— Post-Election, Post-Truth —

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Mathematician Peter Woit has written this take (that I largely agree with, though not in all details) following the American election:

https://www.math.columbia.edu/~woit/wordpress/?p=14214

Somewhat ironic that the IBWO debate, from my perspective, has also become a bit of a shambles over the last 20 years paralleling the downward spiral of American politics, democracy, and simple civility. Many say history runs in cycles… if so, we’re living in a cycle I regret witnessing. It's hard to imagine any hope left for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker…. the land/habitat it requires will be scoffed at by the new American Administration as land better suited for oil/gas drilling, or new golf courses, or just raping the timber because it’s there. Land = nothing but $$$ to this crowd (i.e., development).  The whole concept of ‘wildlife refuges’ can probably be kissed away now as a libtard luxury (even while used by plenty of ‘conservatives’); and the USFWS could easily be among the many government agencies facing the chopping block if Donald has his way (…I assume many current employees are already scrambling for employment elsewhere). In the long run the loss of habitat and agencies may actually be among the least of the travesties to be committed over the next four years by whatever garbage agrees to serve the new Administration.

Meanwhile, we head into another winter, realistically the most likely (perhaps the only likely) season of the year to find and document Ivory-bills given the bareness of foliage. And while plenty of (tangential) IBWO-related articles/videos keep popping up I'm leaving them on the cutting room floor until something by way of new and credible evidence of existence is brought forth.

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-- Broken Record --

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Feel like a broken record, but (while waiting for anything both significant and credible to come along) will repeat what I’ve voiced previously….

If Ivory-bills persist they must:

1)  forage for food each day, in turn meaning they must fly to and from roost holes each day.

2)  successfully breed (and even many that aren’t successful would attempt it and have nest holes).

Yet: 

Not a single example of photographic evidence since the 40’s can be definitively labelled as a living Ivory-bill; a definitive example WILL BE self-evident by viewing it, requiring NO extended analysis of any sort to explain why it may or must be an Ivory-billed Woodpecker (…and IF there is to be ‘extended analysis’ it needs to come from neutral, disinterested, objective 3rd parties, not solely from individuals already committed to a belief in IBWO persistence; impartiality is an important aspect of science, and largely abandoned in the Ivorybill debate).

There are plenty of excuses for why humans haven’t attained such a clear photo/video of an IBWO, even when sightings are followed up on within 24 hours. The only excuses though for why an automatic remote camera focused on a cavity or foraging site or flyway has never attained a clear shot (nor any identifiable DNA found at such a site) are that either the species is gone or, after decades of study, humans remain embarrassingly incompetent at accurately identifying active IBWO cavities and foraging work...

While we know what IBWOs look like, we do not know, DO... NOT... KNOW precisely what IBWOs in 2024 sound like (nor the range of variability) when our only real basis for analysis is a tiny audio sample from the 1940s 1930s (which, according to many, is not even representative of their sounds then). Sample size is important in science, indeed vital…. and we have precious little sample size to draw many firm conclusions about Ivory-bills at all — indeed that was the problem of Tanner’s original study — conclusions/generalizations drawn (and blindly accepted) from too small and isolated a sample…. nice speculative guesswork, but not firm deduction.

My only conclusion from all this, and purely its own problem-filled speculation, is again that IBWOs are now mostly inhabitants of the upper forest canopies, rarely spotted or monitored well by humans — cavities, woodwork, perched or ground sightings or evidence below the upper-half tree-level are likely not IBWO (though perhaps in flight they travel lower). The Latta drone footage capturing 2 putative Ivory-bills high up in Louisiana remains for me the best evidence we have to date (better than virtually all the other evidence that receives wide publicity). Postulating they spend the bulk of their time at a level remote from most human viewing (maybe even only emerging from cavities when feeding or seeking mates) is the only way I know to explain the paucity, incredible paucity, of confirmed visual data or photographic evidence for this species after this amount of time and effort specifically in locales of claims (...always remote possibility the species has moved to other locales, even states, little searched).

p.s. (side-note)…. folks can quit sending me links to the story of the company wishing to genetically revive IBWOs — a story of little interest to me:

a)  am somewhat skeptical of the company itself, but putting that aside, am skeptical that the laboratory techniques used can be successful with a bird species (at least in my lifetime)

b)  like many others, even if potentially successful, I believe there are better uses for such money

At this point, my interest is mostly confined to demonstrating the Ivorybill’s persistence SOMEwhere, and then discovering where else it may be and in what numbers. I doubt it can be saved, BUT am also someone who previously doubted that the California Condor, the Whooping Crane, or even the Bald Eagle could be saved -- so HEY I’m super impressed with what wildlife humanity CAN DO when handed the resources to apply their talents/knowledge! (though in this instance it may well be too little too late, given the overriding problem of even locating the birds -- and what a massive black-eye it will be for the birding and conservation communities IF this species IS found but too late for saving).

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-- Twiddlin' Thumbs --

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Yeah, just twiddling thumbs here (while focused on other things), but probably ought to post something…. feel like, with the exception of some of the Latta Louisiana evidence, there’s been remarkably little substantive content ever since the Big Woods and Choctawhatchee searches shut down.... like pedaling a stationary bike, and going nowhere. :((  And without conducting large-scale transect-driven searches I'm not confident what will be discovered, though it's plausible that newer technology may yet get the job done.

Next July marks the crazy 20th anniversary of this blog (assuming it limps along to that point). If no better documentation by then, I s’pose I’ll try to wrap things up somehow (not concluding that the species is extinct, but simply that I have too many more important things to expend time/energy on)… even if the bird is definitively documented, I won’t be so interested in where the species is found (nor reporting much on that), but rather interested in:

1)  where ELSE it may persist (…and potential numbers)

2)  the nature of science and skepticism that led so many so astray

3)  how slim the chances are of saving it from extinction

Others will no doubt report extensively on any final success; I'll honestly be more interested in the reasons behind such prolonged and profound failure...

Anyway, for now, will just leave you with this viral video from the Web, perhaps a theme song for this blog ("Don't stop believin', hold onto that feelin'")  ;))

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lodFgsahdEs

ADDENDUM 9/25:

Lest you missed it, last night, Richard Goodall actually won the 2024 "America's Got Talent" Grand Finale prize ($1 million)! I actually, was rootin' for the dog act ;) but hey, CONGRATULATIONS Richard!!

His final performance of his signature song, with it's originators "Journey" is here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HP_RKV7f6o

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-- In Memory --

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Just wish to acknowledge that 7 years ago this week birder/farmer/scientist/iconoclast/independent-thinker Bill Pulliam passed away, too young at 56, leaving a certain gap in the IBWO debate that has never been filled. 

If you’ve never read it, still maybe worth perusing Bill’s old (almost 20 years ago) Terraserver analysis of potential southeast IBWO habitat that he patiently carried out, incredibly, with a dial-up connection, back in the day, from his home in rural Tennessee:

https://bbill.blogspot.com/2006/03/potential-ivory-billed-woodpecker.html

...and more long-ago stuff, but here were his various analyses of the forever-debated Luneau video:

http://bbill.blogspot.com/2009/02/summary-of-my-luneau-postings.html

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-- Oy Vey --

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OMG, I no longer know whether to laugh or to cry, but here’s the photo heading up a recent article on social media entitled “10 Fun Facts About The Ivory-Billed Woodpecker” (it only gets slightly better after this): 

(....Not a propitious start to August)

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— Pileated Fun —

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While just biding time, will pass along this wonderful Facebook post showing 3 Pileateds ‘frozen’ in place for seconds "over five minutes" as explained therein:

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/u6TcPi44ZaeMwpfv/

…while at it, will also throw in this old clip of a partial leucistic PIWO parent feeding its offspring:

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/oCPMmKVwLnE7Y4Lf/

…and a few more leucistic examples here:

With all the distractions and important stuff going on in the country for next few months, am debating how much time to even spend posting here, since I’m not expecting much significant, new IBWO content to cover, so if the blog goes silent for awhile, well just busy with other things.

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-- Not Too Encouraging --

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An interesting (if somewhat pessimistic) post from Fred V. on IBWO success and detection from scaling form, beetle presence, and tree type in any given locale:

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/3oCr8smMiHC8BACY/

I’m not willing to vouch for every assertion Fred makes here (for example: “From ~ 1840 to 1907 measured inbreeding was already high range wide”; not sure we know that?), but the gist sounds right, even without knowing with certainty the full range of the IBWO diet or their reproductive success rates of late. I certainly hope he is wrong here (but acknowledge he could very well be right):

“The IBWO total population is now very low.  Over 20 years there has only been ~ 18 to 22 different birds likely seen, some of these now dead."

With that said, he does note that "genetic issues could be critical by 2025" which is, in a sense, almost an optimistic take, since most skeptics would likely argue that genetic issues already prevailed decades ago.

Perhaps David Martin or Chuck Hunter will respond in comments to the post if they take issue with anything in particular in Fred’s overview.

And Fred ends with a teaser line about a microevolution hypothesis that he doesn’t spell out, but I s’pose may be fleshed out in a separate posting?

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-- Head Cams --

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John W. presents an updated recommendation for a head-cam (Akaso Brave 4) for IBWO searchers here (mentioning several others as well):

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CYY13-5Hx10nIxZEJxlH3TnXA90SHHL9/edit?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR34tdPOoloFqfNvvdQt04VExuj24J5KB0R5qxGfX54RQoi5hCgoUbPEo-U_aem_BNXPXFNs0HQN6Rw9BJalwg

By now, I’m not very optimistic about the probability of ANY ground-based, (shaky) human-operated camera capturing an adequate photo of a flying IBWO… for trying to persuade skeptics or serious birders, the results of the last 20+ years have been mostly abysmal, and I suspect only a skillfully-operated drone or an automatic remote cam focused on a cavity or foraging site may ever likely suffice (also despite 20 years of failure)... though IF an active cavity or foraging site is ever identified, well, then a 1950’s Brownie camera will be quite sufficient ;)

If one does have the desire/dollars to invest in a headcam be sure to factor in all the pertinent variables, besides quality, that may affect your choice (price, weight, ease-of-use, battery-duration, sturdiness, waterproofness, warranty), and there are plenty of other reviews of headcams online (look for truly independent reviews, not just manufacturer-promoted sites), and John suggests several features or specifications to keep in mind.

Meanwhile, the sighting claims for Ivorybills keep popping up across the internet, over and over and over again, and even those from folks who claim adamantly that they KNOW the difference between IBWOs and PIWOs (because of course they’ve seen dozens of PIWOs before), invariably, if they provide a clear enough photo, turn out to be easily ID’d as Pileated. :(  Go figure… (on a sidenote, I keep seeing the speculation made, and believed, that perhaps some IBWOs and PIWOs have cross-bred... NOOOO, these two separate species/genuses do not hybridize).

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-- Book Miscellany --

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(only Ivory-bill-related mention in this post is at very end)

Since abandoning Elon Musk’s demolition of Twitter I have nowhere to mention books anymore… so, will kill some time citing a few here... mentioned 2 Amanda Montell books a bit ago and will now note a range of others I’ve enjoyed in the last 9 months (though few here will share my tastes). All nonfiction:

1)   Went back to read a bunch of Malcolm Gladwell’s compendiums, always delightful (hard to pick out a favorite; perhaps "Outliers"); don’t exactly remember why I had quit reading him long ago.

2)  However my all-time favorite essayist and columnist (the one I agree with, and relish, the most) is passionate Hal Crowther who unfortunately never had a wide national following, possibly because much (but by no means all) of his writing is focused on the South… those are the works I’ve been reading, but still my favorite, and the one to start with if you are unfamiliar with him (and can even find it) is the broader “Unarmed But Dangerous,” from 30 years ago:

https://www.amazon.com/Unarmed-but-Dangerous-Withering-Fundamentally/dp/1563521938

3)   A few months back a friend noted how often in conversation I’d say “I'm pretty stoic about that…” and then informed me that “stoicism” is quite a hot topic these days!  Little did I know… sometimes treated as a philosophy or a religion or just an approach to life, and in any event several good books/intros to it in bookstores these days (won’t pick a favorite, but we need more stoicism these days!).

4)  One of the celebrities now into stoicism is none-other than Jerry Seinfeld, and I be a Seinfeld-groupie… his volume “Is This Anything?” is just a compendium of his stand-up jokes, which without the visuals, the nuances, the voice inflections, I didn’t think could be funny, but surprisingly loved (and laughed at) almost all of it, though weakened toward end. Probably only for Seinfeld fans, though.

5)  In pursuit of psycholinguistic interests, David Shariatmadari’s “Don’t Believe A Word” is a great read for lay readers, even while hitting upon a lot of academic issues in linguistics study.

6)  David Bessis' "Mathematica" -- fantastic new book about mathematics, from an (intuitive) angle I'd never seen before (and including almost no actual number-crunching); but only for definite math-fans.

7)  Eric Barker’s “Barking Up the Wrong Tree” fun read/advice about life and success (somewhat in the style of Malcolm Gladwell).

8)  Steven Pinker's 2021 "Rationality"; pretty basic, straightforward, well-done take from the popular academic writer.

9)  For more comedy relief (if Seinfeld isn’t your thing), oh my gosh, every birder should have Matt Kracht’s “The Field Guide to Dumb Birds of the Whole Stupid World” on hand.

Probably another dozen+ volumes I've started in last 9 months, but if a book doesn't 'grab' me in first 25 pages I don't finish it :(

Will end with just an old link to a bit I posted over a dozen years ago about Tanner's volume "The Ivory-billed Woodpecker":

https://ivorybills.blogspot.com/2011/05/times-and-prices-change.html

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-- Special Day --

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Tomorrow is our big July 4th holiday. Everyone have a fun, safe one!

I’m not really a huge country music fan, but nonetheless a couple of selections for the special day:

…may our grand 250-year experiment not be squandered away this November.

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— Late Night Musings —

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Could certainly be wrong, but don’t foresee much interesting Ivorybill stuff likely happening through summertime, so may be posting miscellany (as a sort of time-and-space filler) until winter comes. 

Here a cult, there a cult, everywhere….

A friend recommended that I read Amanda Montell’s latest book “The Age of Magical Overthinking!.” I did and mostly enjoyed it, but more importantly it led me to her prior work “Cultish” (which I enjoyed even more) since, by coincidence I’d been thinking a bit about cults lately (seems timely) — thinking, and concluding, that cults aren’t just fringe and extreme as we prefer to imagine them in typical simplistic-binary, black-and-white or us-versus-them mentality, but rather they are commonplace, falling all along a spectrum from benign to dangerous/evil — basically, ALL large active groups are cults or at least cultish in gradations, me-thinketh now. Yup, the American Medical Assoc., the American Birding Assoc., NRA, ACLU, Catholic Church, the National Basketball Assoc., Microsoft Corporation, obviously Scientologists and the Republican Party, the American Association of Trombone Players (if there be such a thing), and on and on and on… all cultish to a greater degree than we acknowledge, with their emphasis on certain rules, behavior, beliefs, leaders, standards, viewpoints, etc. taking precedence over the individual. Cults in a sense are more the norm than the exception, of what largely keep society out of anarchy and disarray, holding people in line. The cultishness of any group coincides with the degree to which members forego critical-thinking and ongoing questioning, in favor of accepting things as they want/wish them to be or are told they are… basically letting entrenched biases, desires, predilections (instead of independent analysis), shape one’s thinking, conclusions, decisions... It’s fine to point out how benign many groups are, but there is potential for harm and blind obedience almost any time people gather in groups, crowds, associations, etc. expressing or claiming unison. The so-called "madness of crowds" has often been written about.

Skeptics call we IBWO-backers a cult as well (Jack Hitt, in his best-selling volume, “Bunch of Amateurs”  somewhat painted us that way). I’d dare say, fine, but skeptics too are a cult. And I no longer have a problem seeing us as such…. there are far worse cults one might mingle in! ...Just maybe keep away from the Kool-Aid.

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