-- A Reprieve -- +Addenda

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Not totally unexpectedly, the USFWS has announced a 6-month extension to its consideration of de-listing the Ivory-billed Woodpecker from endangered status. The IBWO was among 23 species scheduled for de-listing around September of this year, barring new evidence/information, and obviously there is enough controversy surrounding the Lord God bird to separate it out for special consideration (I assume the other 22 species will in fact still be de-listed before year’s end):

https://www.fws.gov/press-release/2022-07/service-announces-6-month-extension-final-decision-ivory-billed-woodpecker?fbclid=IwAR0d6PLugrDteydaJtYOsgR1V2YPlfeYSet3QMxUcNHNhw_NVKaDXm-Qdgo

In the announcement, USFWS further opens yet another new 30-day comment period, essentially starting now and running until midnight August 7, 2022. Part of the announcement reads as follows (I’ve bolded some bits):

“The Service is seeking new information during the 30-day reopening, including clear video or photographic evidence of the presence of the ivory-billed woodpecker that can be repeatedly interpreted the same way by independent observers, such as definitive photographic evidence collected by a field observer. Comments provided during the initial proposal and the previous reopening do not need to be resubmitted.”

also: “Information on how to submit comments is available at www.regulations.gov by searching under docket numberFWS‒R4‒ES‒2020‒0109”

Despite asking to avoid it, they will probably receive a number of repetitive, duplicative comments to what they have received already, so do keep in mind they are most interested in NEW and clearcut evidence (it's actually a pretty high bar, buuut, over the entire 6-month period it could happen).

...In other unrelated news, the proprietor of the main IBWO Rediscovered page on Facebook is contemplating taking the group “private” which has pluses and minuses… I s’pose he’ll make a decision soon.

So again, a lot going on, but not a lot of real news! and again, I'll be (pleasantly) surprised if there is much news before next winter. [Added: not clear to me why the agency is doing another 30-day comment period... perhaps just some sort of legal or procedural requirement? when evidence/documentation that arises in the next 4-5 months could clearly influence their final decision; i.e., a photo/video showing up in 35 days is not ignored because it failed to arrive within the 30 day period.]

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ADDENDUM  7/7:

There seems to almost be a pattern to the posts at the Facebook group that appear for awhile and then are later deleted…

(by the way, the group is now at 5900 members; not sure it will ever hit the 6400 figure I had predicted before it may go private (at least on a trial basis).

Matt Courtman will hold another Zoom meeting/chat this coming Monday night (8pm EDT) to update his ongoing search (currently in Tensas NWR, where he claims an encounter at end of June):

https://www.facebook.com/events/2364922253681976?ref=newsfeed

Meanwhile, I’m stiiiiiiiiiill looking for a “skeptic” to do a transcribed interview here at the blog. If interested, let me know (cyberthrush@gmail.com) and I can send along some questions for you to look over.

Ohhh, and hey, Boris Johnson will no longer be PM of Britain.

ADDENDUM2  7/8:

Jeeeeeez, the first 3 new comments are into the USFWS. NOT at all encouraging!

https://www.regulations.gov/document/FWS-R4-ES-2020-0109-0166/comment?sortBy=postedDate&sortDirection=desc

On a side-note, there now seem to be at least 4-5 Facebook groups (not all active, or public) for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker; will be interesting to see how these all shake out, especially in the event that the main one (with 5900 members currently) decides to go private.

ADDENDUM3  7/12:

There are now 14 comments in to the USFWS site, 13 of which are nothing but essentially useless, anecdotal verbal assertions or claims that will carry NO weight (and ought not to)! when the Agency has specifically asked for NEW, CLEAR, PHOTOGRAPHIC evidence... is it that hard to follow directions folks!? Frankly, this is embarrassing and part of why this debate is considered laughable by so many. The one somewhat substantive comment by a poster pertains to the Latta data/evidence which USFWS is no doubt already quite familiar with. Folks are only hurting the case for the IBWO with all these unsubstantiated claims and NON-new evidence. What USFWS wants and needs is something, if not indisputable, at least more clear than anything yet that has been made public. I'll just leave you with an old popular saying, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.” :(

Added...:  ;)

-- Just For Fun --

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The last week has put me in a bad mood (well, a worser mood! ;)... so perhaps time for a little jest:

Occasionally I'm asked what it would take to convince me that Ivory-billed Woodpeckers are in fact extinct. I addressed this question once long ago with a ‘Top Ten’ list. So, maybe a good time to update that:

Top Ten things that might persuade me Ivory-billed Woodpeckers are extinct:

10. In a hastily-called press conference, Matt Courtman announces he has seen 3 Carolina Parakeets and 1 Dodo in the Tensas Wildlife Refuge, but thus far, not a single Ivory-billed Woodpecker.

9.  Donald Trump says he saw an Ivory-billed Woodpecker.

8. A dead Ivory-bill is discovered in the woods with a 45-caliber revolver next to it, and a note reading, "Good-bye cruel world, I have no friends, no future, and dangit no first-growth virgin, beetle-infested, bottomland forest remaining."

7. Cornell and Auburn make a surprise announcement at the next A.O.U. meeting that they have jointly documented a small population of Moas residing deep in the heart of Staten Island (...though the videotape is a tad fuzzy).

6. Little beknownst to northern Yankees, it turns out that constructing and flying paper-mache models of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers has been a long-standing pastime of Southern schoolchildren ever since 1953.

5. An unannounced raid of David Sibley's painting studio by Federal agents finds shelves and shelves and shelves of stuffed Ivory-billed carcasses with time, date, and place of collection meticulously recorded… BUT, none more recent than Sept., 1969.

4. A behavioral field ecologist from a major Ivy League university discovers unexpectedly that the favorite prank of Pileated Woodpeckers (after a few too many fermented berries), is to dress up like an Ivory-bill and go swooping through the woods, screaming "kent-kent-kent" instead of "kuk-kuk-kuk."

3. The FBI discovers that all the hoopla on the Web over the Ivory-bill is nothing more than a highly-organized, targeted Russian disinformation campaign intended to divide and conquer the American people (...AND, it seems to be working!)

2.  Algorithmic analysis proves that 94% of the posters at Facebook’s 'Ivory-bills Rediscovered' site are actually just sock puppets of Mark Zuckerberg.

1. A snowball makes its way through Hell unscathed.

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ADDENDUM 7/3:

[...And for those who don't already know, the word "gullibility" doesn't even exist in the dictionary.]

-- 5400+ Members, And Growing -- +ADDENDUM

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The Facebook Ivory-bill group is straining under the weight of its now 5400+ members, maybe 5500 by the time you finish reading this post 😃 (and plenty of others stop by the site who aren’t even members). Between the repetition and talking in circles, the pseudoscience, sock puppets, and trolling, the hype and lame speculation, the sarcasm, mockery, squabbling, and snark, the spam, biases, inconsistencies, wishful thinking, sundry mumbo-jumbo, naivete or non-credibility, cringy posts, and clumsy, hard-to-follow platform organization, it can be difficult to get through a day of perusing threads! (though there is occasional comic relief!); sometimes I even find comments or an entire thread from 2 or 3 days prior that I totally missed somehow -- and at the current rate of IBWO reports being written, shouldn't be too long before the states with IBWO reports will outnumber those without any (...okay, I kid... slightly; ohhh, and, glory be, even Carolina Parakeets have now been reported by a poster). 

With all that said though, every day somewhere I find at least one interesting comment or thought, even if buried amidst the avalanche of other verbiage (HERE'S another Chuck Hunter comment I enjoyed, if only because it paid tribute to Bill Pulliam (deceased), who's past efforts, and logic, on BirdForum.net and on his own blog in earlier days, have been missed by many of the more recent entrants to this debate. There are of course other interesting comments, pictures, data, links etc. from time to time, and only a small percentage of the 5400 members take a very active part. Understandably, a LOT of lurkers.

The lone Administrator of the site has taken some heat lately for not moderating the group more, but assuming he has a job and a life ;) moderating a large, active Facebook group in a consistent, fair way can be exceedingly difficult.  [Addendum: the lone moderater, Dwight Norris, has now, as of 6/28, put folks on notice that he DOES plan to be a little more 'hands-on' in moderating the group going forward, primarily asking for civility. I sympathize with him.]

And one ought also keep in mind that the whole FB platform was put together by Mr. Zuckerberg primarily for the purpose of capturing eyeballs, not to necessarily capture truth, facts, science, knowledge, reality, or anything else of the like which sometimes seem accidental byproducts. Fantasy, hope, and controversy seem better adapted at capturing eyeballs — with that said, if/when the IBWO is ever documented it will be, with all the false starts, one of the biggest science stories in zoological history… with a lot of explaining to do and a lot of egg-on-the-face to go around.

Anyway, FB is the main thing we have on the Web these days in the way of regular IBWO discussion; it’s just unfortunately sparse of biological or zoological scientists, as a percentage of total members. May not even matter since the two main sides of the debate are so polarized at this point that there is little room for deep “discussion” (indeed many “believers” on the site keep voicing the wish that deniers and skeptics not even take part, or be banned) -- interesting how the internet, which could be a fantastic tool for pulling people together, turns out instead to be perhaps the most powerful engine ever created for deeply polarizing people on virtually any unsettled topic. :((

I'll also reiterate (warn) what I've said for 6 months that we are reaching the point of being ripe or overdue for yet another hoax (forensically, they are usually easily uncovered, but still folks will try). The year is almost half over; will we really get through the rest of the year without one?

Lastly, a recent hot (disagreeable) topic over at FB has been equipment for getting a photo of an IBWO in a brief (flyby) encounter. Even with modern technology, the chance of getting such a photo that is definitive is likely slim and none; spend however much money you want, you are likely to get from useless, crappy, to suggestive but fuzzy and NONdefinitive photos/video of fleeing IBWOs ... SO I'll say for the umpteenth time, these birds must feed (forage) EVERY day, they must enter and leave roostholes EVERY day, and they will spend a significant chunk of a year at, around, or creating nestholes. We only need to identify such sites, then have them monitored closely by a human or an automatic, remote camera, to get the necessary photos (Matt Courtman, I think is stressing this approach in his search, but his is a small team)... such sites may be much higher in the canopies then we often look, but still ought be findable, especially in winter, IF the species exists (admittedly, this approach has repeatedly, and disappointingly, failed in the past, even with Cornell's larger-scale, transect-like search). In the current state of affairs, all the fleeting glances, brief encounters, auditory signs, fuzzy film, and data analysis will not make up for the failure to simply capture the living bird doing things it must do each and every day of each and every month throughout the year, including simply perching on a limb or trunk. 

Anyway, I say all this to impress upon people why skeptics are so entrenched and adamant in their stances -- from their perspective, the excuses, reasons, explanations of believers sound all-too-similar to those who would argue that the moon landings were fake or 9/11 was an 'inside' job -- such folks have counter-explanations (including 'scientific' ones) for almost every argument one can make to say the moon landings were real or Al Queda was fully responsible for 9/11 (...but hey, I don't wanna get into THAT discussion, and no, of course the analogy is not ideal). But one more analogy: when powerball lotteries run there is high anticipation but if there are no winners the $$$ prize simply continues to grow, often massively, with each new contest. So too, the longer this whole debate runs, with each passing year the greater will be the astonishment and scientific amazement (...and indeed 'prizes') if-ever/whenever the IBWO is conclusively confirmed. 

Something akin to “proof” of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (or as one FBer aptly called it, "Schrodinger's Woodpecker") will either appear in the next 20 years… or, NOT. Meanwhile, I suspect that as this year drags on without much solid IBWO news, the FB membership & chatter will at some point plateau (maybe ~6400 members) and then begin declining…. until, maybe, perhaps, just when you've begun to doze off, there is yet another surprise unforeseen announcement. ...always be prepared for a bit of a wild ride.

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ADDENDUM  6/24:

A very nice, new, longish post from Mark Michaels of Project Principalis detailing several of the old, ‘extra’ IBWO reports from areas beyond or tangential to the normally-given range for the species. This is, for obvious reasons, an important and under-emphasized topic, even if many of these reports cannot be verified or further studied:

https://projectprincipalis.com/2022/06/23/oklahoma-one-of-my-comments-on-the-delisting-and-an-additional-recent-report/?fbclid=IwAR0sq0yJQWlP9DkN0uPlSggYU7ZGoIrRuTpNIJoSnri0QninEs_HYJDrPHE

As Mark writes at one point after relating all these reports:

“This might only be of historical interest but for the fact that reports from these seemingly peripheral or 'out of range' locations have continued into the 21^st-century (USFWS 2010, Appendix E). When such claims are made by citizens they are routinely dismissed, if not mocked. There is no way to ascertain how many potentially credible reports from this region have been ignored over decades.”

Indeed, with so many of the 'traditional' haunts of the species having been somewhat scoured over decades (without much success), it is fair to wonder if such a strong-flying, and likely nomadic, species may have simply adapted to habitat (that has been less explored) elsewhere when necessary.

[p.s.... I add this as an Addendum here, in part because Mark linked to it from the Facebook group page.]

— Another Chuck Hunter Posting — +Addenda

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Well, gee, wasn’t planning to post again this soon, but Chuck Hunter now has another superb entry to the IBWO FB page that I'm compelled to pass along:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/posts/5414415795246473/?comment_id=5414482845239768&reply_comment_id=5414735891881130

I had just posted an Addendum to the prior post about Chuck, and then lo-and-behold he adds the above post which aligns virtually 100% with my own view… which is that the Cornell/USFWS work in the Big Woods was the last really good evidence for the IBWO.  The Auburn work and everything else since, while containing plenty of interesting, suggestive elements, also suffers from issues/problems that leave much of it as highly speculative. The notion that keeps getting loosely tossed around that there has been scientific “proof” of IBWOs since the Big Woods study is just patently false. Even members of the Cornell team I suspect would confess to the possibility that the IBWOs they encountered may in fact have been the last 1 or 2 on Earth! — not that that is a likely or probable scenario, but just that it remains a possibility which can’t simply be laid aside.

And I’ll reiterate what I’ve said multiple times before:

IF IBWOs exist in numbers sufficient for reproducing and persisting through these decades the question is not only why do repeated searches following up on credible sightings fail to produce definitive photographic evidence, but more importantly why have remote automatic cameras (that can have mechanical problems, but not the prevalent flaws of human observers) trained on suspected IBWO cavities and foraging sites or flyways (the Big Woods ACONE system) failed, despite millions of frames, to capture even one... single... indisputable photo (made public). The two main explanations are that the species is extinct, or we humans, despite 100s of man-hours of work and study remain ridiculously incompetent at correctly identifying IBWO cavities or foraging work… take your pick… neither a very fun choice (…yeah, a third possibility is that we keep finding such cavities and foraging sites AFTER they are no longer in use, but c’mon now! -- these birds have to forage and enter/leave cavities EVERY single day). Possibly, human activity around such sites, or even the mechanical presence of the cameras, simply scare the birds off, but again, the more time that passes, the more such explanations seem like tenuous pie-in-the-sky.

[With all that said, I continue to believe that IBWOs persist in 3 or more states... but, I fully understand the skepticism, derision, mockery, and sarcasm that gets hurled our way!]

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ADDENDUM  5/31:

small addendum, to say that if you're interested in the IBWO of course you must be interested in the Pileated Woodpecker as well, and I only recently discovered this Facebook group (it's been around for well over a decade) devoted to the PIWO. Some nice photos and videos... so as much as I hate promoting anything Facebookish or Zuckerbergian, here it be...:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/74736493236

ADDENDUM2  6/2:

Just since mentioning 11 days ago that the Facebook IBWO group had 3900 participants it has already grown to over 4700 and counting… on the one hand nice to see this continued, growing interest in the species, but on other hand the ‘discussions’ become increasingly repetitious, erratic, often-superficial, and difficult to follow. :(  ...not sure how much longer it can continue on this trajectory before becoming more problematic than time-worthy. Perhaps some form of greater moderation is needed?

Anyway, on a more fun note, this quite interesting video (of a juvie Pileated caught in a young woman’s hair) has been making the rounds, often in abbreviated form. Check out this 3+ minute version to get the fuller story. Almost evokes memories of “Sonny boy” and J.J. Kuhn, so just maybe THIS is how an IBWO will eventually be documented for good! (LOL).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbmHg6GG46E

ADDENDUM3  6/7:

If you missed it, last evening on Matt Courtman’s Monday night Zoom meeting, David Martin gave a very nice, cautious summation of basic/key information about the IBWO that newbies especially often ask about, consistently emphasizing that what we THINK we know is based on very limited sample size and study; i.e. how much of that 'knowledge' is applicable to IBWOs remaining today is difficult to feel certain about. BTW, Matt’s Zoom meetings for the immediate future will be limited to the first Monday of each month (not weekly as they have been). I presume at some point Martin's talk will be available on YouTube but no idea how soon… Matt’s, ummm, a bit behind at getting these posted.

Hype and speculation continues to swirl, on the Web and in my inbox, about searches or sightings of the species, but again I wouldn’t expect much solid news anytime soon. Perhaps in the fall USFWS will make a decision (or decide to postpone any decision) on de-listing the species.

ADDENDUM4  6/8:

==> INTERVIEW!:  First, I might like to interview a skeptic for a blog post; could be anyone from those who are convinced the species is extinct to a more agnostic sort who simply leans strongly that direction — but should be someone who has followed the whole IBWO debate fairly closely for a long time and is familiar with the arguments. In the distant past I did a number of transcribed “interviews” simply sending out a set of questions to which the respondent sends back their answers. Let me know if possibly interested! (cyberthrush@gmail.com)

Meanwhile, the IBWO Facebook group is now at over 5100 members; impressive to watch the rapid growth of participation over there (though with that said, only a limited percentage appear to be experienced ornithologists or birders).

And thanks to all who keep sending me tidbits via email, most of which I’m already aware of, though some of the background or backchannel stuff is helpful or new. If I don’t respond to something that you think calls for a response don’t hesitate to nudge me again. I’ll reiterate though that the vast majority (indeed, almost all) of pics/videos/audio sent my way are unlikely to get a positive response unless it is fairly clearcut, or I think is good enough to be of interest to skeptics.

-- Noise Versus Signal (...I Read It All So You Don’t Have To) :( -- +ADDENDA

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Nothing too notable to report from here; unlikely to be much news during the summer, unless it pertains to something from last winter that just now gets publicized/reported. Short of the Project Principalis work, making its way (in some form) into a reputable journal, I'm still not expecting much news prior to end of year. So just another ramble....

A lot of readers to the blog go back a very long way, and only check back here periodically for  anything new to look into. They don’t follow all the IBWO-related miscellany going on around the Web, primarily on social media (very little being written up regularly in scientific circles). Plenty of loose articles/commentary/podcasts also around the Web stemming from the Project Principalis paper too. The most active of the 'social sites' now is Facebook, with one major, rapidly-growing IBWO FB group currently over 3900 members and counting (I credit Matt Courtman in large part for the growth of that site, though many contribute, and Matt doesn’t even post that often, nor run the site). But the more and faster it grows, the more that many of the discussions/threads turn into daily trainwrecks. I HAVE little choice but to follow the site myself for the worthwhile tidbits that arise, but hard to recommend it unconditionally to others, as it gets slathered with a lot of misleading or unconfirmed info, frustrating repetition, old and uncertain info, weak logic, loose speculation, sketchy science, bias, and cringeworthy postings, etc. that can easily lead new people (in particular) astray.  Additionally, at that site as well as others, IBWO sightings are (as predicted) getting reported virtually every week -- some are from decades ago, and others far more recent, but few have the detail or credibility to be taken very seriously, or come from experienced birders. But then everything the Ivory-bill touches seems to get mushy :(( -- with that said, though, I'll refer folks to this more interesting, lengthy post that demonstrates the sort of detail needed:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/5379507862070600/

IBWO expert Chuck Hunter** was among those drawn in to comment on the above report, and he doesn't often participate in Ivory-bill Web commentary. (I might add that David Martin, formerly of the IBWO Researchers Forum is also participating in the Facebook group, where even Don Kimball, likewise formerly of IBWO.net, has previously commented.)

In any event, I keep reading the online stuff so you don’t have to! ;) … unless of course you want to.  As Nate Silver would say, just be careful of the noise versus the signal out there.

On a side-note, someone asked me awhile back which states I believed IBWOs might exist in (after I'd mentioned believing the species was extant in at least 3 states), so I made a quick list. Probably most folks would put Louisiana and Florida at the top of such a list (as do I), then it gets a little more murky and subjective. But my own, for-fun-and-controversy, continued list in order of probability is:

3)  Mississippi

4)  Arkansas

5)  Georgia

6)  Alabama

7)  Tennessee

8)  Texas

9)  southeastern Missouri

10)  S. Carolina

11)  southern Illinois

12) N. Carolina

13) Kentucky

(...and I don't restrict IBWO probability to just 3 of these, but 3 at a minimum)

Finally, Matt Courtman is concentrating on the Tensas Wildlife Refuge in the initial weeks of his small, organized search for IBWOs in Louisiana (...or wherever else it takes him), and seems to be focusing on finding cavities or foraging sites... which again, seem unlikely to be findable at this (leaf-out) time of year. His passion for the bird is inspiring others and he continues to do Monday evening Zoom meetings (8pm EDT) on the subject, including urging skeptics and deniers to come online and debate with him over the evidence. Unfortunately (to sound like a broken record again), the impasse between 'believers' and non-believers over what constitutes good science or logic is irreconcilable without definitive photographic evidence -- the current level of argumentation could easily continue for another 20 years unresolved, getting us nowhere... and none of us want that (...indeed, several of us will be extinct in 20 years! ;)).

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ADDENDUM 5/26:

In a bit of additional news, Matt Courtman reports (on FB) that his ($12,000) is the only reward currently being offered for information leading to documentable evidence of living Ivory-billed Woodpeckers. The old Nature Conservancy reward of $50,000 has apparently been withdrawn, and I believe there was also previously a separate $10,000 reward (perhaps specific to Arkansas?) which is also defunct. 

Hate to nitpick over words, but Matt's announcement says in part “…we must find an active Ivory-bill roost cavity… in a tree where a living Ivory-billed Woodpecker makes its home. The Louisiana Wilds will pay a $12,000 reward to anyone who leads us to a tree that has an Ivory-bill living in it.” This makes it sound as if someone simply finds an IBWO foraging spot where manual monitoring, or an automatic camera, easily produces the necessary, definitive evidence of existence, they may not be eligible for reward, since it is NOT a roost nor live-in cavity. [Matt, being an ex-lawyer, I would tend to take his words pretty literally]

The old reward, during the Big Woods search, more generally stated that the reward would be proffered to an individual “…leading a project scientist to a living Ivory-billed Woodpecker at a nesting, roosting, or foraging site.”

Of course the monetary reward will not be the biggest reward for finding the IBWO, and even to the extent it bears importance, any individual locating IBWOs will have opportunities to make a lot more than $12,000 through other means should they wish to.

ADDENDUM2 5/28:

** Someone wrote to ask who “Chuck Hunter” was… so for any who don’t know, Chuck is a long-time USFWS biologist who was integral to the prior Big Woods (and beyond) search for the IBWO, and is likely the most expert current individual on the species. In the past, perhaps because of his position, he rarely commented on social media, or even in public, on IBWO matters, so it is fabulous to see him participating in his thoughtful, cautious, careful, and knowledgeable way in the discussion on FB of all places. (His own FB page is HERE, though his Ivory-bill posts aren’t listed there.)

Perhaps he has a book on the way, or is just tired of sitting on the sidelines, or knows of new evidence coming along, or just trying to assist in preventing his own Agency from de-listing the species, but whatever the reason very glad indeed to see him adding his considerable input!

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-- Heading Toward Summer --

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 Generally, I hope to post this summer (maybe remainder of year) primarily only when there is something truly significant regarding ongoing searches or new evidence (and not anticipating that will be very often)… but, will occasionally touch base on other matters:

1)  The National Aviary pre-print has received very widespread coverage in the popular press, and am surprised it has not had more extensive, detailed attention in places like BirdForum.net, BirdChat, ID Frontiers, or other listservs; there’s been some attention and criticism, just not as much of a deep-dive as one might expect (indeed, probably as much mockery/sarcasm on social media as serious discussion). Similarly, there must be at least a half-dozen significant birders/ornithologists, who have not weighed in on the paper. Again, don’t know if all this relative silence is because they are mulling over the research (perhaps even busy writing a counter-response to it, though not likely unless it makes it into a journal), or because they find the whole subject so preposterous at this point as to be unworthy of a response???  I’ll reiterate missing Bill Pulliam’s voice (deceased), as he would’ve undoubtedly had his own analysis of it.

There has been some quickie responses and back-and-forth at the main Facebook Ivory-bill site, where things are rarely resolved. Now with over 2900 followers that site is taking on the flavor of former BirdForum threads from years ago, which often devolved into food fights. On the good side, it’s nice to see greatly increased interest in the IBWO, and good also to see skeptics come on board the site (which at one time was largely believers preaching to the choir, but now gets at least some varied views and pushback to a lot of shallow ideas); on the downside, the crappy FB platform makes the discussions very disjointed and difficult to follow in a logical manner. And with so many new people coming on board the redundancy/repetition can be tiresome; same issues, questions, thoughts, ideas, debates, etc. etc. continually being re-addressed; sometimes leaving a feeling of walking endlessly in circles and getting nowhere. But for all the chaff and rehashed material one must follow the site for the occasional nuggets that do pop up.

2)  Re-iterating again that the flurry of recent IBWO publicity is generating lots of new claims and old reports (almost every week in social media!) from inexperienced observers, with little credibility, (while granting, anything is possible). As I emphasized before, the downside of all this fresh fervor (usually going nowhere), is to convert more and more agnostic folks into skeptics; so just be judicious in what you take seriously out there. It can be a minefield!

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— A Li'l Follow-up to the Project Principalis Pre-print — +Addenda

 ——————————————————                                             

  

I need to just go ahead and post this before it becomes unwieldy (have already whacked a third of it away, opting for more general and less detailed analysis):

Reaction to the Project Principalis paper has fallen largely along pretty predictably-entrenched lines. I guess no surprise, though honestly I was a bit taken aback by the speed and divergency of opinions. Auburn’s Geoff Hill was quick out of the gate to call the research virtually conclusive of IBWO presence… for which he received a lot of pushback… and as someone highly-invested in seeing the species documented Dr. Hill’s view and objectivity will naturally be questioned. Other long-time believers similarly spoke well of the work. A couple of somewhat more centrist takes came from evolutionary (and sometimes controversial) biologist Jerry Coyne in his blogpiece:

https://whyevolutionistrue.com/2022/04/11/is-the-ivory-billed-woodpecker-still-with-us/

…and also from British press The Guardian:

https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/13/ivory-bill-woodpecker-not-extinct-researchers-say

There have been many other moderately pro and con takes that I won’t bother to cite (and will no doubt be many more) -- one reason I whacked a third of what I had written is because I was trying to cover all the commentaries and opinions coming along, but there were just toooo many, so moved to a more general overview.

Swiftly there were a slew of critiques of the work, from those dedicated to the denier camp — while I agree there are potential problems with the presentation, I was still surprised by the quickness and certainty of some of the attacks. But there you go… that’s where we’re at. The only positive thing I can say in that regard is that there are also several major IBWO critics who I've not yet seen come forward with an opinion… does that mean they are mulling it over or that they find some value in the work… or do they just not care any longer and wish the topic would fade away? Time will tell.

A lot of the criticism/debate, quite naturally, is focused on the videos and stills in the paper, with remarkably different interpretations of what is being seen (what is a clear 'saddle' to some is an artifact or space to others, and on and on). Several of the criticisms of the seeming ‘saddle’ on the bird(s) are simply giving alternative explanations of how such an artifact could appear in a photo, but the problem with that is that the saddle appears to move right along with the bird as it moves in the video, just as one would expect if it was a real part of the bird. Like the Luneau video, these photos/video turn out to be little more than Rorschach tests for whatever your opening predisposition or entrenched position is, and both sides of the debate end up utterly aggravated.

It is unfortunate that some are simply ignoring all the other evidence recorded here and seeing the research as an entire collection of data instead of simply a couple of new videos (despite the title stressing "multiple lines of evidence"). The authors only briefly mention sightings and auditory recordings, but those who have followed their work for the last 10 years know they have previously reported several of both (but knowing the unconvincing nature of sightings and audio chose not to focus on them here, but yes, they exist). Indeed, we've reached a point where almost all evidence is automatically de-valued except for clear and credible photographic imagery. Further many make the argument that 20 pieces of weak evidence for a claim is no better than 1 piece of weak evidence... although you might think of it like a criminal trial where 1 piece of circumstantial evidence would never convict, but 20 bits of circumstantial evidence might do it.

Since the arguments are once again likely irresolvable I won’t even get into the endless back-and-forth of specific points, but only reiterate that I believe the current work is the best overall evidence I've seen in over 10 years. Unfortunately, I suspect no (respected) journal will take this paper because of their sheer fear of anything IBWO-related, the topic being radioactive! I do wonder what additional and even better data Project P. might have by the time any acceptance would come along many months from now.

Honestly, this whole saga is beginning to feel like an instance of the old Peanuts cartoon where Charlie Brown thinks he’s going to at last kick the football that Lucy is holding, only to have it always snatched away at the last moment. ;) 

Before signing off I can’t help but mention it brought a small grin to my face to see these birds cavorting near the top of a large hardwood tree. My contention for some time has been, that in areas trafficked by humans, IBWOs have likely become high-arboreal birds, nesting, roosting, feeding, and hangin-out their entire lives in the upper third of the forest canopy, rarely (if ever) coming to the ground or even the midway point of trees. That is the easiest explanation I have for why the species is so difficult to locate, see, or photograph, and the vast majority of sightings are of birds in flight, not perched birds. Photo ops will require a telephoto lens or an automatic camera placed (and serviced) by a climber high in the canopy… or finally, alternatively, a drone overhead (as the La. team is already employing). An old birding adage says “Look up!” — it certainly applies to IBWO searchers. The Project P. birds were frolicking just as I envision IBWOs doing, oblivious to the mundane human world beneath them.

Lastly, I'll note that for any who wish to follow further commentary on this paper there is a handy place on the bioRxiv page where you simply give your email and they will automatically send you “alerts” of future changes/comments/links related to the preprint.

In the short term, I'm not sure how much more I'll address this work, as once again I see a lot of sturm und drang coming down the pike, but no likelihood of resolution. [with that said, there are about a half-dozen ornithological figures who I'm still waiting to see weigh in on the work, and, if they should that might motivate another post.]

[ NOTE:  After hearing from a couple of emailers, I've done some slight editing above, and added back in some lines I had previously cut from the original version.]

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ADDENDUM 4/16:

I'll add this new article which covers matters a bit more broadly than most of the pieces I'm seeing lately:

https://www.animals24-7.org/2022/04/16/is-the-ivory-billed-woodpecker-declared-extinct-five-times-still-with-us/?fbclid=IwAR2bRCo03qWdcg7L0X1-6fo61-PmLkKpd3-GYvQVfnVj-imlZfFHrlKAFt4

ADDENDUM 4/17:

Just feel a need to say this: Back when the USFWS recommendation/controversy was all over the news I warned that the next several months would likely see a new flurry of IBWO sighting claims — with publicity always comes more bogus reports.

And now with the new research published getting widely reported I’ll state that warning yet again — am already seeing the uptick in unfounded claims to my inbox and around social media. Pleeease, if you’re not an experienced birder, do NOT bother sending me a claim unless you know how to write up a very detailed observational account, or it is accompanied by a photo or video. [I think I've already counted over a dozen claims in the last 2+ weeks that were accompanied by photos, and were clearly Pileateds.]

ADDENDUM 4/18:

What we really need now is the return of "Ivorybill Septic" to add a little levity to things! (for those of you with a good memory, who have followed this saga since say 2006) ;)  …while I’m mulling over what aspect to look at next.  Are you out there I.S., perhaps in Colorado or Washington? I need your input; the array of opinions I’m getting in email are all over the map.

Am tempted to re-address this whole crazy confusion between IBWOs and Pileated Woodpeckers, two species that really are NOT similar in detail at all (different head patterns, different backs, different ventral and dorsal wings, different bills), and yet in cursory looks come off with an odd gestalt similarity (as the same colors are present); also tempted to refer readers back to my post (and examples) some months ago focused on visual illusions:

https://ivorybills.blogspot.com/2021/12/seeing-is-not-necessarily-believing.html

....and yet, paradoxically, nothing gives me more confidence of the species' continued persistence then the sheer number of identifications leftover from experienced, knowledgeable observers in multiple locales over the years, even when the plenitude of weak and superficial claims are tossed out.

— Que Sera Sera :( —

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I won’t go into loads of detail nor get into back-and-forth arguments (which I consider a time-waste) about this, but last night’s presentation of newly-hyped possible IBWO video was wholly unconvincing… and worse.

To my shock, it came from South Carolina (Feb. of this year), the Southeastern state I would have least expected an IBWO video to come from right now (even though there is some good habitat there), but I won’t get into that discussion either.

Last December I predicted here on the blog that there might likely be an IBWO hoax this year, and… folks don’t want to hear this… but I won’t mince words in saying that my default position until I know more about the videographers and other context and specifics here, is that this could well be a hoax or prank; it has several earmarks, and so many aspects that make no sense. 

The video and resolution is poor with 2 birds in the background that I don’t believe are large woodpeckers, but smaller birds. The primary focus of interest is a moving object in a tree cavity, which is being passed off as a bird bill, but could be another creature or object. And IF a beak I presume a pileated (which can even be heard to call at one point on the tape). The resolution throughout is too weak to draw firm conclusions, and there is a suspicious lack of transparency with the individuals submitting the video, who seem only willing to answer certain questions put to them or take limited actions that might be suggested (they were not part of the presentation, and I believe the person presenting has never met the South Carolinians but solely interacted with them through email/phone -- no idea if he's done any sort of basic background check on them that might raise red flags; not that hard to do).

The cavity, tree, habitat, don’t look right for an Ivory-bill claim, coming from a "rural" but not deep woods locale (though by itself that does not rule out any possibility) and the videographers sound incredibly amateurish on tape (and not knowledgeable of birds or IBWOs), even claiming that the bird has returned to this location for 3 years in a row… and yet this is the best video (and under 2 mins.) they have attained in all that time, with the birds using a nest or roosthole mind you. They seem to have zero comprehension of the significance surrounding this bird. We are told there is an “interesting backstory” (which I would love to hear) to their highly secretive claim… but, that too could easily be totally concocted. There’s nothing here that gives me any confidence, but plenty of further disconcerting tidbits I won't even mention. IBWO believers always resent the analogies to Bigfoot claims, but this video is very much on a par with poor Bigfoot videos. In short, whether a prank or honest mistake, I give no credence to the claim, unless further analysis and context causes me to change my view, and I don’t expect to discuss it further; discussion will just lend more red meat to skeptics (and, sad to say, given its origins, this could even be a skeptic-produced video and backstory solely intended to embarrass 'believers').

Lastly, it was disappointing to see John Fitzpatrick (retired from Cornell) who was present, almost bend himself into a pretzel trying not to speak too harshly of the video.  I don’t think he helped his credibility here, but he will have to speak for himself. Had this video been sent directly to Cornell with so little backstory or context, I doubt they would have taken it seriously for more than 15 minutes. Others present, who likewise have some needed critical thinking skills and  scientific rigor, also refrained from much serious comment.

I want to be clear, by the way, that Matt Courtman’s group (who presented the video) are not in any way participants of such a hoax, if such it be, only victims of it. With EVERY IBWO claim the first thing that must be ruled out (if the subject is not immediately identifiable as a pileated or other bird) is hoax, and I don't see it having been ruled out here. Of course, after the excitement of the Project Principalis release this is discouraging. I would be happy to learn that the South Carolinians involved are at least sincere even if mistaken in their claims, if that is the case, rather than being deceitful. After all these years though I can't just ignore my radar, nor the smell test, unless forthcoming better analysis and answers point another way.

I was actually hoping to say slightly more (in a positive vein) about the Project Principalis evidence today, but will leave that for another time.

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— "IBWO Truthers" —

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Tonight, Matt Courtman’s group will be reviewing another purported recent IBWO video (I believe from a state adjacent to La., and different from the latest Project Principalis release, but I may be incorrect) on his interactive Zoom podcast (Apr. 11) at 8pm EDT. You can link to it from his page:

https://www.facebook.com/MissionIvorybill

I’m still not expecting a particularly interesting summer… but, an interesting week, yes it has been! 

Have already seen a fair amount of misreporting and knee-jerk reaction (as well as mockery) to the newest evidence, but that could be expected in our world of entrenched views... sigh. And increasingly, I see the term “ibwo truthers” employed to label we believers… normally a term used dismissively, referring to certain (often conspiracy-minded) advocates on a variety of subjects, but oddly I actually kinda like the label applied to those of us who think this species is extant… because, afterall, truth is indeed what we ultimately want established, and find lacking.

So, "IBWO Truthers" we be! Wear it proudly. ;))

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— Finally… new evidence — +Addenda

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New from Mark Michaels/Steve Latta’s Project Principalis group (Louisiana) finally some evidentiary work I find intriguing enough to pass along (for perhaps the first time in 10+ years!). The non peer-reviewed pre-print is here (including photos):

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.04.06.487399v1.full.pdf

I especially like the focus on automatic camera (and drone) photos, which I’ve long felt were, short of human monitoring of a nest or roost hole, the evidence needed (sighting and audio evidence is also mentioned in the paper but not dwelled upon). There are other various elements of the paper I especially like (and some other elements I’d be pretty cautious about), but won’t detail that here, so readers can adjudge for themselves (besides I need to read parts of the paper over another one or two more times for certain details), and I don't know when or if full publication will come.

The evidence is once again NOT definitive or conclusive, but intriguing, which one almost hates to say given the history of all the controversial "intriguing" evidence that has come before. At least on a first reading this is better than that, but easy to imagine some of the objections that may be forthcoming. I hate that we continue to move along in the IBWO debate at an incremental snail's pace awaiting a truly conclusive photo/video/encounter, but this work is encouraging.

I assume this also is the new evidence that will be up for discussion at Matt Courtman’s coming Monday night IBWO podcast. [see note #1 below]

[It's possible(?) I'll add addenda to this post at a later point.]

[sorry, just realized that the PDF I linked to above does not contain links for the "supplementary" videos; for those, find the links on the original bioRxiv page:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.04.06.487399v1.supplementary-material ]

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ADDENDUM 1:

After re-reading several times, a few miscellaneous things to note (…there are also several things I WON’T address just to avoid the argumentation and vitriol that might follow!):

1)  I originally assumed that Matt Courtman’s coming Monday night IBWO discussion would involve a claim by a different individual in a different state (not Louisiana), but upon the timing of this Project Principalis release just automatically (above) switched to assuming this would be the evidence coming under review. However, various dates and other matters don’t line up, so am back to thinking the Monday night discussion may well be about yet a different claim (which would be interesting to have 2 such back-to-back claims arising so close together; the alternative possibility is that the Monday talk centers around evidence still from the Louisiana group but too recent to have made its way into this paper).

2)  Just want to note, for any unaware of it, that “bioRxiv” while an open access, non-peer-reviewed, non-edited journal, is NOT on the level of the many (not all) open access journals that have in recent years besmirched scientific publication. It is simply a free preprint-server for biology, very similar to respected arxives that serve many other scientific disciplines. And Project Principalis was wise to file the paper here, and not wait for the interminable months that acceptance in an appropriate publication would have taken — even at that, the evidence being reported here is mostly months to years old. [They are attempting to have the piece published, but IBWO papers can be difficult to find a taker.]

3)  There is a fair amount of speculation in this paper, as is always the case, of necessity, with any Ivory-bill commentary because we truly know so little about the species with certainty, so much information being drawn from such tiny sample sizes — and there is a strong tendency on ‘believers’ parts to accept past assumptions when it suits our purposes, and argue against them when it doesn’t. So I don’t doubt that critics will find much here to yawn at and shrug as weak claims. But some of the photos, from trail cameras and videos are powerful, in seeming to show a large woodpecker with a white saddleback; in fact better than that, and unlike almost any prior evidence, showing multiple woodpeckers with diagnostic clues (…even with that said, I realize alternative explanations may yet be offered, and further film analysis will be needed). As someone who has been discouraged with the trajectory of the debate ever since the closing down of the Cornell and Auburn searches (even while still believing the species persisted), this is as bright a light as I’ve seen. 

I'll note that I am viewing the paper’s pics on a 7-year-old 13” laptop screen (AND even then am intrigued), and I imagine those with larger desktop screens will have a better view (there are some things the authors claim to see, which I can’t make out on my screen, and certainly don't recommend viewing these pics on a mobile device).

4)  Lastly, I wish Bill Pulliam was around to see this work, and swap ideas about it; I think, overall, it would’ve brought a grin to his grizzly face….

----------------------------------------

— Short Notice (Haney podcast) —

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There are now plenty of Dr. Chris Haney podcasts/presentations available on YouTube, but if you’ve entirely missed him or want to see him live there will be an interactive Zoom podcast tonight 8pm EDT (h/t to Matt Courtman):

https://www.facebook.com/events/372903291373714/?ref=newsfeed

I love Chris’s book which I reviewed HERE…. with that said, I do think he can be a bit heavy-handed with the cognitive blunders of ‘denialists’ while going a little soft on the cognitive weaknesses of ‘believers,’ but always enjoyable to hear speak, and I agree with the vast majority of his points (and his book ought be read as well for the sheer scope of IBWO history and information it affords). A good way to end the week.

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— Just Sayin’ (for now) —

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To some of you who have sent along somewhat similar questions (just in different orders) and who I haven't gotten directly back to, the answers, for now, are, “no, no, and no (BUT maybe), and MS. 396??”  

...ohhh, and BTW, GO Tar Heels!

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-- No News --

 __________________________________

Headed into April and no news to report from here, except that breeding season is largely over, leaf-out is fully underway, and chances of documenting Ivory-bills probably goes rapidly downhill from here until next winter arrives. Pretty distracted by other world events these days, and not expecting much IBWO news for May either, though one never knows, and always have a few other things jotted down possibly worth touching upon.

Lastly, on a side-note (because I see so many claims for brief IBWO sightings each year coming from untrained eyes all across social media) I'll just say that I believe the instance of partially leucistic or piebald birds (pileateds, crows, ravens, vultures, ducks, anhingas, etc.) is a more serious problem in this arena than is acknowledged. 

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