-- Hill To Speak --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Auburn's Dr. Hill speaks to the Linnaean Society of New York on the search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker at 7:30 pm. on Sept. 25 in Lindner Hall of the AMERICAN MUSEUM OF NATURAL HISTORY (free admission if you're in the area). Other talks by previous searchers are scattered around the country between now and then as well.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- 3 Thought Experiments --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Another ramble:

1) Virtually every day while driving or walking a roadway around here I spy a few deer emerging from the woods' edge. Yet these are but a tiny fraction of the 1000's more present I don't see. In fact, I see more deer from the roadways then I ever see when actually in the woods, where they no doubt hear/see me first and scamper before being viewed --- if seen at all it is usually a brief fleeing view (hmmm...). They are easily the largest creatures in our woods and yet I observe very few of these prolific, land-based mammals considering how many are actually out there --- should it really come as a surprise then that a very scarce, flying, tree-dwelling bird could stay out-of human sight with far greater ease?

2) Imagine that your lifetime experience and knowledge of birds is what it always has been EXCEPT that you've never seen nor heard of hummingbirds EVER! What would you think, then, if someone came along and told you all about hummers, their description and behavior? You'd think they were NUTS!! There couldn't conceivably be a BIRD like that. Either the reporter was a liar or idiot, or was describing some sort of large insect, certainly not a bird. THAT'S what prior entrenched experience would lead you to believe because your ability to comprehend all the possibilities for birds is so limited.

3) American crows are common in my area. If I said I saw 3 or 5 or 10 crows yesterday I'd be believed without a speck of documentation of any kind; no questions asked. But if I said I saw 50,000 crows yesterday, it wouldn't be believable. Somewhere between 10 and 50,000 is a "tipping point" going from blind acceptance to questioning doubt to outright rejection of the claim. And there is no one magic number that all individuals would agree on as representing that tipping point. At root, much of the Ivory-billed debate is simply people perceiving different tipping points in viewing highly-imprecise evidence.

In summary:
Large creatures DO routinely remain hidden from human view in the forest. Behavior that sounds unlikely to entrenched human logic, may not be. And evidence is rarely as black-and-white as it is painted to be, but comes in shades of gray, not easily sorted out. Too often what skeptics put forth as evidence for Ivory-bill extinction is little more than non-scientific conjecture and preconceptions, and what they practice is not so much skepticism as it is the creation of doubt (not altogether dissimilar from what Holocaust or moon-landing or global-warming deniers do).

The Big Woods and Choctawhatchee final summaries from last season haven't even been issued yet; certain details from last season from other areas likely won't even be publicly released because skeptics have had a 'chilling effect' on the release of some kinds of info; and for the first time in 60+ years an actual semi-comprehensive approach to searching for IBWOs across the Southeast is at last getting underway... in short, the broad search for Ivory-bills is finally getting serious for the first time ever, and yet, before work is even completed, an all-knowing few have again proclaimed the species extinct and persuaded gullible others of that view.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- In Memoriam --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In these days of slow Ivory-bill news, another diversion today... apologies in advance to those who only stop by here for IBWO news, or who have little interest in cagebirds:

Since the announcement last Friday of "Alex" the African Grey's sudden death I've watched with much interest the reactions of people as the news spread outward in concentric circles far and wide. Virtually every major news outlet has covered the story, and Alex just had his own obituary in the NY Times, a bird mind you; and on a day when Congressional hearings are reviewing the most important political story of the moment (the Iraq War and the American 'surge'), and also a day (Sept. 11) that is the anniversary of the worst attack ever on American soil, what is the most emailed story on both the NY Times and NPR websites (last time I checked): the death of Alex!! Meanwhile, on a 'Yahoo Group' memorial listserv for Alex, 100's of messages of condolence and grief stream in each day. It must be of some major comfort to Dr. Irene Pepperberg (his keeper of 30 years), who likely never imagined the number of people her work and her companion had touched.

Those of us who bear a strong innate interest/fascination with birds, often feel a bit oddball living amongst a majority whose passion tilts towards dogs or cats, or even inanimate objects like cars (do we have a gene mutation?); so it is heartening to witness this outpouring of shared emotion in such a public way over a bird; we do have company afterall. Be they parrots, or soaring raptors, or hummingbirds at our backyard feeders, or quacking ducks, or city pigeons bobbing for morsels at our feet, birds are wondrous creatures to behold, and their lives enrich ours.

To Dr. Pepperberg: may the profound grief engulfing you, be ever-so-slightly diminished by the multitude of people sharing it with you. And to Alex, wherever you are, may your spirit fly free in a place where rainbows shine, joy abounds, and Carolina Parakeets and Ivory-billed Woodpeckers still flap and sail in the breeze, right alongside you.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- But Enough About Ivory-bills --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The current (Oct.) issue of Birder's World Magazine includes an article on the claimed Eskimo Curlew sighting last year in Nova Scotia (written by the observer):

http://www.birdersworld.com/brd/default.aspx?c=a&id=972

....maybe extinction ain't what it used to be!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- North Carolina Too --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Independent searcher Jerry Condrey of North Carolina is convinced he saw two Ivory-bills in the Lake Waccamaw/Green Swamp region of N.C. (southeast corner, and not too far from Alexander Wilson's famous IBWO encounter of 200 years ago) a few years back, and plans to revitalize his search come January 2008, being assisted by Richard Lyttle (see prior post). He also indicates that some "high profile institutions" may be involved in the January search, as well.

Again, any emphasis on South and North Carolina is intriguing given decades of focus (what little focus there was) primarily on certain southern Gulf states. Still awaiting to hear from Cornell which regions other than Arkansas and S.C. they may concentrate on this coming season based on their Mobile Team's conclusions from the prior season.
.............................................................

From the Web Grab Bag:

I feel compelled to mention for any who might be interested and haven't heard, that "Alex," Dr. Irene Pepperberg's African Grey Parrot/companion/work colleague was found dead in his cage unexpectedly on Friday of unknown causes. A press release is scheduled for Monday and a necropsy will seek the cause of death. Alex was the subject of much published research into animal learning and cognition, both in the professional and popular press, and Dr. Pepperberg's close companion for 30 years (longer than most marriages these days!). I presume some sort of memorial pages will soon be available on the Web, or anyone so inclined can send a contribution to:

The Alex Foundation
c/o Dr. Irene Pepperberg
Department of Psychology/MS-062
415 South Street
Brandeis University
Waltham, MA 02454
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- South Carolina Searchin' --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The official South Carolina Ivory-billed Woodpecker Working Group is seeking searchers for the next search season (beginning around mid-Nov.). See notice here:

http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/TNBD.html#1189105192

Also, in S.C., independent searcher Richard Lyttle continues to seek assistance, as well, in his efforts to document the species' presence there:

http://www.ibwsearches.com

On a sidenote, Auburn's Dr. Hill voices further optimism here.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- New Arkansas Times Article --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New "Arkansas Times" article here:

http://www.arktimes.com/Articles/ArticleViewer.aspx?ArticleID=6072a1a2-ddea-4e22-b652-bce0be55768e

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Of Interest --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Helen Snyder reports that her ornithologist husband Noel's monograph "Causes of the Decline of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker" will soon be available from the Western Foundation of Vertebrate Zoology. She says it's not quite listed yet but will soon be among the monographs offered here:

http://www.wfvz.org/html/pub_prog.html

(estimated price $20; about 60 pgs. and should be excellent)

--- on a sidenote, a prior volume of Noel's, "The Carolina Parakeet: Glimpses of a Vanished Bird," may also be of interest to some.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- The Ghost Bird: Jabiru? --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It's been over a week since reports of a Jabiru visiting Mississippi surfaced... and stiiiiill the enormous, gawky, impossible-to-miss critter hasn't been relocated. Hmmmm... :

1) Rick Wright, a very credible member of the birding community, first reported the bird on the Web, BUT never saw it himself (in fact, it's not clear to me IF ANY experienced birders ever saw it); he merely received still photos of the bird from a catfish farm where the supposed bird supposedly set down supposedly on Aug 24 (and the only photo released on the Web looks like a possible Photoshop candidate).

2) After-the-fact, OTHER non-birders in the area very conveniently reported having seen the bird around other fish farms one or two weeks prior to the announcement (...but again, no established birders I'm aware of).

3) With birders flocking into the area the gee-normous bird mysteriously vanished and hasn't been re-found.

4) There are no sound recordings or feathers or DNA evidence for the bird's presence, nor so far as I'm aware, any video.

Does something smell fishy here... I mean besides the catfish farms? Not only has a Jabiru not been seen in Mississippi in 60 years, one has NEVER been seen there.
Do I believe a Jabiru actually set down in Mississippi in August? --- YES, I do (for reasons I won't even bother with), but do I believe the evidence presented thus far on the Web could be torn to shreds by someone skeptically-bent on doing so --- you betcha! (because skepticism is the easiest game around).

No substantial IBWO news for the moment, and likely nothing prior to last season's final summary reports being released. Several IBWO talks will be given around the country this month, so watch your local listings, and George Butler's "The Lord God Bird" documentary still scheduled for mid-Sept. theatre release. Otherwise, good time for chillin' out... except for those yet throwing conniptions over the whole potentially $27 million affair....
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- 'nuther Big Bird in the News --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sesame Street, NOT! :

As many know, a putative ;-) Jabiru materialized out of thin air in Mississippi recently (huge, striking, almost comical-looking bird... not unlike some others occasionally mentioned on this blog...) Rarely seen in the U.S., it created a stir in birding circles, especially for those close enough by car, train, plane, or Nimbus 2000 to go look for it. Anyway, can't help but wonder how much excitement there would be over this rogue bird had there not been an accompanying diagnostic photograph supporting it's arrival. Without the supposed photos, would it's improbable presence be questioned and immediately dismissed as "not credible," "moonshine-induced," or simply, "no way"?
IBWO skeptics would say this is exactly the point --- there are photos of the bird! --- people claimed seeing one AND have photos to verify!! Of course Jabiru don't reside high in dense forest canopies and inside tree cavities, but hang out conveniently in fields... which can make a difference (moreover, all of this assumes the purported photos are authentic --- haven't seen what the evidence for that is yet, other than trust --- afterall we're surrounded by stringers and hoaxers these days --- and oddly, the huge stork hasn't been relocated since its initial cyberspace splash).

[none of this means I doubt the report's validity; it's merely a recognition that I possess no direct evidence either the report, the photos, or the bird are real, beyond my blind trust in some of those doing the reporting --- what some might call 'faith-based ornithology'...]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Just A Ramble --

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sightings, sounds, searches, and yes, science, continue... as does spreading skepticism. The skeptics' echo chamber reverberates with the claim that Ivory-bills are extinct, and thus any claimed evidence is automatically viewed through the prism of that premise, and then dismissed in favor of alternative conjectures. Skeptics' faith in the ability of humans to find and photograph rare creatures is paramount, despite the number that have previously gone missing for decades.

The downside of having the fuzzy Auburn video released publicly is that it gives skeptics yet another instance to say, "see, that's inconclusive." Through some sort of twisted logic, cynics view anything that is not conclusive of Ivory-bills existing as somehow supportive of them not existing. It's as if someone took pieces of evidence that tied someone to a crime, but, because the pieces weren't definitive, instead used them to argue the accused must be innocent. Non-definitive evidence is simply non-definitive evidence, it does not support one side more than another (and certainly not the naysaying side).

Certain subjects (abortion, animal rights, creationism vs. evolution, come to mind) can hardly be debated anymore because protagonists start from such different underlying assumptions, that agreement cannot be reached. So too it has come to pass in the Ivory-billed debate. Underlying assumptions about extinction, about the ecology/behavior of Ivory-bills, about evidence, and about human capabilities, cannot be reconciled.

Time may tell in the next couple years if the Ivory-billed Woodpecker lives; unfortunately for skeptics, none of their arguments, nor time nor logic alone, can possibly tell in the short term if the species is extinct... but do give 'em credit for trying!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- The Votes Are In --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The guesses for the 3 Choctawhatchee birds' quiz in Birding Magazine have now been published in the latest issue here:

http://www.americanbirding.org/pubs/birding/archives/vol39no5p74w1.pdf

Not unexpectedly, there's no agreement on what the birds are, and indeed I was somewhat surprised by the sheer variety and range of responses. No one has a real clincher argument for their case, and many seemed to base their guesses on "first impression" sorts of arguments, although some put forth a few more technical reasons (I had thought someone with more precision photo-analysis techniques might actually try to measure wing-to-body, wing-to-tail, or similar type ratios, but this didn't happen --- the photo is probably just too vague). Finally, a bit surprised that most of the biggest names in American birding are missing from even taking a stab at it --- maybe an indication of just how inadequate the photo is for identification purposes.

Overall, 16 guesses centered on one or another waterbird, while 11 guesses went to woodpeckers, either PIWO or IBWO. Several folks did in fact think Ivory-billed Woodpeckers had been captured on film. Besides Pileated Woodpeckers, other guesses included a psitticine of some sort, Wood Ducks, Mallards, Anhingas, Cormorants, Bitterns, Cattle Egrets, Green or Night Herons. At least one individual noted, as I have previously, that it is not certain that the 3 birds are even the same, the top bird possibly being different from the other two.
My own loose first impression, way back, was Night Herons, and since I am almost always wrong on these type photo quizzes that can probably be ruled out ;-)
Anyway, a fun exercise... (now if we can just find the tree cavity these birds came out of ;-))
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Heeere We Go Again... --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Attention M. Collinson, L. Bevier, Sibley, Kaufman, Elmer Fudd, et.al.:

The old Auburn video from the Choctawhatchee has now been posted on the Web here:

http://www.auburn.edu/academic/science_math/cosam/departments/biology/faculty/webpages/hill/ivorybill/ibillvideo.html

Have at it!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- More on the Plan --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The USF&W Draft Recovery Plan is getting wide news publicity, with the focus unfortunately on the projected costs, which may never come to pass. The Plan's summary of past information, assessment of significant state-by-state locales, and forest/timber analysis are probably more important centers of focus.
By the way, I neglected to mention in the 2 previous posts that USF&W is seeking public comment on the Plan. Various skeptics, one might guess, are already making a concerted, coordinated effort to register their views.
Comments can be sent to the US F&W Field Office at 646 Cajundome Boulevard, Suite 400, Lafayette, Louisiana, 70506, or faxed 337-291-3139, or delivered via email to ibwplan@fws.gov. (However, some may need to be forewarned that comments like "this sucks" or "give it up, stringers" or "AAARRRRGGHHHHHHH!" might not be taken altogether seriously...)

As the saying goes, "those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them" --- 70 years ago the professional ornithology and birding community failed the Ivory-billed Woodpecker miserably; it took non-birders Mason Spencer and J.J. Kuhn to prove the species' existence, and tap the professionals' interest. Once again, too many in the birding community have given up early on the Ivory-bill based on limited data. At some point the Ivory-billed Woodpecker will indeed 'be history,' but there remains too much evidence that we ain't there yet, and finally a plan has been put forth to study the matter, not piecemeal, but in a comprehensive way. A lot of people contributed to this document, and I suspect there was a lot of disagreement/debate behind the scenes as to its final version, but now that it's before us we ought move forward instead of rehashing the same tiresome arguments over and over and over and....
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Thanks! --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I've had time to give the Recovery Plan draft at least a cursory once-over by now. First, a big THANK YOU! to the many involved in putting this document together --- clearly they took their subject very seriously (much moreso than several commentators on the Web treat it). The authors have stayed on topic and forged ahead despite all the sound and fury surrounding them; what results is a wonderful addition to the Ivory-bill literature. I'll caution in advance though that skeptics should only read the section on projected costs through the year 2010 for this endeavor, IF they have their double-dose blood pressure medicine immediately nearby... ;-)

For anyone familiar with the Ivory-billed literature large chunks of the report are repetitive of material already out there (and that's as it should be, since part of the goal was to pull together and summarize just such information). Thusly, large amounts of the 180 pages can be skimmed through quite rapidly. Moreover, many of the goals, objectives, priorities, protocols, plans, etc. listed are little more than stating the obvious, but again this is obligatory in such a report. It is worth reading closely the various state-by-state accounts of past claims and current habitat, for new tidbits. I was especially happy to see that some states of low historical importance were nonetheless given consideration in the report, even if downplayed (Tennessee probably being the most interesting of this group). However, there is no consideration given to Missouri or southern Illinois, which I think may be one shortcoming of the report, but there was only so much time to research.

The states seemingly most touted for future searching (so far as I can tell) are the expected ones: Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, South Carolina, Texas. Additionally, happily, parts of Alabama appear to be given serious consideration. And the report notes that in looking at all reports of IBWOs since 1944 virtually all of their previous historical range is represented, not just a few isolated locales.
Included (toward the end) also are significant sections of state timber analyses which will be of interest to many.

Further encouraging is that a great many of the tasks listed as needing to be done are given time-tables of 2-5 years for completion. Much of this will be dependent on funding, but at least the long-term nature of the commitment needed is herein recognized (as opposed to the rush-to-judgment, alternative-explanations-are-always-to-be-preferred-because-I-say-so crowd who think that TWO WHOLE YEARS of searching a couple places, without a clearcut photograph to show for it is somehow definitive). Also the report stresses at several points how little we know with certainty about the species' behavior and ecology --- this is in contrast to so much written by others implying certainty of some generalizations based on very limited data.

The weight of emphasis in this report however, is on Arkansas, the state that spawned the impetus for a written plan to begin with, and given limited funding and manpower, it is still unclear how many of the noted Southeastern areas of interest will actually receive significant attention.
This report was a long-time coming (promised at varying earlier times), but is likely worth the wait. Again, thanks to all who contributed to it.

One last side-note, and a bit of a surprise to me: David Kulivan (of David Kulivan fame, who I thought had long sworn off any further interest in this bird) is listed as a member of the "Habitat Working Group of the Recovery Team"!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Draft Recovery Plan For the Ivorybill --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

US Fish and Wildlife has finally posted its draft recovery plan (pdf) for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker here:

http://www.fws.gov/ivorybill/

(hmmm... talk about throwing red meat to skeptics ;-)))
...haven't had a chance to read it entirely myself though yet (it's close to 200 pgs., longer than Tanner's original monograph).

My hope to talk about 'infinity' turned into a piece too long to post, so will either cut it down or drop entirely, and replace with another post to make the same point (having to do with scientific thinking).

In the "let's-continue-to-beat-the-Luneau-video-to-death" category Louis Bevier has added some further skeptical (and "under construction") analysis to his website here:

http://web.mac.com/lrbevier/ivorybilled/Comparisons.html

At the same time skeptics insist no more money should be spent on the Ivory-bill, they persist in spending their own energy in attempts to debunk the bird's existence.

Gotta go now to check on some possible misinformation elsewhere about Birds of Paradise.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Stuff... --

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The original, brief video from Auburn of a purported Ivory-bill along the Chocatwhatchee should be up on the Web soon giving folks something fresh and new to bicker over ; - )

And Dan Mennill of the Auburn team has posted a few of the better examples of double-knocks from this past season here:

http://web2.uwindsor.ca/courses/biology/dmennill/IBWO/IBWO07News.html

....no doubt in actuality just a couple of those pesky Gadwalls giving some wing-clap high-fives to one another.

This week's (Aug. 17) edition of Science Magazine includes a 4+ page article by Erik Stokstad rehashing the Ivory-billed saga to this point. Doesn't add much new to the discussion, but with all the controversy involved I suspect Science felt pressure to do an update. There is behind-the-scenes mention of tension between Cornell's John Fitzpatrick and Jerry Jackson, but in reality conflicts amongst various protagonists within the Ivory-bill story have been around a long time (preceding the original Cornell announcement), even if not widely discussed (BTW, somewhat interesting to see elsewhere that Jackson is listed as the keynote speaker for next February's 2nd annual GALA celebration of Bobby Harrison's Ivory-billed Woodpecker Foundation).

Oddly, Auburn's Geoff Hill is quoted at times in regards to the Cornell evidence, but barely mentioned for his own claims in Florida. Hill is said to believe Cornell became convinced of the Ivory-bill's presence because they placed too much weight on the Luneau video --- this, I believe, is mistaken, or at least misleading. Cornell's commentary makes it fairly clear that Fitz was convinced the Ivory-bill existed by the multiple sightings and details of several credible observers. The Luneau video was (like the acoustic data) simply an additional piece of evidence desperately needed for moving ahead toward publication (but without it, Fitz would've been personally no less convinced as I understand it).

Kinda ashame we have to wait 'til winter for searching to begin anew --- there will probably be a number of piecemeal Ivorybilled-related items coming along through the remainder of summer but nothing amounting to much.

Not sure yet, but my next post may be on the topic of "infinity," so keep in mind that there are as many points in a 6-inch long line as there are in a 6-mile long line, or as many odd numbers as there are total integers in the real number system (although you'll be pleased to know I won't be presenting the mathematical proofs here).

Later....
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Pseudoskeptics Unite!! --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Many many years ago I belonged to the skeptics' organization, "Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal" (CSICOP), but after several years dropped membership once it appeared to me that, rather than objectively, open-mindedly studying their selected subjects, they were often specifically entering investigations solely with a goal of "debunking" --- in short, they had already decided what their general findings would be before initiating a study.
As in the Ivory-bill debate, often the 'debunking' simply meant finding an alternative explanation for an observed phenomenon and then assuming the alternative explanation was correct based, not on any actual evidence, but solely on perceived probabilities. Moreover, I don't recall them ever going after the indiscretions or weak science of more "establishment" parts of the medical and science community (but I haven't kept up with them over the years, so maybe they have). Though I still like a lot of the work they do I've never rejoined them.

Anyway, I was reminded of all this by a Wikipedia article sent to me from a reader (thanks) that all the "pseudo-skeptics" out there, and others, can read:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudoskepticism

....a number of interesting points made in the piece, including this list of "characteristics" of pseudoskeptics:

• The tendency to deny, rather than doubt
• Double standards in the application of criticism
• The making of judgments without full inquiry
• Tendency to discredit, rather than investigate
• Use of ridicule or ad hominem attacks in lieu of arguments
• Pejorative labeling of proponents as 'promoters', 'pseudoscientists' or practitioners of 'pathological science.'
• Presenting insufficient evidence or proof
• Assuming criticism requires no burden of proof
• Making unsubstantiated counter-claims
• Counter-claims based on plausibility rather than empirical evidence
• Suggesting that unconvincing evidence is grounds for dismissing it
• ----------------------------------------------------------------------------