDUM: ...additionally, a reader informs me that Mike recently published a paper on some of his work in "The Journal of the Acoustical Society of America," the abstract for which is here:

http://tinyurl.com/4jedaqm

Further Addendum: there is a link to a pdf copy of Mike's paper (for personal use) on the 3-21-11 entry to his webpage: http://www.fishcrow.com/winter11.html (update: the link & 3/21 posting have now been removed, but the paper can still be viewed here: http://tinyurl.com/3so7oos or here: http://www.fishcrow.com/JASAv129p1626.pdf )
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-- Louisiana Update --

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"Project Coyote" in La. posts a new update to their work, linked to from this page (March 17):

http://www.south-run.com/coyote/updates.htm

It includes VERY faint double-knock recording and pics of some further bark-scaling.

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