Friday, April 10, 2009

-- The Monty Hall Paradox --

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Straightforward explanation of the "Monty Hall" Problem via YouTube here:


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Thursday, April 09, 2009

-- April/May --

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According to Cornell's update the mobile team departed Homestead, Fla. on March 22, with part of the team headed to South Carolina through "early May" --- a bit longer stay in S.C. than originally indicated, unless there are intermediate stops in N. Florida or other locales along the way.
I've never been terribly keen on South Carolina, but others find it promising due to the quality and size of habitat, many claims over the years, and sounds and signs found there in recent times, including just about this time of season last year. South Carolina has been, in my experience, the most tight-lipped of the various official state searches, so I've little clear idea if anything of greater substance has been gleaned from the current scaled-back season. But if anything significant were happening there now I suspect the entire mobile team would be headed that way instead of only part of the group (...unless of course they were splitting up to investigate two locales with significant results... unlikely).

By mid-May efforts in at least 5 states should be wrapping up, if not already well over (though there may be many remote automatic camera shots yet to be reviewed), but no clue when any results of those efforts might be released.
Meanwhile, Mike Collins has departed the Pearl in La. for this season and Richard Lyttle is departing from a lengthy sojourn in the Congaree/Santee region of S.C., while other less-publicized independents continue efforts for now. We're headed into the time when leaf-out, heat, and bug-out makes searching difficult, but also when any successfully breeding Ivorybills may begin moving around in family groups.
Gee, how surprising an end to the scaled-back season would this be: a few possible sightings, sounds, and signs found, and all summarily dismissed in some quarters for lack of a clear photograph....
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Wednesday, April 08, 2009

-- 'nuther Cornell Update --

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Latest update from Cornell mobile team here:

http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory/latest/April09Update

They acknowledge that part of the team is now in South Carolina through early May. Saw some good habitat in southern Florida, but no direct indication of Ivory-bill presence, and update ends as follows:
"Given the results, it is unlikely a population of any meaningful size of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers exists in south Florida. Because the habitat in its current state has a lot of potential, we do think that lingering individuals might still move around in the region. South Florida parks, preserves, agencies, and birders should remain attentive and open-minded to reports of the species in the region.
The Cornell Lab of Ornithology will remain available to assist in following up on promising reports."

Otherwise, in the too-cute-not-to-pass-along entertainment dept. this brief clip of young barn owls in action (hat tip to Birdchick for directing me to this):



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Tuesday, April 07, 2009

-- Just a Digression --

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"....the beginning of the universe, as seen by modern science, begins with nothing at all. There is no space; there is no time. There is not even a void. There is nothing.

In an instant, the nothing becomes something. In an enormous flash of energy, the big bang creates space and time.... within a tiny seed of matter and energy is all the stuff of our current universe.... quarks, gluons, and leptons are the most primitive matter in the universe, and until about a millionth of a second after the big bang, the universe is a seething soup of primitive matter and radiation....

"Cosmologists are shaking their heads in disbelief, because experiment after experiment is showing that the universe is entirely different from what astronomers had assumed since the beginning of modern science. Ordinary matter is the exception, and unknown, exotic matter is the norm. Our universe is mostly dark, and most of that dark matter is unknown, ineffable stuff that has never been seen directly. Had there not been so many experiments forcing cosmologists to accept this picture, it would seem utterly ridiculous....


" The vacuum is the most complex substance in the universe. Within it are all particles and all forces, even those unknown to science...
It seems like a contradiction to say that the vacuum is the most complex phenomenon in the universe. The very definition of the vacuum is the absence of everything, a space filled with nothing at all. In the 1930s, though, quantum physicists discovered, much to their surprise, that the vacuum isn't ever truly empty. It is seething with activity, filled to the brim with particles and energy...
...on relatively large scales, lightweight particles like electrons and anti-electrons are constantly popping in and out of existence, but on smaller and smaller scales, heavier particles like muons and taus (and undiscovered, massive particles, like WIMPs and other sparticles) become more and more important...
[Physicists] think that the energy of the vacuum, the zero-point energy that is everywhere in the universe, is forcing the universe apart."

-- Charles Seife from "Alpha and Omega"

....and some further thoughts on "dark matter" HERE.
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-- "Carolina Ivorybills" --

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Nothing too newsworthy, but Christen of "Carolina Ivorybills" blog has renewed posting, after a very long lapse, regarding her independent search in the southeastern corner of North Carolina (official agency searches have also taken place in the region):

http://carolinaivorybills.blogspot.com/

Speaking of which, congratulations to the North Carolina Tar Heel basketball team!... things seem to be going Cyberthrush's way lately ;-)
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Monday, April 06, 2009

-- Guthrie Updates --

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Rich Guthrie plans to report regular updates on his latest Arkansas trip in search of IBWO here:

http://blogs.timesunion.com/birding/

Don't know if Alan Mueller's search team has much longer to spend in the Big Woods, or if Guthrie (who's searching on his own this go-around), will try to touch base with them.
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Sunday, April 05, 2009

-- Name Change? --

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Occurs to me that at some point this blog might need to be re-named. (In fact I sometimes get complaints about the current title, even though it was named before there was any public controversy over the Ivory-bill's re-discovery.) With yet another search season possibly ending without conclusive evidence for the IBWO, here are 10 potential new titles should time and events absolutely compel one
(...OR, you can suggest your own ;-)) :

Ivory-bills LiVE... NNNOT!!
The Human Imagination Blog
Where's That 'Pecker ?
Ivory-bills Huhhhhh?
Faith-based Birding 101 Blog
DOHHHHH!!
Ivory-bills Schmivory-bills
Lord God What a Friggin' Waste of Time, Money, and Kayaks
Cyberthrush's Folly
PILEATEDS LiVE!!!!!!

(mind you, I don't foresee a blog title change coming anytime soon, but, just in case, I like to be ready....)
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Thursday, April 02, 2009

-- Online Auction --

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With government tax money drying up for IBWO searches, how about bake sales?...

Well not quite, but there is a currently-running online auction for
Ivory-billed Woodpecker-related art to raise funds for key organizations involved in the search. If you're into art, Ivory-bills, and auctions, by all means, check it out.

...and just a reminder that there is still an "Open Thread" available for miscellany back on March 26.
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Wednesday, April 01, 2009

-- Happy Anniversary David! --

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As some commenters below noted, today is actually the 10th anniversary of David Kullivan's celebrated sighting of 2 Ivory-billed Woodpeckers in the Pearl River region of Louisiana back in 1999; the claim that in a real sense initiated the current widespread interest in the species (from the mid-1970's to 1999 was a relative lull in IBWO interest). So probably some value in commemorating that anniversary. (Kullivan, by the way, has served in a supporting role on the current US Fish and Wildlife IBWO Recovery Team.)

Most of the original newspaper accounts on the Web of his encounter are gone (news stories often only stay up a limited time), or were just brief synopses. But I did finally stumble on an archived bird listserve post that included a verbatim local newspaper report, as well as some follow-up from the time period. If you enjoy re-living the past... :

http://www.ibiblio.org/pardo/birds/archive/archive3/msg00406.html
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-- Confession... --

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After almost 4 years of blogging can't hide it any longer... in a misplaced effort to generate debate, discussion, controversy, and thus greater interest in this very blog, I must confess to readers that I, Cyberthrush, have been the author of ALL the "Anonymous" comments seen on this blog (and every other IBWO-related site for that matter) since day 1. I am sorry that my preoccupation with blog traffic led to this shameful effort to create controversy where there was little, and to hide the boring unanimity which exists out there for the Ivory-bill's persistence.

Oh, and while I'm at it I should probably also admit that at a different URL I pseudonymously post under the nom de plume "Mike Collins."

my deepest apologies to anyone who may feel they've been misled....

posted April 1, 2009

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Tuesday, March 31, 2009

-- Guthrie Returning to Big Woods --

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New York birder Rich Guthrie, who claimed an Ivory-bill sighting in the Big Woods as a volunteer for the Cornell team in 2007, is headed back for another look according to this report. His own blog is here --- I assume he'll eventually post about the outing when he returns.
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-- No Luck... This Time --

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Painter John Agnew, who reported an Ivory-bill encounter early last year in the Choctawhatchee, reports on his latest excursion there here:

http://herps2art.wordpress.com/2009/03/24/back-to-bruce-creek/
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Monday, March 30, 2009

-- Reminder --

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Just a reminder to folks that what we have from the last 4 years of searching are multiple sounds and signs, from several states, consistent with what we know of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers, and a few fuzzy pictures that people claim are Ivory-bills. Moreover, multiple sighting claims for IBWO from people who are quite familiar with Pileated Woodpeckers, including some who do not say they think, or guess, or believe, that they saw an Ivory-bill, but instead voice unequivocal confidence that they've observed the species. All that is lacking is a definitive, indisputable photo, that everyone agrees upon --- skeptics perceive this as a major fatal lapse; whereas for some of us, it's not so inexplicable that the most stringent level of evidence remains elusive for a rare and sparse bird of dense forest, especially with so much malfunctioning and downtime for the automatic camera systems that may have been the best hope for getting such photographic evidence. I'm certainly disappointed that there have not been more clear sightings by now and that the ACONE system in particular in Arkansas did not capture the bird on film; and disappointed too that the methodologies, procedures, results, and details of official searches have been communicated so poorly to the public-at-large, but I'll await final reports for the '07, '08, '09 seasons (as well as any further reports from independents) before casting a judgment on where we now stand. For the time being,
at least five states, besides Arkansas, remain of great interest to me,

Have to keep passing along this wonderful nestcam of storks in Germany, now with at least two eggs:

http://www.stadtpark-mannheim.de/webcam/cam33.htm


By the time you read this the two hummingbird babies, earlier linked-to at another webcam, will probably have left the nest.

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Sunday, March 29, 2009

-- Casting Call ;-)) --

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With three different Ivory-bill movies out-and-about in the marketplace, figured I oughta render
my own choices for casting a Hollywood blockbuster on the topic. So here are a dozen of the internet figures from this epic saga (column A) and 12 actors I've chosen to play their roles (column B) --- HOWEVER, I've completely JUMBLED the order of the actors from my actual pairings so you can now mix-and-match as you see fit (...and I SHAN'T ever reveal my original choices):

A ......................................................... B

Mike Collins ............................... Matthew Broderick
"Cyberthrush" ............................. Ben Stein
"Fangsheath"............................. Jack Nicholson
John Fitzpatrick ........................ Sean Penn
Geoff Hill ................................... Kevin Costner
Jerry Jackson ............................ Russell Crowe
David Luneau ............................ Will Ferrell
Tom Nelson ............................... Al Pacino
Bill Pulliam ................................. Harrison Ford
David Sibley .............................. Matt Damon
Fred Virrazzi ..............................
Tom Hanks
"Anonymous" ............................. Mickey Rourke

Yo, Spielberg, are ya out there?....

(P.S.: Off-topic question: the highly-popular blog "Mike's Birding and Digiscoping Blog" has been down for at least 24-48 hrs... can anyone apprise me, by comments or private email, what's going on there???)
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Friday, March 27, 2009

-- Mobile Team Checks In --

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Latest update from Cornell's Mobile Team continues in the not-terribly-informative format adopted well over a year ago, reading more like a travelogue than any sort of scientific study of potential Ivory-billed Woodpecker habitat:

http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory/latest/mst_March09

The update reports some of the team's activity in Southern Florida (I presume by now they've moved on to finish up in South Carolina), and acknowledges no documentation of the IBWO attained, before rambling off into other tangents of often minimal pertinence. General but no detailed discussion of habitat, nor of any possible cavities or signs of interest. There would be no shame in simply saying that NO sounds, signs, cavities, or sightings of note were found during their efforts, if that is the case (indeed that would be good info to know), but they don't afford such. Nor do they say if the area warrants additional searching, or they believe other areas are more deserving of peoples' time. After promising "articles and updates coming soon" (whatever "soon" means?) quite awhile back, the meagerness (some might say, laughableness) of Cornell's reports is difficult to comprehend from America's premier school of ornithology.

Having said that, I don't doubt that Cornell is doing much good science in the background, but their communication of it to the public is amateurish at best. Very annoying. One gets the feeling that the communications end of things is being run by the same individuals who communicate to 10-year-olds for their so-called "citizen science" projects. I'd like to think the search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker is a notch or two above that. Anyway, enough ranting...

With things soon drawing to a close on the official '08-'09 search season (and word is that the final summary for the '07-'08 season might now actually be close to public release... doooon't get me started), I don't foresee any significant news coming forth from this search season (...more sounds and signs of interest likely, but nothing significant enough to grab the attention of skeptics); although at any given time there are 1000's of Reconyx-type photos yet to be reviewed. I continue to hope that Gary Erdy will re-post his website with more details and fuller presentation at some point, and other independent searchers continue their efforts also, but we may well be watching the demise of major Government-funded searches for the Lord God Bird.
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Thursday, March 26, 2009

-- New Open Thread --

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The previous 'open thread experiment' worked reasonably well (decent variety of issues and commenters, with fewer breaches of etiquette than I expected ;-), so hereby a new one starts below (will probably let these run for 30-40 comments before closing them out and starting afresh).
Again, please refrain from
personal attacks/accusations toward individuals or institutions; criticisms are ok, but keep it on a civil/constructive level. I'm especially interested in using the space for: 1) getting answers to miscellaneous IBWO questions that readers may have on their minds, 2) discussion that sheds any new light or thoughts on specific evidence or claims, and 3) any new information about ongoing searches that may not yet have been made public; but plenty of other things as well.
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Wednesday, March 25, 2009

-- Flashback --

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Three years ago this month this article ran in Outside Magazine:

http://outside.away.com/outside/features/200603/ivory-billed-woodpecker.html
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Tuesday, March 24, 2009

-- 'Ghost Bird' Movie Update --

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An interview with Scott Crocker (producer of the documentary "Ghost Bird" movie), available as podcast at BirdWatch Radio here:

http://www.birdwatchradio.com/audio/bwr019_20090317.mp3

Although, already previewed at several film festivals around country,[ CORRECTION: apparently the San Diego showing was the ONLY festival sneak preview for "Ghost Bird" ] the film gets its official 'world premiere' in early May in Canada. No listing yet for when and where else it will be appearing following that debut.
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