Tuesday, January 24, 2023

-- Another Tool -- ...+Addenda

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Quick note:


Dwight Norris on FB points out this 3+ year-old Nature article on the use of eDNA (environmental DNA left behind by species) for locating rare animals:


https://tinyurl.com/2gcdwjce


I believe this is (or has been) used minimally, and unsuccessfully thus far, in searches for IBWO. In any event I suspect it would more likely be a tool for helping confirm the presence of IBWO in a given locale after they have been seen or heard, rather than a tool for finding Ivory-bills in the first place.

A bit of the cautionary note from the piece:


“…the technique is yet to convince some scientists, who say eDNA results aren’t robust enough to be used as the sole basis for making environment-management decisions that can have legal implications for governments and land owners.

“Early studies that used eDNA to pinpoint specific species were criticized because of the potential for improper handling of samples to cause cross-contamination, leading to false-positive results. Scientists using the method are detecting only trace amounts of genetic material, so even minute amounts of contamination from gloves or equipment can taint the results. But proponents of the field say that the recent adoption of rigorous protocols that avoid or detect contamination have largely addressed such issues.”

Chances are by now, fairly 'rigorous protocols' are indeed in place, though there could still be problems of interpretation. I don't know to what degree cost may be a limiting factor in how extensively eDNA is employed? In any event, from my very limited reading the technique has been less successful or used with birds than other animal forms... mammals have even been detected from short-term DNA in air (though this article is inspired by use for a bird).

Here is a Wikipedia article on the subject:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_DNA

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ADDENDUM:

Am trying to keep articles not directly pertaining to IBWOs to a minimum here, but this is such a nice story (from Dwight N. again), that I’ll it pass along… about a rehabbed Pileated Woodpecker maintained in a Michigan zoo:


https://www.grmag.com/museums-attractions/zoo-introduces-norman-the-pileated-woodpecker/?fbclid=IwAR3GI-avX7CZDPBicNIounDw9Ebc2g4rt34HqDRe0PP6mZ3vwllphM4Z2r0


I’ve never given much hope to any notion of possible captive breeding for IBWOs (as done with some other endangered avian species), but this piece is at least interesting. I do wish they said more about the actual habitat and daily routine of this bird, and it will be interesting to see what it’s longevity in captivity is.

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ADDENDUM2  1/29:


A couple more longish postings by Chuck Hunter over on Facebook worth a gander:


https://www.facebook.com/groups/ivorybillnews/posts/1528420804344451/?comment_id=1529215204265011


https://www.facebook.com/groups/ivorybillnews/posts/1528420804344451/?comment_id=1529215204265011&reply_comment_id=1529221810931017


Sorry for any redundancy of linking to Chuck yet again, but so many of the knowledgeable, thoughtful, objective sources I used to rely on years ago have passed from this arena that he is one of the few left whose views I’m willing to pass along as trustworthy. These posts are mostly historical info, and I always caution about the difficulty of knowing how reliable/valid/relevant such information (based on a small sample of IBWOs) really is for any limited, remnant population still around almost 100 years later, but certainly food for thought.


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ADDENDUM3  1/31:


NPR with a current audio report on the IBWO story (mostly rehash of where we're at):

https://www.kuaf.com/show/ozarks-at-large/2023-01-30/federal-extinction-declaration-decision-for-ivory-billed-woodpeckers-imminent


...the USFWS decision is likely still a couple months away, so don't read too much into the word "imminent" in the story title.


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ADDENDUM4  1/31:


Apologies for all the addenda, but am waiting for more significant news to start a new post.  The below again is recent history, old news for all well familiar with it, but definitely of interest for the many new folks entering the IBWO arena. Hat tip once again to Dwight Norris (Facebook) for referencing it, as it comes from one of the most respected, long-term IBWO searchers out there, Paul Sykes (who’s been at this for decades since the 1960s), a nice summary of his searching:


https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2039&context=usgsstaffpub&fbclid=IwAR1EUsR6ZoTTFaXJkBAOdiHTy17IWw-2omII45B8jATlAQp4LbpiIJ_9hVs


His efforts are of interest in themselves, and his conclusions are important as well, because of his experience and contacts over time. Additionally, years ago he and Steve Holzman spent significant time attempting to deduce the diagnostic features of IBWO scraping and bark scaling (as have many others) only to conclude in the end that we simply don’t know definitively how to separate IBWO work from other work… indeed, if we did, we would surely by now have a clear photo of an Ivory-bill from an automatic camera focused on such work — I’ve long argued that the failure of remote automatic cameras to capture an IBWO (rather than the failure of humans to observe them) is the single most damning evidence against IBWO survival in any given area.

By now, Steve is largely skeptical and pessimistic about IBWO survival… and he’s earned the right to that conclusion from the multifold efforts he put in. With that said, I'm sure no one would be any more excited/ecstatic were definitive proof of the bird's existence to now arise.


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ADDENDUM5 2/4:


Matt Courtman’s next monthly IBWO Zoom meeting is this Monday evening (2/6), again at 8pm EST., details here (free to join):

https://www.facebook.com/events/570295411419641/?ref=newsfeed


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ADDENDUM6  2/5:


Dwight N. has posted five more lengthy entries from Chuck Hunter on Facebook (actually the last one, #5, is an old posting from Bill Pulliam making the same point about IBWO density that Chris Haney emphasizes and makes well more recently in his volume “Woody’s Last Laugh”). 

The posts are mostly of a historical nature or commentary (much of it about ‘signs’ of IBWOs, i.e. sounds, dks, kents, flight patterns, behavior etc., but also, in #4, some reference to more recent history since 2005); certainly worth reading for those unfamiliar with much of it. I think #3, with the Reynard information, is the most interesting of the bunch:


#1 https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156630967691615/


#2  https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156644977690214/


#3  https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156661604355218/


#4  https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156674251020620/


#5  https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156682907686421/


The historical information is great and (with caution) instructive, but what I'm still hopeful for within the next say 5 weeks is perhaps some more and better publicly-released evidence....



Saturday, January 14, 2023

-- 2023 Underway --

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Many of us believe that the drone footage shared by Project Principalis awhile back (with USFWS) is the best recent evidence of an extant Ivory-billed Woodpecker to emerge recently. Chuck Hunter (one of the foremost experts on IBWOs, retired from USFWS) has now given his analysis of it on a Facebook group, and it is worth reading. It coincides closely with my own view of that footage. I'm less confident of some of his points (and he is appropriately cautious), but am in accord with the basic conclusion that the bird seems to be either an IBWO or some sort of leucistic PIWO — I expressed that view quite awhile back here on the blog, and also did so recently in private communication with another individual.  Some will likely continue to try to argue the bird may be a Red-headed Woodpecker or possibly even a non-woodpecker species, all of which seem eliminated in my view.


https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6088471191174260/


The post includes one of the enhanced/zoomed versions of the drone footage for viewing.  Even in this form it is, as seems agonizingly always the case, difficult to feel completely certain about several details when so many variables are in play. Also, be sure to read Chuck's lengthy comment to his own post-comment -- it gets quite into the weeds of the old arguments that used to be more commonplace in this arena, and I would almost say have faded away since Bill Pulliam passed (like myself, Chuck gives Bill a lot of credit for earlier work done in this debate). He also mentions Louis Bevier who was a prestigious and active skeptic at the time, but who, for reasons I won't get into, left the whole debate and is unlikely to comment on any new evidence or information (not sure if he even follows it any longer).


...In other news, if you're not already aware of it, Matt Courtman holds another Monday evening Zoom meeting (free) this Monday at 8pm EST. He has also posted an update of his current search in the Tensas area. You can visit his Mission Ivorybill page for more details:

https://www.facebook.com/MissionIvorybill

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ADDENDUM  1/18/23


Handful of folks are dropping me notes/links lately about various matters that I’m already familiar with… most of which I won't spend time addressing, unless more precision, detail, consistency, credibility, accuracy, reliability, transparency, and rigor is added to the issues involved, and major problems relieved. Am glad to see Chuck Hunter weigh in elsewhere (maybe futilely ;) to add some sanity to a few of the matters (he has more patience than I do!). ...And I’ll simply add that people ought understand how eBird works/functions before making nonsensical/embarrassing submissions there. Shooting oneself in the foot is not usually a good look.

As we approach the time USFWS will make a determination I hope we don't enter an utter clownshow stage...



Wednesday, January 04, 2023

— Biding Time Again —

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New year, so feel like I oughta post something!... Several damp, gray, cold days had me stuck inside at the computer recently, just looking at or playing around with a few numbers. I may be way off on some of these, so feel free to correct if you have more updated or accurate information...

As best I could roughly estimate (from online sources):


National Audubon Society has ~600,000 members (I assume most of those are North American, but don’t really know the breakdown)


American Birding Association (ABA) membership is around 20,000 (again don’t know the breakdown worldwide), although this figure seemed oddly low to me??? (so someone got a better figure?)


Cornell Lab of Ornithology  ~75,000 members


worldwide estimate for those on eBird: 200,000, probably with at least a quarter of those North American?


…again, all verrrry rough figures, so feel free to correct... but anyway, needless to say, a lot of folks interested to varying degrees in birds.


Finally, on social media there are well over 6000 folks following sites devoted to the Ivory-billed Woodpecker; though not necessarily all are IBWO enthusiasts.  Some of those would be full-fledged skeptics who only follow along to monitor what is being stated (or misstated) on such sites; and some are folks who think the species is most likely extinct, but still hold out some slim hope. Others are simply interested in cryptids in general, so include IBWO among their follows. The remainder, maybe perhaps 4000, could be “true believers” or so-called “IBWO-truthers” who think (or even feel certain) that the species exists. Worth noting though that most of those 4000-or-so are almost certainly NOT serious or long-time, experienced birders (some are, but not most)… as indicated if one follows much of the serious birding community on a site like Twitter or a birding forum the derision for IBWO-belief remains pretty broad-based and growing. The treatment of Matt Courtman by his own Louisiana active-birding community is another indication, as is the treatment, for that matter, of almost any claimant by the wider birding community (…that treatment being anything from shunning to snickering at, and a whole lot of eye-rolling). In large part both the 'believer' and 'skeptic' communities reside now in their own self-contained, self-reinforcing bubbles.


So once again, unless new, significant evidence is introduced (and, that could happen!…) the USFWS bureaucracy will soon be weighing the voices of a small, highly vocal group versus an increasingly impatient throng of knowledgeable birders and conservationists… and making a decision… a decision that will have no bearing whatsoever on whether the IBWO actually exists, but could have bearing on the perceptions of any few remaining who are still neutral on the subject... while no doubt also spurring further contentious debate over the "evidence" that already exists (such as it is). It would be great to be a fly on the wall at the USFWS proceedings/discussions. I have no idea how many folks are in on those talks, nor whether their final decision must be unanimous or simply majority-rule. Meanwhile, IF an IBWO nestsite is to be found we are approaching the time of year it ought happen (...as I've probably said for 16 years in a row now ;)


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ADDENDUM  1/7:


Just a quick note, since Dwight Norris on Facebook just posted this nice clip of a Pileated at work:


https://youtube.com/shorts/6N0dxqfxLMU?feature=share


I used to get pics sent to me, with some regularity, of trees with multiple large woodpecker holes, but just so folks know, this is completely typical for PIWO and not at all typical of IBWO. Examples from the Web:







(in 15 years, I’ve probably had less than 5 pics sent to me that I thought were even possible IBWO cavities... foraging/bark-scaling work is a little more interesting, though also hugely difficult to interpret from photos... and automatic cameras focused on putative foraging work has never captured a clear IBWO).


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