-- New Year, Will It Be Same Ol' Same Ol'? --

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1)  In just 6 more months the blog celebrates its 20th anniversary (…if it makes it that long), and I’ll probably depart regular posting at that point (almost have already!) given the political darkness I expect to befall the country well before then.😕  With so few searchers, sporadically searching so few areas in any rigorous systematic way and with limited resources, it’s hard to imagine a positive or definitive outcome over that time period, when a species has already proven itself so capable of evading human encounters (if it persists at all).

I always remember asking Bill Pulliam about IBWO prospects in a certain area and him casually saying that if they existed there they deserved to be left alone -- if they had made it this far along, they could continue to do so (…until perhaps their numbers might rise to a point of being more easily detectable). Make no mistake, the problem of actually protecting this species (from human hordes), if ever found, may indeed be just as great a problem as locating them has been for 80+ years. In short, conclusively documenting the species, while cause for some celebration, would really just be the start of yet the bigger issue/debate over what to do next???... perhaps just as acrimonious a squabble as what we’ve already been through.

Anyway, always hoping for the best, or at least some sort of surprise, but realistically, have very low expectations for the next 6 months.

2)  About a year ago I inquired of Dr. Chris Haney if his wonderful volume (that we all love), "Woody's Last Laugh" would have a second edition, and he said that he didn't oppose it but there were no current plans for doing so. So I inquired again recently and haven't heard back, but assume the answer is the same. I'd actually like to see a different publishing house take the book over, do better editing, and add an index at the end (but I don't know what, if any, contractual obligations Chris may be under).  Moreover, at a minimum, Chris would probably need to include material on the USFWS hearings and on some of the Latta-group Louisiana claims.... as well as any number of other claims/storylines from the last couple years he might want to add to a new edition -- i.e., a second edition wouldn't necessarily be an easy/simple task for Dr. Haney depending on his own time constraints. In any event if you want to write the original publisher encouraging them to do a new edition, feel free (in case it has  any influence). Their website, with a contact link, is here:

https://www.collectiveinkbooks.com/changemakers-books/

 The original volume was already almost 500 pages though, and there's a limit to how many pages the mass market will bear, so again, considerable editing would be crucial.  Unless or until Chuck Hunter produces an Ivory-bill volume, Haney's is the most comprehensive one we have, with prolific footnotes almost as vital as the main text.

[UPDATE:  just today (1/7) I heard from Dr. Haney that, lo-and-behold, a recent meeting with the publisher to discuss a new edition WAS in fact scheduled but missed due to weather/travel issues, and he's not sure when it will be re-scheduled (the individual travels internationally). So sounds like something is in the works, hooray!]

3)  Speaking of.... In the last month, Chuck Hunter has posted further occasional long Ivory-bill history posts on a couple of the IBWO Facebook accounts (from Dwight Norris and Fred Virrazzi). I won't link here (just trying to minimize historical material), but I do hope most of you catch his detailed, informative postings, which take care to indicate what is established 'fact' and what is more speculative or debatable in our Ivory-bill knowledge.

4)  About every other year I link once to Sufjan Stevens' haunting ballad to the Ivory-billed Woodpecker, and since I didn't link in 2024 may as well start this melancholy year off with it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-GDRP8eAtg

Enough for now.... (maybe another post before end of month, IF my head doesn't explode on Inauguration Day).

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-- For Those Who Celebrate --

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Today is Taylor Swift's Birthday! ...The ONLY holiday I'm celebrating this particular December!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5TMU6916U8

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— Some History…. to string you all along! — +Addendum

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Almost 20 years ago a British birder accused those of us keeping the Ivory-bill story alive of being “stringers” — basically, folks who keep posting things about the IBWO (because there’s plenty of stuff available for posting!) to keep ’stringing’ the gullible along…. and now almost 20 years later, as I watch the redundant, repetitive, speculative, often non-credible or unscientific nature of so much of what comes along pertaining to the IBWO (not to mention misinformation and mis-labelled pics), that charge of stringing folks along stings more than it did back in the day of high hopes. Thus, my reluctance (previously mentioned) to keep posting material that does anything less than offer fresh and credible evidence for the Ivory-bill’s persistence.

BUT, after some hemming-and-hawing, I’ll make an exception for this Facebook post from Chuck Hunter because of it’s length and substance — very nice historical piece, but which I’ll still caution has uncertain pertinence to where (if anywhere) IBWOs are today, let alone their current habits, behavior, numbers, etc.:

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/14u2tt7UMt/

I assume (don’t know) that Chuck is actively writing a volume that will eventually have all this info included, but until then we at least get a sneak peak via the internet. Again, it’s all historical, but certainly more detailed than you'll find elsewhere (and interesting in its own right).

The one tiny aspect I might’ve liked to have seen him expand a bit more on is the Ivory-bill’s sheer power of flight (he briefly mentions) — more than most woodpeckers IBWOs likely could cover long distances in a short manner of time. I don’t recall specifics but there are estimates in the literature of how far an Ivory-bill could travel in a single typical day. While early IBWOs were probably NOT nomadic, a nomadic lifestyle may have been adopted out of sheer necessity as habitat destruction became widespread. Indeed, it’s almost impossible for me to imagine IBWOs remaining today except by utilizing frequent (almost routine) riverine paths from one locale to another as needed — locations good enough for mere day-to-day survival were probably not difficult to find; the question is could they find locales good enough repeatedly for successful breeding and raising young, a more resource-intensive enterprise.

Anyway, enjoy Chuck’s narrative…. ohhh, and, it’s a bit of a stretch this year… but, try having a Happy Thanksgiving!

UPDATE 12/9: Chuck has now put an expanded (loooong) version of this post on his own Facebook page (where he usually avoids the IBWO controversy), here:

https://www.facebook.com/chuck.hunter.353250/posts/1107380317464862?rdid=QLsOXITaTKT8PHKm

(it includes more of his own personal background, going back to his youth, with the whole IBWO subject)

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ADDENDUM 11/30:

I may as well toss in here that a critical article by Pawel Michalak has now gone public:

https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/74/11/740/7808594?login=false

It combines in one place most all of the standard arguments against IBWO evidence (some arguments better than others). The one smidgen of something newish is his mention of a rare “squawk” call by Great Horned Owls (primarily agitated females, that he admits wouldn’t normally be calling during the day) as yet another candidate (among many) as a sound-alike for Ivory-bill ‘kents.’ I can't recall if I've ever heard mention of this among the many woodland sounds that can sound kent-like.

— Post-Election, Post-Truth —

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Mathematician Peter Woit has written this take (that I largely agree with, though not in all details) following the American election:

https://www.math.columbia.edu/~woit/wordpress/?p=14214

Somewhat ironic that the IBWO debate, from my perspective, has also become a bit of a shambles over the last 20 years paralleling the downward spiral of American politics, democracy, and simple civility. Many say history runs in cycles… if so, we’re living in a cycle I regret witnessing. It's hard to imagine any hope left for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker…. the land/habitat it requires will be scoffed at by the new American Administration as land better suited for oil/gas drilling, or new golf courses, or just raping the timber because it’s there. Land = nothing but $$$ to this crowd (i.e., development).  The whole concept of ‘wildlife refuges’ can probably be kissed away now as a libtard luxury (even while used by plenty of ‘conservatives’); and the USFWS could easily be among the many government agencies facing the chopping block if Donald has his way (…I assume many current employees are already scrambling for employment elsewhere). In the long run the loss of habitat and agencies may actually be among the least of the travesties to be committed over the next four years by whatever garbage agrees to serve the new Administration.

Meanwhile, we head into another winter, realistically the most likely (perhaps the only likely) season of the year to find and document Ivory-bills given the bareness of foliage. And while plenty of (tangential) IBWO-related articles/videos keep popping up I'm leaving them on the cutting room floor until something by way of new and credible evidence of existence is brought forth.

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-- Broken Record --

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Feel like a broken record, but (while waiting for anything both significant and credible to come along) will repeat what I’ve voiced previously….

If Ivory-bills persist they must:

1)  forage for food each day, in turn meaning they must fly to and from roost holes each day.

2)  successfully breed (and even many that aren’t successful would attempt it and have nest holes).

Yet: 

Not a single example of photographic evidence since the 40’s can be definitively labelled as a living Ivory-bill; a definitive example WILL BE self-evident by viewing it, requiring NO extended analysis of any sort to explain why it may or must be an Ivory-billed Woodpecker (…and IF there is to be ‘extended analysis’ it needs to come from neutral, disinterested, objective 3rd parties, not solely from individuals already committed to a belief in IBWO persistence; impartiality is an important aspect of science, and largely abandoned in the Ivorybill debate).

There are plenty of excuses for why humans haven’t attained such a clear photo/video of an IBWO, even when sightings are followed up on within 24 hours. The only excuses though for why an automatic remote camera focused on a cavity or foraging site or flyway has never attained a clear shot (nor any identifiable DNA found at such a site) are that either the species is gone or, after decades of study, humans remain embarrassingly incompetent at accurately identifying active IBWO cavities and foraging work...

While we know what IBWOs look like, we do not know, DO... NOT... KNOW precisely what IBWOs in 2024 sound like (nor the range of variability) when our only real basis for analysis is a tiny audio sample from the 1940s 1930s (which, according to many, is not even representative of their sounds then). Sample size is important in science, indeed vital…. and we have precious little sample size to draw many firm conclusions about Ivory-bills at all — indeed that was the problem of Tanner’s original study — conclusions/generalizations drawn (and blindly accepted) from too small and isolated a sample…. nice speculative guesswork, but not firm deduction.

My only conclusion from all this, and purely its own problem-filled speculation, is again that IBWOs are now mostly inhabitants of the upper forest canopies, rarely spotted or monitored well by humans — cavities, woodwork, perched or ground sightings or evidence below the upper-half tree-level are likely not IBWO (though perhaps in flight they travel lower). The Latta drone footage capturing 2 putative Ivory-bills high up in Louisiana remains for me the best evidence we have to date (better than virtually all the other evidence that receives wide publicity). Postulating they spend the bulk of their time at a level remote from most human viewing (maybe even only emerging from cavities when feeding or seeking mates) is the only way I know to explain the paucity, incredible paucity, of confirmed visual data or photographic evidence for this species after this amount of time and effort specifically in locales of claims (...always remote possibility the species has moved to other locales, even states, little searched).

p.s. (side-note)…. folks can quit sending me links to the story of the company wishing to genetically revive IBWOs — a story of little interest to me:

a)  am somewhat skeptical of the company itself, but putting that aside, am skeptical that the laboratory techniques used can be successful with a bird species (at least in my lifetime)

b)  like many others, even if potentially successful, I believe there are better uses for such money

At this point, my interest is mostly confined to demonstrating the Ivorybill’s persistence SOMEwhere, and then discovering where else it may be and in what numbers. I doubt it can be saved, BUT am also someone who previously doubted that the California Condor, the Whooping Crane, or even the Bald Eagle could be saved -- so HEY I’m super impressed with what wildlife humanity CAN DO when handed the resources to apply their talents/knowledge! (though in this instance it may well be too little too late, given the overriding problem of even locating the birds -- and what a massive black-eye it will be for the birding and conservation communities IF this species IS found but too late for saving).

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-- Twiddlin' Thumbs --

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Yeah, just twiddling thumbs here (while focused on other things), but probably ought to post something…. feel like, with the exception of some of the Latta Louisiana evidence, there’s been remarkably little substantive content ever since the Big Woods and Choctawhatchee searches shut down.... like pedaling a stationary bike, and going nowhere. :((  And without conducting large-scale transect-driven searches I'm not confident what will be discovered, though it's plausible that newer technology may yet get the job done.

Next July marks the crazy 20th anniversary of this blog (assuming it limps along to that point). If no better documentation by then, I s’pose I’ll try to wrap things up somehow (not concluding that the species is extinct, but simply that I have too many more important things to expend time/energy on)… even if the bird is definitively documented, I won’t be so interested in where the species is found (nor reporting much on that), but rather interested in:

1)  where ELSE it may persist (…and potential numbers)

2)  the nature of science and skepticism that led so many so astray

3)  how slim the chances are of saving it from extinction

Others will no doubt report extensively on any final success; I'll honestly be more interested in the reasons behind such prolonged and profound failure...

Anyway, for now, will just leave you with this viral video from the Web, perhaps a theme song for this blog ("Don't stop believin', hold onto that feelin'")  ;))

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lodFgsahdEs

ADDENDUM 9/25:

Lest you missed it, last night, Richard Goodall actually won the 2024 "America's Got Talent" Grand Finale prize ($1 million)! I actually, was rootin' for the dog act ;) but hey, CONGRATULATIONS Richard!!

His final performance of his signature song, with it's originators "Journey" is here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HP_RKV7f6o

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-- In Memory --

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Just wish to acknowledge that 7 years ago this week birder/farmer/scientist/iconoclast/independent-thinker Bill Pulliam passed away, too young at 56, leaving a certain gap in the IBWO debate that has never been filled. 

If you’ve never read it, still maybe worth perusing Bill’s old (almost 20 years ago) Terraserver analysis of potential southeast IBWO habitat that he patiently carried out, incredibly, with a dial-up connection, back in the day, from his home in rural Tennessee:

https://bbill.blogspot.com/2006/03/potential-ivory-billed-woodpecker.html

...and more long-ago stuff, but here were his various analyses of the forever-debated Luneau video:

http://bbill.blogspot.com/2009/02/summary-of-my-luneau-postings.html

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-- Oy Vey --

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OMG, I no longer know whether to laugh or to cry, but here’s the photo heading up a recent article on social media entitled “10 Fun Facts About The Ivory-Billed Woodpecker” (it only gets slightly better after this): 

(....Not a propitious start to August)

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— Pileated Fun —

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While just biding time, will pass along this wonderful Facebook post showing 3 Pileateds ‘frozen’ in place for seconds "over five minutes" as explained therein:

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/u6TcPi44ZaeMwpfv/

…while at it, will also throw in this old clip of a partial leucistic PIWO parent feeding its offspring:

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/oCPMmKVwLnE7Y4Lf/

…and a few more leucistic examples here:

With all the distractions and important stuff going on in the country for next few months, am debating how much time to even spend posting here, since I’m not expecting much significant, new IBWO content to cover, so if the blog goes silent for awhile, well just busy with other things.

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-- Not Too Encouraging --

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An interesting (if somewhat pessimistic) post from Fred V. on IBWO success and detection from scaling form, beetle presence, and tree type in any given locale:

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/3oCr8smMiHC8BACY/

I’m not willing to vouch for every assertion Fred makes here (for example: “From ~ 1840 to 1907 measured inbreeding was already high range wide”; not sure we know that?), but the gist sounds right, even without knowing with certainty the full range of the IBWO diet or their reproductive success rates of late. I certainly hope he is wrong here (but acknowledge he could very well be right):

“The IBWO total population is now very low.  Over 20 years there has only been ~ 18 to 22 different birds likely seen, some of these now dead."

With that said, he does note that "genetic issues could be critical by 2025" which is, in a sense, almost an optimistic take, since most skeptics would likely argue that genetic issues already prevailed decades ago.

Perhaps David Martin or Chuck Hunter will respond in comments to the post if they take issue with anything in particular in Fred’s overview.

And Fred ends with a teaser line about a microevolution hypothesis that he doesn’t spell out, but I s’pose may be fleshed out in a separate posting?

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-- Head Cams --

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John W. presents an updated recommendation for a head-cam (Akaso Brave 4) for IBWO searchers here (mentioning several others as well):

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CYY13-5Hx10nIxZEJxlH3TnXA90SHHL9/edit?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR34tdPOoloFqfNvvdQt04VExuj24J5KB0R5qxGfX54RQoi5hCgoUbPEo-U_aem_BNXPXFNs0HQN6Rw9BJalwg

By now, I’m not very optimistic about the probability of ANY ground-based, (shaky) human-operated camera capturing an adequate photo of a flying IBWO… for trying to persuade skeptics or serious birders, the results of the last 20+ years have been mostly abysmal, and I suspect only a skillfully-operated drone or an automatic remote cam focused on a cavity or foraging site may ever likely suffice (also despite 20 years of failure)... though IF an active cavity or foraging site is ever identified, well, then a 1950’s Brownie camera will be quite sufficient ;)

If one does have the desire/dollars to invest in a headcam be sure to factor in all the pertinent variables, besides quality, that may affect your choice (price, weight, ease-of-use, battery-duration, sturdiness, waterproofness, warranty), and there are plenty of other reviews of headcams online (look for truly independent reviews, not just manufacturer-promoted sites), and John suggests several features or specifications to keep in mind.

Meanwhile, the sighting claims for Ivorybills keep popping up across the internet, over and over and over again, and even those from folks who claim adamantly that they KNOW the difference between IBWOs and PIWOs (because of course they’ve seen dozens of PIWOs before), invariably, if they provide a clear enough photo, turn out to be easily ID’d as Pileated. :(  Go figure… (on a sidenote, I keep seeing the speculation made, and believed, that perhaps some IBWOs and PIWOs have cross-bred... NOOOO, these two separate species/genuses do not hybridize).

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