Sunday, April 19, 2009

-- Words and Such --

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During a recent exhaustive triple-tiered, double-blind-controlled, meta-linguistic, full Fourier-analysis of the major extant Ivory-bill literature, I tallied the following
textual word-frequencies in use:

Most Common Words Used By True-believers:

1. Patience

2. Hope

3. Wary

4. Luneau video

5. Encounter
6. Rare
7. Scaling
8. Putative

9. Kents
10. Wingbeats

Most Common Words Used By Cynics:

1. Extinct
2. Proof

3. Not

4. Pileated

5. Bigfoot

6. Photograph
7. Faith-based
8. Inconclusive
9. Blurry
10. Occam's Razor


10 words or phrases thus far notably MISSING from the IBWO literature:


1. que sera sera

2. supercalifragilisticexpialidocious

3. indubitably
4. just kidding
5. %$*&%#*!! friggin' woodpecker (...well, verbally spoken, but not in the printed literature)
6. beam me up Scotty
7. outwit, outplay, outlast
8. liar, liar, pants on fire
9. 6-pack abs
10. new and improved

More words, no doubt, still to come. . . .

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Friday, April 17, 2009

-- Four Years Later --

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"Oh life is like a maze of doors and they all open from the side you're on
Just keep pushin' hard boy, try as you may
You're gonna wind up where you started from
You're gonna wind up where you started from."

--- Cat Stevens ("Sitting," 1972)


This month marks the fourth anniversary since Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology stunned the birding community announcing that the Ivory-billed Woodpecker had been rediscovered in Arkansas. Yet many remain in doubt as to whether it was real or all an illusion from the get-go.

In the bizarro world of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker not only is a lack of sightings perceived as evidence of IBWO extinction... but even continuous sightings, and appropriate sounds, signs, and cavities, WHEN unaccompanied by indisputable photography, is now viewed as further evidence of extinction.

The only possible definite outcome from these last four years would've been clear confirmation of the species' existence. Lacking that we remain in limbo. There can never be proof that Ivory-bills went extinct in the 1940's as many weakly contend, or in the 60's, 70's, or 90's as some others may believe... or perhaps the "Elvis" bird seen in Arkansas was the very last of his kind. Or... as many STIIIIIIILL believe (and is certainly indicated)... a small scattering of the species may yet haunt corners of the American Southeast... caught thus far only in occasional quick glances, by a lucky few individuals in the uncanny right place at the uncanny right moment, for a species that evades the certainty of the focused camera lens.
The bird continues to be reported, and no actual evidence, beyond sheer conjecture, substantiates a notion that all of those sightings are unreal. Unfortunately, in IBWO circles, the line between conjecture and science barely exists anymore... if it ever did.
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Thursday, April 16, 2009

-- 'Accomplishments....' --

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US Fish and Wildlife has released an "Accomplishments Report 2008" (pdf) for the IBWO search --- I assume this is the long overdue official summary report for the '07 - '08 search season, such as it is (or maybe this is just a summary, of that summary?). On a first reading, appears to be pretty much o-o-o-old news by now, with a few added details and numbers fleshed out (maybe I'll say more about it later after a second reading, though not necessarily).

Addendum: just a few further notes about the report... for the '07 - '08 season South Carolina is reported to have had the most "potential encounters" (20); western Tennessee is deemed worthy of further effort (which it got this season); not much found in the Big Thicket of east Texas and the search there is set to conclude this month; the only searching reported in Florida is Auburn's efforts in the Choctawhatchee area --- a bit odd since there are so many other regions of interest in central and southern Fla., at least some of which got some attention this season. And finally, no mention at all of Mississippi except for the Cornell mobile team's brief look there, even though that state too clearly has areas of interest.

Found it interesting as well that in reference to various ongoing research taking place, the report mentions that, "An important issue that the research will address is the potential limiting influence of predation on the productivity of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker population." ...Given the difficulty of just consistently finding and photographing the birds, seems pretty early to be much concerned with 'predation' issues just now; if the species has made it to today they've done so without much micro-management from us. Pretty clearly what they need is continued habitat conservation and limits to human encroachment on that habitat. Any human interventions beyond that could have unforeseen ramifications.
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Tuesday, April 14, 2009

-- 'nuther Interlude --

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Scientist at play:




"
Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts."
-- Richard Feynman, 1966

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Sunday, April 12, 2009

-- News Article --

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Milwaukee Examiner news article HERE, including a couple of old YouTube videos at end.

Rich Guthrie's first update since traveling to Arkansas, on his blog here.
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Friday, April 10, 2009

-- The Monty Hall Paradox --

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Straightforward explanation of the "Monty Hall" Problem via YouTube here:


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Thursday, April 09, 2009

-- April/May --

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According to Cornell's update the mobile team departed Homestead, Fla. on March 22, with part of the team headed to South Carolina through "early May" --- a bit longer stay in S.C. than originally indicated, unless there are intermediate stops in N. Florida or other locales along the way.
I've never been terribly keen on South Carolina, but others find it promising due to the quality and size of habitat, many claims over the years, and sounds and signs found there in recent times, including just about this time of season last year. South Carolina has been, in my experience, the most tight-lipped of the various official state searches, so I've little clear idea if anything of greater substance has been gleaned from the current scaled-back season. But if anything significant were happening there now I suspect the entire mobile team would be headed that way instead of only part of the group (...unless of course they were splitting up to investigate two locales with significant results... unlikely).

By mid-May efforts in at least 5 states should be wrapping up, if not already well over (though there may be many remote automatic camera shots yet to be reviewed), but no clue when any results of those efforts might be released.
Meanwhile, Mike Collins has departed the Pearl in La. for this season and Richard Lyttle is departing from a lengthy sojourn in the Congaree/Santee region of S.C., while other less-publicized independents continue efforts for now. We're headed into the time when leaf-out, heat, and bug-out makes searching difficult, but also when any successfully breeding Ivorybills may begin moving around in family groups.
Gee, how surprising an end to the scaled-back season would this be: a few possible sightings, sounds, and signs found, and all summarily dismissed in some quarters for lack of a clear photograph....
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Wednesday, April 08, 2009

-- 'nuther Cornell Update --

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Latest update from Cornell mobile team here:

http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory/latest/April09Update

They acknowledge that part of the team is now in South Carolina through early May. Saw some good habitat in southern Florida, but no direct indication of Ivory-bill presence, and update ends as follows:
"Given the results, it is unlikely a population of any meaningful size of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers exists in south Florida. Because the habitat in its current state has a lot of potential, we do think that lingering individuals might still move around in the region. South Florida parks, preserves, agencies, and birders should remain attentive and open-minded to reports of the species in the region.
The Cornell Lab of Ornithology will remain available to assist in following up on promising reports."

Otherwise, in the too-cute-not-to-pass-along entertainment dept. this brief clip of young barn owls in action (hat tip to Birdchick for directing me to this):



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Tuesday, April 07, 2009

-- Just a Digression --

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"....the beginning of the universe, as seen by modern science, begins with nothing at all. There is no space; there is no time. There is not even a void. There is nothing.

In an instant, the nothing becomes something. In an enormous flash of energy, the big bang creates space and time.... within a tiny seed of matter and energy is all the stuff of our current universe.... quarks, gluons, and leptons are the most primitive matter in the universe, and until about a millionth of a second after the big bang, the universe is a seething soup of primitive matter and radiation....

"Cosmologists are shaking their heads in disbelief, because experiment after experiment is showing that the universe is entirely different from what astronomers had assumed since the beginning of modern science. Ordinary matter is the exception, and unknown, exotic matter is the norm. Our universe is mostly dark, and most of that dark matter is unknown, ineffable stuff that has never been seen directly. Had there not been so many experiments forcing cosmologists to accept this picture, it would seem utterly ridiculous....


" The vacuum is the most complex substance in the universe. Within it are all particles and all forces, even those unknown to science...
It seems like a contradiction to say that the vacuum is the most complex phenomenon in the universe. The very definition of the vacuum is the absence of everything, a space filled with nothing at all. In the 1930s, though, quantum physicists discovered, much to their surprise, that the vacuum isn't ever truly empty. It is seething with activity, filled to the brim with particles and energy...
...on relatively large scales, lightweight particles like electrons and anti-electrons are constantly popping in and out of existence, but on smaller and smaller scales, heavier particles like muons and taus (and undiscovered, massive particles, like WIMPs and other sparticles) become more and more important...
[Physicists] think that the energy of the vacuum, the zero-point energy that is everywhere in the universe, is forcing the universe apart."

-- Charles Seife from "Alpha and Omega"

....and some further thoughts on "dark matter" HERE.
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-- "Carolina Ivorybills" --

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Nothing too newsworthy, but Christen of "Carolina Ivorybills" blog has renewed posting, after a very long lapse, regarding her independent search in the southeastern corner of North Carolina (official agency searches have also taken place in the region):

http://carolinaivorybills.blogspot.com/

Speaking of which, congratulations to the North Carolina Tar Heel basketball team!... things seem to be going Cyberthrush's way lately ;-)
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Monday, April 06, 2009

-- Guthrie Updates --

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Rich Guthrie plans to report regular updates on his latest Arkansas trip in search of IBWO here:

http://blogs.timesunion.com/birding/

Don't know if Alan Mueller's search team has much longer to spend in the Big Woods, or if Guthrie (who's searching on his own this go-around), will try to touch base with them.
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Sunday, April 05, 2009

-- Name Change? --

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Occurs to me that at some point this blog might need to be re-named. (In fact I sometimes get complaints about the current title, even though it was named before there was any public controversy over the Ivory-bill's re-discovery.) With yet another search season possibly ending without conclusive evidence for the IBWO, here are 10 potential new titles should time and events absolutely compel one
(...OR, you can suggest your own ;-)) :

Ivory-bills LiVE... NNNOT!!
The Human Imagination Blog
Where's That 'Pecker ?
Ivory-bills Huhhhhh?
Faith-based Birding 101 Blog
DOHHHHH!!
Ivory-bills Schmivory-bills
Lord God What a Friggin' Waste of Time, Money, and Kayaks
Cyberthrush's Folly
PILEATEDS LiVE!!!!!!

(mind you, I don't foresee a blog title change coming anytime soon, but, just in case, I like to be ready....)
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Thursday, April 02, 2009

-- Online Auction --

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With government tax money drying up for IBWO searches, how about bake sales?...

Well not quite, but there is a currently-running online auction for
Ivory-billed Woodpecker-related art to raise funds for key organizations involved in the search. If you're into art, Ivory-bills, and auctions, by all means, check it out.

...and just a reminder that there is still an "Open Thread" available for miscellany back on March 26.
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Wednesday, April 01, 2009

-- Happy Anniversary David! --

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As some commenters below noted, today is actually the 10th anniversary of David Kullivan's celebrated sighting of 2 Ivory-billed Woodpeckers in the Pearl River region of Louisiana back in 1999; the claim that in a real sense initiated the current widespread interest in the species (from the mid-1970's to 1999 was a relative lull in IBWO interest). So probably some value in commemorating that anniversary. (Kullivan, by the way, has served in a supporting role on the current US Fish and Wildlife IBWO Recovery Team.)

Most of the original newspaper accounts on the Web of his encounter are gone (news stories often only stay up a limited time), or were just brief synopses. But I did finally stumble on an archived bird listserve post that included a verbatim local newspaper report, as well as some follow-up from the time period. If you enjoy re-living the past... :

http://www.ibiblio.org/pardo/birds/archive/archive3/msg00406.html
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-- Confession... --

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After almost 4 years of blogging can't hide it any longer... in a misplaced effort to generate debate, discussion, controversy, and thus greater interest in this very blog, I must confess to readers that I, Cyberthrush, have been the author of ALL the "Anonymous" comments seen on this blog (and every other IBWO-related site for that matter) since day 1. I am sorry that my preoccupation with blog traffic led to this shameful effort to create controversy where there was little, and to hide the boring unanimity which exists out there for the Ivory-bill's persistence.

Oh, and while I'm at it I should probably also admit that at a different URL I pseudonymously post under the nom de plume "Mike Collins."

my deepest apologies to anyone who may feel they've been misled....

posted April 1, 2009

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Tuesday, March 31, 2009

-- Guthrie Returning to Big Woods --

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New York birder Rich Guthrie, who claimed an Ivory-bill sighting in the Big Woods as a volunteer for the Cornell team in 2007, is headed back for another look according to this report. His own blog is here --- I assume he'll eventually post about the outing when he returns.
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-- No Luck... This Time --

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Painter John Agnew, who reported an Ivory-bill encounter early last year in the Choctawhatchee, reports on his latest excursion there here:

http://herps2art.wordpress.com/2009/03/24/back-to-bruce-creek/
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Monday, March 30, 2009

-- Reminder --

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Just a reminder to folks that what we have from the last 4 years of searching are multiple sounds and signs, from several states, consistent with what we know of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers, and a few fuzzy pictures that people claim are Ivory-bills. Moreover, multiple sighting claims for IBWO from people who are quite familiar with Pileated Woodpeckers, including some who do not say they think, or guess, or believe, that they saw an Ivory-bill, but instead voice unequivocal confidence that they've observed the species. All that is lacking is a definitive, indisputable photo, that everyone agrees upon --- skeptics perceive this as a major fatal lapse; whereas for some of us, it's not so inexplicable that the most stringent level of evidence remains elusive for a rare and sparse bird of dense forest, especially with so much malfunctioning and downtime for the automatic camera systems that may have been the best hope for getting such photographic evidence. I'm certainly disappointed that there have not been more clear sightings by now and that the ACONE system in particular in Arkansas did not capture the bird on film; and disappointed too that the methodologies, procedures, results, and details of official searches have been communicated so poorly to the public-at-large, but I'll await final reports for the '07, '08, '09 seasons (as well as any further reports from independents) before casting a judgment on where we now stand. For the time being,
at least five states, besides Arkansas, remain of great interest to me,

Have to keep passing along this wonderful nestcam of storks in Germany, now with at least two eggs:

http://www.stadtpark-mannheim.de/webcam/cam33.htm


By the time you read this the two hummingbird babies, earlier linked-to at another webcam, will probably have left the nest.

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