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IVORY-BILLS  LiVE???!  ...

=> THE blog devoted to news and commentary on the most iconic bird in American ornithology, the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (IBWO)... and... sometimes other schtuff.
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"....The truth is out there."

-- Dr. Jerome Jackson, 2002 (... & Agent Fox Mulder)

“There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”

-- Hamlet

"All truth passes through 3 stages: First it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as self-evident."

-- Arthur Schopenhauer






Sunday, April 25, 2010

 

-- "Probability Can Bite" --

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A digression down the road of intuition and probability:

http://www.maa.org/devlin/devlin_04_10.html

Addendum: by sheer coincidence (no, we didn't plan it) Bill Pulliam also did a post today dealing with probabilities, and both of us are essentially intimating the same underlying point; i.e. that people's perception of probability is often mathematically fallacious. My link touches on the point in a very general way; Bill much more specifically tries to apply the notion to the IBWO situation:

http://bbill.blogspot.com/2010/04/schroedingers-woodpecker.html
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Comments:
"THE PROBABILITY OF GOD is a book where physicist and risk-analyst Stephen D. Unwin uses Bayesian analysis to conclude that there is a 67% "probability" that God exists."

Seem surprising that this finding (evidence of the existence of a supreme being) didn't get the Creator on the cover of Science. I know the editor who cleared the IBWO paper and cover had a history of birding and was excited about the "rediscovery" but perhaps he was also an atheist.
I guess the question now is which of these (IBWO and God) will next make their presence known.
 
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