--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Two-fers?:
Fish and Wildlife biologist Bob Russell promises he is completing an updated Top 10 list of places to look for Ivory-bills, and may even throw in a Top 10 list of where to look for the Eskimo Curlew as a bonus (...you know, for those who will be bored stiff once the IBWO is documented ;-) The possible two-fer that has always interested a lot of people, and remains on some folks' mind, would be finding Bachman's Warbler while looking for the Ivory-bill (there have been a few suggestive leads for Bachman's last couple of years, but, surprise-surprise, nothing conclusive).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Monday, January 12, 2009
-- Your Shot of Adrenalin For Today --
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As I said once before, NOTHING in the Ivorybill arena is ever simple... grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.......
THE POST LINKED TO EARLIER TODAY HAS BEEN TAKEN DOWN, AND I'VE BEEN ASKED AS WELL TO REMOVE ANY FURTHER REFERENCE TO IT (AND HAVE HEREBY DONE SO). I CAN ONLY SAY THAT PARTIES INVOLVED DO NOT WANT EVEN THE BIT OF VAGUE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THE POST DISSEMINATED WIDELY. I HAVE NO IDEA HOW MANY PEOPLE HAD ALREADY READ THE POST BEFORE ITS REMOVAL, OR MAY EVEN ALREADY BE PASSING IT ALONG. THERE WAS NOTHING MORE CONVINCING ABOUT THE PARTICULAR CLAIM DESCRIBED THAN ANY NUMBER OF OTHER CLAIMS THAT HAVE COME ALONG AND LED NOWHERE. OBVIOUSLY, MORE STUDY MAY CHANGE THAT; TIME WILL TELL.
AM TRULY SORRY FOR ANY 'INCONVENIENCE' OR MISPLACED ANTICIPATION CAUSED.
Again, it is a sad situation we are in that people are made to feel so reluctant about the public release of even general information.
And, yet another little bit on the Florida mangroves, courtesy of a reader who prefers to remain anonymous:
As he/she recalls it, one sighting came from a ranger during a flyover of the Everglades mangroves last year, during which the ranger believes an Ivory-bill was spotted in flight below the plane; and possibly there was another report from a fisherman in the same area as well. "This area of mangrove forest is huge with some very, very large trees. The largest of these are the Black Mangroves that are supposed to be up to 100 feet tall;" and the writer stresses the age and density of this virgin forest, cautioning that it is not an area for independent searchers, unfamiliar with the terrain, to attempt to traverse on their own.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As I said once before, NOTHING in the Ivorybill arena is ever simple... grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.......
THE POST LINKED TO EARLIER TODAY HAS BEEN TAKEN DOWN, AND I'VE BEEN ASKED AS WELL TO REMOVE ANY FURTHER REFERENCE TO IT (AND HAVE HEREBY DONE SO). I CAN ONLY SAY THAT PARTIES INVOLVED DO NOT WANT EVEN THE BIT OF VAGUE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THE POST DISSEMINATED WIDELY. I HAVE NO IDEA HOW MANY PEOPLE HAD ALREADY READ THE POST BEFORE ITS REMOVAL, OR MAY EVEN ALREADY BE PASSING IT ALONG. THERE WAS NOTHING MORE CONVINCING ABOUT THE PARTICULAR CLAIM DESCRIBED THAN ANY NUMBER OF OTHER CLAIMS THAT HAVE COME ALONG AND LED NOWHERE. OBVIOUSLY, MORE STUDY MAY CHANGE THAT; TIME WILL TELL.
AM TRULY SORRY FOR ANY 'INCONVENIENCE' OR MISPLACED ANTICIPATION CAUSED.
Again, it is a sad situation we are in that people are made to feel so reluctant about the public release of even general information.
And, yet another little bit on the Florida mangroves, courtesy of a reader who prefers to remain anonymous:
As he/she recalls it, one sighting came from a ranger during a flyover of the Everglades mangroves last year, during which the ranger believes an Ivory-bill was spotted in flight below the plane; and possibly there was another report from a fisherman in the same area as well. "This area of mangrove forest is huge with some very, very large trees. The largest of these are the Black Mangroves that are supposed to be up to 100 feet tall;" and the writer stresses the age and density of this virgin forest, cautioning that it is not an area for independent searchers, unfamiliar with the terrain, to attempt to traverse on their own.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, January 11, 2009
-- Last Bit On Mangroves For Now --
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
An emailer asks for more details on last season's claims from Florida mangrove areas, but... I have no more details. The little bit I heard in private emails lacked elaboration, and gave no indication that the reports were taken very seriously at the time (although I believe one sighting came from a wildlife officer with some credibility).
All of this points to one of the annoying aspects of the Ivory-bill saga. The scorn of skeptics seems to have produced a "chilling effect" on the disclosure of Ivory-bill reports. Those reports that are easily-explained-away upon examination or otherwise NON-credible need no publicity. But there remains a residue of reports from credible or potentially credible sources that also seem to be swept out of public view.
Around the Web I see frequent skeptical remarks to the effect that "NO evidence" has been found for IBWOs after all of this searching --- but EVIDENCE HAS BEEN GATHERED; the debate is over its validity and how much to publicly release, not whether ongoing evidence exists. A decision seems to have been made, following so much criticism and ridicule, to disclose very few reports or details, unless a very high standard is met. In short, heated skepticism has had a "chilling effect" on the very reporting of anything less than solid evidence at this point (which in turn leads cynics to conclude falsely that there has been NOTHING to report).
Generally speaking, "chilling effects" are not a good thing for science. It's as if NASA stopped talking about manned moon landings because moon-hoax conspiracy theorists take everything NASA presents and twists it around to be 'smoke-and-mirrors,' faking the moon landings; so why put out more material and subject oneself to such reproach. Indeed, in this 'Alice-through-the-looking-glass' world, skeptics now use all sightings, not accompanied by photographic evidence, as yet further evidence of extinction: if 100 new sightings occur, STIIIIIIIIILL with no photograph, it must be confirmation of extinction in the cynical view.
I don't really expect IBWOs will be found in mangrove forest, and don't wish to raise hopes unduly for that particular habitat, but, having said that, it would be delicious irony if it turned out that Ivory-bills were cavorting merrily around in mangroves for decades while humans bumbled through bottomland woods lookin' for 'em for no other reason than prior humans postulating this was the only place they could be.
On a sidenote, Bill Pulliam's latest take on the IBWO saga here:
http://bbill.blogspot.com/2009/01/woodpecker-rumblings.html
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
An emailer asks for more details on last season's claims from Florida mangrove areas, but... I have no more details. The little bit I heard in private emails lacked elaboration, and gave no indication that the reports were taken very seriously at the time (although I believe one sighting came from a wildlife officer with some credibility).
All of this points to one of the annoying aspects of the Ivory-bill saga. The scorn of skeptics seems to have produced a "chilling effect" on the disclosure of Ivory-bill reports. Those reports that are easily-explained-away upon examination or otherwise NON-credible need no publicity. But there remains a residue of reports from credible or potentially credible sources that also seem to be swept out of public view.
Around the Web I see frequent skeptical remarks to the effect that "NO evidence" has been found for IBWOs after all of this searching --- but EVIDENCE HAS BEEN GATHERED; the debate is over its validity and how much to publicly release, not whether ongoing evidence exists. A decision seems to have been made, following so much criticism and ridicule, to disclose very few reports or details, unless a very high standard is met. In short, heated skepticism has had a "chilling effect" on the very reporting of anything less than solid evidence at this point (which in turn leads cynics to conclude falsely that there has been NOTHING to report).
Generally speaking, "chilling effects" are not a good thing for science. It's as if NASA stopped talking about manned moon landings because moon-hoax conspiracy theorists take everything NASA presents and twists it around to be 'smoke-and-mirrors,' faking the moon landings; so why put out more material and subject oneself to such reproach. Indeed, in this 'Alice-through-the-looking-glass' world, skeptics now use all sightings, not accompanied by photographic evidence, as yet further evidence of extinction: if 100 new sightings occur, STIIIIIIIIILL with no photograph, it must be confirmation of extinction in the cynical view.
I don't really expect IBWOs will be found in mangrove forest, and don't wish to raise hopes unduly for that particular habitat, but, having said that, it would be delicious irony if it turned out that Ivory-bills were cavorting merrily around in mangroves for decades while humans bumbled through bottomland woods lookin' for 'em for no other reason than prior humans postulating this was the only place they could be.
On a sidenote, Bill Pulliam's latest take on the IBWO saga here:
http://bbill.blogspot.com/2009/01/woodpecker-rumblings.html
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, January 09, 2009
-- Mangrove Forest --
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last year there were a few rumors of Ivory-bill claims for mangrove areas of SW Florida. I'm not sure how seriously anyone took them, but Cornell did eventually send their 'mobile team' in for a quick look-see. Apparently they were intrigued enough with what they saw to go back this season for more serious exploration (there are a few distant IBWO historical records for mangrove areas). Were Ivorybills to be found in those mangrove forests it would blow open the already-flimsy notion that Ivory-bill habitat was totally destroyed in the 1940's, or that we even understand the needs/requirements of this species.
When skeptics say the Ivory-bill hasn't been found for 60 years, the false implication is that it's been looked for, for 60 years running, when in fact, until recently, it's been looked for relatively little in many areas; the mangrove forests represent a shining example of an area that has barely been touched. Southern Illinois and western Tennessee, other areas being further searched this season, likewise represent locales not given much serious attention historically. Were Ivory-bills to be documented in any of these regions it would offer an easy explanation for why they hadn't been detected in 60 years: nobody was much looking for them there! --- people have a strong tendency not to find things they aren't looking for...
And so today we have people looking for IBWOs where there is great habitat (as we define it), but where much searching has already taken place, and in places of more uncertain habitat, but where, by sheer neglect, the birds might reside undetected for a lengthy time.
There are swamp areas of great interest adjacent to the Florida mangroves also being searched, but if IBWOs were found in the mangrove forests themselves, against expectation and general tradition, it would require people to toss out much of what they think they know about Ivory-bills and begin anew (...of course for some folks, documenting Ivorybills ANYwhere will require such a re-evaluation).
A couple of websites with some further mangrove information:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mangrove
http://www.sfrc.ufl.edu/extension/pubtxt/for43.htm
I don't have any direct experience with mangrove forests; if anyone directly familiar with them wishes to comment, pro or con, about their suitability for large woodpeckers, either in Florida, or elsewhere around the world, I'd be curious to hear.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last year there were a few rumors of Ivory-bill claims for mangrove areas of SW Florida. I'm not sure how seriously anyone took them, but Cornell did eventually send their 'mobile team' in for a quick look-see. Apparently they were intrigued enough with what they saw to go back this season for more serious exploration (there are a few distant IBWO historical records for mangrove areas). Were Ivorybills to be found in those mangrove forests it would blow open the already-flimsy notion that Ivory-bill habitat was totally destroyed in the 1940's, or that we even understand the needs/requirements of this species.
When skeptics say the Ivory-bill hasn't been found for 60 years, the false implication is that it's been looked for, for 60 years running, when in fact, until recently, it's been looked for relatively little in many areas; the mangrove forests represent a shining example of an area that has barely been touched. Southern Illinois and western Tennessee, other areas being further searched this season, likewise represent locales not given much serious attention historically. Were Ivory-bills to be documented in any of these regions it would offer an easy explanation for why they hadn't been detected in 60 years: nobody was much looking for them there! --- people have a strong tendency not to find things they aren't looking for...
And so today we have people looking for IBWOs where there is great habitat (as we define it), but where much searching has already taken place, and in places of more uncertain habitat, but where, by sheer neglect, the birds might reside undetected for a lengthy time.
There are swamp areas of great interest adjacent to the Florida mangroves also being searched, but if IBWOs were found in the mangrove forests themselves, against expectation and general tradition, it would require people to toss out much of what they think they know about Ivory-bills and begin anew (...of course for some folks, documenting Ivorybills ANYwhere will require such a re-evaluation).
A couple of websites with some further mangrove information:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mangrove
http://www.sfrc.ufl.edu/extension/pubtxt/for43.htm
I don't have any direct experience with mangrove forests; if anyone directly familiar with them wishes to comment, pro or con, about their suitability for large woodpeckers, either in Florida, or elsewhere around the world, I'd be curious to hear.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, January 08, 2009
-- Monty Python Revisited --
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
M: The Ivory-billed Woodpecker is extinct; it's a goner; it's pushin' up daisies as we speak, I tell ya...
J: But... but 100s of people say they've seen one. How can you be so blimey sure Ivory-bills are no more?
M: Those people are mistaken, each and every one of 'em, mistaken I tell you; they seen somethin' else --- you CAN'T see what don't exist, so them that say they seen it, MUST be mistaken, don't ya get it... simple logic.
J: So, the bird is extinct, becuz no one's seen it, and those that say they have is all mistaken, 'cuz they MUST be, 'cuz it doesn't exist; is that it?
M: Now you're gettin' it, matey; pure reasoning don't ya see...
J: But I'm just not clear, how can one be so sure Ivory-bills have forever passed?
M: Look bloke, 60 years ago their home, their habitat, their domicile, was destroyed, ravaged, turned to rubble; they got nowhere to live, nowhere to hang their hat, so they exited this world; there simply couldn't be any of 'em left around today. Use your noggin' for gosh sakes. No home, no bird.
J: But LOTS of critters, including LOTS of woodpeckers, lived in that habitat, and they're still around now. The Pileateds are here; why must there be no more Ivory-bills?
M: Don't ya know nuthin'... the Pileated was adaptable; the Ivory-bill was a 'specialist;' he couldn't change with the times by jove, so now he's deceased, he's expired, lacking a pulse, he resides in your dreams ONLY. You're stretchin' my patience here, boy.
J: Ahhh, the Ivory-bill was a specialist, and the Pileated was not, hmmmm?
M: Yes chap, see it's not rocket-science; look around, Pileateds are all over, but Ivory-bills are nowhere to be found, 'cept spinning in their grave... that proves it... they were too specialized for their own good.
J: Ahhh!, so we know the Ivory-bill was a specialist and the Pileated wasn't because the former is gone and the latter is still around, which must mean that the Ivory-bill was a specialist and the Pileated wasn't because....
M: Yes, yes, now you're gettin' it; you're comin' around finally; the logic is sinkin' in. The Ivory-bill he's not hidin', he's not sleeping out-of-sight, he's without existence don't ya see, gone to that great big cypress swamp in the sky, DEAD as a doornail. Bye bye birdie.
J: So I guess anyone who says he's seen an Ivory-bill is just plain wrong, huh?
M: You got it... he has to be wrong, 'cuz, hey, THAT'S science for ya!!
J: Well, thanks for clearing that all up... now, about this dead parrot you sold me. . . . .
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
M: The Ivory-billed Woodpecker is extinct; it's a goner; it's pushin' up daisies as we speak, I tell ya...
J: But... but 100s of people say they've seen one. How can you be so blimey sure Ivory-bills are no more?
M: Those people are mistaken, each and every one of 'em, mistaken I tell you; they seen somethin' else --- you CAN'T see what don't exist, so them that say they seen it, MUST be mistaken, don't ya get it... simple logic.
J: So, the bird is extinct, becuz no one's seen it, and those that say they have is all mistaken, 'cuz they MUST be, 'cuz it doesn't exist; is that it?
M: Now you're gettin' it, matey; pure reasoning don't ya see...
J: But I'm just not clear, how can one be so sure Ivory-bills have forever passed?
M: Look bloke, 60 years ago their home, their habitat, their domicile, was destroyed, ravaged, turned to rubble; they got nowhere to live, nowhere to hang their hat, so they exited this world; there simply couldn't be any of 'em left around today. Use your noggin' for gosh sakes. No home, no bird.
J: But LOTS of critters, including LOTS of woodpeckers, lived in that habitat, and they're still around now. The Pileateds are here; why must there be no more Ivory-bills?
M: Don't ya know nuthin'... the Pileated was adaptable; the Ivory-bill was a 'specialist;' he couldn't change with the times by jove, so now he's deceased, he's expired, lacking a pulse, he resides in your dreams ONLY. You're stretchin' my patience here, boy.
J: Ahhh, the Ivory-bill was a specialist, and the Pileated was not, hmmmm?
M: Yes chap, see it's not rocket-science; look around, Pileateds are all over, but Ivory-bills are nowhere to be found, 'cept spinning in their grave... that proves it... they were too specialized for their own good.
J: Ahhh!, so we know the Ivory-bill was a specialist and the Pileated wasn't because the former is gone and the latter is still around, which must mean that the Ivory-bill was a specialist and the Pileated wasn't because....
M: Yes, yes, now you're gettin' it; you're comin' around finally; the logic is sinkin' in. The Ivory-bill he's not hidin', he's not sleeping out-of-sight, he's without existence don't ya see, gone to that great big cypress swamp in the sky, DEAD as a doornail. Bye bye birdie.
J: So I guess anyone who says he's seen an Ivory-bill is just plain wrong, huh?
M: You got it... he has to be wrong, 'cuz, hey, THAT'S science for ya!!
J: Well, thanks for clearing that all up... now, about this dead parrot you sold me. . . . .
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
-- Latest From Cornell --
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cornell has new update on this season's search getting underway now, with special emphasis on southwest Florida including mangrove forests from which certain rumors emanated last year; several other key areas of SW Fla. also included as well, as a 7-member 'mobile search team' enters some of the most difficult terrain yet tackled. These searches will go at least through mid-March. Other teams will be searching "eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, southern Illinois, the Florida panhandle, South Carolina, North Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi, and east Texas." All these areas have produced various claims/rumors in the last year, except for east Texas from which I've not heard anything very positive recently (but I may have missed something, or else the sheer size of the Big Thicket area may simply require further efforts). Mississippi and South Carolina are singled out for some special emphasis, but clearly that's subject to change.
The update ends as follows:
"The draft recovery plan will be finalized in 2009. In the future, we will focus conservation actions in locations where an active roost or nest is located, or other new information provides a compelling reason to implement additional tasks identified in the recovery plan.
"If no birds are confirmed, the Cornell Lab of Ornithology will not send an organized team into the field next year. 'We remain committed to our original goal of striving to locate breeding pairs,' says Cornell Lab of Ornithology director John Fitzpatrick. 'We will continue to accept and investigate credible reports of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers, and to promote protection and restoration of the old growth conditions upon which this magnificent species depended across the entire southeastern United States'.”
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cornell has new update on this season's search getting underway now, with special emphasis on southwest Florida including mangrove forests from which certain rumors emanated last year; several other key areas of SW Fla. also included as well, as a 7-member 'mobile search team' enters some of the most difficult terrain yet tackled. These searches will go at least through mid-March. Other teams will be searching "eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, southern Illinois, the Florida panhandle, South Carolina, North Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi, and east Texas." All these areas have produced various claims/rumors in the last year, except for east Texas from which I've not heard anything very positive recently (but I may have missed something, or else the sheer size of the Big Thicket area may simply require further efforts). Mississippi and South Carolina are singled out for some special emphasis, but clearly that's subject to change.
The update ends as follows:
"The draft recovery plan will be finalized in 2009. In the future, we will focus conservation actions in locations where an active roost or nest is located, or other new information provides a compelling reason to implement additional tasks identified in the recovery plan.
"If no birds are confirmed, the Cornell Lab of Ornithology will not send an organized team into the field next year. 'We remain committed to our original goal of striving to locate breeding pairs,' says Cornell Lab of Ornithology director John Fitzpatrick. 'We will continue to accept and investigate credible reports of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers, and to promote protection and restoration of the old growth conditions upon which this magnificent species depended across the entire southeastern United States'.”
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
-- Picture This --
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A variety of pictures/images of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker from around the Web ...sorry, nothing recent :-(
1. http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0eZBfES2C1dGA/340x.jpg
2. http://www.memphisflyer.com/binary/b712d0a0/Ivory-billed_woodpecker_specimen.jpg
3. http://www.birding.com/images/ivory.jpg
4. http://www.atchafalayarevisited.com/images/20050429--12827.jpg
5. http://www.ngsprints.co.uk/images/M/962074.jpg
6. http://farm1.static.flickr.com/113/265999141_2b0e2ad530.jpg?v=0
7. http://www.taxidermy4cash.com/dalwood.jpg
8. http://www.birdingadventuresinc.com/site/images/Ivory-billedwoodpecker.jpg
9. http://lh5.ggpht.com/_8bX4y7iwMvo/R5aOVP_yl_I/AAAAAAAABmc/0ifMgmLUwhU/Boston+12-08+020.JPG
10. http://research.calacademy.org/science_now/academy_research/images/ivory_billed_woodpecker_specimens.jpg
11. http://southwestpaddler.com/photos/IBW001-306a.jpg
12. http://www.bigcountryaudubon.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/03/IBWO_web_tanner_pix1.jpg
13. http://www.mnh.si.edu/museum/news/woodpecker/images/specimens.jpg
14. http://www.flmnh.ufl.edu/sciencestories/2006/images/lost_found01.jpg
15. http://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/711/galleries/photos/ibw2/image_preview
16. http://www.ohiohistorycentral.org/images/1441.jpg
17. http://www.galleryone.com/images/brenders/brenders_-_ivory_billed_woodpecker.jpg
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A variety of pictures/images of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker from around the Web ...sorry, nothing recent :-(
1. http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0eZBfES2C1dGA/340x.jpg
2. http://www.memphisflyer.com/binary/b712d0a0/Ivory-billed_woodpecker_specimen.jpg
3. http://www.birding.com/images/ivory.jpg
4. http://www.atchafalayarevisited.com/images/20050429--12827.jpg
5. http://www.ngsprints.co.uk/images/M/962074.jpg
6. http://farm1.static.flickr.com/113/265999141_2b0e2ad530.jpg?v=0
7. http://www.taxidermy4cash.com/dalwood.jpg
8. http://www.birdingadventuresinc.com/site/images/Ivory-billedwoodpecker.jpg
9. http://lh5.ggpht.com/_8bX4y7iwMvo/R5aOVP_yl_I/AAAAAAAABmc/0ifMgmLUwhU/Boston+12-08+020.JPG
10. http://research.calacademy.org/science_now/academy_research/images/ivory_billed_woodpecker_specimens.jpg
11. http://southwestpaddler.com/photos/IBW001-306a.jpg
12. http://www.bigcountryaudubon.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/03/IBWO_web_tanner_pix1.jpg
13. http://www.mnh.si.edu/museum/news/woodpecker/images/specimens.jpg
14. http://www.flmnh.ufl.edu/sciencestories/2006/images/lost_found01.jpg
15. http://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/711/galleries/photos/ibw2/image_preview
16. http://www.ohiohistorycentral.org/images/1441.jpg
17. http://www.galleryone.com/images/brenders/brenders_-_ivory_billed_woodpecker.jpg
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, January 04, 2009
-- Commentary --
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The previous referenced paper concerns itself primarily with the question of with what probability should IBWOs have been detected by now (given the effort put forth) if they persisted in the White River or Bayou De View regions of Arkansas. And skeptics will actually find much to latch onto in the analysis done, as the authors acknowledge at one point: "...given this search effort, if more than a very few Ivory-billed Woodpeckers were present in the search area during the surveys, their presence should have been detected."
There does however remain the significant possibility of just 1-2 IBWOs inhabiting the areas surveyed and going undetected (and of course Cornell's initial claims for the Big Woods were simply for the presence of at least a single bird).
The authors note that for the searches to be even "moderately effective" the Ivory-bill would need to have a "large" home range (exceeding 5000 hectares -- to increase the chance of encounter with an observer), and then go on to say the following :
"Home-range size is unknown for Ivory-billed Woodpeckers. During his studies, Tanner (1942) followed birds and found that, during the nesting season, individuals often traveled >2.0 km from the nest, with one record of a bird traveling 4.0 km from its nest in the course of daily activities. Based on anecdotal information, winter ranges (when current Ivory-billed Woodpecker surveys are done) were much larger than nesting-season ranges (Tanner 1942). From this, if winter home ranges are equivalent to a circle with a 4.0 km radius, home range size would be 50 km2 (5000 ha), which would produce posterior probabilities of extinction slightly under 80% in both BDV [Bayou de View] and WR [White River]. From this analysis, we conclude that much greater search efforts will be required to obtain a level of 90% or greater for posterior probabilities of extinction."
I think the 'home range' argument is a bit tenuous (and could almost be argued in an opposite way), but not worth niggling over here.
and later, this:
"The search effort required to have a high degree of certainty that a species occurs (or does not occur) in an area becomes extremely large for populations of 10 or fewer individuals. Our analysis of the search effort for Ivory-billed Woodpeckers in the White River and Bayou de View, assuming a uniform distribution of birds if they are present, suggest that if birds were present the actual number of individuals was very low (N<2). With this assumption it is unlikely that birds were still present in the intensively searched area but not seen during surveys. However, below, we present distributions other than the uniform, which suggest higher probabilities that the Ivory-billed Woodpeckers may still persist in White River and Bayou de View."
and finally toward the end, this:
"The Ivory-billed Woodpecker surveys we considered included only ~12% of the forested habitat in the overall search area in Arkansas, so our analysis does not enable us to assess the likelihood that Ivory-billed Woodpeckers are extinct in the wider search area, much less across the currently presumably suitable habitat within the species’ historic range. Based on a statistical assessment using time series of historic sightings, Roberts (2006) argued that a declaration of extinction is premature for this species."
Just a couple of points I'll make about the study: As noted above, the paper's analysis ONLY covers work completed in Arkansas, and regardless of the outcome there, essentially argues for the need of similarly intense efforts carried out in other prospective areas of the Southeast before conclusions about IBWO persistence be drawn with any assurance. Also, this analysis operates on the assumption of no "valid detections" occurring during the period of study... an assumption that may be drawn for empirical reasons, but which may be totally false, as there were in fact both sightings claims and possible auditory encounters over that time period. Obviously, just 1 or 2 "valid detections" hugely alters the resultant statistics.
The take-home message here is what we've already known for a long time: that it is exceedingly difficult to demonstrate with great confidence the extinction of a species being repeatedly reported in vast habitat. Some folks, unfortunately, continue to think it easy.
The upside for conservation, should the Ivory-billed Woodpecker ever be conclusively documented, is massive --- the "charisma" of the species alone would send tremendous ripples through the conservation establishment, but beyond that, the vast habitat tracts to be saved would have impact on many other species as well... possibly more impact than carried by saving any other currently endangered North American bird. One ought not risk dismissing such an upside prematurely. As the authors note early in their article, "Rediscovery of “extinct” species occurs often enough to give one pause about making premature pronouncements." Indeed it does, indeed it does...
But enough academic rambling, now for your sheer viewing entertainment... some BennyHillified hummingbirds!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-- Designating Extinction --
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New open access article available:
One of the common rhetorical grenades lobbed at the Ivory-bill search is that funding for endangered species is a zero-sum game with money spent on the IBWO being money lost to species that may have a better chance of profiting from such funding. Endangered Hawaiian birds are often used as an example for this argument.
Using Hawaiian birds as a model, a new paper out (from Cornell and other authors) appears to somewhat address this line of thinking here, focusing on the evidence needed for extinction designation.
Thanks to "PORCAR" over at IBWO Researchers Forum for pointing this paper out.
(I haven't had time to fully read/digest the piece, so may or may not have more to say about it later.)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New open access article available:
One of the common rhetorical grenades lobbed at the Ivory-bill search is that funding for endangered species is a zero-sum game with money spent on the IBWO being money lost to species that may have a better chance of profiting from such funding. Endangered Hawaiian birds are often used as an example for this argument.
Using Hawaiian birds as a model, a new paper out (from Cornell and other authors) appears to somewhat address this line of thinking here, focusing on the evidence needed for extinction designation.
Thanks to "PORCAR" over at IBWO Researchers Forum for pointing this paper out.
(I haven't had time to fully read/digest the piece, so may or may not have more to say about it later.)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, January 02, 2009
-- Getting the Year Off to a Good Start --
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
More off-topic stuff (...early in year; time just for fun) :
THANK YOU, THANK YOU!! to whoever created this: The "BennyHillifier" available here. (turns any YouTube video into a Benny Hill routine).
And my contribution here (YouTube's famous "Snowball the Dancing Cockatoo" set to the beat).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
More off-topic stuff (...early in year; time just for fun) :
THANK YOU, THANK YOU!! to whoever created this: The "BennyHillifier" available here. (turns any YouTube video into a Benny Hill routine).
And my contribution here (YouTube's famous "Snowball the Dancing Cockatoo" set to the beat).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, January 01, 2009
-- Bird Blogs... --
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the event that one of your New Year's resolutions is to read more bird blogs (and, in the event you have about 10 hours free to sort through these!) John Trapp has posted his latest updated roll of (~300) bird weblogs here.
As an aside, just noticed that Jonathan Rosen's elegy to birdwatching, "The Life of the Skies," is newly out in paperback.
And lastly this, from the Too-fun-not-to-pass-along Dept.:
Cat and parrot
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the event that one of your New Year's resolutions is to read more bird blogs (and, in the event you have about 10 hours free to sort through these!) John Trapp has posted his latest updated roll of (~300) bird weblogs here.
As an aside, just noticed that Jonathan Rosen's elegy to birdwatching, "The Life of the Skies," is newly out in paperback.
And lastly this, from the Too-fun-not-to-pass-along Dept.:
Cat and parrot
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
-- End Of Year --
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wheeeeeeww... glad to kiss this year good-bye.... ;-)
And by way of yearly wrap-up, at this time of top ten lists, a rough slate of my own 10 semi-favorite Ivory-bill posts from the year just passed:
1. Close Encounters of the Bird Kind (from April)
2. Tanner Redux (May)
3. Say What? ( Jan.)
4. Population Stasis (July)
5. Sunday Contemplation (Dec.)
6. Thangs That Be a Buggin' Me ( June)
7. The Natives Are Restless (July)
8. Schrodinger's Cat (Feb.)
9. Birder's World Compendium ( Jan.)
10. Dogness ( April)
And a couple of NON-Ivory-bill-related posts I also enjoyed:
Obama Victorious... You Betcha
Science At The Edge (Jill Bolte Taylor)
Happy, Healthy, Brighter 2009 Everyone!.....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wheeeeeeww... glad to kiss this year good-bye.... ;-)
And by way of yearly wrap-up, at this time of top ten lists, a rough slate of my own 10 semi-favorite Ivory-bill posts from the year just passed:
1. Close Encounters of the Bird Kind (from April)
2. Tanner Redux (May)
3. Say What? ( Jan.)
4. Population Stasis (July)
5. Sunday Contemplation (Dec.)
6. Thangs That Be a Buggin' Me ( June)
7. The Natives Are Restless (July)
8. Schrodinger's Cat (Feb.)
9. Birder's World Compendium ( Jan.)
10. Dogness ( April)
And a couple of NON-Ivory-bill-related posts I also enjoyed:
Obama Victorious... You Betcha
Science At The Edge (Jill Bolte Taylor)
Happy, Healthy, Brighter 2009 Everyone!.....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
-- "On Being Certain" --
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Epistemologists long ago explained why it's impossible to be certain about the nature of reality... then physicists explained why uncertainty underlies all science... and now a neurologist, Dr. Robert Burton, explains, in terms of brain chemistry, why certainty is a mirage:
http://us.macmillan.com/onbeingcertain
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, December 29, 2008
-- 'nuther Center of Controversy Goes To Grave --
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Colorful Fielding Lewis, whose claims of Ivory-bill encounters in Louisiana in the 1970s could never be confirmed nor disproven died a week ago at age 78. Lewis persuaded premier ornithologist George Lowery Jr. of the reality of Ivory-bills in Louisiana in 1971, only to taint Lowery's reputation in the process.
Tim Gallagher devoted one chapter ("The Boxer") of his book "The Grail Bird" to the Louisiana character here (courtesy of Google).
One of Lewis's famous controversial photos of an Ivory-bill near the Atchafalaya leads off(and is colorized) this Dec. 2001 Birding Magazine article by birder Jim Williams.
Lewis's own book "Tales of a Louisiana Duck Hunter," which includes some of his Ivory-bill accounts, is available here.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Colorful Fielding Lewis, whose claims of Ivory-bill encounters in Louisiana in the 1970s could never be confirmed nor disproven died a week ago at age 78. Lewis persuaded premier ornithologist George Lowery Jr. of the reality of Ivory-bills in Louisiana in 1971, only to taint Lowery's reputation in the process.
Tim Gallagher devoted one chapter ("The Boxer") of his book "The Grail Bird" to the Louisiana character here (courtesy of Google).
One of Lewis's famous controversial photos of an Ivory-bill near the Atchafalaya leads off
Lewis's own book "Tales of a Louisiana Duck Hunter," which includes some of his Ivory-bill accounts, is available here.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, December 28, 2008
-- I Digress --
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Infinity, Cantor, and the Continuum:
...and for those who can hardly wait for more, the second part of this video is here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhgNiqI-bt0&feature=related
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Infinity, Cantor, and the Continuum:
...and for those who can hardly wait for more, the second part of this video is here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhgNiqI-bt0&feature=related
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, December 26, 2008
-- New and Improved? --
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
David Luneau reports that a newly-fashioned "peeper-cam" (essentially a camera at the end of a pole) has been devised for use in the Arkansas IBWO search, checking out prospective woodpecker cavities.
Geoff Hill will be using newly-designed vibration-triggered cameras from National Geographic in the Florida search to better, and more selectively, capture images at prospective woodpecker sites in the Choctawhatchee.
And Bobby Harrison reports he will be setting up both still and animated (head-moving) IBWO decoys in January in his pursuit of Ivory-bills in Arkansas.
Finally, I believe Alan Mueller's ARK. team will be making greater use of recordings and double-knock sounds than was done in the past to try and attract the elusive quarry.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
David Luneau reports that a newly-fashioned "peeper-cam" (essentially a camera at the end of a pole) has been devised for use in the Arkansas IBWO search, checking out prospective woodpecker cavities.
Geoff Hill will be using newly-designed vibration-triggered cameras from National Geographic in the Florida search to better, and more selectively, capture images at prospective woodpecker sites in the Choctawhatchee.
And Bobby Harrison reports he will be setting up both still and animated (head-moving) IBWO decoys in January in his pursuit of Ivory-bills in Arkansas.
Finally, I believe Alan Mueller's ARK. team will be making greater use of recordings and double-knock sounds than was done in the past to try and attract the elusive quarry.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, December 25, 2008
-- Just More Holiday Fare --
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just a couple more seasonal offerings today:
Some more seasonal music for the Holiday...:
(George Winston's "The Holly and the Ivy" arrangement)
And another blogger has posted this old 25-min."Twilight Zone" Christmas episode (it's 50's-ish schmaltzy, but so-be-it, still classic).
(P.S. -- if you're a Rod Serling fan, most all the old Twilight Zone episodes are available on the Web, for free, at various sites.)
http://classicshowbiz.blogspot.com/2008/12/twilight-zone-christmas-episode-1960.html
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just a couple more seasonal offerings today:
Some more seasonal music for the Holiday...:
(George Winston's "The Holly and the Ivy" arrangement)
And another blogger has posted this old 25-min."Twilight Zone" Christmas episode (it's 50's-ish schmaltzy, but so-be-it, still classic).
(P.S. -- if you're a Rod Serling fan, most all the old Twilight Zone episodes are available on the Web, for free, at various sites.)
http://classicshowbiz.blogspot.com/2008/12/twilight-zone-christmas-episode-1960.html
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
-- Peace On Earth, Goodwill To All --
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
May it someday be so. . . .
Merry Christmas and a Bright New Year to all.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
May it someday be so. . . .
Merry Christmas and a Bright New Year to all.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)